Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

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Rishi_Tri
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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Rishi_Tri » 04 Mar 2019 09:09

vimal wrote:
Singha wrote:
Superb. Indicates pain is being felt mixed with fear of whats coming next


I read the article and it is not as lopsided as you make it sound. It raises some very valid points regarding vintage military equipment and poor budgetary allocation for defense. Also, the point about India being the logical counter to China is not lost on anyone.

Prescient - India seems to be the only military in world with vintage military equipment. Have you heard of B52s that have been flying for 60 years now?

Lets be honest, Mig-21 is a 1960s era plane that is still flying and should've been to be phased out but there is no replacement in sight. A lot of these issues have been discussed on this forum and we all agree that modernization has suffered due to lack of political will and bureaucracy.

Brilliant - Does Tejas ring a bell? Pretty sure Mk1, Mk2 stand for Amby models.

Also, Mig-21 being shot down and pilot captured is a fact. F-16 being shot down is unfortunately a speculation as both planes fell in POK. Unless someone from Pak leaks the fate of F16 it would remain a speculation.

Fantastic - you sound like 'propaganda machine' operating out of studios in Noida asking for proof.

We should not dismiss any unflattering report or opinion as being written by some anti-India Propagandist. JMT!


This is what NYT has to say for India.

Image

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby komal » 04 Mar 2019 09:12

sudeepj wrote:
Your govt is telling you, that your pilot shot down an F16..
Pak govt. is telling you, it did not.

Whom should you believe?


Why would anyone with any sense of history and common sense believe in anything said by the Paki govt?

This is the govt in 1999 that refused to accept the bodies of their own soldiers to support the lie that it's army was not involved in Kargil.

This is the govt that was shocked, shocked to find that OBL was living in Pakistan.

You have to be nuts to believe one word coming out of Pakistan.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 04 Mar 2019 09:25

vimal wrote:I read the article and it is not as lopsided as you make it sound.


It is an asinine article written by a fool who begins the article by patronizing a skilled pilot who shot down an opponent against overwhelming odds, which they dont even mention. Speaks volumes.

It raises some very valid points regarding vintage military equipment and poor budgetary allocation for defense. Also, the point about India being the logical counter to China is not lost on anyone.


Only someone completely unaware of Indian military procurement would even lend NYTs hack job a credence, starting from their misreading of 10(I) to what vintage equipment means. 130mm M-46 are vintage. Are they really? With an 155mm upgrade?
Were the SPICE 2000s that went knocking on Pakistans door vintage, or were the Mirage 2000s they were deployed from, vintage?
I fully expect the idiot intern masquerading as a journalist, to not differentiate a mortar from a motor, which after all are NYTs standards. Ours though are a bit higher. We expect the same of our posters as well.

Lets be honest, Mig-21 is a 1960s era plane that is still flying and should've been to be phased out but there is no replacement in sight. A lot of these issues have been discussed on this forum and we all agree that modernization has suffered due to lack of political will and bureaucracy.


These are the last MiG-21s in IAF service, and have been retained for a reason. Kindly point out the % of MiG-21s in IAF service, as a proportion of the fleet.

Also, Mig-21 being shot down and pilot captured is a fact. F-16 being shot down is unfortunately a speculation as both planes fell in POK. Unless someone from Pak leaks the fate of F16 it would remain a speculation.


The IAF noting that the F-16 was shot down is confirmation enough for the rest of us, if not for you.

We should not dismiss any unflattering report or opinion as being written by some anti-India Propagandist. JMT!


