CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 19 Apr 2022 20:38

America Should Be Realistic About India
https://www.theamericanconservative.com ... out-india/
19 April 2022

By Akhil Ramesh - a research fellow with the Pacific Forum based out of Hawaii.

The United States' Indo-Pacific strategy cannot afford to alienate its most important partner.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 18 May 2022 07:18

So from possibly placing sanctions for acquiring S-400, the US is now moving to military aid...in the tune of US $500 million.

US Seeks to Wean India From Russia Weapons With Arms-Aid Package
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... id-package
17 May 2022

=========================================

Please consider the below before accepting or rejecting the possible military aid....

https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... vXBn6uuVDg ---> US Congressman Austin Scott says he is very concerned about India's demand for technology transfer of US equipment to Indian companies.

https://twitter.com/TrendingThough1/sta ... vXBn6uuVDg ---> As a retired predictive modeler, am trying to collect data to build a model. Intent: see if there are any legs to my theory that Neocons will destabilize India. Clearly, to me, Neocons are not happy with India. Indian push for self sufficiency has caught the eyes of Neocons.

https://twitter.com/TrendingThough1/sta ... vXBn6uuVDg ---> My eyes are on the 114 IAF (F-15/F-21/F-18 on table) & 54 for navy (F-18 on table). And, whole bunch of smaller deals. India wants ALL to be built in India. Came across one Congressman complaining during session about India's attempt to be self sufficient in arms!! Neocons not like.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 18 May 2022 07:49

What? no lend & lease for most valuable strategic partner of Qua? in the indo patheic ? Are Mamis, Jaypals and RoKhas dyeing their brown roots white?

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 18 May 2022 13:06

Rakesh wrote:So from possibly placing sanctions for acquiring S-400, the US is now moving to military aid...in the tune of US $500 million.

US Seeks to Wean India From Russia Weapons With Arms-Aid Package
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... id-package
17 May 2022

My Reply ---> viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7634&start=2600#p2549893

sajaym · Post by **sajaym** » 18 May 2022 18:39

US to offer India $500 mn in military aid to reduce Russia dependence: Report
https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-ne ... 17651.html

The US is preparing a military aid package for India to deepen security ties and reduce the country’s dependence on Russian weapons, people familiar with the matter said.

The package under consideration would include foreign military financing of as much as $500 million dollars

Happy days are here for our armed forces! I can already imagine our jarnails burning mid night oil preparing huge lists of 'emergency' items...this will start the pakistanisation of our armed forces.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 18 May 2022 19:06

sajaym wrote:US to offer India $500 mn in military aid to reduce Russia dependence: Report
https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-ne ... 17651.html

“As much as $500 million”?

Is that the punchline to a joke?

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 18 May 2022 19:11

Baikul wrote: “As much as $500 million”?

Is that the punchline to a joke?

Higher the package of aid offered, higher will be the expectation that India does not harm US' interests i.e. purchasing arms from Russia.

$500 million will not even be a dent in the 114 MRFA or 26 (long term 57) MRCBF contracts, but as the article states it will be considered symbolic.

Whether the Govt accepts the aid or not, remains to be seen. Military aid without preconditions will likely be the GOI's counter offer.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 19 May 2022 09:19

Rakesh wrote:….
Higher the package of aid offered, higher will be the expectation that India does not harm US' interests i.e. purchasing arms from Russia.

$500 million will not even be a dent in the 114 MRFA or 26 (long term 57) MRCBF contracts, but as the article states it will be considered symbolic.

Whether the Govt accepts the aid or not, remains to be seen. Military aid without preconditions will likely be the GOI's counter offer.

Understood Admiral saab. My thought that if they offer a token amount to reduce Russian dependence, the reduction in dependence will also be token.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 19 May 2022 11:41

We should just tell them to bugger off.

Reminds me of a joke where a guy goes to a famous actress and offers a 1000$ to sleep with her, which she rejects with horror and says I'm not for sale. He keeps upping the offer and when the offer reaches 500M$ for a night, she agrees. The guy immediately drops the price back to 1000$ saying now that we've established you're for sale it's just a matter of negotiating the rate!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 May 2022 01:27

Sadly comments like sajaym's are made due to the high propensity for imports by the service.
For example:
During the LAC confrontation when govt allowed discretionary emergency purchases, all the funds were used for imports.
Not one service ordered any ordnance or BPJ from India.
Can give more if needed.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 15 Jun 2022 21:33

https://twitter.com/DerekJGrossman/stat ... W--xZF_OkQ ---> India doesn’t care about CAATSA whatsoever. Besides, the Biden admin will almost certainly look the other way.

