Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

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ks_sachin
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by ks_sachin »

Pratyush wrote:Relax, all is well.
How so?

The dragon huffs and puffs

The lizard pokes and prods

We behave like the lotus eaters!!
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

Because we are Lotus eaters.

What I have realised is that we are not going to change. We will always be running after the shinning new toys.

The Indian army will artificially create catagory which will be designed explicitly to exclude indigenously designed weapons.

The IAF says that if the production rate is sufficiently high for Mk2 they will order additional units. Without a clue that production rate is a function of orders. The shortfall in numbers will be met by the MRFA and whatever next alphabet soup the IAF creates for imported weapons. But not by indigenous systems.

The navy will spend a decade chasing a nuclear powered aircraft carrier. Only to say that we will build a derivative of Vikrant.

The project 75I is approaching 10 years in running. With extensions upon extensions. Result being that by the time first submarine enters service. All but the last few kilos will out of service + 6 scorpeans.

PRC and TSP by that time are going to have at least 70 nuclear and conventional submarines in service between them. With 8 to 10 of PRC submarines permanently based in the Indian Ocean.

Nuclear submarines are a fantasy with dreams of operating in less than 200 meter deep waters of South China Sea.
Last edited by Pratyush on 24 Dec 2022 19:55, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by KSingh »

fanne wrote:Here is food for thought. No idea if correct, but if it were it changes many things!!
https://defenceupdate.in/chinese-believ ... -true/amp/
Seems very optimistic and based on pure conjecture and assumption (that they met their production targets and additional lines were 100% replicas of the original capacity etc)

And wouldn’t such an inventory cost well in excess of $15bn USD?

The Chinese have an interest to build India’s paper strength up
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Rakesh »

Folks, please read this post from KaranM again ---> viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7686&start=2640#p2573367

After reading the above, now read the below...

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/16063098 ... 4h-mwFf-lA ---> More than 80 crore people will now get free food grains under National Food Security Act. They will not have to pay a single rupee to get food grains till Dec 2023. Govt will spend around Rs 2 lakh crores per year on this: Union Minister Piyush Goyal

===========================

For all my NRI friends who need to translate the above number (Rs 2 lakh crores) into something that is relatable, here it is ---> USD $24+ billion. That is today's exchange rate. And 80 crore people is 800 million people. Feel free to correct my numbers if I am wrong.

But how does this relate to artillery or any procurement for the Indian military? It indeed does have a direct link. This is where our government's priorities lie. One can argue the urgency of procurement, self reliance, mass production, etc. But the end reality is that the Govt cannot ignore the growth and well being of her populace. And this is just free food grains. Imagine the billions spent on Jal Jeevan and other such government schemes. And these schemes have a direct correlation to electoral victories. This is how democracies function.

Now contrast this to China. From the few leaked videos coming out of China we are seeing how the CCP is enforcing the COVID measures there. Apart from the CCP, heaven only knows the real death toll of COVID in China. So when the CCP wants thousands of SR/IRBMs, hundreds of fighters, numerous surface and sub surface naval vessels, countless artillery pieces...than that is what the CCP will get. There is no question-and-answer session in an imaginary parliament in China to question any of this. What the CCP wants, the CCP gets. Is that the situation in India? It is funny when I read that some folks here want us to match China with the above. Good Luck!

Who wants CCP style communism in India? Who is willing to entertain CCP style censorship in India? If people are willing to live with that, then we too can do the same. BJP won two back to back general elections (with resounding majorities) in India and the opposition is whining daily that BJP is turning India into an autocratic Hindu Rashtra! Can you imagine the conniption fit the opposition will have if the BJP did what the CCP is doing? The CCP enforces unity in China via coercion and propaganda. There is a strong sense of nationalism that the CCP likes to portray to the world. Is that the case in India? There are many - individuals and organizations - actively working and publicly partnering with other nations to defame, deface and defeat a democratically elected Indian Government.

Our procurement system is truly broken. MoD is drowning with lobbies. Many Babus are pushing covert agendas in contravention of the Govt. There are many who are eagerly hoping for India to get humiliated (like in 62) just so that the BJP can be removed from governing power. It is amazing how we manage to purchase even a single item. The only way forward (that I see) is to push on ahead with the goal of self reliance, but India is many decades away in achieving that reality because of the obstacles present. Till then, we will purchase from abroad.

