Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby brar_w » 08 Jan 2020 03:30

ramana wrote:kit thanks.

supratik had found another article that breaks down the mfg plant for F35.


Back in 2015, they were expecting to make 200 in 2019.

16 "mate stations" to bring the major parts of the aircraft body together (forward, center and aft fuselages and aircraft wings
12 positions for final assembly
10 positions for spray paint preparation

https://www.defensedaily.com/lockheed-m ... navy-usmc/



The plant 4 upgrades for the F-35 have enough space, and infrastructure/capacity slack to build 17 aircraft a month. Current program-of-record and future estimates dont really go beyond 177 aircraft a year (Italy and US facilities though that'll change now that Japan is extending production for an additional 100 or so aircraft) so around 150-160 aircraft from plant 4. So there is plenty of flexibility as long as there is a 2 year lead time to build capacity, order equipment and hire workers. They've been doing just that for the last few years with steap production increases every other year. Big production increases (YOY) are now done. From here on it will be small increments of 10-20 aircraft increases per year.

Image

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby ramana » 08 Jan 2020 04:36

I am interested in seeing how 17 F35/month are being built while HAL barely makes 16 a year.
Something is not right in how MoD, IAF and HAL manage Tejas program

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby brar_w » 08 Jan 2020 04:46

The F-35 Final Assembly Line Ramps Up
https://sldinfo.com/2017/11/the-f-35-fi ... ing-curve/

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby ArjunPandit » 08 Jan 2020 05:32

ramana wrote:I am interested in seeing how 17 F35/month are being built while HAL barely makes 16 a year.
Something is not right in how MoD, IAF and HAL manage Tejas program

ramana guru,
may be i dont understand your full question, but wont the first step in making such high no. of planes is ordering planes, without orders how can one make planes. The next logical step would be to set up manufacturing facilities. US has done this thing for years from scratch and has at least 2 world beating companies (if i only consider Boeing and Lockheed).
I dont think we can't do it. I am sure there would be desi talent that would be happy to come back to india too for right price if money is paid and is not part of any alphabet soup treaty and can still add values or even desi talent who can do things if given right freedom. heck even china has mass manufactured. Needless to say, you are absolutely right in saying "Something is not right in how MoD, IAF and HAL". I took the tejas program part as it is a systematic problem. We still can get this right if we learn from mistakes of tejas and dont repeat for Mk1A, MWF, AMCA, NLCA, TEDBF, ORCA or whatever we do next..

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby SaiK » 08 Jan 2020 06:08

US is in highest level of robotics in manufacturing, and we can't vouch the same at HAL. Concurrent Engineering practices, and assembly lines are all that matters once a process is established. The right dependency means, enough buffer stocks are available for each LRUs, and rest is pure math.

Also, we need to move away from this advanced jugaad engineering to advanced engineering in productions.

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby ramana » 08 Jan 2020 06:27

brar_w wrote:The F-35 Final Assembly Line Ramps Up
https://sldinfo.com/2017/11/the-f-35-fi ... ing-curve/


Very good info. Useful things can be adopted by HAL.
SaiK we can always say we are low life SDRE and what do we know the taste of saffron? Or we can atleast add Kesar to the rice!

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby Dileep » 08 Jan 2020 07:24

Why Tejas build rate is slow?
The single biggest issue is the piecemeal orders. Cut a PO for 300, and you can see them churned out like unniyappams at Sabarimala.

It is not just HAL. Remember the poor sub supplier who has exactly the same problem at his scale.

It is my understanding that robotics is used only for the precision, not to save labour. Even airliners that are made 60 a month do not use robotics for assembly. It is all good old elbow grease.

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby Rakesh » 08 Jan 2020 07:43

Therein lies the problem. Piecemeal orders.

But MoD got time, energy, desire and drive to do Make in India for 114 MRCA fighters!! :roll:

It is all about job creation and get the economy rolling :lol:

When will we ever learn!

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby dinesh_kimar » 08 Jan 2020 08:38

SaiK wrote:US is in highest level of robotics in manufacturing.


I know a bit abt Concurrent Engineering.(I hope!).

It is overrated for aerospace.

It is ok for Japanese automobiles, where a strong politically connected program manager with support of top mgmt, deep communication and respect across departments , and no hidden facts, is the norm.

The fastest production rate for aircraft was in WW-II, when the time from clean sheet of paper to 1st production roll out happened in 9 months !

Nothing beats this, no robots, no AI, only the human mind with the clock ticking away at the background.

Apparently, concurrent engineering is not very good idea for Aerospace products, but having good people with multi domain experience who are slightly cross functional and understand roles of counterparts is good.

