Two and Half Front War Scenario

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ramana
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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby ramana » 23 Jan 2018 23:44

Think like the opposition.

Main thrusts:
For Pak they want Kashmir and the way is through Punjab.
They want Kargil as that cuts of Siachen.

For China they will attack in Ladakh and Dokhlam area to cut off North East.

They could attack via Myanmar, Neutrality will be set aside.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby nam » 24 Jan 2018 00:01

Akshay Kapoor wrote:Is Nam’s scenario feasible. Can Pak attack with significant Chinese formations in Western Theatre ? How many. One div, 2 divs ? more ? This is one of the questions I listed in my list of requirements.


I would say at-least 2 PLA Mechanized Group Army. Overall 6-8 divisions.

Gives them 4 axis of attack. 2 PA Strike corps & 2 PLA GAs. Two towards Punjab+Haryana, one towards Rajasthan, another towards Gujarat.

If there is a breakout on the Rajasthan front, they have the option of going towards Gujarat or Punjab.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby VinodTK » 24 Jan 2018 00:06

^^^ If the above seniors play out and the 6 eastern states are lost along with parts of Punjab and and whole of Kashmir; on the human front 500,000 army and para militaty forces will be trapped in Kashmir and god only knows how many troops will be trapped in the 6 eastern states.

Option One
When will the Nukes come out or what would be India's read-line to go for an all out strike.

Option Two
"Past performance is not an indicator of future performance"
History will repeat, Pakistan / China will use our trapped troops as a bargaining chips and force a ceasefire on India.
India will agree and claim that it got its troops back and the lost teritory was not importent

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby nam » 24 Jan 2018 00:08

ramana wrote:
They could attack via Myanmar, Neutrality will be set aside.


I considered this against the value of western front. They can take over the NE region, however they will be reaching the choke point. "Chicken neck."

Unless they take over Northern Bangladesh, they cannot come in to the heartlands. However these areas are not of any major economic value.

Morever, it not be a classic blitz offensive given the mountains & forest. And they will be on hostile territory with a active Burmese insurgency.
Last edited by nam on 24 Jan 2018 00:28, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby nam » 24 Jan 2018 00:17

There has to be one major axis of attack. It cannot be IB, LAC & Burma at the same time. There aren't enough troops.

If the attack is across IB, then LAC & Burma will he holding action. Burma may not even be considered.

If across LAC, then Pak needs to provide it Mountains divisions and it's Strike Corps to form a hold on IB. LAC will eat troops.

If only across Burma, then PLA+PA mountain units needs a holding position on LAC( with some offense). There cannot be a Armour thrust across Burma. But PLA would require large number of troops to carryout this action.

The objective is destruction of Indian warfighting & economic capability.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby Rudradev » 24 Jan 2018 02:27

And here's the problem.

First we must realistically assess: what extent of degradation of warfighting capability can the PLA inflict on IA, even with PA fighting on its side, in a purely conventional war? And what extent of destruction of economic capability?

JFS attacks (conventional) can only do so much against hardened industrial assets. Whatever they destroy, we can recover from deeper in the hinterland and out of their range. Airstrikes will prove costly to them, they simply do not have the capacity (available PLAAF + PAF) to achieve uncontested air superiority over Indian skies. Meanwhile think of the boost in Indian national will, and hence productivity, when a threat such as this becomes manifest. Destroy our economy? I don't think so. Set it back, yes, but in a purely conventional war they will both bleed rivers (Pakistan, probably to an irrecoverable extent).

How about degrading our warfighting capability on our soil? Even with a total of four PLA group armies and two Paki strike corps, how much firepower can they amass and employ with impunity? We're talking about heartland India, densely populated, where (let alone IA/IAF) an invading force will face resistance from lakhs of police, homeguards, CRPF, CISF, BSF, NCC, territorial army, even private citizens at every step of the way. At most they can achieve local dominance in areas where they commit in force, and as long as we're nimble in manoeuvre, whatever land they temporarily occupy can be traded for time. Ultimately they will be encircled and degraded faster than they can hope to degrade our military assets. We have the formidable advantage of being the defending party, and the deeper they penetrate, the stronger that advantage becomes.

Not to minimize the destruction that will be caused, economic and physical and to human life... that will be massive. But not irrecoverable, not for India, not for long, not at all.

Forget all the above. Let's say they actually overcome the defender's advantage and IA/IAF through serious setbacks (or whatever) fails to stop them rampaging and wreaking havoc.

If it looks like they have cut us off from a part of our territory irrevocably, and are attempting to hold it permanently and redraw the map of India... nuclear war.

If it looks like they are causing massive economic damage to urban and industrial centres that may prove irrecoverable... nuclear war.

If they start inflicting massive damage to the environment or natural resources... nuclear war.

If they start indiscriminately killing civilians and destroying farmlands and settlements... nuclear war.

So yes, to model a conflict meaningfully we HAVE to look harder at war aims. To my mind, a joint PA-PLA invasion across LOC/IB can only be a feint to cut off J&K... NOT a move to threaten Punjab/Haryana or Delhi. For this relatively limited aim, I do not see PLA being willing to commit multiple Group Army or Fighter Division sized assets to Pakistan proper.

I think we can categorize Pak/Chini war aims as:

MAXIMAL
-Permanently occupy parts of J&K, HP, Uttarakhand, Sikkim, northern WB and/or Arunachal Pradesh, adjusting LOC/LAC in their strategic favour
-Draw India into a fight on "contested territory" (per the UN definition), and inflict a humiliating conventional defeat on the forces we commit.
-Draw India into a fight on foreign soil (e.g. Myanmar, Nepal, Bhutan) and inflict a humiliating conventional defeat on the forces we commit.
MINIMAL

That's it. Anything above that MAXIMAL limit, such as rampaging through Punjab or the Gangetic Valley or Brahmaputra Valley south of Walong, is guaranteed to lead to nuclear war, and they are not willing to risk that. Not even the Pakis. Just my considered opinion.

Now the question becomes: what of the OPPORTUNITY offered? What would India's war aims be, when a two-front conflict is launched against us by Pakistan and China? Simply beat them back and hold our own? Or something more?

