CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

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yensoy
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by yensoy »

Lovely to hear sermons of democracy, and having laws applied to a people who neither elected the persons who passed the law, now signed up to following the law.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by kit »

Cyrano wrote:*** X Posting from StratFor India-US relations thread ***

What exactly is the logic given by US to not buy Russian equipment? I see none. The expectation is that just because Amreeka doesnt like it, or perceives such equipment as a "potential" threat to US' super duper F35, or wants to stifle Russian MIC and generally cause decline in Russian influence over the world, India should comply.
.
Exactly that, somewhere in 1985 there was indeed a pentagon assessment mentioning Indian investment in the Russian mil industrial complex enabled it to maintain competencies post USSR collapse. They want to cut off the source.

Once India has been successfully addicted to US weapons and doctrines., they will utilize CAATSA to bring India to heel.

Killing two birds with one stone.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by nam »

There is no killing of any bird with us. It is not our concern, what happens to Russian arms industry. Regarding us, other than the jet turbine engine, there is nothing US or any other country hold us for ransom.

Missiles, radars, land system, fighters are now all produced in the country.

GoI needs to get off the horse of importing large systems from Russia. S400 type system is required, but that indicates the lack of our investment in our own system. Take the easy route of importing to buy friendship.

A nation with a ABM program cannot create a S400 like system? The S400 is made of PESA radars, while all our SAMs being developed are AESA based :roll:

If US is ready to move their companies from China in to India, then there is no problem is bribing them with a annual arms purchase order. Buy the usual non-offensive ones like transport, drones, rifles etc. 80 drones from India, 20 fro US. 80 transport from Indian manufacturer, 20 from US. Some part of our inventory in return for US support in the economic sphere.

The major problem with Russia purchase is there is no benefit for us. No economic advantage compared to what we will get from US.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Cain Marko »

nam wrote:A nation with a ABM program cannot create a S400 like system? The S400 is made of PESA radars, while all our SAMs being developed are AESA based :roll:
The problem is not the radar system. It is the missiles that are not easy to develop - not in the short time frame for induction anyway.. AFAIK there is simply no analogue for the SAMs in the S400 system. the extended range, hypersonic (M14!) missiles of 250km and 400km is what makes the S400 so unique. Would truly give the IAF some space and flexibility. Positioned in the western and northern theaters, it virtually makes TSP air and BM force a very questionable asset. It will even provide options against J20 types.

Altogether this was a very, very well thought out purchase by the IAF and Manohar Parrikar. Along with the 36 rafales, it certainly mitigates the IAF's fighter shortage issue. And provides a very powerful defensive capability.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by brar_w »

Cain Marko wrote:The extended range, hypersonic (M14!) missiles of 250km and 400km is what makes the S400 so unique.
Those are target missile speeds which would correspond to high MRBM/IRBM class of ballistic missiles. Of course the ranges will be just a fraction against those ballistic targets and other envelope restrictions apply for radar mode and orientation.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by nachiket »

nam wrote:A nation with a ABM program cannot create a S400 like system? The S400 is made of PESA radars, while all our SAMs being developed are AESA based :roll:
Not quite as simple as that. The S-400 uses multiple different radar types in different bands for different target types and altitudes. It has separate radars for long range detection of high and low altitude targets, a UHF radar (optional) for stealthy targets and a multitude of missiles for engaging different targets at various max ranges. And all of these components are integrated together into a single administration system. I don't know of any other similar system anywhere which provides such a comprehensive set of capabilities in one package.

Of course this does not mean that India is getting all the advertised capabilities. There will be some which are not included in the export version and some optional ones which we may not have included in the deal. We don't even know which of the missiles we are buying.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by nam »

Our QRSAM has the same setup as S400. Just at lower range.

ADTCR: S band volume search radar. 150KM+
BMFR: X band fire control radar : 80KM
BMSR: C band tracking radar: 120KM
Ku band & Optical tools.

All fused in to single control center.

