Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Narad · Post by **Narad** » 11 Apr 2019 00:25

mmasand wrote:ANI tweeted this evening about the Army Commanders Conference discussing 'ongoing operations' at the border. Does not specify LoC or IB.
https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1115946202657325057?s=09

Its going on since past 3 days. This is a bi annual event and largely chai biskoot in nature. Usual sensationalists are creating hype on social media.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 11 Apr 2019 01:04

ramana wrote:...
Purge = Military disciplining their own gangs.

Coup wont happen for many reasons.
Purge can and will happen.
...

Of whom, by whom? Who will be left standing afterwards-- careerists/mercantilist TSPA or jihadist TSPA? If jihadists have nukes, ISI, tanzeems with them... I would say it is a foregone conclusion, unless the balance is shifted by massive external intervention that no country has an appetite for.

saip · Post by **saip** » 11 Apr 2019 01:21

After 45 days they cleanedup enough to take some journalists and diplomats to Balakot. It is in dgISPR twitter link.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 11 Apr 2019 01:26

saip wrote:After 45 days they cleanedup enough to take some journalists and diplomats to Balakot. It is in dgISPR twitter link.

They are timing it with I dian elections, shows how worried they are of the present dispensation

rajsunder · Post by **rajsunder** » 11 Apr 2019 02:22

Youtube video of BBC visiting balakot madrasa.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 11 Apr 2019 02:47

The fact that they took 45 days to take people on a tour is virtually damming proof that the attack took place, and hit it's target with devastating effect! If IAF had really hit 'trees' as they say, knowing ISPR they would have had journalists (especially foreign ones) at the site within hours.

Primus · Post by **Primus** » 11 Apr 2019 03:11

Entirely fraudulent exercise by the Pakis. From the BBC's own man there, it is obvious they were not allowed to speak to anyone - would have been very easy to ask the youngest of the kids how long they've been studying there! The explanation for the delay rings hollow and false - no reason given at all other than 'things were moving too fast hence the delay' - which is nonsense. The interior of the madarsa hall which is the only part shown to the journalists (don't know if the other buildings were open for inspection) looks brand new to me - look at the shining floors and the wooden paneling on the walls - all look new. The maximum damage would have been on the floor and the lower part of the walls and these areas look freshly redone and painted. Any madrasa of this sort in a poor location would have paint peeling off the walls, smudges and smoke marks on the pillars and ceilings, dirt and garbage in the corners. This place is shiny and clean. Compare it with the pillars on the outside which do show some signs of age. Totally fake! What else would one expect of the ISPR?

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 11 Apr 2019 03:30

Shows kangrez has some strong links here [personal opinion, IMHO onree]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-478 ... ow_twitter

saip · Post by **saip** » 11 Apr 2019 07:34

From the look of it, it appears there is a school running in that place. Do they really expect us to believe that? Let us say it is true. What would have happened? Pakistan would have taken every diplomat in Islummabad and every Journalist in Pakistan and shown it. Why? To tell the whole world how inhumane India is targeting innocent children just like the atrocities it is committing in J&K. It would have fired off dossiers after dossiers with glossy pictures of children to everyone they can think of. They would have done this very next day. They would have claimed only Allah saved the lives of these innocent children as Indian bombs missed.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Apr 2019 07:41

Another self goal by ispr

Ravi Karumanchiri · Post by **Ravi Karumanchiri** » 11 Apr 2019 12:03

So far, by my count, I am the only one to say coup within a month; except for Vips who might envision something coup-like within a 3-6 months timeframe. As a practical matter: If it comes-off within two months, I'll still feel like I won this (non) bet, because I'll have guessed closer to the date. If the coup comes-off within a 2-7 months window from yesterday; Vips will have dibs on calling himself the winner. In fairness, though, Vips's prize should be less than mine would have been, given his window of opportunity was 2.5 times larger than the one I specified.

