MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

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Rakesh
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

@Philip: The F-15EX is the most advanced aircraft among all the contestants in MMRCA 2.0

The AN/APG-82 AESA aboard the F-15EX is by far the best that is out there. The radar on the Su-35 comes no where close. And while the Su-35 will be cheaper unit wise, the total life cycle cost on the F-15EX vis-à-vis the Su-35 will be cheaper. The Su-35 will be anything but cheaper to operate. Pitting the Su-35 against the F-15EX is not even a fair comparison. The F-15EX will prevail.

This is a great upgrade for nations that operate the F-15 already i.e. Japan, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the USAF. To set up an ecosystem (base infrastructure, tools, spares, etc) for India will be a much harder proposition, cost wise. Right now, the IAF wants nothing else other than the Rafale.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by brar_w »

It's a tough and competitive landscape once you roll up all potential global medium and heavy fighters and the F-15EX brings some nice things to the table. New cockpit and HMD tech, fastest mission computer currently flying (even surpassing current 5GFA performance), full fiber-optic backbone, large AESA radar that is going to be upgraded with new tech in the short-medium term (pre-program activity on this started last year), loads of qualified US/EU and Israeli weapons (it may just have the largest/most-diverse selection of PGM's, Missiles, and weapons of any current internationally marketed fighter) and a GaN AESA based integrated self-protection EW suite that is going to have a large installed base (350-400 aircraft sharing the common radar and EW gear though with export it could well exceed 500 given the current F-15E installed base). Drawbacks are obviously its size, weight, cost, large twin engines (cost), RCS/Signature (biggest disadvantage) and next to nothing in terms of IAF weapon compatibility etc. However, the chance that the IAF will pick a heavy fighter are practically zero. It just doesn't make sense from a fleet mix standpoint (given the large MKI fleet already). When you get into the medium class then the Rafale stands out due to Indian enhancements and infrastructure already available. Everything else is going to be suboptimal but even the Rafale is unlikely to be affordable as a domestic production of a decade or so production run. It's expensive as it is..throw in licensing fees, domestic production, duplication costs and you are looking at at least a 2X increase in unit cost once you factor all the fixed costs. I don't see the plan of fielding a domestically built foreign MRCA in the triple digits going anywhere. As for some of the other options, the last thing the IAF would want to do IMHO is back a horse that has little to no domestic support and has gone virtually nowhere internationally since it was originally offered to it a long time back.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Cain Marko »

Philip wrote:The intro of the SU-35 and F-15 EX whatever are the two jokers in the pack.I think both are really " dummy" candidates as in our elections.Both truly questionable when we have 270+ SU-30MKIs in service,with over 200 to be upgraded to SS stds. The only thought I can bring to bear is that the SU-35 ,has a single pilot,cheaper to operate overall, and may in performance equal or surpass the Rafale/ Typhoon at much lower cost. As the quote about buying " within budget" shows,cost-effectiveness will hereafter prevail. This will benefit Ru aircraft like the MIG-35 and our desi LCAs which will be much cheaper than other European and American fighters.

As for the F-15 in its latest avatar now,it was some years ago found wanting against IAF SU-30s and Bisons.
Rakesh wrote:@Philip: The F-15EX is the most advanced aircraft among all the contestants in MMRCA 2.0

The AN/APG-82 AESA aboard the F-15EX is by far the best that is out there. The radar on the Su-35 comes no where close. And while the Su-35 will be cheaper unit wise, the total life cycle cost on the F-15EX vis-à-vis the Su-35 will be cheaper. The Su-35 will be anything but cheaper to operate. Pitting the Su-35 against the F-15EX is not even a fair comparison. The F-15EX will prevail.

This is a great upgrade for nations that operate the F-15 already i.e. Japan, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the USAF. To set up an ecosystem (base infrastructure, tools, spares, etc) for India will be a much harder proposition, cost wise. Right now, the IAF wants nothing else other than the Rafale.
At this point in time the Russkis might as well throw in the Su-57 into the mix. Will bring in a much needed capability jump to the mix. Make noises wrt common radar, sensors and engines with a Super Sukhoi - MKI upgrade. I can see that being more tempting than the MiG-35 (not enough capability) or the Su-35 (redundancy wrt MKI).
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by brar_w »

They should offer it. At least then the IAF pilots may be able to fly the aircraft which IIRC wasn't the case when they were actually partnered on the program. But in reality it would be unlikely given that the domestic production of the SU-57 has barely started, and trying to compete with an export/license production of over 100 aircraft (when you are domestically producing no more than 76 in the next 7 years) looks like a pretty daunting task whereas having the same on the Su-35 or even the MiG-29/35 is a lot easier to do within a reasonable timeframe. It is probably too early to offer (in a competition) the SU-57 with those terms (though that would be different if it wasn't a competition and a simple G2G deal) given that the parent design has had just two production examples produced and delivered till date.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by VinodTK »

Rakesh wrote:@Philip: The F-15EX is the most advanced aircraft among all the contestants in MMRCA 2.0

The AN/APG-82 AESA aboard the F-15EX is by far the best that is out there. The radar on the Su-35 comes no where close. And while the Su-35 will be cheaper unit wise, the total life cycle cost on the F-15EX vis-à-vis the Su-35 will be cheaper. The Su-35 will be anything but cheaper to operate. Pitting the Su-35 against the F-15EX is not even a fair comparison. The F-15EX will prevail.

