Austin wrote:They will but at the place and time of their choosing , They will play this game their way to their advantage , if the need arises they can arm twist France and Israel to sanction us and indeed they have done that wrt to 2 other countries [ China & Russia ]
We need to get out of this fallacy that America wont sanction us they dont give a **** about their own allies in EU countries or Tukey when their national interest as stake , india is still a turd world nation and with far less importance to them.
They can even sanction commercial project like Nord Stream-2 where Germany wishes to buy Russian Gas but US does not want them to do so because they want to sell gas to EU at 3x time the cost so sanction them , The same goes for JCPAO where US withdraws from Iran deal for their own petty political reason and want to sanction any other countries be that their only Allay EU if they keep to the deal.
As for the arms deal in pipeline once you sanction then you are at their mercy and not them at ours , we paid most of the money and once sanctioned we will have to scout for spares support else "our" weapons duly paid will be grounded, They hold all the High Card in this game we dont.
They know once Russian arms are fully stopped via CATSAA then the game is theirs , Only Russia remains beyond their reach so they are trying to cut the veins slowly , This is a long term game decades long this is how they control nations and influence their decision in US favour.
This is not just about our Sovereignty to buy Arms but also about Sovereignty to implement our own Foreign Policy ....but I am happy MOD made a strong rebuttal to their demands.
Saar, it is not that they do not want to sanction India for the S-400 (and down the road, 2nd Akula lease, etc). They are in a bind.
Weakening India - via sanctions - will provide the opposite effect of what they want in the Indo-US Pacific Command. Take a look at South Asia and South East Asia. Who in the region can stand up to China? Will it be Nepal? Bhutan? Laos? Vietnam? Phillipines? Taiwan? Sri Lanka handed its soverignity to China with the signing of the Hambantota Port for 99 years. So it is only India who can do so. The US is not eager for a strategic partnership with India, because out of the love in their heart for us. The Chinese threat was always there for India since 1947 and America turned a blind eye to that for all these decades, because it was not their backyard and not their concern. But China gets more belligerent as time passes and is now directly threatening American interests in the region and that is a no-no for America. So the US is placing her bets on India being the counter weight to China. Sanctioning India now - over the S-400 - will be counterproductive to that goal.
Now their hope and vision is for India to eventually become a poodle and serve as an extension arm of their Indo-US Pacific Command. And poodles (UK, Australia, Japan) always roll over and wag their tail in exchange for doggie biscuits (American weaponry). But they are getting push back from India and they cannot figure why. See what Richard A Bitzinger - presently a visiting senior fellow at Singapore's S Rajaratnam School of International Studies - has to say about Round 3 of MRCA competition.
Boeing's F/A-18 Super Hornet to contend with Lockheed Martin F-16 and SAAB Gripen for IAF fighters
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomac ... -secretary
But the experience with the Rafale contract has made experts sceptical that the latest tender will proceed as planned. Richard A. Bitzinger, visiting senior fellow at Singapore's S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said he did not expect a resolution in even the next two to three years. "I am never surprised by what the Indians do when it comes to their procurement tenders. They are constantly changing the rules, changing their minds, and often even cancelling orders mid-way through," he said. "The Indians have a remarkable knack for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory."
The first underlined sentence was re-affirmed by a senior Boeing Executive, just a few days ago. See here --->
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7634&p=2276420#p2276420
The second underlined sentence is what annoys them the most. They have not gotten over the bitter taste of the Rafale win and that is illustrated clearly by the few folks on BRF who push for the F-16 and F-18.
Take a look at the first MMRCA contest. What did they do when the F-18 and F-16 lost on 27 April 2011? They whined, but it was business as usual. Since 27 April 2011, joint working groups have been formed, AH-64 and CH-47s have been ordered, a second batch of C-130s are being delivered, etc. Now, if they follow through on their veiled threat of not selling us armed drones in lieu of the S-400 purchase...what chance do you give the F-16 and F-18 winning Round 3 of the MRCA competition? Round 3 is expected to cost US $20 billion and the 57 naval fighters are expected to cost another US $14+ billion. Why do you think the US Administration - unlike the US Congress - is so eager to issue a waiver? Can you imagine such a waiver being talked about 20 years ago, during Pokharan '98?
The American Government is run and operated by their Military Industrial Complex. During the Cold War, the threat was Russia. Now the threat is China. And as long as there is a threat, the Military Industrial Complex makes a LOT of money.
You cannot compare Turkey, EU or any other region to South Asia and South East Asia. The Chinese are way beyond being just a thorn in the side of the Americans. They are downright giving America the middle finger. The problem is America cannot take on China by herself - she is $21+ Trillion in debt and China controls a large portion of that debt. They need India as bad, as India needs to modernise her military. They will not upset the apple cart over the S-400.
The Americans know they cannot fully stop Indian arms dependence on Russia. It will take another 20 - 30 years at least to even turn the page on that story. A good chunk of our surface fleet is Russian. Most of our sub surface fleet is Russian. More than 75% of our air fleet is Russian. The army is no different - tanks, armoured personnel carriers, anti-air defence, etc are all Russian. Who else is going to lease us a nuclear powered submarine? The Russians provided a lot of technical assistance on the Arihant Class. Do you expect the Americans now to take on that role? How are you planning to replace all this? In the blink of an eye?
Apart from hurting Russia, members in the US Congress have created CAATSA to embarrass the President of the United States. The US Administration is not that interested in enforcing CAATSA, because that means tacit admission from the US Administration that Russia interfered in the 2016 US Presidential Elections. And for as long as Donald Trump is President, expect little movement on CAATSA vis-à-vis India.
