Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 01 Mar 2019 07:02

Bart S wrote:I don't think he actually said that, he said that there might have been a Madrassa there but 'na hone ki barabar hai' in the sense that it was barely even anything there.


He mentions that the struck the madrassa and after that "na hone ke barabar tha", which could mean that it was taken out of commission.

Now correlate that with AmberGs post above is my point..

If you look at the full speech and the context of what he said, he was claiming that the Paki JF17 was very advanced, on part with the F16 and more advanced than the Chinese planes 'due to in flight refuelling' and that the Indian planes had tried to penetrate their airspace but ran away due to the PAF. The only people giving this video credence were Times Now I think, who misread the meaning of what he were saying and were replaying it as breaking news


That part is all the usual bragging stuff.. but the video may well bear a watch even so if it shows he is doing an admission.. can you translate that entire section before and after that bit.
Problem is we arent going to get a single Pak video which makes 100 percent sense.. its akin to wading through a pile of dung to look for a missing ring.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Suraj » 01 Mar 2019 07:03

Karan M wrote:Problem is this is not doable in the long run or even otherwise. Its just a luck of the draw that Balakot was isolated etc. Now the camps will move to within towns, within military bases, within hard to target w/o collateral damage. There is simply not going to be a way to sneak around and hit without incurring heavy casualties in turn.

I disagree with this, not because I think I know better or that you don't, but because GoI itself has demonstrated repeated resourcefulness at coming up with new strategies that no government before it has had the cojones to use.

Will it succeed long term ? I don't know. Israel, despite enormously resourceful means to hit back, continues to struggle with an endless cycle of violence still. Yet, I'd rather support this approach than any other.
Karan M wrote:The point I am making is about propaganda.

I don't think it's possible to have any sort of collective satisfaction in this matter; one man's propaganda is another propah g*andu. It's far too subjective a matter to waste time and effort convincing one another of :)

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 01 Mar 2019 07:04

Cain Marko wrote:Have to agree with Karan here, GOI needs to control the narrative via better marketing. At the verry least TSP abduls need to start doubting the codswallop being fed to them. This will result in a faster break up of TSP


Yeah, that's all I am saying. Control the message. And also prep for the whole game, one way or the other we are going to go to war with TSP. Start prepping for the whole fight today.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby khan » 01 Mar 2019 07:05

sudhan wrote:One way to push them to escalate blindly would be pull their langots in public by releasing proof of all the damage our mirages did. I agree with the fellow posters who suggest that IAF hit more than a resort full of their disposable jihadis

Or wait a week, if Pakistan takes no action on the dossiers, then do another terrorist strike.

Or on Saturday morning, after wing commander is back take out an F-16 base.

---

Remain civil.

Thanks
KM

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 01 Mar 2019 07:15

Suraj wrote:I disagree with this, not because I think I know better or that you don't, but because GoI itself has demonstrated repeated resourcefulness at coming up with new strategies that no government before it has had the cojones to use.


Problem is many of these strategies backfire spectacularly over the long term, because they aren't tied to one fundamental Qn.. what do we want TSP to be or what should we do to TSP, is it just temporary buy your peace for now...was just reading a book the other day from an IA infantry commander.. the much vaunted ceasefire implemented by the UPA at the LOC, gave moral ascendancy back to the terrorists/infiltrators and removed a key weapon in our arsenal, we could no longer throw heavy firepower at infiltrators..now this Govt has let that slide and reintroduced a robust response at the LOC, tomorrow, who knows. This lack of institutional consistency is a very big challenge. Maj Gen Bakshi keeps complaining that from his time to the lost "UPA years", there was almost a complete sea change in the manner in which Pak drove the entire agenda.. Mumbai train attacks, 26/11, the other bomb blasts.. we were just clueless.
This Govt's good work may all end up in the dustbin if a new bunch arrive with self-seeking pacifism, and bureaucrats fall over themselves to endear themselves to their new masters.

Will it succeed long term ? I don't know. Israel, despite enormously resourceful means to hit back, continues to struggle with an endless cycle of violence still. Yet, I'd rather support this approach than any other.