This is a great upgrade for nations that operate the F-15 already i.e. Japan, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the USAF. To set up an ecosystem (base infrastructure, tools, spares, etc) for India will be a much harder proposition, cost wise. Right now, the IAF wants nothing else other than the Rafale.
+++Well stated+++
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

As of 2021, one Gripen E is in Brazil undergoing testing and evaluation by the Brazilian Air Force. The IAF signed for 36 Rafales in Sept 2016. Around 20+ will be in service by the end of next month. All 36 will be delivered to the IAF by April 2022.

https://twitter.com/alpha_defense/statu ... 74690?s=20 ---> You know Gripen E (NG) was one of the contender for MMRCA. Brazil signed a deal with SAAB in 2014. Today Brazil operates 0 of these (testing 1 fighter jet). What's your total number of Rafale? (Deal signed in 2016). Off the shelf vs making.

https://twitter.com/alpha_defense/statu ... 34594?s=20 ---> Their marketing technology is the most important technology. :lol:
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by brar_w »

SAAB is pure marketing . Apparently their Gripen E/NG is not only the equivalent of the F-35 at the cost of an F-5, but also, by strapping a few pods, becomes analogous to the Growler. All fun and games when the project is in the PPT stage but as far back as 2018 they still couldn't give (I asked one of their BD reps at a US event) a definitive answer as to when the first squadron (Brazil or Sweden) of any service will become operational with the mythical Gripen E/F. Brazil itself selected them in 2013 or so and Sweden/SAAB have been working on the Gripen NG and E/F program for quite a long time.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by nachiket »

Rakesh wrote: https://twitter.com/alpha_defense/statu ... 74690?s=20 ---> You know Gripen E (NG) was one of the contender for MMRCA. Brazil signed a deal with SAAB in 2014. Today Brazil operates 0 of these (testing 1 fighter jet). What's your total number of Rafale? (Deal signed in 2016). Off the shelf vs making.
This is exactly why I had heavily criticized SAAB earlier. They were essentially peddling vaporware during the original MMRCA competition. The Gripen E/NG was nowhere close to being a reality when they were trying to sell it to us. All companies pad their marketing brochures to make their products look better but SAAB takes it to a whole different level. They straight up lied that they even had a product which could compete in the MMRCA tender. No wonder it took until 2017 for the Gripen E to even fly for the first time.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

Oh my! This one is too good :lol: Let's see who all gets this!

https://twitter.com/Mave_Intel/status/1 ... 68965?s=20 ---> India to procure one squadron of Su-57 from Russia. Weird choice to be honest. Su-35 would be better.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by kit »

Rakesh wrote:Oh my! This one is too good :lol: Let's see who all gets this!

https://twitter.com/Mave_Intel/status/1 ... 68965?s=20 ---> India to procure one squadron of Su-57 from Russia. Weird choice to be honest. Su-35 would be better.
Someone had an April one idea :mrgreen:
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Philip »

Can the F-15EX whatever carry BMos., both ASM and AAMs. Nein my fuhrer! So big deal about its superior radar .It just makes the A/C for for the AEW job! Jokes aside,an upgraded SS would be a much better bet in every sense.Could be capable of carrying the Kinzhal LR AAM too if reqd.And certainly cheaper.

As Brar said,the SU-57 is for future consideration ,yet to be fleshed out in Ru stars as yet. If around 200 to 250 MKIs are to be upgraded to SS std., there is really no point in touting these twin-engined heavies when the task is to acquire around 120 light/ med. fighters to replace the MIG-21s.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Manish_P »

Philip wrote:Could be capable of carrying the Kinzhal LR AAM too if reqd.And certainly cheaper.
Kinzhal 'AAM' :shock:

And no it won't be 'certainly' cheaper.. not if one factors in things like life cycle costs.

It might be cheaper since the infrastructure for the Sukhoi manufacturing/ maintenance is in place.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by darshhan »

Philip wrote:Can the F-15EX whatever carry BMos., both ASM and AAMs. Nein my fuhrer! So big deal about its superior radar .It just makes the A/C for for the AEW job! Jokes aside,an upgraded SS would be a much better bet in every sense.Could be capable of carrying the Kinzhal LR AAM too if reqd.And certainly cheaper.

