MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

[Cain Marko]

There is no need for any more MiG-29s, than the ones in service + the 21 being acquired. The Tejas Mk1A and Mk2 are the future of the IAF.

By the same token, there is no need for ANY imported fighter in 120 numbers other than perhaps an additional 36 rafale.

[Rakesh]

The contest is not going to materialize in the time, the IAF envisages it. Too many political hurdles along the way.

Just close the contest and order another 2 - 3 more Rafale units.

[nachiket]

Why Indian Air Force wants to rush Rafale Fighters into front line service
https://guardingindia.com/india/why-ind ... e-service/
14 Jan 2021

“In terms of whether we go in for more Rafale or multirole fighter aircraft, it will be an open competition, as it is currently planned. We have received the RFI (Request for Information) responses. So this entire subject is under discussion and debate. And when this situation and the picture becomes clear and we finalize the way forward, we will share with you,” Bhadauria said in an address to the media at the beginning of this month.

This insistence on "open competition" comes straight out of babucracy obsession with following procedures even if they don't make sense for a particular procurement. There seems to be no mechanism to circumvent this when it needs to be. This is how we ended up in the original MRCA decade plus time wasting project. I am willing to bet nobody in the IAF wants to go through with another round of RFP and technical evaluations again. What the IAF does need to do though is drop the numbers drastically and reconcile themselves to the fact that they will not get more than 2 more squadrons of Rafales (there is simply no money). If they keep insisting on 114, this will end up just like the first MRCA and they will get nothing.

[Pratyush]

This whole MMRCA II affair is beyond my comprehension.

If the money was available the first deal for Rafale would have been for the 126 fighters to begin with. What has changed now that money is available today for 114 Foreign designed screw driveed in India fighters. If money is now somehow available today then why on get additional Rafale as all one time expenditure needed to be incurred has now been incurred and new aircrafts can be added in to service relatively quickly and cheaply.

[Aditya_V]

IAF numbers have aldready dropped drastically and we have 2 hostile and all our neighbours are ready to attack if we are weak.

But for most Indians there no sense of being emotionally Indian, I bet many in GOI want to somehow make thier commission and get thier kids to settle abroad- similarly it is not in any Foreign countries Interest to make sure we are self dependant. These 2 factors means there are many working for IAF to have an outdated imported solution, basically keeps us weak and unable to respond to Paki terror attacks.

[LakshmanPST]

Why Indian Air Force wants to rush Rafale Fighters into front line service
https://guardingindia.com/india/why-ind ... e-service/
14 Jan 2021

“In terms of whether we go in for more Rafale or multirole fighter aircraft, it will be an open competition, as it is currently planned. We have received the RFI (Request for Information) responses. So this entire subject is under discussion and debate. And when this situation and the picture becomes clear and we finalize the way forward, we will share with you,” Bhadauria said in an address to the media at the beginning of this month.

This looks like an old article which they recycled...

[kit]

IAF numbers have already dropped drastically, and we have 2 hostile and all our neighbours are ready to attack if we are weak.
These 2 factors means there are many working for IAF to have an outdated imported solution, basically keeps us weak and unable to respond to Paki terror attacks.

Indeed, India's much delayed artillery modernization by the congi traitors is a case in point.

[LakshmanPST]

List of all operational squadrons of IAF--->
https://alphadefense.in/know-your-air-f ... squadrons/
----
Current strength of IAF--->
12 Sqdns - Su30MKI
3 Sqdns - MIG29
3 Sqdns - Mirage 2000
6 Sqdns - Jaguars
7 Sqdns - MIG21 (6 Bisons & 1 Bis+M as confirmed by author in comments)
2 Sqdns - Tejas Mk1
1 Sqdn - Rafale

That is 34 squadrons...
----
To be retired in this decade (2021-30)--->
7 Sqdns - MIG 21s
2-3 Sqdns - Jaguars

9-10 Sqdns will retire in this decade...
-
New squadrons joining in this decade--->
4 Sqdns - Tejas Mk1/1A
1 Sqdn - Rafale
1 Sqdn - MIG29
1 Sqdn - Su30 MKI

That is 7 Squadrons...
That would take IAF strength to 31-32 squadrons depending on No. of Jaguars in operation...
-
To get more numbers in this decade (2021-30), here are the options infront of IAF--->
1) IAF goes ahead with MMRCA 2.0...
SQR finalization, RFP, Trails, bids evaluation, Cost negotiation, Contract signing will take 6 years considering MMRCA 1.0 timeline...
If RFP is issued in 2022, we can expect Contract signing only by 2028 and jets to be delivered starting 2031 till 2040...
Effectively, these jets will come only in next decade...
The timeline of the jets also directly collides with Tejas Mk2, TEDBF and AMCA production...
Even if we have 10 Trillion $ economy, there is no way we can have money for 4 different fighter jet production lines without compromising on atleast one program (which will be desi one)...
Even if we put aside the money issue for sometime, it makes zero sense to buy a 4+ generation Twin Engine foreign fighter when you have two 4+ generation and one 5+ generation fighters ready for production locally...
Politically least risky for BJP...

