MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Rakesh » 17 Feb 2020 10:10

srin wrote:One question: when ordering fighters, how much is usually paid upfront and what percent is paid on delivery?

There is a payment schedule agreed upon in the contract that was signed in Sept 2016. I know for a fact that the first instalment has been paid and I am sure by now additional instalments have been paid as well.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby brar_w » 17 Feb 2020 17:21

Rakesh wrote:Mort-ji, industry standard is 3 years from contract signature to delivery of the first batch. Even LM said the same, during the single engine fighter contest. All the other OEMs will be more or less the same time frame.


I think when push comes to shove and there is room available to move faster, OEM's can do that. For example, the USAF contract for the first LOT of F-15 EX's is expected to be issued next month (Congress approved it in December, but a formal contract is yet to be issued and now may be delayed because P&W is protesting a sole source award to GE). Boeing has already begun working on the aircraft and will deliver the first two in December of this year itself. It comes down to how much slack you have in your final assembly process, how flexible your other customers are, and what power and influence you have over your supply chain. And finally, how much different a particular aircraft is from the one you already produce.

Payments on aircraft are usually issued based on an agreed upon schedule that is generally tied to meeting production and assembly milestones.

Rakesh wrote:Reportedly the line can churn out 33 Rafales a year, but the customer will have to pay for a quicker delivery schedule and none of the customers are interested in doing that


It is not just the ability or non-ability of the customers to pay higher for fast deliveries. Dassault has to make a business case to its suppliers when it asks them to ramp up supplies even though it itself may have enough slack in its final assembly line to produce the aircraft faster. Dassault is a fairly small OEM with a commercial business that has not been doing that great. Its power and influence over its suppliers is going to be very different from an Airbus, Boeing or Lockheed. Therefore it must really show them a sustained high production rate justifying the sort of investment on their end to begin producing components at a faster rate.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Philip » 17 Feb 2020 19:20

CM,and others.My prophetic views have come true.BRF ahead of the curve. I said that desi pressure to buy more LCAs might derail the MMRCA 2.0 appears to be taking off. Mainstream media, TOI,Hindu,Deccan Chronicle,etc.

The extra 83 LCA MK-1As have been approved for 39K cr.,deliveries to start in 3 years time.Thanks to former DM,Nirmala S,who red-flagged HAL's outrageous costs from 56Kcr. to just 39Kcr, along with the maintenance and infra. package. HAL was adding profit onto firang components! The IAF also reportedly cut out some requirements, unspecified.

Now apart from this report,another about the CDS having the final say in defence acquisitions, after hearing the 3 chiefs out, hints that the IN's call for "a 3rd. carrier and the IAF's extra 100 jets at one go" wiill not find favour. The above report about the 83 LCA Mk-1 As shows that when available,a desi option will get first bite of the cherry. With this decision.money for the MMRCA 2.0 will be hard to find, and incremetal additions of fighters in service like extra MKIs,MIG-29s,upgrades of the MKI and Jaguar fleet will take precedence over a batch of new ( old) firang fighters.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby ldev » 17 Feb 2020 21:29

Philip wrote:CDS having the final say in defence acquisitions, after hearing the 3 chiefs out, hints that the IN's call for "a 3rd. carrier and the IAF's extra 100 jets at one go" wiill not find favour.


When has the IAF ever inducted 100 jets at one go? Even the SU-30MKI production/assembly rate for HAL was 12 per year. And were the 222 manufactured by HAL ever paid for in one installment?

As far as the LCA Mk1A is concerned, the cost of 83 is pegged at Rs 45,000 crores to be paid to HAL. That is 6.3 billion dollars for 83 bare bone aircraft without missiles, munitions, support infrastructure at IAF bases etc. That is $75 million per aircraft. And while it forms the foundation of a domestic aircraft manufacturing eco-system, I think one has to also assess the cost/benefit implications from the IAF standpoint. Is it willing to pay a 50% premium, a 100% premium or a 200% premium in terms of pure cost vs capability to have a domestic product? I think the LCA and it's derivatives including the MWF have to be an integral part of the IAF force structure but HAL should not be given the impression that it can charge whatever it wants just because it is the sole domestic manufacturer. If Boeing can produce an F-15EX for a fly away price of 80 million dollars, then HAL has to do everything possible to get the LCA cost down to half of that, considering the relative capability of the 2 aircraft.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Philip » 17 Feb 2020 23:23

The cost is not 45K cr. but 39Kcr. That's around $5,5B for 83 .We've budgeted around $8.5 B for just 36 Rafales. Work out hhe math. But yes,at 56K cr. which was what HSL wanted earlier,the price was in the MKI range,causing Nirmala S. to blow a fuse.

