Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby ramana » 02 Jun 2019 04:59

https://www.dawn.com/news/1485843 Deterrence didn’t fail during stand-off with India: officials
ISLAMABAD: Senior officials insist that deterrence did not fail during the military confrontation between India and Pakistan in the aftermath of the Pulwama incident.wo senior officials — Director General Arms Control and Disarmament Affairs, Strategic Plans Division (SPD) Brig Zahir Kazmi, and Director General Arms Control and Disarmament, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kamran Akhtar — told journalists at an interaction hosted by the Islamabad Policy Institute (IPI) that deterrence worked despite dangerous escalation witnessed in the last week of February. They were speaking on the topic ‘Pakistan’s Nuclear Journey: 21 Years of Deterrence and Stability’. The discussion largely remained focused on post-Pulwama confrontation between the two nuclear-armed arch-rivals during which the Indian Air Force violated Pakistan’s airspace and when Pakistan retaliated the following day, India mobilised its missile batteries and nuclear submarines. The situation later de-escalated due to intervention by third-party intermediaries.
He said deterrence was largely a misunderstood concept and “some have come to believe that even a stone cannot be hurled at us”. It by no means implied that India could now do nothing against Pakistan, he maintained while explaining how the Indian Air Force intruded into Pakistani airspace despite knowing that Pakistan possessed nukes. He cautioned that the misunderstood concept of deterrence could undermine public confidence and work against deterrence from psychological and political point of view.“If Indians are trying to sell this narrative that deterrence failed then it is an irresponsible and dangerous narrative, which could undermine strategic stability and lead to escalation for India would be responsible,” he observed.Brig Zahir Kazmi stated that the purpose of deterrence was to close space for war and bring states to the negotiating table.He said deterrence worked during the post-Pulwama military stand-off despite Indian attempt to escalate to a different level by talking about mobilisation of nuclear missile and nuclear submarines.
Brig Kazmi identified three imperatives for deterrence. First, enabling geostrategic environment that includes sustainable mechanism for dispute resolution; second, strategic restraint and responsibility; and third, maintenance of balance in nuclear deterrence capabilities through arms control rather than competition.He further clarified that deterrence is not an end in itself but a psychological state. “It should inspire fear in which the perceived cost of deterrence breakdown is higher than the desired benefits of preferring war as an instrument for dispute resolution.”

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby khan » 02 Jun 2019 06:13

shyamd wrote:IA reconnaissance units who operate across the border reporting more than dozen camps 1-2km from LoC have been re-occupied. Covert talks have failed. GoI need to decide if they will conduct preemptive strikes or just be reactive. .

This is well within artillery range.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby manjgu » 02 Jun 2019 11:28

shyamd wrote:IA reconnaissance units who operate across the border reporting more than dozen camps 1-2km from LoC have been re-occupied. Covert talks have failed. GoI need to decide if they will conduct preemptive strikes or just be reactive. .


this could well be the groundwork for another SS !! pakis must be shivering reading these 2 lines .

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby brvarsh » 02 Jun 2019 12:26

khan wrote:
shyamd wrote:IA reconnaissance units who operate across the border reporting more than dozen camps 1-2km from LoC have been re-occupied. Covert talks have failed. GoI need to decide if they will conduct preemptive strikes or just be reactive. .

This is well within artillery range.

No matter how many crocodiles you have in the river, the sheer number pushes the wilderbeasts to cross the river. We can kill them in bunch but to completely get rid of them we need to dry out the water, have other predators in the area and inflict them by a disease.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby MeshaVishwas » 02 Jun 2019 12:48

Sitara e Kargil awesome Tu Fail does an anal e sys:
http://kaiser-aeronaut.blogspot.com/2019/06/pulwama-from-bluster-to-whimper.html?m=1
:rotfl:
The butt hurt is so strong, I am now certain that this moron took tit bits from Desi reports and added some Shaan masala :lol:

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Aditya G » 02 Jun 2019 13:32

MeshaVishwas wrote:Sitara e Kargil awesome Tu Fail does an anal e sys:
http://kaiser-aeronaut.blogspot.com/2019/06/pulwama-from-bluster-to-whimper.html?m=1
:rotfl:
The butt hurt is so strong, I am now certain that this moron took tit bits from Desi reports and added some Shaan masala :lol:


Disappointed by this piece by air cmde Tufail - total propaganda piece

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby manjgu » 02 Jun 2019 14:14

a seminary housing kids of age 8 to 15 years on top of a mountain ..away from civilization.. taking 90 min of hard climbing to reach it !! amazing. and it took 45 days to show the press the broken trees and damaged earth !!

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 03 Jun 2019 01:09

MeshaVishwas wrote:Sitara e Kargil awesome Tu Fail does an anal e sys:
http://kaiser-aeronaut.blogspot.com/2019/06/pulwama-from-bluster-to-whimper.html?m=1
:rotfl:
The butt hurt is so strong, I am now certain that this moron took tit bits from Desi reports and added some Shaan masala :lol:


You said it. Massive butt hurt and complete propaganda piece. He's moved from being somewhat credible and a sane voice in the Pak establishment, to a complete mouthpiece of the Pakistani ISPR/ISI set up. Murdered his own credibility in the process.

1. The complete failure of the AMRAAM launches and mockery of the PAF pilots skill has to be countered:

So, claim a Su-30 was hit and then claim the other guy flew around helter skelter. This is again, to reiterate to the clueless and idiotic Pakistani awam, that they were somehow superior.

All the IAF planes magically disappear, and he buys this BS story put out by the Pak establishment? The inability to shoot down the Su-30s has to be explained, hence the claim one disappeared and one was merely flying about.

