Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

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niran
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by niran »

VickyAvinash wrote:
niran wrote: Titanium version at 5.3 ton, Titanium version has truck mounted version and 800 ordered by IA divided into 200 towed (80 or so deployed with Eastern theater command) 600 truck mounted meant for Western and northern theater command. Kalyani named this line as MAG line,
Niran ji, no source needed, but if this is true then it's the best news in last 10 years. Did not know that Indian Army already ordered 800 ultra light guns of Kalyani. Aap ke muh mein dibba bar ke ghee shakkar.
IA war gamed PLA route of Invasion and to their shock surprise they found out Invasion through Myanmar was open all year round PLA already had developed air ports rail lines rail head radar sites storage facilities deployment zones down to forward deployment zones, fortunately for Bharat NaMo at helm so instead of "hum sab jante hain humko kamjor na samjhe" M777 was deployed another shock surprise insufficient numbers so 200 ULH were ordered and almost all of current IA rocket forces deployed in East
Pratyush
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

Search results for
how many ATAGS guns have been ordered
https://www.google.com/search?q=how+man ... e&ie=UTF-8

Not one shows that firm orders have been placed.

So how old are you exactly?
saumitra_j
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by saumitra_j »

Pratyush sir, I have already posted an article that says about 150 guns will be ordered as per public information. Can we please leave it at that? Thanks!
Pratyush
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

niran wrote: IA war gamed PLA route of Invasion and to their shock surprise they found out Invasion through Myanmar was open all year round PLA already had developed air ports rail lines rail head radar sites storage facilities deployment zones down to forward deployment zones, fortunately for Bharat NaMo at helm so instead of "hum sab jante hain humko kamjor na samjhe" M777 was deployed another shock surprise insufficient numbers so 200 ULH were ordered and almost all of current IA rocket forces deployed in East

Searching
how many bharat forge guns ordered by the indian army
Results in the following links.

https://www.google.com/search?q=how+man ... -serp#ip=1

Not one says that guns have been ordered.

Please don't pull things out of your Musharraf.
Last edited by Pratyush on 22 Dec 2022 19:22, edited 1 time in total.
Gyan
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Gyan »

Niran seems to be saying (?) that Kalyani 155/39 towed titanium howitzers 200 ordered, 80 already produced and deployed. Unlikely it seems that Rs 5000 cr order will slip under the radar
Pratyush
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

saumitra_j wrote:Pratyush sir, I have already posted an article that says about 150 guns will be ordered as per public information. Can we please leave it at that? Thanks!
Try and understand that, the guns will be ordered. Not that they have been ordered.

Which is what the other poster has claimed.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

Gyan wrote:Niran seems to be saying (?) that Kalyani 155/39 towed titanium howitzers 200 ordered, 80 already produced and deployed. Unlikely it seems that Rs 5000 cr order will slip under the radar
Exactly.
sanjayc
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by sanjayc »

niran wrote:
VickyAvinash wrote:
Niran ji, no source needed, but if this is true then it's the best news in last 10 years. Did not know that Indian Army already ordered 800 ultra light guns of Kalyani. Aap ke muh mein dibba bar ke ghee shakkar.
IA war gamed PLA route of Invasion and to their shock surprise they found out Invasion through Myanmar was open all year round PLA already had developed air ports rail lines rail head radar sites storage facilities deployment zones down to forward deployment zones, fortunately for Bharat NaMo at helm so instead of "hum sab jante hain humko kamjor na samjhe" M777 was deployed another shock surprise insufficient numbers so 200 ULH were ordered and almost all of current IA rocket forces deployed in East
China has been working on invasion through Burma for the last more than a decade. I remember reading somewhere that China had signed an agreement with Burma to give the right of passage to its army. That time, seeing the map, I also remember thinking that India invading through Burma will be an easy way to hit the Han mainland. That is what will hit China hard -- they don't give a rat's ass if we set fire to whole of Tibet
Pratyush
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

ramana wrote:Pratyush, You did well thinking about the gun carriage aspects.
Now think about the charges required for the ATAGS and the other guns.


Snip....

And govt are not interested in imports.

Snip...

.
Thanks for your appreciation.

