Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 01 Mar 2019 04:51

I really wish the GOI put some more effort into Information Warfare. Significant efforts should be put into push the point that the PAF came the worse off of the other day's exchange and their elite F-16s lost out to a MiG-21 Bison. This belief in a "martial" clan, whether the PAF, PA etc is core to their identity. It needs to be challenged and mocked. On a plus side, these efforts alone may force the Pakistanis to invite another mega a$$ whooping.

I do believe the success and pan India hype around Uri was a factor for the Pakistanis to pull a Pulwama style stunt or accelerate whatever original timetable they had. They just couldn't live with the humiliation.

We need a movie or web series around Balakot,stat but in the meantime, the truth about the F-16 shootdown should be out and aggresively communicated and made to go viral. That alone may force them into something rash which we can use to give them another nice spanking.

Ashokk · Post by **Ashokk** » 01 Mar 2019 04:52

‘PM Modi not ready to talk to Imran until Pakistan acts against terrorism’

NEW DELHI: India on Thursday responded to Pakistan foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi’s suggestion that his PM Imran Khan might speak to his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi, by saying that the neighbouring country should first “create the environment” for New Delhi to consider talks at the highest level.

Top level sources said India expects the Pakistan PM to investigate terror groups and infrastructure operating from Pakistan’s soil as a pre-condition to consider any proposal for an engagement at the highest level. Sources said despite the relief of getting back IAF pilot Wing Commander Abhinanandan Varthaman, Modi will speak to Imran Khan after seeing “immediate, credible, verifiable action against terrorists and their infrastructure”.

“PM Imran Khan is ready to talk to Narendra Modi on the telephone and ready to extend an invitation of peace. Is Modi ready?” Qureshi had asked in the morning.

On Thursday evening, Russian President Vladimir Putin called PM Modi to express his condolences about the Pulwama attack and in support for India’s fight against terrorism.

Meanwhile, the government remained busy in its diplomatic outreach to key countries, many of whom have stepped in to de-escalate tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. India has stressed that Pakistan’s military aggression on Wednesday was a major escalation. India said it had focused on one terror camp in a “non-military, pre-emptive strike”, but Pakistan retaliated by targeting military installations. “How can that be a non-military strike? The only accurate thing Pakistan said was that they missed their targets,” said a source.

India’s main interlocutors are the P-5 nations, as well as UAE and Saudi Arabia, two close friends of Pakistan. In fact, after the OIC issued a stern line against India’s strikes in Balakot, India ste-pped up to the OIC leadership to see whether Sushma Swaraj would be snubbed when she speaks at the OIC plenary on Friday. India was assured that she would be received with “honour”, sources said.

Saudi Arabia’s ambassador met Modi on Thursday morning. Mohammed bin Zayed, crown prince of UAE and a close friend of India, tweeted in the evening that he had spoken to both the PMs and “stressed the importance of dealing wisely with recent developments”.

India reached out to its key partners US, UK, France, Russia and others to sensitise them about the reason for the Balakot strike.

Sources said the Pakistan government had called foreign embassies in Islamabad to say that India had positioned missiles, ordered ships to blockade Karachi port and was amassing thousands of troops on the border. “Since none of this can be done secretly, soon it became clear to everybody that Pakistan’s claims were fictitious,” a source said.

India has concluded that Pakistan was creating a “war psychosis”, largely to get the international community to paint India as the aggressor and obscuring the reason for its strike in Balakot. Sources said India had insisted it was targeting terrorism inside Pakistan since Islamabad is unwilling to tackle it.

India told its interlocutors that it had decided against giving intelligence to Pakistan. After Mumbai and Pathankot, India gave them dossiers and detailed intelligence, even allowing Pakistani investigators to a forward base. But Pakistan had refused to take action. Still, India had given Pakistan a large dossier on JeM regarding Pulwama, which was acknowledged by the Pakistan foreign ministry which promised to “study” it.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 01 Mar 2019 04:58

Ashokk wrote:‘PM Modi not ready to talk to Imran until Pakistan acts against terrorism’

Excellent move. Hand over all four - Hafiz Saeed, Sayeed Salahudeen, Masood Azhar and Dawood Ibrahim - to India and then we will think about talking. Of the four, Salahudeen and Dawood are Indian citizens. What are they doing in Pakistan? Has their visa not expired yet?

Deport them back to India.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 01 Mar 2019 05:02

sanjaykumar wrote:I don't think there will be more. Pakistanis have no stomach for it. From the looks of those impressively uniformed Pak military heads on the morning after the Balakot corrective beating to the absolute fear in some of the tweets from Karachi the night this little matter was finished, there is no need for India to make any threats let alone demonstrate its power again.

The fact they managed a strike the next day showed they had forced themselves into having a stomach for it. And we need to keep pushing the envelope, to really puncture their bombast and bravado.

And its high time we had an integrated strategy to really strangle them, esp. their economy & create a collapse of the PA-civilian consensus.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Mar 2019 05:04

Karan M wrote:On what grounds do we escalate now?

