MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

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ldev
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by ldev »

Unless the cost + model of HAL's licensing is abolished the Indian taxpayer will always pay the bill. Name one license manufactured aircraft in HAL's history where the Indian cost of manufacture has been lower than the price of direct imports. In the case of this latest "Buy Global, Make in India" model which is nothing more than licence manufacturing, HAL will continue with it's inefficient cost + model and the politicos can claim that India is Atmanirbhar in fighter aircraft manufacturing!!
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Karan M »

ramana wrote:
Rakesh wrote:The loser in the MRFA deal is the customer (Govt, IAF and taxpayer).
Fixed it.

The taxpayer either direct or indirect pays the bills.
You said it!
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Karan M »

ldev wrote:Unless the cost + model of HAL's licensing is abolished the Indian taxpayer will always pay the bill. Name one license manufactured aircraft in HAL's history where the Indian cost of manufacture has been lower than the price of direct imports. In the case of this latest "Buy Global, Make in India" model which is nothing more than licence manufacturing, HAL will continue with it's inefficient cost + model and the politicos can claim that India is Atmanirbhar in fighter aircraft manufacturing!!
HAL is no longer at cost plus. Each deal is negotiated separately and it is up to the GOI to agree or reject. That decision was taken quite a while back itself and has been implemented by this GOI.

https://frontline.thehindu.com/the-nati ... 820242.ece
Ananthakrishnan explained: “The intermediate wage revision (2012) is not being captured by the labour unions. Call it Part A or Part B or whatever you like, ultimately it is cash received by employees, gross salary has gone up, and crucially, it is cash outflow for the company. The unions should also keep in mind the fact that there is a sea change between the scenario in 2007 and what is prevalent today. Today, the customer (the armed forces) is cost conscious. No more can HAL bank on the time-tested ‘cost plus basis’ model. The customer insists on target pricing. HAL is trying to (re)establish itself in this changed scenario. We are also answerable to many stakeholders not just the employees.” He did not mince words when he said that labour costs in HAL were “a cause for serious concern”.
Obviously licensed production of a limited number of aircraft will cost higher than import. You are paying for the extra infra, the limited economy of scale and other issues which come with smaller production runs, plus the licensing cost/royalty, training and maintenance infrastructure. All this is rounded off across a small production run, inflating the numbers per unit. We *accept* this as the cost of indigenization, even if partial hoping it will boost local skills and also reduce the dependence on external supply.

Next, all MRFA competitors have the option of tying up with any local manufacturer and competing. As such the cost per unit is dependent on them (and the margins they are willing to bear) to win the deal. It's HAL vs the rest not HAL as a default nominated supplier as in years before.

Despite all this, the MRFA will be a capex boondoggle irrespective of who builds it.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by ldev »

Karan M wrote:....
If the cost + issue with HAL has been sorted out then that raises the problem that HAL's costs are very high as the article I have linked below states. This article is talking specifically about how negotiations between Dassault and HAL were stalemated on the original 126 Rafale deal where 108 units were to be assembled in India and how according to Dassault's assessment HAL would require 2.7x the amount of manpower for the Rafale assembly process and thereby make the overall cost such that Dassault was unable to meet it's pricing targets. Okay so the present Government decided to junk that deal as a result of this impasse on the one hand and the urgent requirements of the IAF and went via the 36 unit acquisition. But has HAL really learnt it's lesson even after the disaster the Dassault 108 deal became?

Time, questions over quality hit HAL
The length of time that state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) would have required to build French-made Rafale fighter jets in India and questions about the quality of the warplanes it would produce caused a “stalemate” in negotiations with Dassault Aviation (DA) that dragged on for nearly a decade, the Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) said in a report presented in Parliament on Wednesday.

“Five years after the bids, and after three years of [price] negotiations, there was no finalization” of a deal because of these twin issues, the CAG report said.
Giving a detailed account of the stalemate, the CAG report said Dassault claimed it would take 31.2 million man-hours to produce the 108 fighters. But, “at the time of Bench Marking in June 2011, HAL had stated that the French man hours had to be converted to Indian man hours by multiplying quoted man hours by a factor of 2.7,” the CAG observed. The auditor noted that the manpower cost in India would have been several times higher.

