CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

The Military Issues & History Forum is a venue to discuss issues relating to the military aspects of the Indian Armed Forces, whether the past, present or future. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 5403
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Rakesh » 09 Aug 2018 09:20

KrishnaK wrote:Either the US actually believed that there were powerful threats that required the MIC that was built up or they made it up knowing full well that the threats did not justify the size of their MIC. The thinking of the people that have wielded power in the US is not like the protocols of the elders of Zion. It is openly available - for example there's a treasure trove of archives of what Nixon and Kissinger said during the 1971 crisis with India. It was recorded verbatim and declassified. Across 70 years and 16 different governments it should be fairly easy to come up with proof that these people made up enemies for power, no ? Why resort to movie quotes ? There's a more believable explanation - military power is built up to hedge against insecurity. For a while now the US has been asking Europe to contribute more, so its own spending can go down. Europe just does not have the political will required to do that at this point.

Insecurity on the part of the Americans who claim that they are suddenly feeling threatened in the Pacific Region from the Chinese. Play up that card in front of gullible elected officials in the US Armed Services Committee in Washington and then billions of dollars miracously flow into the coffers of the American military.

An insecurity that did not exist from 1947 to the early 1990s. Then the Soviet Union collapsed and America then needed a new enemy, which China was ever eager to play.

Then rope in countries in the region (India, Japan, Australia, etc) and make them believe that the evil Chinese are out to annnihilate them. At least in India's case, the China threat existed well before the 1962 Indo-China War. We lost that war due to Nehru's foolishness and not for anything else.

And then make the claim that if you join a US-led alliance, we will help you in a future conflict against China. Whether they actually will, is very much in doubt. And with regards to the bolded part below, now we are being told to reduce our oil imports from Iran.

Countries Don’t Have Friends; Just Interests
http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/2013/10/ ... riendship/

India and the United States have common interests in fighting Islamist terrorism and in providing a strategic counterweight to China. But India has a fruitful relationship with Iran that they see no reason to sever. Should we “punish” them for that? How would we do that without also “punishing” them for being our allies against the Taliban? Should we have “punished” our ally, France, for not supporting our war in Iraq by not supporting their war in Libya? Or should we have supported our ally Britain for its staunch support in Iraq by joining the very same war against Libya? Should we have rewarded Russia for its support for our war in Afghanistan by dropping our support for Georgian membership in NATO? Or should we have rewarded Georgian support for the Iraq war by pushing harder for their membership in NATO?


This is how unreliable and untrustworthy the Americans really are.

Obama: Leaving Iran deal 'misguided'
https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/08/politics ... index.html

"In a democracy, there will always be changes in policies and priorities from one Administration to the next," Obama's statement continued. "But the consistent flouting of agreements that our country is a party to risks eroding America's credibility, and puts us at odds with the world's major powers."

KrishnaK
BRFite
Posts: 942
Joined: 29 Mar 2005 23:00

Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby KrishnaK » 09 Aug 2018 09:35

Rakesh wrote:Kakarat: For Your Reading Pleasure :)

The military-industrial complex is booming in Trump's America: Don Pittis
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/whiteh ... -1.4258762

The U.S. Still Leans on the Military-Industrial Complex
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/22/busi ... mplex.html

How the Military Industrial Complex Controls America
https://www.globalresearch.ca/how-the-m ... ca/5633549

I thought the MIC wasn't about profits, but about power. Since we're back on the topic of profits, why not just invest in apple and reap the rewards ?

Lockheed Martin Profit Margin (Quarterly)
Apple Profit Margin (Quarterly)

These are facts - numbers that happened in the past. What you present are opinions of individuals - much like this

Again, across 70 years of public US policy there should be data on how the powers that be cooked all of this up. Heres' the archives from the state department from 1997-2001

Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 5403
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Rakesh » 09 Aug 2018 09:51

KrishnaK wrote:I thought the MIC wasn't about profits, but about power. Since we're back on the topic of profits, why not just invest in apple and reap the rewards ?

Nice obfuscation on the bolded part, but try again :)

Example of the very much alive & strong American MIC.

2017 United States–Saudi Arabia arms deal
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Unit ... _arms_deal
Deal Worth - US$110 billion to the American MIC.

% of the profits that Apple Inc shared of the above? Zero.

So you can bring in nonsensical comparsions of Lockheed Martin vs Apple. However Apple is not in the arms industry, but Lockheed Martin, Boeing, etc very much are. And thus the same is true with COMCASA. Sign the agreement and then sell billions of dollars of arms to India, from the various American organizations in their MIC. And all the while, claim that this is being done to hedge bets against China.

Just as the headline of the article I posted above states - Countries Don’t Have Friends; Just Interests.

