INS Arihant: News & Discussion

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tsarkar
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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby tsarkar » 06 Nov 2018 10:58

Prasad wrote:Image

arshyam wrote:How accurate is that pic in the background? Seems as official as it could get with the PM himself in the foreground, but looks different from the 2009 launch pic (see the tapering hull in the front).


It's the real thing. Exactly as I described it to Gagan whose rendering has been the most accurate image around.

The model presented to PM is terribly poorly done, though!

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby tsarkar » 06 Nov 2018 11:05

Rakesh wrote:https://twitter.com/SandeepUnnithan/status/1059367098072350720 --->
Rare closeup of Arihant. Unusual aft section, reveals Borei design influence.

There is NO Borei influence. Ask Sandeep if Borei has the streamlining that is there in Arihant? The streamlining is closer to Vanguard class than Borei. Reality is that it's an INDIAN design but some dhimmis haven't taken their blinkers off. There was lots of Russian help including the reactor but the hull form is a totally Indian design.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby tsarkar » 06 Nov 2018 11:12

hnair wrote:Darn it! Still no center-spread photos of the vessel to drool over! It has been 10 long years since she got pushed out!

Rakesh wrote:The only side profile pic of the Arihant that I have seen to date....

The side profile of Arihant has been published since 14 October 2017

Image

Note the Chetak flying air cover while its leaving harbour

Look at this image and you'll realise the model has the sail too large compared to the hull. Also the hull shape is terribly misshapen in the model.

If only people bothered to look in the right place :D instead of getting lost in the clutter.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 06 Nov 2018 11:45

There is a youtube video of arihant entering vizag harbour escorted by tugs

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 06 Nov 2018 11:49

Vanguard class

Image

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby naruto » 06 Nov 2018 12:36

Singha wrote:There is a youtube video of arihant entering vizag harbour escorted by tugs


Image

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Gagan » 06 Nov 2018 16:15

That model is of a Scorpene sub. It is poor quality
Specially if you look at the sail to body ratio in terms of their relative sizes, it is a scorpene

My feeling is, multiple K-15s, several of them N tipped would have been deployed.
This is the first publically acknowledged ‘deterrant’ patrol, which I will take to understand that there have been other deployments as well
PM referred to Nuclear Blackmailers, so part of the deployment must have been in the Arabian Sea
PM also referred to a ‘month long’ deployment, which is way short than this boat is capable of

The aft end has similarities to the Soviet Delta Class. Even the sail has a mix of kilo & Delta Class similarity, although there are very clear 877 Kilo class-esque Sonar placements on the Fore an Sail.

But these similarities apart, this is a uniquely indian design! There is none like it in the world! This is only the exterior. It is the thousands of parts inside, that make it very unique and Indian. Very likely MFDs, components, fittings from Indian companies. Aesthetically built crew quarters like on the P-17 frigates etc. The emphasis on crew comfort hopefully matches or exceeds the U-209

Just my humble opinion
Last edited by Gagan on 06 Nov 2018 17:08, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Karthik S » 06 Nov 2018 16:52

Gurus, any reason why the sub is not shown to the public?

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby krishna_krishna » 06 Nov 2018 18:03

Rakesh wrote:https://twitter.com/SandeepUnnithan/status/1059367098072350720 --->
Rare closeup of Arihant. Unusual aft section, reveals Borei design influence.

Disagree, Look at the sails for picture posted by singha of vanguard and Arihant totally different. The full view definitely show Russian design influence, although borei has a different tube structure (more flat on top) so I would not call it closer to borei but definitely Russian and definitely no way streamlining closer to vanguard.

Happy Diwali to all the brfites. And Diwali gift for porki lurkers, here is video from horses mouth that shows INS Arihant has fired multiple times. So all the claim of untested mizzile test from sub will have to remain in realm of goat dreams :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7OVkapI2oSE

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby arshyam » 06 Nov 2018 20:05

It is interesting to note that the Navy went with the Amriki classification and designated the Arihant as SSBN-80. There was a discussion in the older thread where some stalwarts (tsarkar-ji?) had argued that the Arihant was neither an SSN nor an SSBN, and was a unique type amongst world navies. Sort of a swing role platform, if you will. I was hoping the official designation would reflect some of that*, but SSBN it finally is. Maybe we want to keep the deterrence signalling unambiguous between conventional and nuclear weapons.