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby ramana » 24 Jan 2018 03:40


Rudradev
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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby Rudradev » 24 Jan 2018 03:54

^ Didn't want to respond here and potentially derail the present discussion. Have done so in Red Menace thread.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby nachiket » 24 Jan 2018 05:23

Rudradev wrote:IAF (per Wikipedia)

CENTRAL COMMAND: 7 Sqns fixed-wing combat aircraft, 1 Sqn fixed-wing transport/utility aircraft, 1 Helo Sqn

Agra: 1 sqn Avro 748
Bareilly: 2 sqn MKIs, 1 sqn Chetaks
Gorakhpur: 1 sqn Jags, 1 sqn Mi-17
Maharajpur: 2 sqn Mirage 2000s, 1 sqn MiG-21, 1 sqn MiG-27

EASTERN COMMAND: 7 Sqns fixed-wing combat aircraft, 2 Sqns fixed-wing transport/utility aircraft, 9 Helo Sqns

Bagdogra: 1 sqn Chetaks
Chabua: 1 sqn Mi-8, 1 sqn Mi-17
Gorakhpur: 1 sqn Mi-8
Guwahati: 1 sqn Avro 748, 1 sqn Mi-8
Hasimara: 2 sqn MiG-27
Jorhat: 1 sqn An-32, 1 sqn Mi-17
Kalaikunda: 1 sqn Mig-27
Kumbhirgram: 1 sqn Mi-8
Mohanbari: 2 sqn Mi-17
Tezpur: 2 sqn MiG-21, 1 sqn Chetaks

[removed 8th Mtn Div]

RD Guru, allow me to fix some of these,

Agra has an An-32 (12sq), IL-78 (refuelers) (78sq) and the Phalcons.
Maharajpur/Gwalior has 3 Mirage 2000 squadrons (1,7 and 9 - understrength) + TACDE. No Mig-21 or 27 squadrons are based here.
Gorakhpur - 2 squadrons of Jags + 1 Mi-17

EAC
Baghdogra - 1 Chetak + 1 Mi-17 sq
Chabua - No.102sq (Su-30MKI)
Guwahati - 118HU (Mi-17)
Jorhat - 2 An-32 sq + 1 Mi-17
Kalaikunda - IIRC the Mig-27s here have been decommissioned. Not sure if there is a Su-30 squadron from elsewhere relocated here.
Tezpur - 2 squadorns of Su-30 (No. 2 and No. 106) + 1 Cheetah/Chetak squadron.

Data from BR, scramble.nl and news reports and could be a bit old. Deejay saar or someone more knowledgeable might know the latest.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby Rudradev » 24 Jan 2018 05:42

Nachiket-ji, thanks for the corrections. The initial data was from Wikipedia so probably not the most recent.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby Rudradev » 24 Jan 2018 06:03

Updating the list of Indian assets available for use against China, with Nachiket ji’s inputs:



NORTHERN COMMAND, Udhampur:


XIV Corps, headquartered at Leh, Jammu and Kashmir

3rd Infantry Division headquartered at Leh
U/I Artillery BDE


EASTERN COMMAND, Kolkata

23 Infantry Division

III Corps - Dimapur, Nagaland

57th Mountain Division - Leimakhong
56th Mountain Division – Zakhama
2nd Mountain Division – Dibrugarh
U/I Artillery BDE

IV Corps - Tezpur, Assam

5th Mountain Division - Bomdila
21st Mountain Division - Rangia
71st Mountain Division – Missamari

XXXIII Corps - Siliguri, West Bengal

17th Mountain Division - Gangtok
20th Mountain Division - Binnaguri
27th Mountain Division - Kalimpong
U/I Artillery BDE


XVII Corps - Siliguri, West Bengal

U/I Aviation BDE
U/I Engineer BDE
U/I Air Defence BDE
U/I Infantry BDE
U/I Infantry BDE
U/I Artillery BDE
U/I Artillery BDE
Armour Regiment
Armour Regiment
Armour Regiment
U/I Mountain Division
59 Mountain Division
72 Mountain Division


IAF (per Wikipedia)

CENTRAL COMMAND: 7 Sqns fixed-wing combat aircraft, 3 Sqn fixed-wing transport/utility aircraft, 1 Helo Sqn

Agra: 1 sqn An-32, 1 sqn IL-78, 1 sqn Phalcons AWACS
Bareilly: 2 sqn MKIs, 1 sqn Chetaks
Gorakhpur: 2 sqn Jags, 1 sqn Mi-17
Maharajpur: 3 sqn Mirage 2000s

EASTERN COMMAND: 6 Sqns fixed-wing combat aircraft, 2 Sqns fixed-wing transport/utility aircraft, 8 Helo Sqns

Bagdogra: 1 sqn Chetaks, 1 sqn Mi-17
Chabua: 1 sqn MKIs
Gorakhpur: 1 sqn Mi-8
Guwahati: 1 sqn Mi-17
Hasimara: 2 sqn MiG-27
Jorhat: 2 sqn An-32, 1 sqn Mi-17
Kalaikunda: 1 sqn MKIs
Kumbhirgram: 1 sqn Mi-8
Mohanbari: 2 sqn Mi-17
Tezpur: 2 sqn MKIs, 1 sqn Chetaks

As we refine, the forces available to take on China grow thinner and thinner! :( But on the plus side, some of what I thought were MiG-21 or MiG-27 sqns are in fact MKIs.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby shiv » 24 Jan 2018 07:18

Fractal recursivity at work. The large picture is similar to the close-up/enlarged picture. If Indian numerical armed strength is less than that of China at a macro-level, that is not going to change at micro level

The only variables are geopolitics, motivation, weather, geography and leadership. Each one of these factors will affect every other factor - so IMO if there are 6 variables and 8 fronts we are looking at 8^6 different combinations of possibilities that cannot easily be dumbed down

My suggestion is to get down to a more granular level and take one "front" at a time. Say the Tawang region and apply the following to each side, China and India
1. Geopolitics
2. Motivation
3. Geography
4. weather
5. leadership required
6. Available armed strength
Last edited by shiv on 24 Jan 2018 07:22, edited 1 time in total.

ramana
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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby ramana » 24 Jan 2018 07:20

RD Remember its decade long scenario.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby Deans » 24 Jan 2018 11:24

In any 2 front (full fledged & conventional) war scenario, we would have enough visibility on Chinese troop movements. If for e.g. the PLA were to move through Myanmar, or Nepal, or to Pakistan through POK, we would have warning and can counter deploy. Divisions will be moved to new Corps and command HQ's. Therefore any scenario should consider what is the maximum available force we have to counter with, without losing ground elsewhere. That can well lead to a revised allocation of assets across theatres.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby Deans » 24 Jan 2018 12:06

Rudradev wrote:Now the question becomes: what of the OPPORTUNITY offered? What would India's war aims be, when a two-front conflict is launched against us by Pakistan and China? Simply beat them back and hold our own? Or something more?