We already have experience creating very long range radar for ABM: Swordfish & fire control MFCR.

So what we need is longer range ADTCR, longer range BMFR, longer range BMSR. And a longer range MRSAM. i.e one with a big fat booster. We can start with Barak ER style 150KM - 200KM. How difficult is it to put a booster on MRSAM?

If DRDO was approved the XRSAM project and the S400 signing amount was handed over to RCI/DRDL we would have had XRSAM under testing right now.

5B being spend on a kit to give a strategic headache, which is not worth fighting for. S400 purchase is giving all the leftie jokers in US a stick to beat us with. They along with Pak supporters in US are bent on spoiling our relationship with US.

We could have bribed the Russians with a Su30 upgrade. Or even a nuke reactor purchase. :roll:
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by arshyam »

If not the S-400, they'd find some other stick fo beat us with. No point in worrying about what they will or not do. We should go ahead and do what we want to do, and let them do the worrying. One big worry they'll have is, what happens to their vaunted law and standing in other world capitals if India simply thumbs her nose at caatsa and goes about her day with little to no repercussion, simply because they cannot actually afford to sanction us? If they fail to do anything, can they continue to brandish this law against other countries? Sure, they can, but they'll be openly regarded as opportunistic bullies trying to enforce an infructuous law in places they have no jurisdiction..

The NPT and CTBT saga come to mind.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by nachiket »

nam wrote: If DRDO was approved the XRSAM project and the S400 signing amount was handed over to RCI/DRDL we would have had XRSAM under testing right now.

5B being spend on a kit to give a strategic headache, which is not worth fighting for. S400 purchase is giving all the leftie jokers in US a stick to beat us with. They along with Pak supporters in US are bent on spoiling our relationship with US.

We could have bribed the Russians with a Su30 upgrade. Or even a nuke reactor purchase. :roll:
I am not saying that we won't be able to build a similar system if we set out to do that. Just that there is no local analogue of the S400 available today. And our efforts seem to be in a different direction - multiple separate layered AD systems, which has its own advantages.

The Su-30 upgrade is a bigger contract and that is something we should try and keep indigenous as much as possible. HAL already has a proposal for it.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 66212?s=20 ---> US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin hints the USA is continuing to try to push India out of it's Non-aligned foreign policy. "My concern is that they prioritize their relationship with us and their willingness to work with us at their very top of the list of their priorities", he said.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 05799?s=20 ---> US likely to issue waiver to India on S-400 purchase. Even if sanctions are imposed it will be redundant ones such as no loans to India for defence purchases by US banks (which will have no effect as we do not take any loans from foreign banks for any defence purchases).

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 37893?s=20 ---> But this does not mean US will soften it's stance in public until the very last.

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 61543?s=20 ---> Certain factors which could affect this are how many new arms deals India signs with US in coming months and pressure from various US Senators/Congresspersons.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Philip »

The US must realise that India is not a yanqui satellite state,free to buy from whomsoever it chooses. We should berjj
firm about this nauseating talk of sanctions,trotted out from time to time by Washington. Yankee Doodle needs us more than we need him.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

Is ‘CAATSA’, a ‘bizarre’ legislation as regards its application on India (for purchase of Russian S-400 Triumf)?
23 March 2021

Part 1 ---> https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blo ... TOIOpinion

Part 2 ---> https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blo ... TOIOpinion
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/Chellaney/status/13 ... 45317?s=20 ---> Not content with its Iran-oil embargo imposing billions of dollars of higher import costs on India, the US (as its defense secretary's visit signaled) is seeking to dictate India's defense ties with Russia. The US must grasp this: India cannot become just another Japan to the US.

https://twitter.com/Chellaney/status/13 ... 64961?s=20 ---> The Cold War-era patron-client framework for alliances is certainly not valid in the 21st century. The US is seeking to leverage its domestic law (CAATSA) to downgrade India’s defense ties with Moscow so as to make India its sole arms client. Such an effort will likely backfire.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

Austin Asia Visits Focussed On U.S. Putting China On Front Burner

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by kit »

Xposting from the US thread

The logic of CAATSA is seen as a "problem" .It is not. Rather it is one of the tools of American policy making. It is there to "balance" views inside the policy making establishment.

