BRF Jirga Princeton, NJ SATURDAY APRIL 28 2018

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Rudradev
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BRF Jirga Princeton, NJ SATURDAY APRIL 28 2018

Postby Rudradev » 27 Apr 2018 04:18

Hi all,

We're having a Jirga at Princeton, NJ this Saturday (April 28). Over lunch (say 11 AM to 3 PM).

If you can/wish to attend please email me at rudradev DAWT brf ATT gmail and I will let you know the venue.

MODS please sticky this thread for the next 2 days. Thanks!

ShauryaT
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Re: BRF Jirga Princeton, NJ SATURDAY APRIL 28 2018

Postby ShauryaT » 27 Apr 2018 04:33

Me coming.

salaam
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Re: BRF Jirga Princeton, NJ SATURDAY APRIL 28 2018

Postby salaam » 27 Apr 2018 05:49

I want to come. :)

anupmisra
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Re: BRF Jirga Princeton, NJ SATURDAY APRIL 28 2018

Postby anupmisra » 27 Apr 2018 06:21

salaam wrote:I want to come. :)


Have fun guys.

krishna_krishna
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Re: BRF Jirga Princeton, NJ SATURDAY APRIL 28 2018

Postby krishna_krishna » 27 Apr 2018 09:07

Rdevji, I am available this weekend. I have sent you an email.

Rudradev
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Re: BRF Jirga Princeton, NJ SATURDAY APRIL 28 2018

Postby Rudradev » 27 Apr 2018 21:50

Salaam and Krishna_Krishna, I have emailed you.

ramana
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Re: BRF Jirga Princeton, NJ SATURDAY APRIL 28 2018

Postby ramana » 27 Apr 2018 21:57

Folks expect a good summary of the discussions.
Some suggested topics from my side:
Gagan Shakti
NaMo Wuhan visit
Korean Peninsula peace process impacts on India.

Krishna^2 How is that paper coming?
Maybe you can tell them its outline.

salaam
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Re: BRF Jirga Princeton, NJ SATURDAY APRIL 28 2018

Postby salaam » 27 Apr 2018 22:14

Rudradev wrote:Salaam and Krishna_Krishna, I have emailed you.


Thank you kind Sir. I got it. Looking forward to the discussions.

ShauryaT
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Re: BRF Jirga Princeton, NJ SATURDAY APRIL 28 2018

Postby ShauryaT » 29 Apr 2018 23:55

ramana: You would be happy to know the majority of discussions were around the topics you suggested. Some old timers (banned) were also there as BRF is in their blood. The biggest unresolved question was, who asked for the meeting Modi or Xi?

RD: Thanks for the initiative, until next time!

ramana
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Re: BRF Jirga Princeton, NJ SATURDAY APRIL 28 2018

Postby ramana » 01 May 2018 05:39

XI.

krishna_krishna
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Re: BRF Jirga Princeton, NJ SATURDAY APRIL 28 2018

Postby krishna_krishna » 02 May 2018 09:01

RamanaGaru,

My apologies have been busy with some personal emergencies in last few months (so not been able to devote any time ) but I did share some outline of the paper with the group at jirga. Although I was late at joining nevertheless good get together with other members to get fresh perspective on different things. Here is summary from my side :

1) Points discussed primarily Modi’s visit to Wuhan and although I personally disagreed with the viewpoint majority didn’t think was a good move or the timing wasn’t right. The way I see it is that Bharat is hedging it’s bet with China, with Russia - China already in a close embrace and with Korean thing more or less settled means chinkis are going to settle with massa and Massa can focus entirely on conflict with Russia. India would be only one left out so that makes sense to at least have options open.
2)The other points discussed were OBOR , this is just an extension of strings of pearl. With OBOR already reaching Nepal the group felt that this was a failure on Indian side on not able to dictate things in its immediate neighborhood (Srilanka etc. added to this list)
3) There is a big need to get PoK back (although it is late) but still getting a part or whole of it holds key to India getting geopolitical advantage and defeating many adversaries with one big move.
4) Also lack of progress (or pace of progress) with military and strategic area under Modi was discussed. But its better than congi’s
5) Regarding Korean move and visit of modi, majority saw no direct connection with the visit. However the way it was seen by others is next will be big push on Bharat to denuclearize ,
6) There was discussion about strength of desi’s in masa land and future generations of dharmics (born in masaland) marrying outside the race was seen with big civilizational concern, also how to bring desi number to higher level.
7) There was discussion on current financial health of small business in India and how after GST they are struggling (modi getting bad name), this still might not dent enough push into prospects of BJP winning in 2019.
8) Also other interesting points like banning certain things in Bharat.


