MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Kartik » 01 May 2020 23:36

I doubt that the deal for 21 stored MiG-29s will happen either. If the contract for the 83 Mk1As is signed, that'll itself be something to cheer about.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Karan M » 02 May 2020 00:09

Isnt that 3 month old news?

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Karan M » 02 May 2020 00:26


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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Rakesh » 02 May 2020 10:26

somdev wrote:LockMart inks MOU with BEL ... something’s cooking it seems!

https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2020-Fe ... -programme

It is over.

114 of any bird was never going to come anyway. Now with COVID-19, nothing is going to get sanctioned. No govt is going to put $20 billion (at minimum) to any of the OEMs in times like this.

It is a good thing though. In the absence of phoren maal, the IAF will be forced to make do with what is locally available and that aircraft is Tejas. Phoren maal will come via drip feed (in a few years) —> i.e. 36 more Rafales or some other MMRCA.

114 is done and with that goes job creation, F-16 factory, industrial base, exporting F-16s, upgrading F-16s, etc.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Philip » 02 May 2020 10:40

MMRCA 2.0 is as dead as the dodo. Scraps from other countries ,same birds we currently fly like MIG-29ss,upgrades to MKIs,maybe a few more to keep HALNasik employed and Tejas at its leisurely pace of production ,will be the order of thf day.
The IAF must look to its museum pieces, recently retired birds and cannibalise as much as possible to have some war reserves in hand.
Instead,crappy med. eqpt. imporyed from China by our utterly incompetent ICMR,again importing kits from the same faulty manufacturers ( what gives?),is a higher priority!

I posted years ago convertinb our old MIG-21s into armed drones with stand-off munotions, or Mach 2 kamikaze missiles,could dust off the same thought what?

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Karan M » 02 May 2020 14:05

somdev wrote:How prudent it is to continue investment on Tejas Mk2 programme over AMCA? Beyond 83 Tejas variants the progression should be straight to AMCA and the gap in between filled by 'make in India' fighters like LockMart's F21. The private sector gets induced and ecosystem builds up quickly - also prodcution capacity ramps up.


You are completely mistaken here. The so called F21 will come as mostly black boxes for key avionics items, which are what define its combat capability and the TOT in mech systems etc will be useful to only a degree in local spares and maintenance - the US or any other MMRCA competitor is not going to give us a fraction of the design rights, parts indigenization we achieved via other programs. Its just glorified assembly of the kind we have done for decades with limited upside. The only reason we are doing it, is because of decades of past mismanagement ensured we need a fighter now, and the Tejas derivatives were already not available. At best, its a stopgap. It won't build private industry competence anywhere near involvement in a Tejas would.

Mk2 is essential to meet both IAF requirements and also build up competence as a bridge to the AMCA. The Mk1A does not meet IAF requirements to the degree a Mk2 would, and nor can it be equipped with the kind of systems a MWF would have, which have a high degree of commonality AMCA would need. A Mk2 speeds up AMCA production and deployment, not merely design.

Also, I have been dispassionately thinking why does Indian Air Force have to be part of any platform development? The primary role of air force is an operational one not get involved in product/platform development. The uncoupling must be done and aerospace majors investing in India should develop platforms based on their analysis of the market.


This statement clearly ignores the operational dynamics of product development and especially the Indian scenario, let alone the strategic ramifications of external dependency, that too on items which require years of tinkering before they truly meet IAF operational needs.

First, the IAF deeply needs to be part of platform development to ensure the product meets their needs and the designers benefit from their understanding of operational needs and tactical deployment. Hiring retired officials is not enough, a direct link with serving personnel is essential.

Second, it builds trust in the intended user, the IAF as to what its getting.

Third, India can no longer afford to import expensive fighters which are designed for other countries needs, and then come with strings attached. We lose valuable money which should have gone to Indian industry, and open ourselves up to external influence in our core interests. A few months delay in spares, and you are saddled with a toxic asset.