I guess we just need to talk it up that we won, and that alone will give the phallic challenged Pakistanis apoplexy and force them to attack us.

PAF attacked military installations. Though damage was negligible.
This is usually called war.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 01 Mar 2019 05:09

Karan M wrote:
sanjaykumar wrote:I don't think there will be more. Pakistanis have no stomach for it. From the looks of those impressively uniformed Pak military heads on the morning after the Balakot corrective beating to the absolute fear in some of the tweets from Karachi the night this little matter was finished, there is no need for India to make any threats let alone demonstrate its power again.
The fact they managed a strike the next day showed they had forced themselves into having a stomach for it. And we need to keep pushing the envelope, to really puncture their bombast and bravado.

And its high time we had an integrated strategy to really strangle them, esp. their economy & create a collapse of the PA-civilian consensus.

It is not for India to collapse the PA civilian symbiosis. If Pakistanis consent to it, so be it. Pakistan has this year graduated to the nation with the highest infant mortality rate. India's US dollar GDP will surpass Germany's shortly. We can afford to ignore Pakistan as long as it keeps its tanzeems killing domestically.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 01 Mar 2019 05:09

Karan M wrote:I really wish the GOI put some more effort into Information Warfare. Significant efforts should be put into push the point that the PAF came the worse off of the other day's exchange and their elite F-16s lost out to a MiG-21 Bison. This belief in a "martial" clan, whether the PAF, PA etc is core to their identity. It needs to be challenged and mocked. On a plus side, these efforts alone may force the Pakistanis to invite another mega a$$ whooping.

Personally, I disagree with that. I would rather that GoI continue doing what it did - characterize this as a fight with JeM , not with TSP. Of course, TSP retaliated. Everyone knows that. But I believe it is a longer term bonus if GoI instead leaves the matter of the military skirmish to the military alone to speak about. TSP can have Dimran do the job, but on our end, the triforces chiefs are sufficient. NaMo can just imply that India will keep looking for ways to hit the JeM/LeT , and let those hyenas argue with PA about how the PA is supposed to protect them.

In my view, there is enormous value in rupturing the social contract between the terrorists (the hyena) and the armed forces (p1mp) in TSP. Balakot proved that they can sit cocooned deep within TSP and we can and will still vaporize them. When their p1mp picks a fight with us in retaliation, the best option is to ignore the p1mp's escalation, keep a poker face, and say we totally support them in their quest to end terror, reach around and slap the hyena by their feet one more time , and say "see?" . It's best to encourage the hyenas to keep pushing the p1mp at us, and we simply blunt him with much superior forces, while continuing to look at the hyena with a look that say "doesn't matter how deep inside TSP you're hiding, we'll do this again. And again".

TSP doesn't want conventional war with us. The hyenas are their tool. Take on the hyenas directly and make them push the PA at us. The end result is that it turns the entire calculus of their approach on its head. The hyenas no longer have the safety, and the p1mp does NOT want a ground war they will lose; their kept puppy will be at their throats because they can't offer the protection racket anymore. We keep talking of the TSP end game. This is the end game.

GoI is taking exactly this approach:
India Will Target Terror Camps As Long As Pakistan Continues To Harbour Terrorists

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Mar 2019 05:10

Rakesh wrote:https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/1100795650160025600 ---> By denying that they have a lost a F-16 & tom-tomming the capture of our pilot the Pakistanis have made a strategic mistake. Calibrating their 'face saving' PAF counter-action to stay under our threshold for escalation was always going to be difficult.

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/1101121154347986944 ----> When the S-400 is fully deployed, the Pakistan Air Force will not have the luxury of hanging back in its own home space and luring our CAP pilots towards them. It will be lights out.

Very true. Operation Balakot and aftermath will be the last war that IAF will fight with old planes and old SAMs.

New planes : Tejas, Rafale, Su 30 MKI, Jaguar, M2K and Mig-29 Upgrades,

New SAMs like S-400 and Akash and Akash -1S

deWalker · Post by **deWalker** » 01 Mar 2019 05:10

One other item of great import worth noting - all this action (and more!) is possible without the scaremongering of ataami escalation. Bakis have comprehensively acknowledged that conventional action can proceed irrespective of their nook (nood) status.

Diwakar

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 01 Mar 2019 05:13

Ramana, is that the line the bureucratic elements in our establishment are taking? The above articles paint a very different view. Its back to dossier-work and appealing to this foreign Govt, that foreign Govt.

What was the need of holding the tri-service meet Y'day. They could have held it later, received our pilot and taken a strong stand thereafter.

This entire, by the book, we are boxing in Pak, MEA led stuff of making clever statements "non-military strike" etc falls flat with Pakistan, because it is a thug and it and the PRC, have got away with being thugs and bullies so far. The only logic that they appreciate is that of force & we had a good chance this time around to use Balakot as an excuse & give them a few hard blows in J&K, whilst offering to de-escalate thereafter Yes, it would have been brinksmanship +100, but a logical extension of actually hurting them over Pulwama & making a point about not sponsoring terror in India. We can still do this. We should not let this issue disappear and keep the pressure on.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 01 Mar 2019 05:16

ramana wrote:
Karan M wrote:On what grounds do we escalate now?

