Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

[VikramA]

The question is "what were the pakis thinking?"

They were prepared to attack our IA brigade HQ within a day of our attack .... Did they even weigh the options?

The whole thing was a PR stunt. They dropped the bombs in an open field, where they knew no one will be hurt. They did so in daylight to make sure.

Most facts point towards IAF doing the same thing. IAF hit the training camp in such a way, that they proved they could have hit it, but missed by intention. Point was not to destroy any infrastructure, just to drive home a point that India is calling off the nuclear bluff. India can start a war, which will humiliate the PA army, by taking some territory, without posing an existential threat to land of the pure.

except PAF openly said that they did not hit anything but IAF openly said that 5 out 6 targets were hit

[Karan M]

Do you even have an idea about the fragmentation effect of modern munitions to understand how absurd your statements are? There is no dropping LGBs on "empty fields" in front of a Brigade HQ with people around, plus multiple reports note one LGB almost struck the camp but for a tree coming in the way.

Dobt make such equally absurd claims about the IAF either.

The question is "what were the pakis thinking?"

They were prepared to attack our IA brigade HQ within a day of our attack .... Did they even weigh the options?

The whole thing was a PR stunt. They dropped the bombs in an open field, where they knew no one will be hurt. They did so in daylight to make sure.

Most facts point towards IAF doing the same thing. IAF hit the training camp in such a way, that they proved they could have hit it, but missed by intention. Point was not to destroy any infrastructure, just to drive home a point that India is calling off the nuclear bluff. India can start a war, which will humiliate the PA army, by taking some territory, without posing an existential threat to land of the pure.

[hnair]

The whole thing was a PR stunt. They dropped the bombs in an open field, where they knew no one will be hurt. They did so in daylight to make sure.

Most facts point towards IAF doing the same thing. IAF hit the training camp in such a way, that they proved they could have hit it, but missed by intention. Point was not to destroy any infrastructure, just to drive home a point that India is calling off the nuclear bluff. India can start a war, which will humiliate the PA army, by taking some territory, without posing an existential threat to land of the pure.

Rubbish being subtly aired, are we?

[Lalmohan]

i've come to the conclusion that 80% of BRF-wallahs don't actually read anything that is posted on BRF

[Lalmohan]

twitter says that Masood azhar has been declared an atankwadi by the UN. China refrained from Veto
you may draw your own conclusions

[Ravi Karumanchiri]

When will we get info on the other two targets hit, I have a feeling that there was a strategic signal sent to our neighbour, which would be diluted if publised

^^^^^^^^^^^
Can someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but.....

We have not seen a definitive proof of life of Masood Azhar since Balakot.

There was some audio that came-out, but it was ma$terb8ory bloviating about Pulwama (with no mention of Balakot).

Look back at that first official written statement from the IAF. The way things "ran" is poorly understood by most Rakshaks IMO.

Sure, the well planned and high-confidence strike on Balakot was the long-planned-out and "capital point" of the operation; but there is reason to believe deliberate targets were struck, not knowing precisely/perfectly who was being struck, in not one but two other locations not Balakot.

It makes perfect sense: It's not every day that TSP airspace is penetrated by a flight of IAF warbirds. At any rate, they've got to go and come back; which means they'll be flying-over choice locations of opportunity or otherwise where certain somebody's RF signature is laid down to rest. Not one such target, but two; separate from the prime strike on Balakot.

So, who is missing?

Also: Clear message is sent that it's no favour to these guys, to let them run-free and do their thing. They'd be safer in jail, and they ought to know Netra will be listening. They should enjoy their goats and give-up their nonsense.

[VikramA]

paki rag dawn coolly writes: "The United Nations' Security Council Committee on Wednesday placed Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) leader Masood Azhar to its sanctions list." that's it. no lines after that

[Ravi Karumanchiri]

<snip>

Most facts point towards IAF doing the same thing. IAF hit the training camp in such a way, that they proved they could have hit it, but missed by intention. Point was not to destroy any infrastructure, just to drive home a point that India is calling off the nuclear bluff. India can start a war, which will humiliate the PA army, by taking some territory, without posing an existential threat to land of the pure.

Respectfully disagree,

That bombed-out area of forest near Jaba Top was diversionary nonsense from PA. It takes nothing to wrap some detcord around trees and blast them down; so to claim that's where the bombs landed.