Multiple IAF sources reiterate the sequence of how the Su-30s went cold/hot - could not get launch authorization on account of RVV-AE range restrictions. The Pakistanis spin this away as some success and make one Su-30 disappear. :lol: Again, this just shows how badly Tufail has taken an axe to his own credibility in order to go with the national narrative to safeguard H&D.

2. The Mirage 2000's superiority vs the JF-17 was really hurting the PAF H&D.

Its clearly really hurt the Paki establishments H&D - that the IAF let out (unofficially) that the Mirage 2000 upgrade was far superior to the JF-17s kit. Note the point the IAF authors all made, the Mirage 2000 kit - radar especially - was far superior to that on the JF-17 and the PAF couldn't counter it. So the Pakistanis had two choices. Make a claim the JF-17 radar set matched the Mirage 2000 and face the embarassment as some international mag punched their claim to bits based on data from Dassault/IAF or come up with a cock and a bull story to somehow, show the radars/IAF in a bad light YET not set up a direct compare between the IAF equipment and the Pakistani equipment.

Hence, the deliberate claim the radars on the Mirages failed and became unserviceable. Sir, we can't claim the JF-17 radar is better than Mirage radar, people will laugh at us. Hmmm ok, let me write a story implying the coward IAF pilots claimed their radars failed and hence we won! Brilliant sir, you are a genius. :rotfl:

I mean, are the Pakistanis even attempting to come up with a proper story? Buffoons, including this moron Tufail who has swallowed this BS hook line and sinker out of national pride and is regurgitating it as a H&D saviour for the PAF.

3. The failed H-4 bomb strike
Another hilarious bit. Note the amount of effort spent in padding up the failed H-4 bombs as some sort of miracle weapon, with high resolution seekers etc. Why? Because the Indian media has been agog over SPICE and its capabilities, and mocking the Pakistanis over their failed kits. Multiple pics around. So the awam have to be reassured. :rotfl:

More jokes, the SPICE bombs were targeted towards a kids seminary where kids learn the Quran.. i mean paindu Tufail, if you have to kiss the ISI's rectum, at least don't make it so obvious, that you are toeing the ISPRs official line. :rotfl: All that sht about repression in Kashmir etc and then this. LOL.

Nothing he says on India will now be taken seriously anymore.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 03 Jun 2019 01:57

Note this NO BS account of how the incident took place, as versus Tufails save the PAF H&D puffpiece.

After his piece, I am now cent per cent convinced the PAF had a real poor showing on the 27th of Feb., you can commission such rubbish only then.
Note after his braggadacio about providing "evidence" to show the F-16 shootdown, and the IAF did exactly that, he swallowed his words and not a peep out of him thereafter, the hypocrite. :lol:

The insistence that Dhanoa resign also displays a certain Pakjabi betrayal syndrome. This man hurt us, something bad should happen to him. IMHO, GOI needs to give CAS Dhanoa Z+ category security. He has really hurt PAF and Paki pride. Similarly, the Indian report that emerged from the IA stating that after the Feb 27th attack, Pakistan has shat its pants and kept quiet led to that comment in Tufail's blog about how COAS Rawat has not made any comments on Pakistan etc. In short, this is a complete and total propaganda piece commissioned by pressure, 30 pieces of silver or appeal to national pride to Tufail, who has given in fully to the coercion, emotions, financial or otherwise.

See the below, about why the Pak establishment is so upset about Feb 27th.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby mmasand » 03 Jun 2019 02:31

Karan, If the mumbling following 27th Feb is anything to go by, this should be the least of their worries.

Lot's of sleepless nights for their Corps commanders following leaks of a detachment with Lapua Magnum's had been spotted across the LAC. IMHO, they are still paying the price, and will continue to do so for the next few months until the winter sets in.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 03 Jun 2019 03:23

I am beginning to lose whatever little respect I had for the Pakistanis and their military capabilities. This sort of keystone kop propaganda Tufail engaged in, was first bragged about on their so called forums. Fact that he is willing to murder his professional reputation even in opposition circles, to toe the line means either the danda was laid hard across his posterior, or he like a little doggy acquiesced to what was expected of him.

Note, that immediately after the event, IAF quickly zeroed in on what it could have done better, what was missing from its inventory, and for better or worse, went after it. More SPICE, but the HE ones and I-Derby ER + SDR. Interestingly enough, PAF is busy playing propaganda but is unable to articulate any weakness publicly. Says it all, really.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby disha » 03 Jun 2019 07:01

Had an interesting conversation with a Baki (just 2 minute over maggi noodles)*:

Me: If your counter-strike was so successful post Balakote, why did you turn tail within 5 km of crossing the LOC? Why did you not press your advantage?
Baki: It was to teach India a lesson that we can make successful strike. There was no point in going beyond 5 km once the lesson is thought!!!!!
Me: But looks like Modi has not learnt the lesson, he said this (Balakote) was an experiment.
Baki: There has been *no* strikes from India after Balakote at all. This proves that Modi is blustering and learnt the lesson.

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

*Note: I was not interested in winning the argument or showing the light to the Baki. My conversations are to just feel joy at them stewing in their own juices.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Varoon Shekhar » 03 Jun 2019 07:23

India and Indians shouldn't concern themselves with why Pakistan didn't do this or that. Just defend the borders and punish them across the border when necessary or possible. And be prepared for any responses, needless to say. JMTC

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Anujan » 03 Jun 2019 07:58

Turns out he is sexist too

“Nandu, flow cold; Nandu, if you hear me, flow cold,” is how a desperate female controller called the unresponsive pilot in high-pitched screams.[9] Fully conscious, but half-deaf by then, Abhinandan soon ran into trouble


Its a woman right? so she would have been hysterical right? So it follows that she'd have yelled and screamed like one of those helpless bollywood heroines.