I have thought about the charges for the gun.

https://www.msm.sk/content/msm-tech-lis ... mcs-en.pdf is most useful search result.

It says that a zone 6 is the highest charge for a range of 43 kms for a 23 liter chamber.

The 25 liter chamber will use a zone 7.

A single charge is maximum 2800 grams in weight with 2300 grams of Black Powder.

Zone 7 charge will be a maximum of 2800 grams *7 charges. With a Wight of 19600 grams or 19.6 kilos.

Logistics wise, not all shots are of going to be zone 7. But the FAT will be carrying enough for all shots to be possible zone 7.

We know from the following news link that the gun towing vehicle being sought by the army have sufficient capacity to handle sufficient weight for the mission fulfilment.
https://theprint.in/defence/army-plans- ... in/683329/

The requirements sought by the Army for the vehicles include a capability to operate across terrains with a payload of 8,000 kg or more with a gun in tow weighing upto 20 tonnes.
It allows the GTV to easily carry 100 rounds at 50 kg * 100 rounds = 5000 kg.

19.6 kg for zone 7 charge * 100= 1.96 tons. we are still going to have payload capacity left.

The point is that either sufficient capacity exists to gainfully deploy the ATAGS today. Or it can be created by the time the gun is fully qualified.

WRT, the government and purse strings.

I know that. I also know that this RFI is going to delay the release of RFP for Athos. Which is going to push the potential procurement of the guns to beyond 2024 general elections.

Losing over 2 years in this wild ghose chase.
Last edited by Pratyush on 22 Dec 2022 21:07, edited 2 times in total.
hnair
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by hnair »

niran-saar, thanks for the insight on the PLA’s Myanmar route and the need for a welcome party of 155mm barrels :shock:
Pratyush
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

Map of Burma and North eastern India with a focus on the perennial river systems.

https://www.google.com/search?q=irrawad ... pDkrFCRocM


National highway system of Burma. Superimposed on the periannial river systems.

https://www.google.com/search?q=myanmar ... E77EhGs6jM

Ask yourself what is the end game of PRC in North eastern India. That they will have to cross into Burma in order to successfully achieve the desired outcome.

If it's Arunachal Pradesh, they can't do it from Burma. As long as the IAF exists. If IAF is gone. No amount of 155 is going to help. In the face of PLAF air superiority.
RoyG
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by RoyG »

niran wrote:
RoyG wrote:
This is mental gymnastics.

What was the point of atags?

This is just a continuation of pathetic procurement practices and corruption. Everything from small arms to artillery and submarines is a mess.
range is the point of 25liter chamber ATAGS FYI, ATAGS is still world record holder with 48.7 km range firing Base Bleed shell for pratical purpose it takes 1 hour expressway drive to cover 40 km, 24 hours under favorable conditions for mechanized infantry to cover 50km 1minute 38 seconds @800 meter per second for ATAGS shell to travel 49 km, hope it clear you thoughts
You didn't get the point of the q but that's ok.

The corrupt procurement guys never got sacked by the messianic PM. To make matters worse they put someone with no experience in defence in charge of the defence ministry. He's good at saying all the right things but can't deliver the goods.

Small arms, tanks, artillery, submarines, etc. It's all the same. Any big ticket item and you will be speaking in the next decade about it with no end in sight. But this is the whole point because by then the item is outdated and there is a lack of domestic capability to produce or upgrade so emergency procurement. The whole circus show keeps going and a few people get rich.

People forget this artillery fiasco has been going on for not years but decades. The successive army leadership as well as the PMO have let down the nation in this regard. There is no excuse for this BS.

Some BRFites including oldies make excuses for this. I think 99% of people on this forum see through it now.
Karan M
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Karan M »

niran wrote:
Pratyush wrote:Niran,

Have the RFP for the ATAGS been published?

If not, then why has this RFI been published with a preference for guns under 15 tons?

Do you know that the ATAGS is 18 tons?

If the objective is to give ATAGS a fair chance. Then why not issue an RFI with a weight criteria of 18 tons?