The NYT has a long record of bigoted, anti India propaganda, if you are not aware of it, educate yourself please before sermonizing others.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 04 Mar 2019 09:35

With full american and uk help the 1971 genocide pf lakhs of bangladeshis was denied

Its only now under hasina govt that few aeging razakars are being punished

Among the 90,000 pow surely there were dozens of serious war criminal senior officers and execution squads
Again under international pressure these were sent back and no investigations launched

Nyt wapo all complicit in this

So pardon me if i spit on their farticles

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby yensoy » 04 Mar 2019 09:37

Please don't be blindside by the so-called "liberals" in the US. They are as bigoted, racist and patronizing as the conservatives, despite their so-called outward civility. NYT symbolizes this culture. Behind the veil of journalism, they spew the same prejudices. Back in 1998, they were propping up Sonia and the INC as fait accompli winners of the imminent elections (which were in fact won by NDA). These hack jobs send reporters no further out than 100km from Delhi, do all their fact gathering from select pockets and generalize to the rest of the country.

Liberals were responsible for the mess that is the American South Asia studies/relations/engagement. These fellows are all over Foggy Bottom doing their equal-equal nonsense. Better to have a fellow like Trump in power than Hillary (her type would be whole heartedly supported by NYT).

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby pankajs » 04 Mar 2019 09:38

achoudhury wrote:I am little disappointed that a consensus is settling on de-escalation and that we should react only if attacked once again. IMHO, this will be totally wrong. Now that we have changed status quo and a new normal is established, it will be suicidal to go back to reactive mode. We must pre-emptively strike whenever we have good intelligence. Even if striking deep in Pakistan may not be feasible all the time but terrorist lauch pads will be easy to strike from stand off distances using the air power. That should be absolute minimum. Also, keeping low intensity war may be in our favor to continuously bleed Pak. Also, India has to raise its covert capability. A regular strike on Pakis especially CPEC assets in Balochistan and sindh will break Pakis. While we can keep a public posture of fighting terrorism overtly, we need to keep inflicting thousands cuts on Pakistan to break it economically. We all know that only a splintered Pakistan is a long term solution.

There are 2 dimensions of the recent Indian action.
1. A response.
2. Pre-emptive action.

The way I read the recent action.
1. Response is now the new normal especially to spectacular attacks but NOT to every attack.
2. Even after Pulwama, there have been terror attack that have targeted the security forces AND where the security forces took far greater causality than the terrorist were we lost about 6 security forces for 2 pests. This is not even a equal exchange, even then the forces have not gone for a response apart from taking care of the immediate pests.
3. *Pre-emptive* is just a choice of words but it was still a response to Pulwama attack. Language is important for international diplomacy but one must not read too much into that.

I would suggest the following
1. Response to *spectacular* attack is now the NEW normal.
2. Every such attack India ends up India raising the bar and raising the cost to bakistan, which is a good thing.
3. Raising the bar will be a series of small steps over a period of time.
4. While I don't think the current action was *Pre-emptive*, its introduction was still significant. It allow time for all international players to get comfortable with that word so that in future they will not react adversely when we really start taking preemptive action. Familiarity breeds comfort.
5. Small attack too need to be responded to. The recent firefight on the LOC was again, in my view, a response to a lot of small incidents that have happened since the Balakot response. Though we suffered some casualties in that too the pain it caused to the other side was multiple time what they could do to us.
6. In agreement with you, we have to start/expand intelligence based and intelligence led covert action inside bakistan. We have to play the game bakis think they can play within India. Inline with this thought, I have suggested that our first line of defense should not be the LOC but inside bakistan.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby yensoy » 04 Mar 2019 09:42

Yawn says Paki govt considering shutting down terror factories: https://www.dawn.com/news/1467524/govt-plans-decisive-crackdown-on-militant-outfits. Wonder if IK got ISI's permission on this matter, or will he be subject to their mehman-nawazi?

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby asgkhan » 04 Mar 2019 09:43

Im da dim is the toilet paper used by the uniform jeehadis to dispose of when required. Waiting for non resident paki awams to analyse the response of Paki Army generals on the new normal.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby disha » 04 Mar 2019 09:45

achoudhury wrote:I am little disappointed that a consensus is settling on de-escalation and that we should react only if attacked once again. IMHO, this will be totally wrong. Now that we have changed status quo and a new normal is established, it will be suicidal to go back to reactive mode.


