MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

[JayS]

Is there any other AF today, which is conducting such a convoluted process to select a 4.5 Gen jet when 99% of the world is prepping for inducting 5Gen platforms?
Jai Ho IAF. Jai MOD.

It keeps import lobby busy. Both inside and outside the IAF/MoD.

I think this will be thrown into dustbin all the same after a decade or so. By then LCA MK2 would have proved its metal and would be kicking asses of some of the contenders of this "competition" from outside.

[shiv]

^^In fact the opposite is true. The delays only frustrate the import lobbies. Unlike Gandy family private companies are not headed by family run marketing teams and CEOs who last forever. They have to show sales. So a few bribes given now and some quick sales is the best. PAF is a classic example - of how quick inductions come on the back of money exchanging hands. Imagine someone who represented say Boeing in India a decade ago trying to sell a fighter. That man will not have earned any money or brownies for sales concluded. In fact the Boeing man has now joined some other company as per reports in Vayu.

[shiv]

On 2-3 occasions I have met (socially) retired forces officers etc who represent some company or the other along with some retired DRDO folks. Nice people, nice company, but to put it crudely "Opinions are like a$$holes. Everybody has one". Over drinks and dinner you can interview anyone, including me and get opinions about Tejas, Arjun, Rafale, F-35, Mig 29, F/A 18 etc. Then you can construct a media article that says "Defence analyst said" or "Air force source said" etc. That is what defence reporting is all about. I saw a Hindi interview of a man labelled on the video as ex-CAS. He was definitely not an ex-CAS but he was waxing eloquent on 20 hours servicing after 1 hour flight - lifted straight from that Tejas article from Crimes of India. This man did not even look like he was making money from someone - he was just getting 15 minutes fame and the media portal millions of hits.This is the state of the media right now and our discussions revolve around this. If we had an entire forum dedicated to discussion of "Sleeping Beauty". "Snow white and the seven dabbas" or "Rapunzel" we could surely generate as much information about defence issues from those threads.

[Rakesh]

https://twitter.com/bjp4karnataka/statu ... 3320910849 ---> Why are you so allergic to facts? The subcontract to Reliance was given by Rafale and not by central govt. If BJP had ruled the country for past 6 decades, we wouldn’t have had to import fighter jets from France or Russia. Instead we would be exporting them!

the above tweet is in response to below...

https://twitter.com/inckarnataka/status ... 6838585345 ---> Bengaluru’s HAL has been making aircrafts for the Indian Air Force for 70 years. The Modi govt denied HAL the Rafale contract and awarded it to Ambani, thus depriving Karnataka’s youth of job opportunities.

[SaiK]

finally, somebody is talking sense here, imho/jmt

F-35s are not the right choice for India’s defence
https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/ ... YRjAL.html

[Ravi Karumanchiri]

finally, somebody is talking sense here, imho/jmt

F-35s are not the right choice for India’s defence
https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/ ... YRjAL.html

^^^^^^^^^
I completely and wholeheartedly agree with every single syllable in this definitive article on the prospects of India inducting the F-35.

THIS IS A FORMAL CALL FOR A DEFINITIVE VOTE (requesting mods to establish a poll and settle this matter once and for all).

Do you accept that the aforementioned article on the prospect of IAF induction of the F35 presents indisputable, terminal reasons why the IAF cannot and should not ever consider induction of the F35?

A vote 'Yes' would render F35 discussions OT for this thread.

A 'No' vote would require us to accept the noise-to-signal ratio being accordingly noisier.

imo/jmt

[darshhan]

There is easily a need for 15 number F-35 right now. But before you jump to conclusions, let me elaborate the purpose.

The F-35s procured should be divided between ADA, DRDO(chitradurga testing base), HAI etc for R&D purposes. Here you are being offered the latest iteration of stealth aircraft, you should never refuse it. There would be so much to learn both technologically and operationally from this aircraft. There will be definitely lot of aspects which can be incorporated into AMCA. Trust me China will give its right arm for even a single F-35.

Some F-35s should also be handed over to TACDE to develop counter stealth tactics. Without a stealthy aircraft, otherwise you will be forced to develop the same in a vacuum.

And if stealth actually works in wartime, then only a small number are required to punch through enemy air defence systems thereby enabling other fighters to operate with substantially less threat.

If India wants to become a superpower, it has to think strategic and not emotionally. The other caveat is that key decision-makers I.e IAF, DRDO, PMO etc have to look at the big picture while resisting working in silos.

[SaiK]

103,180,000.00 USD per Rafale puppy / Minister of State for Defence, Subhash Bhamre.