Russia bought Western machine tools and CAD/CAM/Robotics after 1991, but no one buys Russian airliners (apparently, neither does Russia.)

Why do batteries work on a Boeing 777 launched in 1995, and not work on a Boeing 787 in 2019?

Don't discount old engineering practice yet.

Tejas build rate is good, i remember they recently made 14-15 aircraft in a year. HAL has actually done a fine job inspite of all the confusion, and performed better than the private sector could have in this aspect.

This is on a manual assembly line, using Japanese lean practices, and pull system of flow.

The Rafale, with all uber automated line, is only 12 aircraft per year.

As pointed out above, more orders are required.

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby srai » 08 Jan 2020 10:52

ramana wrote:I am interested in seeing how 17 F35/month are being built while HAL barely makes 16 a year.
Something is not right in how MoD, IAF and HAL manage Tejas program

Total Orders are as follows:
  • 16 MK.1 IOC
  • 16 Mk.1 FOC
  • 8 Mk.1 Trainer FOC

At F-35 production rate, two and a half months and all done :((

I say place large orders and then see how the Indian MIC scales up.

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby Dileep » 08 Jan 2020 11:21

Concurrent engineering is actually a poison pill if not done under a very strong program management regime. It is not unlike protein shake and workout regime. Actually, Tejas program is an example of its bad side.

I think it is in desi habits to keep on tweaking things as they progress. It is good and useful when you are actually figuring out stage, but at some point someone of authority must decide "well, this is what we are going to build" and stick to that. Never happens in desi environment.

We work with both desi and gora programs. Both very similar in everything, except the desi customer is DRDO and gora is a corporate enterprise. End customer is the military of the respective countries. But the way they go about is totally different onlee.

Gora: Sets a framework initially. Works within that. Initial objective is to derive a detailed project definition. Once that is done. Things fall into the groove and the execution is tighly within that, as willed by almighty god.

Desi: Starts with some spec. Most of thoughts are 'outside the box'. Never have a fixed product definition. Things converge into something based on Karma. And the TD, Proto, LSP and various lots of SP are all entirely different product.

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby Barath » 08 Jan 2020 15:15

dinesh_kimar wrote:Don't discount old engineering practice yet.

The Rafale, with all uber automated line, is only 12 aircraft per year.


A timely reminder. But don't undersell Dassault. It was producing 14 arcraft per year back in 2008-09 and had to cut back given lack of orders to close to minimum economic production rate (and france subsidized this). Now with foreign orders flowing, it is gradually increasing production rate to2 per month from 1 /month

A production spike of over 100% followed by a production fall or even worse a production gap isn't a great thing. Avoiding a production gap via smoothing may be more important for HAL

Dileep wrote: It is my understanding that robotics is used only for the precision, not to save labour.


Varies. Automation can save time and cost, reduce labour and especially to increase precision, quality & repeatability. I read earlier of Boeing's attempt at canopy automation,and they weren't upto ONR/LM's mark here. In other cases, automation may work or may notbut the degree of automation and the context and steps automated matter.

Another ref: Some of the folks here may remember article on Boeing's "Black diamond" manufacturing initiative. I'll see if I can dig up something. The sldinfolink is a good resource; thanks.

ashishvikas wrote:HAL on a war-footing to roll out 4 new [FOC] Tejas variants in 3 months

via

In these additional structures being built, one of the airframe structures will be dedicated for MAFT (Main Air-frame Fatigue Test Specimen), which will be used for testing to extend the life of aircraft to minimum 3000 hours of flying....


Ouch. I vaguely remember CAG(?) reports of life issues now but how bad is it ? IIRC, Tejas was supposed to be 40 years ~=6000 hrs @ 150/year. Inputs/Data anyone ?

If IAF flogs the first fighters like it did the Su30K, then there could be a case for more Tejas orders later as replacement, assuming they fix the life issue
Last edited by Barath on 08 Jan 2020 15:27, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby mody » 08 Jan 2020 15:18

At the very least, the Mod and IAF ought to increase the orders for FoC MK1 by 16 aircrafts and MK1A by another 16 aircrafts. Add another 8-16 Naval MK1A aircrafts.
Also, the mandate for HAL should be to increase the production rate to 24 planes per annum by 2022 onwards. The MK1A production run, with the increased quantities as above should end at the latest by December 2026-27.
The production of the aircrafts can be as below:

2020 - 12nos. MK1
2021 - 4 nos. MK1+10 nos. MK1 Trainer
2022 - 8 nos. MK1 Trainer + 16 nos. Mk1
2023 - 8-12 nos. Naval + 8 nos. MK1A
2024 - 24 nos. MK1A
2025 - 24 nos. MK1A
2026 - 24 nos. MK1A
2027 - 9 nos. MK1A + Production for Mk2 starts.