So how does the American MIC continue to thrive? Keep the threat alive - whether real or imagined - and keep buying US arms. It does not service American geopolitical goals to see China disappear. How will the American MIC have Profit & Power then :)

Because apart from the China threat, what other claim do you really have for India signing COMCASA? None :lol:

KrishnaK wrote:These are facts - numbers that happened in the past. What you present are opinions of individuals - much like this

:lol: That explains a lot about you! How many shots did you miss when growing up?

KrishnaK wrote:Again, across 70 years of public US policy there should be data on how the powers that be cooked all of this up. Heres' the archives from the state department from 1997-2001

I pass on American propoganda :D

So that is where you believe all the fairy and make believe tales about America. Nice!

Trikaal
BRFite
Posts: 311
Joined: 19 Jul 2017 08:01

Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Trikaal » 09 Aug 2018 11:37

Rakesh wrote:India not to join US-led counter to China’s BRI
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 300729.cms
07 August 2018


Even though I do not support COMCASA or getting too cosy with the US, this I believe was a mistake. China is going full steam ahead with CPEC and instead of countering it with Japan, US and Australia, we are following the age old failed principle of NAM. This will only embolden the chinese to hurt Indian interests impudently. BRI should be countered economically as aggressively as possible.

Kakarat
BRFite
Posts: 1336
Joined: 26 Jan 2005 13:59

Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Kakarat » 09 Aug 2018 11:53

KrishnaK wrote:What is the utility of this power ?

Either the US actually believed that there were powerful threats that required the MIC that was built up or they made it up knowing full well that the threats did not justify the size of their MIC. The thinking of the people that have wielded power in the US is not like the protocols of the elders of Zion. It is openly available - for example there's a treasure trove of archives of what Nixon and Kissinger said during the 1971 crisis with India. It was recorded verbatim and declassified. Across 70 years and 16 different governments it should be fairly easy to come up with proof that these people made up enemies for power, no ? Why resort to movie quotes ? There's a more believable explanation - military power is built up to hedge against insecurity. For a while now the US has been asking Europe to contribute more, so its own spending can go down. Europe just does not have the political will required to do that at this point.


Precisely, there's no advantage to spending on defense, unless there's some benefit to be gained from it. In the case of India & the US that is security.


The utility of power is geopolitical control that US is able to extract from many of its puppets. Without a strong military it is not possible and that strong military is not possible with out a MIC. A spin off of a strong MIC is arms exports and one more control string with agreements like EUMA, LSA, CISMOA and BECA. Without this kind of hard power do you think it would be easy to exert soft power, control currency flow and OIL?

KrishnaK wrote:I thought the MIC wasn't about profits, but about power. Since we're back on the topic of profits, why not just invest in apple and reap the rewards ?

Lockheed Martin Profit Margin (Quarterly)
Apple Profit Margin (Quarterly)

These are facts - numbers that happened in the past. What you present are opinions of individuals - much like this

Again, across 70 years of public US policy there should be data on how the powers that be cooked all of this up. Heres' the archives from the state department from 1997-2001


Apple can be profitable than Lockheed Martin but a Iphone cannot be used to exert geopolitical power like a F-35 ''An apple can rot but a F-35 won't'
An apple is a consumer market product and is always profitable. The alternatives for a Iphone are many but an alternative for a F-35 are too few and they also come with strings attached

Thanks for the links Rakesh

Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 5403
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Rakesh » 09 Aug 2018 20:00

Trikaal wrote:Even though I do not support COMCASA or getting too cosy with the US, this I believe was a mistake. China is going full steam ahead with CPEC and instead of countering it with Japan, US and Australia, we are following the age old failed principle of NAM. This will only embolden the chinese to hurt Indian interests impudently. BRI should be countered economically as aggressively as possible.

I agree with you in principle Trikaal. The NAM policy was indeed a failed policy. But how non-aligned was India really? Thanks to Nehru and VK Krishna Menon's stupidity, we were anything but non-aligned. From five year plans to a socialistic economy, we largely followed a Soviet economic model. And we paid for that both monetarily and geopolitically. It was a disaster.

Now the pendulum has swung the other way - free market economy. But as one retired Navy Admiral put it, "After leaving the tight embrace of the Russians, must India run into the open arms of the Americans?" We need to be cautious of what we are getting ourselves into. Do not mistake my dismissing the China threat, as China being weak. Far from it. The danger from the Dragon is VERY real. But fear is a choice, which we will buy into if we listen to the few who argue for a blind faith in aligning with America.

