Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

UlanBatori
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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 17 Mar 2019 01:22

Trikaal wrote:I doubt India targeted Pakistan's nuclear facility. We have an agreement, and if there's one thing I know, it's that we never go back on our written word. We consider treaties too sacrosanct.

I agree 400%. It's the declared facility that is sacrosanct per Treaty. Of course if it so happens that there happened to be a few dozen nukes at some other facility where there was an unfortunate accident.... :((

Also, re: weapons Aid provided by Pakistan to India: I hope there is some gratitude and reciprocity, with some of the weapons returned via Chabahar etc to the Deserving Poor. In Balochistan?

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Rakesh » 17 Mar 2019 01:42

https://twitter.com/vkthakur/status/1106924749568000000 ---> That is a Chinese rip off of the West German toy Drone X Pro. You can buy them online - 3 for around Rs 12,000/- If the drone had been shot, nothing would have been left of it. They cannot fly 150 m away from their controller. If they do, they come down on their own!

Above tweet in response to Major Buffoon Asif Ghafoor's tweet below...

https://twitter.com/OfficialDGISPR/stat ... 0807442432 ----> Pakistan Army troops shot down an Indian spying quadcopter in Rakhchikri Sector along Line of Control. The quadcopter had come 150 meters inside Pakistan.

Photo of the "supposed" Indian drone shot down in Pakistan....

Image

Germany's Drone X Pro....

Image

Chinese copy of Germany's Drone X Pro....

Image

ramana
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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby ramana » 17 Mar 2019 07:44

GD, You need to think a little deeper.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby chetak » 17 Mar 2019 08:47

An earlier article.


INSIDE STORY OF INDIA'S STRIKE INSIDE PAKISTAN


INSIDE STORY OF INDIA'S STRIKE INSIDE PAKISTAN

By R. Prasannan, Namrata Biji Ahuja And Pradip R. Sagar

It was a coincidence, but a propitious one. Two days after a suicide bomber had driven his explosive-laden Maruti Eeco into a trooper convoy at Pulwama, killing 40 CRPF constables and escorts, the Indian Air Force had its scheduled annual firepower demonstration, Vayu Shakti, on February 16. There, in the Pokhran range where the exercise takes place every spring, several Mirages, MiG-27s and Jaguars emptied their precision bombs and ground-strike munitions in front of hundreds of news cameras, secret recoding devices and even satellite eyes of the big powers. Not more than five men on the grandstand of the VIPs knew that a few of the aircraft were actually rehearsing the strikes that they would deliver in real enemy territory exactly a week later.

A day before the exercise, Air Chief Marshal B.S. Dhanoa had driven up the Raisina Hill from his Vayu Bhawan office and given a presentation to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and some of their closest security aides. There he had reiterated what several other chiefs before him had told their prime ministers—that the IAF had the capability to deliver precision strikes on terror camps in Pakistan as also occupied Kashmir.

But there was a difference this time. On earlier occasions when air strikes had been thought of, the targets had been close to the Line of Control, mostly in occupied Kashmir. This time, however, an overcautious Pakistan had emptied out all the terror training camps and launchpads near the LoC, and moved them into the sovereign territory of Pakistan. Hitting those could provoke the enemy into retaliating in kind, Dhanoa is said to have warned. Would the political leadership be willing to risk an escalation?

_Plan of action: Prime Minister Modi addresses a Cabinet Committee on Security meeting on February 26_

It was that risk that had held back several governments earlier from hitting the truant neighbor with military force—after the attack on Parliament, after the attack in Mumbai, after the attacks in Pathankot, Uri and several other places. But this time, the mood had changed.

All the same, as the chief was about to leave, the prime minister is said to have added a clause of caution—strike at the terror camp, but ensure that there will be no collateral damage on any military installation or civilian life and property.
As the senior air staff at Vayu Bhawan scrambled to assess the situation, they found that it would be no easy task. For Pakistan is a country dotted with military installations, and most terror training camps were close to, or even attached to military stations. The strikes would have to be pin-precise.

Meanwhile, the chiefs and their staff officers had received inputs from the R&AW and IB, whose heads Anil Dhasmana and Rajiv Jain were also present at the meeting. One target that would yield politico-military dividend was the Bahawalpur headquarters of Masood Azhar, the head of the Jaish-e-Mohammad that had perpetrated the Pulwama and several other attacks on India.

_High alert: Prime Minister Imran Khan addresses a meeting of Pakistan’s National Security Committee_

But Bahawalpur was soon ruled out for several reasons, the foremost being that it was well-guarded by the Pakistani army and air defence. Moreover, the clutter of talk from India about Bahawalpur had made Pakistan virtually “over-guard” their precious asset. Meanwhile, the National Technical Research Organisation had supplied satellite pictures and data about 30 terror-training locations, including the ones at Jalalabad, Balakot, Khalid bin Wahid, Jungal Mangal, Abbottabad and Tarbela, all of which were reporting heightened activity, perhaps due to the arrival of the trainers and recruits from the camps in PoK. “Such missions are the result of great coordination among all the agencies,” pointed out Alok Joshi, former NTRO chief who was part of the planning for the 2016 surgical strikes.