The larger picture is this ---> India will be unable to defeat China militarily, at least in the short term. We just do not have the material resources for it. A number of service chiefs have said this. And no alliances with anyone will change that reality either. The goal right now is to work towards in providing deterrence to prevent war and if war is imposed upon India, then to inflict pain to force China to come to the negotiating table. Let us focus on that first - which we are not even doing! - before we entertain fantasies of few thousand home grown artillery pieces, 60+ combat squadrons of home grown aircraft, 250+ desi naval vessels and others.

Investing in home grown (or phoren) artillery, aircraft, naval vessels and other such platforms DO NOT win elections. Please understand and learn to make peace with that reality. The poor and lower middle class in India just does not care and they represent significant portions of the Indian electorate (probably 800 million people or 80 crore as Union Minister Piyush Goyal stated). The other end of the spectrum - the upper middle class and the rich - are living in a reality of their own.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by KSingh »

Rakesh wrote:....
Butter vs bullets is a long established issue in democracies and given the unprecedented costs of the China virus the GoI is managing things as well as they can on the domestic front- it still really irks me that China unleashed that on the world and the damage it’s done to india

However the GoI is playing with fire and they know it. Underfunding defence can have electoral consequences- if PLA get more adventurous during summer 2023 and there’s significant losses for india (men and land) that the GoI cannot hide/spin away.


Hoping the Chinese have other things to think about is hardly a proactive strategy
ramana
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by ramana »

Folks why are we mixing politics into military thread?

Lets accept that we have bunch of extreme patriots who wont be happy till NaMo reveals secrets to them and even then they will not believe as they suffer from Sialkot syndrome.
So first time I will start ignoring.

So once again this is the Artillery thread.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Rakesh »

KSingh wrote:
Rakesh wrote:....
Butter vs bullets is a long established issue in democracies and given the unprecedented costs of the China virus the GoI is managing things as well as they can on the domestic front- it still really irks me that China unleashed that on the world and the damage it’s done to india

However the GoI is playing with fire and they know it. Underfunding defence can have electoral consequences- if PLA get more adventurous during summer 2023 and there’s significant losses for india (men and land) that the GoI cannot hide/spin away.

Hoping the Chinese have other things to think about is hardly a proactive strategy
This is the kind of opposition that the Govt is up against. See this video below...

https://twitter.com/KirenRijiju/status/ ... 4h-mwFf-lA

Now to be fair to Rahul Gandhi, I have not seen the full video. So it will be easy to splice a portion of his speech. But I don't know how his logic can be applied in any situation. And before we dismiss him as a raving lunatic (which he is), it is precisely this dhimmi idea that has laid hold in much of India's polity. And it is this rotten idea that the current Govt is up against. RaGa is just the present manifestation of what the Congress Party since 1947 has always been - a pliant party without a spine and which is available for sale to the highest bidder.

Since this is the artillery thread, let me give an artillery example. From this current competition, lets assume that the Govt selects an Indian artillery gun over ATHOS. All it takes is a single insinuation that the chosen Indian vendor paid a bribe to secure the deal and then everything will be reset. Investigations will be done to confirm the accusation which will take eons. The Indian vendor will be blacklisted till its name is cleared. This could take years. In the meanwhile, the army will ask for an emergency procurement and ATHOS (or another phoren gun) will come.

In Parliament, the opposition will be up in arms...as it gives them fresh ammunition to go up against the Govt. It does not matter if the accusation is false, it only matters that the accusation stays fresh and relevant in the news and with the electorate. Around the world, the following adage holds true ---> It is not what you believe that matters, it is what you can prove. In India and especially with military procurement, the reverse is true because decades pass until a court issues its verdict. By then, it is too late. The ATHOS lobby will have got its commission and the Indian vendor will never again build a gun. Rinse and Repeat.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Rakesh »

ramana wrote:Folks why are we mixing politics into military thread?

Lets accept that we have bunch of extreme patriots who wont be happy till NaMo reveals secrets to them and even then they will not believe as they suffer from Sialkot syndrome.
So first time I will start ignoring.

So once again this is the Artillery thread.
Sorry Ramana-ji, I just saw this. Please delete my post above if you wish. My apologies.
Karan M
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Karan M »

First, let's get this out of the way, things aren't moving as fast as we want, or that the Govt is going to spend on R&D as we want. It's not happening. There, now that's done, let's look towards the rest. Things aren't as we may wish but nor are they absolutely bleak, depressing etc.

Am going to use IAF as an example.

IAF Capex: 52,750 Cr. Let's hope GOI keeps budget at this level at least.