The 100 at one go does not mean all 100 in one delivery,but one order for 100. 80+ Mk- 1As,21 extra MIG-29s,another sqd. of MKIs to replace losses and upgrade of first 40 MKIs to BMos std., plus a limited upgrade of 120 Jags is a decent enough number to get the ball rolling with replacements and capability improvement. I've deliberately not clubbed the impending Rafales, altogether ,quite a significant number.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Manish_Sharma » 17 Feb 2020 23:55

F 15 ex can carry payload of 14.75 tons/29,500 pounds? :shock:



MEDIUM-MRCA is strange where tiny grippen, medium Rafale + ef2k , heavy su 35 and f 15 are competing.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Philip » 18 Feb 2020 05:00

Igzackly! Quite a circus menagerie.The IAF wants to taste the entire menu!

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Kartik » 18 Feb 2020 06:17

the IAF hasn't evaluated all the types that have been offered. I hope the IAF puts a max MTOW limitation that puts both the Su-35 and F-15EX out of the contest at the RFP stage.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Indranil » 18 Feb 2020 10:08

Frankly, they should eliminate the competition and double down nm on how to get ORCa/TEDBF as early as possible. Do whatever it takes.

If not eliminate the single engines too. That role can be taken care of by Tejas derivatives. That will leave the true medium weights. F-18, Mig35, EF and Rafale. EF is at the most disadvantage. F18 may have a chance due to the navy requirement. The race truly should be between the Mig35 and the Rafale. The ultimate decision should be decided based on the ultimate decider: how much money do we have? Upgraded Mig35s can become the test bed of all desi avionics packages that will go the AMCA.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby nash » 18 Feb 2020 11:41

Hindustan Aeronautics Limited back on Rafale Radar, talks on for making jets in India

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... aign=cppst

If additional orders are placed for Rafale — Chief of Defence Staff Gen Bipin Rawat hinted recently that 36 more fighter jets could be ordered within four years — a work share model could be worked out to manufacture parts for the fighter jet at HAL facilities.

Image


IMO may be by next year they might ink the deal and then by 2024 they will deliver of next batch of Rafale.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Thakur_B » 18 Feb 2020 12:23

^^ Finally some sense prevails.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby arvin » 18 Feb 2020 14:18

Continuing the contest is a waste of time & money for everyone. If the above 36 comes, hardly makes sense for the remaining 74 to be of totally different type.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Bart S » 18 Feb 2020 14:27

Continuing on with 36 Rafales is the best decision (hopefully would lead to cancellation of unnecessary competitions) but HAL making them is a bad idea - this does not benefit the nation in any way - it just keeps the HAL unions and bureaucrats happy. Better to buy them outright from France and work out some other quid pro pro.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby ArjunPandit » 18 Feb 2020 15:38

OH my my the CDS statement is quite ominous in my opinion..smaller size means that there is high chance deal might go through given rafale precedence. All along i hoped that the order of 110 fighters +57 fighters wont happen till Tejas and its kids dont come online..seems like that might not be the case...

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby ashishvikas » 18 Feb 2020 16:05

arvin wrote:Continuing the contest is a waste of time & money for everyone. If the above 36 comes, hardly makes sense for the remaining 74 to be of totally different type.


It would make sense if remaining 74 are turn out to be Mk1A..