2) IAF cancels MMRCA and directly orders 6 Rafale squadrons...
It will take atleast 12 years for all jets to be delivered after Contract signing (unless we pay more)... If Contract signing happens in 2023, we can expect all jets delivered by 2035...
IAF strength will be only 34 squadrons by the end of decade, as only 2 squadrons will come in this decade and remaining 4 squadrons will anyway come next decade only...
Money might be an issue...
Deal will also have more complications as there will be talks of local production line due to high numbers...
And this will also push back AMCA production...
Politically most risky for BJP as this will require separate negotiations... Lots of PILs in Supreme Courts and allegations of favouritism...

3) IAF cancels MMRCA and orders 2-3 squadrons of Rafale...
If Contract signing happens in 2023, we can get all the jets delivered by 2029... IAF will maintain current strength of 34 squadrons by end of decade... IAF can then concentrate fully on Tejas Mk2 and AMCA...
Politically somewhat risky for BJP... But since this will be a repeat order of earlier deal, and all allegations in the first deal were already cleared in courts, they can sail through this one...
----
4) Other option infront of IAF is to order more numbers of existing types... IAF will definitely won't order more MIG29s, Mirage 2000s or Jaguars as these types are slated to retire next decade anyway...
IAF don't seem to want more Su30s as there are enough Heavy fighters already...
The only option will be to order more Tejas Mk1/1A and increase the production rate...

This option will also mean, the investment made in Rafale for 2 more squadrons and ISE will all go waste...
----
All in all, no matter what IAF does, the squadron strength won't increase beyond 34 in this decade...
So, best option is option 3... Buy 2-3 more Rafale squadrons and fully concentrate on Tejas Mk2 and AMCA in the coming decade...
Once Tejas Mk2, TEDBF and AMCA enter production, there is no looking back...

[Philip]

1 would prefer option 4. The Rafale cost is simply prohibitive.You can get for less than half the cost of a Rafale a good 4++ gen fighter from both east and west. Gripen,MIG-35 for example.
To keep numbers and sqds. healthy, a few more sqds. of MKIs( upgraded to SS std.), 29UPG/35s ( the 35 being a further upgrade of the Flanker,not an entirely new bird ), and perhaps one more Rafale sqd. added when funds permit it. The money saved should be invested in the Tejas Mk-1A lines and AMCA.I can't fathom why the Mk-2, an entirely new design which will take much time to perfect ,arriving at around the same time as AMCA,and will definitely be far more expensive than a Mk-1,perhaps is being pursued .Surely the AMCA will be a better bird and required to face- off with Chin stealth fighters. If there is a crisis here,the SU-57 in limited number could be bought before AMCA series production begins. Instead,further variants of the SE Tejas should be built in large number.For the med. role,the combination of Rafales,29s,M2Ks and upgraded Jags should number over 300.With around 300+ MKIs, and another 200+ Tejas fighters, we will have at least 40 sqds. without the need for yet another firang MMRCA fighter.

[rajsunder]

3) IAF cancels MMRCA and orders 2-3 squadrons of Rafale...
If Contract signing happens in 2023, we can get all the jets delivered by 2029... IAF will maintain current strength of 34 squadrons by end of decade... IAF can then concentrate fully on Tejas Mk2 and AMCA...
Politically somewhat risky for BJP... But since this will be a repeat order of earlier deal, and all allegations in the first deal were already cleared in courts, they can sail through this one...
----
4) Other option infront of IAF is to order more numbers of existing types... IAF will definitely won't order more MIG29s, Mirage 2000s or Jaguars as these types are slated to retire next decade anyway...
IAF don't seem to want more Su30s as there are enough Heavy fighters already...
The only option will be to order more Tejas Mk1/1A and increase the production rate...

This option will also mean, the investment made in Rafale for 2 more squadrons and ISE will all go waste...
----
All in all, no matter what IAF does, the squadron strength won't increase beyond 34 in this decade...
So, best option is option 3... Buy 2-3 more Rafale squadrons and fully concentrate on Tejas Mk2 and AMCA in the coming decade...
Once Tejas Mk2, TEDBF and AMCA enter production, there is no looking back...

I believe that India is going to go for a combination of 3 and 4. Order another 36-50 Rafale's and put extra effort on MK2A, TED-BF/ ORCA and AMCA with technologies getting shared between these three fighters.
At the same time try to acquire some cheap copies of our existing fighters like used Mirage 2000's from Qatar/ Taiwan and extra Mig-29's from soviet era unused frames. We need at least 4-5 squadrons of these fighters

[AkshaySG]

I believe that India is going to go for a combination of 3 and 4. Order another 36-50 Rafale's and put extra effort on MK2A, TED-BF/ ORCA and AMCA with technologies getting shared between these three fighters.
At the same time try to acquire some cheap copies of our existing fighters like used Mirage 2000's from Qatar/ Taiwan and extra Mig-29's from soviet era unused frames. We need at least 4-5 squadrons of these fighters

4-5 squadrons of second hand Mirages and Migs ??... For what?

