CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

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Rakesh
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

‘In India we trust’ would be good US policy
https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/ ... icy-52345/
Three issues, in particular, stand out: India’s recent data localisation measures; the purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile defence system; and, oil trade with Iran. The Trump Administration's usual negotiating idiosyncrasies—unilateral economic measures and sanctions to use later as bargaining chips—have already preceded the visit.
The US is being typically sanctimonious while seeking to dictate to India the terms of engagement with others. When Washington has maintained promiscuous defence relationships with several partners in West Asia and the extended Middle East, including with Pakistan, why expect India to act differently? India will maintain multiple defence and strategic partnerships based on its national security requirements.
India must make clear what role it seeks in the international order and decide upon the means to achieve them.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by kit »

Turkey Stockpiles Crucial Weapons Parts, Anticipating U.S. Sanctions
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -sanctions
Turkey turned to Russia to address weaknesses in its air defense after failing to persuade the U.S. to share technology from its Patriot air-defense system as part of any acquisition deal. A missile deal with Moscow was announced in July 2017, and to try to head it off, the State Department last year approved a possible $3.5 billion Patriot sale to Turkey.

Still haunted by a crippling U.S. arms embargo half a century ago, Turkey’s military has been amassing parts for F-16 jets and other military hardware, according to two Turkish officials familiar with their country’s defense strategy. Relations between the two countries deteriorated over the course of the Syrian civil war, when the U.S. armed a Kurdish militia that Turkey views as a terrorist group, and in the aftermath of a 2016 coup attempt against Erdogan that his government blames on a Turkish imam residing in the U.S.
As India's list of US origin equipment grows, should we start hoarding spares as well ? Is the leeway for getting US high tech actually a curse rather than a blessing ?

Does India even have a gameplan in place if relations with US go south ?
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by ArjunPandit »

Kissinger had a statment: being the enemy of US is dangerous, being a friend is lethal. Look what happened to UK and US.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by kit »

No CAATSA guarantees for India despite growing defence-trade ties with US
https://www.janes.com/article/94795/no- ... es-with-us

As the United States and India continue to strengthen their defence trade partnership, the spectre of penalties related to the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) remains a risk that India is not safeguarded against, it has been confirmed to Jane's .

Despite some media reports in India suggesting that the Asian country has been awarded 'waiver' status under CAATSA - effectively shielding it from US sanctions linked to purchases of Russian military equipment - a US Department of State official told Jane's such country-specific dispensations are not made available under the Act.

"While we cannot prejudge whether a specific transaction would result in sanctions, it is important to note that CAATSA does not have any blanket or country-specific waiver provision," said the official. "There are strict criteria for considering a waiver, and each transaction is evaluated on a case-by-case basis. The Secretary of State has not made any determination regarding the significance of any transaction involving India."

CAATSA was enacted in 2017 in response to Russia's alleged interference in the 2016 US presidential election and the annexation of Crimea. Since its introduction the US government has imposed penalties on China and Turkey over their respective procurements of Russian Almaz-Antei S-400 air defence systems. In October 2019 India ordered five S-400 systems for USD5.5 billion.

In the spirit of CAATSA, the US Department of State official urged US allies to cease such military procurements from Russia. However, the official did not confirm whether CAATSA-related penalties were the subject of discussions between the two governments during high-level diplomatic meetings in New Delhi in late February.