Sexist ass.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 03 Jun 2019 12:08

Clearly reflecting the PAFs angst and anger at the award to a female fighter controller.

Note his anger at Sitharaman as well.

Almost every statement in the above so called account is a lie, or a misrepresentation.

It's been designed as a propaganda piece to "counter" all the points revealed by the IAF so far.

Truly, the PAF is a propaganda puffball. What they cant ever win in war, is sought to be won via propaganda. I am now fairly sanguine about Round 2, if this is the reaction of the PAF in round 1, one can well imagine what will happen in round 2.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby tsarkar » 03 Jun 2019 14:12

Radio monitoring revealed that Abhinandan was being frantically warned by his ground control about the danger he was getting into. “Nandu, flow cold; Nandu, if you hear me, flow cold,” is how a desperate female controller called the unresponsive pilot in high-pitched screams.[9] Fully conscious, but half-deaf by then, Abhinandan soon ran into trouble.


Glaring error here. Assuming the Pakistanis were monitoring radio comms and this is from a transcript, then here is a fundamental mismatch.

Radio call signs are used in ALL military communications and no one uses personal names like "Nandu".

FWIW ground controller know only what formations are on ORP or in the air with formation call signs and pilot call signs. They rarely know the identity of the pilot they are directing. Also, given the numbers of Indian fighters in the air 2 Su-30 4 pilots, 2 Mirage 2000 2-4 pilots and 6 MiG-21s, there are 12+ pilots and its impossible for the ground controller to personally know who all are in the air or direct all of them by their personal names.

Very fundamental error coming from a senior F-16 pilot and Jacobabab base commander with years of experience in radio communication.

Also he forgets to mention how Abhinandan became half deaf for no reason.

He despairs how ISPR didnt have any aviator while presenting the Pakistani narrative. Looks like his blog post was prepared by someone without in depth knowledge and he added some lines and published it.

Its these mundane details that bring out the truth.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 03 Jun 2019 14:23

The entire transcript is a script from ISPR, which Tufail has "polished" and rewritten. This same script was first released to some fanboys from Pakdefence, which basically functions as an extended arm of the ISPR and pushes their narrative, complete with photoshopped pics etc. I wont bother pulling up the threads, quotes etc, but it's the same script, from we hit a Su-30, other guy ran away for 25 minutes etc etc. That script appeared a few weeks back and it was clear ISPR was planning a propaganda play.

Its then been updated to cover all the gaps in the PAF story, without opening up another can of worms. I can literally make out why each sentence has been inserted and for what reason, it's that obvious. Perhaps I should do a quote by quote reveal.

The intent was to comprehensively run down *all* of the IAF's data reveals till date, and also to run down the quality of the IAF personnel and equipment. Mainly because of the manner in which IAF's details about the BVR combat cut the PAF's fighter jocks ego to the quick, and also, the fact the Mirage 2000's outfought the JF-17s would have caused severe discomfort amongst the awaam/fanboy club.

This in particular really rattled the PAF. That a 40 year old plane, upgraded with newer kit, could outmatch their best and latest inductions.

Being a Pakjabi male dominated force, the award to the Fighter controller lady officer has also really hurt their ego. Hence the script's "shrieking in a high pitched female voice".

They were also upset the IAF/IA revealed they can snoop on PAF/PA communications. Hence the fakery about snooping in on ALL GCI to IAF fighter comms, the claims about radars not working etc.

For the record, this and the Su-30 BVR info is cent per cent confirmed - the Mirage 2000's had a full blown firing solution on the PAF fleet. Didn't fire only because the PAF guys dropped ordinance and ran for it, and Mirage guys conserved ammo as the GCI vectored them downwards towards the F-16s, unlike the fire away, we might hit something PAF F-16s.

I reiterate CAS Dhanoa & key decision makers need protection. The manner in which these guys have been referred to in the above excerpt, and also Abhinandan, clearly indicates that they have really hurt the Pakjabi establishment's ego, and hence they will seek to injure these people.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby manjgu » 03 Jun 2019 16:04

and also interesting is how the narrative has changed from ..1 SU 30 down and 2 pilots captured to 1 SU 3o down , no pilots captured to maybe Su 30 damaged ( managed to land).!!! M2000 being much superior to Bandars is no surprise to anyone .

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby srin » 03 Jun 2019 16:48

Are fighter R/T comms conducted in the clear ? I thought they are encrypted.

I can somewhat understand commercial aviation airband traffic being in the clear, but I'm surprised that AF comms are also in clear that Pakis can decode it.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Bart S » 03 Jun 2019 16:59

^When Sheikh Chilli is writing the account, all things are possible

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Rishi » 03 Jun 2019 17:05

srin wrote:Are fighter R/T comms conducted in the clear ? I thought they are encrypted.

I can somewhat understand commercial aviation airband traffic being in the clear, but I'm surprised that AF comms are also in clear that Pakis can decode it.


Its psyops... Message being that "We can decrypt your comms".

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Gagan » 03 Jun 2019 18:22

We must give credit to Tu-Fail where it is due.
At least he didn't claim 5 Su-30 MKIs were shot down in the space of 6 seconds!

Tu-Fail was Jacobabad base CO hain ji?
What was he doing there, one can imagine - serving tea & biriyani to USAF Staff Sergents there?

Just look at his bullshit!
The flight controllers must have been controlling not just the half a dozen fighters, but also a dozen odd other IAF planes in the region. MCPig says female controller specifically called out to "Nandu".