We barely have enough funds for another two Rafale squadrons, Let alone get them and Migs/Mirages and keep funding Mk2/TEDBF/AMCA. It's not the USAF mate


Who in their right sense would order 100 planes which are slated to retire in a decade and whose replacement program (Tejas Mk2) is progressing well.... Something like that would have made sense in the early 2010's but now the time for that is long gone

First it would take them at least 3-4 years to get here, Secondly upgrading them to current standard (especially the Mirages) would be nearly as expensive as getting a new Tejas and you'd barely get 10 years out of them before they start being phased out. Attrition replacements are fine but anything in significant numbers would be crazy

If Squadron strength is that big an issue then it would be cheaper and more effective in the long term to open another production line for Tejas and order a couple more squadrons of Mk1A.

[rajsunder]

I believe that India is going to go for a combination of 3 and 4. Order another 36-50 Rafale's and put extra effort on MK2A, TED-BF/ ORCA and AMCA with technologies getting shared between these three fighters.
At the same time try to acquire some cheap copies of our existing fighters like used Mirage 2000's from Qatar/ Taiwan and extra Mig-29's from soviet era unused frames. We need at least 4-5 squadrons of these fighters

4-5 squadrons of second hand Mirages and Migs ??... For what?

We barely have enough funds for another two Rafale squadrons, Let alone get them and Migs/Mirages and keep funding Mk2/TEDBF/AMCA. It's not the USAF mate


Who in their right sense would order 100 planes which are slated to retire in a decade and whose replacement program (Tejas Mk2) is progressing well.... Something like that would have made sense in the early 2010's but now the time for that is long gone

First it would take them at least 3-4 years to get here, Secondly upgrading them to current standard (especially the Mirages) would be nearly as expensive as getting a new Tejas and you'd barely get 10 years out of them before they start being phased out. Attrition replacements are fine but anything in significant numbers would be crazy

If Squadron strength is that big an issue then it would be cheaper and more effective in the long term to open another production line for Tejas and order a couple more squadrons of Mk1A.

Do u think we can face 2 front war with 34 squadrons of fighters? What are we going to do if china starts poking and prodding us with their fighters, bombers and El-Int jets on our eastern border everyday like they do with Taiwan and Japan?
We need to make up the numbers in a year or two to at least 38-40 squadrons to face the onslaught.

[AkshaySG]

Do u think we can face 2 front war with 34 squadrons of fighters? What are we going to do if china starts poking and prodding us with their fighters, bombers and El-Int jets on our eastern border everyday like they do with Taiwan and Japan?
We need to make up the numbers in a year or two to at least 38-40 squadrons to face the onslaught.

Yes ... India has enough squadrons right now to defend even in a dual front situation ..And China can only bring limited amount of squadrons to their western front while India has much more flexibility wrt to its airbases .Not to mention a clear quality advantage as of right now . IAF and Taiwan/JSDF are not on the same planet and China knows that very well

First of all there is no "year or two " .. You could order any jet on the planet and you won't get the first bird before 3 years minimum , Even longer for a 5 squadron order with upgrades such as you suggest , So deliveries starting from 2024 at the (very generous) pace of 24 a birds a year , It would mean 2028 by the time the order is complete , which makes the whole point moot .

The way to build up to the ideal strength of 42 squadrons is via smart long term decisions , Not by dhoti shivering and panic spending billions on 100 jets which will end up obselete in 10 years .... You spend that money to develop your MIC , to ensure adequate number of Mk1A,Mk2s, AMCA are built and bought and maybe add another Rafale Squadron or two for silver bullet purposes .A short term outlook like that does nothing apart from send us deeper into a hole , having to replace even more squadrons than currently planned

So much talk about China then why not learn a little from them ? when India had the numerical advantage they didn't panic & simply write a blank check to the Russians who were offering them their best , No they bought enough just to defend their airspace and spent the other money building up their own MIC and now they're churning out fighters like clockwork .

Now this has become a little OT , So lets leave this here

[Philip]

Gents,the cashbox has to be opened, better now when prices are low and not later when everything escalates. The only problem I have for old M2Ks is the acquisition cost plus huge $50M cost of the upgrade.
The good news today is that the 21 mothballed MIG-29s and extra 12 MKIs will be sealed v.soon after the MK-1A order,the 21 MIGs having been moved to the factory floor. Also mentioned in reports are that more than the earlier 40 MKIs will be suitably upgraded. There is a grey area here about the upgrades. A recent report mentioned an option being studied to upgrade the aircraft using mainly desi systems,without an engine upgrade.That upgrade will inevitably have to happen,the sooner the better. What better desi radar can replace the existing Bars is a big Q as evev the LCA
Mk-1 As are to have Israeli radars. However, the greater desi eqpt. is used progressively the better,plus hopefully the supply chain will be smoother and cheaper.
The news that the Astra 110 km range AAM is now operational on the MKI with the ER version to feature later is another v.laudable milestone.

[LakshmanPST]

After Tejas, India moves ahead to procure more MiG-29s & Sukhois
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 320199.cms

IAF also plans to get the “acceptance of necessity” by this April-May for its long term mega "Make in India" project for 114 new fighters for over $20 billion under the "strategic partnership" policy.