How do you know sir we will go in "reactive mode"? We just did a "non-military pre-emptive" strike against terrorists last week. Did we not? And any long term solution will be long term - that is it will take time. No long term solution will fit in 24 hour news cycle.

Actually it is good for the nation that for the next 2-3 weeks we discuss other things.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby VikramS » 04 Mar 2019 09:50

https://www.livefistdefence.com/2019/03 ... d-out.html



Modi Says ‘Outcome’ Different If Abhinandan Was In A Rafale. Is This True? We Find Out

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby pankajs » 04 Mar 2019 09:52

yensoy wrote:Yawn says Paki govt considering shutting down terror factories: https://www.dawn.com/news/1467524/govt-plans-decisive-crackdown-on-militant-outfits. Wonder if IK got ISI's permission on this matter, or will he be subject to their mehman-nawazi?

Another tactical move. How many times will they ban the same orgs / individuals?

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Shivaji » 04 Mar 2019 09:53

In most of the communications from GOI (MEA/MOD press conference immediately after PAF intrusion and one at 7 pm by tri-services) after PAF tried to intrude our air-space, use of the word they have attacked our "Military installations" stands out.

Would it not mean that next Pakistani mischief will see we targeting their "military installations"?

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Anujan » 04 Mar 2019 09:55

yensoy wrote:Yawn says Paki govt considering shutting down terror factories: https://www.dawn.com/news/1467524/govt-plans-decisive-crackdown-on-militant-outfits. Wonder if IK got ISI's permission on this matter, or will he be subject to their mehman-nawazi?


Pakistan government shuts down Pakistan sponsored terrorists organizations for good every month. In months when IMF negotiations are on, they usually shut them for good two times.

This month, in addition, FATF evaluation is going on so I fully expect that all Pakistan sponsored terrorism will be shut down for good three times!!

They will all be shut down again for good next month before pompeo's visit. I think by May, when unkil does quarterly F16 Musharraf counting, they'll be shut down for good again

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Dileep » 04 Mar 2019 09:57

For the 108th time..... these images are OLD and undated. If you look at the ctrl panel of zoom on the left of the screen, it says "no daily images available here"

There are TWO images available at landinfo. Both 50cm. One from WV02 is the best one, but still not enough resolution. The other from PHR1A is not clear at all.

Rishirishi wrote:Daily updated sat pic of Balakot (got the coordinates from Wikipedia, Balakot attacks.
https://zoom.earth/#34.46321,73.318545,19z,sat
This picture is supposed to be an updated one.

From google Earth
https://www.google.com/maps/place/34%C2%B027'48.0%22N+73%C2%B019'08.0%22E/@34.463139,73.3191064,299m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d34.4633333!4d73.3188889


The rooftop of one of the buildings seems to be lasted off.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby manju » 04 Mar 2019 09:59

ramana wrote:In rural TG they say 4 Anna means 25%.


also referred to as pavala (in telugu in some areas) and pavali (in kananda).. paav as in quarter

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby pankajs » 04 Mar 2019 10:01

VikramS wrote:https://www.livefistdefence.com/2019/03/modi-says-outcome-different-if-abhinandan-was-in-a-rafale-is-this-true-we-find-out.html

Modi Says ‘Outcome’ Different If Abhinandan Was In A Rafale. Is This True? We Find Out

The devil is in the translation. Here is another verison.
https://twitter.com/IndianExpress/statu ... 1079332864
The Indian Express Verified account @IndianExpress

JUST IN | Much more could have been achieved if India had Rafale aircraft, says PM Modi.

Similar to saying much *more* could have been achieved by using Su MKI. Now I am just saying in terms of *payload* delivery capacity. My statement is true without invalidating the balakot strike.