Historically, 30% of the budget has been for prior liabilities. GOI has stopped releasing these numbers too. Let's assume that's still the case.

IAF: 36, 925 Cr, around $4Bn a year

Annual still allows for (rough estimates with assumptions made on number of years of deliveries and Mk2 costs as 1.5x Mk1A ).

Su-30 Upg: 7K Cr
Tejas Mk1A: 8K Cr
Netra Mk2: 2200 Cr
C-295: 2750 Cr
Tejas Mk2: 11 K Cr
MRSAM: 4K Cr
Sensors: 2K Cr

This is how cost effective local production is. As the Tejas Mk1A production, MRSAM complete, you have 12K Cr available for other systems such as SAMs or Nirbhay etc.

In contrast, a single MRFA can wreck the above budget and push out most of the above programs.

IMHO, at best a follow on Rafale buy equivalent to the Tejas Mk1A order should be brought in, only once Tejas Mk2 is formally ordered and paid for, and tye funds equal to Tejas Mk1A estimates above are available.

A MRFA order shouldn't be allowed to wreck the budget. It cannot be sustained at the current budgetary levels without affecting domestic programs.

The around 5K budget available from MRSAM should first flow to the CIWS and then to NG LRSAMs/QRSAM etc.

After a few years even the 30% Precommitted Liabilities will open up. Those funds should be used for additional force multipliers, AMCA, munitions and the BMD setup.

IA is in the toughest spot. Maximum needs, least Capex, lousy procurement policies and messed up revenue to caprmex ratio but even there, the numbers should allow some modernisation.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Karan M »

Now the challenging part is this. The above numbers are assuming the IAF is adding 4 squadrons Mk1A and 6 squadrons Mk2. Assume two more squadrons Rafale. We will add a total of 12 squadrons. We will retire 4 Bison, 3 MiG-29 and 5 Jaguar. So guess what, we just trade one for one.

The squadron levels will remain at a low 14 Su-30, 2.5 Mirage 2000, 4 Rafale, 6 Tejas Mk1/1A, 6 Tejas Mk2. A total of around 32 squadrons.

Of this a mere 4.7 sq of Su-30s will be fully upgraded. We need to upgrade the rest too. Should be able to squeeze it in. Their radars and EW will be local.

The budget needs to be increased to add more Tejas Mk2 or AMCA Mk1 units into the Orbat. The IAF wants six more MRFA instead. Issue is that is $20Bn. Almost entire IAF capex divided over even seven years. Completely unaffordable.

Rahnath Singh recently said Def budget should be 6L Cr versus 5.25 L Cr. That extra 75KCrs if it goes towards Capex can radically change our force posture vs Pak and China.

Biggest thing to keep control of is to ensure pvt sector doesn't take over DPSU screwdriver mantle as many forces regrettably are encouraging them to do so. Focus should be on inducting IDDM gear to the max.

In next few years we will have range of proper homegrown Arty, weapons options. They should all be inducted en masse.

Also AONs should specify induction amount up front. That way, the import lobby in procurement as Ramana sir pointed to, can be hobbled. They will then try sabotaging trials. But even that can be monitored and pushed through. Nothing comes easy.

Desi products from DRDO and partners will end up costing hundreds of billions of dollars in imports so obviously they will be fought tooth and nail by vested interests. Simple comparison, if there was no Tejas Mk1A, a MRFA would have to be imported and it costs double the Tejas does. Life cycle program costs will be 3x the acquisition. So in essence the Tejas Mk1A cost foreign arms vendors $25Bn plus. A Mk2, at six squadrons, will cost them $40Bn. That's a total of $65 Bn from a mere two programs. Now you can see why so many people want the Tejas Mk2 scrapped.

Point is to keep the focus on these programs have them deliver and keep advancing. With a budget increase too, focus should be on IDDM. As mentioned, a second limited Rafale induction can be resorted to, to hold the line, while the Tejas Mk1A, Mk2, Su-30 upgrade come online. But a MRFA in lieue of the Tejas and AMCA programs is insanity.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Karan M »

Yes, this is the artillery thread, so when I get time, will do something like this for IA too. Or you chaps can take a stab.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

Bringing focus to arty procurement programs.

Let's list the known procurement programs.