Had a penetrator hit the forest, there would have been a mound of earth bulging upward; or if there was rock underneath, it would blast-out and form a crater. From what I saw of that photo of forest, terrain isn't perturbed like that in either direction. Surface damage to trees only. Doesn't look like a penetrator hit there to me.

JMT

twitter says that Masood azhar has been declared an atankwadi by the UN. China refrained from Veto
you may draw your own conclusions

^^^^^^^^^
I take this as further proof he's dead. No sense expending political capital on a dead man: Makes it easy to shrug at the moment of VETO; and why not blacklist the guy; the West knows he's useless to them now, anyway.

Because of this: The GoI should consider it an empty gesture; and no favour should be granted to China for acquiescing on this. It's disgraceful it took this long in the first place.

[saip]

Those so called bombed out areas on Jaba Top were probably the IEDs (for terrorists being trained at Balakot) pits and Pakistan was able to readily show them.

[souravB]

--snip--
^^^^^^^^^
I take this as further proof he's dead. No sense expending political capital on a dead man: Makes it easy to shrug at the moment of VETO; and why not blacklist the guy; the West knows he's useless to them now, anyway.

Because of this: The GoI should consider it an empty gesture; and no favour should be granted to China for acquiescing on this. It's disgraceful it took this long in the first place.

Sir if that is the case, shouldn't we have spent this diplomatic capital on something more valuable like a permanent seat at the high table? I wonder what we are conceding to Unkil for pushing this and how many of our indigenous projects will suffer to order Rafales from France.

[Anujan]

X-posting

I wish they had not blacklisted Masood Azhar

US wants India to stop importing Iranian oil. India wants US help with FATF matters. That is the quid-pro-quo vis-a-vis Iran.

By lifting the hold, China has now enabled listing Masood Azhar and Pakis will use this to cover up their Echandee to put him under "house arrest" and use that to argue to not be put in FATF blacklist.

[Ravi Karumanchiri]

Sir if that is the case, shouldn't we have spent this diplomatic capital on something more valuable like a permanent seat at the high table? I wonder what we are conceding to Unkil for pushing this and how many of our indigenous projects will suffer to order Rafales from France.

Forgive me; but I think you're thinking of this wrong.

India has diplomats. That is a "sunk cost". Whether they are sitting always comfortably with chai and biskoot; or whether they are knocking on doors, making calls and paying visits; the cost is the same. India does not expend political capital when the GoI makes the case that terrorists should be fought.

What costs political capital is China's holding the umbrella open for TSP based terrorism directed at India.

As for "begging for a seat at the table"; I don't think India should make much of an effort, in this direction.

The "New India" I can see, doesn't seek to win by argument. Words are cheap. Deeds speak.

You know, I remember thinking, when Mangalyaan achieved martian orbit on the first attempt: The technical assessment underpinning the credibility of India's nuclear deterrent must have gained confidence. If India can put an orbiter around Mars; their guidance systems should probably deliver warheads where intended -- so take this seriously.

Balakot did something similar.

And the next day, when a front-line interceptor drove-back much more modern bogies, and scored a kill against one.

His fighting spirit, in that clearly outclassed platform, said a lot about the IAF itself. I'm serious: Moral and fighting spirit matter greatly; and 'Abhi' showed that in the MT order of magnitude.

India wasn't trying to "send a message" or engage in "strategic signalling" or any such impractical forms of "speech".

On the night of the Balakot air raid; the IAF was "pulling the root", working all the way to the end, not leaving anything behind (intentionally, anyway).

For JeM to come back, would virtually require a full 'start over'. I don't expect there's very much of them left, at present, anyway.

JMT (not saying I'm definitely not wrong; but yet, still no proof-of-life of Masood Azhar).

Does everyone remember that bout of "Dialysis" he was receiving after Balakot? He was "sick", was he? How's he today? Upset to be cooped-up under house arrest? [I don't think he's been seen since that day.]

[shyamd]

The listing of Azhar is part of covert diplomacy. The powers are trying to arrange face saving for both India and TSP.
TSP will claim that Azhar has nothing to do with Pulwama.

TSP and rest of the world understand what is coming if Azhar is not designated a terrorist. I personally don’t think this is enough for GoI and GoI will have several other demands before any operational tempo is reduced.