[Philip]

Been saying for aeons the same thing.Just too complex for us, but costwise as production increases makes the Raffy look like we' ve been conned! In the " payload centric" era, our MKIs, upgraded to SS std., plus cheap new MIG-35s could do the biz at half thd5 cost with LCAs replacing legacy MIG-21s en masse.

For the 5th-gen bird, the SU-57 is still the best option, which also by earlier reports , costs would be the same or even lesser than the Raffy. That remains to be seen, but a clear picture is perhaps already with the GOI since all that appears left is hard bargaining over the final prics.But then there's the interests of the R co., the least kept secret in the country.

[JayS]

There is easily a need for 15 number F-35 right now. But before you jump to conclusions, let me elaborate the purpose.

The F-35s procured should be divided between ADA, DRDO(chitradurga testing base), HAI etc for R&D purposes. Here you are being offered the latest iteration of stealth aircraft, you should never refuse it. There would be so much to learn both technologically and operationally from this aircraft. There will be definitely lot of aspects which can be incorporated into AMCA. Trust me China will give its right arm for even a single F-35.

Some F-35s should also be handed over to TACDE to develop counter stealth tactics. Without a stealthy aircraft, otherwise you will be forced to develop the same in a vacuum.

And if stealth actually works in wartime, then only a small number are required to punch through enemy air defence systems thereby enabling other fighters to operate with substantially less threat.

If India wants to become a superpower, it has to think strategic and not emotionally. The other caveat is that key decision-makers I.e IAF, DRDO, PMO etc have to look at the big picture while resisting working in silos.

15 F35 = $2B and say $2B more for "R&D" in all possible manner. If we invest that kind of money in usual development we will have world class AMCA + K10 anyway. But you know what is more stealthy than F35..? "R&D funding" from GOI. Its stealthy is both space and time dimensions.

[Rakesh]

15 F35 = $2B and say $2B more for "R&D" in all possible manner. If we invest that kind of money in usual development we will have world class AMCA + K10 anyway. But you know what is more stealthy than F35..? "R&D funding" from GOI. Its stealthy is both space and time dimensions.

That has got to be the *BEST* joke of 2018 Good one Saar!

[Rakesh]

https://twitter.com/livefist/status/973530138720854016

Priority No.1: Fighters.
Priotity No.2: S-400 SAM system.

Plainspeak from the Indian Air Force in report to Parliament today.

[abhik]

BTW given the MoD's phata abdul condition, where it doesn't even have the funds for the committed stuff, is it safe to say the contract for Tejas Mk1A will not be signed anytime soon?

[JayS]

BTW given the MoD's phata abdul condition, where it doesn't even have the funds for the committed stuff, is it safe to say the contract for Tejas Mk1A will not be signed anytime soon?

Don't worry about MK1A. Its well on its due path.

[VKumar]

Money will be available for all critical equipment. Repeatedly Arun Jaitley and Narendra Modi have said this wrt defense. I believe them.

[Rudradev]

finally, somebody is talking sense here, imho/jmt

F-35s are not the right choice for India’s defence
https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/ ... YRjAL.html

At last my n00b question about "kill switch" finds an answer.

It's not an issue of "kill switch" so much as the fact that the entire system is bloody useless unless networked with US C4I to an extent that would make even a vaguely self-respecting poodle squirm.

No thanks.

[Philip]

How come no mention of planned upgrades to MIKis to SS.BMos std.? I thought that that was already in the can.

[pravula]

India eyes Boeing's Super Hornet in latest twist to Air Force procurement: Experts skeptical about move
http://www.firstpost.com/business/india-eyes-boeings-super-hornet-in-latest-twist-to-air-force-procurement-experts-skeptical-about-move-4390931.html

[Will]

Anyone taking bets that we will still be discussing this topic in 2025

[rkhanna]

From the article

"Richard A. Bitzinger, visiting senior fellow at Singapore’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said he did not expect a resolution in even the next two to three years. “I am never surprised by what the Indians do when it comes to their procurement tenders. They are constantly changing the rules, changing their minds, and often even cancelling orders mid-way through,” he said.

“The Indians have a remarkable knack for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.”"

very confused. Is he complementing us or disparaging us?

[Cosmo_R]

Anyone notice the timeline between this

F-35s are not the right choice for India’s defence
https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/ ... YRjAL.html

and
India eyes Boeing's Super Hornet in latest twist to Air Force procurement: Experts skeptical about move
http://www.firstpost.com/business/india ... 90931.html

Boeing pointed out that they have done more for MII than anyone else

Amidst Make-in-India Gloom, Boeing’s Multi-Billion Local Push Next Week
https://www.livefistdefence.com/2018/03 ... -week.html

[Cosmo_R]

...
Richard A. Bitzinger, visiting senior fellow at Singapore’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said he did not expect a resolution in even the next two to three years. “I am never surprised by what the Indians do when it comes to their procurement tenders. They are constantly changing the rules, changing their minds, and often even cancelling orders mid-way through,” he said.

