CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

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ArjunPandit
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby ArjunPandit » 20 Jan 2021 06:41

kit wrote:
eklavya wrote:India is not going to be sanctioned, and the partnership with US will grow in strength and in depth in the years ahead.


Keep the faith !.. Geopolitics does not work that way. America always had that itch to use a sort of "goad" on India the presumed elephant. This time they will use it differently, both conciliatory but also restrictions, this is precisely why we need to track how and when it develops.


what is the basis of such statements prospective statements. Historically you are right, but in geopolitics past alignments do not guarantee future alignments. The time india was on teh verge of sanctioned the needs were different. The past US needs were for afghanistan and for USSR.

Those needs no longer exist. This is not to say that India has a perfect alignment with US (basically meaning an errand boy for US). But sanctions are an extreme step. Not sure why this R&D after the admin change or few random statements. There's a bipartisan consensus on china. One can read that from voting patterns on anti china bills or initial noises on China. In any case India does not have any immediate plans to buy F35.

Coming to the case of Turkey. It has its own history in geopolitical terms, esp tacit alignment with ISIS Iran on different fronts in Syria, amongst other things. Exiting it from NATO bulwark after Erdogan's flirtations with different actors was a matter of time. Turkey was kicked out from F35. That was the major kick.

If India is sanctioned, it will be not just on engines, it will be on P8, Drone leases, C17, C130, mk45 mod 4, and what not esp after BECA< LEMOA, COMCASA variants. That means 1000s of jobs in areas for both republic or democratic areas and increased trade deficit with India.

My hunch is we wont get any generous terms, but transactional operations will still happen like they did in obama years. This is Obama 2.5 (half for Sleepy joe). Remember all major deals happened during that time only. The only event that may change things for us is something like a blue sky pokharan 3 by us. Otherwise things will go on. Even obama had mentioned pivot to asia. In one of pivots there was a mention of naval fleets spending more time in pacific.

With regards to goading that will happen by useful idiots like PJ (promila jaypal or not poor joke) that India has religious intolerance, kashmir internet blockade and that kind of moral lecturing. But you have to remember obama administration also did that to their staunch ally israel. So we will be shrugging off and moving on doing business deals and building our capabilities like we did in cold war era.

So unless there is some adverse event, i request we calibrate our rona dhona.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby kit » 20 Jan 2021 13:42

Indeed if sane heads prevail that might indeed be the case and you are right in that sense. I am thinking of another scenario where things are not overt but covertly done., like delaying of spares, delaying approvals for organisations like ISRO /DRDO., not outright denial !.. they have been doing this for quite a while now especially with delays in export licenses and what not., those working with military and nuclear establishments can well attest to this., things had changed some what only VERY recently., as far as 2017-18 this was the case.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby ArjunPandit » 20 Jan 2021 15:44

valid point,
in a way that might not be bad..forces too would realize that desi mal works best in the long run. IAF has realized it recently, it will get institutionalized with a large mass of tejas pilots (not just test) reaching top echelons.

Speaking of which direction winds are blowing it might be worth looking what state secy or def secy are saying. Def secy seems to be on path to continue on path by trump of major defense partner
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/what-jo ... an-2355111
while words are words and actions need to be verified.
I do not see an adverse action against india materializing, very low chances of cold in relationship and and low chances of slowdown and moderate to high chances of nit picking of india on religious freedom due to CAA, 370, and SJW/EJ slowdown in india due to FX restrictions and shell company slow strangleholds on these. US admin, like their financial culture might end up dumping china out of fear in coming periods. That augurs well for india but the question is how far our govt is willing to go? So far we have been firm on our foreign policy and other aspects..

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby chetak » 20 Jan 2021 15:56

kit wrote:Indeed if sane heads prevail that might indeed be the case and you are right in that sense. I am thinking of another scenario where things are not overt but covertly done., like delaying of spares, delaying approvals for organisations like ISRO /DRDO., not outright denial !.. they have been doing this for quite a while now especially with delays in export licenses and what not., those working with military and nuclear establishments can well attest to this., things had changed some what only VERY recently., as far as 2017-18 this was the case.


Biden administration to revive military-to-military ties with Pakistan



There will be a definite blowback on India and Modi will gradually cool off to any further US overtures as the conflict of interest, Indo pacific and af pak is no more covert but "out in the open" overt.

