CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Rakesh » 27 Jun 2019 23:21

‘In India we trust’ would be good US policy
https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/ ... icy-52345/

Three issues, in particular, stand out: India’s recent data localisation measures; the purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile defence system; and, oil trade with Iran. The Trump Administration's usual negotiating idiosyncrasies—unilateral economic measures and sanctions to use later as bargaining chips—have already preceded the visit.


The US is being typically sanctimonious while seeking to dictate to India the terms of engagement with others. When Washington has maintained promiscuous defence relationships with several partners in West Asia and the extended Middle East, including with Pakistan, why expect India to act differently? India will maintain multiple defence and strategic partnerships based on its national security requirements.


India must make clear what role it seeks in the international order and decide upon the means to achieve them.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby kit » 05 Jul 2019 18:17

Turkey Stockpiles Crucial Weapons Parts, Anticipating U.S. Sanctions
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-01/turkey-stockpiles-crucial-arms-parts-anticipating-u-s-sanctions

Turkey turned to Russia to address weaknesses in its air defense after failing to persuade the U.S. to share technology from its Patriot air-defense system as part of any acquisition deal. A missile deal with Moscow was announced in July 2017, and to try to head it off, the State Department last year approved a possible $3.5 billion Patriot sale to Turkey.

Still haunted by a crippling U.S. arms embargo half a century ago, Turkey’s military has been amassing parts for F-16 jets and other military hardware, according to two Turkish officials familiar with their country’s defense strategy. Relations between the two countries deteriorated over the course of the Syrian civil war, when the U.S. armed a Kurdish militia that Turkey views as a terrorist group, and in the aftermath of a 2016 coup attempt against Erdogan that his government blames on a Turkish imam residing in the U.S.


As India's list of US origin equipment grows, should we start hoarding spares as well ? Is the leeway for getting US high tech actually a curse rather than a blessing ?

Does India even have a gameplan in place if relations with US go south ?

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby ArjunPandit » 05 Jul 2019 20:08

Kissinger had a statment: being the enemy of US is dangerous, being a friend is lethal. Look what happened to UK and US.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby kit » 11 Mar 2020 15:35

No CAATSA guarantees for India despite growing defence-trade ties with US
https://www.janes.com/article/94795/no-caatsa-guarantees-for-india-despite-growing-defence-trade-ties-with-us

As the United States and India continue to strengthen their defence trade partnership, the spectre of penalties related to the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) remains a risk that India is not safeguarded against, it has been confirmed to Jane's .

Despite some media reports in India suggesting that the Asian country has been awarded 'waiver' status under CAATSA - effectively shielding it from US sanctions linked to purchases of Russian military equipment - a US Department of State official told Jane's such country-specific dispensations are not made available under the Act.

"While we cannot prejudge whether a specific transaction would result in sanctions, it is important to note that CAATSA does not have any blanket or country-specific waiver provision," said the official. "There are strict criteria for considering a waiver, and each transaction is evaluated on a case-by-case basis. The Secretary of State has not made any determination regarding the significance of any transaction involving India."

CAATSA was enacted in 2017 in response to Russia's alleged interference in the 2016 US presidential election and the annexation of Crimea. Since its introduction the US government has imposed penalties on China and Turkey over their respective procurements of Russian Almaz-Antei S-400 air defence systems. In October 2019 India ordered five S-400 systems for USD5.5 billion.

In the spirit of CAATSA, the US Department of State official urged US allies to cease such military procurements from Russia. However, the official did not confirm whether CAATSA-related penalties were the subject of discussions between the two governments during high-level diplomatic meetings in New Delhi in late February.

"Without commentating on private diplomatic conversations, I can confirm that we urge all of our allies and partners to forgo transactions with Russia that risk triggering sanctions under CAATSA," said the US Department of State official

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Rakesh » 11 Mar 2020 18:38

This is the same thing they have been saying for a while now. Why is Janes publishing the same thing again?

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby kit » 11 Mar 2020 20:36

?testing the waters,to see a response ? .. maybe they are just idiots , the right hand doesn't know what the left is doing.. also there is no "India" section / office at the Pentagon anymore. Gonna get interesting, it might take the POTUS intervention to cancel a new "bill" sponsored by anti Indian Congress (wo)man , it all looks like a prelude to me. Also will set of a trend of president requiring to certify India as an ally for waivers annually.. just to keep needling India and putting it on tenderhooks , but there is a big difference they don't understand, India is spending its own money ! .. also they can kiss any sort of fighter plane deal goodbye

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Rakesh » 12 Mar 2020 04:17

If this is new, then this is short sighted. We get it. There is no blanker waiver. How many times must you say it? :D

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby kit » 12 Mar 2020 04:53

Rakesh wrote:If this is new, then this is short sighted. We get it. There is no blanker waiver. How many times must you say it? :D


Honestly thats what confounds me "The lady doth protest too much, methinks" :mrgreen:

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Cain Marko » 12 Mar 2020 06:28

IMVVVHO - all this will blow over, and soon. India will rise dramatically if it manages COVID as well as it looks (touchwood, nazar utarao)! Many US MNCs including defence giants will line up to MKI/MII. Ultimately all US admins are tied to the bottomline via the F500 - esp. the MIC, and the WILL take India's interests in consideration if they want to thrive!

