Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 11 May 2019 22:05

They are only worried about artillery fire. They were happy to use ssg and fire bullets. Each artillery fire fired from paki side would mean one paki family goes without food for a week.

Abhibhushan · Post by **Abhibhushan** » 13 May 2019 00:17

Some bits of chatter from a brass-heavy evening:

The first draft of op Balakot dates back to 2001.

It had been re-looked at and revised many times to incorporate new weapons sensors platforms intelligence and techniques as and when these became available. The IAF always keeps it’s contingency plans updated relevant and in a useable state. Thus, a useable plan was available when the government authorised its activation. The very complex plan was simply executed in a professional manner.

Rest is now history.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 13 May 2019 01:35

Brilliant gem / trivia sir.

Also, any similar snippets available regarding the IAF vs PAF matchup on the next day? How the IAF felt it had fared vis a vis the PAF.

Aditya G · Post by **Aditya G** » 13 May 2019 13:01

CAS ACM dhanoa was himself part of planning post J&K Assembly bombing

Abhibhushan wrote:Some bits of chatter from a brass-heavy evening:

The first draft of op Balakot dates back to 2001.

It had been re-looked at and revised many times to incorporate new weapons sensors platforms intelligence and techniques as and when these became available. The IAF always keeps it’s contingency plans updated relevant and in a useable state. Thus, a useable plan was available when the government authorised its activation. The very complex plan was simply executed in a professional manner.

Rest is now history.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 13 May 2019 16:34

kvraghav wrote:They are only worried about artillery fire. They were happy to use ssg and fire bullets. Each artillery fire fired from paki side would mean one paki family goes without food for a week.

it may also mean one less from their war reserves. With their current state of economy, i doubt they can sustain a long scale arty deployment without really exhausting and any replacement. If things remain the same in Afghanistan (which is a big if) or dont turn out to be a dole for them, a Parakram style deployment will be really helpful to cause them some serious damage without militarily and economically

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 13 May 2019 19:46

KaranM, We will know when appropriate. Not before. Still war going on.
Abhibhushan saar
Thanks.
Kind of confirms that Balakot is HVT to be on IAF radar.

UB kindly note.

aditp · Post by **aditp** » 13 May 2019 21:07

Dreams...wet dreams of Pakis

https://youtu.be/icV2qnxgvmA

tsarkar · Post by **tsarkar** » 14 May 2019 00:15

Abhibhushan wrote:Some bits of chatter from a brass-heavy evening:

The first draft of op Balakot dates back to 2001.

It had been re-looked at and revised many times to incorporate new weapons sensors platforms intelligence and techniques as and when these became available. The IAF always keeps it’s contingency plans updated relevant and in a useable state. Thus, a useable plan was available when the government authorised its activation. The very complex plan was simply executed in a professional manner.

Rest is now history.

This also exposes the lie of Manmohan Singh Govt that IAF under ACM Fali Homi Major didn’t have/present any options after 26/11/2008 Mumbai Terror Attack.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 14 May 2019 01:51

ramana wrote: Kind of confirms that Balakot is HVT to be on IAF radar. UB kindly note.

Noted, thx. I think the term "juicy target" used by IAF in the immediate report of "mission accomplished" takes on new significance: there was a wonderful convergence of targets in a HVT, meriting a GREAT dual-purpose use of expensive weaponry. SUCH tactical brilliance by the PA in evacuating the terrorists from Yellow Sea to Hilltop.

I was feeling bad at the expenditure of 6 good sophisicated weapons on 700 pieces of trash, but now it seems that the trash-incineration was just a bonus. **NOW*** I see why it took 5 weeks for the cleanup b4 they brough phoren papparazzi there.
Curious, come to think of it, there has been NO bheshtern

We saw Balakot and there is nothing there

. I think the Reuters boobs have realized that they are cast as boobs.

Ravi Karumanchiri · Post by **Ravi Karumanchiri** » 14 May 2019 04:40

The Indian Air Force, Sub-Conventional operations and Balakot: A practitioner’s perspective

Arjun Subramaniam

ABSTRACT
India’s employment of offensive air power in sub-conventional operations has evolved rather slowly for several reasons, primary of which is the quest for restraint in the application of force against internal fissures. There is also a popular reluctance to recognise the capabilities of air power in pursuing counter-insurgency, counter-terrorism and counter-infiltration operations. This brief explores the evolution of a doctrinal clarity for the Indian Air Force (IAF) in the sub-conventional domain. It examines such shift in the context of the recent Balakot strikes and the consequent aerial engagement between the IAF and the Pakistani Air Force. The brief concludes with an outline of the key faultlines within the IAF, and the capability gaps that need to be filled for the force to stay relevant across its full spectrum of operations.