Just keep ordering 4 Squd of LCAs for every 2 Squd of Rafales.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Aditya_V » 18 Feb 2020 16:08

I think it is logical

1) 36 Rafale
2) 36 odd Su 30 MKI line
3) 21 Mig 29's

and whole lot more of

4) LCA MK1's and 1A
5) 16-18 LCA MK1 Navy
6) MWF
7) TEDBF

moving on to AMCA at the end of the decade.

Probably a few squadrons of imported 5th gen Su-57 if ready or F-35 if USA allows contract in 2025 with deliveries by 2029.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby LakshmanPST » 18 Feb 2020 19:17

By 2030, without any new orders, the squadron strength will be
1) Su30 MKIs:- 13 with 20 jets per squadrons (14 if they reorganize at lesser nos.)
2) MIG 29 UPG:- 4
3) M2ks:- 3
4) Tejas Mk1/1A:- 6
5) Rafale:- 2
6) Jaguars:- 3 (assuming)

That will be 31 squadrons...
-
After 2030, the Mirage 2000s, MIG 29s and Jaguars will all be replaced progressively by MWF... So without any other procurement, squadron strength will continue to remain at 31 squadrons until post 2035 before AMCA production picks up...
-
As much as we want more Tejas Mk1A orders, I don't think IAF will order more Mk1/1A jets... And if MWF is not ready on time, it will risk losing 10 more squadrons between 2030-2035... It is a huge risk...
So I still believe IAF will go ahead with MMRCA, unless and until it is super-confident about MWF coming out of production line by 2028... It will provide the necessary backup...
-
Even if MWF comes in time, without MMRCA and with 2 more squadrons of Rafale, IAF strength will remain at 33 squadrons for the next 15 years...
If MMRCA comes, it will progressively increase the strength to 37 squadrons in the next 15 years...
-
So to conclude, I believe MMRCA won't get cancelled unless IAF wants to remain at 33 squadrons for the next 15 years and unless it is confident about MWF being ready on time...
Let's hope for the best...

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Kanson » 18 Feb 2020 19:40

Unless ofcourse if we believe MWF&AMCA will take that long to enter...

Maybe those in high office knows exactly of these timelines and their repercussions.

And this reflects in their statements. Pls check DRDO/ADA chief's
recent statements.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Rakesh » 18 Feb 2020 22:43

Indranil wrote:Frankly, they should eliminate the competition and double down nm on how to get ORCa/TEDBF as early as possible. Do whatever it takes.

If not eliminate the single engines too. That role can be taken care of by Tejas derivatives. That will leave the true medium weights. F-18, Mig35, EF and Rafale. EF is at the most disadvantage. F18 may have a chance due to the navy requirement. The race truly should be between the Mig35 and the Rafale. The ultimate decision should be decided based on the ultimate decider: how much money do we have? Upgraded Mig35s can become the test bed of all desi avionics packages that will go the AMCA.

I believe that is their end game - ORCA/TEDBF. In the short term, additional Mk1As could be on the cards. If that happens, that would be a huge lungi dance moment for me. The 12 additional Su-30MKIs are almost a done deal, the 21 MiG-29s are a bit further off (but looks like will happen). The 83 Mk1As will be a big shot in the arm for the IAF.

2 (+ 2?) Rafale units, 2.5 upgraded M2K units, 4 Mk1A units, 2 Mk1 (to be upgraded to Mk1A standard) units, 3 (+1?) upgraded MiG-29 units, 4 Jaguar Darin III units and 13 Su-30MKI (to be upgraded to SS standard) units will make the IAF a potent force in the 2020s. A few more units of Mk1As will provide an additional number boost.

I believe the IAF wants 36 additional Rafales versus the MiG-35. It makes sense from the investments made at Hasimara and Ambala. At this stage, that is the best option for the IAF. Hopefully that will end the MMRCA tamasha once in for all. I believe the NASAMS and MH-60R purchase could be to soften the blow for a possible cancellation of the contest. Regardless of whatever happens, a decision on MMRCA 2.0 will be made only post May 2020 (when the first batch of Rafale aircraft arrive at Ambala).

On a totally unrelated note, sent you email. Thank You.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Rakesh » 18 Feb 2020 22:45

LakshmanPST wrote:So to conclude, I believe MMRCA won't get cancelled unless IAF wants to remain at 33 squadrons for the next 15 years and unless it is confident about MWF being ready on time...
Let's hope for the best...