As Brar said,the SU-57 is for future consideration ,yet to be fleshed out in Ru stars as yet. If around 200 to 250 MKIs are to be upgraded to SS std., there is really no point in touting these twin-engined heavies when the task is to acquire around 120 light/ med. fighters to replace the MIG-21s.
While I agree that IAF should not order F-15s, I do not understand what was the need to bring Brahmos in the discussion.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

darshhan wrote:While I agree that IAF should not order F-15s, I do not understand what was the need to bring Brahmos in the discussion.
I believe the point that Philip is making, is that the IAF has installed Russian kit on western platforms and Western kit on Russian platforms. R-73 CCM on Mirage 2000 and Sea Eagle AShM on Tu-142 are good examples. It is my understanding that the Amreekis will not permit such a marriage of Russian and American hardware. But I could be wrong. It is not technically challenging at all for the Amreekis to do, but it will be a diplomatic issue.

But on the BrahMos, a couple of points to note;

1) BrahMos-A is still in development. It will likely only feature on the Su-30MKI, due to its size.

2) BrahMos-NG is still much further away, but reportedly is being designed to be carried by other combat aircraft. Now apart from fanboy art, there is no official confirmation that the Rafale will carry BrahMos-NG.

See this art at this link ---> http://rafalenews.blogspot.com/p/blog-page.html

Click on the link above and look for BrahMos-NG in the list. The NG is also planned for the MiG-29 and will most certainly be fitted on to TEDBF and other future Tejas variants. The larger point that Philip (I believe) is making is that an American bird will be limited to American weaponry onlee. So not only Russian hardware, even Indian hardware may not be permitted. So perhaps no Astra either.

That remains to be seen if that is going to be a deal killer for the IAF. The IN operates the P-8I quite well with the Harpoon AShM and other weaponry. I do not believe that the P-8I will ever carry the BrahMos-NG. That however in no way limits the effectiveness or takes away the capability of the P-8I. The Navy is very happy with the platform and is acquiring even more of them. So the proof lies in the pudding. The P-8I is a fantastic bird. And there is no stopping the P-8I from communicating with a MiG-29K or a TEDBF armed with BrahMos-NG either. So there are work arounds to the issue.

Now the IAF can adopt the same strategy if they choose, but it remains to be seen how it will work out. Could Rafale F3R carry Astra Mk2 or SFDR in the future? It was MBDA (or was it Thales?) that did not want to integrate Meteor with the Israeli Elta AESA radar on the Tejas. But perhaps they may be open to an Indian missile. At this stage, it is speculation. Will Raytheon allow to integrate Astra Mk2 or SFDR on F-15EX, F-18SH Block III or F-21? Again, at this stage it is speculation. The Israelis operate multiple Python variants on their F-15s and F-16s, so the possibility exists. But I believe those aircraft have been refitted with Elta radars, but I could be wrong.

From the IAF's standpoint, if Astra Mk2 or SFDR costs half the price of a Meteor or AIM-120...is it wise to invest scarce CAPEX on them, when Astra Mk2 or SFDR can do the same thing? If Dassault or Boeing or LM puts their foot down and says no to Astra Mk2 or SFDR on their planes, then the IAF is left with continuing to purchase Meteor or AIM-120. But if the OEM looks the other way, then the aircraft becomes all the more attractive to the IAF. The French have looked the other way with desi jugaad on their platforms in India. They could do the same with Rafale. It all depends on how much the OEM is willing to be open to Indian integration.

So BrahMos-NG on F-15EX, F-18SH Block III or F-21 is certainly technically possible...but whether they want to do it, is another issue.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by brar_w »

Israel operates F-16's with Israeli mission computers, Israeli weapons (A2A and A2S), EW gear, Communication suite, and US made radars. Singapore has likewise mixed and matched elements of US and Israel including interfaces, computers, EW gear and weapons. South Korea has integrated Israeli munitions (Spice) on its F-16's as well. The UAE operates custom equipment that is different from everyone else.