Gurus/others please add others (apologies if I missed any points). Thank you again Rdev for taking the lead.

Rudradev
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Re: BRF Jirga Princeton, NJ SATURDAY APRIL 28 2018

Postby Rudradev » 03 May 2018 04:22

Few more points to add to KK's list above.

1) Consensus is that the Korean detente was a win for China, probably resulted from a China-brokered initiative, and a loss for Trump. Definitely a strategic loss for the USA, because it is almost inevitable that a unified or semi-unified Korea will lean towards China's sphere of influnece for reasons of ancient cultural proximity, economic ties, etc.

I mentioned that this may actually be a good thing because it will precipitate a pushback against the EJs who are 60% of SoKo now, but will drop to under 40% of a combined NoKo-SoKo population. Korean EJs will face additional pressure from Xi, who is known to be advancing Buddhism as a quasi-state religion of the new imperial China.

The Korean peninsula with its huge population, economic output/potential, and cultural affiliation is a FAR bigger prize for new imperial China than anything west of the Heihe-Tengchong line (dividing 94% of the population in the east from the remaining 6% in the west.) It was incumbent on Xi to solve this by seizing the initiative to broker peace before the effects of a trade war ended up potentially tarnishing China's image.

As for the statement by Moon Jae In that Trump deserves a Nobel Prize for his efforts on the Korean Peninsula, it is a pure consolation prize meant to pander to Trump's ego. Nobel prize for Trump is what USA gets, Korean peninsula is what China gets.

2) Differences of opinion over the Modi-Xi Wuhan summit, though consensus that it did not seem to be related overtly to the Korean peninsula circumstances.

Shaurya T believes that Modi asked for the summit, and has in effect humiliated India by going on bended knee before the Son of Heaven in the Middle Kingdom... exactly in line with how China sees its model of asserting supremacy over its neighbours.

Rama Y offered an interesting alternative explanation. Xi asked Modi for the summit because it is in the interests of India, China, and Russia to hedge their bets by working together in anticipation of a trade war imposed on all three by the US.

Rama Y outlined an interesting overall picture of Modi's policies to date, which I largely agree with.

First, soon after Modi was elected, Xi Jinping came to India offering something like $500B in infrastructural investments, BUT with the labour revenues and profits accruing to Chinese firms who would do the actual building. As a sideshow some PLA generals also staged an incursion at the same time... but this turned out to be an attempt by Hu Jintao-appointed generals to embarrass Xi. The main takeaway of Xi's early visit was that Modi turned down his offer, because Make In India is of paramount importance to Modi, and Xi's offer would not have advanced that goal.

Next Modi went to various capitals of the world making a pitch for MII. Notably Australia, Germany, Japan, France, asking them to invest their pension funds in India. However, it turned out that none of these was willing to make a significant move without the OK of massa.

So the third step was for Modi to visit Massa (remember the Madison Sq. Garden appearance, etc.) and make a pitch for MII that included offers to American corporations to set up campuses in Indian smart cities, where their Indian-origin employees could work and still enjoy US standards of living; also offers for GOTUS to invest 401k in India for higher rates of return than they were getting at home.

Rama Y believes that this opportunity was turned down by the US for one reason alone: FCRA. The US sees access to our economically deprived populations for its soul-harvesting missionaries and social-engineering NGOs as too great a prize. Without our caving into their demands on FCRA, the Americans were no-go. This was Modi's red line, and no agreement could be reached.

From this point forward, ALL relations of India with the US came to be understood by New Delhi as primarily transactional. "Strategic partnership" was just fluff terminology for various mouthpieces to issue. (Note: I myself noticed former voices in the US who were somewhat bullish on Modi: Alyssa Ayres, Sadanand Dhume etc. suddenly take an anti-Modi turn around 2015, and by the time demonetization happened in 2016, the American discourse was back to the same old pre-MMS India bashing.)

After that, Modi decided to do what he could domestically to raise funds. This included demonetization, and the following year, GST. Both those initiatives have now begun to bear fruit and generate capital within India itself.

China has been watching all this intently. They have also discerned a new Indian determination to protect its security interests in Doklam as well as on the Terroristan border.

Meanwhile Deep-State America has decided Modi must go if possible, and the involvement of Cambridge Analytica etc. in Indian electoral politics are reflections of that.