"Without commentating on private diplomatic conversations, I can confirm that we urge all of our allies and partners to forgo transactions with Russia that risk triggering sanctions under CAATSA," said the US Department of State official
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

This is the same thing they have been saying for a while now. Why is Janes publishing the same thing again?
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by kit »

?testing the waters,to see a response ? .. maybe they are just idiots , the right hand doesn't know what the left is doing.. also there is no "India" section / office at the Pentagon anymore. Gonna get interesting, it might take the POTUS intervention to cancel a new "bill" sponsored by anti Indian Congress (wo)man , it all looks like a prelude to me. Also will set of a trend of president requiring to certify India as an ally for waivers annually.. just to keep needling India and putting it on tenderhooks , but there is a big difference they don't understand, India is spending its own money ! .. also they can kiss any sort of fighter plane deal goodbye
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

If this is new, then this is short sighted. We get it. There is no blanker waiver. How many times must you say it? :D
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by kit »

Rakesh wrote:If this is new, then this is short sighted. We get it. There is no blanker waiver. How many times must you say it? :D
Honestly thats what confounds me "The lady doth protest too much, methinks" :mrgreen:
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Cain Marko »

IMVVVHO - all this will blow over, and soon. India will rise dramatically if it manages COVID as well as it looks (touchwood, nazar utarao)! Many US MNCs including defence giants will line up to MKI/MII. Ultimately all US admins are tied to the bottomline via the F500 - esp. the MIC, and the WILL take India's interests in consideration if they want to thrive!
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Bharadwaj »

The elephant in the room needs immediate addressing. The Tejas needs an alternate engine and if the French are willing to sort the Kaveri we should pay the asking price. With a serious risk of Biden and the Dems getting power soon we may lose the G.E supply if they resort to sanctions. We have been caught out in the past and need to be ready. When it comes to the Tejas it is better to be paranoid.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Aditya_V »

In that case at least keep some additional engines in India. So we can last a few years with production till we get alternatives.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by srai »

^^^
Sanctions for what?
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Yagnasri »

srai wrote:^^^
Sanctions for what?
Then do not need any reason. Dems as a party is more anti-Indian just like labour party of UK. .
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by arvin »

Sanctions could be for anything e.g they dont like Modi's face.
Too late for mk1, mk1A and NP1 for alternate engines. They have to live with F404.
For mk2 and beyond EJ 200 should be alternate engine.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Manish_P »

srai wrote:^^^
Sanctions for what?
How about CAATSA for starters.. or new variants thereof (say PAASTA or NAASTA or a nashta of pasta :roll: )

India, facing sanctions for Russian arms deals, says it wants to pivot spending to the US
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by srai »

^^^
That is under Trump Administration. He has been pretty unpredictable to say the least to “allies”.

Regardless, whichever party in power there needs to be a strong reason to force sanctions. Not easy with various geopolitics in play.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

Manish_P wrote:
srai wrote:^^^
Sanctions for what?
How about CAATSA for starters.. or new variants thereof (say PAASTA or NAASTA or a nashta of pasta :roll: )

India, facing sanctions for Russian arms deals, says it wants to pivot spending to the US
Nothing new in the article.

Harsh Shringla is the Indian Ambassador to the United States. He has to feed the domestic audience.

Putting sanctions on India over the S-400 purchase would be the most asinine act in the Indo-US relationship. I am confident that wiser minds will prevail in the GOTUS. Too much at stake over this.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

To go beyond the basic level of co-operation, requires a different relationship and Foreign Minister Jaishankar just put out this. Click on the link below and read all the tweets by Nayanima Basu.

https://twitter.com/NayanimaBasu/status ... 43904?s=20 ---> The U.S. has to learn to work in a more multipolar world and go beyond alliances, says External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar.

The above quote is from this article below...

With desire for ‘higher gear’ and ‘new age of ambition’, India-US embrace becomes tighter
https://theprint.in/diplomacy/with-desi ... er/466353/
22 July 2020
“I think the US really has to learn to work with a more multipolar world with more plurilateral arrangements, go beyond alliances with which it has grown up over the last two generations,” Jaishankar added.

