CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

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Cyrano
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Cyrano »

Its a good thing Sherman delegated CAATSA upwards to Blinken and Biden. It will be clear to India where the CS and POTUS stand, offering them no scope for deniability !
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 05696?s=20 ---> Report: Due to China giving the HQ-9 SAM system to Pakistan, US will now issue CAATSA waiver to India for S-400 purchase from Russia.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Cyrano »

LoL! The proverbial fig leaf was found by the creative amreekis !
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

If the above news item is true....then it appears the Amreeka was all bark and no bite on this CAATSA threat :)
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by brar_w »

Is there a link to the report that the WolfpackIN is citing as a source?
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

None that I saw, but he is usually on point. This is the latest on CAATSA...

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 45185?s=20 ---> Just In: Top US Senators incl. Chair of Senate Intel committee request Prez Joe Biden to issue a CAATSA sanctions waiver for India.

Warner, Cornyn Urge Biden Administration to Waive CAATSA Sanctions Against India
https://www.warner.senate.gov/public/in ... inst-india
26 Oct 2021
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by nachiket »

kit wrote:
Rakesh wrote: https://twitter.com/DesiEscobar07/statu ... 86083?s=20 ---> Despite CAATSA threat, Turkey to work with Russia on jet engines, warships, submarines, and space: President Erdogan
They are already sanctioned , so what more now ?!
Is Turkey under full sanctions due to the S-400 deal or did they just get kicked out of the F-35 program?
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by brar_w »

Targeted sanctions were applied in late 2020 / early 2021 while they were kicked out of the F-35 much before that. Interestingly, they’ve also requested F-16 upgrades and perhaps even new F-16s but nothing yet on whether those deals will even be considered or brought to Congress.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

Erdogan wants S-400, but then he also wants to upgrade his F-16s. Wow, talk about double dipping :lol:
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by kit »

Rakesh wrote:Erdogan wants S-400, but then he also wants to upgrade his F-16s. Wow, talk about double dipping :lol:
Uncle is ok with it., upgrade the 16s for the billions invested in the F35 program
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by nachiket »

brar_w wrote:Targeted sanctions were applied in late 2020 / early 2021 while they were kicked out of the F-35 much before that. Interestingly, they’ve also requested F-16 upgrades and perhaps even new F-16s but nothing yet on whether those deals will even be considered or brought to Congress.
What does "targeted" mean here? Can they still get support and spares for their current US sourced equipment (leaving aside upgrades/new equipment)? If India doesn't get a waiver we need to know what exactly to expect.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by brar_w »

nachiket wrote:
brar_w wrote:Targeted sanctions were applied in late 2020 / early 2021 while they were kicked out of the F-35 much before that. Interestingly, they’ve also requested F-16 upgrades and perhaps even new F-16s but nothing yet on whether those deals will even be considered or brought to Congress.
What does "targeted" mean here? Can they still get support and spares for their current US sourced equipment (leaving aside upgrades/new equipment)? If India doesn't get a waiver we need to know what exactly to expect.
As per law these would have been targeted to their defense sector. One would have to dig through the text to see which entities and individuals are included.
kit wrote: Uncle is ok with it.,
That remains to be seen. First the current administration has to take up those requests and make an internal decision. Then it has to be presented to Congress where it can always be held up if enough members ovject.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

nachiket wrote: What does "targeted" mean here? Can they still get support and spares for their current US sourced equipment (leaving aside upgrades/new equipment)? If India doesn't get a waiver we need to know what exactly to expect.
Don't expect a similar set of sanctions - if it comes - which Turkey got, to apply to India. The exact nature of sanctions would be different, from one country to the next.

But any sanction - mild or severe - will have significant political consequences. The US will drive India right back into Putin's arms - a scenario best avoided by the US.

From the US perspective...it is best to grant the waiver, but that will require India to conduct a major purchase (i.e. fighters) in the future. Whether India will bend to that pressure remains to be seen.

