MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

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Rakesh
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

KSingh wrote:Good luck getting that done in india. MMRCA was a total nightmare to negotiate and never worked out given complex workshare commitments. Now you want the US to give their contemporary systems to a non-NATO partner with S400 and that too to assemble in India? Just to be in a position to receive that offer will take 10+ years of negotiations

Then add on Indian babudom- it took 8 years just to finalise the C295 deal, this isn’t cutting edge offensive platforms.

I simply don’t think india can ever traverse something as complicated as a MRFA/F35 buy, the system isn’t dynamic enough for it
I do hope - for India's sake - that what you have said above is true. American tech is great. Quite frankly it is the best out there.

However, it is the US perfidy that is concerning. One of the key lessons from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is the deceitfulness and untrustworthiness of the American political system. I sincerely hope our military leadership is taking notes.

I would rather the IAF end up with a smaller phoren MRFA (36 - 54 Rafales) and focus on a larger Tejas Mk2 order (to make up the numbers) than acquiring 114 F-21s, F-15EXs, F-18SHs or F-35s. Acquiring transports, helicopters, maritime patrol aircraft from the US is one thing. Acquiring a US fighter is a scenario that is best avoided by both the IAF and the IN.

From a technical standpoint, it will be challenging for the services who would want to incorporate Indian-origin weaponry on US platforms i.e. the recent Astra Mk2 drop test from a Su-30MKI or to upgrade components of US platforms i.e. Uttam AESA on Su-30MKI. And from a geopolitical standpoint, it will tie the Indian Govt's hands. 114 is not a small number by any stretch. 114 airframes is a significant chunk of airpower.

JMVHO, but I find the US outreach to India (since President Bill Clinton's visit to India in 2000) to be hypocritical at best. In 2022, it is no longer even outreach, but outright coercion and blackmail. And the list of geopolitical analysts (WASPs and Brown Sahibs in the US & Western Europe and even certain citizenry in India) pushing for an Indian embrace of the US is alarming.

The only antidote to this malady is the services need to have a laser vision focus on self reliance.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by KSingh »

Rakesh wrote:
KSingh wrote:Good luck getting that done in india. MMRCA was a total nightmare to negotiate and never worked out given complex workshare commitments. Now you want the US to give their contemporary systems to a non-NATO partner with S400 and that too to assemble in India? Just to be in a position to receive that offer will take 10+ years of negotiations

Then add on Indian babudom- it took 8 years just to finalise the C295 deal, this isn’t cutting edge offensive platforms.

I simply don’t think india can ever traverse something as complicated as a MRFA/F35 buy, the system isn’t dynamic enough for it
I do hope - for India's sake - that what you have said above is true. American tech is great. Quite frankly it is the best out there.

However, it is the US perfidy that is concerning. One of the key lessons from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is the deceitfulness and untrustworthiness of the American political system. I sincerely hope our military leadership is taking notes.

I would rather the IAF end up with a smaller phoren MRFA (36 - 54 Rafales) and focus on a larger Tejas Mk2 order (to make up the numbers) than acquiring 114 F-21s, F-15EXs, F-18SHs or F-35s. Acquiring transports, helicopters, maritime patrol aircraft from the US is one thing. Acquiring a US fighter is a scenario that is best avoided by both the IAF and the IN.

From a technical standpoint, it will be challenging for the services who would want to incorporate Indian-origin weaponry on US platforms i.e. the recent Astra Mk2 drop test from a Su-30MKI or to upgrade components of US platforms i.e. Uttam AESA on Su-30MKI. And from a geopolitical standpoint, it will tie the Indian Govt's hands. 114 is not a small number by any stretch. 114 airframes is a significant chunk of airpower.

JMVHO, but I find the US outreach to India (since President Bill Clinton's visit to India in 2000) to be hypocritical at best. In 2022, it is no longer even outreach, but outright coercion and blackmail. And the list of geopolitical analysts (WASPs and Brown Sahibs in the US & Western Europe and even certain citizenry in India) pushing for an Indian embrace of the US is alarming.

The only antidote to this malady is the services need to have a laser vision focus on self reliance.
The babudom on both sides was made for each other.

Even the US-Indo nuclear deal that took the political capital of both sides to get pushed through led exactly nowhere. Even modi channeling his energies into this early on in his PMship failed to get ANY output on that front.


If this a question of buying some MQ-9B off the shelf then that could be done within 6 months if both sides made it a priority but the F35? The US is VERY sensitive about that (and rightly so), it was already a long shot to sell it to a non-NATO, non-treaty wild card like india but the S400 has really signalled the end of that prospect especially since Feb 2022. The US says they’d be worried that S400’s threat database would be updated with F35’s signature and this would then be assessed by the Russians- a legitimate fear. Look at the drama that ensued when a British F35B bellyflopped off the end of QE, the US was backing every effort to get that airframe off the seabed (and apparently there were Russian assets in the area trying to recover it also)

So the US’s tactic is to offer their legacy fleet (that they themselves are largely pushing to the side/out the door) F16/15/18 for india. The F35 will only really be an option for an india when they have their 6th gen fighter ready or in 15 years when the tech is not so cutting edge and AMCA is an option.