Fourth, the ramifications of having a world-class development ecosystem. The world over, the only successful MIC which have really hit hard at the export market, and met domestic needs are those which are deeply integrated with their user group. The Israelis for instance have dozens of reserve officers directly involved with their product development for the IDFAF, which is considered to be the key reason why their weapons development is accelerated. The French AF, Armed Forces maintain a deep linkage with their state owned and private owned aerospace and defense majors as a result of which the final product like the Dassault Rafale was tailored to their needs and met a relatively straightforward induction path. In contrast, the design by committee EF is still mired in the occasional controversy over who owns what, and which requirements it has to meet.
India has the potential to take the world by storm thanks to its mix of a world-class armed forces, and engineering teams who deliver products at a fraction of the cost of their worldwide peers. If this capability is allowed to scale, the ramifications are obvious.

Fifth, every time, India succeeds in supplanting an import, it saves money to invest more in its own future industry and be competitive worldwide. This again has ramifications on our diplomacy and worldwide reach, when countries which seek Indian support can buy arms and munitions which we can develop and sustain.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby hemant_sai » 02 May 2020 14:40

somdev wrote:How prudent it is to continue investment on Tejas Mk2 programme over AMCA? Beyond 83 Tejas variants the progression should be straight to AMCA and the gap in between filled by 'make in India' fighters like LockMart's F21. The private sector gets induced and ecosystem builds up quickly - also prodcution capacity ramps up.

Also, I have been dispassionately thinking why does Indian Air Force have to be part of any platform development? The primary role of air force is an operational one not get involved in product/platform development. The uncoupling must be done and aerospace majors investing in India should develop platforms based on their analysis of the market.


I am surprised that Karan ji took so much efforts to counter Somdev ji that too with modesty :-)
I would say, Somdev ji - it is ok that you think you are super smart but people on this forum are definitely not dumb. You sound more like SomRakshas.

Rather I want India to continue development on more platforms.
My dream is India should develop capability to create barebone aircrafts in quick time - if possible in a year.
By barebone aircraft I mean building of airframe with flying capability.
We should have done something like this for AMCA long back. We still can but I don't see anyone from ADA/HAL/IAF thinking on this line.
Everyone just comes with a project full or none. Give us thousands of crores else none.
Keep delaying deliverables until that The Best is achieved. What about TIME? We don't have luxury of Time. Indian Zugaad is imperative , Quantity is important.
I liked the suggestion to convert Mig21 to drones instead of making them complete scrap.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby arvin » 02 May 2020 16:16

Philip wrote:
I posted years ago convertinb our old MIG-21s into armed drones with stand-off munotions, or Mach 2 kamikaze missiles,could dust off the same thought what?


That would be a project in itself not worth the money and effort.
F16 could be converted into QF16 drone since its already a FBW by birth. The flight software controls the hydraulics for control surfaces. In its current drone avtaar, the pilot is replaced by another piece of code which tells the flight software about take off speed, waypoints etc.
The mig 21 controls are manual ( levers, pulleys etc) with hydraulic assist only for the stabilator. Making it software controlled will involve significant mechanical and hydraulic redesign. Flight testing and validation this will not be a worth while effort.
At the end of life, these are better of as meusum pieces, keep a few for vintage flying and rest sell as scrap.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby arvin » 02 May 2020 18:12

Somdev ji, The Viper has cast a spell on you using its Pungi (Brochures). Tantriks at ADA might be able to break it.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Karan M » 02 May 2020 23:42

F-16 and brochures, that's a tale. That F-16 IN video shows triple launch racks on each wing to somehow give the aircraft a solid BVR capability (8 missiles) plus 2 WVR. Then the fuel tanks, center, and wings. Then the EFT. Looks so impressive. May I ask what would be the flight envelope of that aircraft in that configuration? How much speed, how much G it can pull, how fast can it move.. :lol:
Nobody beats the Yanks in brochure bashing bar the Swedes, who are 10x worse.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby SidSoma » 03 May 2020 00:36

Karan M wrote:F-16 and brochures, that's a tale. That F-16 IN video shows triple launch racks on each wing to somehow give the aircraft a solid BVR capability (8 missiles) plus 2 WVR. Then the fuel tanks, center, and wings. Then the EFT. Looks so impressive. May I ask what would be the flight envelope of that aircraft in that configuration? How much speed, how much G it can pull, how fast can it move.. :lol:
Nobody beats the Yanks in brochure bashing bar the Swedes, who are 10x worse.