India's war aims (facing an all out 2 front war) could be:

vs. Pakistan - Degrade Pakistan's economic potential so that they are significantly worse off than before they started.
Fight the war, as far as possible, on Pak soil, which serves to increase Pakistan's economic pain (e.g. shelling Lahore and Sailkot), reduce damage
to our own economy and use any territory seized as a bargaining chip.

vs. China: Seize vulnerable portions of Chinese territory, (e.g. cut off the Chumbi valley, or advance east of Chushul - reclaiming the land lost
in 1962). This allows to claim revenge for 1962 and forces the PLA to focus on ejecting us from their territory to avoid loss of face, rather than
invade India. Pakistan will not be too amused at any revision in war objectives by the PLA.

Of course, we have to consider Pak-China's war aims which IMO could be:
China (which will call the shots) - Eliminate India as a economic and regional rival by inflicting a humiliating defeat - as Ramana Sir suggested in response to my earlier post. This is possible if China inflicts a bigger defeat than in 1962, without crossing India's nuclear threshold. I've said `bigger than 1962', because we now have divisions in places where we had, at best, brigades in 62 and where we have had decades to prepare defences.
Hence China has to expend far greater force for the same result as 1962 AND hold the territory they capture.

Pak - Take Kashmir, preferably letting China do most of the fighting. Hold off any Indian thrust elsewhere in the West.

I agree that unacceptable damage to India would result in us going nuclear. China faces the same conundrum we do w.r.t Pak (Pak goes nuclear if we threaten to cut then in 2 or cause an unacceptable level of destruction to PA). Ambitious war aims by China will carry with it the risk of a nuclear exchange if China look like meeting those aims.
A plan which looks at trapping a large part of IA inside Kashmir, or cutting off the NE, may not (as the Chinese see it) cross our nuclear threshold hence that might be a more probable scenario for a 2 front war.

These objectives would lead to just a couple of credible war plans for China-Pak. Chinese mobilisation times (particularly anything involving a
3rd country) will give us enough time to counter mobilise (including transferring divisions to new corps/Command HQ's) and implement our own plans. e.g. an attempted PLA armoured thrust into Ladakh, in conjunction with Pak attacks in the west, would be met by IA armour (transferred to Ladakh) while Eastern command cuts of the Chumbi valley.

Lets therefore look at this through the eyes of the enemy. Formulate their plan and then look at how we can counter.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby Akshay Kapoor » 24 Jan 2018 15:18

Akshay Kapoor wrote:List of Requirements as Theatre Commander West - Northern Command, Western Command, South Western Command and Southern Command + WAC and SWAC

1. What is the political objective - defined as clearly as possible
2. What is my military objective - defined as clearly as possible with specific objectives in terms of territories captured, boundary chnages achived (liberate Sindh, Balochistan, POK, realingn LC ?) damage inflicted, which areas must I absolutely defend, where can I trade land for time, am I only defensive
3. What is the political will to initiate and sustain offensive operations - can I attack first to achieve strategic and tactical surprise, how long will offensive operations be sustained, will you wilt under media pressure if my forces reach Sargodha
4. What are absolutely can't dos ? What if mosques and madarsas are destroyed in my air offensive or arty operations, what about collateral damage, what about school children used as shields on Pak airbases which are my primary targets
5. What do I do about militancy and terrorism in Kashmir. Will CRPF and BSF take over and can I use some RR formations ?
6. Autonomy in selecting targets and maneovering my forces - will I have to get everything approved by AHQ and ARMY HQ who in turn will get it approved by MOD and therefore by CCS or can I select targets at will and adapt
7. Same for my plans and operations and changing my deployments according to the exigencies of battle
8. How many days of campaign can nation take
9. My ammunition stocks, restocking ability, POL stocks, restocking ability, other logistcis - weapon systems, food, transport
10. Medical facilities for my causlaties, appetite for casulaties
11. What is our nuclear scenario plan - what capacities do I have to mount offensive ops in NBC environment, what is our nuclear use policy, will we call the bluff, what happens when my spearheads are hit by sub kiloton tacs nukes, will you allow me to use some as well ? Under what scenarios will we retaliate


Enemy Intentions, Deployments & capacities

1. What are Pak intentions
2. What resources will they have - current ORBAT and capacity of their economy to deliver war materiel, current supply of ammunition, POL, state of their equipment and capacity to increase it and sustain operations
3. What resources will they have from China, saudi, US and other allies like Turkey
4. Maps - I need very good maps and intel on all their communication networks - road, rail, canal
5. Maps and intel on key infratstructure - telecom nodes, rail nodes, electricty nodes, dams, food stocks nodes, water supply system. Are there any targets I can hit that can really sap their will to fight and bring pressure on their elite - army and mullahs
6. Industrial base and key targets
7. Can I destroy dams to flood certain areas and channel their forces where I want them
7. Good handle on their political and national will. How aggressive will they be in defence and offense
8. Plans - offensive and defensive in as much detail as possible
9. Defences - how hardened are their various defences starting from LC/IB to big obstacles. What about their air bases protection - radars, AA and hardened shelters.
10. Defences - hows their AD network, radar coverage. I need maps if possible


Bumping up. I need answers to these to do my planning. Re axis of enemy thrusts that’s not critical to know because planning is never done on one axis. What is important is what resources they will have and the other questions listed above.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby nam » 24 Jan 2018 16:37

Rudradev wrote:And here's the problem.

How about degrading our warfighting capability on our soil? Even with a total of four PLA group armies and two Paki strike corps, how much firepower can they amass and employ with impunity? We're talking about heartland India, densely populated, where (let alone IA/IAF) an invading force will face resistance from lakhs of police, homeguards, CRPF, CISF, BSF, NCC, territorial army, even private citizens at every step of the way. At most they can achieve local dominance in areas where they commit in force, and as long as we're nimble in manoeuvre, whatever land they temporarily occupy can be traded for time. Ultimately they will be encircled and degraded faster than they can hope to degrade our military assets. We have the formidable advantage of being the defending party, and the deeper they penetrate, the stronger that advantage becomes.