Like I said, it’s beyond a long shot but the concern is that lusting for this has already begun inside IAF and now AMCA is on the chopping block just like LCA MK.2.


If squadron strength was really a concern they’d order another 2 LCA MK1A squadrons and 2-3 more Rafale and call an end to the entire MRFA saga as they focus on LCA MK.2 and AMCA but they are doing the exact opposite
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by nachiket »

Rakesh wrote: https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... bha6_wNGUQ ---> IAF is considering 4.5 or 5th gen combat aircraft under MRFA - IAF Chief
Where and when did the IAF chief say this? I am unable to find a source. There is only one 5th gen aircraft being sold internationally and that one is unavailable to India. I am sure the IAF chief knows this.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

nachiket wrote:Where and when did the IAF chief say this? I am unable to find a source. There is only one 5th gen aircraft being sold internationally and that one is unavailable to India. I am sure the IAF chief knows this.
He reportedly mentioned this at the annual press conference on 04 Oct 2022 prior to IAF Day (Oct 08th). There are multiple YouTube videos of that press conference, but I have not had an opportunity to view the entire press meet to confirm if he did say that.

Added Later: I found it. He did actually say that...this is a comedy show. See video below from 16:00

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Manish_P »

Maybe the chief foresees that if and when the GoI gives the go ahead it will have taken so long that 7th Gen will be entering services in Khanland.. and Europistan
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

The Air Chief and the rest of Air HQ realizes that MRFA - in its current avatar - is going no where. Current Avatar = 4+ Gen aircraft. They will eventually have to jump to 5th generation. The timeframe and the cost involved of the contract is not viable for a 4th generation phoren fighter.

With the Tejas having taken up the 4th generation space, what value does a phoren 4th generation aircraft really provide at this stage in the game? HAL beat its own timeline with the Mk1A. The Tejas Mk2 will come in a similar manner. DRDO is also churning out A2A and A2G weaponry with great results. India’s missile program is a huge success story. Astra Mk1, Mk2, SFDR, Rudram 1, 2 and 3, BrahMos-A, BrahMos-NG, SAAW. The list goes on.

It is Tejas all the way now. Even the OEMs know it. Production hurdles are largely overcome now, as HAL has said they can increase production (by adding lines) if export orders come through. Additional lines (and even optimizing the production of current lines) will boost the production rate. It is amazing the level of confidence that HAL has gained from manufacturing 32 single seat Tejas Mk1 fighters.

VLO is the next technological breakthrough for India. Collaboration or cooperation on the AMCA program will be the carrot to dangle for a 5th Gen MRFA contract. Watch out for that. They may go in for an additional 2 - 3 Rafale squadrons and reboot the entire MRFA contest.

P.S. If they do that, it should solve the GOI’s geopolitical dilemma of how to explain to the Khan of why their beloved F-35 did not win. The fancy Cornish Hen will not even enter the contest due to the S-400. Kill two birds with one stone.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Pratyush »

Perhaps, it would be prudent to become a partner in the British or the French program.

While continuing with the AMCA as the Indian F35 equivalent.

Otherwise what Rakesh says applies.

Besides a foreign design that first entered service nearly 20 years and gets procured in 2025 or 2030 by India makes no sense.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by BenG »

Rakesh wrote:
nachiket wrote:Where and when did the IAF chief say this? I am unable to find a source. There is only one 5th gen aircraft being sold internationally and that one is unavailable to India. I am sure the IAF chief knows this.
He reportedly mentioned this at the annual press conference on 04 Oct 2022 prior to IAF Day (Oct 08th). There are multiple YouTube videos of that press conference, but I have not had an opportunity to view the entire press meet to confirm if he did say that.

Added Later: I found it. He did actually say that...this is a comedy show. See video below from 16:00
Rakesh-ji, this chief is shrewd and not a clown. Its unfortunate his intelligence does not help Tejas program or AMCA. If he wants foreign 5th gen fighter, he is directly contradicting his predecessor who said India's only 5th gen investment will be AMCA. If air chief wanted 5th gen AMCA faster, he should put efforts in that direction. I have never seen him utter anything AMCA specific like fast tracking technology demonstrator or first flight. The 'special purpose vehicle' for the purpose has not been finalized. IAF chief could have taken the lead here to help set up the joint venture company with a board that has clear objectives making it independent of HAL and other defense ministry bureaucracy. He has chosen to use MRFA to chase after F-35 instead. The institutional thinking in IAF has to change to foster an ecosystem of invention and innovation not juggad. Despite having humongous human resources capital, their efforts are largely wasted doing paper work for RFI and RFP.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Cain Marko »

We are all assuming it's the f35..I wouldn't put it past the iaf to do another mki special with pakfa.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by BenG »

Cain Marko wrote:We are all assuming it's the f35..I wouldn't put it past the iaf to do another mki special with pakfa.
IAF chief has stated in that interview they have put 12 Su-30mki in 'deferred category'. There is no chance of pakfa mki in next 10 years. The geo-political realities have changed so much. Russia has played its hand in ukraine and lost. It will become secondary to china both as a player in technology and geopolitics. Unless china buys PAK fa, India won't mki it. Remember Su-27 and S-400 buy by china, IAF immediately jumped that bandwagon. China has no need for PAK FA anymore. They don't even need the new engines and avionics for which Su-35 was bought.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by nachiket »