Just wait until you read a few of the Chinese brochures that are being translated .....

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Philip » 03 May 2020 09:04

Ha!Ha! Karan is spot on.With so much invested in Tejas,the MK-2 should be given priority over foreign buys of a new type,and if some stealth features introduced ( Russia wants to develop an SE light stealth fighter), it would be a bridge to AMCA later on. It would also cost much less.$50M+ per Tejas is too much when a modest JF-17 is only $16M. The Pakis can buy 3 of them for the price of 1 Tejas! Who's winning the numbers game? At say $ 60M a MK-2, it will still be cheaper than a firang devil AND be indigenous to a greater degree with a supply chain in place.To make up numbers,extra MIGs,Sukhois,etc. can be bought or built.No sweat in inducting them into the fleet. Thete is no need to buy redecorated 1980's western aircraft being disposed off,that too the F-whatever that the Pakis have been flying for decades!

However,the ordnance the aircraft carry will be decisive.We need Astra,and other Ru offered AAMs and PGMs,both firang and desi, to be inducted asap.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Rakesh » 03 May 2020 09:15

somdev wrote:So 'make in India' new F21s (rebadged F16s) after the end of their operational life can have a road-map to unmanned version and with swarm UAVs to complement - perfect recipe!

Did you even read anything that Karan posted in reply to your post?

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Rakesh » 03 May 2020 10:35

New procurement plan, strategic projects key to PM’s defence push
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 497181.cms
01 May 2020

In a review of the defence industry on Thursday evening, the PM emphasised on self-reliance and exports – twin objectives that will require the new procurement procedure that is in the final stages of implementation to give an advantage to domestic firms involved in manufacturing.

The policy, sources said, will reflect this focus and direct imports are being placed at the very bottom of the priority of procurement and Indian designed developed and manufactured products will be given the highest importance. While this was reflected in earlier policies as well, projects have barely taken off under the route and the plan now is to focus on how Indian companies with intellectual property rights could be given a pricing advantage as well.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Chinmay » 03 May 2020 14:44

arvin wrote:
That would be a project in itself not worth the money and effort.
F16 could be converted into QF16 drone since its already a FBW by birth. The flight software controls the hydraulics for control surfaces. In its current drone avtaar, the pilot is replaced by another piece of code which tells the flight software about take off speed, waypoints etc.
The mig 21 controls are manual ( levers, pulleys etc) with hydraulic assist only for the stabilator. Making it software controlled will involve significant mechanical and hydraulic redesign. Flight testing and validation this will not be a worth while effort.
At the end of life, these are better of as meusum pieces, keep a few for vintage flying and rest sell as scrap.


The F-4s were converted into QF-4s, which acted as aerial targets. Non-FBWs converted into drones by BaE systems which are now being replaced by the QF-16s. This cost about a million USD per aircraft IIRC

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Rakesh » 05 May 2020 22:29

The author of the article below states that it is his personal opinion. Nevertheless, FWIW.....

Vivek Lall exits shows, Lockheed Martin not sure of F-21 deal with India
https://defencenewsofindia.com/vivek-la ... -of-india/
05 May 2020

Vivek Lall, a prominent Indian American aerospace and defense expert, who played key roles in some of the major defense deals between India and the U.S., has resigned from Lockheed Martin “to spend more time with family,”. Lall has been under pressure for failing to secure more deals for the company and growing prospects of India ignoring procurement of F-21 (F-16V) for the Indian air force deal for 114 jets.