* Since diesels are designated S-xx, I was expecting something like SN-xx, or SNB-xx.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Varoon Shekhar » 06 Nov 2018 20:06

^
Good video, is that Shekhar Gupta speaking so effusively and positively about an Indian defense achievement? Quite rare! Is really upbeat, mentions private sector contribution, and Russian help, without exaggerating it.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Karthik S » 06 Nov 2018 20:25

arshyam wrote:It is interesting to note that the Navy went with the Amriki classification and designated the Arihant as SSBN-80. There was a discussion in the older thread where some stalwarts (tsarkar-ji?) had argued that the Arihant was neither an SSN nor an SSBN, and was a unique type amongst world navies. Sort of a swing role platform, if you will. I was hoping the official designation would reflect some of that*, but SSBN it finally is. Maybe we want to keep the deterrence signalling unambiguous between conventional and nuclear weapons.

* Since diesels are designated S-xx, I was expecting something like SN-xx, or SNB-xx.


IMO Arihanth is a TD. Need to wait till 13k T walas come.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby prasannasimha » 06 Nov 2018 20:41

Very likely K4 testing was complete quite some time back and they have now declared it operational.Taking a possible winter push in sensitive areas this may have been posted as a warning.
Flooding etc must have been true - it would have flooded the tube after launching a silent notice..

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby prasannasimha » 06 Nov 2018 20:42

There will be no technology demonstrator when we are spending billions. It will be in use and improvements over this are planned and in progress.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby yensoy » 06 Nov 2018 21:52

prasannasimha wrote:There will be no technology demonstrator when we are spending billions. It will be in use and improvements over this are planned and in progress.


Yes, this is a "technology demonstrator" of a technology which should never be demonstrated. A "TD" is sufficient for deterrence purposes as long as it can carry a few missiles and cruise undetected for a month.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Philip » 06 Nov 2018 22:00

It is an SSBN because its primary weaponry is N-tipped BMs meant for both China and Pak.For a v.long time to come it will remain in this role until we have sufficient numbers of newer SSBNs with longer-ranged missiles.Perhaps after this happens, like US Ohios, it will revert to an SSGN role.One reason why it isn't an attack boat is its smaller reactor and lower speed UW.Attack boats generally have a top speed of over 30 kts.The Sov. era titanium hulled Alfa had a top speed of over 40 kts.

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Re: Indian Navy News & Discussion - 03 July 2018

Postby ArjunPandit » 06 Nov 2018 23:50

Earlier this year there were some discussions about Aridhaman/Arighat thing? Could it be that IN used one of the two boats under repair under the guise as arihant. While arihant had its deterrence patrol.
Even wiki page has been altered to the effect of two submarines. I always thought we had three planed.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby SBajwa » 06 Nov 2018 23:59

So we have two operational SSBNs INS Chakra and INS Arihant! is that a valid statement?

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Snehashis » 07 Nov 2018 00:46

SBajwa wrote:So we have two operational SSBNs INS Chakra and INS Arihant! is that a valid statement?



INS Chakra is a SSN. It does not carry or has no provision to carry any SLBM.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby nam » 07 Nov 2018 00:46

SBajwa wrote:So we have two operational SSBNs INS Chakra and INS Arihant! is that a valid statement?


Yes & No. :D

We "may" have two SSBN operational.

However Ins Chakra is not one of them, as it is a SSN.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Jayram » 07 Nov 2018 01:45

krishna_krishna wrote:Happy Diwali to all the brfites. And Diwali gift for porki lurkers, here is video from horses mouth that shows INS Arihant has fired multiple times. So all the claim of untested mizzile test from sub will have to remain in realm of goat dreams :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7OVkapI2oSE


Such an great Indian Video and ethos.. One of the most important discussions on our Nuclear triad taking place in the open next to autos and bystanders walking by with no clue who this gentleman is.. Love it..

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby salaam » 07 Nov 2018 02:02

nam wrote:
SBajwa wrote:So we have two operational SSBNs INS Chakra and INS Arihant! is that a valid statement?


Yes & No. :D

We "may" have two+ SSBN operational.

However Ins Chakra is not one of them, as it is a SSN.