He said, “Given our history of independence and the fact that we really are coming from different places, there will be issues on which our convergence will be more, somewhere it will be less. I think the quest in the last 20 years, and I see that continuing into the future, is really to find a more common ground.”
After reading the above twitter feed and article, check out these tweets from Jeff M Smith, a Research Fellow at the South Asia-Heritage Foundation in response to Foreign Minister Jaishankar's statement.

https://twitter.com/Cold_Peace_/status/ ... 24032?s=20 ---> I suspect he was saying the old US alliance network isn't sufficient to deal with 21st century challenges. U.S. will have to look beyond allies, work with new strategic partners like India.

https://twitter.com/Cold_Peace_/status/ ... 39203?s=20 ---> I must be clairvoyant. Or maybe it was obvious what he was getting at but it didn't suit a certain narrative.

https://twitter.com/Cold_Peace_/status/ ... 81574?s=20 ---> This a variation on a theme I've heard from Indian colleagues for years: you're too wedded to the alliance system of the 20th Century, you need to think outside the box, reform legalistic bureaucracy, be more flexible in creating new strategic partnerships, etc. I largely agree.

And below are random tweets from twitter users, in response to Jeff Smith's tweets....

https://twitter.com/devansh287/status/1 ... 06176?s=20 ---> Most American "allies", as of now, are more like American protectorates with internal autonomy. All of them rely on US military to protect them against Russia and/or China. To better counter the Chinese threat, America needs to develop partnerships, not protectorates.

https://twitter.com/yyogesh001/status/1 ... 92064?s=20 ---> India and US still hesitate to forge a formal alliance. On one end, India wants to be "partner" with US in Indo Pacific and on another end, US wants India to be an "ally" like its NATO allies.

https://twitter.com/roflbaba/status/128 ... 21408?s=20 ---> Jeff, the point is Strategic cooperation doesn't translate to the USA setting up a military base in your country anymore. World has evolved, strategies need to evolve too.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

Another one from Jeff M Smith in response to another South Asia analyst....

https://twitter.com/Cold_Peace_/status/ ... 46432?s=20 ---> @JJCarafano ahead of the curve: "What’s needed is a common [India-US] security framework that doesn’t require a formal alliance and does allow for common operational capabilities. At the same time, it must also let India 'unplug' to deal with its own regional security concerns."

https://twitter.com/JJCarafano/status/1 ... 73152?s=20 ---> US-India strategic partnership is key. Indeed, the free world has to come together to protect the equities of the free world or they will be under constant, debilitating assault.

https://twitter.com/JJCarafano/status/1 ... 50882?s=20 ---> Long argued that US needs partnerships for the 21st century not the 20th.
[Date of this tweet is 22 July 2020 in which he quotes his own article below from 2017]

A strong U.S.-India partnership is in our strategic interest
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/st ... rest-23624
12 Dec 2017
The U.S.-India relationship doesn’t fit well into either the category of friend or ally. What is driving strategic convergence between Washington and Delhi is Beijing. But the United states and India don’t need a treaty alliance. It is not about deferring to Indian sensibilities that may cling to the country’s nonalignment legacy, or crave strategic autonomy, or envision India as independent balancer in South Asia. No. There just isn’t a need for a defensive alliance to deal with China.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

Yet another one from Jeff M Smith....

https://twitter.com/Cold_Peace_/status/ ... 27043?s=20 ----> Not ideal. But not a surprise to anyone that's done any work on India. I'm resigned to the fact we're probably not ever going to be able to dictate who India can buy arms from. Just as India can't dictate who we sell arms to. Trying to do so will only create unnecessary friction.