Lall had secured a deal for 24 MH-60 Romeo helicopters from Indian Navy for Lockheed Martin recently and was also actively following up with prospects of Indian Air force ordering additional C-130J Tactical Transporters but the pressure was on to secure biggest fighter jet deal of recent times with India and results weren’t convincing enough with IAF Top Tier still desiring for the French Dassault Rafale fighter jet which already has been ordered in small batch as emergency purchase.

F-21 on offer is just a rebadged F-16V and not many are impressed by the what Lockheed Martin has to offer to India as in previous MMRCA tender, India had rejected F-16IN (Block 70) due in technical round and it was an only front runner when tried to procure fighter jets under SEF (Single Engine Fighter) where the race was limited only with Saab’s Gripen after India scrapped that too and allowed more fighter jets to compete which saw the entry of Sukhoi-35 and F-15.

IAF is yet to issue Request for Proposal (RFP) and there have been murmurs that entry of F-15EX by rival Boeing might complicate the situation for the F-21 on the offer and Lockheed is now considering offering its F-35A to India with limited technology transfer and local assembly rights for the aircraft as India tries to limit the purchase of defense equipment from foreign countries amid slowing of the economic activities due to COVID-19 situation in the county.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Rakesh » 05 May 2020 22:38

The likely end of the MMRCA contest is largely due to the COVID-19 threat, however the other equal nail in the coffin is the maturing of India's aviation industry (as can be seen in the multiple Tejas variants all from a set of TD, PV and LSP series of aircraft ---> Mk1, Mk1A, Mk2, SPORT, TEDBF, ORCA, TEJEX).

A few on the forum were dead set against the Tejas Mk2 coming on board. The risk assessor even claimed that the Tejas Mk2 would never come. Arrival of Tejas Mk2 would mean the end of 200 F-16s and 100 F-18s for the Indian Air Force, numbers provided by the risk assessor himself.

I still remember the gyan given on BRF ---> F-16 purchase is directly tied into engine tech from the US :lol:

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Mollick.R » 05 May 2020 22:49

From Twitter

Bye Bye MMRCA
Quote Tweet

Atul Kumar
@AtulKr161711
· 9h
Replying to @SJha1618
The opening para is enough to tell the entire story.

https://twitter.com/Amitraaz/status/1257575869519822848



Image

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Karan M » 05 May 2020 23:02

Thank God for that.
We have the following orders placed (but require funding): 7 Akash squadrons, MRSAM (IAF)
Orders yet to be placed, despite products having cleared user trial: 6 Pinaka regiments, 83 Tejas Mk1A, Akash Mk1S (IA), Nag, Astra, , Arjun Mk1A, 8 MPR, 18 LLTR, BMD
Orders that could be placed (relatively soon) as products are ready for user trials: QRSAM, Pinaka guided, Atulya, ADTCR, ATAGs (last three have likely cleared user trials)

Can imagine how badly the desi-products have been hit due to the huge spend on S-400 and Rafale.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby arvin » 05 May 2020 23:12

Thats good news indeed. Was speaking to a marketing guy in a MSME which supplies small parts to DPSU. Was all gloomy on how Q4 of 2019 march specially was bad since all funding was diverted to fight covid-19. Looks like there was an order to send back unutilized funds.
I dont mind rafale, apache, p-8i, sea-gaurdian etc getting delayed if it benefits local industry in the short term.
Only S-400 and ASW Romeo should not be delayed.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Kartik » 05 May 2020 23:14

Rakesh wrote:The author of the article below states that it is his personal opinion. Nevertheless, FWIW.....

Vivek Lall exits shows, Lockheed Martin not sure of F-21 deal with India
https://defencenewsofindia.com/vivek-la ... -of-india/
05 May 2020

TBH, this article is written in a way that is very similar in writing style to IDRW. Mostly speculation, IMO.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Mollick.R » 05 May 2020 23:22

From Twitter....