>> It was creditable that two Mirage-2000s, two Sukhoi-30 MKIs and four MiG-21 Bisons managed to deter a much larger package that comprised 11 F-16s and 13 other fighters (possibly a combination of JF-17s, Mirage Vs & Mirage-IIIs). Despite the strong claim, supported by evidence, of shooting down a PAF F-16 by an IAF MiG-21 Bison in exchange for the loss of the latter,[xxi] it is important to note why the IAF was hesitant to commit more Air Superiority Fighters (ASFs) to shrink the numerical disadvantage. The IAF was expecting a riposte from the morning of 26 February and the sheer lack of numbers meant that there would be windows of recycling airborne assets, which the PAF seems to have exploited.[xxii] It is also possible that the inherent superiority of the AIM-120 AMRAAM carried by the F-16 as compared to the Beyond Visual Range (BVR) missiles carried by the SU-30 MKI and Mirage-2000s kept the IAF fighters from manoeuvring more aggressively. Despite these systemic limitations, some aggressive flying by Wing Commander Abhinandan allowed him to exploit a fleeting opportunity and press-on with a Close Combat Missile launch on an F-16 that appeared in his visual bubble. Unfortunately, his pursuit took him across the Line of Control and after having launched his R-73 and turning east to head for home, he was likely to have been shot down by an AMRAAM fired from an F-16 that could have been loitering in depth.[xxiii]

>> Deception was an intrinsic element of both IAF and PAF strategies during the Balakot strike and the aerial engagement the next morning.[xxiv] However, the IAF deception plan on 26 February was operationally more effective as it drew out PAF interceptors in the wrong direction and masked the actual strike package heading for Balakot.

>> The Balakot operation has provided an opportunity for subsequent intelligence-driven punitive operations that exploit the reach, flexibility and precision offered by offensive air power. These operations, however, will have to be carefully calibrated and executed with restraint. Joint operations would demand capabilities more enabling than just offensive air power and include the entire range of special operations missions like insertion, fire support, and Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR) missions.

>> The current operational landscape reveals that despite severe constraints in capability, the IAF has worked hard to reinvent itself according to the emerging requirements of the times, fusing every new acquisition, capability or upgrade into its operational processes. The opportunity to train with partner air forces like the USAF, French Air Force (FAF), Royal Air Force (RAF), Singapore Air Force (SAF) and learn from their experiences have no doubt added value. The missions that were flown during Exercise Gagan Shakti in April 2018[xxxi] have prepared the IAF for high-tempo combat operations in limited conflicts and diverse operational environments across the spectrum of conflict. In that context, it is not hard to comprehend Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to go with air strikes as the preferred option for punitive action following the Pulwama terror attack.

The full strategic impact of the Balakot strikes will unfold only after the Indian general elections and an operational evaluation of cross-border infiltrations is conducted as the winter snows melt in the mountains along the LoC. Yet, the UN blacklisting of Maulana Masood Azhar is an early indicator of the responsiveness of the larger global community to India’s security concerns.[xxxii] The credibility of India’s intent, resolve and consistency in resorting to coercive, punitive, preventive or pre-emptive use of force in crisis situations, particularly involving Pakistan and terror networks, will now be watched closely by India’s strategic partners and adversaries as a measure of the effectiveness of Indian statecraft. [Added camment: CLEAR ACKNOWLEDGEMENT THAT WE'RE NOW OPERATING UNDER A NEW PARADIGM/strategic regime -- 'The Balakot Doctrine' doesn't sound right. There needs to be a new encapsulating term that speaks to audiences across oceans.]

About the Author
Arjun Subramaniam is a recently retired Air Vice Marshal from the Indian Air Force. A fighter pilot with extensive command, staff and instructional assignments, he holds a PhD in defence and strategic studies and has authored three books, including the much acclaimed India’s Wars: A Military History 1947-197f. After completing a six-month stint as a visiting fellow at The Harvard Asia Center, he is currently a Visiting Fellow at the Oxford University’s Changing Character of War programme. A regular strategic affairs columnist, he is also a Senior Non-Resident Fellow at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies at Washington DC.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 14 May 2019 07:00

WTH is an aamabdul that "wanders in depth"?