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Bharadwaj » 27 May 2020 13:08

The elephant in the room needs immediate addressing. The Tejas needs an alternate engine and if the French are willing to sort the Kaveri we should pay the asking price. With a serious risk of Biden and the Dems getting power soon we may lose the G.E supply if they resort to sanctions. We have been caught out in the past and need to be ready. When it comes to the Tejas it is better to be paranoid.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Aditya_V » 27 May 2020 13:25

In that case at least keep some additional engines in India. So we can last a few years with production till we get alternatives.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby srai » 27 May 2020 14:12

^^^
Sanctions for what?

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Yagnasri » 27 May 2020 14:17

srai wrote:^^^
Sanctions for what?


Then do not need any reason. Dems as a party is more anti-Indian just like labour party of UK. .

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby arvin » 27 May 2020 14:17

Sanctions could be for anything e.g they dont like Modi's face.
Too late for mk1, mk1A and NP1 for alternate engines. They have to live with F404.
For mk2 and beyond EJ 200 should be alternate engine.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Manish_P » 27 May 2020 14:24

srai wrote:^^^
Sanctions for what?

How about CAATSA for starters.. or new variants thereof (say PAASTA or NAASTA or a nashta of pasta :roll: )

India, facing sanctions for Russian arms deals, says it wants to pivot spending to the US

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby srai » 27 May 2020 14:35

^^^
That is under Trump Administration. He has been pretty unpredictable to say the least to “allies”.

Regardless, whichever party in power there needs to be a strong reason to force sanctions. Not easy with various geopolitics in play.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Rakesh » 27 May 2020 17:38

Manish_P wrote:
srai wrote:^^^
Sanctions for what?

How about CAATSA for starters.. or new variants thereof (say PAASTA or NAASTA or a nashta of pasta :roll: )

India, facing sanctions for Russian arms deals, says it wants to pivot spending to the US

Nothing new in the article.

Harsh Shringla is the Indian Ambassador to the United States. He has to feed the domestic audience.

Putting sanctions on India over the S-400 purchase would be the most asinine act in the Indo-US relationship. I am confident that wiser minds will prevail in the GOTUS. Too much at stake over this.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Rakesh » 23 Jul 2020 16:52

To go beyond the basic level of co-operation, requires a different relationship and Foreign Minister Jaishankar just put out this. Click on the link below and read all the tweets by Nayanima Basu.

https://twitter.com/NayanimaBasu/status ... 43904?s=20 ---> The U.S. has to learn to work in a more multipolar world and go beyond alliances, says External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar.

The above quote is from this article below...

With desire for ‘higher gear’ and ‘new age of ambition’, India-US embrace becomes tighter
https://theprint.in/diplomacy/with-desi ... er/466353/
22 July 2020
“I think the US really has to learn to work with a more multipolar world with more plurilateral arrangements, go beyond alliances with which it has grown up over the last two generations,” Jaishankar added.

He said, “Given our history of independence and the fact that we really are coming from different places, there will be issues on which our convergence will be more, somewhere it will be less. I think the quest in the last 20 years, and I see that continuing into the future, is really to find a more common ground.”

After reading the above twitter feed and article, check out these tweets from Jeff M Smith, a Research Fellow at the South Asia-Heritage Foundation in response to Foreign Minister Jaishankar's statement.

https://twitter.com/Cold_Peace_/status/ ... 24032?s=20 ---> I suspect he was saying the old US alliance network isn't sufficient to deal with 21st century challenges. U.S. will have to look beyond allies, work with new strategic partners like India.

https://twitter.com/Cold_Peace_/status/ ... 39203?s=20 ---> I must be clairvoyant. Or maybe it was obvious what he was getting at but it didn't suit a certain narrative.

https://twitter.com/Cold_Peace_/status/ ... 81574?s=20 ---> This a variation on a theme I've heard from Indian colleagues for years: you're too wedded to the alliance system of the 20th Century, you need to think outside the box, reform legalistic bureaucracy, be more flexible in creating new strategic partnerships, etc. I largely agree.

And below are random tweets from twitter users, in response to Jeff Smith's tweets....

https://twitter.com/devansh287/status/1 ... 06176?s=20 ---> Most American "allies", as of now, are more like American protectorates with internal autonomy. All of them rely on US military to protect them against Russia and/or China. To better counter the Chinese threat, America needs to develop partnerships, not protectorates.

https://twitter.com/yyogesh001/status/1 ... 92064?s=20 ---> India and US still hesitate to forge a formal alliance. On one end, India wants to be "partner" with US in Indo Pacific and on another end, US wants India to be an "ally" like its NATO allies.

https://twitter.com/roflbaba/status/128 ... 21408?s=20 ---> Jeff, the point is Strategic cooperation doesn't translate to the USA setting up a military base in your country anymore. World has evolved, strategies need to evolve too.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Rakesh » 23 Jul 2020 16:59