I have considered this in my previous comments on this third. China+Pak need a minimum force of 5 million men for all out war based on what we have NOW. A two front war would cause GoI to announce a national mobilization. A nation of 1.3 billion can mobilize lot of fighting men... lots.

I am not considering nukes, because it mudies the water. We can go Paki and announce will nuke if Chinese drop noodles in Ladakh. It does not help in the analysis of the scenario. I go with the understanding that we have sufficient conventional capability that prevents the need to use nukes.

Now if they have shallow objectives like straightening up LAC/LOC, then India will have enough forces to counter this. Fundamentally it will result in a stalemate. If Pak+China want to fight a two front war, i.e divide up Indian resource to prevent a concentration of power in one front, why fight a war to stalemate?

Why I consider a China+Pak offensive on the western front, is the ease of launching such a offensive. No mountains. No forests. . Punjab is actually smaller than AP, which the Chinese claim. And it much more valuable than AP. Our western sector is our economic engine. Pakis have been training for this since ages. When Pakis can plan for it, why wouldn't Chinese join in?

And for the Chinese, most of the blowback will on Pakis, than Chinese. Big powers fight wars in other's country.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby chola » 24 Jan 2018 16:52

^^^ How will chinis build up in Pakiland? Through Karakorum Highway?

And how will they hide it from us?

They can’t.

We will build up in the Punjab as well.

It’ll be like the Western Front in France where millions of men on both sides are locked in a small stretch of land with no ability to maneuver or outflank. Nothing but attrition.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby nam » 24 Jan 2018 18:21

chola wrote:^^^ How will chinis build up in Pakiland? Through Karakorum Highway?

And how will they hide it from us?

They can’t.

We will build up in the Punjab as well.

It’ll be like the Western Front in France where millions of men on both sides are locked in a small stretch of land with no ability to maneuver or outflank. Nothing but attrition.


Build up cannot be hidden on any of the front. Everyone would know what's coming. Comparison with France is not valid, as here there is option of Punjab, Rajasthan & Gujrat. A much larger area.

In terms of supplies. Karakorum will not be the only option. Gwadar Naval base is another. Equipping Pak forces with Chinese weapons and local production by Pak.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby Deans » 24 Jan 2018 20:25

This is the PLA's ORBAT for the army.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/11/People%27s_Liberation_Army_Ground_Force.png

If we consider a joint Pak-China attack through Pakistan (worst case scenario ?) we could have the Western Theatre's forces deployed in
Tibet, where (with 7 divisions and 19 armoured/mech/infantry/arty brigades), they have rough parity against the IA in the East and Ladakh.
PLA divisions and brigades are smaller than those in the IA.

The PLA's Central theatre seems to be their reserve, since it is not directly deployed against a country with a disputed border.
This force is armour & mech heavy and ideal for deployment in the plains.
Assuming the PLA wants to move its entire Central theatre forces to Pakistan, this would comprise the following armored formations:
1 Armd division & 4 armoured brigades.
4 Mech divisions and 8 Mech brigades.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby Rudradev » 24 Jan 2018 22:05

Deans wrote:
...
Of course, we have to consider Pak-China's war aims which IMO could be:
China (which will call the shots) - Eliminate India as a economic and regional rival by inflicting a humiliating defeat - as Ramana Sir suggested in response to my earlier post. This is possible if China inflicts a bigger defeat than in 1962, without crossing India's nuclear threshold. I've said `bigger than 1962', because we now have divisions in places where we had, at best, brigades in 62 and where we have had decades to prepare defences.
Hence China has to expend far greater force for the same result as 1962 AND hold the territory they capture.

Pak - Take Kashmir, preferably letting China do most of the fighting. Hold off any Indian thrust elsewhere in the West.


This sounds about right to me.


I agree that unacceptable damage to India would result in us going nuclear. China faces the same conundrum we do w.r.t Pak (Pak goes nuclear if we threaten to cut then in 2 or cause an unacceptable level of destruction to PA). Ambitious war aims by China will carry with it the risk of a nuclear exchange if China look like meeting those aims.


No question about it, and we can be damn sure China will consider this very carefully.

This is why I am skeptical about huge (2 PA strike corps plus 5 divisions and 12 bdes of PLA CTC) formations invading India across multiple axes along the PB/HR/RJ/GJ border. There is simply no way this ends well for China, let alone Pakistan.

If India prevails conventionally, encircling all these PLA assets in a Korsun-Cherkassy like pocket far from home, China will lose face completely (they can't even run home and pretend victory, as from Vietnam in 1979). If India does not prevail conventionally, and you have this strength of invading forces deploying unchecked within a few 100 kms of major centres like Delhi, Ahmedabad, Ludhiana, Jaipur... it makes absolutely no sense to imagine that nukes will not come into play.

A plan which looks at trapping a large part of IA inside Kashmir, or cutting off the NE, may not (as the Chinese see it) cross our nuclear threshold hence that might be a more probable scenario for a 2 front war.


Yes. This may STILL be a miscalculation by China (that we would not go nuclear) but it is a credible extent of miscalculation, based on a putative Chinese perception that India still looks at NE and J&K as "frontier" rather than "heartland", and would not cross the N-threshold to defend these territories. To my mind, this is the absolute maximalist approach that China can afford to adopt.

These objectives would lead to just a couple of credible war plans for China-Pak. Chinese mobilisation times (particularly anything involving a
3rd country) will give us enough time to counter mobilise (including transferring divisions to new corps/Command HQ's) and implement our own plans. e.g. an attempted PLA armoured thrust into Ladakh, in conjunction with Pak attacks in the west, would be met by IA armour (transferred to Ladakh) while Eastern command cuts of the Chumbi valley.

Lets therefore look at this through the eyes of the enemy. Formulate their plan and then look at how we can counter.


Agreed, time to seriously consider the red-team angle.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby nam » 25 Jan 2018 00:40

Deans wrote:The PLA's Central theatre seems to be their reserve, since it is not directly deployed against a country with a disputed border.
This force is armour & mech heavy and ideal for deployment in the plains.
Assuming the PLA wants to move its entire Central theatre forces to Pakistan, this would comprise the following armored formations:
1 Armd division & 4 armoured brigades.
4 Mech divisions and 8 Mech brigades.