Upgrade of the old MK1 planes to MK1A standard can happen in parallel as and when required by IAF. This will give us 8 squadrons of Mk1/MK1A aircrafts. Add 21 planes of MiG-29UPG as is being planned, plus 12 Su-30MKI, plus another 36 Rafael and we will have the replacement for the 4 squadrons of MiG-21M/MF, 4 squadrons of MiG-27s and 6 squadrons of MiG21-Bison.

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby Barath » 08 Jan 2020 15:43

mody wrote:At the very least, the Mod and IAF ought to increase the orders for FoC MK1 by 16 aircrafts and MK1A by another 16 aircrafts. Add another 8-16 Naval MK1A aircrafts.
Also, the mandate for HAL should be to increase the production rate to 24 planes per annum by 2022 onwards. The MK1A production run, with the increased quantities as above should end at the latest by December 2026-27.
....
2026 - 24 nos. MK1A
2027 - 9 nos. MK1A + Production for Mk2 starts.



I think the Navy has shown clearly that it is not interested in tejas Mk1/Mk1A . let alone one that is not navalized.. Why not focus on more Mk1A for IAF instead of Mk1 FOC ? If Mk1 has reduced aircraft life and is seriously flogged by IAF as a new type, some numbers can be justified..

I'm a little skeptical about the production timeline for Mk2, especially if one intends it to be full serial production. HAL has indicated (as have others) that it expects only to be System Integrator for future. With no prototype aircraft,and if there are significant changes from LCA into MWF expected, as well as significant production system changes /Tier 1 supplier stndup from current/Mk1A production, I would expect bumps and bruises in Mk2 roll out and extended limited series production also as possible. ie Stretched timeline to FOC/full production, not just delayed ones.

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby ashishvikas » 08 Jan 2020 18:12

Giant Super Tejas revealed: Our analysis

- by Hush-Kit

https://hushkit.net/2020/01/08/giant-su ... -analysis/

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby JayS » 08 Jan 2020 18:15

The Radar related discussion from last couple of pages moved to Radar thread. Continue there.

dinesh_kimar wrote:
I know a bit abt Concurrent Engineering.(I hope!).

It is overrated for aerospace.


Apparently, concurrent engineering is not very good idea for Aerospace products, but having good people with multi domain experience who are slightly cross functional and understand roles of counterparts is good.


Dileep wrote:Concurrent engineering is actually a poison pill if not done under a very strong program management regime. It is not unlike protein shake and workout regime. Actually, Tejas program is an example of its bad side.

I think it is in desi habits to keep on tweaking things as they progress. It is good and useful when you are actually figuring out stage, but at some point someone of authority must decide "well, this is what we are going to build" and stick to that. Never happens in desi environment.

We work with both desi and gora programs. Both very similar in everything, except the desi customer is DRDO and gora is a corporate enterprise. End customer is the military of the respective countries. But the way they go about is totally different onlee.

Gora: Sets a framework initially. Works within that. Initial objective is to derive a detailed project definition. Once that is done. Things fall into the groove and the execution is tighly within that, as willed by almighty god.

Desi: Starts with some spec. Most of thoughts are 'outside the box'. Never have a fixed product definition. Things converge into something based on Karma. And the TD, Proto, LSP and various lots of SP are all entirely different product.


These two posts are on the money.

I have said many times previously that the single biggest problem with our programs is unrealistic Program management. We need strong and pragmatic program managers who can put their foot down and say no to constant changes. Its fun for Defense forums and news wallas for constant changes to keep discussing, not so much for the engineers working on it.

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby dinesh_kimar » 08 Jan 2020 18:59

^ My post has an error:

The P-51 Mustang in WW-2 was built in 105 days, not 9 months. This is the fastest rate ever, from clean sheet of paper to Fly out.

The old R&D setups were co-located with Mfg. Plant, sometimes enabling true concurrent engineering.

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby kit » 08 Jan 2020 20:35

srai wrote:
ramana wrote:I am interested in seeing how 17 F35/month are being built while HAL barely makes 16 a year.
Something is not right in how MoD, IAF and HAL manage Tejas program

Total Orders are as follows:
  • 16 MK.1 IOC
  • 16 Mk.1 FOC
  • 8 Mk.1 Trainer FOC

At F-35 production rate, two and a half months and all done :((

I say place large orders and then see how the Indian MIC scales up.