I guess we just need to talk it up that we won, and that alone will give the phallic challenged Pakistanis apoplexy and force them to attack us.
PAF attacked military installations. Though damage was negligible.
This is usually called war.

Gen bikram singh made the same point on tv. We need to hammer this point that it was an act of war

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Mar 2019 05:18

KaranM, Pulwama attack was a defeat for Pakistan Army and its the PAF that has paid the price.
In Islamic dictatorships it takes some time for this to settle in.
You can cover up only so long.
I expect a crack down on the jihadi faction of TSPA if they follow the Turkish model.
In mid 1800s, Ottoman Sultan cracked down on the Janissary who had become hereditary soldiers and set in their ways.
The TSPA jihadis are the Janissary of the modern era.

And the reaction when it comes is brutal.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Mar 2019 05:20

Atmavik, We need to hammer them not just the point.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Mar 2019 05:23

Karan M wrote:Ramana, is that the line the bureucratic elements in our establishment are taking? The above articles paint a very different view. Its back to dossier-work and appealing to this foreign Govt, that foreign Govt.

What was the need of holding the tri-service meet Y'day. They could have held it later, received our pilot and taken a strong stand thereafter.

This entire, by the book, we are boxing in Pak, MEA led stuff of making clever statements "non-military strike" etc falls flat with Pakistan, because it is a thug and it and the PRC, have got away with being thugs and bullies so far. The only logic that they appreciate is that of force & we had a good chance this time around to use Balakot as an excuse & give them a few hard blows in J&K, whilst offering to de-escalate thereafter Yes, it would have been brinksmanship +100, but a logical extension of actually hurting them over Pulwama & making a point about not sponsoring terror in India. We can still do this. We should not let this issue disappear and keep the pressure on.

We always have the high road and the low road or as Kaal Chiron says the right hand and the left hand doctrines.

Modi uses both.
The details of Balakot strike are not released yet.
One strike convinced the KSA to give 3T to Pakistan.
Now China is nikkah hallala for TSP e.g. CPEC etc.

Give time and don't go by press statements.

shyamal · Post by **shyamal** » 01 Mar 2019 05:25

Our establishment is taking a very firm line. There are absolutely no conciliatory noises. The tri-service chiefs press-meet showed about as hard a stand as can be taken without openly calling war.
There will always be background diplomacy. Pak has been very effectively isolated.
And for once our TV channels are completely toeing the GOI line.
All the messaging from GOI and Indian media(atleast channels like India today, timesnow, Cnn18 etc) are - "no deals. deescalation not possible without steps taken against terrorism."

khan · Post by **khan** » 01 Mar 2019 05:26

Karan M wrote:
Your arguments are predicated on a totally pointless misreading of what I posted and hence you have gone off on a tangent. In effect, you are preaching to the choir. Its not about what I or what we on BRF believe or don't believe. We all know their attack on our military establishments was an act of war. Period.

Think from the perspective of the Govt and the international pressure it is under now to not "warmonger" and "you got your pilot back" sort of rubbish.

The real test is, if India matches Pakistan’s escalation, can it be justified? The answer is clearly yes. Another briefing by some Babu - after the Act is done will take care of the optics. For one example, notice how the mood shifted once that 20 minute tri-Service briefing was done.

This whole “international pressure” thing is built on sentiment that will shift as a fait-accompli - after the deed is done.

Karan M wrote: My concern, if you had followed my prior posts, is simple. Pakistan has managed the optics of this entire post Balakot escalation such that it has convinced its domestic populace that it retained its H&D, and the conflict has been too short for their economy or them to really feel the pinch and beg us to de-escalate.

Again, forget about “optics” and focus on what is justifiable. The optics will take care of themselves as a fait accompli.

Karan M wrote:Nor have we achieved a long term aim beyond setting some sort of precedence that we will strike "non-military targets" and giving Jaish a temporary bloody nose.

Yes, but the temperature can be raised gradually. Next time, the IAF can take out something closer to town and then even closer until finally they get to Madrassa’s in the middle of Karachi.

Karan M wrote:We really should have retaliated hard after the morning Pak raid and shot down a few F-16s and then offered a ceasefire.

Yes, and I am sure next time, the entire CAP force will be much more aggressive, and within minutes of them going back into Pakistani air-space, wolf-packs will he launched to take them down. I don’t think this mistake will be repeated.

Karan M wrote:This entire he said, she said does not constitute deterrence and by stopping our aggressive positioning now, we end up frittering away our tactical advantages.

Yes, and of all people, Prime Minister Modi knows this, which is why - I hope he follows his instincts and matches Pakistan’s escalation.