Israel, is no longer facing an existential threat & has the backing of the US. We are simply too blase about the whole challenge. Our entire existence post 86 or thereabouts has remained around taking the hits & not hitting back (with counter attacks in Karachi via the MQM being a rare exception). Every year that passes, the threats don't go down. With a Pakistan that is extremely frustrated, and provokes a fight with its Corpse Commanders happily believing that effete Hindus will back down & hence they need not worry about an exit strategy.. the risk is huge.
Israel is just facing a manpower swarm & none of its neighbours are nuke armed (yet), though KSA supposedly has a few loaned from Pak.. but in our case, what are we going to do when faced with the fight to end all fights? We are woefully underprepped for that. We either need to drop the entire moral high road angle and take the obvious path (Baloch/Sindh/internal dissatisfaction aspect) whilst pretending to be talk-talk (in PVNRs words, talk-talk, hit-hit) Or prep for a conventional conflict at a scale, which we are so far not prepped for, to the degree necessary.

I don't think it's possible to have any sort of collective satisfaction in this matter; one man's propaganda is another propah g*andu. It's far too subjective a matter to waste time and effort convincing one another of :)


My point is not that its propah g*andu or not.. it very well might be. But its what makes the Pak masses twitch, jump, and respond to. I have long learnt one thing..we are fundamentally wired differently in how we process information. The Indian brain is trained by circumstance, culture etc to adhere to some satyemeva jayate sort of thing. The "other side" believes in "maula jatt" & has fallen for it hook line and sinker. You want them to dance, play their music.

If cartoon network works on them vs some fractal analysis, use cartoon network & make them dance to your tune.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby V_Raman » 01 Mar 2019 07:22

IMO NaMO will wait for Masood Azhar UNSC resolution to its conclusion. If it gets vetoed by China, there will be more fireworks.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby banrjeer » 01 Mar 2019 07:23

Mostly a lurker but here are my two cents:

There are bigger fish to fry than f-16s. No need to risk POWs at such at this early stage, it delays and detracts.
Hoping the IAF re-calibrates after this incident.

Unkil is able to enforce sanctions across the world in N Korea and Iran. A tinpot regime like Venezuela is doing it in their country. Even Somali pirates do their bit. Why are we so inhibited. MFN status to Pakistan ? no one in the world gets it.

Let Modi(not Mayavati or Pappu!) work on a non overt trade embargo intermittent naval blockades at least in their backyard like is already happening in Paki airspace.

We have tremendous cards .. we make fat payments to both the Saudis/gulf and Iran for fuel. The US wont like us to buy more from Iran nor would the Saudis. They are not in a position to dictate. We are inflicted with a thousand cuts but we also write billions of paychecks. .We got to make those count.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby ArjunPandit » 01 Mar 2019 07:30

notice that afghanistan has 4 flights over it right now bakis nil. These kind of stand offs are goin got beggar them..oh i forgot they're already. we stopped cricket there. Strikes like this few more times. It will automatically become a no go zone with airlines not risking them and baki airlines sector bleeding money.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Thakur_B » 01 Mar 2019 07:30

I believe the tempo for further escalation is going down. The retaliation for trying to target our military installation should be swift and absolute. Repulsion of attack being sufficient is status quoist thinking. The establishment has been lethargic in response and also in displaying resolute action. The violence of our action should be such that at any point a status quo is instated, it is at a much higher set point than the one we began with. It took 7 hours to acknowledge downed fighter and intended attack on military installations. In an ideal world this should be the time taken by the establishment to initiate retaliation.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Rishi_Tri » 01 Mar 2019 07:33

Karan M wrote:This is the eye witness account from some old lunatic who saw 3 parachutes. Ignore his braggadacio.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... 2zTZWvZwwE


Punjabi Ordoo

Bearded guy - Aman Yaseen - claims to have spotted / caught the pilot first. He was at his home while there was heavy shelling being done. He saw three chutes drop. Two went away and they caught the third in wooded area, controlled him and handed over to army. Caught pilot had pistol and they beat him up. He also got bloodied in the process. Per him, caught pilot was Sikh. Ends with the video guy saying, this is bravado of India falling flat. Name of the place ... Kotla something.. could not figure out more..