There I changed it for you ;)

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Khalsa » 07 Nov 2018 05:12

Rakesh wrote:The Indian Navy (and India) lost an icon - Vice Admiral Manohar Prahlad Awati, PVSM, VrC, (Retd). I would like to believe that he has joined Varuna to watch over the Arihant (and her sisters) on her deterrence patrols. Shano Varuna!

Image

Shano Varuna!
Rest in Peace Kind Sir

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby ramana » 07 Nov 2018 05:56

Karthik S wrote:Gurus, any reason why the sub is not shown to the public?



No operational deterrent sub is shown to public.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby chola » 07 Nov 2018 06:12

A paucity of illustrations of what Arihant looks like below the waves. Not a bad thing for a submarine.

But I like to see some speculative illustrations.

How close is this one?
Image

This? Seems to be the most realistic one.
Image

This one seems a bit off.
Image

Opinions on which is nearest to real thing?

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Khalsa » 07 Nov 2018 06:59

The second one is an Akula graphic used by a media house.
Its the first one that is the closest.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby hnair » 07 Nov 2018 07:45

Interesting to see the SSBN designation, because it is a very flexible platform like the Virginia class. Probably some international standard for long range detergent carriers?

But in general, the Arihant is the first in the world to implement those single-line Universal Payload Module concept on a thinner beam than regular SSBNs. Khan, with its plethora of fat tubes floating around, is in no hurry, but still is slowly moving towards this flexible design via adding a lot more Virginia Payload Modules, aft of the sail.

The Block V submarines built from 2019 onward will have an additional Virginia Payload Module (VPM) mid-body section, increasing their overall length. The VPM will add four more VPTs of the same diameter and greater height, located on the centerline, carrying up to seven Tomahawk missiles apiece, that would replace some of the capabilities lost when the SSGN conversion Ohio-class submarines are retired from the fleet
.....
.....
The VPM could potentially carry (non-nuclear) medium-range ballistic missiles


But damn, one can only wish they publish a single good pic of this Big Black fish! Decades of waiting....

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby prasannasimha » 07 Nov 2018 08:33

hnair wrote:Interesting to see the SSBN designation, because it is a very flexible platform like the Virginia class. Probably some international standard for long range detergent carriers?

But in general, the Arihant is the first in the world to implement those single-line Universal Payload Module concept on a thinner beam than regular SSBNs. Khan, with its plethora of fat tubes floating around, is in no hurry, but still is slowly moving towards this flexible design via adding a lot more Virginia Payload Modules, aft of the sail.

The Block V submarines built from 2019 onward will have an additional Virginia Payload Module (VPM) mid-body section, increasing their overall length. The VPM will add four more VPTs of the same diameter and greater height, located on the centerline, carrying up to seven Tomahawk missiles apiece, that would replace some of the capabilities lost when the SSGN conversion Ohio-class submarines are retired from the fleet
.....
.....
The VPM could potentially carry (non-nuclear) medium-range ballistic missiles


But damn, one can only wish they publish a single good pic of this Big Black fish! Decades of waiting....

Image

This is the maximum we will see as no one will show the propeller etc

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 07 Nov 2018 10:46

in ww2 the IJN built several Arihant sized submarines with seaplane hangers on top with a plan to bombard west coast cities and damage the panama canal locks. the muricans stole that idea and repurposed the hangers to house the regulus missile which were launched off a inclined rail from their first improvised SSBNs, before the proper VL tube model subs came long...the regulus missile was itself stolen from the V1 :lol:
it had to surface to fire

6500t, 112m long



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Growler_(SSG-577)


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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 07 Nov 2018 10:52

I would look for the pakis to get some Yuan subs modified for such purposes if they can obtain or develop a compact solid fuel n-missile.

time and again they have improvised to find solutions with limited means, like using sidewinder heat seeking missiles to target our posts in snow capped areas.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby hnair » 07 Nov 2018 11:25

prasannasimha wrote:
This is the maximum we will see as no one will show the propeller etc


1) I did not ask for shots of its propellors or exotic shots of its insides, but normal pics of it moored, at sea etc.
2) please do not quote my entire post...
3) There are so many pics of nuclear submarine propulsors from both Westand Russia (there is a detailed series of photos of the experimental pump-jet in Alrosa)

Every other nuclear navy has excellent photos that give away nothing. We are kind of verging on North Korean grade secrecy on this one. Maybe there are reasons not known to us.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Khalsa » 07 Nov 2018 15:02

Singha wrote:I would look for the pakis to get some Yuan subs modified for such purposes if they can obtain or develop a compact solid fuel n-missile.

time and again they have improvised to find solutions with limited means, like using sidewinder heat seeking missiles to target our posts in snow capped areas.