Rakesh wrote: Added Later: I found it. He did actually say that...this is a comedy show. See video below from 16:00
Thanks for finding that. Quite the facepalm moment.
Cain Marko wrote:We are all assuming it's the f35..I wouldn't put it past the iaf to do another mki special with pakfa.
You mean the aircraft which the IAF itself rejected before and which is not even in widespread service with the Russian air force.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Cain Marko »

Cain Marko wrote:We are all assuming it's the f35..I wouldn't put it past the iaf to do another mki special with pakfa.
BenG wrote: IAF chief has stated in that interview they have put 12 Su-30mki in 'deferred category'. There is no chance of pakfa mki in next 10 years. The geo-political realities have changed so much. Russia has played its hand in ukraine and lost. It will become secondary to china both as a player in technology and geopolitics. Unless china buys PAK fa, India won't mki it. Remember Su-27 and S-400 buy by china, IAF immediately jumped that bandwagon. China has no need for PAK FA anymore. They don't even need the new engines and avionics for which Su-35 was bought.
Benji, I don't think Chinese procurement was the compelling reason for iaf's purchase of said hardware. You're own example of the su35 suggests otherwise.
Natchiket wrote: You mean the aircraft which the IAF itself rejected before and which is not even in widespread service with the Russian air force.
Yeah I know it seems illogical and unreasonable. But then. We are talking about mod and iaf procurement system here. :mrgreen:
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by VishnuS »

Rakesh wrote:
nachiket wrote:Where and when did the IAF chief say this? I am unable to find a source. There is only one 5th gen aircraft being sold internationally and that one is unavailable to India. I am sure the IAF chief knows this.
He reportedly mentioned this at the annual press conference on 04 Oct 2022 prior to IAF Day (Oct 08th). There are multiple YouTube videos of that press conference, but I have not had an opportunity to view the entire press meet to confirm if he did say that.

Added Later: I found it. He did actually say that...this is a comedy show. See video below from 16:00
Rakesh ji, doesn't this mean that IAF is officially done with MRFA fiasco....

All 4+ Gen Fighters OEMs can finally forget about MRFA. Coming to 5th Gen, only F 35 fits the bill.

I remember that we had gone for MRCA instead of Mirage 2K single vendor after Kargil War....

Now, with past experience with Rafale fiasco, I doubt GOI would relent for single vendor even if they wanted too...

Maybe I am too optimistic for my own good.... But I think MRFA story is done for....
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by KSingh »

VishnuS wrote:
Rakesh wrote: He reportedly mentioned this at the annual press conference on 04 Oct 2022 prior to IAF Day (Oct 08th). There are multiple YouTube videos of that press conference, but I have not had an opportunity to view the entire press meet to confirm if he did say that.

Added Later: I found it. He did actually say that...this is a comedy show. See video below from 16:00
Rakesh ji, doesn't this mean that IAF is officially done with MRFA fiasco....

All 4+ Gen Fighters OEMs can finally forget about MRFA. Coming to 5th Gen, only F 35 fits the bill.

I remember that we had gone for MRCA instead of Mirage 2K single vendor after Kargil War....

Now, with past experience with Rafale fiasco, I doubt GOI would relent for single vendor even if they wanted too...

Maybe I am too optimistic for my own good.... But I think MRFA story is done for....
Done? It hasn’t even begun. All IAF briefings in the last 3 months have reiterated it. In the future force presentation that leaked MRFA was front and centre of their 2035 force structure. Even during the CAS’s latest MRFA pitch he said ASQR are being finalised for RFP to be released soon (so 20 year countdown is yet to commence)

This latest 5th gen utterance just shows how beyond farcical this whole saga is. Considering he can only be talking about the F35 (as no other 5th gen fighter in existence could be offered to india) and the F35 itself is not actually cleared for export to india as of today (and good luck getting such approvals considering S400 purchase) I have no idea what planets these generals live on.

Their desire to kill off all indigenous efforts is reaching intolerable levels, it’s not enough to target LCA MK.2, now AMCA has to be curtailed by MRFA also. I had always said that once they get their wish their best target will be harming the AMCA, they are well ahead of schedule on that front now
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Pratyush »

Maybe, time has come for the relieving from service of the chief for losing the confidence of the civilian government.

As the government is pushing for Atmanirbhar Bharat. . The chief is pushing for an imported solution. At the expense of an indigenous product.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

Pratyush wrote:Maybe, time has come for the relieving from service of the chief for losing the confidence of the civilian government.

As the government is pushing for Atmanirbhar Bharat. The chief is pushing for an imported solution. At the expense of an indigenous product.
Pratyush, the Air Chief is reiterating what Air HQ believes. This is not one man pushing for a phoren MRFA, rather it is the entire senior leadership of the IAF. Your post is not appropriate IMVHO.

If the Air Chief is relieved from service, the next Air Chief will repeat the same thing verbatim as his predecessor. In the name of Atmanirbhar Bharat, who all is the Civilian Government going to ask to resign?