==============================================

86 per cent of Indian military equipment of Russian origin: Stimson Center paper
https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... r-6517136/
22 July 2020
The dependence is likely to continue because more than 55% of Indian defence imports since 2014 have been from Russia.
https://twitter.com/SushantSin/status/1 ... 60480?s=20 ----> Among all the talk of India-US defence cooperation, the fact remains that 86% of military equipment in service with the Indian armed forces is of Russian origin. And it is not ending soon as 55% of defence imports since 2014 have been from Russia. I report...

https://twitter.com/SushantSin/status/1 ... 94595?s=20 ---> Data from a new Stimson Center working paper by @splalwani @frank11285 et al shows that 41% of Indian Navy's and two-thirds of the IAF’s equipment is of Russian origin. While the figure for the Army is a whopping 90%. The data is based on nearly 10,000 major pieces of equipment.

https://twitter.com/SushantSin/status/1 ... 28384?s=20 ---> "Because this dependence will endure for decades due to the long lifespan of these systems, an enhanced US-India strategic cooperation will have to figure out ways to work around this, ranging from policies (like CAATSA) to military interoperability”: @splalwani

https://twitter.com/SushantSin/status/1 ... 63424?s=20 ---> This doesn't mean that there is no US military equipment in service, but it is lesser in quantity compared to the Russian-origin equipment. Apache and Chinook helicopters, M777 howitzer guns, C-17 and C-130J air lifters, P-8I submarine hunters are some of the major US platforms.

https://twitter.com/SushantSin/status/1 ... 60194?s=20 ---> Navy’s only aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya and its only nuclear attack submarine, Chakra II, are from Russia. Army's MBT T-90, IAF's mainstay Su30 MKI fighter aircraft, only nuclear-capable supersonic cruise missile Brahmos... S400 on its way, the list of Russian stuff is long.

https://twitter.com/SushantSin/status/1 ... 45760?s=20 ---> Even after the BJP government came to power in 2014, Russia continues to occupy the prime position as India’s defence supplier, with US$9.3 billion worth of exports to India. The US trails a distant second, with defence supplies worth US$2.3 billion to India in the same period.

https://twitter.com/SushantSin/status/1 ... 51907?s=20 ---> [N/N] Bottomline: India has diversified its defence imports but Russia remains the pre-eminent supplier of military equipment. The dependency continues even now, and these systems will be in military service for decades. It has real, serious implications for defence cooperation.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

US defence planners must appreciate India’s dependence on Russian arms: American think-tank scholar
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 088799.cms
21 July 2020

By Sameer Lalwani - a senior fellow for Asia strategy and director of the South Asia Program at the Stimson Center, in a recent article titled ‘Revelations and Opportunities: What the United States Can Learn from the Sino-Indian Crisis’ have suggested that “American defense policymakers and analysts should lean into this opportunity to improve ties with India, but also draw important lessons from this still unfolding episode to inform future strategy.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

The U.S. Wants India as a Real Ally, Not Another Helpless Dependent
https://spectator.org/the-u-s-wants-ind ... dependent/
26 July 2020

By Doug Bandow
Any alliance can’t be modeled on anything like NATO.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

China shouldn’t view us through US lens. That would be a great disservice, says S Jaishankar
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 307398.cms
02 Aug 2020
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status ... 94530?s=20 ---> Scoop - United States is poised to announce long-awaited sanctions against Turkey over its acquisition of Russia's S-400 defense system.

https://twitter.com/dave_brown24/status ... 59076?s=20 ---> The CAATSA is out of the bag.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Philip »

The US should not try and armtwist India into an arms procurement straightjacket.We are free to choose our weapons from any source," horses for courses", cost-effectiveness our mantra. To paraphrase Deng," what difference where the bomb or bullet comes from as long as it kills our enemy?" If Russian weaponry squashes a Chinko bug, ergo,Brahmos exterminating a PLAN carrier, the US should applaud!
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Cain Marko »

Rakesh wrote:https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status ... 94530?s=20 ---> Scoop - United States is poised to announce long-awaited sanctions against Turkey over its acquisition of Russia's S-400 defense system.

https://twitter.com/dave_brown24/status ... 59076?s=20 ---> The CAATSA is out of the bag.
One wonders if the new MRCBF + MRCA combined bonanza is lalach to avoid such obstacles...
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Philip »

Turkey being a NATO member is a different matter.Its acquisition of Ru S-400s will complicate its integration with US western milware and miltech, perhaps even compromising the same to benefit Russia. The US has a moot point there.