Interestingly, the requirement of more man-hours when arriving at the benchmark price – an indicative price that is used as a guide for price negotiations – was overlooked. This created difficulties during negotiations later with Dassault, which was no longer the L-1 (lowest price) bidder, the CAG observed.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

Prem Kumar wrote:Why is it a "different category of aircraft"? There is nothing in the MRFA contender list that cannot be adequately performed by a combination of Tejas MK2, Rafale, Su-30 and AMCA
It is a question of now (MRFA) vs future (Tejas). The irony - despite the IAF's ardent belief in it - is that MRFA will take longer to accomplish. But the IAF believes it can have it all. Just like how the Navy believes it can have everything - a second (super) carrier, six SSNs, six SSKs, etc. The services wish list does not translate into budget reality. So the services are constantly running after utopia, while ignoring what is available at home. This is detrimental to their own capability + they lose valuable personnel operating aging platforms and local platforms never progress.

There is also the (flawed) belief that technology from the MRFA must flow into the AMCA program. Again, not going to happen...but that is what the IAF wants. Every decision ties into the sustainment of importing.

The IAF wants a ready made platform, but refuses to work with local manufacturers to tailor a platform to suit their needs. Its this attitude that fosters an environment ripe for importing.
Prem Kumar wrote:What I find annoying about people like Gokhale is that they can't ask even the basic level of tough questions: like why do we need the MRFA, in light of MK2 and Rafale? Where is the money going to come from? Why can't squadron strength depletions & pilot deaths be avoided by ordering more Mk1/Mk1a etc?

And no, I don't buy the argument that the questions are pre-vetted and the Chief won't answer them. Our journos are dumb-asses who can't do the basic homework. And too afraid of "access being cut-off" if they ask a barely provocative question. People like Nitin Gokhale are marginally better than the other bozos - that's all
Cutting off access is not something that folks like Nitin Gokhale would like to entertain. He prides on having special access, unlike most of the other journos. So he will play it safe.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by brar_w »

ldev wrote:according to Dassault's assessment HAL would require 2.7x the amount of manpower for the Rafale assembly process and thereby make the overall cost such that Dassault was unable to meet it's pricing targets.
A new production system, new labor making a new product, is going to come with associated learning curve and those ahead on their curve (like Dassault's original production line) will be more efficient based on years of performance and delivery and the effort put towards efficiency over this time. This is true for all new systems. See below for the F-35 production (first 300 or so a/c produced) and do note that this was essentially being produced at a location, with an established production system which is one of the oldest (the FW plant operations) anywhere in the world. If tomorrow LM was asked to bring in an additional production partner (pick any western OEM) and open up a new production line for sub 200 orders, they too would be projecting touch labor hours at multiples of what they themselves deliver at FW.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

X-Post from the Tejas Mk2 thread...
LakshmanPST wrote: Whatever it is, GOI should take a decision as early as possible regarding MRFA...
They should either
1) order 2 more Rafale squadrons in G2G deal (IAF may not be satisfied)
2) order 4 more Rafale squadrons + 26 for Navy in G2G deal (IAF will be satisfied)
3) move ahead with 6 squadrons of MRFA with Rafale winning it (IAF will be very happy)
-
Whatever may the decision, they need to put an end to this circus... Things shouldn't be left stuck for long...
I believe it will be option #2, provided the Rafale M wins the naval contest. And that is anything but guaranteed.

The F-18SH is arriving on May 21, 2022. On a number of measures (airframe life, payload capacity, AESA radar, wider array of weaponry, etc) the Rhino outranks the Rafale M. If the latter does win, it would be interesting to see on what technical measure. However, a stand alone fleet of F-18SH will be financially unviable, unless the navy drops some other wishes. It is for that reason, the navy has latched on to the idea of selecting whatever aircraft the IAF picks in the MRFA. That leaves only two contestants - the F-18SH and the Rafale M.

A win for Rafale M will give the GOI a huge political boost. Easier for the two services as well, budget wise. 114 MRFA is not happening and neither is the 57 carrier borne fighters. But 74+ MRFA and 26 MRCBF is financially doable, on a long term (8 - 9 years) assembly schedule. Therefore, a 100 aircraft order will result in an assembly line, which can also serve as a MROU hub for the Indian Rafale fleet.

My personal choice is 44 to 54 more Rafale F3Rs for the IAF + 26 Rafale Ms for the Navy. Out of this second batch of Rafales, send 18 each to Hasimara and Ambala. The last 8 to 18 airframes, station at Gwalior to serve as attrition reserves and to serve at TACDE. For the sake of the taxpayer, please make use of the investment made in the first 36 Rafales. Please don't do a repetition of the Mirage 2000 and MiG-29 acquisitions of the 1980s. That was an Idhar Bhi Nahi Hai, Aur Udhar Bhi Nahi Hai scenario.