Saurav Jha @SJha1618· 11h
Contrary to what some think, there are quite a few
@DRDO_India developed systems that have passed military trials & have DAC approval for induction, but are not being built simply because *no* orders are being placed. And these systems have huge private sector participation.

Saurav Jha @SJha1618· 12h
Before some analyst thinks that orders for domestic systems means a CBM for PSUs, note that the major orders that have got delayed either have a large value-added contribution from the private sector such as the Akash SAM or are even led by it such as the Pinaka MBRL.

Saurav Jha @SJha1618· 12h
You have all these naysayers who keep lamenting about how HAL or somebody else is not building this or that fast enough, when the rate of production is contingent on the size and timing of orders.

Saurav Jha @SJha1618· 12h
Read this & you will understand what I have said all these years. Committed liabilities from imports, ensure that actual orders on indigenous systems keep getting deferred. Which is why things like 6 X Pinaka, 83 X Tejas Mk1A keep getting delayed.


Link
https://twitter.com/sjha1618?lang=en
Last edited by Mollick.R on 05 May 2020 23:27, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Mollick.R » 05 May 2020 23:26

Saurav Jha (@SJha1618) was referring and added link to this article in his last tweet.


Savings from delayed foreign deals to push indigenous projects
By Manu Pubby :eek: , ET Bureau|Last Updated: May 05, 2020, 03.26 PM IST

New Delhi: The defence ministry has initiated a process to identify potential savings that can be made this year due to delays in production orders placed on foreign companies and could channel some of the resources to fast-track indigenous programmes that hold the key to sustaining local industry.

Source said that foreign equipment manufacturers are being approached to understand which programmes are likely to see delayed deliveries and the way forward would be to defer payments for late deliveries, without invoking the penalty clause.

Once the exercise is complete, the ministry would be able to understand how much of its committed liability payments could be freed up this year and could be channelised for Make in India projects.

Several large ongoing programmes consume 90% of the defence capital budget, including the Rafale fighter jet deal, which is likely to see delayed deliveries by three to six months. With these large payments likely to be deferred, there is fresh focus on seven Make in India programmes that are in the final stages of signing and have the potential of sustaining more than 2,000 defence manufacturing units and MSMEs.

The largest of these is the Rs 39,000 crore order for 83 Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) that is currently awaiting a nod from the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS).

The order for two regiments of Akash air defence missiles worth over Rs 6,000 crore is also in the final stages and could be fast tracked to be signed this year.

The third project that could be fast-tracked is the order for six regiments of Pinaka Multi Barrel Rocket Launchers (MBRL) that has been pending since 2017.

On the shipbuilding front, four big projects hold the key to private sector yards making it out of the Covid-19 crisis. These include the order for eight Fast Patrol Vessels

While combined, these programmes are worth much more than the capital budget, kick-starting them would require only a 10% advance payment that could be channelised from savings made from foreign payments.

(This story has not been edited by economictimes.com and is auto–generated from a syndicated feed we subscribe to.)


https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/savings-from-delayed-foreign-deals-to-push-indigenous-projects/articleshow/75541978.cms

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Karan M » 06 May 2020 00:06

arvin wrote:Thats good news indeed. Was speaking to a marketing guy in a MSME which supplies small parts to DPSU. Was all gloomy on how Q4 of 2019 march specially was bad since all funding was diverted to fight covid-19. Looks like there was an order to send back unutilized funds.
I dont mind rafale, apache, p-8i, sea-gaurdian etc getting delayed if it benefits local industry in the short term.
Only S-400 and ASW Romeo should not be delayed.


Rafale, ASW, S-400 are the real important ones. We have already started making payments for them. Apache, P-8I are not as essential vs the rest. But if they are delayed, we should delay the payments too as the article notes.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby nam » 06 May 2020 00:53

GoI has to spend money to prop up the economy and the best way to do that is to order Indian kit. There is no point just release money in to RBI & banks.

GoI needs to give out large orders for kit with maximum local content. Need of the hour is creating jobs and growing the local industry.