Sanatanan · Post by **Sanatanan** » 14 May 2019 08:19

WILL INDIA AND PAKISTAN BE ABLE TO STEP BACK FROM NUCLEAR DANGER?
https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive ... ar-danger/

Michael Krepon of Indo-US Nuclear Deal fame (as a commentator if not as an interlocutor), writing in "Arms Control Wonk" (May 13, 2019) says ~~in the last but one paragraph~~ towards the end of the article (font highlight, mine)

. . . . .
The dynamics of violence are also changing after the explosion at Pulwama and the ineffectual Indian response at Balakot in February of this year.
. . . .

Americans it seems, continue to decry Indian response at Balakot.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 14 May 2019 09:16

Sanatanan wrote:WILL INDIA AND PAKISTAN BE ABLE TO STEP BACK FROM NUCLEAR DANGER?
https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive ... ar-danger/

Michael Krepon of Indo-US Nuclear Deal fame (as a commentator if not as an interlocutor), writing in "Arms Control Wonk" (May 13, 2019) says ~~in the last but one paragraph~~ towards the end of the article (font highlight, mine)

. . . . .
The dynamics of violence are also changing after the explosion at Pulwama and the ineffectual Indian response at Balakot in February of this year.
. . . .
Americans it seems, continue to decry Indian response at Balakot.

Look at this the other way, they might want an "effectual" response from India. Which means pindi goes poof!

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 14 May 2019 09:24

Krepon is merely parroting a line he heard from pakistan: Any effort of IAF, that leaves PAF with atleast one plane, is considered ineffectual and a win for pakis

And these folks gets serious funding from DC for this sort of drivel that does not even give a cursory acknowledgement that pakis' four decade long "business as usual" has changed! Darn good game.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 14 May 2019 09:36

vimal wrote:
Sanatanan wrote:WILL INDIA AND PAKISTAN BE ABLE TO STEP BACK FROM NUCLEAR DANGER?
https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive ... ar-danger/

Michael Krepon of Indo-US Nuclear Deal fame (as a commentator if not as an interlocutor), writing in "Arms Control Wonk" (May 13, 2019) says ~~in the last but one paragraph~~ towards the end of the article (font highlight, mine)

Americans it seems, continue to decry Indian response at Balakot.
Look at this the other way, they might want an "effectual" response from India. Which means pindi goes poof!

"Nuclear danger"? What nuclear danger? IAF struck within Pakistan. No one even mentioned "nuclear" even once.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 14 May 2019 13:54

pakistan took control of the media narrative early and managed to implant their version into everyone's minds. by the time the more nuanced Indian version came out, the world had lost interest. as far as the world heard it - there were airstrikes, next day the Indians lost 2 planes, some trees got knocked down. 24 hrs later it was back to usual local fare and who really cares...

lesson there for next time

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 14 May 2019 14:20

so finally NPAs are back in business

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 14 May 2019 15:05

As far most people int he world there is some bias against India, Pakistan track record of lies is ignored, fact that Wing Commander was paraded before media was enough for them. The Western world would rather ignore a Mig 21 shot down the F-16, otherwise there was no other reason for the Mig 21 to be on that side of the LOC, the various videos, Pakistani behavior, IAF reiterating the claim is all ignored conveniently. they would rather prefer a weak and timid India.

chola · Post by **chola** » 14 May 2019 15:27

Aditya_V wrote:As far most people int he world there is some bias against India, Pakistan track record of lies is ignored, fact that Wing Commander was paraded before media was enough for them. The Western world would rather ignore a Mig 21 shot down the F-16, otherwise there was no other reason for the Mig 21 to be on that side of the LOC, the various videos, Pakistani behavior, IAF reiterating the claim is all ignored conveniently. they would rather prefer a weak and timid India.

Eh, with the kind of tech and number superiority we had, we really didn't do what we could have done. We could have massed a hundred MKIs and went into Pakiland the moment we found out they had escalated by attempting to hit our army.

We let a smaller air force gained local superiority in numbers and then left it at that. When we should have reminded them that we are the far superior air force by pressing massive numbers into the equation and genuinely attempting to remove their sole relevant systems in the F-16s.

Abhi's capture might have stayed our hands but we can't complain about the narrative when we did not push our advantages. We gave the pukes a floor to stand on instead of wiping them off the f-ing stage. This is where our dharmic nature took over. Unkil, the Israelis and the other abrahamic goras would have gone in with overwhelming numbers and destruction that left no doubt of the narrative.