“The Indians have a remarkable knack for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.”


Published Date: Mar 15, 2018 08:59 AM | Updated Date: Mar 15, 2018 08:59 AM

I see it as confirming what we already know: we are are afraid of running out of problems.

[Mort Walker]

Shivaji,

Well put. There is just too much “news” now and much of it seems like thinking out loud by various sources which gets posted on the internet immediately.

[Rakesh]

India eyes Boeing's Super Hornet in latest twist to Air Force procurement: Experts skeptical about move
http://www.firstpost.com/business/india-eyes-boeings-super-hornet-in-latest-twist-to-air-force-procurement-experts-skeptical-about-move-4390931.html

There are so many holes in the article above, that one can take it apart with a blow torch!

The 35-year gestation period for the Tejas was icing on the cake

They made these same noises prior to 27 April 2011 and they made these same noises during the SEF competition. Let them. Fun to watch.

[Rakesh]

I see it as confirming what we already know: we are are afraid of running out of problems.

This is a problem that no one, other than India's tortoise-moving bureaucracy can solve. Americans, French, Russians, Klingons and Romulans (from Star Trek) and even the Almighty himself cannot solve this. The IAF will face a shortage crunch till well into the next decade. They *ONLY* viable solution is to upgrade current platforms and increase their serviceability (M2K, MiG-29s, Jaguars, Su-30s, etc), acquire follow on platforms (36 - 44 more Rafales) and focus on boosting Tejas production (already on path to achieving 16 per year in 2019). That is it.

Anything else, will only lead to further delays.

[Rakesh]

“The Indians have a remarkable knack for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.”"

very confused. Is he complementing us or disparaging us?

Disparaging onlee, sprinkled with a heavy dose of condescension. Psy-ops onlee I did not hear *ANY* complaints from them when the following were selected...

* P-8I Poseidon
* AH-64 Apache
* CH-47 Chinook
* C-17 Globemaster
* C-130 Super Hercules

[Rakesh]

Classic example of media dalals trying to grab attention-seeking headlines.

See the title of the article? You with me till there?

Govt tells IAF to consider Boeing's F-18 Super Hornets for $16 bn order
http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 135_1.html

Now this is at the bottom of the article ----> (Only the headline and picture of this report may have been reworked by the Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

What is the syndicated feed? The Reuters article.

There is nothing of significance that ties the title of the article to anything in the article. So now the push from media dalals (on the payroll of you know who) is to convince the Indian citizenry that the GOI needs to make the IAF look at the F-18 Super Hornet. The Indian system does not work that way, but oh well They are pandering to the GOI, when the customer is the IAF. Keep repeating the same mistake over-and-over. Never learn.

[ramana]

Ravi, If you read above posts the is the Nukkad thread for IAF. So making F35 OT for the thread, robs the nukkad people their roz ki roti.

[ramana]

From the article

"Richard A. Bitzinger, visiting senior fellow at Singapore’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said he did not expect a resolution in even the next two to three years. “I am never surprised by what the Indians do when it comes to their procurement tenders. They are constantly changing the rules, changing their minds, and often even cancelling orders mid-way through,” he said.

“The Indians have a remarkable knack for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.”"

very confused. Is he complementing us or disparaging us?

He is disparaging India for not rushing out to buy obsolete US offerings.

[Bart S]

The 35-year gestation period for the Tejas was icing on the cake

The LCA saga has been rather like this statement by Treebeard the ent from the Lord of the Rings:

But you must understand, young hobbit. It takes a long time to say anything in old Entish, and we never say anything unless it is worth taking a long time to say."

[Rakesh]

^^^^

The media dalals have already laid down the *STARTING* price of the MRCA contract ---> $16 billion. The IAF does not have funds to pay for its current acquisitions, from where they are going to pull $16 billion from? From a magician's hat?

[brar_w]

^ Now wait till someone takes that non existent $16 billion and calls for it to be spent on subs or other priorities.

[Indranil]

$16 Billion is an understated value for 114 jets in 2020. Especially, when it is a new kind with completely new weapons. With ToT and what not. To give you some perspective, we could not close 124 Rafales for 20 Billion in 2014.

[Rakesh]

Exactly! Well said Brar. The services are not in *SYNC* with the MoD Babus. What the right hand wants, the left hand willfully undermines.

But it is amazing how policy influencers place *EVERYTHING* in the Indo-US relationship on a fighter purchase (F-16 and/or F-18).

