MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

The Military Issues & History Forum is a venue to discuss issues relating to the military aspects of the Indian Armed Forces, whether the past, present or future. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
LakshmanPST
BRFite
Posts: 354
Joined: 05 Apr 2019 18:23

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby LakshmanPST » 02 Feb 2021 20:23

Philip wrote:But we still have around 5 to 6 sqds. of legacy MIGs of various types to replace.This can best be done through extra nos. of types in service,MKIs,MIG-29s,Rafales,etc.


I don't think IAF operates any other legacy MIGs excwpt Bisons...

Another news report said that the TE LCA Mk-2 would fly by 2023,series production starting by 2026. Since most of the systems,etc. would be similar to the Mk-1A, no LSP nos. would happen,straight tp series production. This would take over from 1A production. If these plans take-off on schedule and with no great cost escalation, then MMRCA 2.0 can be dispensed with.


I often see this "TE LCA Mk2" in your posts...
The letters TE are often used for Twin Engine on this forum... But LCA Mk2 is Single Engine... Or did you mean something else by TE...???

AkshaySG
BRFite
Posts: 120
Joined: 30 Jul 2020 08:51

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby AkshaySG » 03 Feb 2021 03:03

Philip wrote: But we still have around 5 to 6 sqds. of legacy MIGs of various types to replace.This can best be done through extra nos. of types in service,MKIs,MIG-29s,Rafales,etc.


What legacy Migs ? ..We only have the Bison left and nothing else , The most realistic plan seems to be

Light : ( Mig 21 Bis -> Tejas )

Medium : ( Mig 29, Mirage2000 ,Jaguars -> MWF and Rafale )

Heavy/Air Superiority : (Su-30 -> upgraded Su-30 , AMCA,)

As long as the the Tejas and MWF program stay on schedule there really is no need a bloated money grabbing MRFA , Just get 2 more squadrons of Rafale and be done with it

srai
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4819
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby srai » 03 Feb 2021 06:22

AkshaySG wrote:
Philip wrote: But we still have around 5 to 6 sqds. of legacy MIGs of various types to replace.This can best be done through extra nos. of types in service,MKIs,MIG-29s,Rafales,etc.


What legacy Migs ? ..We only have the Bison left and nothing else , The most realistic plan seems to be

Light : ( Mig 21 Bis -> Tejas )

Medium : ( Mig 29, Mirage2000 ,Jaguars -> MWF and Rafale )

Heavy/Air Superiority : (Su-30 -> upgraded Su-30 , AMCA,)

As long as the the Tejas and MWF program stay on schedule there really is no need a bloated money grabbing MRFA , Just get 2 more squadrons of Rafale and be done with it

AMCA would be in the medium category.

Primary growth will be in the Medium category (23 squadrons out of 42). The remaining are 6 Light and 13 Heavy squadrons.

23 Medium squadrons made up of something like this by 2040-45:
  • 2-4 x Rafale
  • 7-9 x MWF
  • 12 x AMCA Mk.1/2

Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 10635
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Rakesh » 03 Feb 2021 06:42

FMS route unmatched procurement mode for India to acquire F-15EX fighter jet, says US
https://www.livemint.com/news/india/fms ... 09193.html
02 Feb 2021

“FMS provides an opportunity to procure the most advanced fighting capabilities in the world and technologies with the level of transparency that is really unmatched by any other procurement path. We look forward to the formal government to government request from the government of India so that we can start the conversation about what the US fighters have to offer India as they look to choose their next fighter aircraft," Seybolt said.

Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 10635
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Rakesh » 03 Feb 2021 06:55

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 68768?s=20 ---> IAF needs an increase of at least 12-15% in it's capital budget to cater for an order of 36 additional Rafales.

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 07456?s=20 ---> And this increase too will have to be sustained for several years with at least 10% rise annually.

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 79744?s=20 ---> Almost 23% increase in IAF's capital expenditure in today's budget compared to last year's budget announcement.

srai
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4819
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby srai » 03 Feb 2021 17:21

^^^
That’s for $8-9 billion dollar 36 Rafale deal. Not hard to imagine what 114 aircraft would require an increase of!

Besides, 83 LCA Mk.1/As cost around $6 billion. Payments need to be budgeted for it too now that the contract has been signed.

The capital budget fully committed for the next few years. Hard to see purchase capacity for 114 MRCA as well as equal numbers of MWF within this decade. Followed by AMCA next decade.