Numbers are very necessary, but equally important is capability.

Whether the IAF likes it or not, MMRCA will not boost the numbers in the time frame required. Too many variables at play.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby ArjunPandit » 18 Feb 2020 22:54

Rakesh wrote:I believe that is their end game - ORCA/TEDBF. In the short term, additional Mk1As could be on the cards. If that happens, that would be a huge lungi dance moment for me.

would you then fulfill your old promise???

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Rakesh » 18 Feb 2020 22:57

No Akula II in IN service

Cannot fulfill my offset obligations :)

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby ArjunPandit » 18 Feb 2020 23:06

Rakesh wrote:No Akula II in IN service

Cannot fulfill my offset obligations :)

did you read out mutual funds are subject to market risk, please read offer document...at that time???

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Rakesh » 19 Feb 2020 01:21

Advantage Rafale? Foreign firms want clarity from IAF on ‘staggered’ purchase of fighters
https://theprint.in/defence/advantage-r ... rs/367303/
18 Feb 2020

The firms in contention told ThePrint that they are “confused” by the CDS’ comments. “This is really confusing. If the CDS says there will be staggered purchase, then what happens to the Request for Proposal (RFP) for 110 fighters that we have been waiting for? Will there be any RFP?” a senior official of a foreign firm in the race for the IAF contract told ThePrint.

Another official of a different firm questioned what happens to the Make in India initiative. “There will be no Make in India possible for a limited number of fighters,” the second official said underlining that a large order would help compensate for the hard work and the investment that one will have to put in for Make in India.

A representative of a third Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) said that there needs to be clarity on what exactly India is looking at so that the companies can offer that as per the demand. “It makes no sense to come out with an RFP for 110 or 114 fighters when the inside thinking is that the purchase needs to be staggered,” the representative said.

All the company officials that ThePrint spoke to said that they will seek clarifications from the IAF.

Music to my ears!!!! Finally, a breakthrough with the Mk1A and Mk2. Lungi Dance Time? :)

There is a thinking in the government that 36 more Rafale along with the 83 LCA IA and Mark II versions equipped with modern and long-range missiles and systems will help in shoring up the IAF’s strength. Incidentally, Gen Rawat had touched upon Rafale during his interaction with journalists Monday. “Why do you think only 36 Rafales were bought,” Gen Rawat had said explaining why according to him it makes sense to buy in a staggered manner as it would reduce the cost and also staggered servicing.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Vips » 19 Feb 2020 01:34

Philip wrote:CM,and others.My prophetic views have come true.BRF ahead of the curve. I said that desi pressure to buy more LCAs might derail the MMRCA 2.0 appears to be taking off. Mainstream media, TOI,Hindu,Deccan Chronicle,etc.


It was not pressure which has forced the government's stand, rather it is our limited budget that has done what required to be done, otherwise our capability to shoot ourselves in the foot is present and will indeed remain forever.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Kartik » 19 Feb 2020 01:38

Bart S wrote:Continuing on with 36 Rafales is the best decision (hopefully would lead to cancellation of unnecessary competitions) but HAL making them is a bad idea - this does not benefit the nation in any way - it just keeps the HAL unions and bureaucrats happy. Better to buy them outright from France and work out some other quid pro pro.

It most likely won't be an assembly line as was intended with MRCA 1.0. Dassault would only set up an Indian assembly line if the numbers justified it from their point of view, and the number in their mind was close to 100 units. These local assembly lines always work the same way- first 2-3 dozen built from SKD kits supplied by OEM, next 2-3 dozen from CKD kits, and then finally moving to building from raw materials sourced in country. Not possible with an order as small as 36.

And it doesn't make economic sense to do so either, from the GoI's point of view. It'll only add a hefty percentage onto each Rafale given the costs for setting up the assembly line and training HAL personnel. However, it will make sense to have HAL build some portion (possibly some structures, wiring harnesses, etc.) for all of those 36 if they're ordered. It'll help Dassault discharge offsets and give HAL some work.