In the end it is possible to create a new baseline on any of these platforms but the question is going to come down to cost and who else is going to fund it as there appears to be no real demand for this thus leaving one or two customers to carry the entire cost associated with doing so (and then sustaining that through modernization). As the UAE Block 60 program showed back in the late 90's/early 2000's, there is really no limit to customization (these guys got a user specific AESA and AESA based SPJ suite in the early-mid 2000s - years and in some cases decades before the Eurocanards got some of these things) but then the costs rise to a point where you are paying 5th gen. or beyond 5th gen level of cost to acquire much less capable systems. Their value is in buying them as is with a limited level of customization. If that doesn't work, then better to move on to something else.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

:lol:

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 12898?s=20 ---> US has not yet offered F-35 steath fighters to India. They have offered lower versions of F-series. F-35 is a very capable aircraft: CDS
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

A bit of background to the tweet above....

https://twitter.com/manupubby/status/13 ... 71712?s=20 ---> Interesting. On a question about F-35s for India, CDS Gen Rawat says the US has offered only a lower variant of the F series yet. Says the F-35 is a very capable aircraft.

https://twitter.com/manupubby/status/13 ... 27616?s=20 ---> CDS added that the US may not like to share very advanced technology with other nations.

https://twitter.com/manupubby/status/13 ... 53384?s=20 ---> He was speaking at the #RaisinaDialogue2021.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Philip »

Reg. the F-35, Bloomberg reports that a key test which will give the bird full combat capability has been postponed to " end 2022" by the US.There are still several issues with the F-35 to be resolved, which is also a v.expensive proposition to acquire as well as operating costs. It's why the search is on for a new 4++ or 5- fighter for the USAF and USN.
I seriously doubt whether the F-35 will see service with our armed forces as even if the TEDBF arrives by the decade end, it will still be much cheaper than an F-35.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by brar_w »

All three F-35 variants have completed their physical operational testing to the full combat capability specification (Block-3F) as noted in the original development baseline. Prior to this, operator/service led operational assessments for each were conducted in 2015, 2016 and 2019, prior to each US service's operational leaders signing off on IOC. At the time, the USAF used its most cutting edge 4+ generation fighter as a comparison (that time was the AESA equipped F-15E's that were rolling out of the depot after getting upgraded). Subsequently, the physical hardware evaluation portion of the official OT&E was concluded as well. What remains is a joint simulation environment integration which was neither part of the original test master plan (JSE as it exists now was not even a thing back when the F-35 program was stood up), nor relevant to any foreign user of the aircraft (JSE integrates the F-35 into a virtual environment that includes other classified and unclassified US and threat system capabilities so that the combined effects/impacts can be measured. JSE structure and results are US specific and not shared with anyone else. JSE helps guide force structure and joint planning decisions for the US/Pentagon).

Foreign customers have done their own operational assessments and declared their own milestones for IOC etc. Integrating with the JSE and completing that simulation is a pre-requisite, not to full capability, but to full-rate production (it is a Milestone decision and not an operational capability decision) and block-buy decision for the US ONLY and not anyone else. European partners of the F-35 are already buying the aircraft as part of multi-year block buys having satisfied the development and operational test requirements to be able to do so as per their laws and regulations. Fascinating that the same folks advocating buying more MiG-29K's, Su-57 and the mythical MiG-35's are claiming that the F-35, that has completed a 11-year, 9,000+ test sortie and nearly 18,000 hour (not included the full year long OT&E involving between half a dozen to a dozen aircraft) test program is somehow undertested? :eek:

That said, the baseline version of the F-35 (block 3F, the one that is currently operational with US and other users) is no longer on offer as it is being phased out of production. Starting 2021, all new orders have been and will be for the Block 4 (Tech refresh 3) hardware/software configuration, some hardware elements of which (though some will come two years following that) will enter final production and assembly line in 2023 (hence 2021 orders for them - 2 yr. lead time). Starting with the 90+ aircraft the USAF had included in its current year's budget (which was signed into law a few months ago) all subsequent F-35's ordered will be block-4. Block 4 will undergo its own series of development, and operational testing. Though they may combine DT/OT for it, it could also be that block-4 has a dedicated Operational test and evaluation phase given the large scope of the upgrades. More than a dozen aircraft of the ITF are currently in the process of being upgraded with the new hardware to support Block 4 DT.

The first large Block -4 F-35 deal is likely going to happen later this year (see story linked below) and would involve 3 production lots, much like the last contract that was awarded a couple of years ago. This would be for between 400-500 aircraft (most likely) over 3 years which includes a 3-year buy for non US customers, and a year-by-year buy for US customers (of which 90+ have already been approved in the FY-21 budget). There is a production dip planned in 2023 (deliveries will fall to b/w 130-135 aircraft for LOT 15) because of the extensive hardware changes so future customers will probably not have access to the production line (at least in a substantive way) till production LOT 18 which comes in late 2026 and into 2027 with of course some wiggle room kept for ongoing campaigns (like Finland, Canada etc).