If IAF really wants to go ahead, one way to speed up the process is to announce that the contest is for Twin Engine Medium Weight fighters...
They can show the govt.'s recent embargo list for excluding single engine fighters... Also put a limit on MTOW not more than 30Tonnes...

That would eliminate F1621, Gripen, Su35 and F15 straightaway...
For the remaining 4 jets, they should announce that only new features that were not tested in MMRCA 1.0 will be tested...
That will drastically reduce the time for the entire exercise...

[srai]

...

At the same time try to acquire some cheap copies of our existing fighters like used Mirage 2000's from Qatar/ Taiwan and extra Mig-29's from soviet era unused frames. We need at least 4-5 squadrons of these fighters

The time for raising new squadrons with second hand fighters (Mirage-2000/MiG-29) has passed. The fleet will start retirement in the next decade.

Any second hand airframes should be thought more as shoring up the reserve numbers of existing squadrons to keep them fully stocked until retirement.

[Philip]

Or fix its budget first! Max unit price range.The earlier SE contest abandoned had the Gripen as favourite. The IAF probably preferred an SE fighter with a reliable engine from M2K experience. I fear that the TE fighters
will up the cost and the budgetary blues will favour the SE rivals. However,the joker in the pack may be the SU-35
whose performance may equal or surpass the rest,just one pilot and costs less too than its equiv. main western rivals the Rafale and Typhoon,plus a Flanker variant with the MKI in service in v.large number. I think the Russians have thrown it into the ring to counter the heavier more expensive birds,while the cheapest bird is most likely going to be the MIG-35. It is for the French to lose (on price) having won the earlier contest and who may be in pole positionat the start.

[ramana]

Philip Rafale will be last import fighter. The 12 Mig 20s and 18 SU30MKI will keep the squadron strength.

Don't forget these squadron numbers was based on Gnat type of planes.
These are much capable planes now.

Tejas line should provide the numbers till 2034.

[Rakesh]

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 89056?s=20 ---> Just In: French media reporting that France's Presidential office is leading a massive diplomatic effort to secure a “package deal” of 5 billion euros for India, that would cover the order of at least 36 additional Rafales, six A330 MRTT, and more than a hundred Panther helicopters.

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 82083?s=20 ---> This report has also been confirmed by 'Air & Cosmos' which is the largest aerospace publication in France.

https://twitter.com/Firezstarter1/statu ... 35424?s=20 ---> A mix of outright purchase (Rafales, Panthers), leasing (refuelers), perhaps? Be as it may, 4 squadrons of Rafales, additional upgraded Flankers, MiG-29s, would allow IAF sufficient time to await more Tejas/MWF, AMCA and recast MMRCA as a 5G program, if and only if it needs to.

[Rakesh]

I had to share this one gem from JayS. Hilarious!

https://twitter.com/TheAvenger___/statu ... 76320?s=20 ---> #Just In: IAF plans to get the “acceptance of necessity” by this April-May this for its long-term mega “Make in India” project for 114 new fighters for over $20 billion under the “strategic partnership” policy.

https://twitter.com/nileshjrane/status/ ... 12708?s=20 ---> Long, long way to go. AMCA and TEDBF might come before MRFA. LOL.

[LakshmanPST]

Looks like IAF is going ahead with MRCA 2.0...
While it seems logical for us to see the deal cancelled and go for 2 Rafale squadrons, I still tried to understand IAF's perspective on why they're going ahead with this Tender...

One point that finally made sense is this---> IAF's planned squadron composition by 2040-45...
The numbers for Tejas Mk2 & AMCA that IAF is planning to buy kept changing in news in the last one year and only recently the numbers were somewhat firmed up and it all fell in place...
-
The numbers are as follows:-
126-140 AMCA (2 Squadrons of AMCA Mk1 and 5 squadrons of AMCA Mk2, Total 7 Squadrons)...
Around 170 Tejas Mk2 (8 Squadrons with 21 jets per squadron totalling 168... Or 9 squadrons with 19 jets per squadron totalling 171)
-
So, IAF's planned force structure after all these inductions in 2040s will be as follows:-
A) Single Engine Light fighters:-
1) Tejas Mk1/1A:- 6 sqdns
2) Tejas Mk2:- 8-9 sqdns
Total:- 14-15 Squadrons

Twin Engine Medium Weight fighters:-
1) Rafale:- 2 sqdns
2) AMCA:- 7 sqdns
3) MMRCA:- 6 sqdns
Total:- 15 squadrons

C) Heavy fighter class:-
1) Su30 MKI:- 13 sqdns
Total:- 13 squadrons
-
All totalled, we get the magic number 42-43 squadrons...
-
MRCA 2.0 is no longer to fill gap of falling numbers, but to fill the remaining numbers to take the total strength to 42 squadrons...
Someone has joked about MRCA coming after AMCA, but I believe IAF already took that possibility into account... Infact, MRCA will come parallelly with AMCA...
-
Projected induction dates are as follows:-
1) Tejas Mk1A:- 83 Jets
Contract signing:- 2021
Rate of production:- 16 per year
Deliveries:- 2024-2028/29

2) Tejas Mk2:- 170 jets
Contract signing:- 2028 (projected IOC in 2025 & FOC in 2026, assuming worst case 2028 though I believe it might happen earlier)
Rate of production:- 24 or 32 per year (I guess it will be 24 only)
Deliveries:- 2031-2037/38 @ 24 per year or 2031-2035/36 @ 32 per year...