*Note my careful use of the term “matches Pakistani escalation” - India is not escalating here - India is the victim of a dastardly unprovoked attak on her soil.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 01 Mar 2019 05:37

Suraj wrote:Personally, I disagree with that. I would rather that GoI continue doing what it did - characterize this as a fight with JeM , not with TSP. Of course, TSP retaliated. Everyone knows that. But I believe it is a longer term bonus if GoI instead leaves the matter of the military skirmish to the military alone to speak about. TSP can have Dimran do the job, but on our end, the triforces chiefs are sufficient. NaMo can just imply that India will keep looking for ways to hit the JeM/LeT , and let those hyenas argue with PA about how the PA is supposed to protect them.

The problem is exactly thus. We don't seem to have a plan to have the services deal with TSP on a consistent basis and the first day's press conference reflected a terrific missed opportunity. The next day's MEA led one was even worse. Its been salvaged somewhat, on the 3rd day of getting all 3 forces guys there. But again, just a he-said, this/that, with no consistent articulation of what's next. If its by intent, I will be overjoyed. But if its not, I am really concerned.

Also, there is no real advantage to having those hyenas turn on the PA, they simply don't have the wherewithal. As far back as 1999, the PA was recorded braggng "we have them by the scruff of the neck". The only ones who have made a fight of it with the PA, are the Taliban, because all said & done, even though the PA funded & set them up to a degree, the Afghans were always hardy fighters & needed little in terms of institutional support.

It must & should be understood that the same way, we in India have the disciplined formal military units Rashtriya Rifles, the Terriers & the Paramils, staffed often with retd., or deputed for the purpose Army personnel, that's much the same with the informal terror groups Jaish this, or Hizbul that. They are PA in all but name is where the similarity lies.

Or does anyone really believe that a handful of malcontents could take the Daura e Khas training for a few days, and then face off against combat veterans in the NSG?

No, the same way the US sends its Green Berets to incite "liberation movements" and train 3rd party forces to fulfill its foreign policy objectives, the LeT, Jaish etc are nothing but PA extensions manned with PA veterans/ SSG, with serving ISI/PA personnel as intermediaries, liasons, and even for training, using Pakjabi youth as cannon fodder.

So, if for instance, in a war, the Indian Army takes a few blows in a tactical battle & its regimental units suffer heavy casualties, would they turn on the IA? Hardly, the discipline & hiererarchy is such that push comes to shove, the IA will dissolve those units, move them to another unit, and march on.

The same way, tomorrow, the PA can well dissolve these tanzeems, move key personnel to mujahid force (their tier 2 backup to the core PA) & being far more ruthless and amoral than the IA would ever be, "dispose" of any malcontents. The whisky swilling, sandwich favoring mullahs who are the nominal heads of these orgs, like that fat buffoon Masood Azhar, are nothing but figure head gasbags who serve a symbolic role. The operational guys will all be PA veterans and a sprinkling of Afghan veterans and they mostly do what the Army tells them, which is to serve in a non conventional, hybrid war role.

So, this entire business of "driving a wedge between PA and its terror orgs" is going to fail. We are basically fighting the PA & the PA derives strength from its iconic perception in Pak society, which is fairly bigoted and wants/needs its rulers to be the hegemons who are superior to the neighbor. They are willing to put up with all sorts of inconvenience for that.

When was the last time the PA was in serious trouble? 1971. Many revolts, public spitting at Pak soldiers.. much angst. We need to somehow recreate that. Merely targeting some Hizb or Lashkar won't create that perception until and unless we repeatedly show the PA in the worst light.

A) Domestically (Supporting Baloch, Sindh etc)

B ) By repeatedly humiliating them at the border etc and publicizing it.

In my view, there is enormous value in rupturing the social contract between the terrorists (the hyena) and the armed forces (p1mp) in TSP. Balakot proved that they can sit cocooned deep within TSP and we can and will still vaporize them. When their p1mp picks a fight with us in retaliation, the best option is to ignore the p1mp's escalation, keep a poker face, and say we totally support them in their quest to end terror, reach around and slap the hyena by their feet one more time , and say "see?" . It's best to encourage the hyenas to keep pushing the p1mp at us, and we simply blunt him with much superior forces, while continuing to look at the hyena with a look that say "doesn't matter how deep inside TSP you're hiding, we'll do this again. And again".

Please see above, the PIMP is the HYENA, they are one and the same. Sooner or later we have to face the fact we have to face the HYENA. This time in Balakot we were lucky in that we were able to bypass the defences and strike the HYENA. What will we do next time, when the LeT daura e khaas training camp is in the middle of a SSG camp and striking that means war?

Are we prepared for that? Do we have the SF trained to hunt TELs (a la' SAS/Delta in ODS) or have long loiter drones + dedicated squadrons for TEL hunting? Because if we go for war, we will have to take out the nukes. We cant shiver our way up every step of the ladder.

