CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

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Rakesh
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

kit wrote:10 years down the line would India need Russia to the same extent as of now? Or for that matter the US ? ., economically maybe but major military hardware?

Almost all hardware hopefully would be indigenous., we need a separate thread on the next focus of indigenisation.,
Reliance on Russia will take decades to overcome. All three services have a large Russian kit that requires servicing and upgrades.

Even the S-400 will be upgraded. Even more S-400s will be acquired, budget permitting. The Russians are already pushing the S-500.

10 years? Who are the Americans kidding?

Blanket waiver for eternity or impose the sanctions. Do one of the two.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by nachiket »

Nobody knows what the strategic situation will be 10 years down the line including the Americans. That 10 year timeframe is to basically kick the can far enough down the line so as to ensure they don't have to re-evaluate the waiver repeatedly and keep justifying it.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

India's S-400 missile system problem
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-se ... 1636508479
10 Nov 2021
These are arguments of inertia and complacency, and they should carry no weight for the U.S. Vague assertions about future conduct, even accompanied by reduced reliance on major purchases from Russia, are insufficient to risk undermining our global efforts to counter the spread of Kremlin arms sales. Having New Delhi and Washington grow closer means just that, not equivocating or reversing field.
In such circumstances, any U.S. waiver for India’s S-400 purchases must come with clear conditions and requirements.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/suhasinih/status/14 ... 75367?s=20 ---> Point to remember: US CAATSA sanctions are unilateral, not UN-backed, and India is not obligated to follow them.

=======================

Major portion of the article below is behind a pay wall. Click on the link below to read the first para.

Explained | Will India be sanctioned for S-400 purchase?
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 481472.ece
15 November 2021
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by chetak »

nachiket wrote:Nobody knows what the strategic situation will be 10 years down the line including the Americans. That 10 year timeframe is to basically kick the can far enough down the line so as to ensure they don't have to re-evaluate the waiver repeatedly and keep justifying it.
but will Modi keep quiet and allow himself to be sanctioned

like I said on another thread, if the amerikis sanction us, amazon and walmart will be the very first to take a hit by being banned from operating in India, quickly followed by twitter and facebook and non ameriki replacements will come flooding in to fill the gaps

a sanction requires a robust response, otherwise, the whites will think that they have the god given right to sanction India for any and every reason.

they may not even be entertained in the SC because India would only have reacted to an unjust ameriki sanction designed to prevent India from exercising her freedom of choice in the purchase of weapons/systems in order to protect herself from her ill intentioned enemies.

burn the ameriki ass just once and they will stay clear as will the other whites.

just need to put out this banning amazon, walmart, twitter, and facebook from operating in India idea and either let it out via some tee vee channel discussion, newspaper report, or some thinktanki "study" with some obscure ameriki participants or let some relatively unknown Indian MP float this trial baloon

If the hans apps can be banned from India, a possible ban on amazon, walmart, twitter, and facebook from operating in India is very plausible option for Modi to exercise.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by ArjunPandit »

Rakesh wrote:India's S-400 missile system problem
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-se ... 1636508479
10 Nov 2021
These are arguments of inertia and complacency, and they should carry no weight for the U.S. Vague assertions about future conduct, even accompanied by reduced reliance on major purchases from Russia, are insufficient to risk undermining our global efforts to counter the spread of Kremlin arms sales. Having New Delhi and Washington grow closer means just that, not equivocating or reversing field.
In such circumstances, any U.S. waiver for India’s S-400 purchases must come with clear conditions and requirements.
john bolton needs to come and smell the real world. A lot of these oldies still harbour notions of India being the country still in the 60s-70s, with some techies and good at maths. US kept the paki snake alive for decades, let it have nukes and then funded them and let them royally screw itself in afghanistan ..and now are asking us..
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

Next on the shopping list...the S-500. Just because :)
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

Yet to decide on potential waiver of sanctions against India for S-400: US
https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-ne ... 96922.html
15 Nov 2021
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

They will likely give a waiver, as that is how it appears the trajectory is pointed towards. A number of US Senators had recently visited India and met with PM Modi. Just listen, smile, nod and provide chai biskoot.