Going forward, HAL will need to support the Rafale fleet in service, for 4 decades or more. If the Mirage-2000 template is to be followed, an overhaul shop will have to be set up and HAL will need to be able to build several spares so the IAF isn't entirely dependent on supplies from Dassault. Not sure DRAL is viable given the state of Anil Ambani's finances. Dassault probably needs HAL for that reason too.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby nam » 19 Feb 2020 01:54

Rakesh wrote:Advantage Rafale? Foreign firms want clarity from IAF on ‘staggered’ purchase of fighters
https://theprint.in/defence/advantage-r ... rs/367303/
18 Feb 2020
There is a thinking in the government that 36 more Rafale along with the 83 LCA Mk1A and Mark II versions equipped with modern and long-range missiles and systems will help in shoring up the IAF’s strength. Incidentally, Gen Rawat had touched upon Rafale during his interaction with journalists Monday. “Why do you think only 36 Rafales were bought,” Gen Rawat had said explaining why according to him it makes sense to buy in a staggered manner as it would reduce the cost and also staggered servicing.

There is no "thinking". This was always the plan. MMRCA 2.0 was kayali pulav. Created as a deal to buy in IAF's nod for LCA(with MK1A).

Until the Rafale 36 deal came in, IAF was in no mood for LCA. They were planning 200 Rafales. MK1A proposal also gave a nice little delay to LCA induction, allowing more screams about "falling sqd numbers".

GoI waited for the MK1A deal to go ahead, before breaking the "news" to IAF. 18 Su30, 21 Mig29, 36 Rafale: 4 sqd. 2 sqd of either MK1A or MWF. Done.

Since we plan to make a zoo of "western silver bullets", we shoud just buy 36 F35. The obsession about one bloody jet, has impacted our national security.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby nam » 19 Feb 2020 02:00

Indranil wrote:Frankly, they should eliminate the competition and double down on how to get ORCa/TEDBF as early as possible. Do whatever it takes

This is as important as MWF. We need a Su30 replacement, along with Mig29K replacement. We need to get ORCA/TEDBF approved right away.

The new Rafale are being sold at 180 million per jet! If we can build a TE MWF and managed to save at least 50 million per jet, we need more than 300 TE jet.

That is freaking 15B in savings!

ADA is asking for 1.5B for ORCA/TEDBF development.. it is a no brainer.
Last edited by Rakesh on 19 Feb 2020 04:07, edited 2 times in total.
Reason: Please use quotes - as indicated above - when replying to someone's post.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Nikhil T » 19 Feb 2020 02:45

Rakesh wrote:Advantage Rafale? Foreign firms want clarity from IAF on ‘staggered’ purchase of fighters
https://theprint.in/defence/advantage-r ... rs/367303/
18 Feb 2020
Incidentally, Gen Rawat had touched upon Rafale during his interaction with journalists Monday. “Why do you think only 36 Rafales were bought,” Gen Rawat had said explaining why according to him it makes sense to buy in a staggered manner as it would reduce the cost and also staggered servicing.

I have a sinking feeling that this "staggered purchases leads to lower servicing costs" theory will also impact the impending 83 MK1A order. Hope I'm proven wrong.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Rakesh » 19 Feb 2020 04:21

Rakesh wrote:Advantage Rafale? Foreign firms want clarity from IAF on ‘staggered’ purchase of fighters
https://theprint.in/defence/advantage-r ... rs/367303/
18 Feb 2020

Twitter thread in response to the above article ---> https://twitter.com/KSingh84856557/stat ... 69478?s=20

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby astal » 19 Feb 2020 04:29

MRCA 1 was an attempt to get advanced (Western) manufacturing technology and medium volume production of a fighter aircraft in India. After an epic tamasha, it was realized that India could not afford high tech western fighters in those numbers and the competition died a slow and painful death.

When HAL demonstrated to IAF and MOD that it could manufacture Tejas in a reasonable amount of time with decent quality, the request was scrapped and replaced with an order for 36 rafale to gain access to advanced technologies most likely for Strategic Command.