Along with this, I would expect China funding a expansion of PA with Chinese weapons. They can easily fund a couple of billions dollar per year for an additional PA Armour Division with Chinese tanks and ICVs. Americans paid 31 billion in 15 years to PA. Very doable for China.

One aspect in this proxy way we would face, money will not be a concern for China..

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby ramana » 25 Jan 2018 00:46

Akshay Kapoor wrote:
Akshay Kapoor wrote:List of Requirements as Theatre Commander West - Northern Command, Western Command, South Western Command and Southern Command + WAC and SWAC

1. What is the political objective - defined as clearly as possible
2. What is my military objective - defined as clearly as possible with specific objectives in terms of territories captured, boundary chnages achived (liberate Sindh, Balochistan, POK, realingn LC ?) damage inflicted, which areas must I absolutely defend, where can I trade land for time, am I only defensive
3. What is the political will to initiate and sustain offensive operations - can I attack first to achieve strategic and tactical surprise, how long will offensive operations be sustained, will you wilt under media pressure if my forces reach Sargodha
4. What are absolutely can't dos ? What if mosques and madarsas are destroyed in my air offensive or arty operations, what about collateral damage, what about school children used as shields on Pak airbases which are my primary targets
5. What do I do about militancy and terrorism in Kashmir. Will CRPF and BSF take over and can I use some RR formations ?
6. Autonomy in selecting targets and maneovering my forces - will I have to get everything approved by AHQ and ARMY HQ who in turn will get it approved by MOD and therefore by CCS or can I select targets at will and adapt
7. Same for my plans and operations and changing my deployments according to the exigencies of battle
8. How many days of campaign can nation take
9. My ammunition stocks, restocking ability, POL stocks, restocking ability, other logistcis - weapon systems, food, transport
10. Medical facilities for my causlaties, appetite for casulaties
11. What is our nuclear scenario plan - what capacities do I have to mount offensive ops in NBC environment, what is our nuclear use policy, will we call the bluff, what happens when my spearheads are hit by sub kiloton tacs nukes, will you allow me to use some as well ? Under what scenarios will we retaliate


Enemy Intentions, Deployments & capacities

1. What are Pak intentions
2. What resources will they have - current ORBAT and capacity of their economy to deliver war materiel, current supply of ammunition, POL, state of their equipment and capacity to increase it and sustain operations
3. What resources will they have from China, saudi, US and other allies like Turkey
4. Maps - I need very good maps and intel on all their communication networks - road, rail, canal
5. Maps and intel on key infratstructure - telecom nodes, rail nodes, electricty nodes, dams, food stocks nodes, water supply system. Are there any targets I can hit that can really sap their will to fight and bring pressure on their elite - army and mullahs
6. Industrial base and key targets
7. Can I destroy dams to flood certain areas and channel their forces where I want them
7. Good handle on their political and national will. How aggressive will they be in defence and offense
8. Plans - offensive and defensive in as much detail as possible
9. Defences - how hardened are their various defences starting from LC/IB to big obstacles. What about their air bases protection - radars, AA and hardened shelters.
10. Defences - hows their AD network, radar coverage. I need maps if possible


Bumping up. I need answers to these to do my planning. Re axis of enemy thrusts that’s not critical to know because planning is never done on one axis. What is important is what resources they will have and the other questions listed above.


Akshay Kapoor, Y.B. Chavan's War diaries show that Gen J..N. Chaudhri had come up with his requirements for Operation Riddle and these were tailored/agreed to by the RM.

So you need to come up with your constraints/requirements and where you need leeway and let the consensus on whats acceptable.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby Deans » 25 Jan 2018 16:24

The opening post by Ramana ji talks of a scenario upto 2030 - something I had lost track of.
I think it would be pertinent to look at where India/ Pak/China would be in 2030. That might define how they plan to fight.

Most economic estimates I have seen suggest that China will be the worlds biggest economy around 2030. Their focus will be on overtaking the US.
The 2 risks they run in trying to over take the US economy are the risk that the bubbles in their economy will burst (rather than a carefully caliberated soft landing), or that they fight a war which hurts their economy and/or causes `loss of face'. If a war with India causes a loss of a $ 100 billion trade surplus (currently $52 bln), irrespective of who wins, that alone can be the thin end of a wedge that causes a serious Chinese economic decline.

India will be the 3rd biggest economy by around 2024 (in absolute terms, not PPP). India's GDP which was a 5th of China, will be a third of China in 2030. (the gap will be narrower in PPP terms).

Estimates for Pak (which I think are on the optimistic side) suggest that its GDP will move from being 1/9th of India to being 1/14th of India in 2030. In other words, India will grow its economy each year by the size of Pak.

In this context, can Pak get China to join it, in a war with India, or is it most likely to be the other way around ?
What factors will get China to start a full fledged war with India and how would that conflict be planned to ensure that neither is india's nuclear threshold crossed, nor is there a serious economic risk (not just economic cost of war, but not catching up with the US by 2030 - in Eleven''s lifetime).

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby chola » 25 Jan 2018 16:41

What factors will get China to start a full fledged war with India and how would that conflict be planned to ensure that neither is india's nuclear threshold crossed, nor is there a serious economic risk (not just economic cost of war, but not catching up with the US by 2030 - in Eleven''s lifetime).


They are trading power that needs safe trade routes from all over the world and good percentage of those go through the Indian Ocean.

They are an industrial power building infrastructure all over the world and depend on those same trade routes and lines of communication for material and human resources.

In short, there is NO way for Cheen to go into war with India without major economic pain when their LOCs pass by our doorstep.

We should take that into account. Instead of being defensive and worrying about a “2.5 front” war being imposed upon us by a paki failed state and a mercantile power who had not fought a major in five decades, we should think offensively about creating a fifth front for Cheen to mull over — in addition to their standoffs against the US in Guam and in waters right up to the chini coast, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby ramana » 25 Jan 2018 23:18

Deans wrote:The opening post by Ramana ji talks of a scenario upto 2030 - something I had lost track of.
I think it would be pertinent to look at where India/ Pak/China would be in 2030. That might define how they plan to fight.