Also, how many waivers will the US grant to India? Four more Krivaks are coming, one (or two more) Akulas are coming, Su-30MKIs are to be upgraded....how many waivers can the US really afford to give?
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by kit »

brar_w wrote:[

As per law these would have been targeted to their defense sector. One would have to dig through the text to see which entities and individuals are included.
kit wrote: Uncle is ok with it.,
That remains to be seen. First the current administration has to take up those requests and make an internal decision. Then it has to be presented to Congress where it can always be held up if enough members ovject.
couldnt find the original link but
https://www.dailysabah.com/business/def ... al-request
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by brar_w »

kit wrote:
brar_w wrote:[

As per law these would have been targeted to their defense sector. One would have to dig through the text to see which entities and individuals are included.



That remains to be seen. First the current administration has to take up those requests and make an internal decision. Then it has to be presented to Congress where it can always be held up if enough members ovject.
couldnt find the original link but
https://www.dailysabah.com/business/def ... al-request
That was a couple of weeks ago. Yesterday, they threatened to kick out the US ambassador to Turkey along with several others from Europe.

Turkey basically wants that their contribution to the F-35 program be applied towards new F-16s and upgrades to its existing F-16s. That may or may not fly with either the administration or Congress and Lockheed for its part built the first batch of aircraft to them and even bought parts from Turkish suppliers to discharge its obligations so that matter is under dispute. Suffice to say that the path for them to get new F-16s is not going to be an easy one even if the current administration approves it (Turkey still is a NATO member and the US still maintains a strategic base there).

http://reut.rs/3n9rROG
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Cain Marko »

Rakesh wrote:From the US perspective...it is best to grant the waiver, but that will require India to conduct a major purchase (i.e. fighters) in the future. Whether India will bend to that pressure remains to be seen.

Also, how many waivers will the US grant to India? Four more Krivaks are coming, one (or two more) Akulas are coming, Su-30MKIs are to be upgraded....how many waivers can the US really afford to give?
My guess is that India will sweeten the pot.... They should push for carrier based f35s for the 2 viks..
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by brar_w »

F-35Bs won’t fit on the lifts of either of INs carriers. F-35C won’t be able to take off with a significant load and fuel.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

kit wrote:
Rakesh wrote:Erdogan wants S-400, but then he also wants to upgrade his F-16s. Wow, talk about double dipping :lol:
Uncle is ok with it., upgrade the 16s for the billions invested in the F35 program
kit...see the link below.

US lawmakers express concern over reports of potential Turkey F-16 purchase
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/unit ... 6-purchase
27 October 2021

============================

Just because the US administration may be behind a sale, that in no way translates into reality. What one administration agrees to, is no guarantee that the next administration will follow. What one administration agrees to, is no guarantee that the Congress is behind that sale as well. And if the Congress is in the hands of the opposite party in relation to the White House, good luck! The GOP used to have the moniker of the party of "Ideas", but now they are the party of "No". The Democrats are no different. There is a serious disconnect with the progressive wing of the Democratic party and the conservative wing of the Democratic party. The system of checks and balances set out by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution is now used as a tool of political vendetta against each other. The political system in the US is truly broken and the country is teetering on the edge of civil war thanks to the Stable Genius aka Donald Trump.

Just imagine if the IAF had gone for the F-16 in the SE fighter contest. The IAF - as illustrated in the CAG report - is justly concerned about inducting an American bird in large numbers. Tomorrow, if the IAF wanted to order additional batteries of the S-400 - just as Turkey is doing right now - along with upgrading those F-16s, what stops the US from saying no to the upgrade and yes to the sanctions? As politically damaging as it will be, it is best for the US to apply the sanctions NOW and then work on the relationship. As the saying goes....when you hit rock bottom, the only way to go is up. The other option is to eliminate the law altogether, but I don't see that happening. This "my-way-or-the-highway" strategy that America is using is not going to work. To paraphrase Foreign Minister Jaishankar, the US needs to look beyond alliances and look at partnerships. The US is vital to India's multipolar alignment strategy, but not at the expense of abandoning old partners.