Hmm., i have to say this . But look at the whole situation from the manufacturer's view point. So you want 200 fighters, and i want the whole order to be monetised with a certain percentage of profit. Now i cant manufacture the whole plane, i am more of a system parts integrator and so dependent on suppliers. Now suppliers also want profits, and how do they do it ?.. use the least amount of manpower since the products are high tech oriented there is not much of leeway in supplying the product with the requisite quality. How do all these work out ?.. they look at the "big picture".. what is already ordered and how much is in the pipeline (potentials).. Given the indian "rate of procurement," i wont be surprised if all vendors play a risk free approach to err on the lower side !! ( the new "MMRCA" is actually a weighed anchor in calculations ) .
Coming back to 200 planes now, yes if all vendors are firing on all cylinders ( ! ) and i have the capital for a 20 + jig assemblies, then " maybe" i could churn out 10-15 a month and finish off the entire contract in a year and a half ... and ...sit on my bum for the nearest future "order" to come in !! .. did i make a profit ?.. no, all those capital had actually been wasted after 18 mth waiting for order !!.. so smart move , " considering all options" ..stretch the production over the " indian procurement waiting time" so another order comes by end of it !! .. me happy, vendors happy, the end user ?.. maybe not so much !!

Alternative? ,.. have a competition to HAL , see how everything magically comes into place, motivation, price, quality and all , with multiple vendors and competing production lines, Tejas will literally fly off to export levels...cheaper than estimated.

HAL NEEDS COMPETITION.PERIOD.

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby srai » 08 Jan 2020 22:36

^^^
There won’t be competition for small piecemeal orders!

Any takers for a 16 aircraft order?

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby Kartik » 08 Jan 2020 23:12

Dileep wrote:Why Tejas build rate is slow?
The single biggest issue is the piecemeal orders. Cut a PO for 300, and you can see them churned out like unniyappams at Sabarimala.

It is not just HAL. Remember the poor sub supplier who has exactly the same problem at his scale.

It is my understanding that robotics is used only for the precision, not to save labour. Even airliners that are made 60 a month do not use robotics for assembly. It is all good old elbow grease.


I am really surprised that people are even comparing the F-35 build rate with the Tejas..one program has over 1000 orders and the other 40 confirmed and 83 about to be confirmed. How can HAL come anywhere near the level of investment that LM and its suppliers have made for the huge F-35 order pipeline? Even then, HAL is able to produce a Tejas in just about the same time as Dassault or most other OEMs from start of metal cutting, isn't it?

As for robotics, recently on a visit to the Everett Boeing plant, I saw several robots that were de-commissioned because they were taking LONGER than the humans that were previously doing the job. The humans were brought back to do those activities and several of those robots were just left aside.

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby ramana » 09 Jan 2020 01:09

We have two issues from above discussion.

1) Development is never complete with user asking DRDO for tweaks eternally.

Development is never ever complete.

2) Production has its own set of inefficiencies.

All can be traced to:

3) Weak program management

So what can be done wrt 3) for that will fix 1) and 2)?

Dileep, I hear what you are saying but its not like HAL is most efficient shop.

There are lesson to be learned and we need to find out.
The minute I posted the F-35 article SaiK jumped in with Robotics advantage which turned out to be bokwas.
Kartik visit to Boeing plant attests to that.
The F-35 article posted by brar_w shows there are non automation measures that reduce the time of production.
Can't go on saying its lack of orders.
maybe they need plant equipment also.

What is HAL doing with in its sphere of influence to speed the production?
They may be burning mid night oil.
I want to know that.

BTW HVT tweeted that HAL is working day and night on the Mk1A designs.
And it was in response to a conversation.

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby ramana » 09 Jan 2020 01:11

dinesh

Apparently, concurrent engineering is not very good idea for Aerospace products, but having good people with multi domain experience who are slightly cross functional and understand roles of counterparts is good.


Also look at how the P-80 Shooting Star was designed and built.
It led to a long line of fighter planes.
About 2000!

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby ArjunPandit » 09 Jan 2020 04:38

a very stupid question, what if HAL starts making Tejas out of its own money? does HAL not have that financial freedom? lets say it doesnt wait for the orders to will IAF do a price gouging with a GOI entity?

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby Indranil » 09 Jan 2020 04:45

^^^ The short answer is "to an extent". But, there are 15 LCHs waiting on the tarmac. That's a considerable chunk of HAL's reserves.

I really really wish that they design a AJT based on Hawk, IJT and Tejas. Something that the F5 Tiger IIE class.

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby ramana » 09 Jan 2020 04:53

Indranil wrote:^^^ The short answer is "to an extent". But, there are 15 LCHs waiting on the tarmac. That's a considerable chunk of HAL's reserves.