And that is a sure fire strategy to destroy morale in the service. The dismissal of Admiral Vishnu Bhagwat in 1998 was not easy for the Navy. It has a negative ripple effect that goes down the ranks. Flag Rank Officers who are being groomed to take over their next leadership role, suddenly find themselves shunted to other duties, to make up for the sudden vacuum. The resignation of Admiral DK Joshi caused the office of CNS to be absent for a couple of months. We have had Chiefs who died in service and that is shocking enough, but dismissal is not something that should ever be taken lightly.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

nachiket wrote:Thanks for finding that. Quite the facepalm moment.
BenG wrote:Rakesh-ji...

No -ji please. Thanks.
BenG wrote:this chief is shrewd and not a clown. Its unfortunate his intelligence does not help Tejas program or AMCA. If he wants foreign 5th gen fighter, he is directly contradicting his predecessor who said India's only 5th gen investment will be AMCA. If air chief wanted 5th gen AMCA faster, he should put efforts in that direction. I have never seen him utter anything AMCA specific like fast tracking technology demonstrator or first flight. The 'special purpose vehicle' for the purpose has not been finalized. IAF chief could have taken the lead here to help set up the joint venture company with a board that has clear objectives making it independent of HAL and other defense ministry bureaucracy. He has chosen to use MRFA to chase after F-35 instead. The institutional thinking in IAF has to change to foster an ecosystem of invention and innovation not juggad. Despite having humongous human resources capital, their efforts are largely wasted doing paper work for RFI and RFP.
When this Air Chief held the rank of Air Vice Marshal, he served as the Assistant Chief of Air Staff Operations (Air Defence) at Air Headquarters. He was summoned to the Supreme Court (among other senior officers) during the Rafale court case. I believe it was him who stated that the Su-30MKI is a 3rd generation aircraft and the Rafale is a 4th generation aircraft. I wonder what yardstick Air HQ uses to determine aircraft generations.

At the recent press conference, he stated, "The quest for acquiring a 4.5 or 5th generation MRFA continues and that Air HQ has analyzed all the RFI responses." So MRFA does include fifth generation platforms, because that is what this Air Chief is saying. However if no OEM provided a RFI of a 5th generation platform, then this discussion is pointless. But if an OEMs did respond to the RFI by providing data on their 5th generation fighter, that would be interesting. The only 5th generation platform being sold globally is the F-35, but see this tweet below.

https://twitter.com/DefenceDecode/statu ... 7ci40xgE-w ---> India is expecting shipments for the 3rd operational squadron of ADS S-400 to start arriving from Russia next month. India has till now received two squadrons of the S-400 from Russia.

Common sense suggests the F-35 is out of the mix, especially considering the above. Most Western European nations - barring France - and Allied Asian nations are buying the F-35. I don't see how or why Lockheed Martin or the US Govt would sell the F-35 to India and endanger the platform for all these other partner nations. Unless a work around arrangement can be reached to have both platforms (F-35 and S-400) operate with each other, a F-35 buy for India is going nowhere.

But if it is not the F-35, then who could potentially be the other contenders?

Japan has the Mitsubishi F-X (6th Gen Program), France has the FCAS (6th Gen Program) and UK has the Tempest (6th Gen Program). None of these will qualify, as they will be expensive to purchase and will also be out of reach (geopolitically). Turkey will not sell the TF-X (5th Gen Program) to India due to the Pakistan-Azerbaijan-Turkey nexus. That leaves only two viable sources (that I know of) and they are;

* Russia with the Su-57 and Su-75
* South Korea with the KF-21 Boramae

ACM Chaudhari visited South Korea in Dec 2021 (and he also visited Japan in May 2022). But the KF-21 could be blocked due to Uncle Sam. If that route is closed, it will only leave Russia. Could Sukhoi actually give a RFI for the Su-57 or Su-75 to Air HQ? The Su-57 was rejected once by the IAF and Su-75 exists only as a mockup. Or could KAI (Korean Aerospace Industries) get the okay to sell the KF-21 Boramae to India?

Going back to the F-35 (or any American fighter), please see the latest from Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna;

https://twitter.com/RoKhanna/status/157 ... 7ci40xgE-w ---> The US should make it clear to the Saudis that we will cut off their aviation parts supply & stop Raytheon & Boeing from selling to them if they cut oil output to strengthen Putin and thereby fleece Americans. We are not helpless. The Saudis depend on us.

Congressman Ro Khanna is the same individual who introduced the CAATSA waiver in the US Congress. Replacing the word 'Saudi' in the above tweet with India is very possible. Especially with India continuing to buy oil from Russia. I am glad we did not end up with the F-16 Block 70/72 during the Single Engine fighter contest. I really and sincerely hope that the IAF does not have to bear a similar ignominy above, because they went lusting after gold plated fighters, when they should be focusing on large quantities of Tejas Mk1As and Tejas Mk2s.