Covert action will continue until TSP ability is degraded

[Lalmohan]

Pakistan has also gone cool on OBOR and is grumbling (maybe at unkil's behest), so maybe Sweeter than Khushboo Birather is poking ungli in the Musharraf-e-pak to remind them who is tallest all weather dost

[shyamd]

The thing is, this designation doesn’t actually mean much. What GoI really cares about is REAL change on the ground (IB, LoC and perhaps 30km on other side of border)

[Lalmohan]

I think the excitement is about a diplomatic 'victory' at the UN, and getting China to change its position
I would suggest that there is a recognition that India/Modi is doing a "Taxi Driver" - you talkin' to me? you talkin' TO ME?!! Well here is a dhoti-wallah who would not take it any more...

[ramana]

i've come to the conclusion that 80% of BRF-wallahs don't actually read anything that is posted on BRF

Why stop at 80%?
Are we using Pareto?

[ramana]

X-posting

I wish they had not blacklisted Masood Azhar

US wants India to stop importing Iranian oil. India wants US help with FATF matters. That is the quid-pro-quo vis-a-vis Iran.

By lifting the hold, China has now enabled listing Masood Azhar and Pakis will use this to cover up their Echandee to put him under "house arrest" and use that to argue to not be put in FATF blacklist.

There will be lot of Chinese checkers coming up in next two months.
This was a gesture of good faith for the game.

Relax and let NaMo do his thing.

[ramana]

Sameer Joshi tweeted that Fizzile Ya bombed their own camp in Jabba Top with Mk 82/84 bombs and showed crater damage pictures.
This reconciles with local people talking about airplanes in the air that early morning over Balakot.
Note the M2Ks were ~50km away.

https://twitter.com/joe_sameer/status/1 ... 69217?s=19

[nithish]

Meanwhile, Pakistani airspace is still closed (until
May 15th): https://www.caapakistan.com.pk/upload/N ... 459-19.TXT

Pakistan airspace re-opened to Afghan flights between Kabul and New Delhi

Pakistan’s airspace of Pakistan was re-opened to Afghan flights between Kabul and New Delhi more than months after Pakistan closed its airspace following a dog-fight between the Indian and Pakistani air forces late in February that ensued after the alleged bombing of Jaish-e-Mohammad sanctuaries by Indian air force.

The President Information Coordination Center confirmed late this evening that the airspace of Pakistan was re-opened to Afghan flights after continuous efforts of the leadership of the government of national unity.

According to a brief statement posted on Twitter by Presidential Information Coordination Center, the fare of ticket between Kabul and Delhi has once again dropped to 160 US Dollars after the opening of the airspace of Pakistan.

This comes as flights between Kabul and New Delhi were taking place via Iranian airspace ahead of the opening of Pakistani airspace which was costing the passengers a hefty amount besides taking almost five hours of flight to travel between the two destinations.

[souravB]

Sir, what you have said is one way of looking at it, i.e. the positivism. The skeptic in me looks at it with a healthy dose of worry.
JMT, diplomacy works with a scratch the back policy. I do not for a second believe Unkil is spending its leverage on China for India without getting something in return ergo the Iranian oil ban as pointed out by Anujan sir.

[Aditya G]

Reg theories that the PAF intentionally missed:

- You don't need to waste 11 stand off PGMs to make a point.

I believe the PAF dusted off a ready war plan and executed it, say it was a response to a SF surgical strike executed and openly claimed by IA. So PAF attack in response would be seen as legitimate and appropriate.

I have a theory that GOI and IAF had no plans to actually reveal to the public about the air strike. Ghafoor started tweeting about it at bloody 5AM and literally drove everybody on both sides of the border into events the next day. The PAF would not have responded if the ISPR had remained mum "as nothing had gone off their father" ....

The onus of retaliation fell on PAF and they simply executed the safest plan they had - as any IA counter response would have fallen on PA and not them. So they saved their H&D first, consequences be dammned.

IAF did well but unfortunately they had our PoW which would have forced political leadership into defensive mode. The case for response by IAF was then lost.

[Rakesh]

2 months after Balakot, Pakistan changes nuclear weapons tune – they’re for deterrence only
https://theprint.in/defence/2-months-af ... ly/229368/

“Nuclear powers are not a threat, they are a weapon of deterrence that should not be mentioned lightly… Do not test our resolve ,” Ghafoor said at the press conference, referring to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s election campaign remark earlier this month that India’s nuclear weapons are “not meant for Diwali.”