I really really wish that they design a AJT based on Hawk, IJT and Tejas. Something that the F5 Tiger IIE class.



Whats the use case for it?

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby Vivek K » 09 Jan 2020 05:51

So - why is India not able to field a much superior force structure compared to the Pakistanis with a broken economy and GDP lower than Bangladesh? Can we continue to gloss over this fact? How does the current parity in numbers come about when we are so much bigger in economic terms (50:1 per Peregrine's stock market capitalization comparisons)?

My point is - IA - had a great opportunity with Arjun to mass produce it in numbers and decimate Puki armor, but they chose to stick with T-90 perhaps about 1500-1800 total numbers with T-72s maybe another 200-300 odd T-72s able to come out of depots to fight. IA could have ordered 1500 Arjuns which would be a qualitative and a quantitative leap ahead of the enemy but yet IA chose to kill off the project. The Dhanush/ATAGS etc. - with several highly capable guns available, IA could overwhelm the enemy. With so many locally produced options, they wouldn't be reliant on any single vendor leading to healthy competition, better products ultimately and overall a large economic stimulus to the nation (with Arjun and artillery) - yet IA is looking to kill this project with dubious comments about problems with the guns.

In the same vein, IAF had the capability with the Marut to mass produce it in numbers, keep tinkering with engine and airframe research (MK1R) till a solution was found. And what did it do - killed off the Marut, bought an underpowered Jaguar that is now being phased out since re-engining costs have gone up. And of course the Mig-27 was also, per some needing a more powerful engine. We see the same effort now on with the Tejas Mk1 - orders are restricted to 40 with another order for MK1A that is being discussed for a couple of years without a contract being signed. If the IAF had wanted (and this would have come in handy post Balakot), it could have ordered 200 - 300 Mk1s with some 3-4 years ago about the time they were clamoring for the radome upgrade and IFR proble installation. Without available refuellers, what good is the IFR probe - perhaps it adds aerodynamic penalty and vision obstruction at particular angles. But the IAF called it a Mig-21++ and a three legged cheetah in disdain preferring the insanely expensive Rafale (perhaps the worst decision in Indian History) over the LCA. The situation with the "whizkid" "answer to every problem" Rafaleis eerily similar to the MKIs when they were ordered. They were supposed to be the answer to counter anything that PAF or PLAAF possessed. Based on all that was put out about how superior the MKI was to anything else in the world, one would have though that in the post Balakot PAF counter strike, IAF's Sukhois would have been able to shoot down every attacking aircraft, or given them a bloody nose chasing them back to their bases. Now we can spin and turn but the facts at best are - 1 F16 for 1 Mig-21. The result should have been asymmetric - 5 or more F-16s for 1 Mig. And then the PAF would have thought twice about crossing the LOC again. I am not even going to talk about the Netra story which is downright shameful (please don't hide behind the Embraer is blacklisted excuse).

The Navy has been a bit better than the others. Yet release of orders is so small that even PN is able to compete with bakshish money and can buy Chinese Frigates to compete. The opportunity has existed for years to a) release orders for say Delhi Class, Shivalik Class, Calcutta Class in 12 ship lots instead of the paltry 3 ship lots. China started later in the Aircraft Carrier business and is now ahead with 2 operating carriers and a third in construction.

So it cannot be babudom alone that is keeping India from ordering equipment in numbers to march ahead of Pakistan (or crush them economically by forcing them to spend on hardware as much as us). It cannot also be because of resource crunch as well as we seem to have no qualms about buying the most expensive aircraft ever produced in history in numbers. Are we stupid? Or are we so corrupt that we're selling our mother without any remorse - for a few dollars more? If this continues in this decade, India will cease to exist.

Another thing to think about - there are things we cannot change but there are others that we can yet we chose not to. I'm talking about BRF. The forum has several hardcore roosi rakshaks that do not even pretend to think about the national interest in military and economic terms for even a minute. And they are given a free run without a thought about how negatively they post about "real" national security. As a result, they spew shiny brochure details all over the forum.

Some here hold China in disdain because it reverse engineers even a photograph to produce fighter, ships, missiles etc. I think Chanakya taught us never to underestimate the enemy - yet we continue holding their efforts in disdain. Why? They remain ahead of us in economic and military terms. They got there by hook or by crook. What stops us? We cannot beat the Chinese without thinking like them. There is no point in developing quadruplex FBW systems, mission computers or complex and detailed flight control laws if we're going to kill the projects that use these.

When I think about this situation and then about Rabindranath Tagore's "Where the mind is without fear" I feel very afraid.