The choice was soon made—the strike would be on the Syed Ahmed Shaheed training camp in Balakot, not the Balakot in Poonch near the line of control, but the little town of Balakot in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on the sovereign territory of Pakistan. The outskirts of the town had hosted one of the oldest terror training camps of Pakistan which, some say, dated back to the days when President Zia-ul-Haq arranged training for the Afghan mujahideen to wage war against the Soviet military in the 1980s. The facility had since been given over to Hizbul Mujahideen and in recent years to Jaish-e-Mohammad. “There are several such terror camps inside Pakistan and these details have been shared with the Pakistan government time and again,” former home secretary G.K. Pillai told THE WEEK. “However, no action has been taken to dismantle the terror infrastructure on its soil. Balakot is one such facility that has been used by multiple terror organisations.”

The hilltop facility by the Kunhar river offered a sprawling campus, where recruits were imparted the advanced Daura-e-Khaas training in weapons, explosives and field tactics, tactics for attacking security convoys, planting and making improvised explosive devices, preparations for suicide bombing, rigging vehicles for suicide attacks and survival tactics in high altitude and under extreme stress. Masood had been known to visit the place to give inspirational lectures, and he had entrusted the administration of the camp to his brother-in-law Yusuf Azhar, alias Ustad Ghauri, who is suspected to have masterminded the Pulwama attack. “Balakot was used for battle inoculation,” said the intelligence dossiers presented to the prime minister.

The snoops also had copies of dossiers kept by the Pakistan Punjab government on 42 Jaish-e-Mohammad instructors, all of who had trained, and some of whom were training fresh recruits at Balakot, complete with their phone numbers, names of parents, and home addresses in Bahawalpur, Multan, Rawalpindi, Faisalabad, Attock, Sahiwal, Muzaffarabad, Rajanpur and Mianwali. They also told the prime minister that Masood Azhar himself had been at the Balakot facility on February 5, which was Kashmir Solidarity Day. His earlier visit had been in October when he had offered a prayer for acceptance of the “martyrdom” of his 18-year-old nephew Usman (son of his elder brother Ibrahim Azhar), who had been gunned down by security forces in Tral in Kashmir. Azhar had urged Kashmiris to follow in the footsteps of Usman. Adil Ahmad Dar, the Pulwama fidayeen bomber, is said to have been inspired by that speech, which was circulated on social media. And Yusuf Azhar, who had been trained at Balakot, was training more youngsters there. All this made Balakot the perfect target.

_Lethal weapons: a train loaded with army trucks and artillery guns parked at a railway station on the outskirts of jammu | Reuters_

Balakot was finally zeroed in on, but the prime minister still had a word of caution—no collateral damage to civilian or military lives or assets, please.

Thus, it was with the weight of the Balakot mission in mind that Dhanoa flew to Pohkran the next day. When media men quizzed him there, he would only say that the IAF was ever prepared to deliver “appropriate response” as assigned by India’s political leadership. Two days later, on February 18, Dhanoa was again summoned to the prime minister’s office, where he received the final go-ahead. The same evening, Dhanoa’s office called the No 7 squadron in Gwalior, and assigned it the task.

By then, the IAF had done the complete operational planning with Air Marshal Hari Kumar, chief of the Delhi-based Western Command, and Air Marshal Rajesh Kumar, head of the Allahabad-based Central Command. ..Loki:Central Command because the Gwalior squadron came under it, and western command because it would have to provide all the support, such as escorts, air defence cover, early warning and even mid-air refuelling from the huge Ilyushin-78 tankers.

But why Mirages, and that too all the way from Gwalior? Why not the equally advanced MiG-29 from Adampur, dedicated ground attack MiG-27 from Bathinda, deep-strike Jaguars from Ambala or the workhorse MiG-Biz from Pathankot or elsewhere? Several factors went into the selection of the strike aircraft, the route of ingress and even the logistics. “For carrying out such operations, first of all is the target selection, which is vital. You must have something to strike because we do not risk so many aircraft, crew and prestige on something which is just a hilltop,” explained retired Air Vice Marshal Manmohan Bahadur. “Once you decide on the target, then comes types of aircraft and weapons. Planning like routing, assets, have to go along like AWACS, flight refueller and others.”

Hitting the targets in pakistan could provoke the enemy into retaliating in kind, air marshal B.S. Dhanoa is said to have warned. Hitting the targets in pakistan could provoke the enemy into retaliating in kind, air marshal B.S. Dhanoa is said to have warned.The reasons for choosing the Mirages were several. For one, Mirages were equipped with laser-guiding pods and more modern electronic warfare suits that could jam Pakistani air defences. They have fly-by-wire flight control system which freed the pilot to focus on releasing the weapon; have Sextant VE-130 HUD, which displays data related to flight control, navigation, target engagement, and weapon firing. They also have Thales RDY 2 radar, aiding the pilot to engage any enemy plane from long distance. The pilots are also equipped with display inside their helmet, enabling them to see radar data without looking at the cockpit display. This means a pilot can direct weapons by merely pointing their head instead of manoeuvering the entire jet in the direction of the target. Their SPICE (Smart Precise Impact Cost Effective guidance kit)-2000 kits, mounted on a standard 2000-pound Mk 84 unguided bomb, were the smartest munition to hit soft targets on the ground without inflicting collateral damage.