Most economic estimates I have seen suggest that China will be the worlds biggest economy around 2030. Their focus will be on overtaking the US.
The 2 risks they run in trying to over take the US economy are the risk that the bubbles in their economy will burst (rather than a carefully caliberated soft landing), or that they fight a war which hurts their economy and/or causes `loss of face'. If a war with India causes a loss of a $ 100 billion trade surplus (currently $52 bln), irrespective of who wins, that alone can be the thin end of a wedge that causes a serious Chinese economic decline.

India will be the 3rd biggest economy by around 2024 (in absolute terms, not PPP). India's GDP which was a 5th of China, will be a third of China in 2030. (the gap will be narrower in PPP terms).

Estimates for Pak (which I think are on the optimistic side) suggest that its GDP will move from being 1/9th of India to being 1/14th of India in 2030. In other words, India will grow its economy each year by the size of Pak.

In this context, can Pak get China to join it, in a war with India, or is it most likely to be the other way around ?

What factors will get China to start a full fledged war with India and how would that conflict be planned to ensure that neither is india's nuclear threshold crossed, nor is there a serious economic risk (not just economic cost of war, but not catching up with the US by 2030 - in Eleven''s lifetime).




The bold are the global factors.

If you look at long history of Independent India there are few unplanned surprises that trigger national turning points. These unplanned surprises could have been prevented but hubris/psychological allowed them.

- 1948 the tribal invasion of J&K that has led to the Kashmir problem still festering.
- 1962 the Chinese 'aggression' which led to the derailing of the economic development to recover from log colonization
- 3 Sep 1965 Pakistani armed forces intervention in Kashmir
- 1984 Indira Gandhi assassination
- 1992 Rajiv Gandhi assassination

None of these are global/strategic factors. They were tactical that triggered the changes in India.

So my point again is don't be misled by strategic factors.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby ramana » 25 Jan 2018 23:23

If Archduke Ferdinand had taken a different route in August 1914 WWI could have been triggered by something else.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby nam » 26 Jan 2018 02:48

By 2030, if not earlier, 3 things are certain:

There will be no shortage of Chinese money
No shortage of ammo from Chinese factories
no shortage of pak cannon fodders to fight.

And chinese will fight us to the last pak.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby Deans » 26 Jan 2018 10:48

ramana wrote:None of these are global/strategic factors. They were tactical that triggered the changes in India.

So my point again is don't be misled by strategic factors.


I'm not suggesting that the strategic situation going to 2030 will rule out a 2 front war. I'm starting with the assumption that there will be one, but
I wanted to use these global/strategic factors to see what kind of shape that war will assume.

For e.g. The relationship between China & Pak as we go forward (the factors Nam lists) may be similar to what exists now between China & NoKo.
Similarly, the India : Pak equation might be closer to that between SoKo & NoKo.

Wars are indeed caused by irrational assumptions and misunderstandings, apart from black swan events. Between India, Pak & China, the least
rational player would be Pak. A war started by uncontrolled or irrational acts from Pak (e.g. Kargil, or a terrorist strike), may be very unlikely to
rope in China.

In this context, my submission is that if there is a 2 front war, it will be planned and initiated by China, with Pak playing the cannon fodder role.If China's war objectives are constrained by India's nuclear deterrent and the permanent loss of the Indian market (in any all out conventional war)
then those objectives might take the shape of a more limited war to resolve territorial disputes in the North East and Ladakh - with Pak keeping the Western front active.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby nam » 26 Jan 2018 15:09

I am taking some lessons from Syria. Every power over there has cannon fodders to do their job. Russians have SAA, US has SDF, Turkey has everyone who want to join.

Their provide the conventional umbrella, which allow their proxies to fight.

So if the Chinese want Paks to fight, here is my scenario.

China becomes a dominant power in Afghanistan. Pay off Afghans to allow Taliban in power. China gets a base and mineral resources. Paks get to do their Mughal thing. China has already got's base in East Afghanistan.

China funds the expansion of PA. Deploys a division or two in Gwadar. This provides the "conventional umbrella" for Pak. One of the issue with having US as the benefactor was it's restriction on Pak adventures against us. China would expect Pak to fight us.

In return Pak deploys it mountain divisions in Aksi Chin or LAC.China get's it bodies to fight for it on LAC. Far away from Hanland and PLA does not have to deploy in large numbers.

The hordes which were freed after "solving" the Afghan problem can then be diverted towards us across IB for constant attacks.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby Vidur » 26 Jan 2018 15:09

Akshay Kapoor wrote:
Akshay Kapoor wrote:List of Requirements as Theatre Commander West - Northern Command, Western Command, South Western Command and Southern Command + WAC and SWAC

1. What is the political objective - defined as clearly as possible

Answer - There is no defined political objective and don't expect it. At the cost of being perceived as cynical but going to the nub of the matter, the only political objective for Indian politicians is political survival and winning the next election. If you want to understand why then keep the following in mind - there is no strategic culture in the Indian pysche especially in the political class, daily survival is what matters to the vast majority of Indians so they don't really care nor understand these issues, there is hardly any military experience in the decision makers so there is nothing to act as a buffer against the rational desire of politicians to respond to the above incentives.

2. What is my military objective - defined as clearly as possible with specific objectives in terms of territories captured, boundary chnages achived (liberate Sindh, Balochistan, POK, realingn LC ?) damage inflicted, which areas must I absolutely defend, where can I trade land for time, am I only defensive

Answer - There will be no clear military objective either as there is no political objective. You will be asked to give the military objectives yourself but after the war starts. So you will be defensive and reactive not offensive. It is highly unlikely that proactive measures and offensive plans will be approved. You must defend all our territory especially Gujarat and Punjab and J&K. You are not expected to make any boundary changes, take territory.

3. What is the political will to initiate and sustain offensive operations - can I attack first to achieve strategic and tactical surprise, how long will offensive operations be sustained, will you wilt under media pressure if my forces reach Sargodha

Answer - pls see above answers. No will to initiate or sustain offensive operations unless absolutely necessary for national survival post the start of the war. Media pressure is not the only pressure - there is international pressure too. I think it is highly likely that we will wilt under pressure but difficult to define at what stage.