1) 1580, 52 calibre towed howitzers.
2) 155, 39 calibre ULH towed howitzers. final numbers unknown.
3) 814, MGS, in 52 calibre.
4) unknown numbers of 39 calibre MGS for mountain roles.
5) Dhanush 45 , in 450 numbers.
6) 100+(100?) K9, in addition to the ones already in service.
7 Sharang, 300 guns as of 2020.


If these programs are completed by 2040 we are going to be in a good place. As far as arty is concerned.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by ramana »

ks_sachin wrote:A very depressing thread!!!
http://swarajyamag.com/amp/story/news-b ... akes-shape

Of India has no rocket forces why build these tunnels?
Things are not bad as folls want to paint.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by ks_sachin »

Pratyush wrote:Bringing focus to arty procurement programs.

Let's list the known procurement programs.

1) 1580, 52 calibre towed howitzers.
2) 155, 39 calibre ULH towed howitzers. final numbers unknown.
3) 814, MGS, in 52 calibre.
4) unknown numbers of 39 calibre MGS for mountain roles.
5) Dhanush 45 , in 450 numbers.
6) 100+(100?) K9, in addition to the ones already in service.
7 Sharang, 300 guns as of 2020.


If these programs are completed by 2040 we are going to be in a good place. As far as arty is concerned.
All that is good. But if we keep chasing imported mall we will get f….d one way or the other. And we can forget being a serious power on the world stage.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

ramana wrote:
ks_sachin wrote:A very depressing thread!!!
http://swarajyamag.com/amp/story/news-b ... akes-shape

Of India has no rocket forces why build these tunnels?
Things are not bad as folls want to paint.
So during peace these tunnels will Store missils?

The PRC shoots a cruise missile in the tunnel at the beginning of hostility and our missiles are toast.

Such articles are designed to raise moral but the tunnels during the beginning of hostilities are just another target for the enemy.

A cruise missile will cost under 2 million dollars. Over the next 2 decades PRC can easily procure 2000 cruise missiles per year. Our few hundred tunnels become unusable in the first few days of the fight.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by NRao »

Pratyush wrote:
ramana wrote:
http://swarajyamag.com/amp/story/news-b ... akes-shape

Of India has no rocket forces why build these tunnels?
Things are not bad as folls want to paint.
So during peace these tunnels will Store missils?

The PRC shoots a cruise missile in the tunnel at the beginning of hostility and our missiles are toast.

Such articles are designed to raise moral but the tunnels during the beginning of hostilities are just another target for the enemy.

A cruise missile will cost under 2 million dollars. Over the next 2 decades PRC can easily procure 2000 cruise missiles per year. Our few hundred tunnels become unusable in the first few days of the fight.
PLA also has "tunnels". Recall that the Brahmos were re-designed to hit the reverse side of a hill/mountain, just for that purpose: hit the entrance to the tunnel, which the PLA thought by placing on the reverse side was difficult for India to hit.

Chinese subs also use tunnels for safe harbor (pens) under a solid mountain.

Also, they (IA) do not place an ad in the Chinese newspaper telling everyone where an entrance is.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

My point is that, on general principle every tunnel and bridge on every highway on the border regions will be a target for the Chinese.

Because of logistics and the ability it provides the Indian army to sustain itself on the battlefield.

Not that the PRC will know which one specific tunnel is hiding missiles to strike.

Guided Pinaka, Pralay, Prahar, Shaurya and Brahmos, are a step in the right direction. Our total combined holdings has to be in excess of 20000. In order to strike brigade HQ, Divisional HQ, POL depo, Ammo dump, C2 nodes. Bridges over major river systems, etc.

Our surveillance capacity has to be sufficiently survivable to operate 24 hrs a day, 100s of KM inside Tibet. In order to make use of such capacity.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by ramana »

I hope you wear trousers.
Don't wear dhoti ever.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Rakesh »

ramana wrote:I hope you wear trousers.
Don't wear dhoti ever.
:rotfl:
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

ramana wrote:I hope you wear trousers.
Don't wear dhoti ever.
I am young enough to easily live for the next 60 years. I hope so do you. So that in the late 40s. Once the PRC has reached its final form. We can sing all is well.

Because this is RFI is a text book example of the services playing games.

The IAF chief played games with the Tejas Mk2. The ADA and HAL are saying that we need 210 orders for the project to be viable.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

Rakesh wrote:
ramana wrote:I hope you wear trousers.
Don't wear dhoti ever.
:rotfl:
:rotfl:
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by YashG »

PLA knows Modi is distracted by elections. I fully expect them to escalate and make some gains during the election phase.