What a Joker Tu-Fail is

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby abhik » 03 Jun 2019 18:31

What is this "flow cold, flow cold"? Apologies, im not up to date on Bollywood akshun movie dialogues.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby MeshaVishwas » 03 Jun 2019 20:48

Pulwama, Balakot And The Aftermath – An Analysis With 20-20 Hindsight-Doc
http://www.swatantramag.in/?p=2288
THE PRELUDE:

On social media, and in the mainstream media a debate about what happened in the air battle over Pakistan occupied Kashmir on the 27th of February 2019 continues. This part happens to evoke the most widespread general interest – but it is like judging a motion picture after watching the last 15 minutes. The air battles of the 27th of February were only the penultimate events in a chain that started just under a fortnight earlier with a massive terrorist bomb blast on a highway in Pulwama, J&K that killed 40 of our servicemen. The bus they were travelling in was smashed to smithereens, leaving shards of mangled metal over a wide area. Pakistan based Islamic terrorist group Jaish-e-Mohammad (translated as the Army of Mohammad) claimed responsibility for the attack.

As if the pain of this was not enough, there were mocking barbs, both from Pakistan and on social media from Indians supporting political parties opposed to the incumbent government under Narendra Modi. They asked “How’s the Jaish?” in a cruel twist of a motivational call popularized in a Hindi motion picture (“Uri”) where actors representing Indian soldiers responded to the call “How’s the Josh?” – a call that had become something of an informal electioneering slogan among people supporting the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party.

The anguish of the mass murder seemed to evoke a call for retribution among a very large number of Indians. Older people had swallowed their pain and disappointment at the complete lack of action against Pakistan after the terrorist murders of Sikhs in Chattisinghpora in 2000, the 2001 Parliament attack, the Kaluchak massacre of 2002 and the Mumbai attacks of 2008, after which the inaction was compounded by callous statements from ministers and reports of the then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh shedding tears in lieu of action. Personal accounts of retired Indian armed forces people revealed that the forces had been ready with pre-planned attacks on hundreds of targets as retribution after every one of these atrocities. But political will was absent under a weak government. However the coming of the government under PM Modi was marked by a covert special forces action – popularly called a “surgical strike” on terrorist camps across the border in Pakistan in retribution for another terrorist atrocity in Uri. There were no Indian casualties in the raid. In the light of this, the expectation of the Indian population after the Pulwama mass murder was high. And they were not let down.



BALAKOT:

India awoke on the 26th of February 2019 to news of an early morning attack on Pakistani terrorist targets by the Indian Air Force. This raid went completely undetected and un-intercepted by Pakistani defences, and all Indian aircraft were back in their home bases before anyone realized what had happened. One of the targets was in a place called Balakot, in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Over the next few days this news was vitiated by Pakistan’s denials and the enthusiastic endorsement of Pakistani denials by Indian opposition parties who feared that this attack would enhance the chances of re-election of PM Modi in the elections that were weeks away. But the effect of the attack was undeniable. Discounting fuzzy satellite images, the evidence included sophisticated ELINT monitoring of mobile phone usage over the target area in which the signals of about 300 mobile phones suddenly went silent as the Indian Air Force’s precision guided bombs found their targets. The elimination of a large number of Jaish-e-Mohammad terrorists and their trainers in the attack was received further confirmation by humint – which included the Italian lady journalist Francesca Marino who was able to name some of the terrorist trainers killed and give an estimate of numbers killed and wounded in the raid. A leaked video from Pakistan showed a Pakistani army officer consoling a large number of morose elderly men, some in tears – assuring them that their sons had made the ultimate sacrifice for Islam and were now surely in jannat (Islamic heaven). In an absurd and ironically hilarious act – the Pakistani army promised access to the target site for international media – and that access was provided a full 75 days after the attack – giving time for the entire target area to be rebuilt and renovated.

Perhaps the most telling sign of the success of the IAF raid on Balakot came from the Pakistani military – who, while denying that any damage was done were furious and promised revenge. Surprisingly that revenge came the very next day in broad daylight – at a time when the Indian armed forces were on high alert. The nature of the attack seems like a hastily organized venting of fury, rather than something like the cold, calculated Pakistan Air Force (PAF) attack on the Indian air base of Pathankot in 1965. It was this action of 27th February 2019 that gobbled up all media attention and sidelined the earlier events that led to this aerial battle.



THE AIR ACTION OF 27 FEBRUARY 2019:

History was created when 24 Pakistani aircraft were met by 8 or 10 Indian aircraft in the largest air battle since the Korean war. It is possible that more aircraft were in the air at a time over Iraq, but they were all “same side” coalition aircraft with no Iraqi aircraft to oppose them. Those were massed air attacks, not aerial battles. An additional unique feature in the battle of 27 February 2019 was the first-time involvement of such a large number of supersonic fighters facing off in an aerial battle.

Why did the PAF decide to conduct an attack with a mixed fleet of 24 aircraft in broad daylight at a time when they knew the IAF was on it’s highest alert? Pakistan had even announced that there would be retaliation soon – so some kind of attack was to be expected. Perhaps the Pakistan air force, knowing that the IAF was stretched thin maintaining vigil all across the international border, felt that a handful of Indian defenders over J&K could be overwhelmed in a massive air assault. At the end of the day the Pakistani attack was seen off with a mere 8 to 10 Indian aircraft entering the fray with little evidence inside India that they had even come. This cannot have been providence.