Is the Indian army going to acquire 3610 towed howitzers?

i.e

1) 1580 23 liter chamber.
2) 1580 25 liter chamber.
3) 450 Dhanush 45.
seriously mods i request head banging smilies, latest RFI is not for ATAGS it is for different gun, ATAGS has been ordered per current and 5 years in future requirement. done and dusted
just as you have different flavors of Maggie noodles for different taste you have to have different guns for different purpose
There are no such orders in the public domain.
Only a single order for around 140 units has been *indented*. Not a formal order placed.

So far multiple domestic systems have cleared trials and no orders have been placed. Or the orders placed have been for such limited amounts, funds wise that they are pyrrhic.

I'd suggest you look into the capex for all three services as well. Unless that is hiked by a huge amount what you are suggesting around huge orders is unrealistic.

We've to stop making these unrealistic claims when the facts on the ground are different. AONs are dime a dozen. Inductions, very limited. There has been no movement either from the GOI to hike the defence budget with a focus on domestic inductions alone either.

DRDO's budget is flat vis a vis what's expected of it. The IISc lab wasn't funded either nor a domestic foundry for thermal sensors. A jet engine program hasn't been funded either. It's been a decade now.

Items pending already for formal orders, post successful trials and development already include:

Akash Prime, MRSAM Army, Pinaka Guided, ATAGS, Arudhra and Ashwini, Himshakti, Nag, HELINA, IAF CIWS.

All three AF are struggling for Capex and what they've had, they've spent on emergency acquisitions in bits and pieces. The domestic orders placed are also a joke TBH.

We ordered 36 Rafale and 83 odd Tejas. The Pakistanis, who are virtually at the verge of default, went for similar it even more J-10s and equal number of JF's. Chinese acquisition should make us ashamed of what we've been touting and bragging about.

This is but the public domain list. The MOD has even stopped releasing an Annual Report. Even CAG reports are now not public until & unless leaks are made on select issues alone.

Public data does not paint a flattering picture even when the dragon is literally at the door.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by KSingh »

niran wrote:.

point is, ATAGS ordered (no ifs and but) Desi already have a gun fulfilling RFI, RFI clearly state Desi maal no import shimport, so gentle folks chill have whatever you all have and relax
This flat out is untrue

The RFI explicitly makes a distinction for IDDM and licence assembly offers. For foreign OEM sourced designs the indigenous content has to be 60%. Why make this stipulation if this was for desi maal only?


This will almost certainly go to the ATHOS (L&T-Nexter are second favourites) as they’ve been lobbying hard then it’ll be assembled in india and labelled ‘make in india’ just like the ‘kalyani’ M4

Whoever wins this contest will be the clear favourite for the MGS whenever that goes somewhere


With this move the IA has killed ATAGS’s hopes of mass induction plain and simple and its pure gaslighting from anyone to claim otherwise. One doesn’t need to be an insider of PMO to see the writing on the wall.
KSingh
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by KSingh »

niran wrote:
Pratyush wrote:Niran,

Have the RFP for the ATAGS been published?

If not, then why has this RFI been published with a preference for guns under 15 tons?

Do you know that the ATAGS is 18 tons?

If the objective is to give ATAGS a fair chance. Then why not issue an RFI with a weight criteria of 18 tons?

Is the Indian army going to acquire 3610 towed howitzers?

i.e

1) 1580 23 liter chamber.
2) 1580 25 liter chamber.
3) 450 Dhanush 45.
seriously mods i request head banging smilies, latest RFI is not for ATAGS it is for different gun, ATAGS has been ordered per current and 5 years in future requirement. done and dusted
just as you have different flavors of Maggie noodles for different taste you have to have different guns for different purpose
Please provide a link to the contract signature ceremony and payments being made.

I keep seeing this unfounded claim being made. They haven’t even declared which ATAGS is the preferred choice (TASL or Kaylani). Not 1 ATAGS has been ordered.
KSingh
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by KSingh »

Pratyush wrote:
ramana wrote:Pratyush, You did well thinking about the gun carriage aspects.
Now think about the charges required for the ATAGS and the other guns.


Snip....

And govt are not interested in imports.

Snip...

.
Thanks for your appreciation.

I have thought about the charges for the gun.

https://www.msm.sk/content/msm-tech-lis ... mcs-en.pdf is most useful search result.