Sometime Modi does go into territory that he should not and ends up creating unnecessary controversy. He was primarily trying to highlight the importance of Rafale acquisition and the harm that its delay has caused.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 04 Mar 2019 10:07

I see nothing wrong in what Modi said, if anything he was mild. Those 36 Rafale would have put a real dampener on Pak AWACS ops, and with their sensor fusion and EW would have been worth their weight in gold. Please see how USAF uses F22s w/AWACs feeding data to other fighters and acting as spear tips.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 04 Mar 2019 10:08

It's the malice that is in the Indian left/INC apparatus, whom Modi was mild towards, who will seek to spin, twist whatever he says.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 04 Mar 2019 10:09

VikramS wrote:https://www.livefistdefence.com/2019/03/modi-says-outcome-different-if-abhinandan-was-in-a-rafale-is-this-true-we-find-out.html

Modi Says ‘Outcome’ Different If Abhinandan Was In A Rafale. Is This True? We Find Out


Doesnt even touch a fraction of what the Rafale is capable of.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby pravula » 04 Mar 2019 10:12

manju wrote:
ramana wrote:In rural TG they say 4 Anna means 25%.


also referred to as pavala (in telugu in some areas) and pavali (in kananda).. paav as in quarter


naal-anna in Tamil

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby manjgu » 04 Mar 2019 10:13

constant drone of something for last 1 hour followed by 1 ship ...

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Iyersan » 04 Mar 2019 10:21

Thandi shuruat chaubeez neram

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby sivab » 04 Mar 2019 10:24

Iyersan wrote:Thandi shuruat chaubeez neram


cool, hope you are right

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Rahul M » 04 Mar 2019 10:31

Anujan wrote:
yensoy wrote:Yawn says Paki govt considering shutting down terror factories: https://www.dawn.com/news/1467524/govt-plans-decisive-crackdown-on-militant-outfits. Wonder if IK got ISI's permission on this matter, or will he be subject to their mehman-nawazi?


Pakistan government shuts down Pakistan sponsored terrorists organizations for good every month. In months when IMF negotiations are on, they usually shut them for good two times.

This month, in addition, FATF evaluation is going on so I fully expect that all Pakistan sponsored terrorism will be shut down for good three times!!

They will all be shut down again for good next month before pompeo's visit. I think by May, when unkil does quarterly F16 Musharraf counting, they'll be shut down for good again

reminds me of the old joke about smoking; 'it is very easy to quit smoking,' says the chain-smoker, 'I have done it many times'.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby abhijitm » 04 Mar 2019 10:36

NYT love to call themselves liberals but they are most racist towards indian. Stopped reading them long time back.

Their own president call them dishonest and liars. Why should we even bother to refer their articles?

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby sivab » 04 Mar 2019 10:58

https://twitter.com/ZeeNews/status/1102432618677788673

Zee News
‏Verified account @ZeeNews

EXCLUSIVE : ZEE NEWS fearless 'Ground Reporting' from Jaish-e-Mohammed's Balakot camp in Pak where IAF carried out airstrikes.


Video with couple of eyewitness from balakot. One says aircrafts dropped 4 bombs.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby dhyana » 04 Mar 2019 11:02

Anujan quoted:
This month, in addition, FATF evaluation is going on so I fully expect that all Pakistan sponsored terrorism will be shut down for good three times!!


FATF pressure mounts on Pakistan as monitoring unit reports 8,707 suspicious transactions in 2018

Yup, the FATF pressure is the real reason for the announcement. Certain individuals will be placed under house arrest, and then released in due time. Things will go back to usual in several months. The Circle of Pakistan.
Last edited by dhyana on 04 Mar 2019 11:04, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 04 Mar 2019 11:02

rafale has a highly independent penetration aid/self defence EW suite that permits it to slide in and out of contested airspace without need for much offboard support.
when the "democracy" war started in libya, the french AF were offered the support of a growler squadron based in italy/spain but declined saying they were ok. while libya is notwhere near paf level, it also shows the confidence level in spectra.

bahawalpur is around 200km from the IB.

its survivability in ew dense and contested airspace in the DPSA role is surely significantly better than the Mirage2000-5 which is not a slouch.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby A_Gupta » 04 Mar 2019 11:04