The hans will benefit both ways as the biden commie/jehadi gangs begin to bear down on India.

the russians have already read the tea leaves right


"India a very close, Very Strategic, Very Special, and Very Privileged Partner." : Russian FM Sergey

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Philip » 20 Jan 2021 17:32

Hints that the US will resume military aid to terrorist Pak by the Biden admin, actually controlled by the Obama-Clinton clique, very pro-Pak and anti- India, would destroy the years of patient Indo- US cooperation,esp. in formulating an informal anti- PRC alliance.
India and its FM,PM, have invested v.heavily in a close security relationship with the US,buying much US milware in the bargain.
The US establishment is however notoriously pro-Pak because of the Afghan drug trade,controlled a lot by the ISI,covert partners with the CIA. We are going to see much irritation in Indo- US relations,which may end up the same way that appeasement of China kicked us in the teeth.
Whyfor aeons I've said that the LCA should have an alternate engine ready in case the US once more goes down the sanction route,the EJ TVC model.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby chetak » 20 Jan 2021 18:48

Philip wrote:Hints that the US will resume military aid to terrorist Pak by the Biden admin, actually controlled by the Obama-Clinton clique, very pro-Pak and anti- India, would destroy the years of patient Indo- US cooperation,esp. in formulating an informal anti- PRC alliance.
India and its FM,PM, have invested v.heavily in a close security relationship with the US,buying much US milware in the bargain.
The US establishment is however notoriously pro-Pak because of the Afghan drug trade,controlled a lot by the ISI,covert partners with the CIA. We are going to see much irritation in Indo- US relations,which may end up the same way that appeasement of China kicked us in the teeth.
Whyfor aeons I've said that the LCA should have an alternate engine ready in case the US once more goes down the sanction route,the EJ TVC model.


they may already be looking at a french engine as alternate :mrgreen:

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby kit » 20 Jan 2021 19:30

Almost certain Biden proscribes to the "dialogue" with China regarding spheres of influence., a good indicator would be how much invested they are in IO region. Again likely they will abandon this idea , hope i am wrong here., but most indications are to "re-engage" china., read make money for US MNC s ., national security be damned.[ "carving" up the world into 2 spheres of influence was previously discussed between these two countries , only that Trump put a spanner into the whole thing, Obama was just playing along and Biden looks to be a part of it !! ]

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby ArjunPandit » 20 Jan 2021 20:41

Joe Biden intelligence pick favors 'aggressive' stance on China threat

From the conservative pro china stables of economist
https://www.economist.com/china/2020/11 ... and-obamas

From china loving NYT
US saying xinjiang is genocide
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/19/us/p ... jiang.html

Most likely joe will start a conversation but most likely he wont be the china loving guy. Let's see

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Rakesh » 20 Jan 2021 23:43

Read the tweets from response to the article....

India's friction with U.S. rises over planned purchase of Russian S-400 defence systems
https://www.reuters.com/article/india-u ... SL4N2JP2EV
15 Jan 2021
================
Tweets from Jeff M Smith, Research Fellow @ South Asia-Heritage Foundation
https://twitter.com/Cold_Peace_/status/ ... 57792?s=20 ---> I think a CAATSA waiver for India is more likely than this Reuters article suggests but not guaranteed. I doubt the Biden admin folks have given it much thought yet, let alone made a decision, and won't have to until India takes delivery of the S-400.

https://twitter.com/Cold_Peace_/status/ ... 91073?s=20 ---> And while I'll continue to vocally support a waiver (I'm not a fan of CAATSA), I also think the India-U.S. relationship can survive CAATSA sanctions, if they do happen. Just like it survived GSP and tariffs and a number of other irritants.
================
Twitter Thread from Tanvi Madan, Senior Fellow @ Brookings Institution in response to Jeff M Smith
https://twitter.com/tanvi_madan/status/ ... 59074?s=20 ---> A little late to this, but important enough an issue that I would like to flag why I have a slightly different perspective from Jeff on this. CAATSA sanctions would have a greater impact on US-India relations than GSP/tariffs & could set back India-US cooperation & Indians' view of US. Here’s why 1/...
================
Twitter Thread from Mohal Joshi @ India Rising in response to Tanvi Madan
https://twitter.com/MohalJoshi/status/1 ... 77056?s=20 ---> 1/n) This is one of the reasons why India never went with either F-16 or F/A-18 for MMRCA and will continue to have doubts over buying F-21/F-35/F-18, etc.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Rakesh » 21 Jan 2021 00:22