TSP doesn't want conventional war with us. The hyenas are their tool. Take on the hyenas directly and make them push the PA at us. The end result is that it turns the entire calculus of their approach on its head. The hyenas no longer have the safety, and the p1mp does NOT want a ground war they will lose; their kept puppy will be at their throats because they can't offer the protection racket anymore. We keep talking of the TSP end game. This is the end game.

This is a misreading IMO. TSP establishment i.e. PA knows that they survive only due to public perception of strength. They will initiate a war with us, hoping that we will allow them a face saving exit before it turns nuclear. What they don't care or understand, is that we too need our pound of flesh so to speak. If they keep bragging about their honor and dignity, whichever GOI is humiliated may be forced to war.

So, mark my words, they will just do two things:
- Colocate the hyenas amongst civilians (hit them, hit the civilians, collateral damage, what then? Hitting the military would be easier but that means war)
- When we start going to the Israelis for through the window PGMs & DRDO gives us a few, colocate the Hyenas within the main camp itself. Again, what do we do then?

Its not as if giving dossiers to the Americans or Brits or anyone does anything. I mean they kept OBL in Abbotabad. After that, to even pretend to talk to them is beyond idiocy on our part.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Mar 2019 05:38

https://twitter.com/ramana_brf/status/1 ... 56289?s=19

shyamal · Post by **shyamal** » 01 Mar 2019 05:38

Returning the POW without any assurances from India - this has not gone down well with the pak public.
Wednesday afternoon pak PM was obliquely referencing nuclear war. By thursday evening he announced release of the POW "for sake of peace" on the face of very belligerent noises from India who have publicly refused any negotiations/discussions for release of the POW.
Can you imagine the comedown?

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 01 Mar 2019 05:42

khan wrote:The real test is, if India matches Pakistan’s escalation, can it be justified? The answer is clearly yes. Another briefing by some Babu - after the Act is done will take care of the optics. For one example, notice how the mood shifted once that 20 minute tri-Service briefing was done.
This whole “international pressure” thing is built on sentiment that will shift as a fait-accompli - after the deed is done.

Then we should be doing so right now. Unfortunately, my reading of the Indian public isn't as sanguine. But let us see.

Again, forget about “optics” and focus on what is justifiable. The optics will take care of themselves as a fait accompli.

Optics, unfortunately, define what is justifiable given we ended up playing per the optics game. "Nonmilitary target" etc. I wish we forgot about optics. This too clever by half bureaucratese has not given us any advantage. A simple and forthright we attacked these guys. You didnt. If you attack us in their stead, we will hit back may have been much better. Because they retaliated anyhow. They cared nothing for our tricky semantics and nor does the world care. Who wins, wins.

Yes, but the temperature can be raised gradually. Next time, the IAF can take out something closer to town and then even closer until finally they get to Madrassa’s in the middle of Karachi.

When is next time? What guarantee is there that the Govt in power next time, will even contemplate this. 2008 for instance. Or whats just happened in the Maoist heartland.

Yes, and I am sure next time, the entire CAP force will be much more aggressive, and within minutes of them going back into Pakistani air-space, wolf-packs will he launched to take them down. I don’t think this mistake will be repeated.

So you agree this was a mistake, and second, again we are in crystal ball territory, we don't know when is a next time.

Yes, and of all people, Prime Minister Modi knows this, which is why - I hope he follows his instincts and matches Pakistan’s escalation.
*Note my careful use of the term “matches Pakistani escalation” - India is not escalating here - India is the victim of a dastardly unprovoked attak on her soil.

My entire concern is we have PM Modi today. 5 months from now, the fickle Indian junta who falls over themselves exchanging gleeful WA forwards on day1, and day 3 are sitting sullen over the events of that day, may not even have this man back as the PM, or hobble him with all sorts of asinine coalition rubbish. We had the opportunity when the PAF struck back, to really really hurt them. And then offer a de-escalation. On our terms. We let that slide.

We still have time and I believe, come what may, we should strike when the iron is hot. Darn the opposition. Darn optics. Darn "reasonableness" and take the chance and land some hurt on the PA that they don't think of terror for at least the next few years. That may end up getting Modi back too, and that will be icing on the cake, because he can drive policy consistency.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 01 Mar 2019 05:52

shyamal wrote:Returning the POW without any assurances from India - this has not gone down well with the pak public.
Wednesday afternoon pak PM was obliquely referencing nuclear war. By thursday evening he announced release of the POW "for sake of peace" on the face of very belligerent noises from India who have publicly refused any negotiations/discussions for release of the POW.
Can you imagine the comedown?

If social media is any indicator, or their TV channels, their public is cock a hoop with the fact they had a pilot to return and Khan's magnanimity in handing him over. Unfortunately all our nuance in our discussions does not matter.
When will we start thinking as they (the Pakis) do, and hence tailor our response to give them a solid kick accordingly?
We still have a chance. The F-16, hammer that story home. In every channel, in every way. Push it through.
Activate our HUMINT assets in Pak and get those details out and spread them around to humiliate the PAF.