The dark horse in this entire tamasha is the interconnected economy. It is cratering. We are already in a global recession. India's neighbours (Pakistan and Sri Lanka) are financial basket cases and China is not doing too good on the economic front either. India is right behind. There is a way out for the GOI and especially the services. It is called Atmanirbhar Bharat, which the services don't want to touch with a barge pole.

Go all in with the Tejas Mk2 and TEDBF. Order a minimum of 200 Mk2s now for the IAF and the Navy will get behind the TEDBF. NaMo has got to crack the whip on the services. The GOI can weather this recession and come out on top, provided it whole heartedly pushes Atmanirbhar Bharat. If India wants to avoid the fate of Sri Lanka and Pakistan, self reliance is the only way. Do this and the possibilities for India is only limited by our imagination. NaMo will win 2024 with a majority never before seen in India's political scene. I say that without jingoism.

NaMo needs to find an advisor that pushes Atmanirbhar Bharat and acts as the conduit / interlocutor between him and the services. The CDS is not going to cut it. India's military chiefs and senior leadership are too insulated within their own services. They cannot see beyond their own service. I am not against the concept of CDS, but there has to be someone who can crack the whip and put their foot down against this importing behaviour. The new CDS will only push his services' import wish list.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Pratyush »

Why is super hornet going to be a choice for the IAF when it was not even a part of the final 2 of the original drama.

At this juncture anything other than ordering Rafale will be the most stupid action India can undertake.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by ldev »

brar_w wrote:
A new production system, new labor making a new product, is going to come with associated learning curve and those ahead on their curve (like Dassault's original production line) will be more efficient based on years of performance and delivery and the effort put towards efficiency over this time. This is true for all new systems. See below for the F-35 production (first 300 or so a/c produced) and do note that this was essentially being produced at a location, with an established production system which is one of the oldest
What this underscores is that the benefits of lower production man hours per aircraft will not be realized unless there is sustained volume production. A production run of even 120 aircraft is not going to realize the full learning curve. France has higher production costs than the US for the same reason and for India the production costs for a French aircraft assembled in India will be higher than even France!! India will be literally paying through it's nose for the privilege of local assembly/license manufacture for dubious benefits. And what benefits are those? There is no "transfer of technology" which can be absorbed such that the local assembler can iteratively design a better aircraft in the future without somebody else hand holding it. Nor is there true independence in terms of future operations of the aircraft because critical components and spares will continue to come from the OEM for the life of the aircraft i.e. just look at the concerns on the SU-30 spare part situation because of Russia-Ukraine.

The only lesson is that foreign aircraft should be imported and HAL should concentrate on manufacturing purely domestic fighters i.e. Tejas, AMCA... This Buy Global and Make in India option will only result in higher costs and no true self sufficiency for spares/components. To the extent that the MRFA will go ahead, whatever fighter is chosen should be imported straight up.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by konaseema »

2 tranche's of 36 Rafale's, one in 2024 (after general election) and another in 2026. No local production and no offsets but enforce Dassault's offset obligation from the first 36 and be done with this drama.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

Pratyush wrote:Why is super hornet going to be a choice for the IAF when it was not even a part of the final 2 of the original drama.

At this juncture anything other than ordering Rafale will be the most stupid action India can undertake.
Even Boeing is aware that the F-18 - despite all the technical wizardry that the Block III has - will not make the cut. The IAF wants a hot rod and for the that reason, Boeing is bringing in the F-15EX. The Eagle-II has no rival in the 4th generation arena. Whether the IAF can afford the annual OPEX of the F-15EX - with a massive 265 Rambha fleet - remains to be seen. Both aircraft are OPEX guzzlers.
konaseema wrote:2 tranche's of 36 Rafale's, one in 2024 (after general election) and another in 2026. No local production and no offsets but enforce Dassault's offset obligation from the first 36 and be done with this drama.
Good point on local production.

Local production will only drive the cost up. Just buy the airframes directly from the manufacturer, but get offsets via components and MROU facilities. That is a far better strategy, than wasting money on setting up a local line. But prior to any future Rafale orders, the GOI has to place a massive order (minimum 200+) of the Tejas Mk2 with HAL. This is vital for any future Rafale tranches to be ordered, as it will give the GOI enough political capital to weather any opposition attack over future Rafale orders.