The other available aircraft were MiG-Biz, MiG-29 and Jaguars. Though recently upgraded, MiG-Biz is essentially a short-range jet, more suited to dogfights with enemy planes than for ground attack. MiG-29s are longer-range and immensely powerful, but more suited in an interceptor role for establishing air superiority. Jaguars are deep-strike jets, but with limited capability for dogfight in case the enemy scrambles. The Mirages, recently upgraded and armed with MICA air-to-air missiles, can engage targets at beyond visual ranges and also at close ranges—one missile for two jobs.

The choice of Gwalior as the launch base was also ideal. For one, Gwalior indeed is the home base of the Mirage squadrons. Secondly, from there they could take off and climb high while in Indian airspace, and then swoop down to treetop level to evade enemy radars as they approached Pakistani airspace. They could strike at the target from stand-off positions, before climbing to higher altitudes to scoot. “This is called hi-lo-lo-hi mode of strike,” said an air officer. “You take off high so as to save fuel and gain speed, ingress into enemy territory low so as to evade enemy radars, strike from low altitude, and then climb up to egress fast. Any squadron from closer to the border would have been picked up by the enemy as soon as they took off. Therefore, the strike had to take off from deep inside India.”
The squadron, No 7, was also battle-hardened. Loki:Known as Battle Axes, they had seen action in Operation Cactus in November 1988 in the Maldives, and then in Kargil where Wing Commander Sandeep Chhabra earned a Yudh Seva Medal and Wing Commander (now marshal and commanding-in-chief of eastern command) R. Nambiar the Vayu Sena Medal.

Squadron 7 had a week to practise. And that whole week the MiGs from the border bases, and even heavy Sukhois from deeper-inland bases, flew up on hundreds of combat air patrol missions near the border and LoC, creating clutters on Pakistani radars.

They did the same in the early hours of February 26, too. Sukhois from Halwara and even deep-inland bases like Bareilly roared around in the western command’s airspace, executing forward sweeps. Behind that air cover, two Ilyushin-78 tanker planes flew up from Agra to air-fuel the Mirages, in case any jet got thirsty mid-air. And two early warning planes from Bathinda roamed around looking deep into Pakistani airspace and giving realtime information to the Mirages about enemy fighter activity.

At 2am on February 26, when the enemy skies were clear during the graveyard shift, 12 of the Mirages, armed with laser-pods, SPICE-2000 and Crystal Maze Mark2 air-to-ground missiles, and fire-and-forget medium-range (90km) Popeye missiles flew up high into the central Indian skies and then swooped down as they approached the Pakistani airspace. There they split into three groups heading north, west and south. “This is done with two purposes,” said an Air Force officer. “One is to avoid presenting a cluster of targets to the enemy, the other is to strike at the enemy from several directions. We call it multi-directional saturation strike. By using the technique of ‘masking by hills’, our fighters were able to beat the Pakistan air defence radars. Two decoys were also used to distract Pakistan air force. A Heron unmanned aerial vehicle was also up in the air for monitoring and assessment of the target.”

Image

Intelligence reports earlier had said that the camps at Jabba Top in Balakot, Chakothi and on the suburbs of Muzaffarabad housed 200 to 300 JeM cadre, trainers and leaders. ‪From 3.42am‬ the Mirages pounded the three targets—all within a radius of 10km—for nearly eight minutes. The jets fired 12 Spice 2000 precision-guided bombs and two Popeye air-to-ground missiles with the explosive weight over 1,000kg.

The Pakistan air force, taken by surprise, did scramble their F-16s, but by then the Mirages had climbed, disregarding the radars, and raced back. “Pakistan’s lack of strategic depth helped us,” said an officer. “The targets were just about 65km from Indian airspace. The ingress by our strike [fighters] took longer because they took circuitous routs and also flew low to evade enemy radars. But the egress was quick. They flew back straight, and also at high altitude.” By ‪4.30am‬ all the fighters were back in Gwalior after carrying IAF’s first cross-border strike since 1971.

The next morning, as Indian air defence radars, linked to Spyder missile batteries and Akash air defence missiles, scanned the horizons and the border base MiGs patrolled the skies, Indian Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale announced to the media: “In an intelligence-led operation in the early hours of Tuesday, India struck the biggest training camp of JeM in Balakot. In this operation, a very large number of JeM terrorists, trainers, senior commanders and groups of jihadis who were being trained for fidayeen action were eliminated. This facility at Balakot was headed by Maulana Yousuf Azhar alias Ustad Ghouri, [who is] the brother-in-law of Masood Azhar.”

Pakistan, however, denied any casualties, and said that its jets had fought off the Indian ones, which had dropped the payload in haste. Bashir Wali, the former head of Pakistan Intelligence Bureau, even denied the presence of any terror camps in Balakot. “It is war hysteria created by India for its elections. I have been to those areas. It has been snowing there. There would be a maximum of five or six houses in the entire area. Indian jets only offloaded the bomb while quickly returning to their Indian base,” he said. “India has started the wrong game and Pakistan will react two times to any provocation.”