LakshmanPST
BRFite
Posts: 354
Joined: 05 Apr 2019 18:23

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby LakshmanPST » 03 Feb 2021 20:32

srai wrote:^^^
That’s for $8-9 billion dollar 36 Rafale deal. Not hard to imagine what 114 aircraft would require an increase of!

Besides, 83 LCA Mk.1/As cost around $6 billion. Payments need to be budgeted for it too now that the contract has been signed.

The capital budget fully committed for the next few years. Hard to see purchase capacity for 114 MRCA as well as equal numbers of MWF within this decade. Followed by AMCA next decade.


Not to mention the deals for C295, HTT40 and LCH...

Cain Marko
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4704
Joined: 26 Jun 2005 10:26

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Cain Marko » 04 Feb 2021 01:57

Cross posting from Tejas thread
Aditya_V wrote:So whats the plan now
3- FOC aircraft delivered till date 1 more till Mar 21.
FY 21-22 to FY 23-24, 12 Single seat FOC Mk1 Aircraft, 8 Trainers and 3 MK 1A/ MK1 Trainer Aircraft. So for 3 years HAL will deliver 7-8 Aircraft a year only?
Surely more Mk1 single seat and Trainers and can be delivered in this period, they are still very useful.
And then finally 16 Aircraft per year, the press release does not the give the split for deliveries of the 73 Mk1A and Mk1 Trainers.

So, in the next 3 years 21-24, IAF will induct:
24 rafale
20 odd Tejas
12mki
21 mig29

They will lose:
120 odd bisons
40 odd mig27

Total sqd strength:
2 x Tejas
2 x rafale
14 x mki
6 x jaguar
3 x m2000
4 x mig29
TT:. 31 sqds

Thereafter, they will see rise via Tejas mk1a and by 2028, the number will go up to 35sqds

After that Tejas mk2 will replace jags and probably m29 and m2k (250 odd fighters). Sqd strength will remain 35 till 2040.

Amca will come in around 2040 and perhaps pakfa to slowly start replacing mki.

But I just don't see how sqd strength goes beyond 35 and gets to the desired 42.

UNLESS they get the MRCA. now I'm sensing the logic behind it. If MRCA starts coming in at the same time as mk1a, we could see strength increase to 41-42 sqds by 2030ish (35+6)

So MRCA is coming!

srai
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4819
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby srai » 04 Feb 2021 06:21

...

So MRCA is coming!



:D

As people like to point out when non-payments occur, it is the GoI that pays the bills. Armed services can aspire/project for things but it is the GoI that needs to allocate the funds over multi-year for the acquisition.

Hard to see how funds will be available in the current state of the economy to fund 25+ billion dollars for 114 MRCA-2. How will domestic MWF be funded? Along with massive MLU planned for the Su-30MKI fleet? There’s a whole laundry list of acquisitions and upgrades from all services too.

V_Raman
BRFite
Posts: 927
Joined: 04 Sep 2008 22:25

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby V_Raman » 04 Feb 2021 06:58

if we get TOT for F414 class engine - then it becomes very juicy. But why would we need F15EX if we can buy the rafale for lower price and higher numbers? or is this the bakshish demanded by USA?

Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 10635
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Rakesh » 04 Feb 2021 07:03

There is money for either MRFA or MWF. Money does not exist for both programs.

Same is true for the Navy's phoren carrier borne aircraft program. From 57 aircraft, it got drawn down to 36 and then 34. And now the Navy decided to put their hat in with the IAF's 114 MRFA program. Their is money either for TEDBF or phoren carrier borne aircraft.

And $25+ billion is a ridiculous sum of money to spend on a *foreign* 4+ generation fighter, in the second decade of the 21st century and will see service till at least the 2060s. Whatever the geopolitics is, it is still too much money. With MWF it makes sense, because it is local. So the spin offs and money invested stay in India.

Think outside the box and look beyond the mythical 42.

Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 10635
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Rakesh » 04 Feb 2021 07:03

V_Raman wrote:if we get TOT for F414 class engine - then it becomes very juicy. But why would we need F15EX if we can buy the rafale for lower price and higher numbers? or is this the bakshish demanded by USA?

You will not get TOT for F414 engine. Not going to happen.