It says that a zone 6 is the highest charge for a range of 43 kms for a 23 liter chamber.

The 25 liter chamber will use a zone 7.

A single charge is maximum 2800 grams in weight with 2300 grams of Black Powder.

Zone 7 charge will be a maximum of 2800 grams *7 charges. With a Wight of 19600 grams or 19.6 kilos.

Logistics wise, not all shots are of going to be zone 7. But the FAT will be carrying enough for all shots to be possible zone 7.

We know from the following news link that the gun towing vehicle being sought by the army have sufficient capacity to handle sufficient weight for the mission fulfilment.
https://theprint.in/defence/army-plans- ... in/683329/

The requirements sought by the Army for the vehicles include a capability to operate across terrains with a payload of 8,000 kg or more with a gun in tow weighing upto 20 tonnes.
It allows the GTV to easily carry 100 rounds at 50 kg * 100 rounds = 5000 kg.

19.6 kg for zone 7 charge * 100= 1.96 tons. we are still going to have payload capacity left.

The point is that either sufficient capacity exists to gainfully deploy the ATAGS today. Or it can be created by the time the gun is fully qualified.

WRT, the government and purse strings.

I know that. I also know that this RFI is going to delay the release of RFP for Athos. Which is going to push the potential procurement of the guns to beyond 2024 general elections.

Losing over 2 years in this wild ghose chase.
Take ATAGS out of the equation (as IA wants) an RFI for these guns in late 2022 means that the first 155/52 gun via this route will not be in service until at least 2030 given the RFI+2 year—>RFP+2-3 year—->order+2/3 year delivery timeline as is standard (in the best case without random delays that Indian procurement is prone to)


Effectively back to square 1. 2020s will see exactly zero towed 155/52 guns inducted just like the last 75 years of India’s existence

I’d love to be proven wrong but the optimists here are peddling ambitions as firm orders. Take away the M777, K9 (both ordered in minuscule numbers) and a handful of Dhanus-45, Indian tube arty is in no better place today than in 2014,2009 or 1999 and then worst part is there are no meaningful corrective measures aside from an RFI issued in late 2022 (how many RFIs issued by the IA isn’t the last 7 years have delivered anything to date?)
ramana
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by ramana »

Pratyush I am going to ban you for being obstinate.
I don't know what's driving your innate urge.
You have been told with as much authority as can be told.
Yet you are not only disputing but making silly remarks.
K. Singh you too will join if you continue.
Not everything is corruption, etc etc.

You all can bad mouth me on Twitter or other locations.
Am used to that.
ramana
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by ramana »

Gyan wrote:Niran seems to be saying (?) that Kalyani 155/39 towed titanium howitzers 200 ordered, 80 already produced and deployed. Unlikely it seems that Rs 5000 cr order will slip under the radar
No he didn't say that.
He said the M-777 was deployed to this new route.
And found a shortage.
BAE says need to restart the production line and will you pay? You see IA wants only imported best maal.
Same story as IAF wanting M2Ks after Kargil when even cursory reading of Flight magazine which is there in every IAF mess, would tell you Dassault was shutting down the line.
Every defense magazine was saying the M777 line is being shut down.


So Kalyani has a similar gun and those are being ordered to make up for the short-sightedness.
ramana
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by ramana »

KaranM, You increase Capex the two services(IA and IAF) will order only imports.
The Navy will not.
This theory was tried out in 2020 when the Chiefs were given emergency procurement leeway.
All they ordered was to import a small number of exotic weapons.
Not one single BPJ was ordered.
So the lesson is only particular locally made weapons will be ordered as extra items.
A generation of procurement officers needs to be retired.
Case in point Gen Joshi as the chief of Infantry tried out the OFB rifle.
He held it such that it will shoot all over the place.

It was embarrassing that the OFB handler had to tell him how to handle the rifle.