If you look at the UAE FMS case, they too plan supplying aircraft in 2027 and beyond time-frame which is exactly outside the period of the currently being negotiated 3 year deal. Despite very high production rates, they have very little room to offer expedited deliveries and most of the reductions in orders (like Turkey) have been offset by increases elsewhere (Japan, SoKo and Israel). So it's just not the S-400 problem that Lockheed has to deal with when/if it begins to talk to GOTUS about offering the F-35 for MMRCA (Lockheed has so far avoided going the DCS route on any F-35 sales campaign, leaving the negotiation to be between G2G as an FMS case), but also a supply problem. Despite producing at a very high production rate, they have very limited room in their production plan to offer any substantial inventory prior to 2027/2028. The block-4 transition also limits Lockheed's near term (2023-2025) ability to adjust production rates to meet additional demand. New vendors are being brought in, and existing vendors are transitioning to newer, more capable hardware that will have its own production ramp and learning curve associated with it. All this is why the F-35 has never been offered by GOTUS. The timelines do not align. They didn't for the original deal, and they don't for the current follow on purchase with domestic production.

Next F-35 Contracts Under Negotiation, Deal Expected by Late September
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

brar, why do you entertain? Just ignore.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/ReviewVayu/status/1 ... 12098?s=20 ---> US State Department clears F-16 sale to Philippines. The Government of Philippines has requested to buy 10 Lockheed Martin F-16C & 2 F-16D aircraft in Block 70/72 (“Viper”) configuration, along with engines, radars, AMRAAMs, avionics and other equipment for them.

https://twitter.com/MI6GB/status/140908 ... 83460?s=20 ---> The package worth $2.43 billion consists of:

* 10 F-16C Blk 70/72
* 2 F-16D Blk 70/72
* 15 AN/APG-83 radars
* 24 AIM-120 AMRAAMs (C7 or C8 variant)
* Bombs
* GPS/laser guidance kits
* Associated support equipment

https://twitter.com/vaimaniki/status/14 ... 3057?s=200 ---> Now simple linear scaling it to MRFA deal would give us about $24 billion. Add India specific mods, multi-base infra, training infra, and cost of screwdrivergiri in India and we are looking upwards of $30 billion easily. Imagine what we could get in $30 billion if we invest them in next 10 years in LCA and AMCA programs.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

^^^ All the other OEMs - in the contest - will more or less cost the same as JayS has indicated above in his tweet.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by srai »

$5 billion -> 83 Tejas Mk1A

$30 billion -> ~500 Tejas Mk1A
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Pratyush »

^^^ that alone should kill their drama. Even if the mk2 takes time to materialize. Continue on with mk1 and we get enough to deal with the PRC and TSP combo till 2030.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Aditya_V »

Even at that price the Philippines Airforce does not get Amraam D or AIm 260. and 24 Amraam- 2 per aircraft. The weapons package is clearly incomplete and will need to be ordered above this price.

So it is clear going forward apart from some Rafales and some specialised aircraft, the bulk of our fleet will have to be domestic.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by brar_w »

The Philippines AF data is from a DSCA notification not a bid or a contract. DOS notifications include what the export customer asked for + what the contractors want approved to that it can be offered. It is not an estimate on the cost of the contract because no one, at this stage, knows exactly which of the approved features the end user wants. DSCA notifications have been shown to be as much as 50% inflated over the actual contracted price.

Better to look at package or contracts and bids since those are firm commitments with agreements in place on cost, capability and schedule. The Finland HX competition and the Swiss competitions are good examples. We will be learning about their details in the coming weeks/months. In HX, the ceiling is $11 Billion ( €9 billion). Lockheed is offering 64 F-35A*'s in the Block 4 Configuration (with Tech refresh 3) along with a fairly comprehensive weapons package that includes weapons like the Joint Strike Missile and even the JASSM-ER which is not yet integrated on the F-35A (so will have integration costs factored in as well).

Boeing (50 F/A-18E and 14 EA-18G) and Dassault have likewise optioned out roughly an equivalent number of aircraft to stay inside the $11 billion ceiling. Their weapons package involves air to air, air-ground and stand off cruise missiles and in the case of Boeing, Raytheon's Next Generation Jammer pods. The exact combination is not known but safe to assume that the US bids (Lockheed and Boeing) would have had a smaller weapons package compared to Dassault because much of the existing Finnish AF weapons can be used on the F-35 or F-18. But regardless, these were actual bids so goes to show that $11 Billion can get you about 64 advanced 4.5 generation or 5th generation aircraft, along with weapons, support and one some infra. That should be the best current ballpark for this sort of capability at this scale for deliveries beginning in the 2025 timeframe IIRC.

*Here's the original Finland DSCA notification for the F-35A. This is what Lockheed had requested for approval. What Lockheed and the JPO bid with depends on the final request they received and where they thought they needed to be to stay inside the $11 Billion ceiling (which this DSCA notification exceeded).
The State Department has made a determination approving a possible Foreign Military Sale to the Government of Finland of F-35 Joint Strike Fighter aircraft with air-to-air missiles and air-to-ground precision guided munitions and related equipment for an estimated cost of $12.5 billion. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency delivered the required certification notifying Congress of this possible sale today.