That was a tall yarn spun by a certain BRF member, who predicted that 200 F-16s and 100 F-18s are coming for the IAF. As per him, the F-16 purchase was down payment for engine tech from GE. This was during the Single Engine fighter contest.

Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 10635
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Rakesh » 04 Feb 2021 08:27

Rakesh wrote:Think outside the box and look beyond the mythical 42.

Just one solution - among many - for the future ---> viewtopic.php?f=3&t=2906&p=2483035#p2483035

Paths exist to *Capability of 42*, without actually hitting that physical number. But those paths lie in local programs and not phoren.

Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21231
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Philip » 04 Feb 2021 11:23

2 sqds. of Raffys would be at least another $7B for just 36 birds.For that cost you could get 150+ MIG-35s, 150 Tejas, or 100 Gripens, or another 100 MKIs. Cost and performance will determine the winner. The IAF need numbers now to meet the Sino- Pak JV. Famous saying:
" There's a quality about quantity."

With almost all IAF aircraft in the future to carry the same BVR AAM,Astra-ER, and similar stand-off missiles including BMos- NG,
there is little need to buy expensive " sports cars when bomb trucks will do" ( Adm.Greenert, ex-USN CNO). With the IAF also talking about " drone swarms" unleashed by transports,a loyal wingman UCAV mock-up unveiled at the air show, there are equally effective " cost-effective alternatives around.

LakshmanPST
BRFite
Posts: 354
Joined: 05 Apr 2019 18:23

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby LakshmanPST » 04 Feb 2021 14:34

Cain Marko wrote:So, in the next 3 years 21-24, IAF will induct:
24 rafale
20 odd Tejas
12mki
21 mig29

They will lose:
120 odd bisons
40 odd mig27

Total sqd strength:
2 x Tejas
2 x rafale
14 x mki
6 x jaguar
3 x m2000
4 x mig29
TT:. 31 sqds

Thereafter, they will see rise via Tejas mk1a and by 2028, the number will go up to 35sqds


3 sqdns of Jaguars will also retire by 2028...
Basically, between 2020 and 2028 we have 9 squadrons out and 9 squadrons in....
Total squadron strength will remain 31 until Tejas Mk2 starts coming in numbers...

Yes, we need 6 Sqdns of any fighter type to reach 42 sqdn figure by 2040... It can be 6 Sqdn Rafale or 6 Sqdn MMRCA or 2 Sqdn Rafale+4 Sqdn ORCA (I personally prefer the 3rd option)...

I feel CATS Warrior etc. will be coming in numbers by the time of Su30 replacement only...

Aditya_V
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12619
Joined: 05 Apr 2006 16:25

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Aditya_V » 04 Feb 2021 14:55

Eventually, 18 more Rafales ordered in 2022 and 18 more 2025 will be ordered, this is how IAF is going play it with orders for MWF/ Tejas II sometime in 2024-25. With deliveries starting in 2029.

The last Bison's were Overhauled in Late 2020, I think the last Bison squadron will get phased out around 2030, the 3 Jaguars also in 2025-2029.

Those depending on foreign commissions will keep pushing for higher imports, but I think it be a few Mig 29;s and few more SU-30 MKI.

I think IAF will order 18+18 Rafales and after 21 Mig 29's will order another 18 attrition replacements, similarly there 12 Su 30 Mki and another 12 sometime in future say 2023. IAF will thus end up with 36+18+24 more orders of fighters keep numbers up till the MWF comes in numbers.

Going for a completely new type of 4 generation fighter with completely new training requirements, equipment infrastructure, A2A weapons, A2g weapons, arriving sometime from 2026-2035 for F16, F15, Eurofighter, Gripen and all just does not seem to make sense.

With F-35 fleets stabilizing world wide, I suspect if India US relations continue to improve we might be able to order 2 squadrons around 2025 with deliveries from 2030.

The S-400 is just an excuse, Turkey has been thumbing thier noses at the US for some unknown reason.

The MRCA talk is fail safe mode from the IAF or rather a wish list, the process is easier than handholding Indian industry till they become world class.

Remember the MMRCA saga in early 2000's IAF wanting 126 more M-2000 which then got converted to MMRCA. at that time the SU-30 MKI order was 50 aircraft, by that time MMRCA competition started the IAF SU30MKI order had gone up to 190.