And, it did. Soon, the tactical picture began to change. Protesting violently, Pakistan scrambled their air force, which conducted several menacing combat patrols close to the international border and the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir. In what is now suspected a clever trap to lure Indian fighters, a pack of F-16, JF-17 and Mirage-5 streamed across the Line of Control around 10am into the Noushera, Bimbargali and Krishna Ghat sectors of Rajouri and Poonch districts. The Mirage-5 tried to bomb the Indian Army’s 25 Division headquarters, and an ammunition and logistics depot close to the brigade headquarters in Poonch.

The IAF immediately scrambled a combat air patrol from Awantipora base close to Srinagar. Five MiG-Biz chased the four F-16s that turned back, with two MiGs in hot pursuit, but one, flown by Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, was hit and downed. Much like the capture of Wing Commander Nachiketa during the Kargil war, he was immediately mobbed, but quickly captured by the Pakistani ground forces.

As the Pakistan military posted videos of Varthaman being quizzed, India was pressing upon Pakistan to treat him by the Geneva Conventions, which demanded that a prisoner of war be not tortured or coerced into revealing more than bare details about himself, his unit and his mission.

The external affairs ministry summoned the Pakistan acting high commissioner in Delhi, and “strongly objected to Pakistan’s vulgar display of an injured personnel of the Indian Air Force in violation of all norms of international humanitarian law”.

India also ruled out Pakistan’s call for a dialogue, and said there would be “no deal” on the pilot’s release.

The following day, on February 28, hours after the US reportedly called for immediate steps towards de-escalation, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan announced in Parliament that they would release Varthaman as “a gesture of peace”. He said he wanted de-escalation. The question is: Will he get it?

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Avinandan
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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Avinandan » 17 Mar 2019 08:50

Rakesh wrote:https://twitter.com/vkthakur/status/1106924749568000000 ---> That is a Chinese rip off of the West German toy Drone X Pro. You can buy them online - 3 for around Rs 12,000/- If the drone had been shot, nothing would have been left of it. They cannot fly 150 m away from their controller. If they do, they come down on their own!

Above tweet in response to Major Buffoon Asif Ghafoor's tweet below...

https://twitter.com/OfficialDGISPR/stat ... 0807442432 ----> Pakistan Army troops shot down an Indian spying quadcopter in Rakhchikri Sector along Line of Control. The quadcopter had come 150 meters inside Pakistan.

Photo of the "supposed" Indian drone shot down in Pakistan....

Image

Germany's Drone X Pro....

On closer look, unable to acertain that this is the Chinese version. There are no holes/ black spots in the 2 arms. But again the wellow band in the left arm of the drone is not continuous and has the name of the company, so probably this could be Chinese also or some other brand.

Speculation: This could be flown from India to test Pakistani air defences...

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby John » 17 Mar 2019 09:19

^ Those drones are likely operated by other Pakistani forces and they shot down their own drone. Or could even be a drone operated by civilians in the area.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 17 Mar 2019 09:28

for 27 years, india and pak have annually exchanged a list of nuclear facilities not to be attacked.
however this list is not in the public domain on both sides.

this article offers a clue that nukular weapon storage facilities may not be reported in this list .... (no way we can verify unless we see the list). the author despite the think tanks resources, does not seem to know either.


https://www.stimson.org/content/moderni ... -agreement

To improve the survivability of nuclear forces and therefore to strengthen deterrence, India and Pakistan have dispersed storage of nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles. Intelligence agencies in each country no doubt spend considerable effort monitoring suspected nuclear storage facilities in seeking to understand and forecast the nuclear operations of the other side. They would look for indicators that would warn of a change in the levels of readiness or alert, and also tracking information to feed into the strategic forces operations and plans process. For this reason, the nuclear weapons establishments in each country undoubtedly expend considerable effort to hide such information.

Notably, nuclear weapons storage facilities are not explicitly covered by the non-attack agreement. Presumably few if any such facilities existed when the agreement was negotiated in 1988, so there was little reason to include them explicitly in the definitions section of the agreement.

Today, there are most likely a handful of weapons depots and related operational locations that store the fissile material cores of nuclear weapons in each country, mostly located on or near military bases. An expansive reading of paragraph 1(ii) of the non-attack agreement, which defines “nuclear installation or facility,” would argue for inclusion of weapons storage facilities under the definitions: “installations with fresh or irradiated nuclear fuel and materials in any form and establishments storing significant quantities of radioactive materials.” But it is unimaginable that the two countries would report the locations of nuclear weapons storage facilities to each other, given the operational requirement to conceal them. Indeed, such facilities are likely to be on the high-priority target lists of each country’s military planners.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby arshyam » 17 Mar 2019 10:11

chetak wrote:An earlier article.


INSIDE STORY OF INDIA'S STRIKE INSIDE PAKISTAN


INSIDE STORY OF INDIA'S STRIKE INSIDE PAKISTAN

By R. Prasannan, Namrata Biji Ahuja And Pradip R. Sagar

<snip>

The IAF immediately scrambled a combat air patrol from Awantipora base close to Srinagar. Five MiG-Biz chased the four F-16s that turned back, with two MiGs in hot pursuit, but one, flown by Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, was hit and downed. Much like the capture of Wing Commander Nachiketa during the Kargil war, he was immediately mobbed, but quickly captured by the Pakistani ground forces.