We always poohed poohed the US beating up overmatched muzzie sh1tholes but here we faced an overmatched sh!thole in Pakiland and refused to use our numbers. So who can we blame for that?

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 14 May 2019 15:57

^^^ i would suggest that we were testing the escalation ladder and we weren't sure if Pakistan would fold or call the bluff on the red lines
you have to remember that every time a pakistani general has spoken at a western think tank lecture in the past decade, they have always said that their red lines are everywhere and on hair trigger - any aggression (even minute) will be met with immediate nuclear retaliation. so what has happened is that we have established a new rung on the ladder. if in future there is an Indian Counter Strike - no one will be too bothered.

LakshmanPST · Post by **LakshmanPST** » 14 May 2019 16:29

IMO, what India did is the right approach, provided we continue to carry on more such strikes both by land and air...
1) We attack a terrorist facility in Pak...
2) See if Pak attacks us back (if they don't attack go to Step 1)...
3) We only defend the Pak attack...
4) Won't escalate it further until the Pak's attack was a major attack...
5) Repeat from step 1 again...
-
This approach, provided we do it consistently, is the right approach... We get to attack Terrorist infra in Pak...
If they don't respond, they lose H&D domestically and internationally... If they escalate too much, they risk war...
By doing this, we are basically leaving the ball of escalating it to full blown war in Pak's court...

Pak has to limit their response like that of Feb 27th, coz. full blown war will screw them...
-
On Indian side, we should be able to defend such localised air superiority attacks and skirmishes, like the one done by Pak on Feb 27th...
And most importantly try to avoid incidents like Abhinandan's capture which gives Pak narrative advantage...
----
Once again, we should be able to do it repeatedly and consistently, limiting our attacks to official non-military Terrorist infrastructure only...

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 14 May 2019 16:59

All this talk is because Paki H-4 Bombs missed and F-16's which launched LGB's were spoofed and that 1 lucky tree which got in the way of Brigade HQ. Pakis don't think they escalate and wait for the world to force India to descalate. They can hide losses, If only the Mig 21 Bison did not go down, the whole scenario would have looked much better

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 14 May 2019 17:46

^^^ absolutely, the loss of the Mig21 created an opportunity for the paks. and they had help from their friends in unkil_land re the media messaging

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 14 May 2019 17:53

A small question on Weapons Importing: Is there an icon for lungi-shivering that can be imported and induced into the BRF Forces? Someone pls post the code to do that instead. Thx.

Nikhil T · Post by **Nikhil T** » 15 May 2019 00:15

Aditya_V wrote:As far most people int he world there is some bias against India, Pakistan track record of lies is ignored, fact that Wing Commander was paraded before media was enough for them. The Western world would rather ignore a Mig 21 shot down the F-16, otherwise there was no other reason for the Mig 21 to be on that side of the LOC, the various videos, Pakistani behavior, IAF reiterating the claim is all ignored conveniently. they would rather prefer a weak and timid India.

Not sure there's any bias here. For an independent observer, there was a MiG-21 down that was acknowledged by both sides, so they report it as a fact. Then there are conflicting accounts on a F-16 being shot down, so they report this as 'he said, she said'. Unless we choose to publish proof, it will remain the same. The same thing occurred after the IA surgical strikes - it was reported as 'he said, she said' by most independent observers. This shouldn't be a surprise.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 15 May 2019 01:07

Pakistan's lies are ignored when it is convenient for the powers-that-be to do so. In Balakot, it was wholly an Indo-Pak issue. And therefore, the Pak version will be taken as fact. Just imagine if it was the US (or one of her poodles) that shot down the F-16. Forget even the wreckage or evidence, the very statement will be taken as fact.

Admitting the shooting down of a F-16 will blow a serious dent to LM's ability to sell the bird to other nations. The very thought that a third generation, 1950s-designed, SDRE piloted Soviet aircraft, could shoot down a fourth generation TFTA piloted American aircraft is sacrilegious. The PAF has already received a replacement F-16 by now to make up for the loss.

China happens to be the common enemy of India, the US (and her poodles). Pakistan not so much. Thus the geopolitical doublespeak. Lesson to learn for India.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 15 May 2019 01:20

Rakesh, LM is in bijnej to make money, hain? I don't see where the replacement would come from, except maybe from Nevada scrap heap. Minus engines, avionics, landing gear. Will look great with green paint from GoogleMaps satellite, parked at Sargodha.