3) MRCA:- 114 jets
Contract signing:- 2028 (assuming RFP in 2022 and 6 years after RFP based on MMRCA 1.0 timeline)
Rate of production:- 12 per year
Deliveries:- 2031-2039/40

4) AMCA:- 140 jets (40 Mk1 and 100 Mk2)
As per Satish Reddy Sir's video, AMCA Mk1 will be ready by 2030 and Mk2 will be ready by 2034...
Contract signing:- 2032 for Mk1 and 2036 for Mk2 (worst case assumption)
Rate of production:- Assuming 16-24 per year
Deliveries:- 2035-2043
-
Starting 2045, Su30s will be up for retirement...
In all probability, once Tejas Mk2 is productionized in 2026, ADE will (and should) start working on a new 6th Gen fighter jet program to replace Su30s...
They'll have 20 years time and AMCA experience...
----
Anyways, coming back to MMRCA...
IAF is probably confident about funding since it is a decade away before actual payments are to be made...
Also, its timeline is somewhere between Tejas Mk2 and AMCA... IAF can probably sail through this...

Personally, I feel IAF should order 2 more Rafale squadrons and 4 squadrons of TEDBF/ORCA, instead of 6 MRCA... The timeline of TEDBF is more or less sametime as MRCA...
But I guess IAF want Rafale only... They probably do not want another type of jet in the mix...

[Rakesh]

How we are our worst enemies when defence procurement is concerned
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blo ... concerned/
20 Jan 2021

By Air Marshal BD Jayal (retd)

The MOD has now restarted the entire process of issuing a request for information (RFI) for what is being termed the multi-role fighter aircraft (MRFA), a change in nomenclature that appears merely cosmetic since all original contestants are reportedly participants! Not only will this prolong the IAF’s operational gaps for more than a decade, but should the choice fall on another type, this will add to limiting operational flexibility and significantly to overall ownership costs. Merely to appear to be ‘impartial and transparent’, this is a heavy price in security terms.

[Vips]

The RFI/RFP process needs to be done lest the French get haughty. With the Pro Paki and Pro china Biden is in the White House we need the French to woo us and be in our corner.

[Philip]

Sensible advice from Adm. Raks, acquiring a firang fighter/JV only for 5th.-gen reqs.
The gap in nos.,sqds., can easily be made up with " more of the same" types in service,esp. MKIs,MIG-29UPGs,Rafales, and increased nos. of LCA Mk-1A/B/Cs whatever.
A small number of SU-57s if the need to counter Chin stealth fighters which may be given to Pak too, plus the acceleration of the AMCA which could and should to save time incorporate some firang content just as the LCAs have around 50%+ firang content.

[ArjunPandit]

for whatever it is worth,
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN29X0UP

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Boeing has received a licence from the U.S. government to offer its F-15EX fighter jet to the Indian air force, a senior executive said on Thursday.

Boeing will compete with the Swedish Gripen and the French Rafale among others for the IAF’s plan to buy 114 multirole aircraft to replace its Soviet era fleet.

Ankur Kanaglekar, director, India Fighters Lead, Boeing Defense, Space & Security, said discussions on the F-15EX had taken place earlier between the two governments.

“Now that we have the marketing licence it allows us to talk to the Indian Air Force directly about the capability of the fighter. We have started doing that in a small way,” he said, adding that the conversations are expected to gather pace during the Aero India show next week.

on a side note, boeing could be desparate to have this deal due to the recent economic worries of the company...if we move fast we might get a deal better than usual....not peddling american stuff..but a way to further entry of desi companies into US MIC ..
with regards to things not working as per plans for ba in short: pandemic, 777, 787, tankers, biden reviewing or freezing deals(ok more effect on LMT) with KSA/UAE. Company posted record losses yeterday.

[Philip]

The need is not another heavy type like thc F-15 E when we already have 270+ MKIs,the backbone of the force, but a smaller,cheaper and cost-effective multi-role fighter with either an SE or TE config. If it is an unavoidable neccessity, as Tejas production cannot replace hundreds of retiring types fast enough, may the best bird win on merit,not firang political pressure. However,I still think alternative options are there in extra numbers of existing types and extra Tejas lines.

[brar_w]

for whatever it is worth,
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN29X0UP

Ever since Boeing created an "EX" baseline with the USAF, they have been working to export clearance so that it could be a part of their portfolio alongside the F/A-18 Super Hornet. Their aim was to slowly transition from the Advanced Eagle to the EX as the latter is going to be easier to market due to it being a USAF baseline as opposed to KSA or even Qatar. In fact they started doing this with Qatar which is a KSA baseline re-hosted with a new radar and cockpit upgrades. With EX they go to the USAF software baseline, and the GaN EW/EA suite. So it is just one type they are marketing in the future as opposed to fragmented variants with varying capabilities.