Things are noted.
niran
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by niran »

https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1885838
The AoNs accorded will equip the Indian Army with platforms and equipment such as Futuristic Infantry Combat Vehicles, Light Tanks and Mounted Gun System providing a quantum jump to Indian Army’s operational preparedness. Proposals approved also includes procurement of Ballistic Helmets, with enhanced protection level, for our soldiers.  
here Mounted Gun System (MGS) is Kalyani 155/52 ATAGS mounted on 8x8 truck, mind you testing by DRDO began on 1st december 2022 check signed 22 december 2022
NRao
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by NRao »

DRDO tests mounted gun system

Image
India's DRDO showcased the 155 mm/52 calibre mounted gun system at Defence Expo 2022. The gun has a maximum firing range of 45 km. (Janes/Kapil Kajal)

Dec 1, 2022
Indiaʼs Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) has conducted trials of the indigenously developed 155 mm/52 calibre mounted gun system (MGS).

According to the DRDO, the MGS is a truck-mounted artillery gun system, deployable in desert, mountainous, and high-altitude terrains.

The MGS equips a 155 mm/52 calibre Advanced Towed Artillery Gun System (ATAGS) on an eight-wheeled high-mobility vehicle (HMV) developed by Bharat Earth Movers Limited (BEML).

A DRDO official told Janes that the trials of the MGS have been going on for some time now.

“The mobility and performance trials of the MGS are completed. The standalone firing trials of the armoured cabin are also completed. The MGS is ready to undergo the strength of design trials,” the official said.

The official added that the DRDO is manufacturing the MGS as part of the Indian Army's requirement for gun-mounted wheeled platforms.

The DRDO said that the MGS is equipped with “shoot-and-scoot capability”. The system is fitted with an auto gun alignment and positioning system, fire-control system (FCS), and ammunition handling system.

The system can fire up to a maximum distance of 45 km and has a maximum speed of 80 km/h. The elevation angle of the gun ranges from 0° to +72°. The system holds an ammunition-carrying capacity of 24 projectiles with an appropriate quantity of bi-modular charge system (BMCS).

The MGS can onboard seven soldiers. The system's burst rate of fire is three rounds in 30 seconds, with an intense rate of fire of 12 rounds in three minutes.
Last edited by ramana on 23 Dec 2022 04:14, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Added bold ramana
niran
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by niran »

NRao wrote:SNIP
please note in built APU most welcome feature by gun crew usually large mounted gun system without APU are hand cranked loaded very sternous job under fire inbuilt APU means all mechanized system green and super quick shoot & scoot ability
Gyan
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Gyan »

Lessons of Ukraine War:-

We need Guided Pinaka, Prahaar, Pralay (Zero orders till date)

We need to emphasise Mounted Artillery (where ever possible)

Not to forget electric Suicide drones are cheaper than unguided MBRL around. So if we are ordering 5000 MBRL rounds per annum then we need to order 10,000 to 20,000 Suicide drones per annum. Yes, not a typo
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by fanne »

Let me say this - (and hard to accept) - Do we announce everything that gets bought/inducted (domestic or foreign?). How many Nsubs have we announced so far. Arihant was announced few years after induction (the news itself said that it has been inducted few years ago) and then the second sub is forever in induction mode. You get news of its launching, painting, equipping, accidents, rework ad nauseum. So just by news we have only 1 n sub. But if you apply logic, it would be stupid that we master the tech, induct first one a decade ago and never succeed in inducting any. The argument could be that these are strategic systems, so ambiguity is built in, it is not the case of tactical systems (artillery, missiles etc).
We had many prithvi tests, many Trishul tests (after Trishul was officially shelved, this missile was quoted to be a rectangle of 4 meters by 3 meters). Heck we have tested more brahmos (officially) then what the official announced number of holdings are.
Yup, the current government is against import (else it would have bought F-18/Rafale/Eurofighter/MRFA/MQ-9,P8I long time back). Even it is not buying cheaper Russians stuff except where there is compelling reason (s400). It is not importing even in face of imminent danger (my logic would say, they have that threat covered through other means).
So this govt. will not import, even if that means lessening of preparedness (I will cover how that is not true though), all the dallas can cry as much they want. Even the foreign rugs are reporting that how India attitude is hampering its preparedness (and saying in round about way that import please).
Now, can that be that artillery or missiles (that we manufacture indigenously, and at a far lesser cost) are being ordered and not being reported? I have not seen any law so far that says it has to be reported (see example of N subs). The media gets the news only when MOD wants something to be reported. There are very less (perhaps 0) journalist who will go and find out without MOD help. Even many imported systems were not announced, and one came to know about it few years down the line through deliberate news leaks.
The only people who could know otherwise are the chandigarh lobby people (and some people with uncle/nephew handling these). They have eyes fixed on big ticket items (and Athos is one). They can confirm or reject these assertions. Maybe the latest RFI is just to keep them in good humour (does not mean it will go to Athos). So all in all, Thanks Niran!!
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by KSingh »