The Pakistan Air Force did not reveal what they wanted to achieve. But the fact that they ineffectively fired off several AMRAAM “Beyond Visual Range Air to Air Missiles” (BVRAAM) at IAF Su-30s indicates that they wanted to take at least one Su-30 down. That apart there was an aborted attack on an Indian army Brigade headquarters. It appears that a “best case” scenario that the PAF could have hoped for is at least one Su-30 shot down and at least one bomb on the army HQ. Both these attempts failed. Why the attack on the Su-30s failed has been explained.

The US supplied “AIM 120C” AMRAAM missile that PAF F-16 aircraft are armed with are potent missiles that can, in an ideal scenario, hit a target aircraft 100 km away. However – this is most likely if the distant aircraft is flying towards the missile launching aircraft. If the target aircraft turns away the missile will not reach it. For this reason – the closer the target aircraft the greater the chance of achieving a hit. The US, expecting attacks from massed Russian fighters themselves armed with long range missiles had envisaged firing AMRAAMs from their maximum range and the launch aircraft turning away – allowing the smart missile to home in on approaching Russian fighters. It appears that this tactic was employed by the PAF F-16s but was known to IAF Su-30 crew who recognized the tactic and took evasive action. Four to six AMRAAM missiles were launched and failed to hit their intended targets. The debris of one such missile was found and displayed by the IAF proving that Pakistan did use F-16 aircraft in the raid, because only F-16s of the PAF can fire AMRAAM missiles. The PAF denied use of F-16s – a denial that became significant when it became apparent that a Pakistani F-16 had been shot down.

Apart from these engagements, a northern group of PAF fighters were apparently tasked to target an Indian army brigade headquarters. In the immediate aftermath of the battle, reports from Pakistan cited incredible claims saying that bombs dropped were “not fuzed” and that they were meant only to signal what the PAF could do. This is obviously false – no one drops expensive precision munitions as dummies merely to indicate potential capability. The reason for hastily dropping the bombs that fell short of their targets is thought to be the surprise appearance of IAF MiG 21 aircraft to intercept the attackers – causing them to flee. It was the action after this point that has become the focus of all discussion.

The northern group of attacking Pakistani aircraft were initially unopposed as they approached their targets in Kashmir, but detected on radar. An IAF controller (reportedly a lady officer) ordered MiG 21s to take off to intercept this group. Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman was one of the pilots who took off at this point. It is important here to note that even though there were no Indian fighters already flying in the area doing what is called “CAP” or Combat Air Patrol, other pilots on the ground were hardly relaxing with tea and samosas. There were fighters on the ground ready to take off with a 2-minute warning. The quickly scrambled MiG 21s soon got on to the tails of the attacking Pakistani aircraft who were apparently thrown into disarray as they became the targets. IAF radars recognized F-16s among the attacking aircraft. Wg Cdr Abhinandan locked one of his R-73 missiles on to an F-16 and launched the missile. Unlike the “beyond visual range” AMRAAM, the R-73 is a deadly WVR – “within visual range” missile that locks on to the hot exhaust of a target aircraft. The MiG 21 pilot merely needs to turn his head towards the target aircraft and the missile sensor can lock on to the target. Wg Cdr Abhi launched his missile, announced the fact on his radio, saw the missile hit the F-16, but at this point his own aircraft was hit and he had to eject to save his life as his MiG 21 aircraft went on to crash. Abhinandan was taken prisoner by the Pakistan army. It is interesting that these battles took place over Pakistan controlled territory (PoK) rather than J&K which was being targeted. This suggests that the Pakistani fighters did not really get very far. It was the Indian fighters targeting Pakistani fighters over territory controlled by Pakistan.

This is where the widely discussed controversy started. There is no doubt that an IAF MiG 21 was shot down that day. But doubts have been expressed as to whether a Pakistani F-16 was shot down or not. Let me first address the bogey that debris of an aircraft must be found before it can be declared to have been shot down. By this standard 90% of the thousands of aircraft shot down in World War 2, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and other wars were not really shot down because there is no documented proof of debris. Other evidence such as eyewitness accounts, other pilots in the battle, electronic intercepts or voice messages or radar images correlated with other facts all play a role in attributing a “kill”. The IAF has made public the proof of shooting down of an F-16 to the extent that it can, citing the pilot’s account, radar images, voice intercepts of Pakistani communications and army eyewitnesses. However, we can discount all this as proof and simply stick to logic based on what the IAF and Pakistani spokespersons have said.



“DOOSRA BANDA”

Pakistan says no F-16s were shot down. India says that an F-16 was shot down. The IAF account is boringly consistent and unvarying. The Pakistani account changed from hour to hour and day by day. Initially Pakistan claimed that two aircraft were downed and that there may be three pilots involved. The same day the story changed to two pilots in Pakistani custody – one being Wg Cdr Abhinandan and the second one an injured mystery pilot in a Pakistani military hospital. Still later the Pakistanis said that they had only one Indian pilot in their custody. Following this they admitted that the pilot in hospital had died. He was not named or identified, although it is rumoured that this was the Pakistani F-16 pilot who unfortunately bailed out with a tricolour parachute that Pakistani civilians on the ground mistook for the Indian tricolour and they proceeded to lynch the unfortunate pilot, who later died.