Just a word of caution with that strategy as well. Not that I need to mention it to either of you, but stating the obvious - the Tejas is powered by a General Electric turbofan. If Congressman Khanna can claim to stop Raytheon & Boeing from selling to the Saudis, what prevents him or another Congressman or Congresswoman from asking General Electric to terminate business with India, because the US perceives that India is not toeing the American geopolitical game plan? But my limited mango abdul knowledge tells me that is a risk that India must take. Focus on Tejas.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

VishnuS wrote:Rakesh ji, doesn't this mean that IAF is officially done with MRFA fiasco....

All 4+ Gen Fighters OEMs can finally forget about MRFA. Coming to 5th Gen, only F 35 fits the bill.

I remember that we had gone for MRCA instead of Mirage 2K single vendor after Kargil War....

Now, with past experience with Rafale fiasco, I doubt GOI would relent for single vendor even if they wanted too...

Maybe I am too optimistic for my own good.... But I think MRFA story is done for....
No -ji please.

The GOI does not have the money for this program. And even if the GOI finds the garden where money grows on trees, there is also the political problem. Another Rafale purchase and RaGa will not be just "walking" on his Bharat Jodo Yatra. He will beat the drum of corruption at every opportunity he gets, especially this close to the 2024 elections.

MRFA - in its current form (4th gen aircraft) - is going nowhere. But Air HQ is keeping this program alive for reasons best known to them. But as time passes, it will transition to a 5th gen contest. They are only in RFI stage and this is Indian procurement we are talking about. In the MoD, procurement is measured in decades and that is considered a shining achievement. The only exception to that was the VVIP aircraft for global air travel, but considering who the customer is...it comes as no surprise. The Tejas Mk2 will make a phoren 4th generation MRFA redundant.

However, an outcome that I did not want to happen...appears to be making headway. Air HQ appears to be repeating the mistake of the 1980s with the Mirage 2000 and MiG-29 acquisitions. The IAF has two Rafale squadrons now (and another 10 - 15 more airframes will be acquired to make up for attrition losses during her service with the IAF). But another 4th generation fighter of around 36 - 54 aircraft will be acquired, with promises of license production (but that will never occur). The exact same scenario played out in the 1980s.

My hope rests on the MRCBF contest with the Navy. A win for Dassault there, will open the door for another 2 - 3 more Rafale squadrons for the IAF. And that is as much money the GOI should invest in a phoren, 4th generation fighter.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by KSingh »

Pratyush wrote:Maybe, time has come for the relieving from service of the chief for losing the confidence of the civilian government.

As the government is pushing for Atmanirbhar Bharat. . The chief is pushing for an imported solution. At the expense of an indigenous product.
As Rakesh says this is not an individual, it would be too tempting to pretend it was. Even under the former head of NFTC’s CAS term LCA Mk.2 commitments dropped

What’s bizarre is that I listened to the former VCAS of IAF (retired in 2019) on the blue skies podcast and he explained exactly why imports cannot be sustained:

- high upfront costs
- limitations on technology made available to you and export downgrades
- end user restrictions
- no access to source codes
- risk of support being turned off when foreign powers dictate during crisis

So they understand the costs but their institutional line is they want 114+ of these things? It really makes me wonder what is going on inside IAF HQ. They know the downsides of the MRFA and also the chances of it happening are effectively nil but are still going through the motions with it? IAF needs saving from itself. It’s a strategic asset that is being run into the ground before our eyes. The army having some sun-standard rifles and PPE is one thing but the squadron strength evaporating whilst PLAAF expands at unprecedented levels creates such a power imbalance that india risks having no ability to credibly even defend itself let alone threaten offensive action.
Last edited by KSingh on 11 Oct 2022 02:52, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by KSingh »

Rakesh wrote: However, an outcome that I did not want to happen...appears to be making headway. Air HQ appears to be repeating the mistake of the 1980s with the Mirage 2000 and MiG-29 acquisitions. The IAF has two Rafale squadrons now (and another 10 - 15 more airframes will be acquired to make up for attrition losses during her service with the IAF). But another 4th generation fighter of around 36 - 54 aircraft will be acquired, with promises of license production (but that will never occur). The exact same scenario played out in the 1980s.
Where are you getting this from? What other fighter is coming off the shelf? I think in 2025-6 another 2 Rafale squadrons will come but that’ll be it

MRCBF is one to keep an eye on like you said- if Rafale is declared the winner there then it changes things for IAF. France seems to be offering a package deal but babudom inside MOD and the IAF’s steadfast insistence that it is 114 Rafales or nothing means this isn’t going anywhere.

I absolutely hate these open contests, they rarely deliver anything but drag on for decades in most cases. I can’t even imagine the eye rolling that goes on every time India releases an RFI/RFP amongst global OEMs and theh aren’t stupid- there’s a reason why so many simply refuse to take part (P75I) and many end in single vendor situations.