ramana wrote:Pratyush I am going to ban you for being obstinate.
I don't know what's driving your innate urge.
You have been told with as much authority as can be told.
Yet you are not only disputing but making silly remarks.
K. Singh you too will join if you continue.
Not everything is corruption, etc etc.

You all can bad mouth me on Twitter or other locations.
Am used to that.
With all due respect I have no desire to get into a personal disagreement with you or any other user. I’m here as all of us are to discuss technical/strategic matters.

Corruption or not the current roadmaps are at the very least disappointing to anyone that is interested in the FRP being realised.

Corruption or incompetence is up for debate, one thing we should be able to agree on is there is no scope for any 155/52 towed guns to enter Indian service this side of 2030 in meaningful numbers. That at a time we are seeing the PLA putting their foot around the IA’s neck on the LAC
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Atmavik »

If we have to import artillery it will be an end to our dreams of desi MIC , will also mean that not even a strong PM like Modi can upend the import lobby .
Karan M
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Karan M »

ramana wrote:KaranM, You increase Capex the two services(IA and IAF) will order only imports.
The Navy will not.
This theory was tried out in 2020 when the Chiefs were given emergency procurement leeway.
All they ordered was to import a small number of exotic weapons.
Not one single BPJ was ordered.
So the lesson is only particular locally made weapons will be ordered as extra items.
A generation of procurement officers needs to be retired.
Case in point Gen Joshi as the chief of Infantry tried out the OFB rifle.
He held it such that it will shoot all over the place.

It was embarrassing that the OFB handler had to tell him how to handle the rifle.


Things are noted.
R Sir, they have to be told that the current capex increase will be used for only domestic weapons. We have the following items available. They havent been ordered:

Nag, Helina, Akash Prime & MRSAM, Himshakti for IA
MPR, Ashwini, HPR for IAF along with the 66 flights of CIWS. In fact there isnt enough money to even order munitions.

We are in a really comic situation where local systems are available yet they arent ordered and capex shortage is cited.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Karan M »

fanne wrote:Let me say this - (and hard to accept) - Do we announce everything that gets bought/inducted (domestic or foreign?).
You can simply check the overall budget, see the amount allotted to capex and make reasonable assumptions. The amounts are too limited to radically change things. For instance, I did a quick calculation based on prior big ticket deals (and ignoring the umpteen small emergency deals which add up to a significant amount) and then having new deals come in.

Answer - there is *no* money for any big ticket new inductions of even munitions.

IAF Capex yearly is around $3.9 Bn, if you assume PEL are around a billion $. After all our current plans are taken into account (Tejas Mk1A/2, C-295, SAMs, SU-30 UPG, AWACS, sensors), we are left with a limited amount a year. This isnt enough to add new gen AAMs or munitions or any critical systems. We are having a severe budgetary limitation when it comes to funding the defence forces. The above inductions are barely enough to hold the line. The issue is when the retirals kick in we will be in a big soup again. Airframe costs are the real kicker.

IMHO, if HAL doesnt screw up, the Tejas Mk2 order can even be doubled.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by ramana »

They won't get increased CAPEX.
However, they will get all the weapons needed.

No one with an iota of the brain will give a rupee to CAPEX.
It will be spent chasing imports.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by ramana »

Just yesterday RM gave AON ~Rs. 84,000 crores.
And these will be for a lot of weapons.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Karan M »

ramana wrote:They won't get increased CAPEX.
However, they will get all the weapons needed.

No one with an iota of the brain will give a rupee to CAPEX.
It will be spent chasing imports.
The defence budget is split into two heads.
Revenue - this is for existing stores, infra, spend on personnel.
Capital. This is capex.