This is how it starts. First comes strategic alignment and then comes control. America uses its allies/friends like tissue paper. What do you do with used tissue paper? :) See the sordid F-16 episode with Pakistan for example. Sure, India benefited from it. But what is the guarantee that tomorrow we will not be at the receiving end of this? Just until a few weeks ago, we were very much facing the threat of sanctions from CAATSA. Trikaal, there are no real friends for India. We are on our own against China. Any future conflict - stone throwing or otherwise - India will have to face alone. Doklam was in 2017, just last year. Where was our new all-weather friend America? :)

What gives the appearance of a strong Chinese military is NOT the number of ships, planes and tanks they have. It lies in their ability to develop new platforms and mass produce those platforms. Look at chola's posts in the China military thread. And the only way to counter China is to have your own strong and independent MIC that can do the same. Signing agreements carte blanche and doing screwdrivergiri on foreign military platforms will do little to counter the Chinese. In fact, going down that path will achieve the opposite of what the Modi Govt wants India to achieve --> self reliance. The American MIC just wants to sell us platforms and thus the China threat.

So the goal is to pick-and-choose what is right for India ---> Platforms, Agreements, Strategic Alignments. But not to follow everything what the Americans insist that we must do. I suspect that if we do sign the COMCASA agreement in September, it will likely be a neutered, watered down, platform-specific agreement i.e. NASAMS for one. And that may be palatable for the Indian political establishment. Serves multiple goals, but we can avoid listening to the whining from the Amreekis. Again, the goal is to do what is right for India FIRST and not what is right for an imaginary Quad alliance or even an Indo-US alliance.

You brought up the issue of BRI. Now we are being told by the Americans that we must reduce our oil imports from Iran, because Iran is the enemy. Developing the Chabahar Port is one of the key initiatives to counter CPEC. Now we must walk away from our relationship from Iran, because America says so. And then we must follow a US-led alliance to counter BRI. I am very happy that the Indian Govt did not tow the American line. We were told to not buy the S-400 from Russia, because it will harm interoperability with the US. They offered Patriot and THAAD in exchange. But we went ahead with the S-400 purchase anyway. The Americans do not get to tell us what we can buy and what we cannot buy. Signing a blanket CISMOA-type agreement will take us down that path.

Karan M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 15355
Joined: 19 Mar 2010 00:58

Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Karan M » 09 Aug 2018 22:02

KrishnaK wrote:It's Apple selling smartphones that's a trillion dollar company. Lockheed Martin, the world's largest arms seller is valued at 90 billion - less than 1/10th. Do look up the profitability of Facebook vs Lockheed Martin if you're interested in facts.


Mod note:
Comparing a consumer electronics firm to an arms conglomerate and claiming they are equivalent, is beyond silly. It verges on trolling and a deliberate attempt to obfuscate a serious discussion by being deliberately obtuse or being facetious.

Reconsider your attitude and participation in this thread. The next time you make such wantonly pointless posts as well as constantly disparage other members as resorting to conspiracy theories etc and in turn vitiating the tone and tenor of the thread and provoking responses, you will get a warning.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50045
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby ramana » 09 Aug 2018 23:29

Rakesh, George Friedman of Stratfor on Bloomberg said that US either overestimates or underestimates the threat and this is based on need for funding the military and the MIC. FSU threat was overestimated in the 1980s and even when there were signs of collapse not mentioned. China was underestimate all thru the 90s and 2000s. Only after 2008 meltdown suddenly China has become a threat and this is causing sever economic churning in US.

Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 5403
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Rakesh » 10 Aug 2018 03:03

Exactly Ramana-ji. Well put.

Trikaal, think about this scenario carefully ---> Would China be a threat to India, America and other nations if they bought their arms, instead of developing their own? They have been xerox-copying for decades now, but it is only recently that their efforts are really paying off. And that is causing a lot of discomfort to the Americans. Now put yourself in China's shoes. How do you think they view India, who are still importing a large chunk of her weaponry? A nation's strength lies not in a game of battleship (where we count the number of our platforms vs the number of their platforms) but rather how good those platforms are and how much they can mass produce them. The Chinese have mastered the latter and will very quickly master the former. We have largely overcome the challenges of the former, but are struggling with the latter.

To beat the Chinese at their own game, we need a strong and independent MIC. There are no shortcuts. Doing screwdrivergiri of foreign platforms is going to be a regression of our MIC, instead of a progression.

- Rather than wait for FOC of Tejas (that will come!), focus on improving production of the two lines and even look at a third line.
- Rather than wait for unobtanium platform called the FMBT (Future Main Battle Tank), focus on improving Arjun MBT production.
- Rather than order additional M777 howitzers, focus on inducting a larger number of Dhanush artillery.

I can go on with the above list. India's saving grace will be in mastering the above. It is not about the platform. On the contrary, it is about mass production with improved variants in each production batch --> whatever the platform may be. This is what the Chinese have learnt well.

Trikaal
BRFite
Posts: 311
Joined: 19 Jul 2017 08:01

Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Trikaal » 10 Aug 2018 09:06

Rakesh ji, I totally agree with you on the utmost need for the maturity of MIC. Even World War 2 was a competition between Allied and Axis MICs. Since Allied forces were able to outproduce the Axis powers, they won.