Another twitter thread....this time by Kunal Singh. His twitter profile states, "PHD-ing @MIT. Trained engineer from @IITKgp. Interested in nuclear weapons, India’s foreign policy and national security, cricket, and Hindi/Urdu poetry."

https://twitter.com/d_extrovert/status/ ... 40770?s=20 ---> Some thoughts on CAATSA and India. If India doesn't get a waiver, it might be a significant setback to India-US relations. India has been sanctioned before by the US for its nuclear tests. 1/8

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby mmasand » 21 Jan 2021 01:54

Lots of dhoti shivering on this thread, if Blinken's senate confirmation hearing is anything to go by, forget sanctions - there will be non-military co-operation. There are domestic vote banks he needs to satisfy on the green new deal, and Blinken was quite clear they need to cooperate with India to keep emissions low and assist with moving to renewable sources of energy. Sure, there will be the op-eds, and occasional statements made from the State dept corridors on human rights etc, but we can't be so fragile and have thick skin. Matt Pottinger's document on Indo-pacific clearly stresses on empowering India as a 'counter-balance'.

Hypothetically, what stops US from amending CAATSA to include China ? Will they vacate their bases in Philippines, ditch Vietnam, Bangladesh, other Asean countries that have imported equipment? Do they wish to be arm-twisted by Pakistan viz Afghanistan? A deterrence on our Western borders helps to achieve the QME over Pakistan, thereby reducing the likelihood of any conflict. Trust is easily broken, but takes decades to build. Elections are over, leave the rhetoric behind.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Rakesh » 21 Jan 2021 02:02

https://twitter.com/splalwani/status/13 ... 89697?s=20 ---> I’m very sympathetic to the “rethink CAATSA” arguments because I think the juice isn’t worth the squeeze (literally) but I also think Indian strategists need to rethink the capabilities they are assuming come with the S-400 system. This is a good start: --> https://t.co/FdUgp3X64V?amp=1

https://twitter.com/zone5aviation/statu ... 26945?s=20 ---> The US doesn’t want India to go S-400 because of worries it phones home. India wants the S-400 precisely because it is convinced it doesn’t. The issue is autonomy as much as capability.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby mmasand » 21 Jan 2021 19:41

Philip wrote:Hints that the US will resume military aid to terrorist Pak by the Biden admin, actually controlled by the Obama-Clinton clique, very pro-Pak and anti- India, would destroy the years of patient Indo- US cooperation,esp. in formulating an informal anti- PRC alliance.


Hint hint: US resumed military aid in January 2020 under Trump's instructions. It is self-defeating to look at foreign relations from the prism of your own interests. Until the withdrawal of the JCPOA, we continued to import oil from Iran, contrary to what the US admin would like to see. It was Biden as Senate foreign relations chair that lobbied to lift sanctions post 1998 to ink the civil-nuclear deal.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Rakesh » 21 Jan 2021 22:36

https://twitter.com/MeghUpdates/status/ ... 62786?s=20 ---> India to re-evalute it's Plan to Store Strategic Oil Reserves in US. (Ians)

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Rakesh » 21 Jan 2021 23:46

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/135 ... 42626?s=20 ---> According to the incoming US Defense Secretary his agenda would be to 'further operationalize India's "major defence partner" status'.

Translation: 'Our only really agenda with India is to score as many govt to govt arms deals as possible.'

:lol:

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Rakesh » 22 Jan 2021 03:42

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 52544?s=20 ---> Report: New US Admin to consider CAATSA like sanctions for major arms purchases from China.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Rakesh » 30 Jan 2021 01:39

https://twitter.com/AartiTikoo/status/1 ... 76259?s=20 ---> Biden’s CIA chief William Burns:
1. Modi “embraced a more confident role for India on world stage & revitalization of its domestic modernization”
2. Trump & Modi are “part of the problem in a world where democracies are busy undoing themselves”.

India, beware of US interventionism.

https://twitter.com/kakar_harsha/status ... 72000?s=20 ---> We should never jump to conclusions. Trump initially was also not pro India. His initial comments were contrary to Obama. His comments on Kashmir were unacceptable. Things changed with time. The US needs India and that is a fact. We need to think beyond just comments.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Rakesh » 30 Jan 2021 06:30

Is India’s Russian S-400 Missile Deal Comparable To Turkey’s Troubled Procurement?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/pauliddon/ ... ocurement/
27 Jan 2021

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Rakesh » 30 Jan 2021 06:31

India sticking to S-400 deal with Russia despite threat of possible US sanctions
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 9-amp.html
27 Jan 2021

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby kit » 30 Jan 2021 20:47

Rakesh wrote:https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/status/1352118214105452544?s=20 ---> Report: New US Admin to consider CAATSA like sanctions for major arms purchases from China.