A_Gupta wrote:I'm not 100% certain, but I think the coordinates that Nathan Ruser's estimate of the target corresponds to
34°27'50.25"N. 73°19'6.48"E or in decimal degrees: 34.463957°, 73.318466°
This is different from the other locations suggested:

1. Somewhere around Jaba: 34.433055,73.324516
2. Batrasi forest: 34.398564°, 73.316602°
3. Near a livestock research station: 34.440665°, 73.325271°


On twitter, Nathan Ruser has confirmed my guess of his target.
What he gives is: 34.464118, 73.318160 which is a few meters from where I put my pin.

This is a much more isolated spot than 1, 2, 3, above. There is no nearby significant habitation. It is on a ridge at the end of long road that runs along the ridge. On the other side the road continues for a bit and then peters out. It is between 2.5 and 3.3 kilometers as the crow flies from 1, 2, 3, above..

The meaning of "cordon off" this area is not clear, for 1, 2, 3 is more easy to understand. How villagers wander near it or near it or see it on the skyline is a bit mysterious.

The isolation might be appropriate for a jihad factory, so it could be the right spot. Just making it square with everything else purporting to be information that is floating around is not easy. Also, why isn't it possible that two of the above sets of coordinates contained targets?

PS: the Qibla from Balakot or Mansehra is 255° from north per online Qibla calculators. In a jihad factory, I'd expect to find a building whose major or minor axis is along this heading (assuming the building is rectangular). But they aren't. But looking at a masjid (Jama Masjid Patseri) in the area that is clear enough, the major axis heading is like 270°. So am puzzled.

But the buildings at 1. are oriented to 270°. At 2. it is difficult to say. There is one building at 3. at 270°. Actually at Nathan Russer's site, the largest structure is oriented at 250°.
Last edited by A_Gupta on 04 Mar 2019 11:27, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Aditya_V » 04 Mar 2019 11:12

Looks like deescalation has happened, Pakistani airspace is now fully open.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby ryogi » 04 Mar 2019 11:19

I have a theory for why there is no 'proof' shown by the GOI so far.

Remember the Surgical Strike? There was absolute silence right after, while the idiots were clamoring for 'proof'. One year layer, enough proof was released by the Army to shut them up. Right after this 'Uri' released, and now the Surgical Strikes are considered as fact. The timing was calibrated perfectly to build up to the present scenario. It's like things are going according to a script written and rehearsed a long time ago.

I predict that very close to the election, as this episode starts to fade from public perception, the proof will find it's way out through the proper channels (read IAF-no worrying about the EC directives!!). Why release it now, and allow the groundswell of public opinion to fade away in a month or so? Remember this is the social media generation that has a very short memory.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby ranneel » 04 Mar 2019 11:21

Aditya_V wrote:Looks like deescalation has happened, Pakistani airspace is now fully open.

Not yet...flightradar tweet says regular operations to resume at 08:00 utc on March 4th..that is 13:30 is.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby wig » 04 Mar 2019 11:23

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/natio ... 37704.html

3 key operatives died in Balakot Intel reports say 30 JeM terrorists killed | Unconfirmed reports of Azhar’s death

excerpted from the above
Three key operatives, including a Pakistan spy agency ISI Colonel, were killed in the February 26 Indian Air Force strike on a Jaish-e-Moham-med terror camp at Balakot in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, sources have said.
There are also unconfirmed reports of JeM founder Masood Azhar’s death due to injuries. However, a Pakistan TV channel, quoting sources close to the family of the JeM chief, said Azhar is “alive”, without elaborating on his health condition.

and


Inter-Services Intelligence Colonel Salim Qari, JeM trainer Maulana Moeen and the handler of Pulwama suicide bomber Adil Dar were among those killed in the IAF assault.

Colonel Qari was the trainer for almost three generations of suicide bombers and had carried out covert operations in India and Afghanistan. The ISI officer used to stay at the JeM camp.