India can never even think of offense as long as we are bogged down in expensive purchases. MIC of a country determines its military prowess. No arguments there.

This is also why I am not in support of attaching to the Americans at the hip. They will never allow our MIC to develop. They will bribe where possible, coerce where they can, and sabotage where they cannot. It is counterproductive for Americans to allow India to be self reliant. They don't want the same Chinese headache to return in a couple of decades in the form of India. They want us to become just like Pakistan, an attack dog that jumps at the master's wishes.

However, I believe we should still leverage the US power where we can. Establishing a common corpus to fund infrastructure projects as a competition to BRI is one such thing we should have considered favorably. Granted, I don't know a lot of technical details about this project and there could be something there that has deterred the establishment.

But if the reason of denial was chinese appeasement then it was wrong. This is something that the indian government resorts to doing quite often. Earlier, it was russian appeasement by buying shit weapons without any tech transfer. Then it was US appeasement from C-17s to NASAMS for a myriad reasons. There is a chance that after wuhan, we have started chinese appeasement too to keep the chinese in good humor. The evidence so far is not sufficient to establish this but there sure is some smoke.

Trikaal
BRFite
Posts: 311
Joined: 19 Jul 2017 08:01

Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Trikaal » 10 Aug 2018 11:19

Thought it was appropriate for the ongoing discussion so posting here:

Another example of how US establishment respects Indian government and shares everything. This should remove all doubts from the minds of COMCASA naysayers :wink: :wink:
http://idrw.org/cia-kept-changing-story ... ore-177759

‘CIA kept changing story on losing the nuclear device in Nanda Devi’

In 1965, during a secret expedition to Nanda Devi, an atomic device got lost and continues to be missing and potentially hazardous to the people of India if it contaminates the Ganga – a concern that was recently voiced by the Uttarakhand tourism minister. The chilling story of international espionage, involving China, the CIA and the Indian government, is now being made into a Hollywood film. Namita Devidayal spoke to the leader of the expedition, Capt Manmohan Singh Kohli , now 88 and living in Delhi, about the three-year-long project that remains one of India’s lurking unsolved mysteries

Tell us a little bit about the background to the expedition.
After the Chinese carried out their first nuclear test in 1964, the US decided to spy on China’s nuclear capabilities via India. The CIA asked the Indian government if it could plant a sensor. The government, which at the time blindly followed the CIA, agreed. On June 23, 1965, we did a trial run on Mount McKinley in Alaska, and then went to Nanda Devi, but had to turn back because of bad weather conditions. Unable to carry it back, we left the device there. We went back in May 1966 to search for it, and again in 1967 but had no luck. In 1968, we finally abandoned the search. Because it was a top-secret mission, we were not allowed to disclose what we were doing even to our families. The American agents used aliases. The whole thing was quite exhausting, but we were in the service of the nation.

What was it like to do a covert operation with the US Intelligence?

The CIA was not very straightforward and frank with the Indian government when the device got lost. It kept changing its version. The government did not have a say right from the beginning, so the whole thing ended up being a bit topsy-turvy.

What is the potential damage that can be caused by the nuclear device?

The life of the device is about 100 years and there are still about 40 years left. If it goes into the Rishi-Ganga, the water can get very contaminated and more people would get affected, even die. But once it goes to the main Ganga, there would be quite a lot of dilution, and some people might suffer but it would not lead to fatalities. According to my estimates, the device is very hot and once it touches the glacier, it will start sinking until it touches rock. Then it won’t move.

What has prevented the Indian government from locating the device and preventing any fallout?

It may be worthwhile to try to locate it now that technology has improved and there is machinery that can penetrate ten to fifteen feet of ice. But using such equipment is very expensive and the question remains whether the Indian government should use its own money or persuade the CIA to do the needful.

Do you think China might know where the device is?

I don’t think so. The device is not active. There are four parts to the device – the generator with the plutonium capsules, two transmitter sets, and one big aerial to collect the radio waves – and they are all buried separately. If not connected together, there is very little possibility of anyone finding it.

There have been reports that Hollywood producer Scott Rosenfelt (of Home Alone fame) is making a film about this.

They’ve completed the script already and chosen Greg Mclean as director.Now they are going to choose the cast, and they might pick Ranbir Kapoor to play me. They spoke to his mother and she was positive.They had told me that shooting will start sometime in March 2020. They have kept the story 100% authentic.

ArjunPandit
BRFite
Posts: 1125
Joined: 29 Mar 2017 06:37

Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby ArjunPandit » 10 Aug 2018 12:23

^^Not to say US has improved, but that was India of 60s a country defeated by China, living on US ships (Ship to Lip) with a recovering leadership under Shastri ji. Today it is a much stronger India. Although perceptions are yet to change. US' Chi-pak pasandi is not an imaginary thing


Return to “Military Issues & History Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 23 guests