If you dont give capex, you cannot buy new weapons or systems. Only existing systems can be replenished via Revenue budget. You can't even get follow on orders for *new systems* via Revenue budget. Only spares and ammo are permitted, as are POL, infra etc for existing systems.

Of the capex budget, aka capital budget, there are two further sub-groups. Pre-committed liabilities and new acquisitions. The former end up soaking most of the budget then again, you have no money for the new purchases. This is exactly what has happened in the recent past.

So, it is not about import or local production, the new purchases come from capex, until & unless we increase capex, and link the increase to local we cannot buy local until and unless the pre-existing purchases are paid off and that could take years.

And if there is a conflict in between, we will be found wanting.

Per my back of the envelope calculations, if the fight is in 2030, given our current spend levels, we have a decent chance.
If its three years out from now, we will have a tough time of it.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Karan M »

ramana wrote:Just yesterday RM gave AON ~Rs. 84,000 crores.
And these will be for a lot of weapons.
The AON is the first step in a very long drawn out process. You have AoN for development, AoN for procurement. Most of these are for the former. Only once that is complete will these programs be taken up for procurement. At least 4-5 years out. All depends on whether the budget can manage it. All the above systems will go into the capital head. Rs 84K crore translates to around $10Bn. The more the budget, the shorter the delivery period & quicker payout. Otherwise, you've to stagger deliveries over years and pay them off. Easily take us till 2028-2030. For instance, current budget level is at $20Bn capital, yearly. As you can see, a $10/5 yr payout is $2Bn yearly and still a hard call for current budget levels.

The gravity of the situation must also be looked at.
Currently, we have the majority of the IA infantry without adequate NV gear, arty holdings are way behind need, as are ammo stockpiles. The IAF is lacking key force multipliers & is short of fighters, SAMs & ammo for a sustained conflict. Majority of its bases are non hardened. IN is behind in subs and its carrier fleet is all but non operational. India also needs a national BMD system. All this cannot be managed in a $20Bn capex budget.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by fanne »

There is no argument against raising capex - economic and strategic outlook permitting. Coming back to artillery - have they been ordered (again IA capex budget)either Niran is wrong or he is right ( that near 100 guns delivered and some x00 ordered). All I am saying is lack of news does not mean that it has not happened. Perhaps an accounting of IA budget can show that and you have to assume that there is no separate money flowing in (or scope of over the budget expenditure at the end of fiscal year).
If I recall right, while most of the budget was unspent in the past, it has been fully utilized (or near to it) and some years have seen over the allocation expenditure).
The low capex for iaf makes sense if higher will only result in foreign mrfa and will not go towards other needs like astra or more lca or even su30mki modernization. I don’t believe here govt is playing villain, it some other org that has only plan A and no plan B
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Karan M »

Niran is speaking of the future, he is saying its on plan. That's fine. No point in nitpicking his sources as he is usually right.

The current *actual orders* are for around 140 guns, which are to be split in 70:30 between the winning and losing bidder.

Second, the actual towed gun numbers may change further, Ukraine has shown towed arty is very vulnerable to drone strikes. You need armored cabin equipped MGS.

Third, we cannot assume orders are being placed secretly for big ticket items, the system does not function that way. Orders placed are reflected at multiple places.

Fourth, when I get some time, I will draw out a simplified scheme which tracks a lot of our procurement. The IAF would actually be ok if not for the fact its fleet is so old. The Jaguars & the MiG-29s especially are a challenge, once they start retiring, we are in trouble. The Tejas Mk2 and Mk1A are hence crucial & hence HAL has to be held completely accountable by PMO etc to deliver on time & with proper product support.

You've to understand this is why the IAF is desperate for a MRFA, they want a hedge. As the Tejas fleet comes in (a new one) and the Su-30 upgrade proceeds, the retirals of the MiG-29 and Jaguar start, IAF fleet availability numbers will drop.