During that phase, all politicians will be busy in rallies, very little news cycle on any Chinese aggression. Perfect time for Chinese to escalate, grab our territory.

Side note: In next 3-4 years Chinese military strength against India will peak. Expect Chinese to take advantage of the window. Since their economy is sliding - in 3-4 years, expect them to not being able to invest in defence as aggressively + Many unfinished projects in India will also start bearing fruit.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by rohitvats »

- Well, fact of the matter is, no one knows what's happening on the artillery front.
- If you really think it is IA which is bypassing ATAGS (assuming this be the case) against the wishes of MOD and GOI, well, please lend me the Afghanistan's finest that you're smoking.
- There are zero imports w/o the GOI agreeing to them for genuine reasons.
- Just check the inductions over last 7-8 years and tell me which imports have happened at the expense of domestic programs.
- By all means (R-Day presence, firing 21 gun salute at I-Day celebration), ATAGS is central to Mod's self-reliance drive in defense. Its not going silently into the sunset if that is what you believe.
----
There are few things to keep in mind.
- First, we don't really know the status of ATAGS except for reports here and there which say all is well.
- To this add that the situation with respect to availability of guns is vastly different from the time when FARP was conceived.
- Towed guns:
(1) OFB - Dhanush 45, Dhanush 52
(2) Kalyani - Bharat 52, Bharat 45, Mountain Artillery Gun - Extended Range (MAG-ER) (155/52mm and ~8 tons!)
(3) DRDO - ATAGS
- Towed Light Guns:
(1) Kalyani - ULW with conventional recoil (4.8 tons) and Hybrid recoil (4.5 tons); and then there is steel vs Titanium difference.
- Mounted Gun System
(1) DRDO - MGS (155/52)
(2) Kalyani - MGS-ER (155/52mm) (MGS version - this gun was especially developed on request of General Bipin Rawat)
(3) OFB - Dhanush MGS
-----
- Fact of the matter is simple - the IA does not need to rely ONLY on ATAGS to meet all needs under each master umbrella. There are options outside of DRDO with Indian companies.
- If I've to guess, then we'll be seeing induction of following systems:
(1) Kalyani Bharat 52 (<15 tons)
(2) Kalyani MAG-ER (~8 tons)
(3) Kalyani MAG-ER (MGS Version)
(4) ATAGS - Towed
(5) ATAGS - MGS
(6) ULW Guns of various flavors
(7) Mounted 105mm guns with hybrid recoil plus existing 105mm Field Guns modified for mounted role.
-----
Only caveat in this assumption is political leadership trying to favor Adani through ATHOS route.
But whatever happens in the end, it will be as per wishes of political leadership.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by niran »

Pratyush wrote:Map of Burma and North eastern India with a focus on the perennial river systems.

https://www.google.com/search?q=irrawad ... pDkrFCRocM


National highway system of Burma. Superimposed on the periannial river systems.

https://www.google.com/search?q=myanmar ... E77EhGs6jM

Ask yourself what is the end game of PRC in North eastern India. That they will have to cross into Burma in order to successfully achieve the desired outcome.

If it's Arunachal Pradesh, they can't do it from Burma. As long as the IAF exists. If IAF is gone. No amount of 155 is going to help. In the face of PLAF air superiority.
look at terrain, Myanmar is basically river plains with soft soil, then Himalayan rise 20km (on average) from Indo Myanmar border this terrain is mountainous thick forest and something flowing every 1.8 to 2 kms, forcing any mass movement to stick to prebuilt road bridge system, WW2 Japs+INA came upto Kohima Japs built a good road network the network has been upgraded over the years, there is a Cheen built and operated High speed Rail (HSR) parallel to Indo Myanmar border 30km (once again on average from border) there are 12 airstrips 80km to 128km from Indo Myanmar border operated by PLA point is
1. all ingress (into Bharat) route identified (down to sinle person footbridge and watched over 24/7
2. every route upto that HSR line is in 155mm arty range
3. all airstrips are under rocket and missile range
so in the event of PLA even farting in Myanmar 155s plus Rockets and Missiles will shut off all ingress route blow up supply routes and cache a wise commander can even trap few division of PLA to die of hunger malaria dengue snake bite scorpion stings etc etc.
rest please join the dots yourself
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Prasad »

The former DRDO chief himself said ATAGS is ready. Certainly don't need anyone else's certificate about its status. So do BF & TATA. That is ALL the folks involved in the program. So let's not beat around the bush shall we? The gun has been ready for 2 years now.