S-400 Missile Systems Delivery To India Proceeding Well: Russian Envoy
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/russian ... ll-3061022
13 June 2022

=============================================================

The first author of the article below is a former Pakistani Ambassador to the US and the second is an Indian-American geopolitical analyst based in the US. The article is riddled with errors, but good for entertainment value.

Should the US temper its expectations of India?
https://thehill.com/opinion/internation ... -of-india/
07 June 2022

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 16 Jun 2022 03:48

CAATSA is like the caged lion to scare the goat from putting on weight in Birbal story.

Link: http://birbalstories.blogspot.com/2009/ ... gence.html

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 16 Jun 2022 03:49

US problem is how to feed the caged lion.
Not India's problem.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 22 Jun 2022 21:35

This came across my Twitter feed this morning. Author is a retired Indian Army officer ---> https://casi.sas.upenn.edu/visiting/anitmukherjee

Talks about the challenges the armed forces are facing with supporting Russian platforms (documented since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war), but puts in a few sentences about US-origin platforms as well. Therefore I am posting this article in here. He also quotes the infamous Lt Gen HS Panag (retd) who states "....caution against the potential short-term drawbacks of relying on indigenization in a country with low domestic manufacturing capabilities."

So basically, keep importing

Will order pithy amounts of every local platform (Tejas Mk1, LCH, HTT-40, etc) and then complain about low domestic manufacturing capabilities.

What the Indian military won't learn from the war in Ukraine
https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/what- ... n-ukraine/
By Major Anit Mukherjee (retd), 21 June 2022

In the first few months after the outbreak of the war, the military reportedly also curtailed flights of its American-made Chinook helicopters. That such orders were passed reflects not only the military’s uneasiness about potential Western sanctions but also their fears about Washington’s reliability.

If the IAF is doing this with the CH-47 Chinook, one can only imagine what they are doing with their other US-origin platforms i.e. AH-64 Apache, C-130 Hercules and C-17 Globemaster.

The IAF's uneasiness was well documented in the CAG report on MMRCA 1.0, but with the acquisitions of US military platforms since the publication of that report...one would have assumed, those concerns might have been assuaged. Reading the above, it appears the view has not changed and has taken a turn for the worse. The military is concerned not just with sanctions, but also with Washington's reliability. WOW!

The Russians are no better either. But still the focus must be on imports. It is just that India must not import from Russia, but from the West (i.e. basically India's preferred military supplier must be the US and no one else). With this view that Air HQ has, what chances do F-15EX, F-21 and F-18SH have in the 114 MRFA contest? I wonder if the author included the Navy in the above quote as well. If he did, that will sink the Rhino's chances in the 26 MRCBF contest also.

The author's solution is for the West (i.e. US) to engage deeper with India and take a leap of faith. Easy words to write in an article, but next to impossible to put into practice. None of them want India to develop her own MIC. The hypocrisy is amazing

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 15 Jul 2022 08:52

Quid Pro Quo for F-18SH?

Click on first link below for video.

https://twitter.com/ShivAroor/status/15 ... ft_mvVXSyA ---> US provides India with CAATSA waiver. The Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) had remained on the table ever since India's S-400 missile deal with Russia. Waiver, pushed by @RepRoKhanna, affirms India’s independence in defence contracting.

https://twitter.com/DerekJGrossman/stat ... A6koRUIyuw ---> India is almost CAATSA-proof. Just need Senate to vote yes and President Biden to sign into law.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 15 Jul 2022 08:55

https://twitter.com/sidhant/status/1547 ... ft_mvVXSyA ---> Statement from Ro Khanna's office: Waiver of Caatsa sanctions in best interests of US, US India defence partnership.

https://twitter.com/sidhant/status/1547 ... ft_mvVXSyA ---> (the amendment needs to be approved by senate).

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 15 Jul 2022 09:44

Rakesh wrote:Quid Pro Quo for F-18SH? Click on first link below for video.

Snip....

.

Beware of Americans bearing gifts.

kit · Post by **kit** » 15 Jul 2022 14:52

only reason being they cant "wean" India with offer of tech if CAATSA gets in the way. CAATSA was always a piece of American legislation that they have now conveniently put away since it did not serve their interests.. It was an oxymoron, after all.