Pakistan purchases nearly 40% of chinese arms exports !

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby kit » 01 Feb 2021 20:37

brar_w wrote:
kit wrote:
thats a very valid argument., but wasnt this the reason put for throwing (the) turkey under the bus :mrgreen: for procuring S400 s ?


Because the US operating the aircraft for an air-show appearance or taking protective measures while de-conflicting in an air-space isn't the same as someone else permanently operating the said system alongside Russian IADS (and Turkey was not just buying S-400 they also wanted S-500 partnership at one point IIRC). Moreover, a partner status on the largest 5th generation program in the world was seen as a privilege afforded only to the closest NATO and non NATO allies. If that said partner is now going to turn around and begin buying arms from NATO's primary adversary then that would and should warrant a re-examining that relationship and assumptions that led to the partner status in the first place. The US operates more than 400 F-35's right now with about 90 new aircraft added to that number each year. So beyond politics the operator has a vested interest in ensuring that the system can't be exploited so they too get a vote in addition to the policy makers.

Indeed so Turkey Not Equal to India when applying CAATSA

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Manish_Sharma » 03 Feb 2021 07:19

This is the trick of Americans, hence their friendship is more damaging than enmity.

They subjugate you colonize you enslave you so stealthily that you hardly know it.

THERE WILL BE NO SANCTIONS ON S-400, BUT GOI WILL BE MADE TO LOBBY HARD IN AVOIDING THEM. THEN SUBJUGATION WILL START AFTER THE WAIVER IS GIVEN. THE MOMENT INDIA GOES FOR NEXT PURCHASE FROM RUSSIA, AMERICAN OFFICIALS WILL START SAYING LOOK GUYS WE MOVED HEAVEN AND EARTH TO PROTECT YOU FROM S400 SANCTIONS & YOU ARE ALREADY BUYING NEW STUFF FROM RUSSIANS? AGAIN AND AGAIN GOI WILL BE BEATEN DOWN WITH GREAT FAVOR DONE BY INDIA-FRIENDLY-AMERICANs. UNTIL WE BECOME SOUTH KOREA OF USA WITH 60% RUSSIANS ARMs REPLACED WITH AMERICAN EQUIPMENT.

WHILE MEDIA AND CONGIS WILL CREATE RUCKUS AT EVERY FRENCH DEAL.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby arshyam » 03 Feb 2021 07:51

^^ <Nail firmly hit on the head>

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Rakesh » 04 Feb 2021 02:38

No blanket waiver on S-400, urge India to avoid Russian deals: US
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 655707.cms
03 Feb 2021

Speaking ahead of the Aero India summit in Bengaluru, the head of the US delegation has said India is an important and trusted partner for Indo-Pacific security and Washington DC is keen to work with India to develop key capabilities in the quest for self-reliance. On the S-400 issue — India has ordered the Russian surface to air missile system with deliveries expected towards the end of this year — US charged’affaires Don Heflin said there is a provision for case-by-case waiver of sanctions but no assurance has been given to India. “We urge all of our allies and partners to forego transactions with Russia that risk triggering sanctions under the countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act passed by our Congress. Now, some people ask, if there's a blanket or a blanket for one country waiver provision, there's not. It's on a case-by-case basis and we've not made any waiver determinations with respect to Indian transactions with Russia,” Heflin said.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby kit » 13 Feb 2021 16:27

Will They or Won't They? US Leaves Issue of Sanctions on India Under CAATSA Open-Ended
https://thewire.in/security-security/in ... ent-caatsa

The autarchic Act, that has no international or United Nations sanction was cleared by the US Congress in reaction to Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its alleged meddling in the 2016 US presidential elections. Thereafter, it has been invoked against China and Turkey for importing and inducting two S-400 systems each.