In addition, an order of this scale will also reduce the IAF's desire for 114 fourth generation airframes from abroad. This in turn will also reduce the annual OPEX of operating 36 Rafales + 114 more MRFAs and also reduce the upgrade cost of keeping these airframes relevant for four decades. Just leave the Rafale fleet for silver bullet missions (i.e. SEAD), till the AMCA comes on board. Make the Mk1A and Mk2 the future workhorses of the IAF. Nothing will drive the point home with the services on Atmanirbhar Bharat as effectively, like an order of this magnitude.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Cain Marko »

Xposting from CAATSA thread:
Rakesh wrote:So from possibly placing sanctions for acquiring S-400, the US is now moving to military aid...in the tune of US $500 million.

US Seeks to Wean India From Russia Weapons With Arms-Aid Package
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... id-package
17 May 2022
Very, very interesting development - and in the right direction imvho. Should have happened much earlier, and the package needs to be larger BUT - it is a start.

Don't think this will make much differnce to IAF MRCA - the IAF might be import friendly, but it won't approach a sanction-prone product for its spearhead with a 10 foot pole. Not happening. POssibly a few helos/Apaches and Guardians.

WRT IN: Now here is a very interesting possibility. The Navy is far more amenable to US maal as its main focus is China centric and it can handle TSP with ease and with a fraction of its current resources. But the PLAAF is another matter. If the US sweetens the pot, don't be surprised to see Shornets in force on IN CVs. May even pull out a total shocker with a massive US mothballed/refurbed CV transfer with a large fleet of Shornets as India's third CV. With strict clause - it will be used wonlee against China :wink:

My reading of tea leaves -
IN Vikrant airwing will be US (Shornets/JSF)
IAF will get 36 additional Rafale direct from France.
MRCA/MRFA/MRCBF/SEF will die a peaceful death (finally).

This will be the cheapest and fastest option for GOI and services. No screwdrivergiri and no ToT - domestic industry (HAL) will have to focus on Tejas. Pvt players may do some screwdriver stuff here and there.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by ldev »

Cain Marko wrote: Very, very interesting development - and in the right direction imvho. Should have happened much earlier, and the package needs to be larger BUT - it is a start.

Don't think this will make much differnce to IAF MRCA - the IAF might be import friendly, but it won't approach a sanction-prone product for its spearhead with a 10 foot pole. Not happening. POssibly a few helos/Apaches and Guardians.

WRT IN: Now here is a very interesting possibility. The Navy is far more amenable to US maal as its main focus is China centric and it can handle TSP with ease and with a fraction of its current resources. But the PLAAF is another matter. If the US sweetens the pot, don't be surprised to see Shornets in force on IN CVs. May even pull out a total shocker with a massive US mothballed/refurbed CV transfer with a large fleet of Shornets as India's third CV. With strict clause - it will be used wonlee against China :wink:

My reading of tea leaves -
IN Vikrant airwing will be US (Shornets/JSF)
IAF will get 36 additional Rafale direct from France.
MRCA/MRFA/MRCBF/SEF will die a peaceful death (finally).

This will be the cheapest and fastest option for GOI and services. No screwdrivergiri and no ToT - domestic industry (HAL) will have to focus on Tejas. Pvt players may do some screwdriver stuff here and there.
IMO the strong points for US offerings are the diverse range of PGMs and EW if it is available. Paradoxically right now the USAF does not have escort jammers but rely on USN Growlers for that role including currently in Eastern Europe. Before writing off the possibility of the US selling India the latest and greatest in its EW area, consider that the Growler is now being re-equipped with the Next Generation Jammer, mid band being deployed, low band and high band in development. That leaves the legacy ALQ-99 jammers available, a generation behind but IMO far superior to other similar products. A Superhornet purchase makes sense if a deal can also be worked out for Growlers albeit with the older ALQ-99 jamming pod. That will provide a huge leg up mainly to enable escort for legacy IAF aircraft which are currently vulnerable. It will multiply the potency of a large portion of the legacy IAF fleet. The benefit to the IN will be incidental. If the Growler cannot be part of the US offering then it becomes a more balanced competition between the Rafale and Super Hornet. But even there the Super Hornet has got PGMs such as the Long Range Air to Ship Missile which can make the difference i.e the ability for the LRASM to strike specific parts of a moving ship at far greater distances than the Brahmos-ER.