If we discount rumours and stick to claims made by India and Pakistan, this is what we find. If the Pakistani claim is true – then they had at least two pilots, but later admitted only the capture of one Indian pilot. The other pilot was quietly buried, literally and figuratively. He was said to have died in hospital and no further reference was made to him. In fact the Pakistani story fits in perfectly with the Indian claim of two aircraft having been shot down that morning, as well as Indian army eyewitness accounts of at least two separate parachutes going down in PoK. If the pilot in hospital was Indian, the Pakistanis could have rubbished Indian claims and publicly embarrassed India and shown the IAF to have been lying by identifying him or releasing photographs. There was no incentive for Pakistan to hide the identity of a second pilot if he had been Indian. Even a badge or a fragment of his flying suit would have torn the Indian claim to laughable shreds. But Pakistan has chosen to try and forget the second pilot or “doosra banda” (second man) as videos of eyewitnesses on the ground identified him. Clearly, two pilots were downed that day and only one was Indian. Further evidence that this is the case is that while many videos of the crashing Indian MiG-21 were released – there was a tight media clampdown in the Charhoi area of PoK where the F-16 was seen going down. Despite this – two videos, both from Indian sources, show a completely different burning, crashing aircraft from that area. In fact, enlargement of these videos show a series of 24 video frames where an aircraft silhouette is clearly visible behind the bright flame and smoke and the shape fits well with that of an F-16

GEOPOLITICAL ASPECTS:

During the run up to the recent general elections, the Balakot raid following the Pulwama murders was claimed by parties opposed to the government as a trick to win votes. While these were accusations that hit “below the belt” it is difficult to separate the geopolitical angle from this action. Was the original terrorist attack on Pulwama designed to disrupt the elections? I believe that this is unlikely. Terrorists are no longer able to freely chose a time and place for their dastardly deeds – so the timing was probably simply a coincidence.

Was the strike on the terrorist camps in Balakot unnecessary or preventable? Was the strike done for votes? In this case we must ask if the strike would have been carried out even if the general elections had not been weeks away. Given that the government had promised retribution, and given that such retribution could have led to war and to an uncertain outcome, as well as Pakistani promises to use nuclear weapons, the government could have “chickened out” and tried to weather the accusation that it was weak-kneed using the same well-worn excuses perfected by earlier governments. However action was taken and for the first few days there was a real risk of war. But I do believe that the government tried to keep provocation below the threshold of war. The election surely must have been there at the back of the minds of planners in the PMO and defence ministry.

If Pakistan sent 24 fighters – why did the IAF not shoot down more aircraft? The explanation that has been given is that the “RoE” or rules of engagement did not allow the IAF to chase and engage the Pakistani fighters. So why were the RoE fashioned in this way? Here, there has to be a political explanation. I believe it is most likely that the forces were not given the freedom to chase fighters into Pakistani airspace and engage them in a way that would put Indian pilots at greater risk in exchange for more Pakistani losses. When the RoE allow escalation – the clock cannot be rolled back. It is likely to have been a political bar on escalation. Was this done to ensure that the government going for election was protected against uncertainty and loss? Probably yes and no. Yes because by holding back there was the possibility of avoiding a wider war. This is what actually happened. But there was no guarantee that war would not break out. As US presidents have shown the world, it is easier to start wars than to end them. There must have been a deliberate political directive to the forces not to take the action further. In any case even the Pakistani aircraft barely crossed the LoC and did not stay very long in Indian airspace, allowing very little opportunity for engagement. Wg Cdr Abhinandan had to cross into Pakistani airspace to fire his missile and became vulnerable as a result.

The repatriation of our pilot Wg Cdr Abhinandan was declared as a sort of uneasy endpoint. Neither side took the action any further. Rumour has it that the threat of naval blockade of Karachi greatly assisted the Pakistani authorities in making the decision to repatriate our pilot. We may never know that – but in the final analysis – the Pulwama attack was avenged and the Pakistani retaliation was quite underwhelming, notwithstanding its rapidity and fury and tall claims. And the general election went ahead on schedule.

Bloody brilliant overview.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby manjgu » 03 Jun 2019 20:50

i think its means turn back ... dont go hunting actively. hot ...actively seeking/tracking & cold... turning back/ forget about seeking tracking. flow hot/cold. The F16 went cold after shooting the AMRAAMs. like turned back to scoot after shooting ,,not guiding the missile and hoping allah takes it to a SU 30.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Ravi Karumanchiri » 04 Jun 2019 00:58

MeshaVishwas wrote:Pulwama, Balakot And The Aftermath – An Analysis With 20-20 Hindsight-Doc
http://www.swatantramag.in/?p=2288
<SNIP>

Terrorists are no longer able to freely chose a time and place for their dastardly deeds – so the timing was probably simply a coincidence.

<SNIP>


Bloody brilliant overview.


^^^^^^^^^^
This is a totally facile and completely unsupported and indefensible premise. Indeed, the main advantage of terrorists is that they choose the time and the place for their attacks. That is how they are ever able to do anything. It is really their whole operational crux -- the very fulcrum of their modus operandii. As such, the timing is always significant. It means something or it capitalizes on a passing opportunity; or otherwise consolidates on a messaging or style goal, as part of a 'signature' or some symbolic meaning of ideological or historical underpinning. Terrorist plotters (I won't call them "Masterminds" as the press is fond of doing); they always have too much ego to do anything for the sake of "coincidence".

Pulwama was meant to show-up the federal administration as weak and ineffectual; but instead that attack spun the Balakot strike, which proved the administration to be neither weak nor ineffectual. After Pulwama, the terrorists paid a price (while expecting to get-off scot-free, sitting under the TSP's "nuclear umbrella").

India demonstrated a willingness to climb a rung or two (or three or four) on the escalation ladder, if it meant retribution.

The days of cost-free terrorism are over. Counterstrikes will be punitive, not merely symbolic.

There are no 'unfuzed bombs' slung under IAF wings; and I don't believe in coincidences.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby ramana » 04 Jun 2019 01:07

abhik wrote:What is this "flow cold, flow cold"? Apologies, im not up to date on Bollywood akshun movie dialogues.