I would love to see the Chinese give help to the Pakistan with SSB or SSBN tech
nuclear reactor and/or missiles.

Yes please Dragon, give give everything to the looneys, covertly or openly who cares.
Bring your reputation crashing down and truly be known as the giant Nation that counts amongst its closest friends

1. North Korea
2. Pakistan

Yeaaahhhppp.... slow clap is now in progress, Xi Xi

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby nam » 07 Nov 2018 15:26

Singha wrote:I would look for the pakis to get some Yuan subs modified for such purposes if they can obtain or develop a compact solid fuel n-missile.

.


I sure hope that happens. Pak going all Chini means our counter system would work on both the western & eastern front.

Better than having to facing western kit on west, chini kit on east. Getting Pak off Khan's weapon gravy train, is our biggest achievement in recent years.

And as Cheen becomes the numero uno threat for the boys in west, everyone will be creating counter to Chini weapons. Makes our life easier.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Philip » 07 Nov 2018 16:10

Akulas are more properly SSGNs,as they carry a useful load of cruise missiles too,apart from being tasked for attack.
It will be v.interesting to see what config our future SSNs are like.Probably closer to the Arihant in size,may be slightly smaller,but with a more streamlined sail for faster speeds.Smaller Akulas with Yasen input?

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby vishal » 07 Nov 2018 16:16

tsarkar wrote:
hnair wrote:Darn it! Still no center-spread photos of the vessel to drool over! It has been 10 long years since she got pushed out!

Rakesh wrote:The only side profile pic of the Arihant that I have seen to date....

The side profile of Arihant has been published since 14 October 2017

Image

Note the Chetak flying air cover while its leaving harbour

Look at this image and you'll realise the model has the sail too large compared to the hull. Also the hull shape is terribly misshapen in the model.

If only people bothered to look in the right place :D instead of getting lost in the clutter.


Is it the angle at which the pic was taken or does Arihant look considerably bigger than a 6,000 ton boat?

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 07 Nov 2018 16:44

To me it looks size and shape of a 688 class boat about 110m long which fits a 6500-7000t weight

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Vips » 07 Nov 2018 18:45

Singha wrote:I would look for the pakis to get some Yuan subs modified for such purposes if they can obtain or develop a compact solid fuel n-missile.

time and again they have improvised to find solutions with limited means, like using sidewinder heat seeking missiles to target our posts in snow capped areas.


Heh Heh Shitistani's working overtime to convince the abduls - All is well, All is well :D

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Vips » 07 Nov 2018 19:59

India’s Arihant patrol completion crucial but ‘triad’ not yet complete: C UdayBhaskar.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s tweet on Monday which read “India’s pride, nuclear submarine INS Arihant successfully completed its first deterrence patrol" marks the first official acknowledgement by India that the country has now acquired a credible underwater deterrent.

Today is historic because it marks the completing of the successful establishment of the nuclear triad. India's nuclear triad will be an important pillar of global peace and stability.

The Arihant patrol is a modest but critical first step in demonstrating the operational credibility of the submarine. However, this single achievement does not axiomatically lead to the conclusion that India’s ‘triad’ is now complete.

The classical triad in nuclear deterrence is an amalgam of a complex and rigorous distillate of three different strands—the land-based missile with a nuclear warhead, a similar air-borne capability, and finally the sea-based under-water deterrent. Currently only the US and Russia among the nuclear 5 have the resources and the pedigree to claim such a capability. Even France and China have trimmed their deterrence sails. Paris, for instance, maintains only a sea-based and an air-borne deterrent capability. The classical triad is not proving to be as cost-effective as it was once perceived.

India is located in a very challenging weapons of mass destruction (WMD) region, what is euphemistically referred to as “a rough neighbourhood” and the fact that both its nuclear capable neighbours (China and Pakistan) are in a deep and covert WMD cooperation framework compounds the challenge for Delhi. Add to this the fact that Pakistan has also used its nuclear capability to shield its terrorism investment and the strategic picture becomes even more muddy.