For the IAF ditto the F-15EX. It is the PGMs which are enticing. It is the PGMs IMO, not the basic aircraft which makes the F-15EX enticing e.g. the F-15 can carry upto 28 of the Small Diameter Bombs which are capable of all weather day and night interdiction of moving targets, very useful in taking out upto 28 pieces of PLA armor and artillery in one pass. Similarly the JASSM long range and extended range variants have ranges of 950 km and 1900 km respectively, will provide a boost to the IAF's long range attack posture. But like the Growler scenario, it only makes sense if the package includes such PGMs. Without these cutting edge PGMs the F-15EX will be no better than the Rafale's long range strike ability with the SCALP.

As far as sanctions are concerned, I think the US was shortsighted in 1998 during the nuke tests. As events in Ukraine have shown the US dollar for the first time has been used as an offensive weapon, in the past it was used defensively. Even a country without a single US weapons platform can be coerced via purely economic sanctions as the global financial architecture has been built by the US and now Europe. In 1998 the US would have achieved the same results of cutting off India's nuke testing program prematurely with just the threat of economic sanctions without cutting off cooperation on the LCA.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

Cain Marko wrote:WRT IN: Now here is a very interesting possibility. The Navy is far more amenable to US maal as its main focus is China centric and it can handle TSP with ease and with a fraction of its current resources. But the PLAAF is another matter. If the US sweetens the pot, don't be surprised to see Shornets in force on IN CVs. May even pull out a total shocker with a massive US mothballed/refurbed CV transfer with a large fleet of Shornets as India's third CV. With strict clause - it will be used wonlee against China :wink:
Nothing to be shocked. The Rhino is indeed more capable than the Rafale M in a number of areas. That is a fact :)

With regards to a mothballed/refurbed CV transfer, please go here ---> viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7308&start=2040#p2549962

Can they pull the 50 year old Kitty Hawk or the 40 year old John F Kennedy out of the scrap heap and refurbish her? Possible, but appears unlikely with the Indian Navy wanting a local shipyard to gain experience in building a super carrier. By the way, is that refurbished vessel going to come with EMALS or steam catapult? :mrgreen: With regards to the Navy being more amenable to US maal, the last US Navy vessel that was transferred to the Indian Navy was the USS Trenton (now INS Jalashwa). This is what the Indian Navy did to her;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Jalashwa_(L41)
INS Jalashwa has undergone two refits. A short one, limited by financial constraints, helped the ship attain higher speeds. The second refit in 2012 was longer, and her radars and sensors were replaced with indigenous equipment. This reduced the navy's dependence on US-origin components, as it was uncomfortable with the US inspection regime.
The IN is comfortable with inspections on P-8Is and the upcoming MH-60R, but not with US-origin radars and sensors on INS Jalashwa.

Okay :)
Cain Marko wrote:My reading of tea leaves -
IN Vikrant airwing will be US (Shornets/JSF)
IAF will get 36 additional Rafale direct from France.
MRCA/MRFA/MRCBF/SEF will die a peaceful death (finally).

This will be the cheapest and fastest option for GOI and services. No screwdrivergiri and no ToT - domestic industry (HAL) will have to focus on Tejas. Pvt players may do some screwdriver stuff here and there.
We are not getting any F-35s from the US. For as long as the S-400 exists in India, no F-35s are coming. Why would LM threaten/compromise the F-35 for their own Air Force, Marine Corps and Navy and all other international customers, just to sell a pithy 26 (+31) aircraft to India? While we are an important member of the Quad, that does not mean India can get away with this. Give up S-400 and then get F-35. The Rhino is a different story and answered in my post linked above in the Naval Aviation thread.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Cain Marko »

Rakesh wrote:....
As usual Admiralji, you have put some realism in my chai. Interesting taste. Don't know what to make of it. Maybe it's rum.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

Cain-ji, the naval contest is for Boeing to lose.

The Rhino is the premier naval fighter. A beautiful bomb truck with an excellent AESA radar.

The Amreekis make excellent kit. No denying that.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Cain Marko »

There is one more possiblity. The iaf gets 36 rafale + IN mig29k so as to arrest shortfall of numbers. The Navy gets 57 shornets. Although that would make both the CVs very prone to US CAATSA. My original reading is possibly the most likely.

If the shornet performs as per Navy needs and is easily operable on both Indian carriers, I expect the GOI will reciprocate to the US offer with a reasonable counter.