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 01 Mar 2019 07:35

Thakur_B wrote:I believe the tempo for further escalation is going down. The retaliation for trying to target our military installation should be swift and absolute. Repulsion of attack being sufficient is status quoist thinking. The establishment has been lethargic in response and also in displaying resolute action. The violence of our action should be such that at any point a status quo is instated, it is at a much higher set point than the one we began with. It took 7 hours to acknowledge downed fighter and intended attack on military installations. In an ideal world this should be the time taken by the establishment to initiate retaliation.


My point exactly & my concerns as well. We could have retaliated hard & then offered a ceasefire. It was the oppty of a lifetime.

Anyhow, what's done is done. My question remains, what's next.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 01 Mar 2019 07:37

Rishi_Tri wrote:
Karan M wrote:This is the eye witness account from some old lunatic who saw 3 parachutes. Ignore his braggadacio.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... 2zTZWvZwwE


Punjabi Ordoo

Bearded guy - Aman Yaseen - claims to have spotted / caught the pilot first. He was at his home while there was heavy shelling being done. He saw three chutes drop. Two went away and they caught the third in wooded area, controlled him and handed over to army. Caught pilot had pistol and they beat him up. He also got bloodied in the process. Per him, caught pilot was Sikh. Ends with the video guy saying, this is bravado of India falling flat. Name of the place ... Kotla something.. could not figure out more..


Thanks Rishi!

The man they ended up in a fistfight with was clearly WingCo Abhinandan.. they took his facial hair to mean he was Sikh.

So they saw 2 more chutes drop. Yep. F-16x 2 seater it is.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby TKiran » 01 Mar 2019 07:40

In my opinion, the triservices meeting yesterday should have been postponed yesterday, once ImdDim announced that our pow would be released, till our pow was released. Suraj san is right that we should not rush but buy-in a lot of time, before the announcement or press release. It's a sign of maturity rather than bumbastic "we are living in different times, instant news, breaking news" etc.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby hanumadu » 01 Mar 2019 07:45

Our escalation will be gradual, spread over many years. For Uri, we did a ground strike. For Pulwama, we did an air strike. With the pukes returning Abhinandan, whatever chance of escalation is there is pretty much gone. For whatever reasons, that's the approach Modi seems to have decided upon.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 01 Mar 2019 07:45

Lets focus on what we can do.

Balakot - keep an eye open for any twitter, social media post talking about it. Pakis love to yackety yack. Stuff will be out.
F-16 ditto. Keep an eye out on Paki fora etc if you guys ever manage to wade through those cesspools.

If you do, take screenshots, download vids. We need to download all the evidence regarding the F-16 shootdown and collect all this stuff in one place.. even a bunch of blogspot articles will do. Just document, document, Gdrive it.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby arshyam » 01 Mar 2019 07:45

ramana wrote:
suryag wrote:Folks - what is in a fighter pilot's survival kit ? dagger, pistol, water, biscuits, radio set, GPS ? Why would the wingco be wondering where he is ?



There are pictures of the kit list on Twitter.

One such picture was posted on the other thread that's since been locked. Should show up in a search for ".jpg".

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby ramana » 01 Mar 2019 07:53

KaranM, I am curious about the Su 30 MKIs and M2ks that were part of the interception mission. We have not heard what were they doing? Looks like only the 2 Mig-21 Bisons got the attention due to the shoot down.

Do we have a good map of the area with out the CGI animations of India Today?

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Ganesh_S » 01 Mar 2019 07:57

One major drawback of our tri service chief press meet is that it gives pakistan ample room to delay the return of our pilot. While the fear was prevalent yesterday not only among the Pak military but also the aam abduls in Pakistan will begin to subside now.
Will not be surprised if the handover gets postponed. But sure it will happen sooner or later. Its just my opinion that the tri service chief press meet has given the impression of the stick being kept aside.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 01 Mar 2019 07:59

Why is Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman being returned at the Wagah border? The Pakis will play this up with lots of hooting and hollering at the border. He should be handed over to the International Red Cross as per Geneva Conventions and from their brought to India.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Ganesh_S » 01 Mar 2019 08:01

Room will be created for Pakistani piddis in india to enter negotiations and an attempt to humiliate the government of the day. Though this may have repercussions.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 01 Mar 2019 08:04

V_Raman wrote:IMO NaMO will wait for Masood Azhar UNSC resolution to its conclusion. If it gets vetoed by China, there will be more fireworks.