This argument that some on BRF put forth (well, India bought P-8Is, AH-64s, CH-47s, etc...so there is no problem!) is also not going to pass muster with the IAF. When you induct 114 MRFA, that will represent a significant portion of your fighter fleet. Apart from the numbers issue, it will also represent the "cutting edge" or the "tip of the spear" of the IAF's ORBAT for the next 1 - 2 decades. From the IAF's perspective, to put that tip or edge in the hands of a politically unreliable country is not a wise thing to do.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

India is not sitting on the geopolitical fence
https://warontherocks.com/2021/10/india ... cal-fence/
By Tanvi Madan, 27 October 2021
This does not mean that Delhi likes all aspects of American power. For instance, Washington’s use of sanctions has constrained India’s options and decision-making space vis-à-vis Iran and Russia. And while today there’s not much of a China debate in India, there continues to be a debate on how far and fast to cooperate with the United States.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

Indian military cannot operate effectively without Russian supplied equipment: CRS report
https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/natio ... ort-330341
27 October 2021
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Pratyush »

Rakesh wrote:India is not sitting on the geopolitical fence
https://warontherocks.com/2021/10/india ... cal-fence/
By Tanvi Madan, 27 October 2021
This does not mean that Delhi likes all aspects of American power. For instance, Washington’s use of sanctions has constrained India’s options and decision-making space vis-à-vis Iran and Russia. And while today there’s not much of a China debate in India, there continues to be a debate on how far and fast to cooperate with the United States.
This is a surprisingly well thought out article from an author who is primarily focused on furthering the American interests.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/NasserAlsaadiQA/sta ... 70735?s=20 --->

Turkey: NATO Ally = Sanctions for the S400
India: Not NATO Ally...
Also US: India is a strategic ally and the case is different.....
:lol:

===========================

Moral of the Story = Do not get into a military alliance with the United States.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by ldev »

Vijainder K Thakur
@vkthakur
·
Oct 27
India should make the repeal of CAATSA, or its applicability to India, a precondition to arms procurement from the US, else the threat of sanctions will forever hang as a Damocles sword to govern Indian behavior, making us a vassal, not a regional power!
https://twitter.com/vkthakur/status/1453557249465479171

And there is a precedent for this, not in relation to weapons trade but regular international trade when in 1999 Clinton removed the annual certification requirement of the Most Favored Nation status for China and gave it permanent MFN status. The justification was that it would give US companies confidence to invest in and trade with China. A very similar case can be made for a permanent CAATSA exemption for India if the US is serious about increasing weapons trade with India.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by brar_w »

LINK
WASHINGTON, D.C. – U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Todd Young (R-Ind.), and Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) this week introduced the “Circumspectly Reducing Unintended Consequences Impairing Alliances and Leadership Act of 2021” (CRUCIAL Act), which creates a 10-year exemption for member countries of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue—Australia, Japan, and India—from U.S. sanctions passed in 2017 that would undermine unity against China.

The CRUCIAL Act would prohibit the President from imposing sanctions in the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) against our closest regional allies in the Indo-Pacific.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by kit »

So if "CRUCIAL" goes though CAATSA would indeed be an oxymoron :mrgreen:

I really doubt the India after a decade would care anything about these alphabet legislations!!
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

The loss of billions of dollars worth of deals is worrisome to the US political class.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Mort Walker »

The US defense industries have the leading edge on surveillance and communication systems. Over the decades, the investment in science & technology by government, academia and industry puts it head and shoulders above other countries. GoI knows this and is interested in acquisitions of such systems. It also helps that this effort is supported by both parties and the opposition party is leading the way to get India exemptions.

Ted Cruz was present in the "Howdy Modi" event in 2019 in Houston, TX. The Indian community lobby has been very effective like the Jewish diaspora in this instance. I remember Ted Cruz giving positive interviews with Indian TV channels during this event.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by NRao »

chetak
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by chetak »

It's a fait accompli which they are beginning to recognize in a rather belated fashion. They have realized that the use of CAATSA against a country like India is not only counterproductive but can also have serious repercussions in terms of a massive blowback setting back diplomatic relations and also highlight the lack of trust that the amerikis have faced in their often contentious relations with India

India has multiple options and rather free access to purchasing israeli, russian and french systems and we have, time and again, been proven a responsible power, even in the face of very grave provocations. To give up alternate sources for weapon systems would be suicidal for a country like India.