As for it's pedigree, there's little doubt. Interestingly, the rhino just might have the most excess thrust of all three birds for stobar ops, a rather important factor when it comes to the shorter runway on these ships
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by bala »

What is the point of having so many different Aircrafts on Carriers - Mig29, Shornets, Rafale. We are turning this into International Aircraft Kiosk stand, of course there will be wine&cheese trips to these nations. TEDBF all the way please and provide enough funds to make it happen soon.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

Wine & Cheese is important Sirjee, as is student visas for children to study at prestigious universities in the US and France :)

This contest is for the Vikrant airwing. There is nothing viable right now. The N-LCA is not going to cut it, the TEDBF has not even had her first flight and the MiG-29K/KUB is khayali pulao. So F-18 or Rafale M it is.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by ashishvikas »

India Cuts Back World’s Largest Fighter Jet Procurement Programme By Half
https://www.businessworld.in/article/In ... 22-430673/
IAF’s global Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft Programme shrinks from 114 fighters to 57 amidst focus on domestic industry

The Indian Air Force (IAF) is cutting down its largest fighter jet procurement programme by half and has indicated the likelihood of a change in the procurement model to one which is more acceptable to foreign suppliers for compliance to Make in India requirements in view of the reduced numbers.

BW Businessworld has learnt from highly placed sources that the estimated $20 Billion Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) procurement programme for 114 foreign jets is being shrunk to acquisition of 57 jets through a global competition.

The original proposal to make these jets in India under the ambitious Strategic Partnership (SP) Model is set to be dumped and the shrunken programme is likely to be rebooted under the Buy Global (Make in India) category of the Defence Acquisition Procedure 2020, sources elaborated. All the 57 fighters will be made in India with transfer of technology from the foreign OEM to an Indian company.

The cutback is mainly on account of the Government’s Aatmanirbhar Bharat (self-reliant India) policy directive to minimize Defence imports and build up a domestic Defence Industrial complex instead to meet military requirements. A renewed drive is afoot to commit most of the capital budget for Defence modernization to domestic sources. Even the Indian Navy requirement for imported deck-borne fighters was reduced from 57 to 26. The cutback on the MRFA and the Navy fighters is both an opportunity and challenge for domestic industry to make up the numbers.



The timeline for issuance of a global tender for acquisition of 57 jets is end-2022, it is learnt. The IAF had approached the global market with an RFI for 114 fighters in 2018. Responses were received by Air Headquarters on behalf of Lockheed Martin’s F-21, Boeing’s F-15EX and F/A-18 Super Hornet, Dassault’s Rafale, Saab’s Gripen, the European consortium’s Eurofighter, Sukhoi’s S-35 and MiG’s MiG-35.

India’s record at procurement of a foreign fighter through global competition is tortuous. The MRFA’s predecessor, the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) programme for 126 fighters, was aborted after a decade-long procurement process threw up Dassault’s Rafale as the winner but failed to secure a contractual agreement. In 2016, India went in for a direct purchase of 36 Rafale fighters as an emergency procurement in a Government-to-Government deal with France.

A foreign fighter is critical to the IAF’s plan to peg its numbers to about 35 squadrons over the next 15 years. A proven foreign combat jet is also meant to ensure interim reliability and assurance till the indigenous Light Combat Aircraft variants and the futuristic Fifth Generation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) mature and stabilize. The authorized fighter strength for the IAF is 42 squadrons, which IAF Chief Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhari acknowledged will not be realized in the foreseeable future.

The IAF’s anxiety to ensure minimum force levels is also on account of the impending retirement of its legacy jets comprising the Mirage-2000, MiG-29 and the Jaguars fleets over the next decade. The residual squadrons of the MiG-21 will also be out by 2024.

Two new Rafale squadrons are operational. Delivery of 83 LCA Mk 1A fighters will commence in 2024. The LCA Mk-2 and AMCA are expected in a decade in a best-case scenario. The MRFA was envisaged to mitigate the gap of fighter squadrons and combat capability. But the IAF, which was hoping for six fallback MRFA squadrons, will now have to work around three.

Industry sources expressed the view that reduced numbers in a global tender make it more difficult to meet stringent Make in India and transfer of technology requirements profitably. “A cutback in numbers by half makes it more challenging to execute a complex tender like this one. Numbers provide viability, cost-effectiveness and affordability,” an observer reasoned.

The other big concern is that the SP model - a key reform to kickstart the emergence of a private sector Defence Industrial complex by reserving one big procurement per category as a one-time measure - has failed to take off. The Naval Utility Helicopter (NUH) programme – the first under the SP Model - has been dumped. There’s little progress in the Project 75 (I) submarine programme, and now the re-categorisation of the MRFA is a body blow. This initiative is likely to head back to the drawing board, insiders reckon.