Since then IAF has ordered

SU 30MKI - 80 +another 12 attrition replacements
LCA Tejas - ordered 20 IOC, 20 FOC and now 83 Tejas MK1A
Rafale -36 aircraft
Mig29- close to ordering 21 more aircraft
Jaguar fleet - 3 squadrons are being upgraded.

Given the amount of water that has flowed under the bridge I think various people have been saying things in public but things have been moving in a different direction.

Cain Marko
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4704
Joined: 26 Jun 2005 10:26

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Cain Marko » 05 Feb 2021 13:12

Frankly, I suspect they'll push HARD for the MRCA esp. considering the looming Chinese threat. GOI will probly try to score some crucial geopolitical points with this...

Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 10635
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Rakesh » 05 Feb 2021 20:58

The IAF will indeed push hard for MMRCA, knowing fully well that 114 birds will not come. As the saying goes, "Shoot for the moon. Even if you miss, you'll land among the stars." The just released defence budget has now given them that room. Tejas Mk1A has been ordered. The 21 MiG-29s and 12 Su-30MKIs are under negotiation with Russia right now. So the other fighter acquisitions have been cleared and only MMRCA is left.

And the IAF is pushing HARD for the Rafale. Ask for 114 Rafales, but if they get 36 - 54 birds...the IAF will take it. At that point, MMRCA will come to a crashing halt. The IAF will not invest its precious CAPEX in yet another 4th generation fighter. It does not make sense, financially or technically. And the navy hopping on to the program, has made the IAF even more glad...despite their opposition to aircraft carriers. It bolsters the IAF's Lets-Get-More-Rafales-Only argument. The only bulwark against additional Rafales is the F-18E/F Super Hornet Block III. None of the others will qualify, despite their technical prowess i.e. the F-15EX.

And the way Indian procurement runs, MMRCA will eventually get taken over by local programs that are on the cusp of flight...especially the Tejas Mk2. I do see another 1 - 2 more squadrons of the Mk1A variant as well. The other possibility lies in MMRCA morphing into a fifth generation fighter acquisition. Air Chief Marshal Bhaduria Sir has already stated that AMCA is being undertaken under a public-private partnership. The heart of that beast (the turbofan) has already gone down that route.

AkshaySG
BRFite
Posts: 120
Joined: 30 Jul 2020 08:51

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby AkshaySG » 05 Feb 2021 23:55

Cain Marko wrote:Frankly, I suspect they'll push HARD for the MRCA esp. considering the looming Chinese threat. GOI will probly try to score some crucial geopolitical points with this...



IAF knows if they push for 114 ,GOI will eventually relent and order something like 36 ... However if they only push for 36 they may end up with nothing . The facts that both IAF,MOD and everyone else knows is that we don't have the budget for concurrently moving forward with both 114 birds and MWF,AMCA development ,even more so if we order things like C295,LCH,AWACS in significant quantities

So while the push for more birds and more squadrons will be there (and why shouldn't it ? ..the more the merrier ) the reality is that sooner rather than later they'll have to make a call and say which one they want to fund .

Same with Navy who would have to choose between either going for the 34 CBRF or get some attrition replacements for 29k and eek them out until the TEDBF is ready .

As far as scoring geopolitical points goes then don't forget it works the other way round too ..If the current timeline holds and we're looking for a contract somewhere around 2023-24 I don't think they're gonna risk spending 15+ Billion $ in an election year especially not after the Raffy saga

Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 10635
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Rakesh » 06 Feb 2021 22:44

https://twitter.com/LMIndiaNews/status/ ... 79393?s=20 ---> It was our privilege to host Air Chief Marshal Rakesh Kumar Singh Bhadauria, PVSM, AVSM, VM, ADC, at AeroIndia2021 and brief him about our unique F-21 offering for the Indian Air Force, with unmatched industrial capabilities #ForIndiaFromIndia.

Image

Image

Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 10635
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Rakesh » 06 Feb 2021 22:44

X-Post from the IAF: News & Discussion Thread.

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 04288?s=20 ---> IAF Chief meets Brigadier General Thierry Carlier, Director for International Relations of French Defence Procurement Agency (DGA). Brigadier General Carlier delivers arms export licences on behalf of the French Prime Minister.