<snip>

I find it interesting that they mention Wg Cdr Abhinandan's MiG-21 being hit and going down (GoI has actually not said why his aircraft went down), but conveniently skip mentioning his taking down an F-16 before that. The Week has to screw up an otherwise good article. I suppose their editors take the moral high ground that GoI's statements on that hit don't amount to proof. Now I have to wonder how much to rely on the rest of the article. With friends like these, why have enemies? Ack thoo only.

@Karan M saar and others, a few of you have been complaining about GoI's (lack of) information warfare capabilities, but with such 'doubting thomas' media houses, there is only so much the GoI can do to put its word out. This article itself is a case in point on the battle GoI has to fight - they have clearly shared a lot of details on the op so its version gets put out, but what do they get in return? A well-written article with a lot of juicy details (which convinces the aam reader of its authenticity) and also uses the same article to do equal-equal and downplay our own achievements. Since the details have convinced the aam reader of the article's authenticity, the reader could take note of the conspicuous omission of the F-16 takedown and conclude that it did not happen. Info warfare 101, by our own media, against us. Another ack thoo only.

I too agree that GoI should do better on media management, but our media does not act as the force multiplier it should have been. Instead, they write for a supposedly neutral bhestern audience that does not exist for the most part (no one in the west has heard of The Week), and end up doing an equal-equal. See how they said US pressure forced Im-the-dim to return Wg Cdr Abhi, when there is no evidence of such a thing, and in fact, Indian pressure was evident in tying the pakis into knots and led to his immediate release. A "how's the khauff" moment got turned into something mundane.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby ramana » 17 Mar 2019 10:24

There are a lot of #Fatherch*ds in India and in high places.
Some we know quite well.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 17 Mar 2019 10:52

a retired armor corps colonel now in media & twitter has taken up a new crusade to prove the balakot strikes explosive impact as false. he is busy polling retd munitions experts in the army to support his pov. who he is working for anyone's guess.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 17 Mar 2019 10:57

https://www.news18.com/news/india/in-6- ... _top_pos_3

on other hand, these are the kinds of statements that help keep the pot simmering... :)

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby sudeepj » 17 Mar 2019 11:10

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 446206.cms

NEW DELHI/ISLAMABAD: The sparring between India and Pakistan last month threatened to spiral out of control and only interventions by US officials, including National Security Advisor John Bolton, headed off a bigger conflict, five sources familiar with the events said.

At one stage, India threatened to fire at least six missiles at Pakistan, and Islamabad said it would respond with its own missile strikes "three times over", according to Western diplomats and government sources in New Delhi, Islamabad and Washington.


Reuters has pieced together the events that led to the most serious military crisis in South Asia since 2008, as well as the concerted diplomatic efforts to get both sides to back down.

...

That evening, Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval spoke over a secure line to the head of Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), Asim Munir, to tell him India was not going to back off its new campaign of "counter terrorism" even after the pilot’s capture, an Indian government source and a Western diplomat with knowledge of the conversations told Reuters in New Delhi.

Doval told Munir that India's fight was with the terrorist groups that freely operated from Pakistani soil and it was prepared to escalate, said the government source.

A Pakistani government minister and a Western diplomat in Islamabad separately confirmed a specific Indian threat to use six missiles on targets inside Pakistan. They did not specify who delivered the threat or who received it, but the minister said Indian and Pakistani intelligence agencies "were communicating with each other during the fight, and even now they are communicating with each other".


So a Pakistani account claiming India warned them that we were ready to climb the next rung in the escalation ladder. If this account is true, which is doubtful, I think Indian decision makers are still thinking in terms of proportional retaliation.

In my personal opinion, I dont think this threat to use limited force was effective. It signaled to the Pakistanis, that Indians were not prepared for an aar-paar. It would have been more effective to threaten complete war. This again means, that Pakistani elite can again take a calculated risk in the subconventional space for attacks on India, with an expected response from India that remains proportionate and not existential.

Brace for a mass casualty attack part way through the election. This is the best chance for Pak to secure a weak govt. in India that can make their planned invasion of Afghanistan easier. They wont let this chance go without another throw of the dice.

I sometimes feel, our decision makers do not have the Kshatriya upbringing to understand what weapons mean and how they keep peace. There is a tradition in many parts of India, that a sword, if taken out of the scabbard, must taste blood before its put back. It ensures that the sword is only taken out for deadly violence, not as a toy to threaten someone. The tradition also ensures that swords are kept in scabbards most of the time.

My only hope is that this reportage by garbage reuters is not true. After the Paki airstrike, we had an internationally recognized casus belli, which we should have utilized effectively. If true, we have just bought ourselves misery.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby sudeepj » 17 Mar 2019 11:11

Singha wrote:a retired armor corps colonel now in media & twitter has taken up a new crusade to prove the balakot strikes explosive impact as false. he is busy polling retd munitions experts in the army to support his pov. who he is working for anyone's guess.



Shoo Claw?

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 17 Mar 2019 11:13

Who else?

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Ardeshir » 17 Mar 2019 11:26

Singha wrote:a retired armor corps colonel now in media & twitter has taken up a new crusade to prove the balakot strikes explosive impact as false. he is busy polling retd munitions experts in the army to support his pov. who he is working for anyone's guess.