They were putting these wheels in motion last year and numerous reports going back to last summer (some even earlier) point to this. So one shouldn't really make much of this other than Boeing just going through the formalities so that they are always able to offer their entire fighter jet lineup in future competitions and to customers who it may be having a conversation with. Lockheed did something very similar when it moved away from a Block-60 based advanced F-16 to a baseline that was close or identical to what the USAF was funding as upgrades to its fleet (which is essentially what the block 70/72 has become).

[ArjunPandit]

The need is not another heavy type like thc F-15 E when we already have 270+ MKIs,the backbone of the force, but a smaller,cheaper and cost-effective multi-role fighter with either an SE or TE config. If it is an unavoidable neccessity, as Tejas production cannot replace hundreds of retiring types fast enough, may the best bird win on merit,not firang political pressure. However,I still think alternative options are there in extra numbers of existing types and extra Tejas lines.

there are two things, from the following perspectives
1. logistics : Existing fighters
2. overall capability amongst the new fighters: F15 EX
3. cost: Mig 29
4. Time to fill order: May be Existing fighters
5. Political leverage: F15Ex
6. Lifetime costs: F15EX
7. Entry into US MIC: F15Ex
What we have to realize is that in case of a strong attrition having a US fighter allows to dip into the huge US stocks. Of course it comes at the cost political independence. But then i suppose we have enough of Su 30s, mirages, rafales to take care of that. If US alignment goes away then we are looking at bigger problems after alphabet soup treaties

perhaps some lease programs..

Not recommending anything just my thoughts. I still prefer same money into a tejas production line or a jet engine program rather than a new fighter..

[AkshaySG]

What we have to realize is that in case of a strong attrition having a US fighter allows to dip into the huge US stocks. Of course it comes at the cost political independence. But then i suppose we have enough of Su 30s, mirages, rafales to take care of that. If US alignment goes away then we are looking at bigger problems after alphabet soup treaties

perhaps some lease programs..

Not recommending anything just my thoughts. I still prefer same money into a tejas production line or a jet engine program rather than a new fighter..

I've seen this heavy attrition argument a couple of times and it is illogical .... For a situation like that to happen what you're essentially saying is that India will lose most of its own F-15s and lose so many of the other Two Hundred and seventy Su-30's that we would need to "dip " in to US stocks to get more heavy/superiority fighters .

The crews of those "attritions" will be 100x harder to replace than the frames and I don't think USAF is gonna loan us some of theirs are they ? ... Replacement planes mean nothing when you have no one left to fly them

Plus if we're losing 8-10+ squadrons of fighters then that means either IAF forgot how to fly fighters or that China brought in some super tech which is beyond our capabilities and in both cases "dipping " into US stock for more frames does nothing .


When buying a US Fighter what is far more likely than extra flexibility is extra constraints ... It ensures that we'll be chewing nervously on our nails every time we want to use that jet in an offensive capability , It means every time we conduct a mission using those jets you'll have the elements of the US Congress and Senate making statements .

The engine choices means we are already close to their camp but we can still keep trying to become more independent

[Philip]

Rolls Royce,SNECMA,SATURN,EJ, etc.,alternatives to GE and P&W. 4 major arms supplier nations can be relied upon to withstand sanctions while the US is unreliable.The US sanctions after P-2 severly delayed the LCA programme and ISRO's launches due to Ru cryogenic engine sanctions in the weak Yeltsin era.They are Russia,France and Israel. Britain too,but both the Brits and Israelis need to sanitise their eqpt. for US components. The first 3 seem to be the nation's favourites looking at acquisitions and mix of eqpt. in many of our weapon systems. Therefore,we must have a ready alternative for US components at hand and in the case of aircraft,build at least 2 prototypes with different engines ,test them both and select the best,well knowing an alternative is available.RR has now offered marine engines for our warships,an alternative to UKR ones.Direct G-2-G acquisitions for the IAF scuttling the MMRCA 2.0 contest will save much time,money,etc.

[ArjunPandit]

akshay you are assuming that we will lose only in air. War time attrition also happens on ground. In any case, there are missions that are undertaken even though there is a strong air defence. Such cases always lead to high attrition. War planning and not fighting is done on the basis of our invincibility over enemies. Also, during wartime you dont need planes only, there would be a surge requirements of spares parts. You can say that we need to plan for that better, but you are placing trust on MoD to clear that.
In the end F16s did manage to attack IAF fighters by firing missiles on Su 30s and Mig 21. So dont buy the argument for constraints. Even US mission planning in drone strikes on paki eastern border used to get complicated at the nadir of US pax relationship in 2010-11 periods due to F16s.

The point is not 8-10 sqdn losing, i too do not expect that levels of attrition, but it is also about being able to ramp up inventory for CAPs, recon and purely defensive purposes in the worst case of a two front war.
Again this is just a thought I am still in favour of putting that money for tejas, that is going to give us more returns in all aspects over a long run.