In giving an exemption to such an act America can in effect create a sort of " we did you a favour" and now "you owe us one"., wherein none existed in the first place ( all virtue of being the superpower)

Thus, it would create a favourable situation for them WITHOUT any tangible giveaways.

It has nothing to do with other countries military requirements /capacities/ allied status.

The above effect would come into place in dealing with countries of "allied" status.

For countries that need to be made an example ., the act would be fully enforced.

CAATSA is thus a brilliant invention of American foreign policy
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 34178?s=20 ---->

Top US Navy Admiral on India's S-400 ADS purchase says, "We will have to work through this and encourage India to consider US equipment."

Says "encouragement angle & providing alternatives" likely better approach than sanctions.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by YashG »

The Joe Biden administration highlighted the strength of U.S.-India ties in its March 19 meeting with Chinese officials in Alaska, underlining how it has increasingly come to view India as central to its broader objectives in dealing with China in the Indo-Pacific region.
https://www.thehindu.com/news/internati ... 164388.ece

You cant do this and then talk about CAATSA. CAATSA has to be a joke. We should refuse to discuss CAATSA.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by AkshaySG »

YashG wrote: You cant do this and then talk about CAATSA. CAATSA has to be a joke. We should refuse to discuss CAATSA.
Or course they can, It's a policy that is they feel is important in keeping their geopolitical might regardless of how hypocritical or logical it may be


We need to stop discussing the CAATSA and US related sanctions as if they're always grounded in reality or sense. If a policy helps American interests then they're gonna implement it, No matter how convoluted the thought behind them is.

We're talking about a nation that blew up half the middle east post 9/11 but did nothing to the country where the main perpetrators were from (Saudi), A country who'd be up in arms about human rights violations unless they're being committed by one of its allies .


The United States has always done what it's seen as best for its interests and will continue to do so, US pointing out their hypocrisy won't change that....

The only thing that will change it is if they have more to lose in implementing the sanctions than they have to gain and that is what needs to be made clear to them
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 59136?s=20 ---> Top American Senator Todd Young says that imposing CAATSA sanctions on India for buying the multi-billion-dollar S-400 missile system from Russia would be a geo-strategic victory for Russia.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by YashG »

Rakesh wrote:https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 59136?s=20 ---> Top American Senator Todd Young says that imposing CAATSA sanctions on India for buying the multi-billion-dollar S-400 missile system from Russia would be a geo-strategic victory for Russia.
Full article link for this tweet - https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/04/12/un ... iden-modi/
*Paywall*
Given India’s historical skepticism of international cooperation and long-standing ties to Russia, any sanctions would be amplified and leveraged by those within India who remain trepidatious about deeper engagement with the West, such as the Non-Aligned Movement. Moreover, Russia could take advantage of the sanctions to reclaim its role as India’s military partner of choice. Paradoxically then, sanctioning New Delhi over its Russian-made defense system would actually prove to be a geostrategic victory for Moscow.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

While I do not agree with the authors, both are really good reads.

Strategic Autonomy and US-Indian Relations
https://www.heritage.org/asia/commentar ... -relations
09 Nov 2020

By Jeff M. Smith who specializes in South Asia as a research fellow in Heritage's Asian Studies Center.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Non-Allied Forever: India’s Grand Strategy According to Subrahmanyam Jaishankar
https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/03/0 ... -pub-83974
03 March 2021

By Ashley Tellis who holds the Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs and is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, specializing in international security and U.S. foreign and defense policy with a special focus on Asia and the Indian subcontinent.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

Remove a sanctions cloud from U.S.-Indian Relations
https://warontherocks.com/2021/04/remov ... relations/
27 April 2021
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

S-400 deliveries to India and the looming CAATSA sanctions
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/s- ... NewsSearch
By Shireen Singh and Captain Vikram Mahajan (Retd)
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/142 ... 92932?s=20 ---> America will soon find out that CAATSA is actually narrowing its geopolitical space rather than enhancing it.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by kit »

Indeed the tweet just below sums up what can happen., CAATSA was made at a time when America believed its hegemonistic status wont be challenged and could get away with anything ..the world has moved a ..lot ..on ., esp post Covid

I think they should just go ahead and sanction India and lets see what's gonna happen !
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

Here we go again...this train is never late! :lol:

How is S-400 not in anybody's security interest?