The retired colonel is tied to the CON-gress ecosystem via marriage. His family members are prime accused in the National Herald case.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby ramana » 17 Mar 2019 11:42

SudeepJ, Nothing of that sort will happen.
They will get hit so hard.
12 SPICE 2K were used.

Lot more different stuff available including Brahmos.

GD, Those explosive experts need to think why walls are still standing after being hit.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 17 Mar 2019 12:28

Image

see the magnified chart here for easier reading

https://www.quora.com/How-deep-does-a-b ... s-it-do-it

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 17 Mar 2019 12:39

so even the powered CALCM in middle with a light chassis (has to be light being a ALCM for range) can give in some 4m @ its terminal speed of around 800kmph.

I am not sure what the material is supposed to be be - soil, concrete or natural rock ( softer to hardest ).... the GBU43 MOP is listed as 61m so must be soil I guess ? these inert air carried bombs has the benefit of a very hard heavy shell which missiles like ALCM or brahmos cannot have luxury of.

muricans will use the B2 to drop it off.

neverthless the penetration figure of brahmos @ terminal speed of mach3 in vertical dive will be much more than CALCM which is 4m in chart above....should be able to punch through 5m thick sheet of concrete with rod mesh inside. ie the US funded premier level aircraft and weapons shelters in and around PAF bases can be tackled at standoff range. the nuclear weapons storage vaults seen in raj47 tweet will be under dense natural rock and need special weapons like MOP, infact MOP was developed to tackle similar constructions in Iran.

also if cruise missiles are accurate, they can target the entrances of such shelters, and they do carry a large warhead. in airbases there is usually a blast wall infront of such entrances to protect from cruise missiles though.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby ks_sachin » 17 Mar 2019 13:29

SudeepJ what does a Kshatriya have to do with it?

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 17 Mar 2019 14:27

Singha wrote:Who else?


Guy is, seriously, behaving disgracefully. Complete example of personal intent trumping objectivity let alone patriotism.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Aditya G » 17 Mar 2019 14:29

The IAF delivered a landmark and successful operation in Pakistan by striking Balakot.

The PAF retaliated the next day with a failed mission but secured a face saver. But also got lucky and our pilot was captured. If Wingco Abhi was not captured, even if he was shot down the exchange could have continued further. The chances of us capturing a Pakistani pilot was less given they never wanted to come to our side of the LoC.

Coming back to PAF however - their revenge op was meant for optics but they did attack. Where does this leave Indian decision makers for the next operation?

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 17 Mar 2019 14:30

Guys, have you read this? It has all the tech stuff detailed.

Sameer Joshi is a BRF member.
https://medium.com/@sameerjoshi73/hell- ... d607efb854
ANALYSING THE TACTICAL & TECHNICAL EFFICACY OF THE INDIAN AIR FORCE’s USE OF SPICE 2000 BOMBS TO TARGET PAKISTAN BASED JAISH_E_MOHAMMAD’s (JeM) TERROR CAMP AT JABA HILL TOP, BALAKOT ON 26 FEB 2019

***The author is an former fighter pilot with extensive experience on the Mirage 2000 and MiG 21 aircraft of the IAF. He has seen combat in the 1999 Indo Pak Kargil conflict. He writes on military subjects and his article on the Air War in Syria, won the best military aviation submission at the 2017 Paris Airshow.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 17 Mar 2019 14:32

Aditya G wrote:Coming back to PAF however - their revenge op was meant for optics but they did attack. Where does this leave Indian decision makers for the next operation?


If they have sense, then it leaves them considering the fact they have to recapitalize the Indian Armed forces on urgent basis & apparently they do have sense (Ref Jaitleys comment that we will have to raise the defence budget for the next 6-7 years). Because the next time around, if Modi & co, ask the IAF to undertake another such mission, there is no guarantee it wont escalate to an all out war, especially if the PA/PAF are forced to "save face" and do something even more stupid & we in turn, have to retaliate hard.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby mmasand » 17 Mar 2019 14:33

Singha wrote:so even the powered CALCM in middle with a light chassis (has to be light being a ALCM for range) can give in some 4m @ its terminal speed of around 800kmph.

I am not sure what the material is supposed to be be - soil, concrete or natural rock ( softer to hardest ).... the GBU43 MOP is listed as 61m so must be soil I guess ? these inert air carried bombs has the benefit of a very hard heavy shell which missiles like ALCM or brahmos cannot have luxury of.

muricans will use the B2 to drop it off.

neverthless the penetration figure of brahmos @ terminal speed of mach3 in vertical dive will be much more than CALCM which is 4m in chart above....should be able to punch through 5m thick sheet of concrete with rod mesh inside. ie the US funded premier level aircraft and weapons shelters in and around PAF bases can be tackled at standoff range. the nuclear weapons storage vaults seen in raj47 tweet will be under dense natural rock and need special weapons like MOP, infact MOP was developed to tackle similar constructions in Iran.

also if cruise missiles are accurate, they can target the entrances of such shelters, and they do carry a large warhead. in airbases there is usually a blast wall infront of such entrances to protect from cruise missiles though.