But our guys just don't seem to get IW 101 or what gets the Pak public off. This is a public that's 100% fine with LeT/JeM coming over and killing us as long as they "win" and the Pak public is not inconvenienced. And we put out statements saying "we are not fighting you or the PA, we are fighting LeT". When all are basically one & the same!

Kicking the PAF's public image, mocking the PAs image, humiliating the LeT etc.

This is what will make te Pak public support us in frustration that their heroes are not ghazis but more like keystone kops.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 01 Mar 2019 06:03

ramana wrote:Give time and don't go by press statements.

Which is my basic point. If all this was happening in Yr 2 of Modi sarkar, I'd agree. But no, in a couple of months he is up for polls. And the cricket mad Indian public only wants "sixers" and we have no guarantee he'll be back and even if so, with the kind of overwhelming mandate he enjoys today.
Of late, I am beginning to realize what a wide ecosystem of turn the other cheek types infest the Indian establishment. Just check Rajiv Sethis article in the other fora. Many many like this. This really is the one chance for a nationalist govt to make a difference.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 01 Mar 2019 06:04

The Reuters report also confirms JeM presence in Balakot where India's non-military pre-emptive strike took place. Confirmation of dropped bombs. Also says JeM runs a seminary in the area whose signboard was removed today access to it blocked by #PakArmy soldiers. May be someone can ask @OfficialDGISPR to explain why? (The Reuter's report is supposed to show Paki version that no one can see dead bodies so not attack took place

)

Pakistani village confirms that terrorists were bombed?

JABA, Pakistan (Reuters) - The only confirmed victim of India’s air strike against Pakistan is still unsure why he was shaken awake in the early hours of Tuesday by an explosion that rocked his mud brick house and left him with a cut above his right eye.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 01 Mar 2019 06:11

Karan M wrote:Please see above, the PIMP is the HYENA, they are one and the same. Sooner or later we have to face the fact we have to face the HYENA. This time in Balakot we were lucky in that we were able to bypass the defences and strike the HYENA. What will we do next time, when the LeT daura e khaas training camp is in the middle of a SSG camp and striking that means war?

I'm aware that they're functionally the same. However they are regulars and irregulars within the same entity. The latter offers the former plausible deniability. Drive them against each other or together, the dynamic is still theirs to create.

The suggestion 'how to we reach them next time' is an interesting one. It supposes that there's only one template to do this. That template (long range strike) didn't exist until 3 days ago. There's nothing to suggest there aren't more templates for the future, and it is our job to be unpredictable in this regard.

"Teach them a lesson" is a sufficiently nebulous idea that I see nothing revealed by that approach. We're dealing with the only country in the world stupid enough to still maintain an irredentist claim on another, despite having lost half its territory and population and beggared itself in the process, within 3 generations. There are few avenues for lessons to be learned .

There are no quick fixes here, either by conventional war or my explained approach. I'm not saying it's better. But I *am* saying that it is what GoI is doing now, and I support it. GoI has forever said it will take on the terrorists. Well it's never dropped - how much, 5000kgs ? - of bombs on them before.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 01 Mar 2019 06:14

From @AZEnglish item:

Local 1: "Madrassa there, thats a training camp for mujahideen"

Local 2: "Everyone here knows there is a Jaish camp there, at the madrassa. Its an active training centre"

There's evidence to suggest the seminary was an active recruitment centre, if not training site, for JeM.

(From the site of the Indian airstrikes) ... no casualties visible, with four craters in a forest and a field. But an air of mystery surrounds a nearby Jaish e Muhammad madrassa.

Lot of rona-dhona and quoting villagers and what not but it's a shame that they did not elaborate exactly why 'Al Jazeera was unable to visit the site of the seminary ..

sudhan · Post by **sudhan** » 01 Mar 2019 06:15

One way to push them to escalate blindly would be pull their langots in public by releasing proof of all the damage our mirages did. I agree with the fellow posters who suggest that IAF hit more than a resort full of their disposable jihadis

Vivasvat · Post by **Vivasvat** » 01 Mar 2019 06:20

Amber G. wrote:The Reuters report also confirms JeM presence in Balakot where India's non-military pre-emptive strike took place. Confirmation of dropped bombs. Also says JeM runs a seminary in the area whose signboard was removed today access to it blocked by #PakArmy soldiers. May be someone can ask @OfficialDGISPR to explain why? (The Reuter's report is supposed to show Paki version that no one can see dead bodies so not attack took place )

Pakistani village confirms that terrorists were bombed?

The hole in the side of the house and other damage shown is outside the targeted area which was cordoned off by the naPak military and the interview is with villagers who were not allowed in that zone. NaPak uniformed jihadis can be seen guarding the area which the villagers say they are not allowed in.

Also, note that the local hospital was directed to reserve 60 beds immediately.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 01 Mar 2019 06:24

Suraj wrote:I'm aware that they're functionally the same. However they are regulars and irregulars within the same entity. The latter offers the former plausible deniability. Drive them against each other or together, the dynamic is still theirs to create.