Shekhar Singh
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 33
Joined: 16 Sep 2018 14:55

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Shekhar Singh » 12 Feb 2021 23:08

If we shortlist mig 35 with India specific enhancements and integrate our stuffs like Uttam AESA, and other equipments developed for MWF and indigenous weapons like Astra mk1, astra mk2, Rudram series, Saw etc. then it will come very cheap and the money saved can be used to buy 36 more Rafales and more MWFs.

Bart S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2527
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 00:03

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Bart S » 13 Feb 2021 04:47

^
If we shortlist LCA-MK1A with India specific enhancements and integrate our stuffs like Uttam AESA, and other equipments developed for MWF and indigenous weapons like Astra mk1, astra mk2, Rudram series, Saw etc. then it will come very cheap and the money saved can be used to buy 36 more Rafales and more MWFs.

AkshaySG
BRFite
Posts: 120
Joined: 30 Jul 2020 08:51

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby AkshaySG » 13 Feb 2021 07:55

Shekhar Singh wrote:If we shortlist mig 35 with India specific enhancements and integrate our stuffs like Uttam AESA, and other equipments developed for MWF and indigenous weapons like Astra mk1, astra mk2, Rudram series, Saw etc. then it will come very cheap and the money saved can be used to buy 36 more Rafales and more MWFs.



If we shortlist Migs they'll be very cheap so we'll still have money left over to buy 36 more Rafales and more MWFs ??

I don't know what finances you're looking at to but IAF gonna struggle to budget for the extra Rafales just by themselves especially with the other big deals like C295,Tejas,LCH and developments like MWF,AWACS etc , No chance they can buy 114 phoren fighters without making huge cuts elsewhere


Look I know its fun to explore the different combinations and permutations a program like MMRCA or MRCA offers but we've gotta be realistic here , Nobody is gonna spend 10 Billion buying Mig 35's to induct them by time its ~2030

Manish_P
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2526
Joined: 25 Mar 2010 17:34

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Manish_P » 13 Feb 2021 12:37

MiGs are relatively cheaper only at the acquisition time. Within a few years their maintenance and spares overtakes the western counterparts.

In a recent interview Retd. AM, Anil Chopra mentioned how within a mere 5 years the costs of the MiG 29s surpassed that of the Mirage 2000.

nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8207
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby nachiket » 13 Feb 2021 14:17

Rakesh wrote:FMS route unmatched procurement mode for India to acquire F-15EX fighter jet, says US
https://www.livemint.com/news/india/fms ... 09193.html
02 Feb 2021

“FMS provides an opportunity to procure the most advanced fighting capabilities in the world and technologies with the level of transparency that is really unmatched by any other procurement path. We look forward to the formal government to government request from the government of India so that we can start the conversation about what the US fighters have to offer India as they look to choose their next fighter aircraft," Seybolt said.

I am disconcerted that this push for the F-15EX has not died a swift death. The only worse decision we can make than buying the F-16/21 is buying the F-15 EX. It will be extremely expensive to buy (adding up base price plus maintenance and support infra, training, spares, weapons etc.). Meanwhile all those things which we built up for the Rafale fleet will be severely underutilized by restricting total numbers to 36. None of our existing weapons will work with the F-15's and we will have to buy an all new arsenal for them. Plus their operational costs aren't going to be too affordable either. It is a very good way to completely mess up the IAF's CAPEX for a long time and screw up future acquisitions of the MWF, AMCA etc because of financial difficulties.

We would be much better served by investing even a fraction of that money in thoroughly upgrading our already large MKI fleet along with buying extra spares for them to further improve their availability rate.

srai
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4819
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby srai » 13 Feb 2021 14:29

^^^
Invest in “Super Sukhoi” upgrade instead. For a fleet of 272 units, the GoI/IAF will be looking at a MLU total cost of around $10 billion (@ $35 million/unit).

Aditya_V
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12619
Joined: 05 Apr 2006 16:25

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Aditya_V » 14 Feb 2021 11:03

9 Crashes make it 263 aircraft- that upgrade at 25 a year will cost USD 30 nillion- $ 750 nillion a year

srai
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4819
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby srai » 14 Feb 2021 15:11

^^^
Final count will be 275 (with 12 new additions as part of final attrition replacement order under negotiation).

272 - 9 + 12

LakshmanPST
BRFite
Posts: 354
Joined: 05 Apr 2019 18:23

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby LakshmanPST » 14 Feb 2021 16:03

srai wrote:^^^
Final count will be 275 (with 12 new additions as part of final attrition replacement order under negotiation).