For those who question if Mk2, TEDBF/ORCA is worth it? It is simple mathematics.

Even if we save 30-40M per jet, there is roughly 400-500 required. You are looking at 15B-20B in savings!

Mk2 & TEDBF/ORCA development would probably cost only 3B!

Why would you buy more Rafale, if you have ORCA with F414, AESA, SFDR, all sort of A2G? What more will Rafale bring on the table.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Rakesh » 06 May 2020 01:11

nam, in the long term you are spot on.

Short term (> 5 - 7 years) the IAF will have to acquire additional aircraft (either Su-30MKIs or those 21 MiG-29s or 36 more Rafales) to make up the shortfall. The numbers will continue to dwindle, so some aircraft (in small quantities) will have to be acquired.

With the investments made at Hasimara and Ambala, the IAF will likely acquire 36 more Rafales. But that will happen in a few years down the road. Probably before the 2024 election season. It is best to induct aircraft already in service versus inducting a brand new type i.e. Gripen E, F-21, F-18, F-15EX, Eurofighter Typhoon, MiG-35 or Su-35.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Rakesh » 07 May 2020 01:43

somdev wrote:Backbone of Israeli Air Force is Falcons. They are upgrading older versions to Sufa standards. If we see dispassionately F16s are not that bad and have been used in many combat missions

Adding a "new phoren" 4th generation plane to the inventory is pointless. It is best to standardize on what is currently in the fleet i.e. small orders of Su-30MKIs, MiG-29s or Rafales. The Tejas must serve as the backbone of the IAF. She must be India's mass produced fighter (in triple digits). Doing piecemeal orders of 40 Mk1s, then 83 Mk1As only serves to limit the program.

The F-35 is a much better aircraft, compared to any 4th generation aircraft out there, but in the current geopolitical scenario she will not pan out. That situation may change in the future.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Karan M » 07 May 2020 03:32

Somdev, just look at the pic you posted. How maneuverable are those aircraft with the kind of warloads they are carrying? Those high drag pylons, extra fuel pods, all sorts of extra pods because the aircraft is out of space, radomes added willy nilly - all drag generators. What do you think that aircraft's signature is? What kind of IADS can it go up against, so loaded? What's the growth potential?

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Karan M » 07 May 2020 04:53

somdev wrote:
Karan M wrote:Somdev, just look at the pic you posted. How maneuverable are those aircraft with the kind of warloads they are carrying? Those high drag pylons, extra fuel pods, all sorts of extra pods because the aircraft is out of space, radomes added willy nilly - all drag generators. What do you think that aircraft's signature is? What kind of IADS can it go up against, so loaded? What's the growth potential?


Karanji agreed ... all valid points. Structural reinforcement from the ground up to increase number of hours, or additional tanks, maneuvering factors all very valid. But there is also commonality and evolution to F35s. Also, India will never become an aggressor force even against Pakistan. We will continue with our defense posturing and a few standoff strikes. So operationally how much of agility is required is a question mark.


This is a very very dangerous assumption to make. What you are saying is we really don't need top of the line aircraft as we will never go to war against Pak. How do we know? Was Kargil not a limited war? What if it had escalated? Second, the assumption that even stand-off strikes will not precipitate an air war and a BVR fight where agility counts for as much as EW in order to rapidly avoid incoming ordinance.

Why do we need an "evolution" to the F-35, when there is no indication its even on offer for now. Buy what you can optimize for now. The F-16 while capable does come with significant compromises and strings attached, and is an airframe the PAF understands very well.

I guess Israel faces similar kind of hostility but are doing good with Falcons.


Israel has a mixed F-35, F-15 and F-16 fleet. Its primary opponents - the Syrians are defunct. The Iranians have obsolete weapons. The Egyptians are only now modernizing - their F-16s didn't even have AMRAAMs or the latest FCR, the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia which have fancy kit all tacitly cooperate with Israel, and don't pose a direct threat. Plus Israel is a nuke power and none of the others are.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Kartik » 07 May 2020 05:35

Whatever anyone wants to say, the F-16 is and will continue to remain a great fighter into the coming decades as well. For me, from a cost vs capability POV, the F-21 was right next to the Rafale. Rafale being costlier to acquire and with higher operating costs and costlier weapons.