The recategorization of the MRFA means that the tender would be awarded to a foreign OEM, which would deliver the Make in India element through an Indian partner of its choice. Under the SP Model, an Indian company would have been the prime, with the option to choose a technical collaborator from among a pool of foreign OEMs shortlisted by the Ministry of Defence.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

Finally! About time.

Ashish Saar, you always post the best news. Kudos to you.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

If the above is true, it looks three more Rafale squadrons (54 + 3 reserves or for TACDE). No point in inducting any other plane, after the investment made in the first batch of 36 aircraft. But I don't see how any OEM - including Dassault - will transfer a screwdrivergiri line for just 57 aircraft. Yet another delay. Just buy the aircraft directly from the OEM and focus on components and integration of Indian kit as much as possible.

I really hope Air HQ does not repeat the Mirage 2000 and MiG-29 acquisitions of the 1980s. What a disappointment that was. Stop with the zoo!

Best News - This reduction will pave the way for the Tejas Mk2 to come into reality. Atmanirbhar Bharat! 200 Tejas Mk2s is now no longer a pipe dream, but a reality and a necessity.

If the above goes through, the Navy will likely go in for the F-18SH as a stand alone fleet. 26 aircraft which will serve as the Vikrant's air wing. I would be surprised if the Rafale M actually won that contest.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

This youtube video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kg1kFLIeFZI) was the last interview that the Air Chief gave about the 114 MRFA program. The youtube video was uploaded two weeks ago, but probably recorded in early May. So from early May till today (May 30), the numbers were pared down from 114 to 57. The war in Ukraine has finally hit home to the MoD and even the services - Self Reliance is the only way to Victory.

Another takeaway from this news is that three services are running contests of foreign platforms (in numbers and in requirements) that the Govt just cannot afford. The 111 Naval Utility Helicopter (NUH) deal, the cancellation of the 30 Predator armed drones from the US, the P-75I contest for six SSKs, the on-hold for six additional P-8Is from the US and now the 114 MRFA contest all bear testament to this.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by rajsunder »

Rakesh wrote:....
If the number is down by 50%, would that not increase the TOT transfer price for each of these planes by say about 10-20%?

Its time we put more effort in to MK2 and try to bring a FOC MK2 by 2026.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

There is not going to be any TOT with this new contest or with the previous contest.

A brand new platform (non-Rafale) will be more expensive, because of the infrastructure that has to be set up + the tools and spares and the weapons. A follow-on G2G Rafale deal will be cheaper because everything was already paid for in the first 36 Rafales.

Remember, Hasimara and Ambala can house two squadrons each of the Rafale. A third base will likely be at Gwalior, which is the home of the IAF's three Mirage 2000 squadrons. Another French-origin aircraft. Transition to Rafale at Gwalior will be that much easier.

10 Reasons why the Indian Rafale is Evolution itself
https://www.livefistdefence.com/14696/
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Nihat »

Yup, this seems like common sense now. 5 squadrons of rafale and that's a solid enough force. Onwards and upwards towards atmanirbharta because that is simply the only way ahead.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

Nihat wrote:Yup, this seems like common sense now. 5 squadrons of rafale and that's a solid enough force. Onwards and upwards towards atmanirbharta because that is simply the only way ahead.
We don't do common sense (G2G deal for additional Rafales), because that would be illogical.

We will do foolishness (buy another type or ignore Su-30MKI upgrade), because that would be logical.

Chase the next best thing.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

Folks on twitter are already making predictions based on the news piece above. Neither tweet is true, but looks that way...

https://twitter.com/Sandeep_Mave/status ... AzyJhX3QJw ---> Indian Air Force is considering 54 Rafale in a G2G deal from Dassault Aviation.

https://twitter.com/Sandeep_Mave/status ... AzyJhX3QJw ---> Indian Navy to procure 26 F-18 in a G2G deal.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by rajsunder »

Rakesh wrote:A follow-on G2G Rafale deal will be cheaper because everything was already paid for in the first 36 Rafales.
Would it really be cheap if we go for Block F4? Would that not mean that the additions that we did to the F3R version have to be retested for F4 version?
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

rajsunder wrote:Would it really be cheap if we go for Block F4? Would that not mean that the additions that we did to the F3 version have to be retested for F4 version?
For the quickest induction, the variant presently in service - F3R(I) - would be adopted. F4 will take time.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