India on the other hand is NOT a NATO member,we only have a few defence agreements not amounting to any military " alliance" with the US, either bilateral or multilateral. We are simply " fellow travellers" in the Indo- Asia- Pacific against the imposition by force of a " Pax Sinica" in the aforementioned region.The last Pax Sinica by the way, lasted for just..... 2000 years!

Therefore , all that is neccessary for us is to famously quote Don Lucches in Godfather-3, for "our ships to sail in the same direction ." Where our ships and our weaponry come from is not the US's business or subject to any form of US diktat either. Happiness will prevail as long as we "sail and shoot in the same direction!"
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by kit »

Might be a good idea of what sanctions US can put in place and the reciprocal repercussions (shooting itself in the foot)
Lets not be in denial and work out what the US can actually do
For starters all those alphabet soup treaties become meaningless ?
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by eklavya »

I find this F-35/S400 issue somewhat strange. US seems to think that S400 will learn the secrets of the F-35, and render the F-35 less effective. Why isn’t the opposite true: F-35 will learn the secrets of the S400, and render the S400 less effective. One would have thought the odds favour the US, given their lead in most technologies.

Anyway, what would the US hope to achieve by sanctioning India. All this talk of Indo-Pacific and Quad will become redundant. In seeking a partnership with India, the US is securing it’s own long term interests. They are not doing it out of idealism.

Not sure what threat S400 with IAF represents to the USAF. They will need to weigh that against losing India as an ally against the CPC/PLA.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by kit »

eklavya wrote:I find this F-35/S400 issue somewhat strange. US seems to think that S400 will learn the secrets of the F-35, and render the F-35 less effective. Why isn’t the opposite true: F-35 will learn the secrets of the S400, and render the S400 less effective. One would have thought the odds favour the US, given their lead in most technologies.

Anyway, what would the US hope to achieve by sanctioning India. All this talk of Indo-Pacific and Quad will become redundant. In seeking a partnership with India, the US is securing it’s own long term interests. They are not doing it out of idealism.

Not sure what threat S400 with IAF represents to the USAF. They will need to weigh that against losing India as an ally against the CPC/PLA.
Indeed, a case in point., the Americans sanctioned Turkey ( or rather restricted) as the S400 might learn secrets of the F35/F22 stealth fighters. Turkey had its F35 purchase cancelled and removed from the supplier chain. India is neither a part of the supply chain for any of Americas's stealth fighters ( sic !! ) nor does it operate or in intend to operate any of those !! .

Now the only reason i can think of is America would be loath to send its stealth fighters to any Indian bases if a S400 is nearby since it could presumably study its characteristics.

I think its a very good thing that they don't !!

India does not want the American stealth fighters in any form nor do they want them snooping around

There is a lot unsaid into the American threats of invoking CAATSA in case of India
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Pratyush »

If India is sanctioned under CAASTA I believe it will be good for India in the long run. As it will finally drive home the point that India needs to build it's own MIC. If seeks to maintain strategic independence.

No more will maintaining a zoo of defence equipment be useful.

Secondly, it will complete the strategic isolation of United States from India.

China wins USA loses. India if acts with prudence will be able to hold its own in Asia.

Ultimately USA will lose.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by kit »

America wants an India that hangs to its coat tails , just like a UK !! To that extent they will make threats, noises, conciliatory gestures ., all the while wanting someone to keep an eye on the errant wife ( China ) who he is loath to divorce , almost addicted to her charms !! The elephant is anyway just too big to hang on to anyone !!., time to chart its own destiny
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by krishna_krishna »

CAATSA will be slapped on India, and like others I believe it is good for India in the long run. Makes all that duplicitous Bharatmata- Columbia mata Behn Behn claims to where they belong, a new generation of desi will see this first hand and force Indians to not depend on anyone we will emerge more stronger than we did in 1999-2000.