From the Paki POV, it would have been a morale breaker to see the latest and most advanced F-16 variant in IAF colors when it isn't available to them and even if it was, they cannot afford it in any meaningful numbers.

All of which is now seemingly moot, given that the MRCA will most likely be canned or just continue to meander meaninglessly without ever resulting in a contract.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Rakesh » 07 May 2020 05:36

somdev wrote:There is merit in your argument but only if Tejas and it's variants find a good export market. That makes it sustainable and provides an evolution roadmap.

The reason why the F-16 is a success story is because the host nation's air force purchased them in large quantities. The USAF purchased nearly 2,300 airframes from Lockheed Martin. See below...

http://www.f-16.net/fleet-reports_article1.html
The United States Air Force is obviously by far the biggest F-16 customer. A total of 2,256 F-16 airframes have been delivered - more than 50% of the total F-16 production.

The total F-16 production is more than 4,000 aircraft. Some estimates reach the 4,500 mark I believe. But more than half of the entire F-16 production has seen service with the USAF at some point in time. So when Lockheed Martin markets the F-16 to other countries, potential "customer" nations see that the host country themselves operate the aircraft in large numbers.

If the USAF did not purchase the F-16 or ordered them in small quantities which potential "customer" nation would want to buy the plane? So when you are highlighting the positives of the F-16, please remember who the largest operator of the F-16 is. It is not Israel, Egypt, Turkey or Netherlands (all Viper operators). It is the United States Air Force.

Evolution roadmap in the F-16 fleet (from Block 1 to Block 50/52) was only possible because the USAF operated all those Blocks themselves. The only exception to that is the Block 60 variant of the UAE Air Force and the upcoming Block 70/72 variant for the Bahrain Air Force. And the main reason why the USAF does not operate those two advanced variants is because they are invested into the F-35 program. Any "large scale" investment in the Block 60 or Block 70 aircraft would result in diverting funds away from F-35s to F-16s. And that is nothing something the USAF is keen to do.

You are talking about export for the Tejas, but missing the main driving force behind those exports. And that is the Indian Air Force. These piecemeal orders of 40 and 83 does little to boost confidence. Double up the Mk1A order and I will guarantee exports.

When a customer sees that the IAF operates 200+ Tejas variants (40 Mk1s + 83 Mk1As + another 83 Mk1As), they see not just numbers. They see confidence. When a customer sees that HAL is churning out Tejas aircraft like pancakes, they see viability and sustainability. When a customer sees the IAF and HAL partnering together to develop and roll out an evolution roadmap for the Tejas, they see an aircraft that has a future.

To the customer, perception is the foundation. If the customer cannot see it, they will never believe it.

The end goal for India is not to fund or sustain another country's MIC, but rather your own. The F-16 is a great aircraft (and so are all the other aircraft in the MMRCA contest), but that does not mean India should sacrifice her aviation industry for it. Why purchase foreign aircraft in triple digits (114), when you can do the same exact thing with your own aircraft?

MMRCA 2.0 should be silver bullet purchase and not a large scale one. And thanks to COVID-19, that dream will likely become a reality. None of the aircraft in the MMRCA contest would cost India less than $20 billion. And that is just the upfront cost. Money better invested in the Tejas program.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Karan M » 07 May 2020 05:52

Kartik wrote:Whatever anyone wants to say, the F-16 is and will continue to remain a great fighter into the coming decades as well. For me, from a cost vs capability POV, the F-21 was right next to the Rafale. Rafale being costlier to acquire and with higher operating costs and costlier weapons.

From the Paki POV, it would have been a morale breaker to see the latest and most advanced F-16 variant in IAF colors when it isn't available to them and even if it was, they cannot afford it in any meaningful numbers.