That third tweet is worth its weight in gold. Our senior military leadership is infected with severe brochuritis. The sad reality is that it took a war in a foreign country (Ukraine) for our Air Marshals/Admirals/Generals to realize that self reliance is the only way. I really worry for our country.

https://twitter.com/vigneshaero02/statu ... FojeVmjfuw ---> Lets just buy two Rafale squadrons, G2G, no ToT/offsets drama and put an end to this shitshow. We already have paid for the base infra and ISE for 2 extra squadrons. 114 to 57 is a sign that the LCA MK2 is coming along as planned.

https://twitter.com/vigneshaero02/statu ... FojeVmjfuw ---> The fact is if the MWF goes accordingly to plan , the first airframe could enter service by 2027-28. I don't see any scenario where a a licensed produced foreign jet can enter service before that.

https://twitter.com/vigneshaero02/statu ... FojeVmjfuw ---> But seriously, from our Mirage license production plan to this, it's almost like the IAF has forgotten how to actually execute a deal like this starting from the QRs (Qualitative Requirements) and clauses. The navy is going down the same route with submarine procurement.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Nihat »

It will probably take the prime minister to stake all his goodwill into another G2G deal to get this over the line. Only worry is that they may choose to wait till after May 2024 to sign any deals in order to avoid controversy
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

Nihat Saar, remember this line?

"We must have 114 MRFA. There is no Plan B."

Same thing was said during the 126 MMRCA contest as well.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

Tweet below (30 May 2022) is in response to tweet in quote (31 Jan 2021)...

https://twitter.com/Firezstarter1/statu ... FojeVmjfuw ---> Glad to see a report stating that the below prediction is coming true. Govt *is* planning to acquire three squadrons MRFA, and save critical funds for multiple other IAF programs. Prudent use of existing fiscal resources while balancing strategic needs (Tejas), upgrades.
https://twitter.com/Firezstarter1/statu ... FojeVmjfuw ---> I understand why IAF wants this, it's a risk hedge against delays with MWF, Su-30 upg, plus low squadron numbers are a real issue. But, doubt GOI has budget for a 114 a/c MRFA with TOT (60%). So would push for direct buy 3 more sq Rafales, more Flankers, Tejas Mk1A.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Cybaru »

That seems like wonderful news! very pragmatic approach to the saga. If all orders go to Dassault, then we are looking at close to 120 rafales in India.

It is also possible that the 4-6 more P8I show up, but given c295s and we wanting to make our own platform, we could just reasonably acquire 12-16 of these vs P8I for the same price. Plus they will be our kit. I presume Def minister making rounds in Indian navy platforms is a sales pitch to push for more?
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by kit »

Rakesh wrote:If the above is true, it looks three more Rafale squadrons (54 + 3 reserves or for TACDE). No point in inducting any other plane, after the investment made in the first batch of 36 aircraft. But I don't see how any OEM - including Dassault - will transfer a screwdrivergiri line for just 57 aircraft. Yet another delay. Just buy the aircraft directly from the OEM and focus on components and integration of Indian kit as much as possible.
i think some ppl are saying dont make mistakes with Katerina like that of Mirage 2000 ., but then we have moved on
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by kit »

Rakesh wrote:Folks on twitter are already making predictions based on the news piece above. Neither tweet is true, but looks that way...

https://twitter.com/Sandeep_Mave/status ... AzyJhX3QJw ---> Indian Air Force is considering 54 Rafale in a G2G deal from Dassault Aviation.

https://twitter.com/Sandeep_Mave/status ... AzyJhX3QJw ---> Indian Navy to procure 26 F-18 in a G2G deal.
F18 might have happened ., i was predicting that for the IN ..but things have changed

a combined 54 for BOTH IAF and IN is more likely
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by NRao »

< Already Posted Above >
Last edited by Rakesh on 31 May 2022 05:08, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Post Edited
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

This tweet takes the cake! :lol:

126....114....57...then (& hopefully)...poof!

https://twitter.com/cvkrishnan/status/1 ... FojeVmjfuw ---> There is a random number generator and a random date generator somewhere within South Block.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Ankit Desai »

France already said, can't have assembly line in India for less than 100 number.

I think it will be buy off the shelf deal, same as previous one. With no more training, infrastructure, & simulator etc expenses, those fund will help to reach 57 number.(I am not comparing with other expenses one on one).

Personally, I would like to have new, to be inducted squadrons at Sarsawa, Gwalior (strategic weapon carrier, eventual replacement of Mirage), Jorhat.

-Ankit
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