All the rest of you who've counseled, no-coup -- where do you find your faith in IK? He's on the verge of doing something truly blasphemous, and in the TSP, such a dangerous thing can turn someone's stakes upside-down in a heartbeat. [That house of cards is set to crumble. Vips' guess of 3-6 months assumes waaay more runway than they have, financially. I truly don't know where anyone on BRF finds anything resembling longer-term faith in that regime. His (IK's) only purpose, was to be a nice face to win funding. But my Parisian chaiwallah-friend slipped a note in with the box of biskoot I received parcel-post. It read the FATF is going to be unimpressed with the nothing being done by the TSP; and that blacklisting will make the IMF bailout an impossibility. The same goes for the WB. Amir Khan won't do it; and so the Chinese will have less of a reason themselves.

It's beyond IK to gear-up for a fight with Iran; which is the tasking for PAF flyers, clear-though to the immediate short term. If IK can't raise money, and won't champion a war with Iran, what will he be good for? Fig leaf, onleeee? I don't see it -- not when he's de facto admitting to terrorists in the countryside, and worse-yet, perhaps giving some people the notion that they are to be dispensed with.

I suppose, we shall see.

Vips wrote:Pak army will not need to take any assertive or overt action to do a coup. They just have to wait another 3-6 months when the full effect of the IMF mandated budget measures will be felt. The AOA baying abduls/ayeshas on the street will create the perfect condition for the jernails to do a soft coup.

srin · Post by **srin** » 11 Apr 2019 12:13

^^^ The pre-existing condition for a coup to happen is that the power must be vested in the civilian authority, and post-coup, the power is transferred to the military. By that logic, there is no possibility of coup in Bakistan, because despite the figurehead they call as "PM" , the power is in Pindi. The policies are made in Pindi. Given that the generals control the judiciary (they learnt from Musharraf's big mistake IMO), any inconvenient politician will be trialled and jailed/exiled.

The puppet PM is to convince useful idiots on this side of border to hold candle light marches for peace and to convince them that "prosperous pakistan is in India's interest" and other BS like that.

The generals are already in power. Coup has already happened.

Ravi Karumanchiri · Post by **Ravi Karumanchiri** » 11 Apr 2019 12:32

^^^^^^^^^^^
srin, All that you say is true. 1008% true.

But I think you are forgetting about the need to scapegoat someone for the impending economic disaster and attendant collapse of order.

Fault will need to fall somewhere, no?
Where can this fault, conceivably fall?

There is only one place, by my estimation, and that is on IK.

Or alternatively, his exit could be melo-dramatized somehow captivating, to distract as would a scapegoat. But the impulse is there (for a coup).

[It's not too late to place your bets, folks.

]

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 11 Apr 2019 14:20

I like what Ravi is saying about the coup. Jernails were always incharge of Pak. Then why did they move in during Bhutto and Navaz.
It all depends upon how crazy or ambitious, the top yahoo is and how much space Civvies are willing to cede to Army. Bajwa is not the coup type and immy is still following GHQ script.

I still am though in no hard coup camp. Immy will run the govt for 2-3 years before things go south for him too.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 11 Apr 2019 14:25

saip wrote:From the look of it, it appears there is a school running in that place. Do they really expect us to believe that? Let us say it is true. What would have happened? Pakistan would have taken every diplomat in Islummabad and every Journalist in Pakistan and shown it. Why? To tell the whole world how inhumane India is targeting innocent children just like the atrocities it is committing in J&K. It would have fired off dossiers after dossiers with glossy pictures of children to everyone they can think of. They would have done this very next day. They would have claimed only Allah saved the lives of these innocent children as Indian bombs missed.

if there was a school running then it would have reached UNHCR by now

gunnvant · Post by **gunnvant** » 11 Apr 2019 17:27

Admins, should we think of closing this thread?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Apr 2019 19:05

gunnvant wrote:Admins, should we think of closing this thread?

I was think so the same. The thread has served its topical purpose.
Now its just a place holder for any thought relevant or not.