Its the fighter plane radar. Its cold means turned off. Hot means turned on to fire radar guided missiles.
If its on all the time the plane will be a big target.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby mmasand » 04 Jun 2019 01:09

^^ The author is the one that goes by the handle 'cybersurg' on YouTube, and has his own narrated version of events. I didn't read the article beyond the point when he cited the 'fake' video of PakFauj consoling some pakhtuns from an unrelated incident.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby JTull » 04 Jun 2019 01:53

Hakim will be amused by being identified from his other avatars.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby A_Gupta » 04 Jun 2019 02:21

Tufail, tu bhi fail!

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby SSridhar » 04 Jun 2019 07:33

Ravi Karumanchiri wrote:
MeshaVishwas wrote:Pulwama, Balakot And The Aftermath – An Analysis With 20-20 Hindsight-Doc
http://www.swatantramag.in/?p=2288

Bloody brilliant overview.


^^^^^^^^^^
This is a totally facile and completely unsupported and indefensible premise. Indeed, the main advantage of terrorists is that they choose the time and the place for their attacks. That is how they are ever able to do anything. It is really their whole operational crux -- the very fulcrum of their modus operandii. As such, the timing is always significant.

There is a difference between what Shiv said and what you say above.

Terroristan terrorists are unable to mount anymore spectacular attacks that require a lot of planning, training and funding, like the Parliament attack, 26/11 or the various serial, coordinated bombings of cities and trains all over India starting from 1993 etc. The terrorists will always choose the time and place of their attacks like how it happened in Pulwama, but these have become opportunistic attacks rather than elaborately planned and executed ones. These attacks are now decentralized as a result of relentless pressure on the apex structures of Terroristan, no doubt. This is not to say that the attacks cannot cause much damage. It sure did in Pulwama. But, Terrorristan is unable to act freely, choose targets in India ahead of time and execute their plans. This is a massive disruption to their terror apparatus.

We know that Project Karachi was to enable the 'natives' to be involved in terror under a thin but overall control of Terroristan. But, what is happening now was not what Terroristan wanted to achieve as part of that project.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby manjgu » 04 Jun 2019 08:00

Ssridhar...what makes u think that Pulwama was not something which required lot of planning, training ? the fact that the terrorists in kashmir seem to be always well armed with plenty of ammo to spare proves there is still elaborate planning, funding to bring in arms, ammo. Yes, maybe not on the scale as in the past but i guess apart from Indian security forces presure there are other reasons for this reduction. JMT

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Paul » 04 Jun 2019 12:17

Turkish handles @Agitpapa and others came out in support of Pakistan in the aftermath of Balakot crisis. Need to watch out for them.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby ramana » 04 Jun 2019 20:08

manjgu wrote:Ssridhar...what makes u think that Pulwama was not something which required lot of planning, training ? the fact that the terrorists in Kashmir seem to be always well armed with plenty of ammo to spare proves there is still elaborate planning, funding to bring in arms, ammo. Yes, maybe not on the scale as in the past but i guess apart from Indian security forces pressure there are other reasons for this reduction. JMT



In the aftermath of Pulwama attack it came out that TSP had been stockpiling RDX smuggled in small amounts in Kashmir. And when opportunity came they used the inventory for the attack. So the stockpiling was lot of planning but the attack itself was target of opportunity.

What we see is mostly small unit terrorist operations like commando squads.
And mostly neutralized by joint task forces of RR, BSF/CRPF and J&K police.
Then add stone pelters.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Rudradev » 05 Jun 2019 00:56

SSridhar wrote:
Terroristan terrorists are unable to mount anymore spectacular attacks that require a lot of planning, training and funding, like the Parliament attack, 26/11 or the various serial, coordinated bombings of cities and trains all over India starting from 1993 etc. The terrorists will always choose the time and place of their attacks like how it happened in Pulwama, but these have become opportunistic attacks rather than elaborately planned and executed ones. These attacks are now decentralized as a result of relentless pressure on the apex structures of Terroristan, no doubt. This is not to say that the attacks cannot cause much damage. It sure did in Pulwama. But, Terrorristan is unable to act freely, choose targets in India ahead of time and execute their plans. This is a massive disruption to their terror apparatus.

.


Very true.

I think there is reason to believe that the "apex structures" of TSP were, in fact, preparing to break out of the constraints that have been imposed on them since roughly 2003-4. They saw an increasing desperation on the part of the Americans to get out of Afghanistan at all costs, and were preparing to exercise the leverage this gave them by raising the operational pitch of their anti-India jihad from "attacks of opportunity" to something more coordinated and large-scale.

This was the import of intelligence India received to the effect that plans to train, equip, and induct a massive campaign of SVBIED attacks in J&K had been unearthed. The training and indoctrination for this kind of op, previously seen in ISIS-controlled Syria/Iraq and Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, had been established at Balakot with the JeM taking point.

The strike on Balakot was not just a response to Pulwama alone. As GOI officially stated, it was a pre-emptive decapitation of the technical and ideological leadership and neutralization of a key organizational/C&C node in the terrorist infrastructure. The Pulwama attack was intended to be the first of many of its kind. Balakot ensured that, at least in the short term, it would be the last.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Ravi Karumanchiri » 05 Jun 2019 02:10

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
I truly don't mean to be a "party pooper" and a rain-cloud/wet-blanket, etc.; but I've gotta counsel......

I can't help but think that there's people posting in this thread with a lot of confidence in not knowing what they don't know. That's not to say that I know anything in particular, because I don't. I'd drop a dime, of course. One of my personal mottos is "death to terrorists" right along with 'death to tyrants". Just consider (as the worrier in me always does).....