Another one from Jeff M Smith in response to another South Asia analyst....

https://twitter.com/Cold_Peace_/status/ ... 46432?s=20 ---> @JJCarafano ahead of the curve: "What’s needed is a common [India-US] security framework that doesn’t require a formal alliance and does allow for common operational capabilities. At the same time, it must also let India 'unplug' to deal with its own regional security concerns."

https://twitter.com/JJCarafano/status/1 ... 73152?s=20 ---> US-India strategic partnership is key. Indeed, the free world has to come together to protect the equities of the free world or they will be under constant, debilitating assault.

https://twitter.com/JJCarafano/status/1 ... 50882?s=20 ---> Long argued that US needs partnerships for the 21st century not the 20th.
[Date of this tweet is 22 July 2020 in which he quotes his own article below from 2017]

A strong U.S.-India partnership is in our strategic interest
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/st ... rest-23624
12 Dec 2017

The U.S.-India relationship doesn’t fit well into either the category of friend or ally. What is driving strategic convergence between Washington and Delhi is Beijing. But the United states and India don’t need a treaty alliance. It is not about deferring to Indian sensibilities that may cling to the country’s nonalignment legacy, or crave strategic autonomy, or envision India as independent balancer in South Asia. No. There just isn’t a need for a defensive alliance to deal with China.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Rakesh » 23 Jul 2020 17:30

Yet another one from Jeff M Smith....

https://twitter.com/Cold_Peace_/status/ ... 27043?s=20 ----> Not ideal. But not a surprise to anyone that's done any work on India. I'm resigned to the fact we're probably not ever going to be able to dictate who India can buy arms from. Just as India can't dictate who we sell arms to. Trying to do so will only create unnecessary friction.

==============================================

86 per cent of Indian military equipment of Russian origin: Stimson Center paper
https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... r-6517136/
22 July 2020

The dependence is likely to continue because more than 55% of Indian defence imports since 2014 have been from Russia.

https://twitter.com/SushantSin/status/1 ... 60480?s=20 ----> Among all the talk of India-US defence cooperation, the fact remains that 86% of military equipment in service with the Indian armed forces is of Russian origin. And it is not ending soon as 55% of defence imports since 2014 have been from Russia. I report...

https://twitter.com/SushantSin/status/1 ... 94595?s=20 ---> Data from a new Stimson Center working paper by @splalwani @frank11285 et al shows that 41% of Indian Navy's and two-thirds of the IAF’s equipment is of Russian origin. While the figure for the Army is a whopping 90%. The data is based on nearly 10,000 major pieces of equipment.

https://twitter.com/SushantSin/status/1 ... 28384?s=20 ---> "Because this dependence will endure for decades due to the long lifespan of these systems, an enhanced US-India strategic cooperation will have to figure out ways to work around this, ranging from policies (like CAATSA) to military interoperability”: @splalwani

https://twitter.com/SushantSin/status/1 ... 63424?s=20 ---> This doesn't mean that there is no US military equipment in service, but it is lesser in quantity compared to the Russian-origin equipment. Apache and Chinook helicopters, M777 howitzer guns, C-17 and C-130J air lifters, P-8I submarine hunters are some of the major US platforms.

https://twitter.com/SushantSin/status/1 ... 60194?s=20 ---> Navy’s only aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya and its only nuclear attack submarine, Chakra II, are from Russia. Army's MBT T-90, IAF's mainstay Su30 MKI fighter aircraft, only nuclear-capable supersonic cruise missile Brahmos... S400 on its way, the list of Russian stuff is long.

https://twitter.com/SushantSin/status/1 ... 45760?s=20 ---> Even after the BJP government came to power in 2014, Russia continues to occupy the prime position as India’s defence supplier, with US$9.3 billion worth of exports to India. The US trails a distant second, with defence supplies worth US$2.3 billion to India in the same period.

https://twitter.com/SushantSin/status/1 ... 51907?s=20 ---> [N/N] Bottomline: India has diversified its defence imports but Russia remains the pre-eminent supplier of military equipment. The dependency continues even now, and these systems will be in military service for decades. It has real, serious implications for defence cooperation.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Rakesh » 04 Aug 2020 00:16

US defence planners must appreciate India’s dependence on Russian arms: American think-tank scholar
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 088799.cms
21 July 2020

By Sameer Lalwani - a senior fellow for Asia strategy and director of the South Asia Program at the Stimson Center, in a recent article titled ‘Revelations and Opportunities: What the United States Can Learn from the Sino-Indian Crisis’ have suggested that “American defense policymakers and analysts should lean into this opportunity to improve ties with India, but also draw important lessons from this still unfolding episode to inform future strategy.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Rakesh » 04 Aug 2020 00:18

The U.S. Wants India as a Real Ally, Not Another Helpless Dependent
https://spectator.org/the-u-s-wants-ind ... dependent/
26 July 2020

By Doug Bandow

Any alliance can’t be modeled on anything like NATO.

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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby Rakesh » 04 Aug 2020 00:20

China shouldn’t view us through US lens. That would be a great disservice, says S Jaishankar
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 307398.cms
02 Aug 2020


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