4. What are absolutely can't dos ? What if mosques and madarsas are destroyed in my air offensive or arty operations, what about collateral damage, what about school children used as shields on Pak airbases which are my primary targets

Answer - there will be noises made to not have collateral damage but after full scale war starts there will be fewer questions asked. Your wild cards are what the media and your own troops say. Don't make the mistake of thinking media is 'force multipliers' unless you can manage them well in advance and you are sure they are on your side. Also be careful of videos made by your own troops on their phones.

5. What do I do about militancy and terrorism in Kashmir. Will CRPF and BSF take over and can I use some RR formations ?
6. Autonomy in selecting targets and maneuvering my forces - will I have to get everything approved by AHQ and ARMY HQ who in turn will get it approved by MOD and therefore by CCS or can I select targets at will and adapt

Answer - In the early stages of the war no autonomy will be given. As explained above you will not have approval to do proactive operations. Once war starts and if things are going badly then it will be different. At this stage you will receive no problems on that count from the defence ministry because no one will want to take ownership of the situation.

7. Same for my plans and operations and changing my deployments according to the exigencies of battle

Answer - see above. Within the parameters of the defense needs you can have some flexibility but not for deep offensives.
8. How many days of campaign can nation take

Answer - difficult to say. A priori not very long.
9. My ammunition stocks, restocking ability, POL stocks, restocking ability, other logistcis - weapon systems, food, transport
10. Medical facilities for my causlaties, appetite for casulaties
11. What is our nuclear scenario plan - what capacities do I have to mount offensive ops in NBC environment, what is our nuclear use policy, will we call the bluff, what happens when my spearheads are hit by sub kiloton tacs nukes, will you allow me to use some as well ? Under what scenarios will we retaliate



Enemy Intentions, Deployments & capacities

1. What are Pak intentions
2. What resources will they have - current ORBAT and capacity of their economy to deliver war materiel, current supply of ammunition, POL, state of their equipment and capacity to increase it and sustain operations
3. What resources will they have from China, saudi, US and other allies like Turkey
4. Maps - I need very good maps and intel on all their communication networks - road, rail, canal
5. Maps and intel on key infratstructure - telecom nodes, rail nodes, electricty nodes, dams, food stocks nodes, water supply system. Are there any targets I can hit that can really sap their will to fight and bring pressure on their elite - army and mullahs
6. Industrial base and key targets
7. Can I destroy dams to flood certain areas and channel their forces where I want them
7. Good handle on their political and national will. How aggressive will they be in defence and offense
8. Plans - offensive and defensive in as much detail as possible
9. Defences - how hardened are their various defences starting from LC/IB to big obstacles. What about their air bases protection - radars, AA and hardened shelters.
10. Defences - hows their AD network, radar coverage. I need maps if possible


Bumping up. I need answers to these to do my planning. Re axis of enemy thrusts that’s not critical to know because planning is never done on one axis. What is important is what resources they will have and the other questions listed above.


An attempt at answering some of your questions related to political objectives and how the armed forces will interact with the political leadership.

Please see my comments in your original question

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby SSridhar » 27 Jan 2018 13:25

ramana wrote:I think its time to revisit the Two front war scenario that the services are preparing for.
. . .
3) India's frontier problem : Two front and internal security . . .

Along LAC, army seeks swift troop movement - Shaurya Karanbir Gurung, Economic Times
In light of China, militarily, being India's main adversary and its acts of border aggression, the Indian Army is looking at meeting a key requirement along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), which is the ability to quickly move forces from one sector to another and from the western to the eastern theatre. However, to meet this requirement a lot will have to be done.

Army chief General Bipin Rawat while addressing reporters earlier this month had explained that capacities have to be built for movement of forces between sectors and from the western to the northern front.

The Army's infrastructure development activities are focussing on this issue. He added that capabilities will also have to be built for inter-sector movement of ammunition.


To achieve this, infrastructure development entails building better connectivity through roads, all-weather tunnels and strategic bridges along the LAC. However, building these routes in high-altitude areas is an uphill task due to the inhospitable terrain. In addition, inter-valley connectivity for ensuring shifting forces between sectors is yet to be achieved. This means that moving formations up to the LAC from their present locations in the eastern front will take time and so will moving formations from the western theatre to the LAC.

Better connectivity for meeting the requirements as stated by the Army Chief have to be seen in the context of the military relations between India and China. The two have fought against each other during the 1962 war. Then, the lack of roads was a stumbling block in sending troops and supplies to the LAC. In 2014, this correspondent had visited the Tawang sector of Arunachal Pradesh, a primary location which was overrun by the Chinese army during the war. The state of roads leading to the LAC were like dirt tracks, which severely restricted mobility.

Post [1962] war, the government made a decision to delay construction of border roads, so that in case of another war the Chinese cannot easily enter the hinterland. However, from 1999, the construction of the 73 India-China Border Roads (ICBRs) began. This was expedited following the Dokalam standoff, which ended last August.

This was another important development, because the standoff proved that in the Sikkim area the army could not mobilise its artillery and additional ammunition on time.

Following the standoff, the army also re-prioritised its five year plan to meet its operational requirements along the frontier with China. This mainly includes infrastructure development.

General Rawat had explained this aspect as well. "What we have to do is build capacities for inter-sector move and at the same time build capacities to ensure that we are able to move forces from the western front to the northern front. That is where the focus is and that is how we planning to counter various threats that are likely to evolve. That is why some of our development activities on infrastructure are focussing on these issues," he had said.

A roadmap for intra-sector connectivity within the central sector (consisting of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh) and inter-sector connectivity with neighbouring areas was discussed at the army commanders conference in October, 2017. "What is also badly needed is inter-valley connectivity, which will allow switching of forces," explained an officer. This is also true for other areas such as Arunachal Pradesh.

However, experts say that intra-movement or movement within the eastern theatre during a military conflict with China will be difficult, because the PLA is likely to strike at multiple points along the LAC to keep Indian forces guessing as to where his main thrust lines will be. This will restrict intra and inter-sector movement of reserve forces to a great extent.