The Government of Finland has requested to buy sixty-four (64) F-35 Joint Strike Fighter CTOL aircraft; sixty-six (66) Pratt & Whitney F-135 engines (64 installed and 2 spares); five hundred (500) GBU-53/B Small Diameter Bomb II (SDB II) All-Up Round (AUR); twelve (12) GBU-53/B SDB II Guided Test Vehicles (GTV); twelve (12) GBU-53/B SDB II Captive Carry Vehicles (CCV); one hundred fifty (150) Sidewinder AIM-9X Block II+ (Plus) Tactical Missiles; thirty-two (32) Sidewinder AIM-9X Block II+ (Plus) Captive Air Training Missiles (CATMs); thirty (30) AIM-9X Block II+ (Plus) Sidewinder Tactical Guidance Units; eight (8) AIM-9X Block II Sidewinder CATM Guidance Units; one hundred (100) AGM-154C-1 Joint Stand Off Weapon (JSOW-C1) Tactical Missiles; two hundred (200) Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile-Extended Range (JASSM-ER) AGM-158B-2 Missiles; two (2) AGM-158B-2 JASSM-ER Separation Test Vehicles; two (2) AGM-158B-2 JASSM-ER Instrumented Test Vehicles; two (2) AGM-158B-2 JASSM-ER Jettison Test Vehicles; two (2) AGM-158B-2 Inert JASSM w/Intelligent Telemetry Instrumentation Kits; two (2) AGM-158 Dummy Air Training Missiles; one hundred twenty (120) KMU-556 JDAM Guidance Kits for GBU-31; three hundred (300) FMU-139D/B Fuzes; two (2) KMU-556(D-2)/B Trainer JDAM Guidance Kits for GBU-31; thirty (30) KMU-557 JDAM Guidance Kits for GBU-31; one hundred fifty (150) KMU-572 JDAM Guidance Kits for GBU-38/54; one hundred twenty (120) BLU-117, General Purpose Bombs; thirty-two (32) BLU-109, General Purpose Bomb; one hundred fifty (150) BLU-111, General Purpose Bomb; six (6) MK-82, Inert Bomb; one (1) FMU-139D/B (D-1) Inert Fuze. Also included are Electronic Warfare Systems; Command, Control, Communications, Computer and Intelligence/Communications, Navigational, and Identification (C4I/CNI); Autonomic Logistics Global Support System (ALGS); Operational Data Integrated Network (ODIN); Air System Training Devices; Weapons Employment Capability and other Subsystems, Features, and Capabilities; F-35 unique infrared flares; reprogramming center access; F-35 Performance Based Logistics; software development/integration; aircraft ferry and tanker support; Detector Laser DSU-38A/B, Detector Laser DSU-38A(D-2)/B, KMU-572(D-2)/B Trainer (JDAM), 40 inch Wing Release Lanyard; GBU-53/B SDB II Weapon Load Crew Trainers (WLCT); GBU-53/B SDB II Practical Explosive Ordnance Disposal System Trainers (PEST); AGM-154C-1 JSOW Captive Flight Vehicles; AGM-154C-1 JSOW Dummy Air Training Missiles; AGM-154C-1 JSOW mission planning, integration support and testing, munitions storage security and training, weapon operational flight program software development; integration of the Joint Strike Missile; weapons containers; aircraft and munitions support and test equipment; communications equipment; provisioning, spares and repair parts; weapons repair and return support; personnel training and training equipment; weapon systems software, publications and technical documents; U.S. Government and contractor engineering, technical, and logistics support services; and other related elements of logistical and program support. The total estimated cost is $12.5 billion.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 85794?s=20 ---> US likely to provide Electronic Combat International Security Assistance Program (ECISAP) support to India, if it selects the F-21 or F-18 SH.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 87108?s=20 ---> India has the option for purchasing 36 additional Rafale combat aircraft along with 6 A330 MRTT aerial refuellers for less than €5 billion in total. French media.

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 98657?s=20 ---> In the above price calculations, for A330 probably lease costs was calculated.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Vivek K »

Perhaps sell LCA complex to Sri Lanka or some other country like Egypt and start pursuing Rafales now! I mean it’s only $6 billion or so - nothing for us!!
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

Vivek, whether we like it or not.....that is what is likely going to happen.

The A330 MRTT was selected twice by the IAF, only to be shot down twice by the MoD on account for cost. Leasing versus purchase is now the next option for the IAF. And the IAF's preference for the Rafale - over any of the other competitors in the MRFA contest - is also well known.