[Rakesh]

@ArjunPandit: When you are talking about dipping into huge US stocks, please note that in order to do that, the platform that you are dipping into has to be of similar spec to the platform that you are replacing.

A good example would be the P-8I Neptune, of which around 12 examples serve with the Indian Naval Air Arm. If all 12 get destroyed on ground, it is not feasible to simply dip into the US Navy stocks. The P-8A Poseidon is a different beast altogether, with equipment that is simply just not there on the P-8I Neptune. There are more advanced systems on board the P-8A versus the P-8I.

Assuming we end up with the F-21 for the IAF. To dip into USAF stocks, is not going to occur. Because there is no F-21 in service with the USAF. You cannot just dip into any F-16 variant that the USAF operates. Because the infrastructure set up will exist for the F-21 and not any F-16 variant out there. There is a greater opportunity with the F-15EX and the F-18E/F Block III, as the US Air Force and US Navy will operate them, but that is assuming such an agreement actually exists. But now we are getting into hypothetical scenarios.

The F-15EX will not be a strong American contender in the MRFA contest. Absolutely fabulous plane, but the OPEX will be horrendous. It makes sense for current F-15 operators (Israel, Saudi Arabia, Japan, etc) but not for India. If that kind of money was lying around with the IAF to invest, the F-35 would be better.

The F-18SH Block III is the only real contender in the MRFA contest. It is the only one that will satisfy the Navy (who has decided to hop on to the IAF's MRFA contest). And the US Navy will operate that platform for a sizeable time. So support will always exist. But the IAF will play spoil sport, unless convinced that it makes sense to invest their meagre CAPEX into yet another 4th generation platform.

By the way, the exact same scenario would exist for the Rafale F3R. If the Chinese obliterate Hasimara AFS and destroy the Rafales of No 101 Falcons Squadron, the IAF cannot just borrow Rafales from the French Air Force. The F3R + ISE updates, is a variant unique to India. You cannot borrow any Rafale from France, Qatar or Egypt. If the IAF manages to get Qatari or UAE M2Ks, these birds too will have to upgraded to the IAF spec variant. The systems on board Qatar and UAE Mirage 2000-9s are different from the IAF Mirage 2000-9s. No air force will operate a foreign bird of different variants. Think of the logistical nightmare that would be.

It does not work that way, with any platform. This is an argument that is put forth by folks who want to see a US bird in IAF and/or IN service, but the argument lacks merit. If a large portion of the fleet gets destroyed on the ground, that would show that sufficient countermeasures were not in place to cater for such an eventuality. And if a large portion of the fleet gets destroyed in the air, then either Boeing or Lockheed Martin were lying about their platforms (impossible scenario) or the IAF pilots were not sufficiently trained on the platform (equally impossible scenario).

There is absolutely nothing - not one single platform - in the PLAAF inventory (including J-20) that will prevail over the F-15EX, F-21 or F-18SH Block III in an air war. I am not underestimating the PLAAF, but Boeing and Lockheed Martin are way ahead of their Chinese counterparts in aircraft design, sensors, radar, weapons, etc.

Please also note, that any future Indo-Pak or Indo-China war will not be a war of long attrition. The nature of warfare has changed. A full blown war will be over in a week and loss of men & material will be massive. Skirmishes even less than that i.e. Balakot was a prime example. By the time the replacement platform comes, the war will be over.

[Rakesh]

https://twitter.com/Chopsyturvey/status ... 50688?s=20 ---> Rafale is a serious contender for our project to buy 114 multirole fighter aircraft: Indian Air Force Chief, Air Chief Marshal RKS Bhadauria in Jodhpur.

[ArjunPandit]

valid points rakesh ji, thanks for clarification. Only one point, I disagree with you on a war regarding china. Many before us have tried to predict the war and failed, that includes best of american, german and russian war planners. I choose not to. Other than that, all your points are valid and have convinced me! so apart from hafta to big brother it seems no other reason for us to buy..as always..i perfer similar money on tejas production..

[ArjunPandit]

https://twitter.com/Chopsyturvey/status ... 50688?s=20 ---> Rafale is a serious contender for our project to buy 114 multirole fighter aircraft: India Air Force Chief Air Chief Marshal RKS Bhadauria in Jodhpur.

paisa kahan hai sir? aur agar hai to pls tejas production ko expedite kar denn..more tejas will be much better bang for buck...and will do a cluster £uck to china and pak..more strategic independence..better to have a glut of tejas rather than keep salivating for others..

[Rakesh]

The Tejas Mk1/Mk1A are American birds and will remain so, as long as she flies with a GE F404 turbofan. The Tejas Mk2 will also be an American bird, as long as she flies with a GE F414 turbofan. If MRFA ends up being a non-American bird, one can assume that is how the IAF is looking at it. Spread the risk. However, 114 will not come. Unless the budget coming out next month, springs a surprise on everyone. There are rumours that the defence budget is going to see a massive increase.