India must and always follow her interests. Thats the lesson here.

Mods could lock this thread once the amendment gets through

KSingh · Post by **KSingh** » 15 Jul 2022 16:28

To see this as a ‘win’ is exactly how they want it to be perceived, they are doing you a favour by not punishing you for exercising your sovereignty?

This is predatory behaviour now they’ve set their sights on the Indian market

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 15 Jul 2022 17:46

Paving the way for removal of a major roadblock in India-Russia S-400 deal amid Ukraine war, the United States House of Representatives approved Indian-origin Congressman Ro Khanna’s amendment to the National Defence Authorization Act (NDAA). The amendment to the NDAA was passed by voice vote as part of an en bloc amendment during floor consideration of the NDAA. While it doesn’t equal a decision on CAATSA, it urges the administration to grant a waiver only to India. Ro Khanna said the move will further strengthen US and India's defence partnership. Watch this video for more details.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 15 Jul 2022 18:16

KSingh wrote:To see this as a ‘win’ is exactly how they want it to be perceived, they are doing you a favour by not punishing you for exercising your sovereignty?

This is predatory behaviour now they’ve set their sights on the Indian market

Absolutely, it's high time we build independence in all areas of technology. The US is the most unreliable of major powers.

KSingh · Post by **KSingh** » 15 Jul 2022 18:38

Pratyush wrote:
KSingh wrote:To see this as a ‘win’ is exactly how they want it to be perceived, they are doing you a favour by not punishing you for exercising your sovereignty?

This is predatory behaviour now they’ve set their sights on the Indian market
Absolutely, it's high time we build independence in all areas of technology. The US is the most unreliable of major powers.

The US only builds bridges to create dependancy and pressure points and India’s own history shows exactly how that can go

kit · Post by **kit** » 15 Jul 2022 23:33

https://www.azernews.az/region/185197.html

Turkey’s Yeni Shafak newspaper has criticized the U.S. double standards on exempting India from sanctions for purchasing Russian S-400 air defence systems.

The newspaper reports that the U.S.Senate is enacting a law to exclude India (which is as Turkey, bought the S-400 air defence system from Russia) from the Countering America's Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).

It was stressed that Washington imposed sanctions on its NATO ally Turkey for purchasing the S-400 systems while ignoring India for its security relationship with China.

.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 16 Jul 2022 05:54

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/154 ... XQo5BH3dcQ ---> CAATSA is a sterling symbol of America's attempts to extra-territorialize its jurisdiction. A 'waiver' to India is no 'favour'. Any new US sanctions on India would have destroyed the US-India relationship for good. As it is people are quietly admitting that COMCASA was a mistake.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 16 Jul 2022 07:30

This waiver is political kabuki between GOTUS and Indian Americans.
It has nothing to do with India.
CAATSA was enacted during Trump Admin by Democrats.
They wanted to wield a stick to wean India from Russian weapons.
At the same time, they wouldn't want to supply equivalent systems to defend India.
Now that the Biden admin is in place, the Democrats are stuck between a rock and hard place.
Hence this waiver.
But India already bought and took delivery of the S-400 systems.
And Biden had two meetings with India Quad and I2U2 where India is in the middle of the two seas.
If CAATSA is so important how did he have those meetings?
So what's going on?
I think this is all political kabuki for the November elections.
Carry on regardless.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 16 Jul 2022 08:18

Rakesh wrote:Quid Pro Quo for F-18SH? Click on first link below for video.

https://twitter.com/ShivAroor/status/15 ... ft_mvVXSyA ---> US provides India with CAATSA waiver. The Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) had remained on the table ever since India's S-400 missile deal with Russia. Waiver, pushed by @RepRoKhanna, affirms India’s independence in defence contracting.

https://twitter.com/DerekJGrossman/stat ... A6koRUIyuw ---> India is almost CAATSA-proof. Just need Senate to vote yes and President Biden to sign into law.

The Navy now will almost definitely get the shornet. IMHO. The iaf deal though will be rafale. Skepticism aside, this is a good development for India US ties

Khalsa · Post by **Khalsa** » 16 Jul 2022 11:18

Congratulations to the Navy for F-18SH and the Air Force will go the way of the Rafale with hopefully spinoff advantages for the Tejas Mk2 and AMCA engines.