This is why they want a quick decision so they can lock in "ready numbers".
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Karan M »

What people need to understand is the gravity of the situation vs the PRC in particular.
Right now spread across 4 primary & 4-5 secondary AFB, they can muster around 150 aircraft & UAVs across the eastern sector.
Official numbers of SR/IRBMs available range around 1600. These are likely severely underestimated. US cannot provide public accurate estimates as it gives away sources. The actual numbers would be known to them.
Now, they are building up infra to surge more fighters & assets. You can expect up to 250 odd airframes over the coming decade.
They are adding around 200 fighters to their fleet strength yearly.
So what this means is IAF can knock out their entire fleet in theater & the PRC can simply replace it with another flotilla.
Of course its not that simple or linear, but I am simplifying it to make folks understand they will have the capacity to surge multiple fleets even if you somehow manage to disable their entire force in readiness.
Another issue is IAF thinking that the PLARF is to knock out AFB runways etc. With cluster munitions & terminal guidance options, they can target the a/c themselves & the crew. This is even more of a risk given majority of our AFB arent hardened & also, the PLA has access to one of the world's largest realtime sat forces.
In short, we can't just rest on our laurels because even as we pay off the Rafale, S-400 and iteratively order desi gear, the threat perception is spiking like heck from the PRC side.
Add Pak to the mix and it gets worse.
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by KSingh »

ramana wrote:Just yesterday RM gave AON ~Rs. 84,000 crores.
And these will be for a lot of weapons.
It would be great if the defence media were more mature and could think critically enough to track these things rather than getting breathless every time an AON is announced

From the top of my head in the last 7 years AONs have been very forthcoming but few have ever translated into even limited orders (NAMICA, AWACS(I), NUH, NMRH, tranche 3 P8 etc etc)

The ratio of AONs to orders has got to be 10:1

WRT to CAPEX, The GoI has made provisions that a certain % of the CAPEX budgets have to be spent on Indian products only however as always the devil lays in the detail. ‘Indian’ as we have seen relates to OEM and not IP/IDDM hence screwdriver nigiri

I read that IA has just ordered ESTONIAN UGV of all things, there should be a blanket ban on all procurements from non-Indian sources at this point and any imported system needing approval from the HQ only
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by KSingh »

Karan M wrote:Niran is speaking of the future, he is saying its on plan. That's fine. No point in nitpicking his sources as he is usually right.

The current *actual orders* are for around 140 guns, which are to be split in 70:30 between the winning and losing bidder.

Second, the actual towed gun numbers may change further, Ukraine has shown towed arty is very vulnerable to drone strikes. You need armored cabin equipped MGS.

Third, we cannot assume orders are being placed secretly for big ticket items, the system does not function that way. Orders placed are reflected at multiple places.

Fourth, when I get some time, I will draw out a simplified scheme which tracks a lot of our procurement. The IAF would actually be ok if not for the fact its fleet is so old. The Jaguars & the MiG-29s especially are a challenge, once they start retiring, we are in trouble. The Tejas Mk2 and Mk1A are hence crucial & hence HAL has to be held completely accountable by PMO etc to deliver on time & with proper product support.

You've to understand this is why the IAF is desperate for a MRFA, they want a hedge. As the Tejas fleet comes in (a new one) and the Su-30 upgrade proceeds, the retirals of the MiG-29 and Jaguar start, IAF fleet availability numbers will drop.

This is why they want a quick decision so they can lock in "ready numbers".
It’s the same issue already being talked about but manifesting differently- for LCA Mk.2/AMCA/IMRH the demands are high (coke on time and at decent performance) but where the tyre meets the road (funding/sanctions) this falls apart. Only this year was LCA MK.2 even funded, AMCA has been promised CCS sanction for years, no one even talks about IMRH anymore and the proposed next gen engine JV is ever so elusive.

The seeds of failure in the 2030s are being sown right now. I get resources are finite but it’s still depressing to watch this slow motion disaster unfolding

+ for multiple reasons including cost and complexity MRFA is pure fiction, order 2-3 more squadrons of Rafale and close the chapter for good. It’s 2022 and they still haven’t even dropped the RFP
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by fanne »

Here is food for thought. No idea if correct, but if it were it changes many things!!
https://defenceupdate.in/chinese-believ ... -true/amp/
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by ks_sachin »

A very depressing thread!!!
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Re: Artillery Corps: News & Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

Relax, all is well.
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