272 - 9 + 12


I thought there was attrition of total 11 jets, not 9.
IAF is buying 12, which will make the total 273.

But I remember reading somewhere that the 12th jet is to use it as a test bed, not for squadrons...

Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21231
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Philip » 14 Feb 2021 19:03

Huge US pressure,sanctions warnings all pressure tactics to buy more aging US aircraft. The F-15 is a 50 yr. old basic design,which got trounced by our MKIs and Bisons during the first Indo-US air exercises.What's the point in buying an aging beauty in the age of 5th.- gen. stealth fighters.

SS upgrades with BMos,ASM and AAM is the way to go. Major combat capability increase for 25 to 30% of thf cost of a new MKI as no new engines are contemplated. In any case the F-15 XYZ whatever CANNOT carry the BMos or any equivs, nor will the Europeans allow the Meteor on another rival.More Rafales if the price comes down far more sensible than the F-15.

Aditya_V
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12619
Joined: 05 Apr 2006 16:25

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Aditya_V » 15 Feb 2021 07:53

LakshmanPST wrote:
srai wrote:^^^
Final count will be 275 (with 12 new additions as part of final attrition replacement order under negotiation).

272 - 9 + 12


I thought there was attrition of total 11 jets, not 9.
IAF is buying 12, which will make the total 273.

But I remember reading somewhere that the 12th jet is to use it as a test bed, not for squadrons...


Till date 9MKI s have been lost in crashes.

LakshmanPST
BRFite
Posts: 354
Joined: 05 Apr 2019 18:23

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby LakshmanPST » 15 Feb 2021 09:21

Aditya_V wrote:
LakshmanPST wrote:
I thought there was attrition of total 11 jets, not 9.
IAF is buying 12, which will make the total 273.

But I remember reading somewhere that the 12th jet is to use it as a test bed, not for squadrons...


Till date 9MKI s have been lost in crashes.


I remember reading in this forum itself that there are 11 crashes till date. Wikipedia page itself lists 10 crashes.

Aditya_V
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12619
Joined: 05 Apr 2006 16:25

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Aditya_V » 16 Feb 2021 14:31

9 from the IAF and 1 when it is still with HAL- I think HAL has replaced this aircraft.

Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 10635
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Rakesh » 16 Feb 2021 22:30

Will They or Won't They? US Leaves Issue of Sanctions on India Under CAATSA Open-Ended
https://thewire.in/security-security/in ... ent-caatsa
12 Feb 2021

Senior Indian military officers believe that the CAATSA’s spectre would ‘abate’ or, at least be shelved – for possible invocation later – provided India, for starters, opts for one of three US-origin fighters to meet the IAFs long-deferred requirement for 114 medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) for an estimated $18-20 billion.

The US fighters, amongst seven vying for the IAFs tender, include Lockheed Martin’s F-21 – a warmed up or re-branded F-16 ‘Fighting Falcon’ dating back to the early 1970’s – and Boeing’s two platforms: the F-15EX Advanced Eagle fighter aircraft and the F/A 18 Block III Super Hornet. If shortlisted, the latter, twin-engine multi-role platform would also meet the Indian Navy’s requirement for 57 Multi-Role Carrier Borne Fighters (MRCBFs) in fly-away condition.

There is recent precedence of the MoD coupling Indian Air Force (IAF) and Indian Navy (IN) fighter requirements, which could well be initiated once again. Between 2004 and 2010 the IN had acquired 45 MiG-29K/KUB fighters for $ 2.29 billion for its carriers INS Vikramaditya and INS Vikrant, principally because of their ‘commonality’ with the IAFs 60-odd MiG-29 inducted into service from 1985, and currently undergoing an upgrade. “It makes eminent financial and logistical sense for the IN to link its MRCBF buy to the IAF’s procurements,” said a retired three-star Indian Navy fighter pilot. Simply acquiring 57 naval fighters off the shelf, he cautioned, would be prohibitively expensive, impractical and time-consuming.

Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 10635
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Rakesh » 16 Feb 2021 22:44

Before the technical down-select of the first MMRCA contest on 27 April 2011, this is what Ashley Tellis had to say. This is before the F-16 and F-18 lost to the Rafale in MMRCA Round #1. There was certainty among Washington policy makers, that India would choose an American bird. Click on link below and read from page 19 - 23. Going by Mr Tellis' statements, it makes sense to go in for additional Rafales. Although now, he argues for the exact opposite due to CAATSA and other factors.