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby fanne » 09 Jan 2020 06:39

Thums up!!
for the problem statement. How do we solve that?

ramana
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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby ramana » 09 Jan 2020 07:43

fanne wrote:Thums up!!
for the problem statement. How do we solve that?


Agree to the tour de force post.

How do we solve that?
First break down what he really said in the long post.

MoD system: babus, services are reluctant to give quantity orders to sustain indigenous defence production.
Various impediments are put in from development stage:
1)AQSRs based on combing the best of the brochures with out nary a thought of what Indian needs are really,
2) moving goalposts,
3) very low trickle funding, and then
4) innumerable trials and
5) incorrect trials and
6) when production time comes haggle like crazy for very small production runs.
7) Write disparaging articles on Indian made products
8 ) even when they belong to a different service!!!
The whole system is to kill domestic development and manufacture of the defence products.
Why is that?

In vivek's post one big factor is not mentioned.
The underlying circumstances or environment.

After death of Gandhi, Indian business did not fund Congress like it used to do before.
So Nehru found defence imports are good to pad and skim for party funding. This allowed him funds off the scrutiny (defence is sacred cow) Didn't matter they were weapons that were hardly useful for the land based threat and were craypy planes from the British. And also big ticket items so that the cut is bigger. Eg. aircraft over spares, tanks over rifles, aircraft carrier over frigates and destroyers. You get the idea.
This required a special type of cadre both civilian and military who will push for imports. Various techniques were developed and perfected to sustain the imported weapons drive. And these are listed above in the 8 factors named. There could be more subtle ones via QA to scrap whole lot and show production is bad.
Then Rajiv Gandhi hit upon anew twist to this plot. he diverted the funds to his personal Swiss bank account.
This collapsed his government once it was revealed in 1988.

Now enter the babucracy nexus of : babus, arms peddlers, procurement directorate officials (civil and military). This coterie also known as Chandigarh brigade ruled roost for ~ 30 years till 2018. They were unchallenged kings of what they saw and even threatened sitting generals as we saw. They identify procurement directorate folks while they are at Major rank level

Now this coterie suddenly faced Manohar Parrikar who figured this simple scam and brought in measures to check them.
So some lesson by observing MP.

You need to reform the procurement process
means eliminate propensity to import
If you increase the defence budget it will go to imports.
Cut out middle men.
and so on.

Very glad we have ACM Bahduria who is committed to Tejas system.
Navy is already there.
Lost in the CDs decision was that Army had accepted Arjun Mk1A pending Mk2.
And CDS will clean up logistic and repair hubs which are another source of scams.
lets see.

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby suryag » 09 Jan 2020 07:47

Sir - for gods sake please set up a modern engineering education college for Army, kindly check the content of their courses you would realize how inadequate our Army folks are when it comes to engineering.

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby Dileep » 09 Jan 2020 07:49

Some time ago, I read an article about "the problems of growing up poor". It talked about the behavioral traits we acquire in younger age, that continue to linger on even after we are no longer poor.

It really resonated with me, because I am exactly that. I grew up poor (half starving level poor. Not "I didn't even have a phone and had to take the bus to school" poor)

Exactly the same issue with our country. Answers all questions raised by Vivek K.

For people, it takes two generations to get out of the mindset. My future grandkids are likely not affected. For bigger collectives like nations, it may take a century or more.

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby manjgu » 09 Jan 2020 08:28

there is lot of vested interest in keeping the status quo !! what will IAS do if u privatise everything...imagine how senior def officers and others have to line up in front of some lowly babus office, who will ask them for favours, how babus draft tenders etc to favour certain parties etc ? how will the netas make money if everything is getting built in india? this is not about modern engineering education ...Army job is to fight not do R&D and enough officers go to IIT etc for higher education and follow up courses.

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby fanne » 09 Jan 2020 08:54