But it will be business as usual for India. More Akulas are coming, Su-30 upgrade is on the cards and the best part...Putin is visiting India in December. If a waiver (or sanctions) comes, it would be best to do it during Putin's visit. It would be nice for optics.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

Rakesh wrote:Next on the shopping list...the S-500. Just because :)
https://twitter.com/aka_dpu/status/1459 ... 74371?s=20 ---> American’s are well aware of the fact that India signed the S-400 deal in 2016 before CAATSA came into existence, also India’s rising tensions & border disputes with the aggressive PLA is well known.

After acquiring the S-400, India should look forward to the upcoming S-500 deal.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

This tweet below is in response to a Global Times article from China, but equally applicable here. Especially for the John Bolton types. And it is from Jeff M Smith.

https://twitter.com/Cold_Peace_/status/ ... 80552?s=20 ---> If you think bullying is an effective tactic with India, it makes me wonder if you've ever visited the place, or met any Indians. They don't respond well to bullying.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/AmbJohnBolton/statu ... 28832?s=20 ---> India’s impending purchase of Russian S-400 air-defense systems raises numerous serious security concerns that include exposing US stealth tech to Russia and China. Action is needed to ensure India's future high-end defense purchases come from US allies.

Tweet below is in response to the tweet above.

https://twitter.com/Cold_Peace_/status/ ... 94690?s=20 ---> "Developing U.S. conditions for the [CAATSA] waiver is an urgent priority."

No. The CAATSA legislation already includes specific conditions that must be met for a waiver. Congress later reviewed, modified, and expanded those conditions. India meets them.

U.S. CAATSA Sanctions and India: Waivers and Geopolitical Considerations
https://www.heritage.org/asia/report/us ... iderations
By Jeff M Smith, 07 April 2021
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Anujan »

Rakesh wrote:India's S-400 missile system problem
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-se ... 1636508479
10 Nov 2021
These are arguments of inertia and complacency, and they should carry no weight for the U.S. Vague assertions about future conduct, even accompanied by reduced reliance on major purchases from Russia, are insufficient to risk undermining our global efforts to counter the spread of Kremlin arms sales. Having New Delhi and Washington grow closer means just that, not equivocating or reversing field.
In such circumstances, any U.S. waiver for India’s S-400 purchases must come with clear conditions and requirements.
The conditions and assurances must be 400% clear and iron clad, just like the assurances they gave India that F16s and AMRAAMs wont be used against India.

Also I am very afraid. What if US bans India from organizations like Nuclear Suppliers Group or Kicks India out of the permanent seat in UN security council?
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

Anujan wrote:The conditions and assurances must be 400% clear and iron clad, just like the assurances they gave India that F16s and AMRAAMs wont be used against India.

Also I am very afraid. What if US bans India from organizations like Nuclear Suppliers Group or Kicks India out of the permanent seat in UN security council?
Awesome! I love this :lol:
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/146 ... 59010?s=20 ---> CBMs to America are par for the course in the near term. America has very cleverly cemented that with CAATSA. But everything has a sell by date. And CAATSA will become the most counterproductive thing America has done vis a vis India within this decade.

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/146 ... 46405?s=20 ---> After America lifted post-Pokhran sanctions, India imported 12 AN/TPQ-37 Firefinder Weapon Locating Radars (WLRs) from Hughes. Have you ever seen this system tom-tommed? No. The reason is simple: due to lack of spares support the downtime for these radars has been 'rather high'.

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/146 ... 92034?s=20 ---> It is actually the indigenous Swathi WLR developed by DRDO's LRDE and built by BEL which is doing the needful along the line of control (LoC) right now instead of the American imports. A more mobile Swathi-2 will do service along the line of actual control (LAC).
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

US expresses 'concern' over delivery of Russia's S-400 missile system to India
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 736374.cms
16 Nov 2021
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Cyrano »

Looks like the cat saw and blinked !
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

Cyrano wrote:Looks like the cat saw and blinked !
At this stage, either scenario ends up with India on top.