Bingo. That is what will happen. If it doesn't come to a head at UNSC, then TSP will get one more warning and Chinni, Unkil, Aunty and Frogistanis will be told that military option may be exercised.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 01 Mar 2019 08:07

Let's see if he comes across in his uniform. If not, then do like the SoKos did some years back when they crossed from NoKo - throw the presents/bouquets back at the border, and then strip down nanga and throw their clothes over the border followed by spitting.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Kashi » 01 Mar 2019 08:09

Let us see how GoI handles the return. There are indeed chances of this becoming a spectacle. Captain wants to be present there himself when Wg Cmdr walk across. All political posturing plans are in place.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Ganesh_S » 01 Mar 2019 08:12

Mort Walker wrote:Let's see if he comes across in his uniform. If not, then do like the SoKos did some years back when they crossed from NoKo - throw the presents/bouquets back at the border, and then strip down nanga and throw their clothes over the border followed by spitting.


That wouldn't be sane considering there will be future incursions across the loc. A better approach would be to deny a ceremonial hand over.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 01 Mar 2019 08:14

Kashi wrote:Let us see how GoI handles the return. There are indeed chances of this becoming a spectacle. Captain wants to be present there himself when Wg Cmdr walk across. All political posturing plans are in place.


The optics are terrible.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 01 Mar 2019 08:15

Good points Ramana will dig & update.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 01 Mar 2019 08:16

Mort Walker wrote:
V_Raman wrote:IMO NaMO will wait for Masood Azhar UNSC resolution to its conclusion. If it gets vetoed by China, there will be more fireworks.


Bingo. That is what will happen. If it doesn't come to a head at UNSC, then TSP will get one more warning and Chinni, Unkil, Aunty and Frogistanis will be told that military option may be exercised.


If this happens and that rotten swine is targeted by any action, I'll buy you a tanker of beer whenever we ever meet!

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 01 Mar 2019 08:18

I dont know why the wagah circus has been allowed to develop over the years. there is a huge cricket style stadium there!
I know punjabis love festivals and spectacles but cant they get entertained with something else? like netflix :D

this is like syria and the isis holding a border gate ceremony every evening. panders to the equal-equal they are like us only brigade.

GOI needs to shut down the circus. for good.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby krishna_krishna » 01 Mar 2019 08:18

my pranam's oh yak header to identify the correct aircraft very first, I lost for two seater into bigger plane. Having said that I believe our response was very much planned and it was to break the status quo (or as some say paradigm shift) to shift balance of power in a way to demonstrate there is space and India enjoys overwhelming superiority to control the narrative and escalation ladder to punish Pakistan.

With new standards established cost would have been much higher for Pakistan, unless India responds again before this whole event reaches its end, would identify the dynamics of the region. If we do not respond we accept that Pakistan has put up deterrence (or have enough equal equal) to stop India from doing anything serious and we are back to 1000 cuts.

They claim that we have enough will and material to hit you militarily (hard e momin mentality H&D) we need to alter this forever or else all the brave sacrifices by our military, paramilitary and Air Force personnel would go to waste. If we accept mediation too that also means that Pakistan would game that even India responds once after few days, Indians do not have will to (baniyas) fight and they pack. This also demonstrates to China, usa etc that they have the might to stop India this has bigger ramifications. I pray that government continues the campaign till we get upper hand and then rub it in with dialogue.

Silver lining in this we will not see any F solah ever in service with IAF (or F21).
Last edited by krishna_krishna on 01 Mar 2019 08:32, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 01 Mar 2019 08:19

Mort Walker wrote:
Kashi wrote:Let us see how GoI handles the return. There are indeed chances of this becoming a spectacle. Captain wants to be present there himself when Wg Cmdr walk across. All political posturing plans are in place.


The optics are terrible.