BTW got to know Balakot got a real plastering.
Retired strike pilots are happy at how it went.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Apr 2019 11:30

Hindustan Times has after action lessons learned after Balakot strike.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... uIfNK.html

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Apr 2019 11:30

Please discuss.

Hari Nair · Post by **Hari Nair** » 25 Apr 2019 11:49

ramana wrote:Please discuss.

Its good that the IAF has given a critical de-brief of the mission, including the fact that had the Crystal Maze PGMs been released, we would have got the BDA real-time. https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/newsindi ... spartanntp

Here, its an implicit recognition of the need to maintain the visibility of the strike and also project it as such.

That's the difference between that clown Maj Gen Ghafoor's ISPR with his wild claims, his back and forth tracking, and us. In the end its all about serious professionalism, which includes a thorough and critical debrief.

Good also to know that they have acknowledged need to improve in media management. In other countries, the media aspects of the op are also planned and exectued along with the op in the required phases. We need to get serious on this front as well.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 25 Apr 2019 12:24

I think the next step to get Miltary targets and shoot down PAf aircraft preferably a few over our territory.

shaun · Post by **shaun** » 25 Apr 2019 12:28

BDA was done and stood up to their expectations. They will not reveal ,how they reached to the conclusion that the pgms indeed hit bullseye.

Hari Nair · Post by **Hari Nair** » 25 Apr 2019 12:37

shaun wrote:BDA was done and stood up to their expectations. They will not reveal ,how they reached to the conclusion that the pgms indeed hit bullseye.

Not really, the primary planned method for the BDA to enable high visibility / high media impact feeds did not go through. The secondary means were then used.

shaun · Post by **shaun** » 25 Apr 2019 12:39

Hari Nair wrote:
shaun wrote:BDA was done and stood up to their expectations. They will not reveal ,how they reached to the conclusion that the pgms indeed hit bullseye.

Not really, the primary planned method for the BDA to enable high visibility / high media impact feeds did not go through. The secondary means were then used.

So it's 2nd or 3rd party assessment ?

Hari Nair · Post by **Hari Nair** » 25 Apr 2019 12:44

shaun wrote:
Hari Nair wrote:
Not really, the primary planned method for the BDA to enable high visibility / high media impact feeds did not go through. The secondary means were then used.
So it's 2nd or 3rd party assessment ?

We cannot comment or speculate on what is not released in the press. However, it is known that we have adequate in-house capability for such purposes.

gaurav.p · Post by **gaurav.p** » 25 Apr 2019 12:53

Looking ahead and taking the lessons from the Balakot strike, IAF wants more “technological asymmetry” to be able to “penetrate the enemy airspace at will”, according to the report. It will be looking at better air defence capabilities. The induction of new platforms such as the Russian made S-400 surface to air anti-aircraft missile systems will fill part of the gap

So the S400 will have offensive roles to facilitate air raids?

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 25 Apr 2019 13:32

GauravP, have said this before.. S-400 will be used to push the Paki AEW&Cs back, so they can't look into Indian airspace.. they become totally defensive systems and even there, they will be in restricted flight patterns.

Now I have further confirmation.
https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comme ... TNixkHFZoU

AM Anil Chopra

The observations on the S-400 and the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS), too, need clarity. The S-400 would be used in an offensive deployment mode. Besides other objectives, it would deny ‘trans-frontier visibility’ to the PAF by pushing its AWACS (airborne warning and control system) and AEW&C (airborne early warning and control) platforms far back from the IB/LoC to prevent them from ‘looking through’ into the Indian airspace. Ballistic Missile defence is not going to be the responsibility of the NASAMS. Open sources indicate that this would be done by the ‘Programme AD’ (PAD), announced back in 2012.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 25 Apr 2019 13:34

Hari Nair wrote:
ramana wrote:Please discuss.
Its good that the IAF has given a critical de-brief of the mission, including the fact that had the Crystal Maze PGMs been released, we would have got the BDA real-time. https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/newsindi ... spartanntp

Here, its an implicit recognition of the need to maintain the visibility of the strike and also project it as such.