Imposing Sanctions - Will drive India right back to Russia and that is not something that the US wants to see happen.

Not Imposing Sanctions - Will continue with business as usual and following the Multipolar Alignment strategy (called Non-Alignment during the Nehru & Indira era). Do business with everyone, including Russia.

CAATSA is a brilliant law, but there are work arounds as Turkey, China and India have proven. Just imagine if India went ahead with the S-500.

What would be nice is (if those Predator drones are acquired) to do a photo shoot of the Predator flying over a S-400 battery :mrgreen:
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

A must read article. Beautifully written. Very happy to see India in a position of strength.

Head-on | Strategic self-interest: India’s geopolitical levers of power
https://www.firstpost.com/india/head-on ... 42551.html
17 November 2021
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/seemasirohi/status/ ... 93376?s=20 ---> My Letter Form Washington: Signals on CAATSA are positive. Sword of US sanctions on India likely to return to its scabbard. Three "C" will determine Biden's decision: Concerns, Considerations & China. Plus there's @tedcruz CRUCIAL bill designed to protect Quad.

A CRUCIAL Let-Off?
https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN ... &mode=text#
10 Nov 2021
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

I have never seen Vijainder K Thakur this mad. Wow! I have edited out the expletives.
Rakesh wrote:India's S-400 missile system problem
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-se ... 1636508479
10 Nov 2021
https://twitter.com/vkthakur/status/145 ... 30243?s=20 ---> John Bolton ridiculously claims that India's procurement of the S-400 system from Russia compromises America’s stealth technology & interoperability between the two nations! How?

https://twitter.com/vkthakur/status/145 ... 52837?s=20 ---> He wonders why India should buy a system already procured by China "risking that Beijing’s cyber warriors." Really? Why then is Lockheed pitching the F-16 to India having sold them to Pakistan? Similar systems are not required to be interconnected!

https://twitter.com/vkthakur/status/145 ... 56800?s=20 ---> Bolton dismisses India's contention that the India-Russia S-400 deal preceded the CAATSA legislation as "arguments of inertia and complacency," illustrating how US narrative often substitutes the complete absence of logic with banal verbiage.

https://twitter.com/vkthakur/status/145 ... 54373?s=20 ---> A recent statement by a Russian official alluding to the strong logic & imperative for India to ultimately upgrade to the S-500 system, put Bolton on the brink of an epileptic fit! :rotfl:

https://twitter.com/vkthakur/status/145 ... 15809?s=20 ---> Shamelessly, even while admitting that the US has no intent to treat QUAD as a politico military alliance, Bolton asks India to clearly enunciate its defense-procurement strategies? What visions of imperial grandeur!

https://twitter.com/vkthakur/status/145 ... 70402?s=20 ---> Citing India's participation in the QAUD, Bolton imperiously states, "Washington should at least require an agreed-upon timeline and metrics to reduce Indian purchases of sophisticated Russian weapons systems."

https://twitter.com/vkthakur/status/145 ... 89441?s=20 ---> Finally, Bolton dangles a Shylock carrot - India's enrollment in an AUKUS like arrangement! What a reward! China wants some of our barren territory, while the US is trying to Shylock our entire country's sovereignty! Go f--- yourself Mr. John Bolton!

https://twitter.com/vkthakur/status/145 ... 49472?s=20 ---> Today India is self sufficient in missile technology, including seekers; cryogenic propulsion, submarine nuclear power plants, ramjet & solid fuel ducted ramjets & hypersonic propulsion because of Soviet/Russian ToT, Collaboration with the West didn't lead to any self sufficiency.

https://twitter.com/vkthakur/status/145 ... 26016?s=20 ---> Weapon systems from the US come with too many strings, involve no ToT, and are too expensive for India to afford in adequate quantity. By forcing India to quit weapon procurements from Russia, the likes of John Bolton want to weaken India to a US vassal status. So F--- Y--- John Bolton!
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by ramana »

India is going to buy 30 Predators. That will test CAATSA or limp!
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by ramana »

Rakesh Try to dig Bolton socioeconomic background.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Pratyush »

Bolton was the NSA for Trump. But quit when the orange man decided not to attack Iran over some drone shoot down.