And as Karan has been ranting, our R&D % spending has been static over the past 8 years. No matter what electoral compulsions arise off and on, 8 years of no change like a dead man's ecg is crystal clear evidence of zero forethought or giving importance to up our future force posturing. Nor is any movement on key programs like engines - not just jet but turboprop too, or aircraft or composites or alloys. Talk to professors in this field in IITs and IISc about how they're hemorrhaging top class engineers and scientists because there aren't any programs that can keep them in the country. They're going to Japan and SoKo instead. All that training and time and money down the drain. Why?

Tejas Mk2 FSED sanction was 14,000 cr. AMCA is expected to be higher but still under 20,000 cr. TEDBF folks are waiting for money and no light at the end of the tunnel when it is THE most time & resource-constrained program. And this is from the horse's mouth btw, not some random pulled-out-of-musharaf detail. So let's not kid ourselves.

As for artillery, the two programs approved and bought have been the imported K-9 and the Dhanush. Sarang upgrade is separate and isn't considered a brand new program anyway. Take the K-9 - what exactly is L&T (& thereby India) getting out of the program? There is zero high-tech value add or absorption. Most weapon-related tech is black-boxed.

And that is why CVRDE had L&T as the DCPP for the Light Tank program that the Army just killed. After they've spent couple of years and parcelled out portions for design and prototype manufacturing. Talk to the CVRDE folks first before spouting gyan about army being gung-ho on indigenisation. You wouldn't find a more crestfallen bunch than them. Esp after the ridiculous 114 Arjun repeat order that does nobody any good.

GoK what will happen to the AMAGS program also. Repeated trials after trials in all conditions is a given but orders? The truck mounted LUH has been under trials for more than couple of years now. No news.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

Niran,

I have been looking at Burma along the different east to west and north to west transit corridors for several years.

This is harder for the PRC to manage then an assault from Tibet. Which is exactly why I had linked to Burma maps.

Not matter how much the road network has been built up. If the IAF is alive and breathing . An offensive from PRC through Burma is non starter.

I regard the PLA and PLAF to be reasonably competent to understand this basic fact.

If the IAF is dead, it will not really matter, of the PLA comes from north or even east. The Arty and missile holdings will not really make much difference to the outcome of the fight.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by niran »

Pratyush wrote:Niran,

I have been looking at Burma along the different east to west and north to west transit corridors for several years.

This is harder for the PRC to manage then an assault from Tibet. Which is exactly why I had linked to Burma maps.

Not matter how much the road network has been built up. If the IAF is alive and breathing . An offensive from PRC through Burma is non starter.

I regard the PLA and PLAF to be reasonably competent to understand this basic fact.

If the IAF is dead, it will not really matter, of the PLA comes from north or even east. The Arty and missile holdings will not really make much difference to the outcome of the fight.
Tibet route has very narrow operational window plus PLA is on open flat terrain(remember not a blade of grass grows there) opem flat terrain deployment need least amount of guided ammunition traditional method will be more than enough Maynmar route relying on IAF is fatal as fatal as 1 paxi=10 bhindians arty to shut off ingress route IAF to protect the skies and visit places out of range(there are 2 PLA operatiomal radar station)
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by ks_sachin »

Niran I have been up to the plateau in Tibet. There is no way the Chinese can surprise us there. We already had armr there in the late 1990s. How effective it was is a question to be asked. But dad commanded the brigade there and also his paltan was deployed in the Demchok area before Bde Command. Again there a lot of work done even before the issues over the last few years in terms of defences.

The IA know the lay of the land very well and has over the years built up defences so that the Chinese cannot willy-nilly do things. Once you own the choke points in the mountains, then you have the upper hand. And also remember all of this is based on what the POLITICAL leadership allows before someone starts talking about things that have happened and why we are reactive..

As much as we like to do armchair giri the IA is not all filled with fools!
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by niran »

ks_sachin wrote:Niran I have been up to the plateau in Tibet. There is no way the Chinese can surprise us there. We already had armr there in the late 1990s. How effective it was is a question to be asked. But dad commanded the brigade there and also his paltan was deployed in the Demchok area before Bde Command. Again there a lot of work done even before the issues over the last few years in terms of defences.

The IA know the lay of the land very well and has over the years built up defences so that the Chinese cannot willy-nilly do things. Once you own the choke points in the mountains, then you have the upper hand. And also remember all of this is based on what the POLITICAL leadership allows before someone starts talking about things that have happened and why we are reactive..