MRCA 2 is an attempt to get engine technology. It is most likely going to fail as no engine manufacturer will help India design its own advanced jet engines. But MOD and IAF had to see how much information/technology would be shared. That exercise is still in progress though the writing is on the wall. The US has flatly refused to share technology and France has done so more politely.

At this point there is little benefit in persisting with MRCA 2. MWF will be available in 7 to 10 years and ORCA will take about 5 years longer. As many posters have pointed out there are three steps that make sense going forward.

1. Buy 36 more Rafale for intermediate squadron strength boost and insurance against delays in indigenous fighters. (If we can afford them)
2. Quickly invest a reasonable amount of money to design and develop MWF and ORCA.
3. Invest whatever is needed to design and manufacture of an indigenous 90 KN to 110 KN engine. Buy, beg, borrow, steal or spend billions on R&D. It would make sense to run this under the special projects division, overseen by PMO like the ATV program.

End the second MRCA tamasha.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Rakesh » 20 Feb 2020 01:53

^^^^ Well said astal. +1 to you!

Posting only the relevant parts of the article below. Rest has been posted earlier.

Cybaru ---> Perfect is the Enemy of Good Enough :) Well said! Read below.

India will purchase 110 new fighter jets in staggered manner, says CDS Gen Bipin Rawat
https://theprint.in/defence/india-will- ... at/366798/
17 Feb 2020

Make In India push

CDS Gen Rawat said that it is important for defence services to accept an indigenous product over a foreign-made one even if it meets only 70-80 per cent of the required parameters as contracts bind the forces for years. “It is important to hand-hold the domestic industry. Upgrades can come like Mark 1, 2 or 3,” he said. The Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) have already begin work on Tejas Mark II. The CDS explained that by placing large orders with foreign companies, forces can’t switch to the domestic industry that may be capable of making the same technology a few years after a contract is finalised.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby ramana » 20 Feb 2020 02:48

Gen Rawat is talking like a regular BRF member. Every jingo desire, expressed here over last 20 years, is being implemented.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Cybaru » 20 Feb 2020 03:31

Yaaay!! Glad we are believing in ourselves and giving us a chance...

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby nachiket » 20 Feb 2020 05:59

Indranil wrote:Frankly, they should eliminate the competition and double down nm on how to get ORCa/TEDBF as early as possible. Do whatever it takes.

If not eliminate the single engines too. That role can be taken care of by Tejas derivatives. That will leave the true medium weights. F-18, Mig35, EF and Rafale. EF is at the most disadvantage. F18 may have a chance due to the navy requirement. The race truly should be between the Mig35 and the Rafale. The ultimate decision should be decided based on the ultimate decider: how much money do we have? Upgraded Mig35s can become the test bed of all desi avionics packages that will go the AMCA.

No there should be no "race" at all. We already had one a decade ago with almost all the same contenders as now and the Rafale won. We already bought 36 of them. So if we can't afford 114 more, then buy whatever we can afford and tell the AF to make do with them. Doesn't take a genius to figure this out but everyone at the MoD seems to have collectively taken leave of their senses.

Indian defence procurement has always been frustratingly stupid. But this is taking things to an absurd level now.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby srin » 20 Feb 2020 07:24

Kartik wrote:It most likely won't be an assembly line as was intended with MRCA 1.0. Dassault would only set up an Indian assembly line if the numbers justified it from their point of view, and the number in their mind was close to 100 units. These local assembly lines always work the same way- first 2-3 dozen built from SKD kits supplied by OEM, next 2-3 dozen from CKD kits, and then finally moving to building from raw materials sourced in country. Not possible with an order as small as 36.

And it doesn't make economic sense to do so either, from the GoI's point of view. It'll only add a hefty percentage onto each Rafale given the costs for setting up the assembly line and training HAL personnel. However, it will make sense to have HAL build some portion (possibly some structures, wiring harnesses, etc.) for all of those 36 if they're ordered. It'll help Dassault discharge offsets and give HAL some work.