We are struggling with the root cause of the problem (of indigenous product not making to production fast)
Being here at BRF for almost 20 years, let me reduce it in few sentences what people have been saying
1.As per Ramna ji, all he is saying that the root cause is corruption. Imports gives cut to politicians, babus, defense personnel, hangers on (media dalal and other middle man such as damad ji or bhatija ji). Alternative to LCA is $10 billion opportunity - even at 1% ($100 million, 700 carore), there is lots of money to be made
2.It is not corruption - forces know best. The product that we have - LCA, Arjun, xxxx are really not up to the standard (of imported equipment), a Rafael vs LCA or T-90 vs Arjun (size, gas vs diesel etc etc) can mean the difference between life and depth or victory and loss. Let the force choose the best weapon
3.Then there is another theory - it is not the above (or could be in some measure, but not the whole reason). We do not have a mature R&D or manufacturing base for weapons or a user that can guide local development/provide realistic ASQR or a central agency (like DAPRA/DOD that have long term vision) to make it happen, - We are getting there, we are maturing and the products and the pains that we see is because we are not there yet. Once we mature, we will see a ASQR written rightly, R&D conducted as it happens in west and production done that will shame the chinses. Till then it is how it is.
4. We do not have a whole system for this to work. It has many moving part (Long term planning, ASQR based on that, R&D, testing and then production, Rinse and repeat). All of them have inefficiencies built in and inefficiency at each stage kills the final product (in this it assumes that we have all the right ingredients, unlike option 3, but they are not being optimally used). In this if we get the right people/circumstance we do end up with product that the forces use - like Brahmos, or SSBN, or all the SS missiles, new clear detergents etc.
5....
Till we do not know the real reason (and it can be many), it is hard to solve it. Each of them needs a different solution. I will take a shot at it (it's just intellectual master....., but FWIW, here it is
1. If it is corruption, should be easy...but if it were, this GOI would have definitely removed it (that can also be said about ABV govt). Maybe it is subtle, well entrenched and so deep that removing it may unravel the whole IA/IAF/IN. But if it is corruption, boy that is a very big fight. I would suspect that CDS then is one way to bypass this entrenched system (and it is one of GOI responses). Other measure could be to take executive decisions and force the issue (after all Mig 21 was chosen by the politicians against IAF preferred candidate, or Jags or SU30MKI) - why not the same decision for LCA or Arjun or ATAGS. The only thing is we do not know if these products are really good. We thought SU30MKI was best thing since sliced bread, but only to discover it is not. One can definitely find enough current and retired IA/IAF/IN personnel who are not part of this import syndicate that can inform GOI on the effectiveness of the weapon. If they say yes, Order the forces to take it. Also one has to punish the Bhatija ji and Damad jis with some of the personnel (the one who walked into Shri VKS office and threatened him to accept a product), this will create some deterrence. If these traitors are any good, they would have files on the govt as well to blackmail. Total mess (and perhaps the most reasonable root cause) as it matches the symptoms
2. It could very well be that these weapons are really not up to scratch (in spite of the brochure). But LCA is not replacing Rafale, heck it is not even at this point replacing Mig 21, it is only replacing 11 sq of planes that do not exist (we are at 31 sq vs 42 authorized). It has to be better than nothing. It should be acquired for this reason. Similarly if ATAGS should be acquired if it is better than 130 mm gun or Akash because it is better than SA-6 or better than all those SAMS that we should have had, but do not have. Solution is simple, GOI should force the hand and ask them to order it at least in limited quantity so that next iteration is better and so that we have the minimum authorized number. Even a not so great weapon is better than none.
3. If third is an issue, IN has practices that have been quite successful. Copy paste it and further improve it. Why not order a bigger batch, improving every ship a bit more does not standardize things and does not lend itself to mass production. There will always be something better or something can be improved and can be done for the next 1000 years. The Chinese 052 may not be great, but they are producing it in HUUUGGGE quantity. P15b maybe better, but 10 052 (even 2 for that matter), can beat 1 P15B. the funding can not also be drip funding. We need an aerospace engine, and GTRE may have failed us. But nothing stops us from building testing facility, duplication of critical technology (not the whole engine, it will be costly, it looks like the most coveted are SC blades and thermal coating, let 4-5 groups just duplicate that work alone), or sensor tech (not the whole missile), multiple groups try it, even one fails does not mean it is the end of the world).
4.If we have everything, it is just the people and leadership missing, this shouldn't be hard to solve...right people, put them there and empower them, remove people who are bottle necks (bean counters - or limit them to bean counting).

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby Indranil » 09 Jan 2020 10:30

ramana wrote:
Indranil wrote:^^^ The short answer is "to an extent". But, there are 15 LCHs waiting on the tarmac. That's a considerable chunk of HAL's reserves.

I really really wish that they design a AJT based on Hawk, IJT and Tejas. Something that the F5 Tiger IIE class.



Whats the use case for it?

In 15 years, IAF will start looking for an AJT. We need 15 years to develop one. The LCA trainer is too sophisticated as an AJT. Notice that USAF's of the Boeing/SAAB T-7 is simpler. The availability requirement of an AJT is roughly three times that of a frontline fighter at roughly half the maintenance cost.

The single seat version could be Mig21/F5 IIE class fighter. The MWF/Girpen E/F is too sophisticated for a lot of airforces. Something lighter,simpler, more affordable and maintAnable is desired. I think the Turks have got it right with their upcoming Hurjet. The Chinese L15 is another good player in this space.