They could use a working one as a Free Sample to say, the Tanzanian Air Force.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 May 2019 01:20

Krepon can crapon regardless, but nuke redlines are removed from TSP.
That is the big result of Balakot.
And that's what matters.
All this is water under the bridge.

Rakesh, I want you to read the Cardinal's reaction to the Three musketeers executing Milady.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 15 May 2019 02:05

UlanBatori wrote:Rakesh, LM is in bijnej to make money, hain? I don't see where the replacement would come from, except maybe from Nevada scrap heap. Minus engines, avionics, landing gear. Will look great with green paint from GoogleMaps satellite, parked at Sargodha.

They could use a working one as a Free Sample to say, the Tanzanian Air Force.

UB-ji, I found this database on un-used F-16s....

Stored F-16 Aircraft at boneyards and storage facilities
http://www.f-16.net/aircraft-database/F ... -aircraft/

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 15 May 2019 02:18

^ I count 31 for PAF. Wonder what this means. Boneyard? Then how many do they have left to use with camel-Drive?

Ravi Karumanchiri · Post by **Ravi Karumanchiri** » 15 May 2019 02:40

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 15 May 2019 02:41

ramana wrote:Krepon can crapon regardless, but nuke redlines are removed from TSP.
That is the big result of Balakot.
And that's what matters.
All this is water under the bridge.

Rakesh, I want you to read the Cardinal's reaction to the Three musketeers executing Milady.

I will Ramana-ji. And you are the correct about the red lines. As you say, that is what matters.

VikramA · Post by **VikramA** » 15 May 2019 09:59

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEYoNvktJLQ

This Times now report dated 12 may says Pakis have deployed 300 MBTs in chicken neck area opposite jammu. I think that is the entirety of their famous 1st armoured division

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 15 May 2019 10:39

Make a nice target rich environment for the SFW we got from the US.

BTW is it just me, or the Paki troops are beginning to look more and more stunted, scrawny and short in recent years. They are beginning to look malnourished.

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 15 May 2019 12:11

VikramA wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEYoNvktJLQ

This Times now report dated 12 may says Pakis have deployed 300 MBTs in chicken neck area opposite jammu. I think that is the entirety of their famous 1st armoured division

Comes at a good time, we are getting our first batch of Apaches.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 15 May 2019 13:59

TSP claiming victory in their press - TSPA putting out news that GOI asked for TSPA to withdraw artillery from LoC. Interesting how both sides claiming victory.

If GOI did ask for artillery to be moved back and TSPA offered withdrawal of SSG - this shows GOI is seeking total withdrawal of TSPA offensive capability. i.e. no terrorists, no BATs, no artillery is the confidence building measure that GOI is after.

The verification process will be satellite images, recon patrols at border and our sensors detecting terrorists crossing border once snow melts.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 15 May 2019 14:36

VikramA wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEYoNvktJLQ

This Times now report dated 12 may says Pakis have deployed 300 MBTs in chicken neck area opposite jammu. I think that is the entirety of their famous 1st armoured division

if not anything this engagement will bring in wear and tear for them. Make it more difficult for beggars to replace with IMF doles

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 15 May 2019 23:34

Don't we have few hundred CBU -105 to welcome these tanks?

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 16 May 2019 03:37

Sanatanan wrote:WILL INDIA AND PAKISTAN BE ABLE TO STEP BACK FROM NUCLEAR DANGER?
https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive ... ar-danger/

Michael Krepon of Indo-US Nuclear Deal fame (as a commentator if not as an interlocutor), writing in "Arms Control Wonk" (May 13, 2019) says ~~in the last but one paragraph~~ towards the end of the article (font highlight, mine)

. . . . .
The dynamics of violence are also changing after the explosion at Pulwama and the ineffectual Indian response at Balakot in February of this year.
. . . .
Americans it seems, continue to decry Indian response at Balakot.

Krepon is one guy barking in the wilderness. He is not 'The Americans'. Look at the statements from the state dept. etc. for official responses. They are what matter.

Krepon etc. are a kind of American 'non state actors'..

Sometimes what they say is important, other times, not so much.

LakshmanPST · Post by **LakshmanPST** » 18 May 2019 21:52

https://www.aninews.in/news/national/ge ... 518195107/

Pakistan moved all its F16s from their main bases in Sargodha, Punjab and Sindh and has deployed them at their satellite air fields in a scattered manner.