36 additional Rafales and six A330 MRTT will likely come. MRFA will not materialize. See this post I posted above (on this page) ---> viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7634&p=2504582#p2504582

Too many spokes in the wheel for 114 MRFA to materialize and that is a good thing.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Vivek K »

Yup - HAL is doing its part in promoting the Rafale by not delivering a single LCA in the past several months. So kya karega bechara! The whole system is corrupt from top to bottom!

This is not the way to becoming a Power by running into the arms of foreign vendors at every threat. If the Indian MIC is built using Public and Private Partnership/ownership, and if India continues to spend the billions on arms purchase from ITs MIC, India would never again have to fear China or Pakistan or their combined strength. This purchase reeks of fear!

But what do us fools know....
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

HAL lost a number of employees to COVID. That virus severely hampered HAL, like everyone and everything else in India. But I believe HAL is back on track for deliveries now.

And don't be concerned about 36 additional Rafales. Change perspective to the number 78.

114 minus (possibly) 36 additional Rafales = a shortfall of 78 airframes that the IAF still needs. Money crunch and time frame for acquiring any other phoren (fourth generation) fighter is now a reality. Acquiring a minimum of two squadrons - just to appease another country - of yet another fourth generation fighter (other than Rafale) will not help the IAF. The IAF will fight that tooth and nail and they will win. They know it.

The IAF will now be forced to examine other options - increasing serviceability of the present airframes (as proposed by Air Marshal Anil Chopra), acquisition of additional aircraft currently serving in the fleet (like the 21 MiG-29s under negotiation with Russia) and more Tejas. And if the IAF is insisting on 114 birds, then it will be detrimental to their force structure. Retirements are occurring at a much more rapid rate than acquisitions. There is only so much technical life you can squeeze out of an airframe. At some point, you have to retire them. They are fully aware of this and if the Govt offers them 36 additional Rafales (with six A330 MRTTs to boot), they will gladly take it.

What other option is there really for the IAF? The window has closed for 114 MRFA for the Indian Air Force.

You can thank Rahul Gandhi for that. And from his view point, that is a good thing :) Vendetta and revenge are consistent in politics. What the Congress did to the BJP, will not be forgotten by the BJP. If a future Congress Govt comes anywhere close to this deal, the BJP will skewer them. For a short term gain (maligning the BJP prior to the 2019 elections), the Congress dug their own grave. And the Alliance With Amreeka crowd on BRF were in glee at seeing the Rafale deal likely getting cancelled, but now these same strategic thinkers are grudgingly silent.

The first batch of 36 Rafales are well on their way to India. So much for Rahul Gandhi's great service to the nation :) And when more Tejas will get ordered (because there is no other option for the IAF), remember to thank these very same strategic thinkers.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Vivek K »

Who cares about RG? He is a has-been! A relic of India's tryst with destiny! The family that promised to take us to the 21st century and reverse "Brain Drain" yet here I am typing this from the US. INC = failed ideals and failed slogans.

But defence policy should come from the forces. The IAF has completely failed to plan running 20 year selection nautankis without the courage to stick with their decision making in 1-2 years. And the IAF does not understand the value of domestic MIC to national security and national economy. So it is as much a part of the problem as fools like RG are. Introducing an underpowered Jag to replace the underpowered Marut and now calling the LCA a 3 legged cheetah or Mig-21++.

History will not be kind to the Indian armed forces. They have robbed India of her prosperity by sending all our money and good paying jobs abroad. Try doing a small exercise - add up India's imports and correct them to today's dollars. The number will make you want to hang your head in shame and reverse the Rafale purchase. Why aren't 200 LCAs flying in IAF colors today?
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by LakshmanPST »

Personally, I think one of the reasons for IAF not yet moving ahead with 114 MRFA deal is CDS putting brakes to it... This is much like the 3rd Carrier of Indian Navy...
I see similarities between both the sagas... Just like Navy Chief repeatedly mentioning about 3rd Carrier, the Air Force chief is also repeating again and again that MRFA will go ahead...
And CDS gave conflicting public statements in both the cases...

Current CDS will retire next year and Air Force is probably going to try their luck with the next CDS... Let's see...
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

@ Vivek_K: No one gives a fig about RG. But thanks to his shenanigans, the 114 MRFA will not see the light of day.

Additional Rafales are going to come, whether we like it or not. With that being the choice, I would rather pick 36 Rafales over 114 MRFA.

I have asked you this before and I ask again (since you brought up the point of "....adding up all of India's imports and correcting them to today's dollars.") ---> Retire all the Su-30s, Jaguars, Mirage 2000s, MiG-29s and replace them with around 500 Tejas Mk1s. Will that work? Because all the aircraft I listed, are all imports. All are bad onlee.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by kit »

LakshmanPST wrote:Personally, I think one of the reasons for IAF not yet moving ahead with 114 MRFA deal is CDS putting brakes to it... This is much like the 3rd Carrier of Indian Navy...
I see similarities between both the sagas... Just like Navy Chief repeatedly mentioning about 3rd Carrier, the Air Force chief is also repeating again and again that MRFA will go ahead...
And CDS gave conflicting public statements in both the cases...