Therefore against China, movement for the Indian forces will primarily be from the western theatre to the eastern theatre. The movement will be of Dual Task Formations and even some of the Pakistan-centric Strike Corps
can be used for this task. "But first the formations, including their logistics, deployed in a particular sector of the eastern theatre will move up to the LAC. Only then, the formations arriving from the western theatre will head to the LAC. All this will take time given the current state of road connectivity. So what will be needed is more helipads and advanced landing grounds," said an expert.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby VKumar » 27 Jan 2018 19:53

Hundreds of civilian airline aircraft can move huge volumes.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby shiv » 27 Jan 2018 21:54

VKumar wrote:Hundreds of civilian airline aircraft can move huge volumes.

Most army vehicles cannot be carried on civil planes. Even if they land in the most forward airfields - barring a few - the last 50-100 km will have to be by road, uphill.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby Deans » 28 Jan 2018 10:33

VKumar wrote:Hundreds of civilian airline aircraft can move huge volumes.


Apart from the restrictions on cargo that Shiv mentions, runway length and availability are constraints.
In North Kashmir, there are 3 airfields - Leh, Kargil and Thoise. Kargil can only accommodate light aircraft (48 seater ATR) that too with a payload
restriction & Leh is available for about 4 hours a day (wind is a factor). Only Thoise has a long runway, though the altitude affects payload.
Similarly airfields in Arunachal and Sikkim cannot take anything more than a ATR.
Civil aircraft cant land on the advanced landing grounds like DBO.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby Akshay Kapoor » 29 Jan 2018 18:55

Vidur wrote:
Akshay Kapoor wrote:
Bumping up. I need answers to these to do my planning. Re axis of enemy thrusts that’s not critical to know because planning is never done on one axis. What is important is what resources they will have and the other questions listed above.


An attempt at answering some of your questions related to political objectives and how the armed forces will interact with the political leadership.

Please see my comments in your original question


Thanks. That makes my task impossible. How do I plan without a clear aim. Also pls check your PM.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby shiv » 29 Jan 2018 20:15

May I interject once again and ask something about a "two front war"? Many assumptions simply state that China and Paki will cooperate. To me this sounds suspiciously like my own claim that Angelina Jolie will somehow cooperate with me.

We all know from reading multiple war histories that any single army (or multiple allied armies) fighting on multiple fronts need to cooperate in order that they don't individually end up in disasters. For example - assume China and Pak cooperate. Imagine a scenario where India does a deep thrust into Pakistan - and simultaneously makes inroads into Aksai Chin while holding ground - or even retreating somewhat in the east. Is China going to then pull out forces from the east to help Pakistan? Pakistan will surely holler for help.

In other words a "two front war" must also assume joint operational capability pre-planned and pre-arranged between Pakistan and China. Someone said that we need to think like the adversary. What sort of joint capability would be needed.How would China move forces into Pakistan? Or how would Pakistan move forces into Aksai Chin? Even within India we struggle with the idea of jointness and practice a great deal. Is it being suggested that China and Pakistan can somehow pull this off "just like that" at the drop of a hat? In the next decade? Without any preplanning or detectable preparation?

Or is it being suggested that one nation will start a war and the other will "opportunistically" join in. But opportunism may or may not work. If we simply hold the Chinese and kick Paki butt all enemy opportunistic plans may come to naught. India is not a pushover. They have to plan.

So..

Without looking into the form of cooperation that China and Pak can arrange - simply looking at what India can do may not be that informative as a realistic scenario. The planning that they do will to some extent impinge on the way we respond. Neither China nor Pakistan can willy-nilly enter into a cooperative war without good planning for jointness.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby Deans » 29 Jan 2018 21:43

I agree, A scenario that requires Chinese forces to be in Pak, may require a level of joint planning and exercises that seem unrealistic. For this reason my working assumption for a future 2 front war would be that each country fights from its own territory.

Yom Kippur 1973. Syria and Egypt had forces that were similar in ethnicity, doctrine, training, equipment and war goals. They planned an offensive for a long time, aided by thousands of Soviet advisors. Their level of cooperation was still confined to each country attacking from its borders. When Iraq and Jordan did attempt to move into Syria to assist the Syrians, there was a horrible breakdown in communications.

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby Rudradev » 30 Jan 2018 03:51

shiv wrote:
Without looking into the form of cooperation that China and Pak can arrange - simply looking at what India can do may not be that informative as a realistic scenario. The planning that they do will to some extent impinge on the way we respond. Neither China nor Pakistan can willy-nilly enter into a cooperative war without good planning for jointness.


Very true. To add to this, when we think about China-Pak cooperative planning, we have to consider the question of nuclear weapons use.

An article posted recently by Shiv (in the Deterrence thread)
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-bu ... -the-24097
explains why the US was willing to accept defeat in Vietnam rather than go nuclear. Essentially the reasoning was that the US had more to lose by lowering the internationally-accepted threshold for nuclear weapons use to a sub-strategic level, i.e. as weapons of war-fighting rather than instruments of deterrence. Not just in Vietnam but generally in the future, the widespread adoption of tactical nukes would mean a severe decrease in the advantage conferred by America's conventional military power (vastly superior to any other country except the USSR at that time).

China may very well have the same outlook. If the international norm for nuclear weapons use changes as a result of precedent, so that Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia etc. become more comfortable with the idea of developing and fielding low-yield nukes to counteract Chinese conventional superiority, it would severely limit Beijing's options to pursue the kinds of things they currently attempt in the Indo-China Sea or Senkaku island chains, let alone compel Taiwan by force.

Right now China's strategy is to use rabid pet dogs like NoKo and Pakistan as deniable nuclear threats, effectively as a proxy deterrence mantle against somebody like the US utilizing its conventional superiority to aggressively intervene in what Beijing considers its sphere of influence. Like all deterrence mechanisms, this proxy mantle will evaporate the moment either NoKo or Pakistan actually uses a nuke.

Now how does this square with the perennial Paki squealing that they will use TNWs at the first sign of reversals at the hands of an Indian conventional force on their own soil? Will the Pakis, in their joint planning sessions, promise not to use (or to threaten to use) TNWs or any sort of NWs in the prosecution of a two-front war on India? Can the Chinese trust them?

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Re: Two and Half Front War Scenario

Postby ramana » 30 Jan 2018 04:31

RD, If Chi-Pak is losing they wont worry about international consensus to use nukes. The purpose of the CMD and A5 etc. is assured massive retaliation to prevent such breakdown.

Lets get back to regular programming.

One way Chi-Pak will function is under overall command of PLA officers. The forces will be where they are and proceed.


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