As much as we like to do armchair giri the IA is not all filled with fools!
:D :D :D Niran says tomatoes are round reddish KS Sachin says Tomatoes are reddish and round
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by ks_sachin »

I meant to agree with your assertions.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

If Tibet is difficult terrain for the PRC to conduct offensive operations from. Burma is harder than Tibet.

As stated by Niran himself in the following passage.
look at terrain, Myanmar is basically river plains with soft soil, then Himalayan rise 20km (on average) from Indo Myanmar border this terrain is mountainous thick forest and something flowing every 1.8 to 2 kms, forcing any mass movement to stick to prebuilt road bridge system, WW2 Japs+INA came upto Kohima Japs built a good road network the network has been upgraded over the years, there is a Cheen built and operated High speed Rail (HSR) parallel to Indo Myanmar border 30km (once again on average from border) there are 12 airstrips 80km to 128km from Indo Myanmar border operated by PLA point is
1. all ingress (into Bharat) route identified (down to sinle person footbridge and watched over 24/7
2. every route upto that HSR line is in 155mm arty range
3. all airstrips are under rocket and missile range
so in the event of PLA even farting in Myanmar 155s plus Rockets and Missiles will shut off all ingress route blow up supply routes and cache a wise commander can even trap few division of PLA to die of hunger malaria dengue snake bite scorpion stings etc etc.
rest please join the dots yourself
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by BenG »

https://goachronicle.com/china-rattled- ... ys-border/
India is registering its presence on the border with a lot of might. Apart from religious tourism, the Indian government reopened the 150-year-old Gartang Gali Bridge in 2021. Thirdly, the air force is being given land in Chamoli, Pithoragarh, and Uttar Kashi to install defense radars, and advanced landing grounds are being developed, and the K-9 Vajra Howitzer is being deployed.
Looking at the army RFI for towing Vehicles and the tamaha around the 15 ton limit. It makes sense to just buy the K-9 Vajra upgraded models which can fire rocket assisted projectiles for greater range. The platform seems to have almost no negative publicity. There is no towing vehicle needed. It makes sense to meet the ATAGS requirement through K-9. ATAGS or ATHOS cannot be airlifted by Chinook. So the mobility aspect is the same. Am I missing any operational requirements?
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by mody »

BenG wrote:
Looking at the army RFI for towing Vehicles and the tamaha around the 15 ton limit. It makes sense to just buy the K-9 Vajra upgraded models which can fire rocket assisted projectiles for greater range. The platform seems to have almost no negative publicity. There is no towing vehicle needed. It makes sense to meet the ATAGS requirement through K-9. ATAGS or ATHOS cannot be airlifted by Chinook. So the mobility aspect is the same. Am I missing any operational requirements?
Tracked SPGs are expensive. Their primary role is as a support element for an armoured thrust. Using truck mounted MGS would be a much better and cheaper option.
IA has projected a requirement for more than 850 MGS. I think a mix of Kalyani light 4x4 truck mounted guns and heavy 8x8 truck mounted ATAGS will fill the role. I don't think the OFB Dhanush MGS on a Tatra truck will get inducted.

Surprising that Tata did not come with a MGS. They had previously developed a truck mounted gun, using a Denel 155mm 52 caliber gun on their own truck platform. They had claimed that a lot of the electronics etc, had been developed by them. Now that they have developed the ATAGS gun, they could have very well mounted the same on their own platform and offered a MGS solution with everything available in house.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by BenG »

mody wrote:
BenG wrote:
Looking at the army RFI for towing Vehicles and the tamaha around the 15 ton limit.... Am I missing any operational requirements?
Tracked SPGs are expensive. Their primary role is as a support element for an armoured thrust. Using truck mounted MGS would be a much better and cheaper option.
IA has projected a requirement for more than 850 MGS. I think a mix of Kalyani light 4x4 truck mounted guns and heavy 8x8 truck mounted ATAGS will fill the role. I don't think the OFB Dhanush MGS on a Tatra truck will get inducted.
Thanks. I did not consider the cost angle of tracked vehicles.
Given that we have a running production line. It makes sense to order K-9 and keep production running with a backlog of atleast 100 nos while we figure out the chicken or egg problem with ATAGS. Delaying ATAGS, Bharat 52 or ATHOS will lead to too high procurement costs when eventually we buy 52, 45 and 39 caliber designs in one go. There is also the issue of absorption in regiments. It makes sense to convert some of our wheeled requirements to tracked artillery despite the obvious speed limitation. Its a bargain of speed for cross country mobility.