Not necessarily, our hero returns from capture. It will be played up like crazy on all TV channels and people will lap it up.. the WingCo himself may get fed up of the non-stop coverage.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Kakkaji » 01 Mar 2019 08:20

Sheikh Rasheed said “there is a Madarssa there but it is insignificant”. He says the IAF strike only destroyed some trees

Why are we expecting Pakistanis to admit any losses on their side? It will not happen
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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 01 Mar 2019 08:22

for a camp like that, in isolated place, with some access control, I dont think local people will have a full picture who came and went to the resort and occupancy levels. there is always a madrassa where these people gather, its a good official nameplate thats all.

this is not a RAF spitfire base where people will cycle down to village pub for a couple of pints daily.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Ganesh_S » 01 Mar 2019 08:23

My chaiwala says that one j f 17 has been shot down during balakot attack's.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Ganesh_S » 01 Mar 2019 08:25

This was not disclosed to avoid a direct confrontation with PAF.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 01 Mar 2019 08:25

I also hope the response by the entire TSP establishment has also been taken into account & their pyschological profiles built up.

In contrast to his media image as a dunce (thank you Reham Bibi, I can never ever look at a cigar case the same way ever again), Imran Khan comes across as a very shrewd, slimy political operator. Not a dumb puppet. He ensured a retaliation or definitely pushed for one, for his domestic optics. Thereafter, promptly signaled peace (albeit with GHQ approval) with very interesting phrasing in his peace talks BS.. all about "I cant control what happens next". Basically wiping his hands off of the mess & preventing a Nawaz from happening to him, post Kargil. This guy for all his philandering, his playboy image is a Grade-A lalu class slimy politician. Bears watching.

Ghafoor is a dogsbody fighting for image and recognition , judging by his body language etc. His over the top aggression in the briefing was was all because he knew a retaliation was underway, and he spelt it out. In short, a loudmouth who can't keep things really secret.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby manjgu » 01 Mar 2019 08:25

1) Pakistan is trying to make virtue out of a necessity. 2) I dont know how significant is Modi stmt about ' pilot project' more to follow. ? 3) GOI PR has been a bit poor. Modi ji should say on TV ...Wgco has come without any conditions..this is not a peace move but a necessity. We need to see action on terrorists, MA, DA etc ... within 4 days ELSE .... and keep fully mobilised.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Aditya_V » 01 Mar 2019 08:26

Few Questions right now

1. Has the Wing Commander Abhinandan crossed the Wagah Border
2. What was the damage at Rajouri, hope the news of no causualties confirmed
3. Mi17 what was the cause of crash
4. Damage assessement at Balakot, some Satellite and LGB hitting pics
5. Some accurate info and confirmation of which particular PAF aircraft shot down, hopefully some gun camera image from the other MIg 21 Bision.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 01 Mar 2019 08:27

Kakkaji wrote:Sheikh Rasheed said “there is a Madarssa there but it is insignificant”. He says the IAF strike only destroyed some trees

Why are we expecting Pakistanis to admit any losses on their side? It will not happen


There is history to this.

Paki politicians are like dogs who chafe at their masters collars. So they embarass their masters by revealing information.

One such politician, revealed that TSP had lost 2 Erieyes in a terror attack and a 3rd was damaged.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby A_Gupta » 01 Mar 2019 08:34

Aditya_V wrote:Few Questions right now
5. Some accurate info and confirmation of which particular PAF aircraft shot down, hopefully some gun camera image from the other MIg 21 Bision.


https://theprint.in/defence/pakistan-ex ... ge/199482/

The following is supposed to be a photograph released by Pakistan's ISPR:
The ISPR image of the debris nails the suspicion that a PAF F-16 had indeed been downed.

One of the pictures showed the outer casing of an engine. A closer analysis revealed that it was not a part of the MiG-21 Bison but that of the F-16.


Image

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Sid » 01 Mar 2019 08:37

Ganesh_S wrote:My chaiwala says that one j f 17 has been shot down during balakot attack's.


Not chai wala, but I saw several comments where people mentioned 1 or 2 JF-17s were capped during first strike. There is no evidence to that.

Plus after our Wng Cmdr was captured, IAF could have simply released this information as we were way past being gentlemen.


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