Ghafoor also spoke about the failed 27 February strike by the Pakistan Air Force, claiming that Pakistan had fired just six weapons to try and hit four targets. In reality, PAF fired a total of 11 H-4 bombs and 4 or 5 AMRAAM missiles during the dogfight with the Indian Air Force, but not one hit a target. Ghafoor also said Pakistan was just showing its capability by dropping bombs near military installations.

[ramana]

Gen Ghafoor has become Rawalpindi Bob.

[Anujan]

Also grapevine has it that Bajwa does not like Ghafool being the public face of Pakistan Army. Apparently Bajwa was against awarding Hilal-i-Imtiaz for Ghafool, because he was taking away all the glory.

[Lalmohan]

Gen Ghafoor has become Rawalpindi Bob.

Pindi Pete

[ramana]

Mulla Rouge please propagate the meme.

[Ravi Karumanchiri]

Sir, what you have said is one way of looking at it, i.e. the positivism. The skeptic in me looks at it with a healthy dose of worry.
JMT, diplomacy works with a scratch the back policy. I do not for a second believe Unkil is spending its leverage on China for India without getting something in return ergo the Iranian oil ban as pointed out by Anujan sir.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
I don't know why you 'went' there; please don't infer meaning where I offered none.

I do not for a second believe Unkil is spending its leverage on China for India -- we can agree on this wholeheartedly -- I don't know why anyone would think otherwise, certainly I never did.

Also, check your math.

For Khan to pressure China on listing Azhar, would be 'down one' for Khan and 'up one' for China.
Similarly, for Khan to pressure China on Iranian oil, would also be 'down' for Khan and 'up many' for China.

Where it the quid pro quo "back scratching" happening? This is nonsense. Not everything is give and take. There is take and take, too; but I don't know why anyone would think Khan is doing these things on behalf of India or to win favour with India. That is myth; so before asking me to defend myth (I never invoked); please explain why I should believe that myth?

I believe in Realpolitik.

The Chinese believe in 'face' (and are concerned about loosing face ****in the eyes of their own public**** which is why they insist so hard that Mashood Azhar is a spiritual leader, while they condemn the Dalai Lama as a terrorist. These are lies that the Chinese Communist Party stands-on; so to look upstanding in the eyes of their Han public. Of course, this collides with the reality of the situation, which is why they have to expend political capital and engage in all sorts of censorship, propaganda and bullying, to uphold these lies.

India pointing out the reality, does not cost political capital, it earns it.

As for China relenting on the listing of Masood Azhar; it is not that the cost of upholding that lie suddenly became too great. No. That would by a myth.

The obvious truth (to my eyes) is that Masood Azhar couldn't "take the meeting" with the Chinese envoy; who was not impressed with the dialysis excuse; leading the Chinese Communist Party to come to the realization that he's dead (or otherwise, can offer them nothing/do nothing for China? Does that make sense?)

No. The only thing that makes sense, is he's dead.

[ramana]

Ravi What you write belongs in Terroristan thread in the other forum.

[Karan M]

ACM (R) AY Tipnis views on the Balakot attack, read it all.
https://issuu.com/spguide/docs/sp_s_aviation_4-2019

[nachiket]

Perhaps OT, but this whole episode made me wish that we still had some Foxbats flying which could have been sent in just to cause sonic booms over Isloo and Pindi both during the Balakot strikes and afterwards when the airspace was shut down. Would have caused all kinds of chaos and confusion and probably given Ghafoor a heart attack.

[mmasand]

Perhaps OT, but this whole episode made me wish that we still had some Foxbats flying which could have been sent in just to cause sonic booms over Isloo and Pindi both during the Balakot strikes and afterwards when the airspace was shut down. Would have caused all kinds of chaos and confusion and probably given Ghafoor a heart attack.

Should've shattered the windows where Pindi Pete was speaking to the media just like how JDAMs were being dropped in the vicinity of Baghdad Bob's pressers where he would claim: there are no Americans. We will humiliate them.

[Lalmohan]

Perhaps OT, but this whole episode made me wish that we still had some Foxbats flying.

might be our simplest solution to awacs neutralisation... atleast the Mig31

[eklavya]

^^^^
S-400 or Rafale with Meteor should be more effective?