Since then he has been the darling of Anti Trump resistance. But he has not real influence and nor is he likely to have any influence with a future Republican administration.

Having said that, every big power wants India to be vassal because an India that is a vassal for them makes their global dominance unassailable for the near future.

In light of that, it becomes important to have Indian defence capacity dependent on what is being sold by the big power.

But that is a trap for India at a different level. By telling our MOD that they don't have to make any difficult decio. They don't have to fund weapons development. Every thing they need is available for purchase.

The down side of this is that it makes India perpetually run after the next shining weapons system. While neglecting sufficient investment in domestic options.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

ramana wrote:India is going to buy 30 Predators. That will test CAATSA or limp!
Good observation. I believe that is what the DAC and CCS are waiting on.

Apply the sanctions and the Predator drones will go out the window.
ramana wrote:Rakesh Try to dig Bolton socioeconomic background.
I will certainly look that up.

He is the quintessential old dog Republican. A draft dodger, neoconservative, Pax Americana, cold war relic, war hawk. In his own words, "I confess I had no desire to die in a Southeast Asian rice paddy. I considered the war in Vietnam already lost." But yet he will vociferously trumpet American exceptionalism. The hypocrisy is startling. His neocon buddies are folks like Dick Cheney (another draft dodger), the late Don Rumsfeld who all share a similar worldview. Cheney famously said, when asked about Vietnam, "I had other priorities in the '60s than military service."

CAATSA sanctions will only hurt America in the long term. After two needless wars and subsequent inglorious exits, the rest of the world now sees the cracks in American exceptionalism. And empires rise and fall - Pax Britannica lasted from 1815 to 1914. Sitting in Congress and in Washington DC insulates one from the rest of the world. US policy makers are spoon feeding members of Congress on what they want to see happen, but not what is necessarily the reality on the ground. And the end result is a law called CAATSA. John Bolton is representative of that. So are many in institutions like the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and others.

What EAM Jaishankar said about America is so true ---> "I think the U.S. really has to learn to work ... with a more multipolar world, with more plurilateral arrangements, go beyond alliances with which really it has grown up over the last two generations." While US exceptionalism will not hold true any longer, if America wants to remain as a viable player on the international stage it is best that they follow EAM Jaishankar's advice. Because whether America likes it or not, alienating India - the only viable player in the Quad - runs counterproductive to their own agenda.

Via CAATSA, the US tried the Lyndon Johnson Treatment on India. They have been doing that since 2018. It failed spectacularly. This is the LBJ Treatment ---> "Its tone could be supplication, accusation, cajolery, exuberance, scorn, tears, complaint, and the hint of threat. It was all of these together. It ran the gamut of human emotions."

America can no longer expect to throw her weight around and have nations blindly follow. That day is over.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by ldev »

The CAATSA bill was passed 98-2 in the US Senate in 2017. Donald Trump signed it because his veto would have been overridden as the 2/3rd majority threshold was passed. But he called it " deeply flawed". Think about it, what would get virtually all the Republican and Democrat Senators to unite on passing such a bill given that during Trump's time in office the two parties were deeply polarized on every issue. It's not that they all hated Russia because almost all Republican Senators voted en bloc to stop Trump from being impeached on the Russia collusion charge. So what caused them to protect Trump from the Russia collusion charge and yet vote for CAATSA? There is a reason for this.....which cannot be spelled out..... And it has got nothing to do with India at all....