The suggestion 'how to we reach them next time' is an interesting one. It supposes that there's only one template to do this. That template (long range strike) didn't exist until 3 days ago. There's nothing to suggest there aren't more templates for the future, and it is our job to be unpredictable in this regard.

My point is that they are sufficiently agile that they have already implemented the next time. For instance, this from a couple of days back:

This was my point 1 - colocation w/civilians. This is already happening.

"Teach them a lesson" is a sufficiently nebulous idea that I see nothing revealed by that approach. We're dealing with the only country in the world stupid enough to still maintain an irredentist claim on another, despite having lost half its territory and population and beggared itself in the process, within 3 generations. There are few avenues for lessons to be learned .

"Teach them a lesson" is a strategy in that it has to be "teach them a lesson which is visible". In Kargil, we taught them a lesson. Gave each other high-fives, wrote poems on martyrs, a few rtd Generals wrote books on complex approaches to mountain warfare.. that was it. Pakistan creates a mythos around the warrior race its PA supposedly is. From inviting Fricker to Alan Warnes.. their PR machine is always in overdrive.
It would cost us a tenth of the price of a SPICE 2000 to get the word out via suitably mercenary channels about the game changing Balakot strikes and rubbishing the PAF... my big issue is our ossified establishment which Modi has inherited just doesn't get this.
This is what will start causing a divide between the rulers (PA/PAF/PN) and the ruled..

An iron fist (at the border and elsewhere) and constant publicity of how badly they get hammered (and take it).

There are no quick fixes here, either by conventional war or my explained approach. I'm not saying it's better. But I *am* saying that it is what GoI is doing now, and I support it. GoI has forever said it will take on the terrorists. Well it's never dropped - how much, 5000kgs ? - of bombs on them before.

Yes I get your point, we haven't gone in and hit them as hard as we did, but we should be talking it up as well is my point.

Even when we have dropped heavy ordinance on them before as at Kargil, at Muntho Dhalo, at that Point something post Kargil, and we just keep quiet about it or let it just slip away into some annal someplace.

This entire PR stuff was a missed opportunity IMHO. All I can hope is Modi is playing some 5th level chess..

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 01 Mar 2019 06:27

Sheikh Rasheed openly revealed in Pak parliament that the above seminary was blown to bits.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvtogoBLbxk

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 01 Mar 2019 06:31

Better quality
https://youtu.be/WhoNilaps8Q?t=400

..main madrassa hain, woh na hone ke barabar hain"... basically 14 IAF aircraft came in, and that madrassa is now equivalent to one that doesn't exist (complicated way of saying got blasted to bits).

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 01 Mar 2019 06:36

There is no doubt that a TFTA F-solah was toast to a SDRE Mig-21

I wont link it here, but you can search for it.

TFTA Baghdad bob (henceforth the Isloo idiot) said on twitter that 2 aircrafts were shot down, 3 pilots ejected, one was captured and two were at large. Later Isloo idiot said in press conference (yours truly watched it live) that 2 pilots were arrested, one was hospitalized and the other was being interrogated.

SDREs always said that they saw 2 parachutes. In my mind there are only two possibilities:

1. Mig-21 shot down a dual-seat F16
1a. SDREs saw Wg Cmdr Abhinandan + 1 TFTA parachute out. The other poor TFTA sod was cooked inside the plane.
OR
1b. SDREs saw the 2 TFTAs bail out from the F16. They did not see Wg Cmdr Abhinandan parachute out

2. Mig-21 shot down a single seat F16
2a. SDREs saw Wg Cmdr Abhinandan + 1 TFTA parachute out. Since Wg Cmdr Abhinandan was the one being interrogated, the other sod is in the hospital now.

Nambi says one sod got his 72. So there are only two possiblities

1. It was a two seater: One fella got cooked inside F-solah. The one parachuted out, was injured during ejection or was beaten black and blue by a mob and taken to hospital. Nambi was talking about the TFTA who got cooked.

2. It was a single seater: One fella parachuted out, beaten black and blue by the mob, taken to the hospital and died. Nambi was talking about the one in the hospital.

I am taking bets on whether it was a two seater or a single seater.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 01 Mar 2019 06:38

^^karan i think, we havent heard the last in balakot saga, information will be disseminated at the right time. based on past, actually evidence follows the jhappad. The amount of infromation relaeased till now points that only. Let's hope we havent heard the last. Let's just hope this was the pilot only

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 01 Mar 2019 06:41

This is the eye witness account from some old lunatic who saw 3 parachutes. Ignore his braggadacio.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... 2zTZWvZwwE

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 01 Mar 2019 06:45

Somebody who can understand Urdu better than I can get the gist of what he is saying beyond 3 parachutes. he also mentions what happens to the pilots.

Rishi_Tri · Post by **Rishi_Tri** » 01 Mar 2019 06:48

If posters think, this is over! Well, mauzi medieval tactic:

Be on a peace mission and sink dagger from behind. So, just wait for that Dagger - Chura in your back. Hopefully we are ready to strike back with bigger ferocity. As Modi said, this was only a Pilot Project.