Besides, the amerikis have not revealed all their cards yet and what the (India hating) ameriki deep state may have planned out for India is anybody's guess

This is a sly game being played by the amerikis to get out of an embarrassing and entirely self created situation because they well know that India will not back down

we don't take nor do we beg for ameriki aid like the pakis. The hold that the amerikis have over India is lessened by that much.

we have started to forcefully regulate the wild west type of ameriki big businesses like amazon, walmart, big data like google, facebook, twitter, and what have you and bring them all under the ambit of India's laws.

brexit like algorithms and cambridge analytica like information warfare resources are already proven cyber weapons that have been hot forged, tested, refined, adapted, and successfully deployed in far more sophisticated ecosystems than India.

we have also taken on the hans without any assurances of support from the amerikis or even the EU and nor are we looking for the same from these guys.

Once the hold of the filthy commies, congis, woke fifth columnists and the BIF over the country lessened as also loosened, India has taken off and her true potential is now beginning to unnerve the once great economic and military who only saw India as a tame, slothful and unambitious third world country, ready to cyber invaded and primed to be exploited once again by the ideological descendants of the east India company, just like the rapacious amerikis trading shiny beads to exploit and cheat the red Indians out of their resources.

India's management of the pandemic as well as the economy has left the whiteys and the yellow peril virtually stupefied.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Pratyush »

I will be deeply disappointed if India recieved a waiver for purchasing Russian maal.

I want sanctions.

In fact I say, let's go sanctions!!!

To be sung to the tune of, "let's go Brandon". :mrgreen:
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by srin »

^^^ We need to be careful what we wish for.

I think there will be brief shooting war with China in the next few years, and we need to be prepared in the short-term. Sanctions hurt in the short-term while they are beneficial in the long term.

I'm quite worried about Tejas orders due to F404s, P17As due to LM2500 and the MR-60's so desperately needed for anti-sub warfare. We don't have anything equivalent to replace them for the next 5-6 years.

Time for our diplomats to earn their pay.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by chetak »

srin wrote:^^^ We need to be careful what we wish for.

I think there will be brief shooting war with China in the next few years, and we need to be prepared in the short-term. Sanctions hurt in the short-term while they are beneficial in the long term.

I'm quite worried about Tejas orders due to F404s, P17As due to LM2500 and the MR-60's so desperately needed for anti-sub warfare. We don't have anything equivalent to replace them for the next 5-6 years.

Time for our diplomats to earn their pay.

Cometh the hour, cometh the man, so have faith because cometh the emergency, cometh the weapon system and it may not necessarily be ameriki onlee.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

chetak wrote:It's a fait accompli...
Fantastic post. Kudos to you. +108!
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 31492?s=20 ---> "If after 2033-2034, India is still going to Russia, and is not taking steps to deepen ties with the Quad, the conversation will be very different", says senior US Senate aide on US pushing for CAATSA sanctions waiver to India now.

========================

Where Wolfpack got the above tweet from.

U.S. Senators introduce amendment supporting CAATSA sanctions waiver for India
https://www.thehindu.com/news/internati ... 296514.ece
“So I think I the consideration is that 2033-2034 and beyond, if India is still going to Russia, and is not taking steps to deepen ties with the Quad, I think that's when it would be a different conversation,” the aide said. “So I do think there needs to be steps taken over time.”
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by chetak »

Rakesh wrote:
chetak wrote:It's a fait accompli...
Fantastic post. Kudos to you. +108!

:)
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by KSingh »

Cain Marko wrote:
Rakesh wrote:From the US perspective...it is best to grant the waiver, but that will require India to conduct a major purchase (i.e. fighters) in the future. Whether India will bend to that pressure remains to be seen.