It's the US Senate that passed the CAATSA bill and now some members of the US Senate want to introduce another bill waiving CAATSA sanctions on the QUAD countries - in reality the only QUAD country affected is India. It is only appropriate that the Senate which has caused this problem is also the body that solves this problem now that they have realized the unintended consequences of CAATSA. I don't think any US administration whether Democrat or Republican would be in favor of a bill such as CAATSA as it restricts the President's ability to conduct foreign policy.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

For a law that has nothing to do with India, US lawmakers have been desperately trying since 2018 to have India not acquire the S-400 platform and using the CAATSA law as the legal excuse.

Below is a video from 2018 about potential difficulties in the sale of armed drones to India due to the S-400 purchase. Today, that very package of Predator drones is being willingly sold despite the acquisition of the S-400. The DAC and CCS is waiting post the 2+2 meeting happening in DC at the end of this month or early next month. If the signals are positive, the deal will be approved. If not, likely no deal.

Welcome to the multipolar world, with plurilateral arrangements. What cannot be spelt out is best left in Washington and neither is India concerned about that. As India has repeatedly conveyed to the United States ---> India is only legally required to follow the laws of the United Nations. CAATSA is not a UN law. I believe that message will have finally hit home, if and when the deal for those drones are signed. It takes two hands to clap, so any deal on drones will have to have two partners willing to agree to that deal. But there will be no quid pro quo.

What the US Senate does and does not do with regards to CAATSA is largely inconsequential to India. If sanctions are imposed, it will be America's loss. If sanctions are not imposed, it will be business as usual. Either way, it matters little to India. I believe the CRUCIAL act has largely proven that. Whether a waiver comes or not, the S-400 will get operationalized. So will additional nuclear powered submarines arrive, frigates, infantry weapons, fighter aircraft and whatever else the GOI & the Services wish to acquire from Russia. Good luck with CAATSA.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Cyrano »

Some indian lifafa commentators are writing as if India is "violating" CAATSA and are wishing sanctions upon us and saying we should brace for them. Sheesh... Can't they see the tide has turned and India is in a buyer's market with the fattest wad of bills bursting out of its back pocket?!
Or have they eaten too much Alfalfa out of their lifafas?
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Pratyush »

Cyrano wrote:Some indian lifafa commentators are writing as if India is "violating" CAATSA and are wishing sanctions upon us and saying we should brace for them. Sheesh... Can't they see the tide has turned and India is in a buyer's market with the fattest wad of bills bursting out of its back pocket?!
Or have they eaten too much Alfalfa out of their lifafas?
Even I want CAASTA sanctions against India.

More importantly a savage kick in the nether regions of the Indian strategic establishment. So that they finally decide to spend the money and remove the bottleneck from the achievement of self sufficiency for the Indian armed forces.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Cyrano »

US sanctioning India has wider ramifications than just indirecting helping Indian MIC get stronger (which we all want). Careful what you wish for.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Pratyush »

I don't see any major problems for India post CAASTA sanctions.

But I can be quite myopic in certain aspects.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by kit »

CAATSA would have provided a good impetus to our domestic programs all across the board !!.. the fruits of which would be an enabler for superpower status. I really dont like their "exemptions" what so ever
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by k prasad »

Cyrano wrote:US sanctioning India has wider ramifications than just indirecting helping Indian MIC get stronger (which we all want). Careful what you wish for.
The last time the US imposed sanctions and technology denial on us, Babus and military alike were forced into the unnerving situation of (can you believe it) getting stuff developed indigenously. And in that time, we came up with (an incomplete list) the WLR, the Tejas FBW FCS, Ring Laser Gyros, Semi-Cryogenic Engines,... all of which spurred a large number of private subcontractors who were able to start providing components for these.

At the same time, the sanctions didn't impact Indian IT industry; if anything, the period from 1998 to 2001 were the boom years for the IT cos. US Sanctions will at most impact the Indian govt, but the likelihood of them sanctioning Indian industry is low - that's something they reserve for their 'enemies', aka NoKo, Cuba, and Iran - countries they can bully without suffering much damage in return. India is NOT one of those, and this government has shown a willingness to impose reciprocal punishment, rather than simply dangling carrots of reciprocity.