On people being fickle in their support and many not being conversant with IW 101 - Well many are fickle and many do fall to IW 101. But at the same time, majority are not fickle and definitely don't fall to IW 101. They know that social media is poop dump, well known intellectuals / twitter handles are colonial/red excrement and but for few TV channels, all else are terror proxies.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 01 Mar 2019 06:49

I think at 1:19 that idiot Pakistani is admitting they beat up a wounded pilot.

This is the motherlode of information regarding the entire 3 pilot story.

Anujan, weren't you conversant with Urdu?

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 01 Mar 2019 06:50

Karan M wrote:My point is that they are sufficiently agile that they have already implemented the next time. For instance, this from a couple of days back:

There's nothing about their actions that's different from border shelling that's going on longer than this forum has been around. It's not a new template. It's the standard approach, which is that they will ALWAYS retaliate with their formal military using shelling or intrusions.

GoI should continue to essentially avoid responding to or dealing with formal TSP channels. The formal TSP state, is simply an impediment to hurting their informal terrorist apparatus. I'd much rather GoI continue to do what it is doing now, which is to ignore their official channels yelling "hey! talk to me! I'm looking at YOU!", and continue to find ways to sneak around and hit the terrorist camps directly. Surgical strike ? Long range DPSA missions ? Targted assassinations ? All are fine.

Karan M wrote:Even when we have dropped heavy ordinance on them before as at Kargil, at Muntho Dhalo, at that Point something post Kargil, and we just keep quiet about it or let it just slip away into some annal someplace.

IMHO there's absolutely no relationship between our actions in Kargil and Operation Balakot. Kargil and Muntho Dhalo are Indian territory and the use of state power to clear intruders is completely above board.

The use of enormous armed forces to clandestinely penetrate another nation's territory and neutralize a huge terrorist camp ? That is a completely different paradigm. The only similar actions are the surgical strikes into TSP and Myanmar - both of which are also actions of this government, indicating a continued willingness to take up this approach.

The reason why I support this approach is that it keeps the right to their land and their sky, not ours. They will shell, intrude or whatever, and the armed forces' job is to keep them at bay, while we continue to treat their armed forces as someone to simply get around periodically.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 01 Mar 2019 06:53

Karan M wrote:Sheikh Rasheed openly revealed in Pak parliament that the above seminary was blown to bits.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvtogoBLbxk

I don't think he actually said that, he said that there might have been a Madrassa there but 'na hone ki barabar hai' in the sense that it was barely even anything there. If you look at the full speech and the context of what he said, he was claiming that the Paki JF17 was very advanced, on part with the F16 and more advanced than the Chinese planes 'due to in flight refuelling' and that the Indian planes had tried to penetrate their airspace but ran away due to the PAF.

The only people giving this video credence were Times Now I think, who misread the meaning of what he were saying and were replaying it as breaking news

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 01 Mar 2019 06:56

Have to agree with Karan here, GOI needs to control the narrative via better marketing. At the verry least TSP abduls need to start doubting the codswallop being fed to them. This will result in a faster break up of TSP

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 01 Mar 2019 06:58

Suraj wrote:There's nothing about their actions that's different from border shelling that's going on longer than this forum has been around. It's not a new template. It's the standard approach, which is that they will ALWAYS retaliate with their formal military using shelling or intrusions.

What I meant was not how they attack (shelling, sniping etc), but the fact they will more and more bring in human shields and other ways that prevent us from retaliation.

GoI should continue to essentially avoid responding to or dealing with formal TSP channels. The formal TSP state, is simply an impediment to hurting their informal terrorist apparatus. I'd much rather GoI continue to do what it is doing now, which is to ignore their official channels yelling "hey! talk to me! I'm looking at YOU!", and continue to find ways to sneak around and hit the terrorist camps directly. Surgical strike ? Long range DPSA missions ? Targted assassinations ? All are fine.

Problem is this is not doable in the long run or even otherwise. Its just a luck of the draw that Balakot was isolated etc. Now the camps will move to within towns, within military bases, within hard to target w/o collateral damage. There is simply not going to be a way to sneak around and hit without incurring heavy casualties in turn.
We should just accept the fact we are fighting the PA, prep for it, and start killing them more efficiently, and own the entire escalation ladder, while prepping for the worst case scenario, ie nuke conflict by mitigating it (remove as many launch platforms as possible + provide maximal BMD coverage).

IMHO there's absolutely no relationship between our actions in Kargil and Operation Balakot. Kargil and Muntho Dhalo are Indian territory and the use of state power to clear intruders is completely above board.

The point I am making is about propaganda. Not whether the fights are equivalent or not in the strategic, or tactical sense. Whenever we fight with the Pakistanis, whether small, big, border, this strke, we need to ensure our account carries the day and the Pakistanis come out looking second best, and thoroughly beaten.

Unfortunately, in this aspect we let them dominate the storyline which is what keeps the cult of the PA alive.