U.S. underlines unease with S-400 deal
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 857254.ece
06 Oct 2021
Striking a discordant note on India’s impending delivery of the Russian S-400 missile systems, however, Ms. Sherman, who described the S-400 deal as “dangerous”, expressed the hope that the two sides could “solve” the issue that arises from the possibility of U.S. sanctions over the defence purchase. “We’ve been quite public about any country that decides to use the S-400. We think that it is dangerous and not in anybody’s security interest,” Ms. Sherman said in response to a question from The Hindu at a roundtable with journalists on Wednesday.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

Any waiver will come with concessions that India will have to adhere to.

https://twitter.com/DesiEscobar07/statu ... 37508?s=20 ---> US deputy secretary of state Wendy Sherman to foreign secretary Harsh Shringla and NSA Doval: Final decision on possible sanctions on the S-400 deal will be made by President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Pratyush »

No waiver. Full sanctions on India.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by kit »

Pratyush wrote:No waiver. Full sanctions on India.
Please post a link. It was coming anyway. We all were expecting it.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Pratyush »

That's not news. That's my wish.

Because I see this as the kick in the nuts that India needs to finish Kaveri and more.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

This is the view that percolates in one's head, when you believe the entire world is America-centric.

https://twitter.com/clary_co/status/144 ... 74498?s=20 ---> Let me be more constructive in my criticism of this argument. If I were still writing talking points for the US government, I would propose five points on the S-400 and India…

https://twitter.com/clary_co/status/144 ... 11843?s=20 ---> (1) we have these sanctions because the US Congress concluded Russia is a malign force in international politics. We can separately bolster this point by sharing information about things Russia is doing (in Afghanistan for instance) that are injurious to India’s interests.

https://twitter.com/clary_co/status/144 ... 82833?s=20 ---> (2) we are particularly concerned about the S-400 because it makes it difficult for us to sell truly top-of-the-line air defenses or low-observable aircraft to India in the future.

https://twitter.com/clary_co/status/144 ... 15237?s=20 ---> (3) If India forgoes the S-400 purchase, the US is committed to ensuring India can find a top-of-the-line air defense system from either the US or its many partners. (This might require giving Israel permission to sell systems with US technology, for example.)

https://twitter.com/clary_co/status/144 ... 63694?s=20 ---> (4) by purchasing the S-400, India is subsidizing China’s principal external arms supplier. India’s money pays for the R&D that will create some of China’s weapons of tomorrow. :rotfl:

https://twitter.com/clary_co/status/144 ... 17573?s=20 ---> (5) Relatedly, is India confident China will not acquire the S-400 and, as a consequence, learn how to best fly against the system in the future? While US secrets can always be lost to espionage (as can Russia’s), the US will work constantly to deny China cutting-edge systems.

https://twitter.com/clary_co/status/144 ... 20585?s=20 ---> Erratum: As @tanvi_madan points out, my 5th point should read “is India confident China won’t acquire MORE S-400s…” I forgot there were reported deliveries before the reported suspension by Russia.

https://twitter.com/clary_co/status/144 ... 73958?s=20 ---> Anyway, these talking points will probably fail too but they at least aren’t nonsense. For more on CAATSA, Russia, including what to do after S-400s arrive in India later this year, I encourage you to listen to...