Who knows maybe those P8-Is might be back in the shopping list too.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 16 Jul 2022 11:32

Cain Marko let's see.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 16 Jul 2022 11:51

Maybe you're right, Ramana ji. But I'm guessing that the US economy is getting badly hurt and nothing helps better than a war economy. Whatsmore, Hafta will probably be have to be paid sir. We are seeing what the bif ecosystem can do. If the coffers of the US MIC are kept flowing, they will give the current GOI a breather. That's my guess The next 5 years are crucial.

TBH this could work in Indias favor in a very major way.

Roop · Post by **Roop** » 18 Jul 2022 05:53

Cain Marko wrote:The Navy now will almost definitely get the shornet. IMHO. The iaf deal though will be rafale. Skepticism aside, this is a good development for India US ties

TBH this could work in India’s favor in a very major way.

Khalsa wrote:Congratulations to the Navy for F-18SH and the Air Force will go the way of the Rafale…

I agree with all these statements in terms of assessment of likely outcomes of these two competitions, as well as the assessment that it is likely to work out in India's favor overall.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 18 Jul 2022 06:27

Cain Marko wrote: The next 5 years are crucial.

Could not agree more

TBH this could work in Indias favor in a very major way.

ONLY IF India builds 6+ months of war reserves. Not otherwise.

So, if India is involved in a war, she has enough not to go begging. IF she is not involved, then she can sell each $1,000 shell for $10,000

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 18 Jul 2022 06:47

It is quite interesting of the US to first create a problem and now they will claim how US helped overcome the problem as a favor to India. Hope Indian leaders do not fall for this and order a bunch of American weapons as a reward. Having said that the 6 democrats who voted against the bill should be noted and the Indian-American community should ensure no support to them.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 18 Jul 2022 07:39

Exactly. I am not sure why we are linking the waiver, which remains an internal solution to an internal and self-created US problem, to our military purchases. If anything, this kind of kabuki should deter us even more from buying the FA-18 - the Tejas is dependent on the US as it is, why add to that? At least the IAF has other options if there are future US sanctions, but the Navy (air ops, at least) will be crippled in such a scenario. For that reason, it's imperative that we go with the Rafale-M and bloody double down on building our own engine.

kit · Post by **kit** » 18 Jul 2022 19:26

F 18 s are a bad idea for India. Period. IN is better off with Naval LCA and the TEDBF. PLEASE DONT SAY HAFTA !

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 18 Jul 2022 22:56

kit wrote:F 18 s are a bad idea for India. Period. IN is better off with Naval LCA and the TEDBF. PLEASE DONT SAY HAFTA !

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7625&p=2558513#p2558513
Joke Onlee

kit · Post by **kit** » 18 Jul 2022 23:41

Rakesh wrote:
kit wrote:F 18 s are a bad idea for India. Period. IN is better off with Naval LCA and the TEDBF. PLEASE DONT SAY HAFTA !
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7625&p=2558513#p2558513
Joke Onlee

Indeed . resurrecting the dead and dying

.. hope IN and MOD has better sense

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 18 Jul 2022 23:44

kit wrote:
Rakesh wrote: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7625&p=2558513#p2558513
Joke Onlee
Indeed. resurrecting the dead and dying .. hope IN and MOD has better sense

Kit, if F-18 is what the IN selects...then F-18 is what the IN must get.

Khalsa · Post by **Khalsa** » 19 Jul 2022 16:01

arshyam wrote:Exactly. I am not sure why we are linking the waiver, which remains an internal solution to an internal and self-created US problem, to our military purchases.

I am completely with you but i need you to put on the humorous hat and see it this way.

CAATSA waiver is an internal solution to CAATSA Problem, that was created by US Internally to punish its own allies who gave a damn.
PM, Modi has outstretched (the MRFA) to make CAATSA a laughing stock in front of the entire world and also make US eat humble pie.
You want our money .... stop imposing shape shifting rules and nonsense. If you want to then flex them around as per our requirements and be faced with accusations of duplicity that you accuse others of.

kit · Post by **kit** » 19 Jul 2022 17:47

OT but this is what the US is., just to put things in context.

CIA killed India’s nuclear physicist Homi Bhabha and Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri—confessions of Robert Crowley, the second in command of the CIA's Directorate of Operations (in charge of covert operations), as recorded in a book by Gregory Douglas.

https://www.reddit.com/r/IndiaSpeaks/co ... cist_homi/

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 21 Jul 2022 18:55

What now as US House votes for CAATSA waiver to India? Long road ahead, final call with President
https://theprint.in/diplomacy/india-has ... l/1040104/
15 July 2022