All of which is now seemingly moot, given that the MRCA will most likely be canned or just continue to meander meaninglessly without ever resulting in a contract.


If the US offers a great deal you might still see it in the IAF.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby srai » 07 May 2020 07:12

There’s no money for MMRCA 2.0 ($15 billion+).

If it still somehow goes through, then domestic programs will suffer drastically. No funds left over for them.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby arvin » 07 May 2020 08:39

Enlarged F16 is for those customers who want to operate a bomb truck but with added cost benefit of single engine operation. LM put it up to woo customers away from F18 and F15, both from boeing stables.
We already have Mirage and Su 30 that fit in that role and can do more.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Aditya_V » 07 May 2020 09:18

Any new aircraft takes atleast 5 years to induct, and in the case of F16 we do not have commonality in spare parts or weapons, so given US prices it shoot up OPEC costs. With LCA and variants you induct numbers in our local production eco system which will lead to quicker development of drones and 5th, 6th gen aircraft.

The F16 is a quick solution which will get you nowhere. Greeks or Turks dont use F16 against each other, given Paki establishment links in the US, we cant use the F16 unless Pakis nuke us. They will be just show case item's. The US is a nice place but sometimes we need to think about the country and not personal experiences. The Babu mafia who mostly send thier kids abroad will negotiate thier kids citizenship with this but as a whole they will never used against Pakistan and it will be wasting resources in platform as the home country will soon retire at the cost of home grown (Indian) projects.

If we had to get on the F-16 bandwagon the time was 20 years ago, 2005-2045 would have been good service period, F 16 entering service in 2026, with fresh Infrastructure, spare parts, US training, Purchase of Amraams, AGM 65, AGM 84 etc etc costing a bomb makes no sense whatsoever, dont go by the basic airframe cost.

After induction it takes 1 or 2 years for the Airforce to develop tactics around an aircraft. If we really want to ally with the US, may be they can look the other way with respect to S400 in about 5 years time enter into a contract for 2 squardons of F-35's enterign service from 2030.
Last edited by Aditya_V on 07 May 2020 12:59, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby srai » 07 May 2020 11:56

^^^
+1

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Rakesh » 07 May 2020 17:45

srai wrote:There’s no money for MMRCA 2.0 ($15 billion+).

If it still somehow goes through, then domestic programs will suffer drastically. No funds left over for them.

$15 billion is being charitable. Factor in the factory, the tools, the jigs, weapons, etc and it will cost minimum of $20 billion.

Anyone who thinks 114 MMRCA is good value for money is out of touch with reality.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby arvin » 07 May 2020 18:12

F16 uses toxic hydrazine in its emergency power unit.
It will require specialist equipment and skills to handle at air bases.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6139486/

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Manish_Sharma » 07 May 2020 20:14

somdev wrote:Indira Gandhi forced Soviet jets upon India for her own selfish reasons


Are you claiming that USA was ready to sell f16 to Bharat in 70s when usa gave f16s to Porkistan, but Indira deliberately refused to take f16s?

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Vivek K » 07 May 2020 20:33

In present time - India is back at the Marut level and perhaps a little beyond with LCA Mk1A and Mk2 (arguable since Marut was also in phased development when shut down). At this time purchasing Rafales, F16s/MMRCAs will once again kill domestic industry.

India uses arms purchases to buy loyalty of nations and calls them friends (out of necessity). Nations do not have friends. Some on this forum (i call them roosi rakshak) cannot get over purchases of so called "cheap" roosi hardware (supposedly cheap, yet there was a secondary, off the books account maintained where India paid back billions upto the early 2000s). These RRs assign charitable motives for these purchases, sharing of tech etc forgetting that roos does the same with Cheen. So it sells to the highest bidder just like France and every other nation.

If India wants to survive, it needs to be selfish, defend and develop domestic industry. Any attempt to harm these industries and the MIC should be treated like war (external threats) or treason (internal corruption) - which is what it ultimately is.


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