Going forward, HAL will need to support the Rafale fleet in service, for 4 decades or more. If the Mirage-2000 template is to be followed, an overhaul shop will have to be set up and HAL will need to be able to build several spares so the IAF isn't entirely dependent on supplies from Dassault. Not sure DRAL is viable given the state of Anil Ambani's finances. Dassault probably needs HAL for that reason too.


While the tie-up with HAL is mainly political - to mitigate the political storm of Rafale purchase 1.0, I agree that assembly line won't happen for such small orders and doesn't make sense too.

As far as the other smaller works go, I wouldn't mind if they are given to any competent defence SME - VEM, Alpha, Astra Microwave etc. I'd negotiate for more subcomponent offsets. The narrow objective would be have spares made locally. The broader objective is to increase their work share & expertise and hopefully, to make them part of global Rafale supply chain. And contribute back to improving our Rafale in a distant future.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Cain Marko » 20 Feb 2020 10:54

nachiket wrote:
Indranil wrote:Frankly, they should eliminate the competition and double down nm on how to get ORCa/TEDBF as early as possible. Do whatever it takes.

If not eliminate the single engines too. That role can be taken care of by Tejas derivatives. That will leave the true medium weights. F-18, Mig35, EF and Rafale. EF is at the most disadvantage. F18 may have a chance due to the navy requirement. The race truly should be between the Mig35 and the Rafale. The ultimate decision should be decided based on the ultimate decider: how much money do we have? Upgraded Mig35s can become the test bed of all desi avionics packages that will go the AMCA.

No there should be no "race" at all. We already had one a decade ago with almost all the same contenders as now and the Rafale won. We already bought 36 of them. So if we can't afford 114 more, then buy whatever we can afford and tell the AF to make do with them.

Mig 35? :D

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Barath » 22 Feb 2020 11:32

HX Challenge pt. 5: Bigger, Better, Stronger
https://corporalfrisk.com/2020/02/21/hx ... -stronger/

From Finland's HX competition, which features all the western aircraft that mmrca2.0 might feature (and also the F35, but not the F15) comes this

US government requirements include a requirement for new signals to be processed at a US facility before being inserted into an updated version of the data set. The solution is to embed Finnish personnel at a suitable US facility
Once Finnish (or allied) assets would identify a new signature the data would be supplied to these Finns who would process it, before it would be sent back to Finland. The whole process would result in a turnaround time of less than 24 hours from collecting the raw data until having the updated mission data in the aircraft.

Seems relevant to us aircraft including a potential F15, F16 or F18 in mmrca 2.0

Anyone have specific info on the regulation or context and applicability to India ?

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Philip » 22 Feb 2020 16:00

On costs alone hhe MIG-35 would romp home. It's less than $50M,we could even get it for around $40M if we press hard. It comes with all the bells and whistles like AESA,etc. that figure on western aircraft.Superb aerodynamics rith TVC thrown in too.A med. sized MKI. No western baby in thf ring would comf inunder $70M. When our Rafales enter service the IAF should conduct mano-a-mano duels with other IAF birds in service,esp. the 29 UPG and SS MKI when that upgrade arrives.According to somd sources,a second tranchf of Raffys would cost us around $6B,down from arojnd $8 B which was the package cost for the first 36. Even at $6B, unit costs would be around $150M ,v.high,even higher than an F-35 (around $125M) and 3 to 4 times as much as a MIG-35. Since these 110 aircraft are basically replacing retiring MIG-21s and 27s, with the best Paki bird still their F-16s, the 35 being a vastly improved Fulcrum should be a better bird than the Falcon since its vanilla 29 was better in combat than F-16s as the Germans and NATO found out after the CW. What BVR AAMs it will carry is the Q. Hopefully an ASTRA-ER that bests any PAF AMRAAM or Chin clone.

However,given the CDS' latest statements, and if HAL gets its act together and opens up another LCA line, the LCA avatars may well have the last laugh.

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Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby brar_w » 23 Feb 2020 18:22

Philip wrote:On costs alone hhe MIG-35 would romp home. It's less than $50M,we could even get it for around $40M if we press hard. It comes with all the bells and whistles like AESA,etc


I may have asked you this before, but could you provide some details on how many AESA equipped MiG-35's are currently in service.


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