Dogfight!
https://carnegieendowment.org/files/dogfight.pdf

Pursuing a split buy would involve burdening a single end-user—the IAF in this case—with two different airplanes intended to undertake exactly the same roles and missions.

Civilian security managers in New Delhi should use the MMRCA buy, first and foremost, to do well by their air force; satisfying the demands of India’s foreign partners should take a back seat on this issue.

No matter which way India leans in the MMRCA contest, keeping the IAF’s interests consistently front and center will ensure that its ultimate choice will be the right one. A selection process that is transparent, speedy, and focused on the right metrics will not only strengthen the IAF’s combat capabilities, but it will also earn the respect of all the competing vendors and their national patrons. Some of them will be disappointed by India’s final choice, but those, alas, are the rules of the game.


How Can U.S.-India Relations Survive the S-400 Deal?
https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/08/2 ... -pub-77131
29 Aug 2018

Of course, New Delhi could rightly object, as it has done already, that it should not be held to account for the problems created by U.S. law and policy and therefore should be relieved of the obligation to find ways out of this dilemma. However understandable that rejoinder may be, it does not resolve the problem that India currently faces and hence will require deliberate Indian action that contributes toward a solution.

The final approach worth contemplating, therefore, is offering Trump a deal. It would probably require India to move forward on one of the several major defense acquisition programs it has discussed with the United States over the years, thus enabling New Delhi to secure the capabilities it has always wanted while giving Trump an incentive to speedily issue the waiver that India needs.

Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 10635
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Rakesh » 16 Feb 2021 22:49

And this article below (also from Ashley Tellis) is interesting. An easy issue for India to resolve. Just buy 114 F-15EX and 57 F-18SHs. Then talk of India diluting her liberal character, will be put on the back burner.

If India keeps diluting its liberal character, the West will be a less eager partner
https://theprint.in/opinion/if-india-ke ... er/506160/
23 Sept 2020

Many Western powers aided India’s ascent, presuming that it would not misuse its power against its own citizens. Yet a recent wave of illiberal policies has eroded this confidence.

Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21231
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Philip » 16 Feb 2021 23:37

With psls like the US,who needs enemies? Old saying.The constant pinpricks about human rights,farmers,lynchings,NGO / activist " persecution",etc.,etc., apart from dire warnings about Ru weaponry deals,does nothing to improve Indo- US relations.They still mollycuddle Pak, looking at ways to let Pak off the hook,wanting us primarily as cannon fodder against the Chins.

m_saini
BRFite
Posts: 451
Joined: 23 May 2020 20:25

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby m_saini » 17 Feb 2021 00:52

Philip wrote:With psls like the US,who needs enemies? Old saying.The constant pinpricks about human rights,farmers,lynchings,NGO / activist " persecution",etc.,etc., apart from dire warnings about Ru weaponry deals,does nothing to improve Indo- US relations.They still mollycuddle Pak, looking at ways to let Pak off the hook,wanting us primarily as cannon fodder against the Chins.


I don't think we're friends with US, atleast not the type of friends that US wants us to be. You let them open a base in AP or Ladakh and every pinprick goes away.
Every single country that matters and which escapes such pinpricks has US mil presence or allied heavily. South Korea, Japan, Australia, France, Germany, UK, Italy, Canada, Saudis, Israel etc We have never been close to US so the pinpricks are no surprise.

Cain Marko
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4704
Joined: 26 Jun 2005 10:26

Re: MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

Postby Cain Marko » 17 Feb 2021 01:47

Rakesh wrote:Will They or Won't They? US Leaves Issue of Sanctions on India Under CAATSA Open-Ended
https://thewire.in/security-security/in ... ent-caatsa
12 Feb 2021


Hmm...there is a solution to this conundrum. Just as the US hangs the sword of CAATSA over India, India should continue to dangle the carrot of the MRCA (occasionally dipped in the honey of the the 57 Navy fighters). THe sword falls, the carrot is taken away. simple wonlee. In the mean-e-while continue with just 36 more Rafale. And load up on Tejas, TEDBF etc etc.

The important thing here is to NEVER actually buy the teens. The moment you do, the sword WILL fall.


Return to “Military Issues & History Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bart S, Google Feedfetcher, Rakesh and 57 guests