Like the thread name it is an oxymoron why pay much time to this and to a receding power , the new world will be different than what we see today and that is what you should prepare for and it will not have an numero uno power but multi power word. Massa does and rightly so like an old power who want the system it designed to its benefit to continue but like everything in life only thing constant is change. It takes time for someone to realize that they are getting old , realization will come but late.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by eklavya »

India is not going to be sanctioned, and the partnership with US will grow in strength and in depth in the years ahead.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by ArjunPandit »

while i also believe that India will not be sanctioned..but i think that might be a good thing..will direct money towards desi programs.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by kit »

eklavya wrote:India is not going to be sanctioned, and the partnership with US will grow in strength and in depth in the years ahead.
Keep the faith !.. Geopolitics does not work that way. America always had that itch to use a sort of "goad" on India the presumed elephant. This time they will use it differently, both conciliatory but also restrictions, this is precisely why we need to track how and when it develops.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by nvishal »

Turkeys s400 compromises Israels(f35) air superiority in the region.

Indias s400 will do the same in kashmir

CAATSA is akin to a poker game. They are hoping that India will blink first.

India has been doing perfectly fine with Russian support in the past and multi-alignment now.

The Americans are worried more about Russia than china and all its foreign policy is based with Russia in mind.

The QUAD will not materialize into any significance

If turkey is sanctioned, India might be sanctioned as well. Remember that the US is a fading superpower.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by chetak »

eklavya wrote:India is not going to be sanctioned, and the partnership with US will grow in strength and in depth in the years ahead.
it's ok to be fellow travellers for a short distance but they have their agenda and we should have ours and stick to it because the two do not mix.

they see benefit from India in the short term and we are foolishly hoping for the long term which is not going to happen except in a US-philippines demeaning sort of way which is what they actually want from India.

It was never long term with the two of us in the past and nor will it be so even in the future.

they are selfish and transactional which is simply superpower realpolitik, and it's everything the Hindus are not because of the dharmic inertia of cultural naivety.

and we are also the ever foolish Hindus who let everyone in and paid the price each time because of our civilizational apathy.

there is a global pushback (overtly visible now in the anti CAA, anti "farmer", etc agitations) when the Hindus started to assert themselves circa 2014 and white skin countries have become wary of India since a confident and a politically perceptive India with a Hindu core will upset a lot of desert cult and BIF applecarts in India because of the nationalistic ideology that has heightened the awareness of the docile and usually slumbering populace.
Cain Marko
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5352
Joined: 26 Jun 2005 10:26

Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Cain Marko »

Weelll, if it does come to sanctions - what happens to the LCA - mk1 and mk2. Let alone AMCA ityadi. Is that why GOI is looking desperately for engine partners - RR and Safran.

Rest assured, if sanctions do happen, a lot of US inventory will be subject to it and this will definitely hurt in the short term. Of course, if could very well mean US losses in any new purchases and French(?) gain.

My guess is that this will be a transactional deal - no sanctions in return for a biggish purchase. Either IN/IAF purchase of small amount of Shornets is possible. Although I'd rather see more P8s, C17s, Tankers, Sea Guardians etc..
AkshaySG
BRFite
Posts: 412
Joined: 30 Jul 2020 08:51

Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by AkshaySG »

I don't see what the US would accomplish by this apart from firmly alienating India , one of its main allies against China in indo-pacific

If they sanction us that pushes us to get more European and Russian tech , improve our own MIC , Washes away any chances of big future purchases from US losing them 10's of Billions of $ , Screws up any "quad " hopes that US had and gives a big victory to the Chinese who will see two of their biggest enemies get alienated .

There are too many negatives and very little positives for a self serving country like US to take such a drastic step .

I think they're just treading the waters ,seeing if they can arm twist us into some ridiculously expensive F-21,SH deal or something ,Maybe badly affect our own MIC and keep us in the import dependent camp
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