Then everything is on the table. 114 MRFA + 36 to 57 carrier based fighters, 65,000 ton CATOBAR aircraft carrier, etc, etc, etc. I have heard this talk before, let us see if it turns out to be real.

Predicting whether war will happen vs that war being a long drawn out affair (i.e. a war of attrition) are two different things.

[Rakesh]

By the way, the exact same scenario would exist for the Rafale F3R. If the Chinese obliterate Hasimara AFS and destroy the Rafales of No 101 Falcons Squadron, the IAF cannot just borrow Rafales from the French Air Force. The F3R + ISE updates, is a variant unique to India. You cannot borrow any Rafale from France, Qatar or Egypt.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7266&p=2481963#p2481963

[Anujan]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 612885.cms

With the deal for 83 LCA Tejas Mark 1A aircraft set to be signed during upcoming Aero India, the Indian Air Force is now looking to focus on the multirole fighter aircraft project under which it is planning to acquire 114 combat aircraft expected to cost over Rs 1.3 lakh crore......"The 83 LCA Tejas would be replacing the four squadrons of the MiG-21 fighter jets which are set to be phased out in near future. The focus would now be on the 114 fighter jets project....The Request for Information (RFI) has been responded to by several global players including fighter jet manufacturers from the US, France, Russia and Sweden. While the Americans are offering from the F-15 Strike Eagle, F-18 Super Hornet and an F-16 variant by the name of F-21, the Russians are likely to offer the MiG-35 and a Sukhoi fighter. Sweden's Saab is looking to pitch in with its Gripen fighter aircraft which it says is far more advanced than the one which was offered in 2007 to the Indian Air Force. France would be participating in the tender with the Rafale fighter jets. Recently, Air Force chief Air Chief Marshal RKS Bhadauria had termed the Rafale as one of the strong contenders for the 114 fighter acquisition project.

[Kartik]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 612885.cms

With the deal for 83 LCA Tejas Mark 1A aircraft set to be signed during upcoming Aero India, the Indian Air Force is now looking to focus on the multirole fighter aircraft project under which it is planning to acquire 114 combat aircraft expected to cost over Rs 1.3 lakh crore......"The 83 LCA Tejas would be replacing the four squadrons of the MiG-21 fighter jets which are set to be phased out in near future. The focus would now be on the 114 fighter jets project....The Request for Information (RFI) has been responded to by several global players including fighter jet manufacturers from the US, France, Russia and Sweden. While the Americans are offering from the F-15 Strike Eagle, F-18 Super Hornet and an F-16 variant by the name of F-21, the Russians are likely to offer the MiG-35 and a Sukhoi fighter. Sweden's Saab is looking to pitch in with its Gripen fighter aircraft which it says is far more advanced than the one which was offered in 2007 to the Indian Air Force. France would be participating in the tender with the Rafale fighter jets. Recently, Air Force chief Air Chief Marshal RKS Bhadauria had termed the Rafale as one of the strong contenders for the 114 fighter acquisition project.

They haven't yet even gotten an Acceptance of Necessity for this MRFA contract. Optimistically, it is 4-5 years from now that a contract will be signed given all the stages it has to go through.

And to think that they believe that they'll manage to somehow manage to have heavy twin seaters and medium weight single engine fighters all in the same competition. If they do manage to be sensible and keep price as one of the "main aspects" or factors that will decide the outcome, then only will there be a chance to see the competition end up in a contract.

Sources said that for selection in the project, the main aspects would be the capabilities of the aircraft on offer along with the price at which it is offered. The Indian Air Force is also developing the parameters on which it will select the fighters which would be both single-engine and double-engine and would be both single-engine and double-engine and would create a level-playing field for them in the competition.

[Philip]

With the 3rd. Tejas line which we've been crying for ( and congratsto Rajnathji andthe GOI) to be inaugurated today, LCA production will hopefully " take-off" in style. At a hopeful rate of 16 to 24/ yr., in 5 years we should be able to replace all Bisons d
which have done fantastic service over decades. But we still have around 5 to 6 sqds. of legacy MIGs of various types to replace.This can best be done through extra nos. of types in service,MKIs,MIG-29s,Rafales,etc.

I saw a tit-bit recently in an AWST review of the 3 Eurocanards , still going strong with steady
global orders.It said that there are early tranche Rafales available with the French.Why not acquire them on lease until new ones can be built? Rafales 5/6/7 block development will see these birds flying for the French upto 2070!!! Right now they are the top dogs,supported by M2Ks. In the future they will be the support cast for the next-gen stealth fighter being planned along with UCAVs for the French.

Another news report said that the TE LCA Mk-2 would fly by 2023,series production starting by 2026. Since most of the systems,etc. would be similar to the Mk-1A, no LSP nos. would happen,straight tp series production. This would take over from 1A production. If these plans take-off on schedule and with no great cost escalation, then MMRCA 2.0 can be dispensed with.
One important caveat that there is no compromise with the quality of the aircraft being built. HAL be warned,the pvt. sector is coming up fast,Tata's IP on the Grob jet ,military variants,will be the foot in the door for building military fighters in the future.