GTG is the only viable option left and thus imports should be kept to a minimum and done only on a need basis and with trusted partners (basically France and Isreal only). Remember Parrikar’s term when SPM was announced which was going to deliver MRFA, NMRH, P75 etc in vast quantities? It’s 2022 and has the SPM model launched in 2016 ever once been touched? This is simply a hopeless sector that has to be torn down and IDDM has to be the default position otherwise you may as well wave the white flag now
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

KSingh wrote:Where are you getting this from? What other fighter is coming off the shelf? I think in 2025-6 another 2 Rafale squadrons will come but that’ll be it.
It is this acquisition KSingh - that never seems to end - that is giving me this vibe. The longer this acquisition continues to stay alive, that much longer it opens the door for other OEMs to dangle their wares and the geopolitical pressures from those countries. Actually it is only one country (US) that is doing it. I really hope I am wrong and what you said above (in bold) turns out to be true.

And as for, off the shelf --- the F-16 has an open production line and the F-15EX line will soon start (with the USAF order). Only the F-18SH line is shutting down in 2023 due to lack of orders. That explains Boeing's marketing push in the MRCBF contest.
KSingh wrote:MRCBF is one to keep an eye on like you said- if Rafale is declared the winner there then it changes things for IAF. France seems to be offering a package deal but babudom inside MOD and the IAF’s steadfast insistence that it is 114 Rafales or nothing means this isn’t going anywhere.
The archaic babudom wheels can only be set in motion if the IAF continues with the 114 MRFA acquisition. Who is going to bell that cat?

I really hope Dassault wins the contest. The Navy themselves are calling it an interim acquisition, till the arrival of the TEDBF. Get the Rafale M for the Navy and end the MRFA tamasha once in for all.
KSingh wrote:I absolutely hate these open contests, they rarely deliver anything but drag on for decades in most cases. I can’t even imagine the eye rolling that goes on every time India releases an RFI/RFP amongst global OEMs and theh aren’t stupid- there’s a reason why so many simply refuse to take part (P75I) and many end in single vendor situations.
Bingo! Open contests also result in acquisitions that never achieve the desired result for the IAF and the GOI ends up spending a large sum of money, on which the return is negligible. Case in the point - the billions spent on ISE upgrades and base infrastructure for the Rafale. Now to purchase any other fighter would be a sheer waste of money. And that is why the MRFA contest must be terminated. But my worry is that is where this current contest is leading to. I am hope I am wrong.

I have seen (via video) the base infrastructure that was setup at Maharajpur AFS, Gwalior in the 1980s for the Mirage 2000. For the 80s, that base infrastructure had no equal anywhere else in the IAF. To think that the GOI never ended up following through on Dassault's offer - in the 80s - for a production line for 150 Mirage 2000s makes one shake their head in dismay. All our MiG-21 and MiG-23MF squadrons would have retired. The IAF would have no need for the Bison and there would be no need for the Rafale either (via MMRCA and now MRFA). The GOI's solution to that was three MiG-29 squadrons. Neither here nor there.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by BenG »

The main reason MMRCA failed was because we tried to do too many things in one go.
# Buy Rafale for Air force.
# buy strategic autonomy for GOI
# TOT for HAL for upgrading manufacturing facilities.
# Use 50% of offset money to prop up local industry and Ambani.
# A fraction of that 50% to prop up GTRE and Kaveri.
All these genius moves obviously shot up the cost. We wanted to subside HAL, Ambani, GTRE, Kaveri etc. But all these will come back as cost to be paid by GOI. Fortunately due to life cycle cost calculation, it became evident. The current 114 MRFA still has all these objectives and is fated to fail. The only program which can obtain these objectives is Tejas where the expenses will be direct and distinct.

We will buy a couple of Rafale squadrons after elections in 2024 are over. This will be billed as emergency purchase. We will still have 114 MRFA running though. The current 114 MRFA has essentially become a hedge against failure of Tejas mk2 for IAF. The right thing to do against falling squadrons is buying more Tejas mk1a and making sure production is enough to add at least 2 squadrons every year. When Tejas mk2 comes up, they can shift one production line after another to Tejas mk2. The production line with lowest volume should be the first to be retooled followed by the next one. We need to maintain high output even when factories are retooled for another product. The immortal MRFA will be around 10 years later too as a hedge against AMCA failure. It is a risk GOI has to live with.

IAF marshals bravely quote that they will fight with what they have. So GOI should take the decision to buy Tejas mk1a and let IAF fill squadron numbers. These plane orders need to be in such a scale that costs are kept down, exports are competitive and industrial capacity is never idle. Only with sustained orders, manufacturing technology can be automated. For 20 plane production run, there is no point in sinking money on productivity and efficiency improvements.
Last edited by BenG on 11 Oct 2022 14:13, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by KSingh »

BenG wrote:The main reason MMRCA failed was because we tried to do too many things in one go.
# Buy Rafale for Air force.
# TOT for HAL for upgrading manufacturing facilities.
# Use 50% of offset money to prop up local industry and Ambani.
# A fraction of that 50% to prop up GTRE and Kaveri.
All these genius moves obviously shot up the cost. We wanted to subside HAL, Ambani, GTRE, Kaveri etc. But all these will come back as cost to be paid by GOI. Fortunately due to life cycle cost calculation, it became evident. The current 114 MRFA still has all these objects and is fated to fail. The only program which can obtain these objectives is Tejas where the expenses will be direct and distinct.