Current CDS will retire next year and Air Force is probably going to try their luck with the next CDS... Let's see...
I know its a serious matter , but CDS is only human and depends on his own background to make realistic judgement. Now is the next CDS from AF or Navy., i think that very much tells us whether we are getting a new carrier or shiny foreign planes.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Rakesh »

At tens of billions of dollars (even if it is spread out over a decade or more), making a decision of this nature goes way above the office of CDS. There is a lot of political and bureaucratic drama that has to take place. Neither the BJP or the Congress has the stomach for it.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by LakshmanPST »

One reason why IAF is probably insisting on MRFA is that once the deal is signed, a new assembly line will be set up in the country...

In Olden days we didn't have local options for fighter jets... So, having a local assembly line somehow secured the future of the fleet while also helping in the growth of local aerospace industry in someways...
But now, when we have realistic local options right in front of us, having a local assembly line of a foreign jet will be detrimental to local aerospace industry...
----
Having a local assembly line would mean that IAF can order more than the originally contracted jets without much hassle... A variety of reasons can be given for additional orders... No one will really question additional orders given to a local supply line unlike buying directly from a foreign country...

I was pleasantly surprised when I first learnt that IAF ordered Jaguars, a 1970s design, in as late as 2005 when other forces even started retiring them... Not sure if anyone really questioned the decision... At the same time, they couldn't order more Mirage2000s...

Similarly, IAF increased the order of Su30s from original 50+140 to 272 citing falling squadron numbers (Still remember the pressure from HAL to order more Su30s recently saying that Vendor ecosystem will be effected and IAF thankfully rejected it...)...
----
CDS's proposal of staggered purchase instead of buying in one go wouldn't really make much of a difference for IAF fleet. But the actual issue here for IAF is that there won't be a local assembly line in case of direct staggered purchase...
IAF or any future govt. can not simply keep ordering new foreign maal without being questioned...

Once a local assembly line comes, I'm pretty sure the number won't stop at 114 jets... And this will directly effect Tejas Mk2 and AMCA programs...
It is not just about not having enough money for 114 jets...
-
Hope we go for direct purchase of Rafales; atleast 36 more (though I personally want to see 72 more + reserves)... But I hope there won't be a local assembly line...
IAF should rather insist on localization of spares...
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by Vivek K »

Rakesh wrote:@ Vivek_K: No one gives a fig about RG. But thanks to his shenanigans, the 114 MRFA will not see the light of day.
Agree.
Additional Rafales are going to come, whether we like it or not. With that being the choice, I would rather pick 36 Rafales over 114 MRFA.
Respectfully disagree.
I have asked you this before and I ask again (since you brought up the point of "....adding up all of India's imports and correcting them to today's dollars.") ---> Retire all the Su-30s, Jaguars, Mirage 2000s, MiG-29s and replace them with around 500 Tejas Mk1s. Will that work? Because all the aircraft I listed, are all imports. All are bad onlee.
Admiral Sir - that is a poor question in my opinion and you are being facetious to defend your advocacy of the Rafale. But let's take a stab at it
a) Jaguars - 125+ in number - IAF does not take them to war, not even to Sri Lanka. I guess that the IAF feels its DPSA capabilities do not assure success for the missions they have to undertake. So retiring them and replacing with an equal number of LCAs - great solution.
b) Mirage 2000s - (50 odd) After having spent more than one would spend on new build aircraft in upgrading M2Ks (without an engine upgrade), I would let them live out their useful airframe life and then replace with LCA Mk2. But if money is no problem and grows on trees then wasting the $2+ billion on upg and investing in domestic MIC is a solution - I will let you take the call on it.
c) Mig-29s - Like the M2ks, these have just been upgraded with a lot of money spent on them. Once they complete their useful frame life - replace with MK2.
d) SU-30s - Have they reached the end of their useful life? Typical lifecycle is 4 decades and these were bought in 2000s when the 30ks were returned. So having invested a large sum in these, why would you ask for them to be put out of service? Once they have outlived their life, these should be replaced by the AMCA.

The bigger question is why doesn't IAF look for using the Mk1s, Mk1As to build up fleet strength. Why not place an order for 10 squadrons of LCAs instead of the way they have gone about it.
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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Post by srai »

^^^

For the IAF to get to 42 squadrons in an affordable way, LCA Mk1/A is the way. 1/3 of the 42 squadrons (around 12-14 sqdn) would need to be LCAs. The cost would be around $15 billion for 250 units.
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