kit wrote:eklavya wrote:India is not going to be sanctioned, and the partnership with US will grow in strength and in depth in the years ahead.
Keep the faith !.. Geopolitics does not work that way. America always had that itch to use a sort of "goad" on India the presumed elephant. This time they will use it differently, both conciliatory but also restrictions, this is precisely why we need to track how and when it develops.
what is the basis of such statements prospective statements. Historically you are right, but in geopolitics past alignments do not guarantee future alignments. The time india was on teh verge of sanctioned the needs were different. The past US needs were for afghanistan and for USSR.
Those needs no longer exist. This is not to say that India has a perfect alignment with US (basically meaning an errand boy for US). But sanctions are an extreme step. Not sure why this R&D after the admin change or few random statements. There's a bipartisan consensus on china. One can read that from voting patterns on anti china bills or initial noises on China. In any case India does not have any immediate plans to buy F35.
Coming to the case of Turkey. It has its own history in geopolitical terms, esp tacit alignment with ISIS Iran on different fronts in Syria, amongst other things. Exiting it from NATO bulwark after Erdogan's flirtations with different actors was a matter of time. Turkey was kicked out from F35. That was the major kick.
If India is sanctioned, it will be not just on engines, it will be on P8, Drone leases, C17, C130, mk45 mod 4, and what not esp after BECA< LEMOA, COMCASA variants. That means 1000s of jobs in areas for both republic or democratic areas and increased trade deficit with India.
My hunch is we wont get any generous terms, but transactional operations will still happen like they did in obama years. This is Obama 2.5 (half for Sleepy joe). Remember all major deals happened during that time only. The only event that may change things for us is something like a blue sky pokharan 3 by us. Otherwise things will go on. Even obama had mentioned pivot to asia. In one of pivots there was a mention of naval fleets spending more time in pacific.
With regards to goading that will happen by useful idiots like PJ (promila jaypal or not poor joke) that India has religious intolerance, kashmir internet blockade and that kind of moral lecturing. But you have to remember obama administration also did that to their staunch ally israel. So we will be shrugging off and moving on doing business deals and building our capabilities like we did in cold war era.
So unless there is some adverse event, i request we calibrate our rona dhona.