At this point, US imposing sanctions on india will hurt them even more than it will us. Not only will they lose any possibility of gaining us as a strategic partner for the next decade at least, but it'll push us closer to Russia. So apart from losing potentially billions of dollars of arms sales, they'll also lose the only real strategic counterbalance to China in the IOR.

Then again, US foreign policy is famously consistent in creating circumstances ripe for blowback, so who knows.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by chetak »

nachiket wrote:Nobody knows what the strategic situation will be 10 years down the line including the Americans. That 10 year timeframe is to basically kick the can far enough down the line so as to ensure they don't have to re-evaluate the waiver repeatedly and keep justifying it.
The ameriki deep state wants to get a permanent grip on India's jugular and lock it down during Modi's tenure.

the amerikis need to wean India away from the russkis (because India gets a strategic boost from the russki weapons in her arsenal), even if the danger to India increases via the cheenis so that the unreasonable cheeni dragon can be fed either by arm twisting India or it can be fed by the amerikis themselves by making concessions that India is unable to make because the options do not exist.

either way, India will be used as a tethered goat in shikar or will be halaled when the cheeni demand gets too strident

That way, a defanged India, mostly dependant on ameriki weapons and supply chains, thus easily swayed and manipulated so that they largely serve ameriki interests. No other weapon supplier country has asked or sought such a mish mash of alphabet soup agreements with India, essentially restricting her strategic options and shackling her responses to regional threats and extra regional interests like in the pacific or even the "gelf" for that matter

No one, not the amerikis, cheenis, the russkis or even the EU for that matter want an India that is stridently independent in foreign policy, trade and able to influence global changes that will assuredly come with her growing economic and defence might.

They need the traditional jaichands and mir jafars to advance their interests, gaddars who, in the dark of the night, will silently open the gates to allow the enemy to enter and strike when the time is right.

If the govt changes and the commies get themselves a foothold which they most likely will, they will get zilch and India will go back to kissing cheeni butts per the MOUs signed, undoubtedly by more than one political party for sure..

yes, no one knows for sure what may happen 10-30 years down the line but the amerikis are working towards a plan while India is merely coasting along admiring the passing scenery, naively trusting its all to dharma and karma
SSridhar
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by SSridhar »

Anujan wrote:Also I am very afraid. What if US bans India from organizations like Nuclear Suppliers Group or Kicks India out of the permanent seat in UN security council?
:rotfl:
AkshaySG
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by AkshaySG »

For me any ramifications of CAATSA or other sanctions on India are entirely dependent on who is running the country at the time and in the near future.

If the present establishment continues then they will ensure that we maximize the development and usage of indigenous systems and we will see long term gains for short term pains

However if the CAATSA sanctions come and the government changes or becomes weaker then you get into a situation where they will have to curtail many things and play right into US hands just to get out of these sanctions. That could be the death knell of several indigenous projects right then and there.

I understand why several people want us to be sanctioned because it will act as a wake up call but to me that is no guarantee, We could very well go back into that 2000's mindset of defense deals again.
ramana
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by ramana »

Rakesh wrote:
Rakesh wrote:Next on the shopping list...the S-500. Just because :)
https://twitter.com/aka_dpu/status/1459 ... 74371?s=20 ---> American’s are well aware of the fact that India signed the S-400 deal in 2016 before CAATSA came into existence, also India’s rising tensions & border disputes with the aggressive PLA is well known.

After acquiring the S-400, India should look forward to the upcoming S-500 deal.
And S-400 is a defensive weapon system for India.
China is the major competitor against which needs this defense
And the threat increase due to Quad.

IOW the US wants India to be at mercy of China as Quad ramps up pressure on China in the East.

CAATSA is a US problem just like Hyde Act.


And as for S-500 and beyond India needs to develop adequate measures for hypersonic weapons from anywhere.
titash
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by titash »

AkshaySG wrote:For me any ramifications of CAATSA or other sanctions on India are entirely dependent on who is running the country at the time and in the near future.