[eklavya]

I'm actually wondering what exactly their plan was if one of the bombs had hit an IA target and caused casualties. If the Pulwama attack can lead to an IAF strike inside KPK, a PAF bomb falling on Indian soldiers would immediately lead to an all out war. What were these geniuses going to do then? Yet another example of tactical brilliance by the PA jarnails trying to start a war when ordinary abduls can't even afford tomatoes.

The PAF fully intended to hit the IA Brigade HQ. In the PA mind, the IAF strike on Balakot was a strike on the PA. Ergo, a retaliatory strike on an IA formation was non escalatory.

JeM’s open claim of the Pulwama terror strike suggests the PA wants war.

[Ravi Karumanchiri]

Perhaps OT, but this whole episode made me wish that we still had some Foxbats flying.

might be our simplest solution to awacs neutralisation... atleast the Mig31

There is an inherent advantage to that kind of speed and service ceiling; it provides excellent shots and lots of warning. As such, the Rafale as a platform cannot do some of the things a Foxbat or Foxhound can do, having that speed (Mach 2.83) at that superlative service ceiling (82,000+ ft).

I've wondered: Rather than undertake the time and expense of designing a new aircraft ab initio to fly at this height and speed, why not manufacture the exact same design out of more modern materials? Stainless steel is rather heavy, no? Nowadays, there are materials that handle heat better than steel, and are lighter and stronger too, and all of these things ***are in India already***.

Using composites, additive tooling becomes the way to go, which is cheaper and quicker than old-style metal tooling for stamping sheets of steel. (NB: Additive tooling means tools made in 3D printing processes. Sheet steel is replaced by rolls of special-fibre "cloth" (many of which have epoxy embedded, or 'prepreg'); and shape and form is fixed by the work of expoxies and "autoclave" ovens/UV light and sometimes, mixtures of resins, etc. No longer is metal formed by stamping and cutting-away at blanks and raw ingots. Metals are finely powdered and melted together with the precision of lasers. ET CETERA, ET CETERA....)

Just make a Foxhound using today's composites, and rush the first bird into flight testing within 22 months.

Throw this book of tech at it, and whatever else is closely held in ISRO and the various DRDO labs, and make this a strategic complexifier for India's enemies.

ADDED LATER: Now I read there are Russians working on a Mig31 replacement they're planing to call the Mig41 or maybe also "PAK-DA".

[SSridhar]

JeM’s open claim of the Pulwama terror strike suggests the PA wants war.

JeM's open claim can even be dismissed as bravado or their conditioned thinking that India wouldn't retaliate for yet another strike, but the choice of IA Brigade HQ is certainly not. The target couldn't have been chosen by PAF without consulting with the PA.

The PA sees merit, money-making opportunity and malevolence in war with India. It knows that 'powers that be' would intervene before it becomes too bad for itself. But, that would be enough to achieve its 'goals' and also claim to the Pakistani abduls that India was defeated yet again.

[Rahul M]

PAK-DP, PAK-DA is the bomber.

[Kashi]

It knows that 'powers that be' would intervene before it becomes too bad for itself. But, that would be enough to achieve its 'goals' and also claim to the Pakistani abduls that India was defeated yet again.

This is exactly the narrative they are going to town with. The question is how does GoI plan to game this?

[eklavya]

^^^^
We have been trying to solve this problem for 72 years! It will get solved one day.

Plan has to involve concerted effort across all fronts:

1) Military. Investment in force multipliers / technological superiority.

2) Diplomatic pressure e.g. aim to get ISI listed as a terrorist organisation. Downgrade diplomatic relations, etc.

3) Financial. Here we can upgrade our effort. We should aim to prevent IMF and WB from lending to Pakistan. We should tell companies that they can either operate in India or Pakistan. Etc.

4) Psychological pressure. Constantly broadcast high quality content into Pakistan in their local languages exposing the Pakistani military’s many crimes and military incompetence.

5) River waters. Ensure Pakistan does not get 1 litre more than their due under the IWT. Be prepared to abrogate IWT as response to terrorist attacks like the Kandahar hijacking, Parliament attack, 26/11, Pulwama, etc. Treaties with terrorists is not sensible.

6) Afghanistan. Arm and fund their government as if it was an outlying Indian state facing a deadly enemy.