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby brar_w » 09 Jan 2020 10:38

The M-346FA, T-50/F-50, L-15AW and others are going around in the same class. The USAF is also trying to resist Congressional calls for a "light attack aircraft" as far into the future as possible so that they can buy a T-7 variant to quit the politicos down and swiftly transfer them over for aggressor and red-air duties. I believe the Russians too have an attack variant planned (or available) for their trainer...I'm not sure how important the space would be in a decade with the way drones are proliferating but it would be an interesting class to follow.

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby Vivek K » 09 Jan 2020 11:27

fanne ji,

1. Corruption - Is the main issue. We hang our hopes on one person or the other. But we are unable to get it out of our system. It is all pervasive. When he came to power, Rajiv Gandhi was Mr. clean and did some good work. By the time he was ousted from power, the cleanliness was lost buying Bofors. Same with others that followed. Now we hang our hat on Modi - yet make in India is falling by the wayside and we call assemble in India as a good substitute. Then comes ACM Badhuria and we all hang our hats on a couple of his statements. We will watch and see how he shapes up - the MK1A order is not yet signed. We have decided to retire Mig-27s and Jags yet there is no urgency for the inducting Mk1 LCAs in numbers. But we are very concerned about 18 more Rafale - the most insanely expensive aircraft to hit our shores. Will it provide the same coverage as 4-5 LCAs? Or will the IAF chief 15 years later say the PAK-FA is the only solution to the PAF F-16s and not the AMCA or the ORCA or MWF or whatever. For heaven's sake is patriotism dead in India?
2. Forces know best - well I give you Marut and its replacements - Jaguar & Mig-27; 3 Netras purchase; Or the Arjun purchase - forces reporting torsion bar failure in Arjun, the Renk transmission sabotage and the best one of them all is the breakdown of the T-90 Bheeshma at the Tank Biathlon. I wish they wouldn't take our heroes's names and attach them to these imported midgets!! The best example of forces knowing best is the much hyped Sukhoi 30 MKI - supposedly the solution to our problems, the best air dominance fighter in the world! Well, great it wasn't shot down by the F-16s but where did the dominance go when it was really needed?
3. I am not sure what the point here is - if we cannot write an ASQR then we should perhaps outsource this job to foreign vendors? Come sir, you seriously don't believe that.
4. By whole system you probably mean a MIC - how will you have a MIC if you don't buy local weapons in large numbers. Can you have a local MIC with an order of 40 aircraft or 83? To have a local MIC, IA should have ordered 1500 Arjuns after it beat the T90s in a biased one on one test (what the IA actually did is so shameful that I will not write it here). To have a local MIC, IAF should have been still flying the Maruts, just like it is flying the Mig-21s that apart being lethal to the enemy, have been harsh on our pilots too. The Netra presented a perfect opportunity to be mass purchased - IAF could have bought up to 15-20 after all India is a large country with multiple threats. And the IN was using Mig-29Ks @ less than 10% serviceability but it doesn't want to buy the NLCA Mk2.

The only solution - root out corruption and unpatriotic behavior wherever you see it. But it is as difficult today as it was when the Marut first flew.

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby Karan M » 09 Jan 2020 12:39

Man, you are stuck in a time gone by and can't see the positive changes happening in front of your own eyes. I could quote a dozen examples, but what's the point if you keep complaining?

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby fanne » 09 Jan 2020 19:26

Karan M wrote:Man, you are stuck in a time gone by and can't see the positive changes happening in front of your own eyes. I could quote a dozen examples, but what's the point if you keep complaining?


Of course this GOI will be correcting this, if not this GOI then who?
I am sad to know that it is corruption and nothing else (other reasons may be valid but then serve as are mere excuses to facilitate this corruption). I was more hoping that it was immaturity of product/process that explains the delays.

In retrospective, it makes sense. This uber nationalist GOI would not massively hike defense spending, because perhaps it knew that most of it is going towards corruption.

What suggestions we can give to unravel this whole thing?

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby ramana » 09 Jan 2020 20:30

They know what to fix and are doing it.
Only we can't see it as we know everything.

A review of last 30 years proposals and rejections came up with the constant standard reasons on both sides.

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby pkudva » 09 Jan 2020 22:05

Like a Typical Indian Process Targets are tried to be met only in Q4. Why the concept of Progressive delivery at efficient Global acceptance level can be achieved by HAL.

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Re: Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A: News & Discussions: 23 February 2019

Postby ramana » 09 Jan 2020 22:27

The supply chain is not fully functional and its understood.
Once funding flow is smooth that will be norm.
Interesting that 4 units of the FOC order will be delivered in march but the rest only later.


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