There is credible human and technical intelligence to suggest Moeen, a bomb maker, was killed along with Dar’s handler. Sources said the number of terrorists killed in the Balakot strike was nearly 30 and not 250-300.

The airstrikes hit all terror safe houses, except the main building, located on a hilltop at Balakot where a sprawling 4.5-acre campus exists.

Though the Balakot terror camp usually holds 250-300 trainee terrorists, Pakistan had moved out most of them apprehending a strike. “That night (February 26), no more than 80-100 terrorists were there,” the sources said.

Neither the Indian Government nor the IAF had claimed 300 casualties, as was being reported by the media based on the usual average strength of the terror camp.

Data and imagery with the government indicate the ‘Popeye’ air-to-surface missiles fired from Mirage 2000 fighter jets had hit the designated targets.

and on the objective
Aim was to send message

"The purpose of the airstrikes was not to cause human casualty but to send out the message that India is capable of hitting deep inside enemy lines. Neither PM Modi nor any government spokesperson had given any figure on the casualty. The media and social media did that"—SS Ahluwalia, Union Minister

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Varoon Shekhar » 04 Mar 2019 11:30

^
Hmmm, about 30 terrorist scum dead, good. Ulan Batori any remarks about this casualty figure? I would love to believe your higher figures, and they could still be correct. Just needs some independent corroboration.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby abhishek_sharma » 04 Mar 2019 11:32

Hukum
@reachanshul
24m24 minutes ago
More
The AIM-120 C was fired by one of the 4 x F-16 flying CAP in the general area of
Mangla Dam (POK).This was aimed at 4x Su-30MKI which was vectored towards Sunderbani to deter any attempts to target Udhampur AFS.

---
Hukum
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Follow Follow @reachanshul
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The Su-30 MKI which was "locked on" by the F-16 , quickly punched counter measures on being warned by the onboard Tarang RWR.The AIM-120 C lost lock and went onto slam into Reasi.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Prabu » 04 Mar 2019 11:42

A FirstPost article. But what worries me is this.


Factbox: India's larger army 'limited by inadequate logistics', while Pakistan is 'modernising its inventory'
Army

India has a 1.2 million-strong army, supported by more than 3,565 battle tanks, 3,100 infantry fighting vehicles, 336 armored personnel carriers and 9,719 pieces of artillery, according to IISS.

Pakistan’s army is smaller, with 560,000 troops backed by 2,496 tanks, 1,605 armored personnel carriers, and 4,472 artillery guns, including 375 self-propelled howitzers.

Despite its larger army, the capability of India's "conventional forces is limited by inadequate logistics, maintenance and shortages of ammunition and spare parts", IISS said in a report this month.

Air force

With 127,200 personnel and 814 combat aircraft, India’s air force is substantially larger but there are concerns about its fighter jet fleet.

India's defence plans require 42 squadrons of jets, about 750 aircraft, to defend against a two-pronged attack from China and Pakistan. With older Russian jets like the MiG-21, first used in the 1960s, retiring soon, India could have 22 squadrons by 2032, officials say.

Pakistan has 425 combat aircraft, including the Chinese-origin F-7PG and American F-16 Fighting Falcon jets. It also has seven airborne early warning and control aircraft, three more than India, IISS said.

"The (Pakistan) air force is modernising its inventory while improving its precision-strike and ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) capabilities," IISS said in its 2019 assessment.


Navy

India's navy consists of one aircraft carrier, 16 submarines, 14 destroyers, 13 frigates, 106 patrol and coastal combatant vessels, and 75 combat capable aircraft. It has 67,700 personnel, including marines and naval aviation staff.

Pakistan, which has a significantly smaller coastline, has nine frigates, eight submarines, 17 patrol and coastal vessels, and eight combat capable aircraft.
Last edited by Prabu on 04 Mar 2019 11:49, edited 1 time in total.

yensoy
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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby yensoy » 04 Mar 2019 11:43

Aditya_V wrote:Looks like deescalation has happened, Pakistani airspace is now fully open.