Remember this (from last Oct) folks?

Prior approval for sale of F-16 and F-18 in place: Keith Webster
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 138040.cms

Q. What if India doesn’t choose the F-16?
A. It would be a significant disappointment. Just to develop these Make in India proposals took two years of intense work, to demonstrate DTTI and move beyond MMRCA, to demonstrate this is a new relationship... It would begin fatigue in our prime industries, not only in Boeing and Lockheed.

[ramana]

India eyes Boeing's Super Hornet in latest twist to Air Force procurement: Experts skeptical about move
http://www.firstpost.com/business/india-eyes-boeings-super-hornet-in-latest-twist-to-air-force-procurement-experts-skeptical-about-move-4390931.html

There are so many holes in the article above, that one can take it apart with a blow torch!

The 35-year gestation period for the Tejas was icing on the cake


They made these same noises prior to 27 April 2011 and they made these same noises during the SEF competition. Let them. Fun to watch.

it would be very instructive to see who were the PM and Defence Ministers in those 35 year period and when did the Tejas program get funded along the way and when major milestones were achieved.

[Rakesh]

India Hasn't Decided On New Fighter Jet Deal, Say Sources On Reports
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/governm ... ts-1824391

There has been no request made by the government to the Air Force to specifically evaluate Boeing's F/A-18 Super Hornet as suggested in some reports.

Just goes to show how misleading the article from the Business Standard was...

[Rakesh]

^^^ https://twitter.com/strategic_front/sta ... 3332953088 ---> Spot on @VishnuNDTV the talk that an RFI was to be issued in 4 weeks for an a deal was nonsense. No RFI ever materialised for the SEF deal even after 18 months of promising it. There is only one way this “MMRCA 2.0” will go......

[SaiK]

http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/19 ... dia-report

U.S. Pacific Command Boss Mentions Potential Sale Of F-35 To India

[Philip]

Flashback.I have somewhere in my boxes of old mags the IT issue in the '80s celebrating the approval by the RG govt. to go ahead with the LCA.Even then it was acknowledged that developing all the high- tech components, etc. would be v.challenging.

The IAF then did their own internal assessment of the programme and gave a thumbs down shocking its own chief.They had done a v.detailed study and timeline of the ADA/ DRDO and come to their conclusions.It was after that review ( posted in BR aeons ago quoting the IAF officer who prepared it), that the IAF wisely decided to upgrade 120+ Bisons in case the LCA failed to meet its service dates.One of the wisest decisions taken.The Bison has proven itself.

When the LCA was in trouble dev-wise, nothing to do with moolah, the need for appointing a Dir.Gen. with " hire and fire" powers to fast- track the prog.was felt essential.The IAF AM, later VCOAS ,first man to fly the MIG-25, was repeatedly chosen by committee after committee to be DG, finally by the PM himself! Babudom of the MOD not wanting to lose control over the project and its funding, kept delaying the appointment.He eventually retd. and not wanting to land up in any controversy never pushed for his appt.It was he who warned APJAK that the GTRE were b'sh*tting about "Kaveri ready in 3 months", etc.APJAK believed them and made some embarrassing statements which 15 years later have never come to fruition (200 LCAs by 2013) !We also had US sanctions after P-2, so one could say that the prog. had its share of bad luck too, perhaps " started at an inauspicious hour".

However, when the IAF's wet dream of dozens of firang fighters arriving through the MMRCA deal evaporated ,it woke up and smelt the coffee served by the GOI! It realised that the LCA had made so much progress , was a desi design easier to support, and costwise was an argument that could not be ignored, that there was no alternative to it as the MIG-21 replacement.The only Q was HAL's rate of prod. which is necessitating another MRCA demand even after the ultra-expensive Rafale was bought in ltd. number.

How this is going to play out is anyone'x guess.Political developments and financial woes will in all probability see this decision taken only after the 2019 elections which may even be held later this year.Until then, the best advice one can give the IAF is to speed up LCA prod., Jaguar upgrades, and MKI/ SS production.A quick settlement of the IAF-HAL dispute over M2K upgrade costs also immediate.This way production of aircraft for the IAF will keep humming along so that numbers and capability are kept happy.More MKIs to SS BMos std. would be even better than any Rafales acquired.

[Rakesh]

India pins hopes on ‘2+2 meet’ to mend ties with US
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/ne ... 274639.ece

Soon after Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced earlier this month that India will not be purchasing the F-16 fighter jets from American aerospace giant Lockheed Martin for the time being, the US Trade Representative (USTR) filed a massive trade dispute against India specifically targeting the ‘Foreign Trade Policy 2015-2020’ at the World Trade Organization (WTO).