Trump is of no consequence really because the Indo-US relationship has already (for all practical purposes) receded to a purely transactional, item-by-item level. Many in Trump's government, including EJs like Mike Pence, of course will not tolerate India's FCRA stipulations because soul-harvesting and social engineering is their primary objective as far as India is concerned.

China sensed that Modi was on his way to economic success without concurrent dependency on the West, or obligation to America's strategic interests. They discounted most of what was being said about "Quad", "Indo-Pacific" etc. as mere rhetorical fluff... realizing that we are no likelier to sign BECA, COMCASA and so on than we are to cave in to American demands on the FCRA.

There has evolved a consensus of understanding between India, China, and Russia that we're each embroiled in containment-quagmires of the West's making. For Russia it is Ukraine and Syria. For China it is the SCS and (until recently) Korean peninsula. For us it is of course AfPak. In each one of these cases it is Massa's dominance that keeps us embroiled and incapable of resolving the respective situations in our favour.

This is the strategic situation that Xi and Modi met in Wuhan to discuss. In fact it has already been breached. The very fact that India is OK with Russia engaging Pakistan (so far) is because it is better than America engaging Pakistan. Pakistan being what it is, will always sell itself to some bidder or other. However, America has grown disillusioned with it for the time being, and China is realizing that CPEC/Gwadar wasn't quite the great investment it promised to be. Of all possible options for India, the least worst is that Russia (with whom we at least have a working model of strategic partnership) be the one to engage Pakistan.

None of this means that the Chinese are now our friends, or can be trusted. Gagan Shakti was carried out precisely in anticipation of this: to show that no lull-inducing diplomacy followed by a repeat of 1962 was possible. There also remains the matter of India's NSG membership being opposed by China, Masood Azhar being given cover by China in the UN, etc. However, on the issue of terrorism there was an about-turn by China at the FATF when they dropped support for Pakistan. We have to wait and see what the Chinese actually do after the Xi-Modi summit, on such fronts as border incursions and diplomatic opposition to India's interests.

3) Military procurement: on this subject it seemed to be a consensus opinion that India should continue procuring largely from Russia until the time that our indigenous MIC develops to the point of self-sufficiency. The forces can ask for whatever they want, but being professionals they can fight and win with what they get. A trickle of fancy, unaffordable Western aircraft inducted over the next decade isn't going to substantively alter this in a strategic sense.

ShauryaT
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Re: BRF Jirga Princeton, NJ SATURDAY APRIL 28 2018

Postby ShauryaT » 03 May 2018 07:27

Rudradev wrote:Shaurya T believes that Modi asked for the summit, and has in effect humiliated India by going on bended knee before the Son of Heaven in the Middle Kingdom... exactly in line with how China sees its model of asserting supremacy over its neighbours.
A little clarification is needed. The issue raised by me was not about humiliation or H&D issues. It is about the equation of states of geo-political power between the states. In fact, I credit Modi for not having any false sense of egos. As mentioned, the net differential in states of power between India and China at this time is widest it's ever been, in history. Modi asking for a meeting and Xi agreeing to such and then Modi going over would by itself would be an acknowledgment of this differences in states of power. It is also an acknowledgment that we will not resist China's rise to power - as long as our direct currently held borders are not violated and there is no overt military engagement in the IOR or the sub-continent.

As mentioned, in Modi's vision, he wants to focus on India's economic development and Modi as a leader has not shown to be vested in power either military or geo-political. But if Xi indeed asked Modi to come over, the characterization you have made is not far off the mark. It is the emperor who summons his tribute paying neighbors, the emperor does not travel, unless he needs something or wants to deliver a message.

I personally do not make much of Gagan Shakti as a "message". Great to keep our forces and plans exercised. They know what we have and are willing and their forces increasingly exercise too including in TAR and SCS and mobility based exercises of PLA/PLAAF.

I did not elaborate much on this but that fact that this meeting came after the EAM and RM meetings, as an "informal" meeting speaks volumes to the lack of progress at the principal levels that Modi felt it was necessary to ask for a direct talk (based on his beliefs in personal diplomacy). As mentioned, Modi's goals are modest and quite insular in its executable vision (his rhetoric is a different matter) and scope.

Net-Net: Modi seeks to play the traditional MEA game of promising non-alignment but willing to transact with one and all with his and the country's natural bias towards the west intact.

ramana
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Re: BRF Jirga Princeton, NJ SATURDAY APRIL 28 2018

Postby ramana » 03 May 2018 19:59

Maybe we shut down the forum threads and have more regional meets and report back.