If the present establishment continues then they will ensure that we maximize the development and usage of indigenous systems and we will see long term gains for short term pains

However if the CAATSA sanctions come and the government changes or becomes weaker then you get into a situation where they will have to curtail many things and play right into US hands just to get out of these sanctions. That could be the death knell of several indigenous projects right then and there.

I understand why several people want us to be sanctioned because it will act as a wake up call but to me that is no guarantee, We could very well go back into that 2000's mindset of defense deals again.
I think the Indian genie is out of its bottle and it's not going to get back in again; no one who's tasted freedom wants to get back into shackles again.

The Indian people have had a mindset transformation over the last 20 odd years wherein there're asking questions that would have been unthinkable 25 years ago:
(1) Why is it ok for a small country with 250 million people like you to have nuclear weapons but not a big 1 billion (plus) sized country like me?
(2) Why should you drive a big gas guzzling SUV and live in a big wasteful suburban house but want me to drive a bicycle and use kerosene lamps at night because of "climate change"
(3) similarly...why should you have defences against stealth & hypersonics, but not me?

It's irrelevant whether or not CAATSA is implemented. Strategic Autonomy has been our guiding mantra for the last 70 years...even during the most corrupt and pliable Congress regimes we had DAE, ISRO, Agni, Param, LCA Tejas...India will not give up Russian friendship and weapons just because the US wants it to be so. CAATSA = colonial gunboat diplomacy by another name, and the PMO / MEA / MoD knows it
Manish_Sharma
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Manish_Sharma »

Say Caz%$zo to CAATSAW

TWITTER


India moved closer to US, did this stop China from provoking India at the borders - No.

India elevated Quad, did this stop China from flexing muscles or bullying neighbors - No.

Does China fears Japan or Australia - No.

Why ?

Becaz :

1) China holds trillions of US debt, funding Wall Street, US media/think tanks & Hollywood, US would NEVER jeopardize own economic interests - China knows this & doesn't fear US.

2) Both Japan & Australia are non-nuke states & can't do anything without US permission.

Then what India should do to deter China or what China really fears ?

China fears India-Russia alliance.


Both India & Russia have nukes & shares land border with China - China fears this formidable "two-front war nightmare".

But, is Russia interested in this ?

Yes, Russia has legitimate concerns regarding both China & US.

So-called US-China rivalry turning the World into a 'bipolar' one & making Russia irrelevant.

US provoking Europe, a vital consumer of Russian oil/gas, against Russia & US led sanctions pushed Russia towards China.

Russia is worried about this economic "over dependence" on China.

China taking advantage of Russia's economic weakness & encroaching on Russia's sphere of influence i.e Central Asia/Eurasia.

And, sooner or later, China would also reclaim Vladivostok - Russia fears this future.

That's why Russia invited India to SCO, staying 'neutral' in SCS dispute & continues to sell arms to China's enemies like India & Vietnam - to balance China.

Both India & Russia want to protect their respective "strategic autonomy" & prefers a 'multipolar' World & Asia.

But would Russia go against China to jeopardize own economic interests ?

Russia is NOT economically 'interconnected' with China as much as US is with China.

Russia's primary market is EU.

European energy & Asian arms market would be sufficient to sustain $1.5T Russian economy.

Conclusion :

India-Russia strategic partnership is as much important as India-US relationship is to balance China or even MORE IMPORTANT becaz India-Russia partnership enjoys a higher level of 'trust' than India-US or Russia-China relationships.

https://twitter.com/chasing_highs/statu ... VJ3gA&s=19
Mort Walker
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Mort Walker »

^^^I think you could spin this both ways. Russia may be more beholden to China than you may think.

Russia exports over $50 billion/year to China and imports over $55/billion. This is in goods alone and doesn't include energy, and the volume is only increasing. Russia-India goods trade volume is less than $11 billion/year including everything and the volume is stagnant taking into inflation. Russia has far more reason to listen to China and wants India to supplement their exports.
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