Instead of making RFI for towing Vehicle for ATAGS, why can't the army just wait for a truck mounted variant and buy more 39 caliber ULH by Kalyani/Mahindra and K-9 in the interim?
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Gyan »

Is it possible that Army RFI is an attempt to give orders to Bharat 52 instead to of ATHOS? 1% chance?
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by BenG »

Gyan wrote:Is it possible that Army RFI is an attempt to give orders to Bharat 52 instead to of ATHOS? 1% chance?
Yes, Nice Gyan. I wish to see towed Bharat 52 orders if they come under 15 tons. But at this time they are still under development it seems. So a bridging order of Kalyani 39 caliber ULH will help in the mean time. The same has been ordered by Armenia. So it makes sense to capitalize on it.
https://twitter.com/vinoddx9/status/134 ... 56?lang=en
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

No.

The competition finalists will be Dhanush 52 and Athos. If we go purely by the requirements published in the RFI.

The beauty of the RFI is that the price negotiation committee will decide who is going to be L1 for the procurement.

It will not be an automatic decision purely on the basis of the financial submission from the vendor.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by BenG »

Dhanush 45 is not in serial production. The first regiment is still not fully equipped with the gun. Why would Army trust new Dhanush 52 to be on-time and be devoid of production faults? If necessary, they should just scrap the 45 caliber requirement altogether. IA should standardize around 39 and 52 caliber.

The 52 caliber requirement is necessary but not as urgent anymore since we have howitzers in production. It still makes sense to buy 39 caliber ULH and K-9 while ATAGS does its weight reduction and Dhanush/Bharat 52 development goes through its cycles to be production ready. We have an opportunity to have a clean competition among domestic players.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by saumitra_j »

BenG wrote:Dhanush 45 is not in serial production. The first regiment is still not fully equipped with the gun. Why would Army trust new Dhanush 52 to be on-time and be devoid of production faults? If necessary, they should just scrap the 45 caliber requirement altogether. IA should standardize around 39 and 52 caliber.
That is not correct based on the Chindu article I had quoted a few pages back. To quote from it:
One regiment of the indigenous Dhanush artillery systems, developed based on the Swedish Bofors guns, has been inducted and operationalised in high altitude area along the Northern Borders after extensive validation. By March 2023, the Army should receive 18 guns to form the second Dhanush regiment, the source said.
Please see this link
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by KSingh »

Pratyush wrote:Bringing focus to arty procurement programs.

Let's list the known procurement programs.

1) 1580, 52 calibre towed howitzers.
2) 155, 39 calibre ULH towed howitzers. final numbers unknown.
3) 814, MGS, in 52 calibre.
4) unknown numbers of 39 calibre MGS for mountain roles.
5) Dhanush 45 , in 450 numbers.
6) 100+(100?) K9, in addition to the ones already in service.
7 Sharang, 300 guns as of 2020.


If these programs are completed by 2040 we are going to be in a good place. As far as arty is concerned.
This list could’ve been written in 2006 and it would not look much different. Only 145 M777, 100 K9 and ~30 Dhanush-45 have been inducted from the list and all post 2014 so the arty corps of the IA is barely that different in 2022 than they were during Kargil as far as ORBAT goes.

1) RFI for a non-ATAGS 155/52 towed gun is only just issued, best case RFP within 3 years, contract 3 years after that and delivery 3 years after that so all 1500+ by mid/late 2030s
2) 145 M777 ULH inducted. No certainty on additional orders
3) after ~2018 the MGS talk died down, now AON for the DRDO MGS has been issued but with not firm order commitment. The ATAGS based MGS is still yet to conduct user trails so is at least another 3-4 years away from being in a position to be ordered and then we will likely see a repeat of the towed gun circus
4) same as the 155/52 MGS saga except I don’t believe even an AON exists for this
5) only 114 ordered to date and induction rates are hilariously slow. No sign of the follow on 300 orders
6) The second K9 order looks certain within the next 2 years as per L&T so 200 will be in service ~2027

We also know Kalyani has a lot of additional arty solutions like 105 and 155/39 MGS but not even an AON for these systems has been issued (despite them being the brainchild of former CDS Rawat)

Sure this is a depressing thread but no more than any of the others on BRF- limited CAPEX, import addicted users and the most convoluted procurement routes you’ll find in the world are a potent mix.
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