We will buy a couple of Rafale squadrons after elections in 2024 are over. This will be billed as emergency purchase. We will still have 114 MRFA running though. The current 114 MRFA has essentially become a hedge against failure of Tejas mk2 for IAF. The right thing to do against falling squadrons is buying more Tejas mk1a and making sure production is enough to add at least 2 squadrons every year. When Tejas mk2 comes up, they can shift one production line after another to Tejas mk2. The production line with lowest volume should be the first to be retooled followed by the next one. We need to maintain high output even when factories are retooled for another product. The immortal MRFA will be around 10 years later too as a hedge against AMCA failure. It is a risk GOI has to live with.

IAF marshals bravely quote that they will fight with what they have. So GOI should take the decision to buy Tejas mk1a and let IAF fill squadron numbers. These plane orders need to be in such a scale that costs are kept down, exports are competitive and industrial capacity is never idle. Only with sustained orders, manufacturing technology can be automated. For 20 plane production run, there is no point in sinking money on productivity and efficiency improvements.
The issue is the Indian military never takes corrective steps. Everything is a hedge/half measure

So you say they *should* order more MK1A so production can go up and the squadron shortage be addressed with sincerity. And I absolutely agree with that. If they order 2-3 more MK1A squadrons now HAL can boost production to ~22-24/year from ~2026 which will make a decent dent in the retiring fleet. (If IAF can absorb so many new fighters annually is an open question of course)

But that isn’t what will happen or is happening. They have under ordered the MK1A, are doing a ‘wait and watch’ for LCA MK.2/AMCA all whilst MRFA hasn’t even gotten off the ground. It’s not like MRFA is even an overnight solution- just to get to contract signing will take 7-8 years easily, forget about deliveries.

The result is a half baked policy that will neither maintain your numbers nor hedge against failures.


It’s beyond frustrating watching this play out knowing that in 10 years nothing will have changed. They are giving up another decade but coke 2030s IAF will be struggling to remain equal with PAF let alone PLAAF. In fact I think in the next few years PAF will likely have - 1-1 parity with the IAF assets deployed to the West

No amount of jaishanker ‘thug life’ videos on YouTube or assertive speeches from Modi can change this. The world only respects strength and this current crop of military and civilian leaders are actively watching india get weaker on their watch
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by BenG »

KSingh wrote:
No amount of jaishanker ‘thug life’ videos on YouTube or assertive speeches from Modi can change this.
:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

The worst part of all this is the current govt is the most stable in decades since PM Rajiv Gandhi. Modi is the best prime minster we can field with no replacement in sight for another 10 years. If this govt can't do a 180 on imports, no one can in next 15 years. It is not for lack of trying, they are doing what is possible. But their approach also seems to be making a virtue out of making policies and procedures. They don't seem to be creating a roadmap for implementation. With LCH induction, I was expecting orders to be placed. But that did not happen. They gave it a name and did a namesake event.

WRT Foreign affairs, Recently Dr Jai Shankar seems like he is blowing the trumpet a little too loudly. :mrgreen:
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by KSingh »

BenG wrote:
KSingh wrote:
No amount of jaishanker ‘thug life’ videos on YouTube or assertive speeches from Modi can change this.
:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

The worst part of all this is the current govt is the most stable in decades since PM Rajiv Gandhi. Modi is the best prime minster we can field with no replacement in sight for another 10 years. If this govt can't do a 180 on imports, no one can in next 15 years. It is not for lack of trying, they are doing what is possible. But their approach also seems to be making a virtue out of making policies and procedures. They don't seem to be creating a roadmap for implementation. With LCH induction, I was expecting orders to be placed. But that did not happen. They gave it a name and did a namesake event.

WRT Foreign affairs, Recently Dr Jai Shankar seems like he is blowing the trumpet a little too loudly. :mrgreen:
Indeed and that’s what’s so disappointing is Modi+LS majority+3 terms was the ideal scenario one could’ve hoped for in 2014 but 8 years later and the situation is much the same.


The issue seems to be MoD-specific because other ministries have been reigned in and delivered (roads, rail, commerce, power and even MEA). MoD is a strange beast where the tail is wagging the dog. It also doesn’t seem to help that there’s been a constant revolving door at the top. I seem to remember that Modi had charge of the defence portfolio for the first 6 or so months of his PM term, then jairley, then parrikar then NS then RS. Maybe had Parrikar been there for the full 8 years things would be very different but alas it’s 2022 and we are still talking about MMRCA which was mooted in the very early 00s and laughably it’s even less tangible today than it might have been in the UPA years

It seems we get more DAC clearances these days but in recent years the Big Bang defence deals are being replaced by almost meaningless piecemeal deals like 27 Kaylani M4s or some counter drone jammers.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

Rafale, Su-35 or Super Hornet?: IAF Hunts For Next Set Of Fighter Jets To Tackle Dwindling Strength
https://www.outlookindia.com/business/r ... ews-229664
14 Oct 2022
With French, American, European and Russian military aircraft manufacturers on the radar, the IAF is looking to expedite its 2018 request for proposal for 114 multirole fighter aircraft.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by KSingh »

Rakesh wrote:Rafale, Su-35 or Super Hornet?: IAF Hunts For Next Set Of Fighter Jets To Tackle Dwindling Strength
https://www.outlookindia.com/business/r ... ews-229664
14 Oct 2022
With French, American, European and Russian military aircraft manufacturers on the radar, the IAF is looking to expedite its 2018 request for proposal for 114 multirole fighter aircraft.
What RFP? No RFP has been issued, CAS said a few weeks back they plan to release it ‘soon’ but they’ve been saying that for 3 years.