Garnails of the Strategic Plans Division ensure weapons rarely stay in their shelters year round, post 9/11 Unkil was struggling to figure out a count, and if required, how do we take them out. Abdul's are often moving mated warheads in the back of ambulances with little or no security through the by lanes of Heera Mandi.

https://www.nti.org/gsn/article/the-pentagons-secret-plans-to-secure-pakistans-nuclear-arsenal/

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Vikas » 17 Mar 2019 16:29

Why would Pakis comply to Barbaria's order and hand over Nukes to them and get themselves shot in the balls ?
I think like YouEss earlier and now Cheen, Even Kahdimein-harmein-Shareifen have their nuts in Paki pliers and hence they too keep paying them Jaziya. The one who has the bum is 'Da-Bomb'.
World is not so Black and White and Pakis haven't survived till now by playing nice.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Mollick.R » 17 Mar 2019 16:56

Apologies if posted earlier

Indian ‘Moles’ In Jaish Confirmed Targets For Post-Uri Strikes — Balakot Too?
Shiv AroorMar 17 2019 9 44 am

20 days after Indian Mirage 2000 jets flew into Pakistani airspace in a first-ever peacetime intrusion to conduct precision bombings of terror targets, new details are emerging through a persisting fog of the precise nature of the operation. While new details broke cover last week, adding layers to our understanding of the damage the air strikes caused at an isolated hilltop facility run by Pakistan’s Jaish-e-Mohammed terrorist group, questions have swirled about just how India managed to generate the intelligence confirming the facility as one worthy of hitting from the air.

In other words, a facility that was known to house a significant enough number of handlers, terrorist recruits andn ideologues, to justify a high-risk air strike from airspace peppered with and primed for anti-air defence.

The air strikes, cleared by the Indian government on the morning of February 15, took place 11 days later on February 26. As a fully intelligence-based operation, it was imperative that India chose targets that involved not just infrastructure, but the presence of a significant number of persons at any given time. But apart from the National Technical Research Organisation’s (NTRO) reported inputs, questions have remained over whether India had ground intelligence — crucial to such an attack. And whether it was this ground intelligence that shaped India’s choice of target, from among a handful of options — including Muzaffarabad and Chakoti.

First, some background. In September 2016, during the Indian Army special forces ‘surgical strikes’ in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, Indian moles (not of Indian nationality of course, in case there’s any confusion) in the Jaish-e-Mohammed had confirmed the terror launchpads as viable targets. This was revealed in a first-hand account (book plug alert!) of the mission by the officer who led the strikes in 2017’s India’s Most Fearless, by Livefist editor Shiv Aroor and Rahul Singh:

https://www.livefistdefence.com/2019/03/indian-moles-in-jaish-confirmed-targets-for-post-uri-strikes-balakot-too.html

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby VikasM » 17 Mar 2019 17:02

There was a news many many moons back that they filled their coffers and bought themselves a few of them bombs. The deal was terroristan will come to protect them, if it were to face such adversity. That was an assurance and no physical movement per say but situation might have dictated sort of safe keeping for second strike capability owing to Pukistans delivery means handicap.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 17 Mar 2019 18:38

And lets not forget the big picture, which NS has confirmed in her interaction the other day.

https://twitter.com/AdityaRajKaul/statu ... 8410576896

@AdityaRajKaul

Editor, Strategic Affairs & Internal Security @BTVI. Formerly - Senior Editor @Republic, @TimesNow Reported from Iraq, Israel, Palestine. Born in Kashmir.
New Delhi/Srinagar, India
facebook.com/kauladityaraj
Joined June 2009

Total 21mins air strike timeline break up in Pakistan and PoK:

Balakot
24 KM NW of Muzaffarabad : 3:45-3:53 am

Hit locations-Joint training camps of JeM, LeT & HM.

They had emptied Launchpads but not training camps.

Muzafarrabad
3:48 AM - 3:55 AM

Chakoti
3:58 AM- 4:04 AM
8:11 PM - 25 Feb 2019 from New Delhi, India


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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 17 Mar 2019 18:41

There have been persistent reports that other munitions were used. Not just SPICE etc.
The Balakot attacks used SPICE. What of the others. NS said "we will talk about them when the time comes". Bottomline, these attacks also likely occurred. Massive casualties for the jehadis in all likelihood, which is why Indian establishment thinks it has made its point. Something of the order of 10x casualty levels.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby manjgu » 17 Mar 2019 18:49

Why is Paki air space still closed ? looks they are spooked big time? are we missing anything??

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 17 Mar 2019 18:49

And dear Pakistanis. You were just visited by:

Image

Next time it will be

Image

and its brother

Image

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby khan » 17 Mar 2019 20:20

manjgu wrote:Why is Paki air space still closed ? looks they are spooked big time? are we missing anything??

They are scared of more air strikes. There are so many terrorists there, it is hard to drop anything there and miss hitting a terrorist :mrgreen:

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 17 Mar 2019 20:26

Cruel. Dara rahe ho bacche ko

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby saip » 17 Mar 2019 20:33

manjgu wrote:Why is Paki air space still closed ? looks they are spooked big time? are we missing anything??


Pakistan media (nation) is reporting a close call over Mumbai airspace between two aircraft because of high air traffic attributed to this closure.

I see it on ANI. Unintended consequences.