That's the difference between that clown Maj Gen Ghafoor's ISPR with his wild claims, his back and forth tracking, and us. In the end its all about serious professionalism, which includes a thorough and critical debrief.

Good also to know that they have acknowledged need to improve in media management. In other countries, the media aspects of the op are also planned and exectued along with the op in the required phases. We need to get serious on this front as well.

Well said.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 25 Apr 2019 13:36

I hope using Balakot as the rationale, IAF gets the GOI to invest even more in EW and Su-30 upgrades. Sometimes, you have to strike the iron when it is hot.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 25 Apr 2019 13:45

interesting to note acknowledgement that home made weapons integration didn't work completely and that OEMs need to be involved. whilst this is clearly logically right, also highlights the problems of relying on foreign OEMs

ability to have taken images of the bombs hitting the targets would have really helped, but i guess that is very very difficult in contested/unsecured airspace

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 25 Apr 2019 14:23

Lalmohan wrote:interesting to note acknowledgement that home made weapons integration didn't work completely and that OEMs need to be involved. whilst this is clearly logically right, also highlights the problems of relying on foreign OEMs

ability to have taken images of the bombs hitting the targets would have really helped, but i guess that is very very difficult in contested/unsecured airspace

The problem is we integrate to save cost and also hide proprietary information from OEMs. The latter problem won't go away.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 25 Apr 2019 14:28

Now this part is likely referring to the homegrown integration part:

One PGM, sources said, did not leave the Mirage 2000 aircraft because it is a 35-year old legacy aircraft and there was drift in the inertial navigation system. It meant that there was a mismatch between the location seen by the PGM and the aircraft at the point of the delivery of the PGM, which led to it not being fired from the aircraft.

Seems to be more of a transfer alignment, hardware issue. The 35 years part, means this was a non upgraded Mirage 2000 whose systems had been integrated with SPICE 2000 by the IAF's SDI and their testing did not pick this issue up.

Could merely be a one time hardware fault because if it was a problem, other SPICEs may not have fired (unlikely this was the only non upg Mirage).
Anyways, want OEM involvement to ensure the issue never arises at all, but likely Dassault may charge an arm and a leg for such an effort making 3rd party weapons integration cost prohibitive.

Which is why most other AFs don't do it either. I would still support we continue on our own path, invest more in SDI capability, involving OEM if and only necessary because otherwise we lose our flexibility.

Our Mirage 2000s fire Israeli, Indian, Spanish munitions while using Israel optics. Wont be the case if we go to Dassault for every thing.

Dileep · Post by **Dileep** » 25 Apr 2019 15:29

The Balakot event has kicked off a lot of momentum into IAF. We were discussing a simple 'support infra' project at a BRD, and the Sqn Ldr mentioned that a lot of action is going on to improve things, and expect faster responses and tighter schedules.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 25 Apr 2019 15:51

anyone know if the old mirages have mechanical gyros or ring laser gyros?
i am guessing upgrades have ring laser

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 25 Apr 2019 16:22

Mech and likely no GPS Update either, hence the drift!!

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 25 Apr 2019 16:23

Dileep wrote:The Balakot event has kicked off a lot of momentum into IAF. We were discussing a simple 'support infra' project at a BRD, and the Sqn Ldr mentioned that a lot of action is going on to improve things, and expect faster responses and tighter schedules.

Great news.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 25 Apr 2019 16:32

The desi GPS not integrated yet? Can it be spoof proof, @ some encrypted signal

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 25 Apr 2019 18:07

They would carry a separate device affixed to the dash etc on the non upgraded Mirages. The upgrades would have the latest kit.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 25 Apr 2019 19:58

Looking ahead and taking the lessons from the Balakot strike, IAF wants more “technological asymmetry” to be able to “penetrate the enemy airspace at will”, according to the report. It will be looking at better air defence capabilities. The induction of new platforms such as the Russian made S-400 surface to air anti-aircraft missile systems will fill part of the gap

Request for F-35 coming in 3.. 2..

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Apr 2019 20:00

if not the B21 raider