Also, how many waivers will the US grant to India? Four more Krivaks are coming, one (or two more) Akulas are coming, Su-30MKIs are to be upgraded....how many waivers can the US really afford to give?
My guess is that India will sweeten the pot.... They should push for carrier based f35s for the 2 viks..
1) No one in India has asked for the F-35 (yet)
2) Where will eh money come from? IN is already cutting back their procurements
3) S400 explicitly takes F-35 off the table for India for good. Americans are terrified that the S400 will detect and track the F-35 and that will be added to the S400's threat library and make it's way back to Russia (a fair assumption I suppose).
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by KSingh »

srin wrote:^^^ We need to be careful what we wish for.

I think there will be brief shooting war with China in the next few years, and we need to be prepared in the short-term. Sanctions hurt in the short-term while they are beneficial in the long term.

I'm quite worried about Tejas orders due to F404s, P17As due to LM2500 and the MR-60's so desperately needed for anti-sub warfare. We don't have anything equivalent to replace them for the next 5-6 years.

Time for our diplomats to earn their pay.
Sanctions that cripple the Indian military to the point that India is severely hampered in a shooting war thanks to F404 LM2500, C17s, P8s, AH-64s etc all becoming u/s would harden the Indian public and political psyche for the next 100 years and likely be the springboard that seems India go full IDDM/self-reliant on a mission mode. Short term pain for long term gain.


It could be the best thing that happens to India, although sadly sanctions are looking less and less likely.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by AkshaySG »

KSingh wrote:
Sanctions that cripple the Indian military to the point that India is severely hampered in a shooting war thanks to F404 LM2500, C17s, P8s, AH-64s etc all becoming u/s would harden the Indian public and political psyche for the next 100 years and likely be the springboard that seems India go full IDDM/self-reliant on a mission mode. Short term pain for long term gain.


It could be the best thing that happens to India, although sadly sanctions are looking less and less likely.
Would they ? .. This wouldn't be the first time sanctions have been imposed and while India figured out alternative propulsion,ammunation etc techniques the overall sentiment did not become anti-west/anti American after previous sanctions , Nor did we suddenly decide to stop importing and go full Swadeshi

A military setback or even a PR setback in a shooting war with China could just as easily be the end of Modi govt as you know it , Nothing would make it easier for Congress to win than to point to defeat against Chi/Pak

After which your "100 years of self reliance " goes out of the window in 1 month and the "short" in short term pain starts looking pretty long indeed .
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by KSingh »

AkshaySG wrote:
KSingh wrote:
Sanctions that cripple the Indian military to the point that India is severely hampered in a shooting war thanks to F404 LM2500, C17s, P8s, AH-64s etc all becoming u/s would harden the Indian public and political psyche for the next 100 years and likely be the springboard that seems India go full IDDM/self-reliant on a mission mode. Short term pain for long term gain.


It could be the best thing that happens to India, although sadly sanctions are looking less and less likely.
Would they ? .. This wouldn't be the first time sanctions have been imposed and while India figured out alternative propulsion,ammunation etc techniques the overall sentiment did not become anti-west/anti American after previous sanctions , Nor did we suddenly decide to stop importing and go full Swadeshi

A military setback or even a PR setback in a shooting war with China could just as easily be the end of Modi govt as you know it , Nothing would make it easier for Congress to win than to point to defeat against Chi/Pak

After which your "100 years of self reliance " goes out of the window in 1 month and the "short" in short term pain starts looking pretty long indeed .
All valid points- particularly the part about that costing Modi his seat


But as for historical precedent I don't think that's that relevant as in 2021/2 India is very different to the 80s/90s. In maybe 70% of cases India has an alternative to an in service imported item which is maybe 65-100% as capable so import substitution is set up more today than in the past and what's largely lacking is will.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by kit »

10 years down the line would India need Russia to the same extent as of now? Or for that matter the US ? ., economically maybe but major military hardware?

Almost all hardware hopefully would be indigenous., we need a separate thread on the next focus of indigenisation.,
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