Such oblique references to CAATSA by senior and mid-level US officials have surfaced periodically over three years, in what many military planners in Delhi claim can only qualify as a tactical ploy by Washington to ‘nudge’ Delhi into buying its materiel. “As a country and a political system, the US is primarily motivated by the ubiquitous Deal” said a three-star IAF officer. And CAATSA is one such cog in its arsenal that it can deploy to secure more defence deals to add to India’s over $18-odd billion US defence equipment buys since 2002, he added, declining to be named.

To further their argument, senior Indian service officers and analysts maintain that other than employing CAATSA against Delhi as a ‘bargaining ship’ over the S-400 systems, it would be ‘illogical and irrational’ for Washington to invoke sanctions as Washington and the vast US military-industrial complex were both deeply invested in India strategically and commercially.

“In all likelihood, CAATSA is likely to be employed by the US as an impetus to influence its defence equipment sales to India,” said military analyst Air Marshal V.K. Jimmy Bhatia. It’s a useful cat’s paw for Washington in the competitive world of global arms trade to push its wares midst an economic and employment downturn, he presciently added.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Rakesh » 16 Feb 2021 22:19

America’s India Problem Is All About Russia
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/02/16/u- ... tin-biden/
16 Feb 2021

Forget U.S. sanctions over arms deals. Indian-Russian alignment is in Washington’s best interest.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Rakesh » 25 Feb 2021 23:45

India’s Purchase of the S-400: Understanding the CAATSA Conundrum
https://www.orfonline.org/research/indi ... conundrum/
25 Feb 2021

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Rakesh » 18 Mar 2021 21:58

US senator urges Defence Secretary to discuss human rights issues, Russian S-400 sale during India visit
https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/natio ... sit-226989
18 March 2021

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Rakesh » 18 Mar 2021 21:59

If someone has access to a more clearer copy of the letter, please post....

https://twitter.com/sriramthg/status/13 ... 42017?s=20 ---> If there were ever a letter dripping with colonial-level concern for the poor natives who dare not buy goods from someone else and at the same time act according to their rules and norms, this is it from Chairman US SFRC.

Image

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Prasad » 18 Mar 2021 22:59


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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Rakesh » 18 Mar 2021 23:02

Thank you Prasad Saar :)

PDF link to the letter ---> https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/medi ... 20trip.pdf

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby YashG » 18 Mar 2021 23:31

Manish_Sharma wrote:This is the trick of Americans, hence their friendship is more damaging than enmity.

They subjugate you colonize you enslave you so stealthily that you hardly know it.

THERE WILL BE NO SANCTIONS ON S-400, BUT GOI WILL BE MADE TO LOBBY HARD IN AVOIDING THEM. THEN SUBJUGATION WILL START AFTER THE WAIVER IS GIVEN. THE MOMENT INDIA GOES FOR NEXT PURCHASE FROM RUSSIA, AMERICAN OFFICIALS WILL START SAYING LOOK GUYS WE MOVED HEAVEN AND EARTH TO PROTECT YOU FROM S400 SANCTIONS & YOU ARE ALREADY BUYING NEW STUFF FROM RUSSIANS? AGAIN AND AGAIN GOI WILL BE BEATEN DOWN WITH GREAT FAVOR DONE BY INDIA-FRIENDLY-AMERICANs. UNTIL WE BECOME SOUTH KOREA OF USA WITH 60% RUSSIANS ARMs REPLACED WITH AMERICAN EQUIPMENT.

WHILE MEDIA AND CONGIS WILL CREATE RUCKUS AT EVERY FRENCH DEAL.


I agree so much.
All this CAATSA natak is useless. US cant sanction India & India should have autonomy over arms purchases. Sanctions would be one of the most stupidiest move - even American s know this better. I wonder why do they even put up the show of pretence. :rotfl:

Some cons of Biden Admin are that Biden brings that cold-war perception of Russia to table. It would be useful for Allied forces to not push Russia into a wall and even more so towards the Great Wall of China. I do not understand the allied obsession of breaking up Russia.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Cain Marko » 21 Mar 2021 00:20

Well it seems like the SecDef just had to mention caatsa related sanctions during his visit. In all fairness he was only responding to a question but sanctions are certainly not off the table it seems. Will be interesting to see what happens after the s400 is inducted. Not to mention other deals.

https://www.politiico.com/amp/news/2021/03/20/lloyd-austin-india-sanctions-s400-missile-477304.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby YashG » 21 Mar 2021 01:59

We should stop further strategic discussions with US till Americans stop doing the Caatsa natak. They dont intend to sanction us just playing along. We should stand this non-sense.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby kit » 21 Mar 2021 03:00

If not CAATSA then some other American act.., thats how the American system works. I suggest BRFites dont get worked up about this.