Thus India’s WMD challenge is not two separate dyads insulated from each other but an overlapping one. The Arihant serves to render robust the underwater deterrent and the signalling is more relevant to the nuclear 5 about the Indian profile.

It merits recall that China, which currently has a larger WMD arsenal than India, acquired its nuclear weapon n October 1964. A decade later, Beijing test-fired its first submarine launched missile but had a series of problems in signalling its submarine deterrent patrol. This is a domain where verifiable information is scanty but it is understood that China carried out its first deterrent SSBN patrol successfully in October 2015. The missile on this boat is considered to be a sea-based variant of the Dongfeng- 4 series with a range upwards of 5,000km. In contrast, the Arihant is estimated to have a missile with a range in hundreds of kms. The differential index of relative deterrence needs little reiteration.

However, the SSBN as a platform, which is what Arihant is generically, is not meant for war-fighting but to maintain, nay impose peace in an uneasy strategic environment.

During the Cold War, the two adversaries—the US and the former USSR maintained these silent denizens of the deep on the “prowl” 24X7 for 365 days of the year—for decades. This prowl is the deterrent patrol that the Arihant has just completed and returned to its home port Visakhapatnam where the crew was felicitated.

To place this in context and review how truly credible and robust deterrence is maintained by a medium power, France provides a cue. Paris maintains four SSBNs and the first French deterrent patrol was concluded successfully in March 1972. Over the last 46 years, France has carried out 500 such deterrent patrols and marked this milestone on October this year.

During this period, French SSBNs clocked 37,240 hours underwater with the bare minimum of permissible communication. This kind of rigour ensured that the index of strategic assurance that France was seeking during the Cold War (when there was only one adversary) and in the transition to the post Cold War strategic environment, where the nature of the threat to French sovereignty is not as tangible, has been ensured.

The completion of the first patrol by the Arihant is cause for satisfaction but it would be misleading to extrapolate in an expansive manner from this first operational punctuation.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby barath_s » 07 Nov 2018 20:05

arshyam wrote:It is interesting to note that the Navy went with the Amriki classification and designated the Arihant as SSBN-80. There was a discussion in the older thread where some stalwarts (tsarkar-ji?) had argued that the Arihant was neither an SSN nor an SSBN, and was a unique type amongst world navies. Sort of a swing role platform, if you will. I was hoping the official designation would reflect some of that*, but SSBN it finally is. Maybe we want to keep the deterrence signalling unambiguous between conventional and nuclear weapons.

* Since diesels are designated S-xx, I was expecting something like SN-xx, or SNB-xx.


SS =Submarine aka Ship,submersible

B = Ballistic missile

N= Nuclear powered

It makes no specific reference to whether the ballistic missiles have nuclear warheads or not....

Arihant certainly is a nuclear powered submarine carrying ballistic missile, thus SSBN

If it had no ballistic missiles, and instead had only cruise missiles, it would be a SSGN. However, keep in mind that in history, you have had soviet and israeli submarines that had nuclear tipped cruise missiles and further, that there are nuclear torpedoes. Also, the us has had and is redeveloping nuclear warheads for tomahawks, launchable from vls. Thus it is constrained more by doctrine and treaty than technology . in fact, one of the favourite russian pastimes is accusing a vls (eg mk 41 used in aegis) of being able to fire nuclear tomahawks, with no more than a software change/setting. ie The name is less important than the capability.

USN Hill classification scheme: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hull_clas ... arine_type

Thus diesel powered Barberowith capability to launch Regulus nuclear tipped cruise missiles was a SSG.

Now Arihant could have been thought of or used as the forerunner of the attack class design, but everyone knows that it is designed for and carries ballistic missiles. If those tubes are removed, one might consider reclassifying it.
Last edited by barath_s on 07 Nov 2018 22:09, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby barath_s » 07 Nov 2018 21:51

Vips wrote:India’s Arihant patrol completion crucial but ‘triad’ not yet complete: C UdayBhaskar.

...The Arihant patrol is a modest but critical first step in demonstrating the operational credibility ...
.... This is a domain where verifiable information is scanty but it is understood that China carried out its first deterrent SSBN patrol successfully in October 2015. The missile on this boat is considered to be a sea-based variant of the Dongfeng- 4 series with a range upwards of 5,000km. In contrast, the Arihant is estimated to have a missile with a range in hundreds of kms. ....