RFP—> contract signature is at least a 6-7 year process anyway. I wonder which of the aforementioned planes other than Rafale will be in production 7 years from now
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

KSingh wrote:What RFP? No RFP has been issued, CAS said a few weeks back they plan to release it ‘soon’ but they’ve been saying that for 3 years.

RFP—> contract signature is at least a 6-7 year process anyway. I wonder which of the aforementioned planes other than Rafale will be in production 7 years from now.
How long does it take to write a RFP? :lol:

RFP ===> Rafale For Production :mrgreen:
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by KSingh »

Rakesh wrote:
KSingh wrote:What RFP? No RFP has been issued, CAS said a few weeks back they plan to release it ‘soon’ but they’ve been saying that for 3 years.

RFP—> contract signature is at least a 6-7 year process anyway. I wonder which of the aforementioned planes other than Rafale will be in production 7 years from now.
How long does it take to write a RFP? :lol:

RFP ===> Rafale For Production :mrgreen:
It is a strange own, I can’t fathom what’s taken them so long to draft some text but here we are. The most farcical of farces.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/alpha_defense/statu ... PWXfM5GDRQ ---> Madhusudana Rao, Project Director of LCA Mk2, in Eurofighter Typhoon cockpit.

Image
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by ks_sachin »

Admiral I can see the rivets and the nose cone appears dirty.....and the canopy appears weathered with a yellowish tinge.

These Brits cannot even keep their aircraft clean...
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by BenG »

The plane has been away from base for so long. it is bound to get really dirty. I doubt they will allow water washing guys from nearest car garage to clean it up. It will compromise equipment safety. I'm sure Su-30 deployed to northern australia will look just as bad if not worse.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by BenG »

KSingh wrote:
Rakesh wrote: How long does it take to write a RFP? :lol:

RFP ===> Rafale For Production :mrgreen:
It is a strange own, I can’t fathom what’s taken them so long to draft some text but here we are. The most farcical of farces.
It is quite possible IAF is looking at stealth, sensor fusion or integration with unmanned wingman concepts coming from sixth-gen fighter brochures. This happened as AESA radar in MMRCA and then every manufacturer scrambled to update their brochures. We will get new brochure soon.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

BenG wrote:The plane has been away from base for so long. it is bound to get really dirty. I doubt they will allow water washing guys from nearest car garage to clean it up. It will compromise equipment safety. I'm sure Su-30 deployed to northern australia will look just as bad if not worse.
Sachin is being sarcastic saar :)
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by nachiket »

Rakesh wrote:
KSingh wrote:What RFP? No RFP has been issued, CAS said a few weeks back they plan to release it ‘soon’ but they’ve been saying that for 3 years.

RFP—> contract signature is at least a 6-7 year process anyway. I wonder which of the aforementioned planes other than Rafale will be in production 7 years from now.
How long does it take to write a RFP? :lol:

RFP ===> Rafale For Production :mrgreen:
This whole procurement has been stuck at the same insurmountable problem for years now - The IAF wants 114 Rafales but the country cannot afford 114 rafales. No one has managed to figure out a compromise. Enterprising folk have inserted Su-35's and F-15's into the discussion in recent years to make the situation look even more ridiculous than it already is.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

MRFA squadron numbers are going down :) Four squadrons = 72 aircraft and five squadrons = 90 aircraft. If you increase the number of aircraft per squadron, the number of squadrons will go down. Add the 26 MRCBF aircraft and the GOI will get an assembly line. 114 MRFA is not affordable.

https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... JAx5fMQEag ----> "IAF requires at least four or five squadrons of 4.5 generation aircraft for its inventory": CAS.

Another tweet (below) states five to six squadrons. But still showing a downward trend. So much for 114 MRFA is an absolute must have :roll:

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/15899110 ... JAx5fMQEag ---> As per our air force requirement, it's very important for us to add 4.5 generation aircraft to our inventory: Indian Air Force chief Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhari, in Jodhpur.

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/15899110 ... JAx5fMQEag ---> Definitely, we require 4.5 generation aircraft, five to six squadrons of these aircraft to meet immediate requirements: Indian Air Force chief Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhari.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Pratyush »

Nice, the MWF is the aircraft for the job.

It's everything that the IAF wants in this stupid MRCA program.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

Air HQ wants more Rafale as MRFA. That is what they want.

Let the navy come out with its decision for the MRCBF, then we will get more clarity on Rafales for IAF.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... JAx5fMQEag ---> French Defence Minister Sebastian Lecornu will be coming to India for two days at the end of this month to hold talks with Indian counterpart. French NSA also visiting in a couple of months.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Pratyush »

You are correct about the AHQ's desire for Rafales.

Shri. RNS is a capable political operator. If anyone can get a consensus. It's him.
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