Looks like very good discussion better than the threads here!!!

ShauryaT, Now I will make some remarks. I will give examples lest I be charged with being taciturn. Normally I don't give the examples and want the people to come up so I know they understand.

Politics is about power. Pure and simple. Power for what?

Power to initiate, control the discourse.

Approach to power can be strategic/global/ideal etc., which is what you would like to do in an ideal state with a clean sheet of paper. Some thing like Archimedes" I can lift the Earth if I have a long enough lever and an ideal fulcrum." Not going to happen as the lever is too long or fulcrum is not available. The big ideas of growing the economy to become a world power is this category.

The other approach to power is tactical/local or regional/ realistic/ etc. This method realizes you need to win the local first to get to global. Eg. Cyrus won the province of Fars and set out to win all of Middle East and became Cyrus the Great. Alexander's father Philip won Macedon and launched his son's imperial ambitions. Shivaji won the Marathwada region and launched the Maratha Empire. The little Dutch boy stuck his finger in the leaky dyke and prevented the town from being flooded. These are all tactical or realistic approaches.

To me the ideal is tactical or realistic driven by ideology or strategic objectives.

On deeper thinking all the above had big goals but they tempered them with realism.

Now look at Wuhan summit in this light and tell us what you think.

Mahindra
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Re: BRF Jirga Princeton, NJ SATURDAY APRIL 28 2018

Postby Mahindra » 04 May 2018 05:20

I was really excited to hear about this Jirga (wouldn't have occurred to me to call it a Jirga, though!)

I have been looking forward to a discussion group just like this for awhile, and was really appreciative of the discussion and insights. There is nothing like a live discussion. I would like to organize a similar thing in the Seattle area. Folks all the way from Vancouver BC to Portland, OR, and nearby areas can attend. Don't know how many BRF'ites are in this area, or if there is any interest in a discussion. Actually I would like to go further and create a regular meet/discuss forum. There are all kinds of people here who meet regularly for bhajans, keerthans etc. but no one wants to talk anything useful like this.

Are the mods ok with this? if so, hw can I post my contact info on the forum (my email?)? Sorry I ask these questions because I am new here. Didn't need to pay attention while I was a lurker.

ramana
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Re: BRF Jirga Princeton, NJ SATURDAY APRIL 28 2018

Postby ramana » 04 May 2018 05:43

First open a thread for your region of interest and see how many respond. Then if it has enough mass contact them.

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Re: BRF Jirga Princeton, NJ SATURDAY APRIL 28 2018

Postby Avik » 04 May 2018 12:14

I would like to organize a similar thing in the Seattle area.


I can join..let me know how I can reach you

Mahindra
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Re: BRF Jirga Princeton, NJ SATURDAY APRIL 28 2018

Postby Mahindra » 04 May 2018 20:32

Avik - contact me at majender dot hotmail.

ramana
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Re: BRF Jirga Princeton, NJ SATURDAY APRIL 28 2018

Postby ramana » 05 May 2018 01:58

ramana wrote:XI.


AVM Arjun Subramanian(R) also concurs....


viewtopic.php?p=2270620#p2270620

MurthyG
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Re: BRF Jirga Princeton, NJ SATURDAY APRIL 28 2018

Postby MurthyG » 05 May 2018 02:52

Mahendra ji,
I would like to join. Sent you a pm. Please let me know if you received it.
Regards

ShauryaT
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Re: BRF Jirga Princeton, NJ SATURDAY APRIL 28 2018

Postby ShauryaT » 05 May 2018 21:00

ramana wrote:
ramana wrote:XI.


AVM Arjun Subramanian(R) also concurs....


viewtopic.php?p=2270620#p2270620
The attached quotes the below
The envoy said the idea of holding an informal summit was first mooted by Prime Minister Modi


ramana: Appreciate your thoughts above and understand the perspective you are coming from. Politics is about power is an immutable fact but when undertaken in a very corrosive electoral environment, the pursuit of power for transformation and not for the sake of power alone is what separates electoral leaders from transformative ones.

I am of the view and this view if I may claim has a wide intellectual consensus amongst the non-political class that India needs "transformative" reforms - not radical or iterative. There are about 8-10 areas that have this wide consensus and my benchmark for any leader is how far have they taken India towards these reforms. In fairness to Modi, he neither promised such transformations nor does his record show him carrying out such. Hence, People like me would be less than satisfied because there is an earnest desire to see such a transformation. NDA I had some sparks and hence that benchmark. However, your point is well taken and patience by the likes of me is the need of the day.


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