Stages:
1. Paki airspace totally closed
2. Paki airspace partially open (few airports, few air routes) to Paki airlines
3. Paki airspace partially open (all airport, few air routes) to all airlines bound for/originating from Pak
4. Paki airspace partially open (all airports, all air routes) to all airlines bound for/originating from Pak
5. Paki airspace partially open (all airports, all air routes) to all airlines overflying Pak but not going through India
6. Paki airspace partially open (all airports, all air routes) to all airlines except Indian overflying Pak
7. Paki airspace fully open


We were at stage 2 yesterday, now at stage 3. Long ways to go till stage 7.

pankajs
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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby pankajs » 04 Mar 2019 12:19

ryogi wrote:I have a theory for why there is no 'proof' shown by the GOI so far.

Remember the Surgical Strike? There was absolute silence right after, while the idiots were clamoring for 'proof'. One year layer, enough proof was released by the Army to shut them up. Right after this 'Uri' released, and now the Surgical Strikes are considered as fact. The timing was calibrated perfectly to build up to the present scenario. It's like things are going according to a script written and rehearsed a long time ago.

I predict that very close to the election, as this episode starts to fade from public perception, the proof will find it's way out through the proper channels (read IAF-no worrying about the EC directives!!). Why release it now, and allow the groundswell of public opinion to fade away in a month or so? Remember this is the social media generation that has a very short memory.

The cynic in me has another angle how this can be gamed ... Modi being the smart politician that he is.

How do you trip up your opponent without being aggressive? Allow them to attack you on an issue that *WILL be seen* as an attack on India i.e. the mango admi's ego.

No one likes that and folks can go to any extent to push back to the extent of *creating* new facts. We have seen this in bakistan where facts are invented daily on a massive scale to show their superiority over Yindu. Even those meekest will wait to take revenge on the entity that *insulted* them when an opportunity is presented.

1. Modi leaves a flank open by not giving out proof.
2. The anti-Modi cabal, after their last experience post Uri maintain restrain initially BUT the urge to hit back does not last long.
3. The anti-Modi cabal start questioning the efficiency of the *so called* air strikes at balakot demanding proof.
4. Modi allows that chorus to build up and at the appropriate time turns it into an attack on the forces/India.
5. Mango admi is disgusted by this direct attack on their ego i.e. the forces who are apolitical and the country's capabilities.
6. Mango admi takes revenge at the polls. 3-5% vote swing in key constituencies will ensure another landslide for Modi.

Singha
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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 04 Mar 2019 12:23

derek o brien already seems to have stepped deep into that IED laden minefield.

given the nightly probings by IAF (loud paf patrols over vital areas) and reports of azhar ji being moved from army hospital pindi to some jaish den in bahawalpur, its highly unlikely that civilian air traffic can resume in indus valley trunk route safety...atleast not at night.

but then even in day, iaf could sneak up with popeye or the huge brahmos thats now integrated on selected su30 , transponder off, behind civil flights and release missile onto some terror target over Raj airspace and turn away. IDFAF has been doing it to stymie syrian AD.

and if Pak returns the favour on a civil or mil target, they can expect a full on fight.

they can either suck it up and sulk, or start fighting. either way unhappy situation.

airlines cannot plan their business with a daily chance of having reroute over such a troubled area. it throws all their operational and connectivity plans out of gear. they can better slightly shift routes south and fly safe. lufthansa has already said the closure of tsp airspace has minimal impact on their network.

Gus
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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Gus » 04 Mar 2019 12:24

pravula wrote:
manju wrote:
also referred to as pavala (in telugu in some areas) and pavali (in kananda).. paav as in quarter


naal-anna in Tamil


ana/anna was a coin before paise. it came to 4 ana for 1 rupee.

for a long time 25 paise was called naalana (four ana). since 25 paise was discontinued, people lost the connection between 1 ana and quarter..


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