Part of why I don't like the press using the term "Mastermind" when they address the topics of terrorism or terrorists; is because there is nothing particularly masterful about such attacks; as technically advanced as some of them may be. We can perhaps agree that they are cunning or maybe "brutally clever", but there is nothing "Masterful" about destroying innocent life.

Just because a long time has passed since the last "Major Terrorist Attack" worthy of headline reporting and global live TV coverage; is no reason to think that the enemy is entirely incapable or unmotivated to undertake such a grand scheme in the future. Just because it hasn't happened lately, is no reason to become complacent now. Ask yourself, is that the attitude of a "Watchman"? [How is it that BRF needs a Canadian to point this out?]

One cannot relax while the enemy is still "constituted and commanded" which it *IS*.

As for Pulwama being an tactically/technically easy strike on a target of opportunity: This is HOGWASH. As pointed-out in a post above^^^^ the RDX used was smuggled in over time, little by little, and then built-into a proper form (shape charge) into a vehicle, which probably would have had some added electrical and perhaps even suspension components (to pass cursory inspection and look like an unloaded vehicle). Furthermore, the VBIED was driven past many vehicles, and struck a leading troop transport, stopping the whole column. All of this was prepared and planned in advance, by someone with a lot more know-how and "cunning" than that driver who bombed the bus at Pulwama. That bomb was built-to-purpose; and maybe that particular bus wasn't definitely the target, but a leading bus on a military convoy *WAS*.

All things considered, Pulwama was not some unsophisticated attack of a target of opportunity. It was planned and executed over months; by people outside of that AoOps. As much sweeping-up as the IA and BSF have been doing of late; those plotters remain. They like to run their little schools, and turn-out terrorists like they do litters of puppies at a puppy mill.

So called "Spectacular Attacks" are all about fundraising and recruitment. The impetus for these requirements remains; so we must remain vigilant lest we live the next horror-show, rather than prevent it. Have no doubt, they always plan to out-do themselves. Now is no time to become complacent.


ADDED LATER (INCLUDES IDLE SPECULATION): But don't I remember reading that the 2008 Mumbai attack was carried-out by JeM terrorists who were trained at the Pakistani Naval academy? Was there not also a recent warning raised that water-borne attacks and infiltration attempts might be in the offing; requiring extra vigilance? These are institutions and institutions have inertia; meaning old habits die hard or more often, never go away. Woudln't it be just like the TSP to attempt a repeat of their 2008 "success", and again attempt a water-borne insertion? [...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................Don't I remember seeing a map that there is a body of water at Tarbela?]

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby ramana » 05 Jun 2019 02:32

ramana wrote:
abhik wrote:What is this "flow cold, flow cold"? Apologies, im not up to date on Bollywood akshun movie dialogues.

Its the fighter plane radar. Its cold means turned off. Hot means turned on to fire radar guided missiles.
If its on all the time the plane will be a big target.


I am informed


Ramana, I saw your post in the Balakot thread on BRF. You have "hot" "cold" wrong. Aircraft going hot means they are turned towards each other. Going cold means turning away. On the 27, the IAF and PAF were playing hot and cold. PAF then launched AMRAAMs vs the Su-30 formation and immediately turned cold. This thwarted any retaliation, although it also meant a very low chance of a PAF hit.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby dnivas » 05 Jun 2019 03:35

mmasand wrote:^^ The author is the one that goes by the handle 'cybersurg' on YouTube, and has his own narrated version of events. I didn't read the article beyond the point when he cited the 'fake' video of PakFauj consoling some pakhtuns from an unrelated incident.


That article is by Shiv :)

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby SSridhar » 05 Jun 2019 08:40

^^^ I am pretty sure that none of us here knows much as we base our analyses on open source information and bits and pieces that we may gather otherwise which may not always be accurate. Then, our analyses are also subject to our interpretations which may be entirely inaccurate. Therefore, no one here is claiming anything to the contrary.

Secondly, AFAIK, nobody is assuming that the enemy is demotivated, incapable or has given up terror as the state policy of coercion. We have often discussed here how many decades it would take for Pakistan to turn around even if it were to turn magically into a normal, decent nation-state today reversing its terror policies altogether. Some of us closely monitor terror groups around the Indian subcontinent, especially in Pakistan. Nobody has become complacent either. I don't know how such conclusions are arrived at.

Every terror attack, big or small, is an act of opportunity. A vulnerability is detected and that is exploited by a terrorist. OTOH, 'opportunistic' attacks exploit sudden situations without regard for extensive planning, special training etc. Usually, these can be only of limited geographic import. The damage can sometimes be unfortunately severe as it happened in Pulwama due to various reasons.

A variety of factors such as heavy punishment, infiltration, pre-emptive operations, a free-hand to armed forces, FATF, relentless all-round diplomatic pressure, counter-terror measures, determination from leadership etc have contributed to the present situation. Of course, sleeper cells are there, ammunition dumps may be there and 'opportunistic' targets may present themselves in future to be taken advantage of. Consumed by its obsession with India, it would be surprising only if these things had not been 'taken care of' by the enemy.

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Re: Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Postby Singha » 05 Jun 2019 10:41

a hitlist of top10 J&K terrorists to be hunted down at all costs has been prepared by MHA.
in concert a multi agency financial task force is taking apart the shell cos and financial streams that feed the kashmiri separatist overground leaders.
i feel dark days are here for the political separatists and terrorists both. the soft approach of tying up with mehbooba mufti was tried but proved a failure.


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