ANI
Last edited by saip on 17 Mar 2019 21:13, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 17 Mar 2019 20:43

Singha wrote:Cruel. Dara rahe ho bacche ko


Once the Su30 gets the Tejas style double Pylon, 2 EW pods, 4×ASRAAM, 6 Astra. That's 10 AAMs in beast mode.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 17 Mar 2019 20:55

Ani news on twitter says that vikramaditya deployedpoat pulwama with ins chakra for escort

Maybe thats why they vacated all their ports

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karthik S » 17 Mar 2019 20:57

Something doesn't seem right about just pakis getting spooked. It's been 20 days since the strike, both of us are avoiding Raj, Guj border. Anyone recalls when was the last time such thing happened?

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 17 Mar 2019 20:58

ANI
@ANI
Indian Navy: India had deployed the aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya and its battle group warships along with fighter aircraft in the Northern Arabian Sea as the tensions between India and Pakistan escalated

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 17 Mar 2019 20:59

Another tweet below that says ins chakra as submarine escort

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 17 Mar 2019 21:26

arshyam wrote:@Karan M saar and others, a few of you have been complaining about GoI's (lack of) information warfare capabilities, but with such 'doubting thomas' media houses, there is only so much the GoI can do to put its word out. This article itself is a case in point on the battle GoI has to fight - they have clearly shared a lot of details on the op so its version gets put out, but what do they get in return? A well-written article with a lot of juicy details (which convinces the aam reader of its authenticity) and also uses the same article to do equal-equal and downplay our own achievements. Since the details have convinced the aam reader of the article's authenticity, the reader could take note of the conspicuous omission of the F-16 takedown and conclude that it did not happen. Info warfare 101, by our own media, against us. Another ack thoo only.


Actually, this article is a perfect example of how GOI has made a dogs body of the entire post strike issue. They have remained unecessarily secretive. For what? Everyone and his aunt now knows we have SPICE. Till date there is no authoritative word from GOI on what was done and how. No need for ops stuff on flight tactics, etc, just a good outline would have sufficed. The IAF dossiers to GOI clearly detailing F-16 loss have been placed in some secret locker (for what?? to hide the one piece of evidence that would have put Pakistan on the spot?? To unecessarily make the IAFs claim appear speculative?? The geniuses in charge of that decision, less said the bette...). The amateurish way we handled the press briefing - junior MEA guy with a senior military guy sitting with nothing to do, has left many Kargil guys seething at the manner in which the whole conference was handled, because they remember the contrast. Look at this article itself. All sorts of claims, Popeye, Crystal Maze Mk2, SPICE, this, that kitchen sink.. and all this hawa hawaii is possible because Ma'am Sitharaman sits on stage and sagely remarks "one day you will know" and when is that "one day"? After her Govt loses votes because the FUD guys convince people clueless about such stuff that it was a flop, conspiracy etc & all sorts of well intentioned GOI insiders are busy leaking information to the Week, NDTV and all sorts of media houses which the good folks of BRF dislike for their channel's sectarian bias.. and it is these very same media houses being given "leaks" and retd. veterans who have little public support or ways to make themselves heard (rtd fighter pilots on social media for instance) are doing the job for the GOI...
I have to say, that as far as "Information Warfare" goes, the Govt has outsourced any and everything to its unpaid & unsung supporters while its politicians go around "speechifying".. all this may work for the average voter in Jhumri Talaiyya.. but if you really wish to take credit for your service's superb work & the risks they took, a far more professional media policy was essential.
One key factor of deterrence is to come across as competent, hard and strong. We squandered a huge opportunity with this strike in terms of properly leveraging the ability to have come across as having given Pak a proper thappad. Chalo, hopefully the one positive is we can continue to do more without world noticing Paki munna getting thrashed.
In Gen Bakshi's words, the bureaucracy has gathered together in its glory to ensure that we get no credit for what we have done. Their so called "restraint" is just a akin to the same strategic cowardice that was the hallmark of the Indian establishment for all these decades. The diffident manner in which the 2nd days press briefing was conducted also spoke volumes. Everyone was dancing around the fact the Pakistanis conducted an act of war, but we were not willing to go to war (we just want to escalate per our terms, fine). However, it could have been handled far better and more professionally even so. We are now, three weeks from the events that day & to this date, amateurs on this board are "sleuthing" to corroborate the IAFs claim. The IAF has provided the evidence, and thanks to some genius babu's advice that "we don't escalate the matter", MOD is sitting on that evidence!
I mean, are they nuts? Its one thing if they arent convinced with IAFs dossier because of its reliance on OSINT images and seek 3rd party validation etc, but to do what they have done so far is nuts. All that the world will go by (and it suits them) is that we lost a MiG-21 & no confirmatory evidence exists. So what of the IAFs entire effort to tear down a MiG-21 engine? No Govt would allow such doubts to stand regarding its capability. But after 4 years of seeing this self destructive, turn the other cheek, appear oh so moralistic, "policy" in action (with even an attempt by Smriti Irani to stop fake news, stopped) nothing that these guys do surprises me anymore. Even Gandhi would have shed pacifism by now after seeing the manner in which real events get downplayed, or actual achievements get spun negatively and these guys do nothing but sit and go tut-tut or give verbose interviews to local news channels which loathe them, yet they wont release the real evidence submitted to them, even redacted versions. Brilliant.


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