The Looming Cloud of Sanctions Over U.S.-India Relations
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/g ... 0536934884
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

A great tweet countering the above tripe...

https://twitter.com/KSingh_1469/status/ ... 68192?s=20 ---> Sorry but your expanded talking points are just as nonsensical. The world isn’t this American-centric and you completely ignore India’s desire to protect its sovereignty and that you make points that you think they haven’t already considered is quite patronising.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

Why India’s arms deals with Russia are about to become a headache for Biden
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/3 ... den-514822
30 Sept 2021
The Indian government “was definitely watching all of that in great detail and all along the way we continued to warn them,” said R. Clarke Cooper, assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs under the Trump administration, now at the Atlantic Council. The message to the Indian government after inking the deal with Russia in 2018 was “‘look, you take delivery of the S-400 you're going to potentially jeopardize interoperability with the United States, and you're going to potentially jeopardize interoperability with other partners that you value,” Cooper said.
Since CAATSA went into effect, the message to countries with long-standing relationships with the Russian defense industry has generally been, “keep your AK-47s, but if you really are looking to have a modern military alongside the United States and partners, don't put that at risk,” Cooper said. “I would be surprised if the Biden team is having any different kind of conversation with the Indian government.”
In Turkey's case, the worry inside NATO was that the powerful Russian radar system that tracks targets for the S-400 would pump valuable information back to Moscow about how the F-35 and other aircraft operate. Leaders in Brussels said there was no chance they would put their F-35s anywhere near that radar system, even if it were operated by an ally.
“Whatever happens, whether it's sanctions or whether it's a waiver, the real challenge for the administration is figuring out how to avoid having to deal with this over and over and over again,” said Stimson’s Lalwani.
In 2023, India will receive the first two of four new frigates from Russia, and in 2025, will begin leasing its third nuclear-powered submarine from Moscow, all major deals already sealed.
“The question will be whether this is going to trigger a wave of sanctions each time,” Lalwani said. “So the other reason the administration will have to work this out with Congress is so this Sword of Damocles isn’t hanging over the relationship for the next five to 10 years because those deals have already been made and signed.”
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/DesiEscobar07/statu ... 86083?s=20 ---> Despite CAATSA threat, Turkey to work with Russia on jet engines, warships, submarines, and space: President Erdogan
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/KanwalSibal/status/ ... 59735?s=20 ---> Deputy Secretary Sherman saying no rush to recognise Taliban laudable but US & India being “absolutely of one mind” and US will have India’s security concerns “front & centre” on mind in Afghanistan doubtful. Calling S-400 “dangerous” when it builds our capacity against China’s danger ill-advised.

https://twitter.com/vikrammahajan/statu ... 84866?s=20 ---> Couldn't agree more Sir. How can a weapon of self defense, (that too for a common adversary) be dangerous for a nation across the globe.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

Look at the hypocrisy below...

https://twitter.com/akshayalladi/status ... 46597?s=20 ---> Interesting, and honestly not entirely unexpected though I am impressed with the speed: US intensifies talks to use Russian bases for Afghan counterterrorism operations --> https://politi.co/3zV84an

https://twitter.com/elmihiro/status/144 ... 53991?s=20 ---> The United States of America should immediately impose CAATSA sanctions on the United States of America for collaborating with Russia.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by kit »

Rakesh wrote: https://twitter.com/DesiEscobar07/statu ... 86083?s=20 ---> Despite CAATSA threat, Turkey to work with Russia on jet engines, warships, submarines, and space: President Erdogan
They are already sanctioned , so what more now ?!

CAATSA looks more like someone spitting up on the air !..
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by kit »

Rakesh wrote:Look at the hypocrisy below...

https://twitter.com/akshayalladi/status ... 46597?s=20 ---> Interesting, and honestly not entirely unexpected though I am impressed with the speed: US intensifies talks to use Russian bases for Afghan counterterrorism operations --> https://politi.co/3zV84an

https://twitter.com/elmihiro/status/144 ... 53991?s=20 ---> The United States of America should immediately impose CAATSA sanctions on the United States of America for collaborating with Russia.
:rotfl:
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