However, the SSBN as a platform, which is what Arihant is generically, is not meant for war-fighting but to maintain, nay impose peace in an uneasy strategic environment.....

During the Cold War, the two adversaries—the US and the former USSR maintained these silent denizens of the deep on the “prowl” 24X7 for 365 days of the year—for decades. This prowl is the deterrent patrol that the Arihant has just completed and returned to its home port Visakhapatnam where the crew was felicitated.
...
The completion of the first patrol by the Arihant is cause for satisfaction but it would be misleading to extrapolate in an expansive manner from this first operational punctuation.


An extremely polished article that hits several key points and does so diplomatically. Arihant's milestone is a necessary but still largely symbolic event.

SSBN are preferred because they provide second strike capability - the ability to survive and then strike back. Armed with a 750 km missile, Arihant patrolling the bay of bengal does not strike fear - yet.

India has used strategic depth, numbers and long range Road mobile canisterized ballistic missiles etc to provide elements of survivable, second strike capability against Pakistan (and to a lesser extent, China). Pakistan's development of long range missiles, enabled by China,N.Korea and Pakistani efforts will tend to degrade this over time. Indian SSBNs could qualitatively change the equations in the future.

India's air element of the triad rests on Mirage and Jaguar's and will hopefully move to the Rafale ; the obsolescence of the current platforms and the sheer strategic depth of China reduce deterrent effect.

As geography indicates, the Arihant in the BoB with a 750 km missile is not necessarily aimed at Pakistan yet. Still less yet at China. Survivability and plausibility of deterrence are also hard won over time. A submarine can still be tracked , by air, sea,underwater and seabed.

The Soviets braved the GIUK (Greenland, Iceland UK bottlenecks) gap to send their nukes off the coast of the US. However, it is a cinch, that some would have been tracked and in case of escalation, sunk. When the soviets had developed sufficiently long range SLBM, they moved to the bastionconcept. Here their submarines stayed in the nearby and friendly confines of the sea of okhotsk/barents sea, protected by ships, subs and air from enemies who would intrude and eliminate the soviet threat.

There's reasonable groundsto suggest that India may move to such a concept, with bastions in the eastern bay of bengal. But the protection element is still scanty, leaving it vulnerable to enemy penetration. India has a few stealth surface vessels and barely a single SSN to act as bastion escort and there can be calls for carrier task force protection demands too. Nor is the us/french/uk strategy of roaming deep and wide ocean without perils for India - given increasing penetration of sophisticated Chinese submarines and other potential enemies.

China has built SSBN since 1987 and yet a deterrent patrol was talked of in 2015. The first generations of chinese nukes were noisy and did not cause sleepless nights for the US and their allies (armed with sophisticated ASW). The chinese first generation stayed close to harbor and to flash points like Taiwan. China has built up strengths in sonar including towed array technologies.

The Arihant represents the first generation Indian design. While one hopes that these are therefore as silent and stealthy as the latest western or russian submarines, it would be tough to bet 1.3 billion lives on guaranteeing it so. Especially since this is the first indigenous sub designed or built in India; further the operational track record of the Indian navy in submarines and elsewhere is rather less than perfect. When a single scrape of a spoon can lead to destruction of the boat, extremely high sustained levels of proficiency, dedication and skill are required. But these are capabilities that are hard won and slowly, and not only operationally - possibly multiple generations of design and manufacturing too will help.

Just adding extra submarines will help - it's hard to be survivable in port and there are practical & logistical limitations to being out. Further, creating the new base off Vizag and building out Andamans as a base will also help - making it more survivable and less apparent when the sub stealths out to sea. Especially compared to the confines around a major commercial port.

While the Straits of Malacca, Lombok Strait and Sunda Strait represent choke points for india vs china, it cuts both ways - an indian submarine transiting to easy range of China's vitals also risks exposure & tracking - here and in the shallow seas near china. And these choke points are not in control of India.

A multitude of skills are called for - from excellent oceanographic maps (move without easily detectable active sonar) to excellent sensors to missiles, to doctrine, infrastructure, suitable fleet,design and manufacturing excellence,sustained operational excellence etc

In sum, effective deterrence must be hard won over time; there are no short cuts.


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