What I would say is., This looks like a situation trying to see who would blink first.

This episode and the result has a significant role in the future course of Indo American relations.

Will India be an equal partner or a poodle like the UK. Finally that WILL be the question for Indian policy makers.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Cain Marko » 21 Mar 2021 05:42

India did not cave in to US pressure when it was in a much weaker position. Unlikely to bend now.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby yensoy » 21 Mar 2021 15:46

1. The problem is not about caving in. It is about being dependent on critical supplies from the West which will happen as we integrate more tightly - for instance Tejas engines, even P8, Rafale, Dhruv components are subject to US sanctions if it came to it. Earlier we had the "luxury" of being independent of Western hardware.
2. It would be a good idea to ask a coalition partner MP (say AIADMK) to write a similar letter to PM pointing to US racism, BLM, targeting Indians, Asians and dark-skinned individuals as a precursor to saying "do not purchase US military hardware". Just a simple tit-for-tat.

nam
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby nam » 21 Mar 2021 16:32

it is a good thing US is not giving up on CAASTA. Our services will be forced to speed up XRSAM. It would be a good idea to allocate the S400 money to Su30 upgrades or some SSBN kit.

We had all the building blocks for XRSAM from our ABM program. If there was a hard push, we would have already started testing XRSAM.

Yeh import kha bhoot needs to be tied up.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby yensoy » 21 Mar 2021 16:58

nam wrote:Yeh import kha bhoot needs to be tied up.

It sounds good to go indigenous and no doubt I want that to happen too; but along the path to full indigenization we need to import critical components from the West which obviously has the best technology, has some kind of win-win arrangement with us (remember a lot of their own engineering/design/fabrication work is done in India), and fits in with our geopolitics.

For true indigenization, we draw up the requirements, we do the main design, we procure the best of the components, we build as many of these assemblies we can locally and integrate with the rest, we do rigorous testing and draw up SOPs. This is the real stuff where we own the IP even if we were to import every single rivet; as opposed to license screwdrivergiri that has passed off as indigenization for all these years.

We can stockpile, yes. We can throw the dog a bone, yes. But we cannot go cold turkey for extended periods (of years) without consequence. Then we will also have to pay spot prices to the Israelis or Russians in case of any exigencies, and that will further box us in.

OTOH, we are actually leasing a nuclear submarine from the Russians and the Americans haven't even commented about it; our Brahmos joint development is looking for export markets; so maybe there is some room to maneuver, and much of this is grandstanding from the American senators.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Cyrano » 21 Mar 2021 17:41

*** X Posting from StratFor India-US relations thread ***

What exactly is the logic given by US to not buy Russian equipment? I see none. The expectation is that just because Amreeka doesnt like it, or perceives such equipment as a "potential" threat to US' super duper F35, or wants to stifle Russian MIC and generally cause decline in Russian influence over the world, India should comply.

Asking India to ditch Russian equipment is simply overreach. US obviously knows India's ORBAT is full of Russian tanks, aircraft, subs and bunch of other stuff. One of the reasons for US' keen interest in conducting exercises with Indian forces was/is to get to know Russian equipment in near combat situations, and therefore update their doctrines and tactics with the knowledge gained.

By sticking to this demand to cancel S400 purchase, US has painted itself into a corner.

India is buying S-400 to primarily to counter China's already purchased S-400 system to reestablish parity, since more of India's populated regions and cities come under Chinese missile ranges than vice versa. S-400 is not just a fancy gadget but it will become a central component of India's self defence architecture in the future.

GoI simply cannot give in on S400 since it goes to the heart of its security and sovereignty and sets a precedent of letting a foreign power dictate how India should equip its military.

After imposing sanctions on Turkey, the US cannot let India's refusal to obtemperate go by without reaction.

Imposing "sanctions" will reinforce India's lingering suspicion of US intent and will make it move away, thus undoing the rapprochement that both sides have achieved painstakingly over the past 3 decades.

Ultimately, CAATSA is US' internal problem. They have to find some creative way to push a waiver for India in their system, in the interest of the relationship's future growth. The best course of action is to get a (purposefully vague) statement issued on the lines of "India has listened carefully to US' concerns and has shown willingness to find mutually acceptable solutions for the future..." and let this S400 issue fall off the radar.


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