MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

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esommuk
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby esommuk » 08 Mar 2019 00:59

nam wrote:Getting an approval for IAF strike took us decades. 5 decades to be precise. That too under the "non-military target", "we don't want to escalate" buzzword

Sir this is pure retaliation against hostile behaviour. Do we need babudom and netas to approve and underwrite? We should have more Abhinnadans in IAF!

‘Yeh naya Hindustan hai ... blah blah’ should not be restricted to Bollywood flicks IMHO!

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Shameek » 08 Mar 2019 01:03

naird wrote:What does this even mean ? Doesnt make sense


Usually, just detecting an aircraft on radar doesn’t mean having a ‘firing solution’. In order to have a firing solution, you need accurate azimuth, elevation and range/velocity data. Unlike ground radars, aircraft radars aren’t stationary. Also our aircraft were performing evasive maneuvers to break lock from F-16s which may have made it difficult. We also don't know if there was any electronic interference or jamming. Even IRSTs can’t provide firing solutions on their own, they need ‘range’ data which comes from the Laser range finder which are relatively short range.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby esommuk » 08 Mar 2019 01:16

Shameek wrote:
naird wrote:What does this even mean ? Doesnt make sense


Usually, just detecting an aircraft on radar doesn’t mean having a ‘firing solution’. In order to have a firing solution, you need accurate azimuth, elevation and range/velocity data. Unlike ground radars, aircraft radars aren’t stationary. Also our aircraft were performing evasive maneuvers to break lock from F-16s which may have made it difficult. We also don't know if there was any electronic interference or jamming. Even IRSTs can’t provide firing solutions on their own, they need ‘range’ data which comes from the Laser range finder which are relatively short range.


Makes sense ... R77 has datalink but a/c radar need to feed in

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 08 Mar 2019 01:30

nam wrote:
Karan M wrote:Well said, there is no depth to which the PAF/PA will not go to score wins against the Indian side.. the Indian services seem to be still somewhat in gentleman warrior mode. This should have been wargamed well in advance, under the basic assumption the PA/PAF/PN will do anything for a PR victory.
The Indian bureucracy's wordplay appears even more pointless in this regards.

Assuming that international opinion will step in to take the Indian side or restrict Pak is also stupid. They couldn't care less about what happens and will play an equal equal game with alacrity.


Getting an approval for IAF strike took us decades. 5 decades to be precise. That too under the "non-military target", "we don't want to escalate" buzzword.

IAF would have said yes for every condition from GoI, for the sake of getting a "Yes".

Given this is sort of "first time", I would give them some slack. However good lessons have been learnt.


I meant it as a general note not just this event, we need more Gen Bakshi's in service. Eent ka jawab pathar se.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 08 Mar 2019 01:34

naird wrote:https://www.livefistdefence.com/2019/03/tally-and-locked-abhinandans-last-radio-call-before-he-fired-f-16-kill-shot.html

The R-73 fired by Wing Commander Abhinandan was the only Indian weapon launched during the aerial engagement, leading the Indian Air Force to officially attribute the F-16 kill to him. None of the other jets launched weapons — IAF sources suggest this was owing to a lack of target solutions at beyond visual range, though this will be the subject of investigation. It is also likely that rules of engagement had been modified, though the IAF has refused to confirm or deny. Several such questions remain unanswered at this time, including just why even a large package of fighters were able to test the ‘air superiority’ capabilities of the Su-30 MKI, the flagship of the Indian Air Force.


What does this even mean ? Doesnt make sense


The second (ROE) is the likely reason. The Su-30s maneuvered and used countermeasures to break lock. Question is why didn't they lock and fire themselves? PAF jamming is not the answer, nor is maneuvering alone. We all know how aggressively the IAF has done BVR in ECM heavy environments (including Red Flag and Indra). ROE about don't provoke a fight etc came into play as with the 10km band across the LOC.

Chalo. Next time, even that won't be there.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby nam » 08 Mar 2019 02:09

esommuk wrote:Sir this is pure retaliation against hostile behaviour. Do we need babudom and netas to approve and underwrite? We should have more Abhinnadans in IAF!

‘Yeh naya Hindustan hai ... blah blah’ should not be restricted to Bollywood flicks IMHO!


I can understand the sentiment, however from GoI perspective we need a fight with self defined boundaries, which allows us to exit the fight. We don't want to fall in to Saudi Houthi style no end in sight fight.

I expected GoI to go for intense 1 or 2 week attrition warfare, however it choose not to.

It is fine. A regular 1-2 days skirmish is fine which allows us to impose cost on Pak on a regular basis, instead of 1 major war.

knowing Paks, they will give us another chance on a regular basis.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Lisa » 08 Mar 2019 02:18

Namji,

In some military circles, it is said, before committing to conflict define success, then work your way back from there to the start.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby nam » 08 Mar 2019 02:28

The thing is with Pak, the only thing that can be called success is ability to teleport that country to north or south pole.

We cannot keep them from producing terrorist, even if we occupy it.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Lisa » 08 Mar 2019 02:41

Namji, I wrote this a year ago

"The pukis process the initiative and are currently causing us misery. We are ONLY reactive. This policy is a failure. Period.

India must be the aggressor who is responsible for ALL ceasefire violations. We need to seize the initiative and the equilibrium must lie with us. Until then this thread will remain live."

+

"Forgive me but who cares! Strike further, strike deeper. Let them spend money and material in building up ALL of POK to make it safe. Let the whole of POK live in shelters and holes like rats. As long as their lives are not normal, we win.

Whilst they are in shelters, do what they themselves do, infiltrate POK, mine it, IED it and booby trap it. We have to exponentially impose a cost upon them. Kashmir has destroyed both their domestic and foreign policy and now in its cause we must force them to beggar their nation as well."

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby khan » 08 Mar 2019 02:50

Lisa wrote:Namji, I wrote this a year ago

"The pukis process the initiative and are currently causing us misery. We are ONLY reactive. This policy is a failure. Period.

India must be the aggressor who is responsible for ALL ceasefire violations. We need to seize the initiative and the equilibrium must lie with us. Until then this thread will remain live."

+

"Forgive me but who cares! Strike further, strike deeper. Let them spend money and material in building up ALL of POK to make it safe. Let the whole of POK live in shelters and holes like rats. As long as their lives are not normal, we win.

Whilst they are in shelters, do what they themselves do, infiltrate POK, mine it, IED it and booby trap it. We have to exponentially impose a cost upon them. Kashmir has destroyed both their domestic and foreign policy and now in its cause we must force them to beggar their nation as well."

The problem is the Nuclear overhang. Unless external relations are very carefully managed, there will be UN resolutions and sanctions.

India must always be perceived as the more reasonable and agreeveved party.

This doesn’t mean your policy prescriptions won’t get done, it just means that it will done gradually after giving TSP every opportunity to behave like a normal state (for International consumption).

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Lisa » 08 Mar 2019 02:54

With the deepest respect, Bah Humbug!

If this were true, then show me the same for Israel. With regards to their bomb, I clearly remember pukis saying before our strike, " Full Spectrum Response". Where is it?

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-ne ... xft7L.html

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby UlanBatori » 08 Mar 2019 03:01

"Lack if firing solutions" is because Pakis didn't stay east of Yellow Sea for more than a couple of second each, if that. All they did is fire BVR missiles. Bravery.
But once they fired, I wish all IAF a/c had gone in hot pursuit and splattered a few. Or could it be that all IAF a/c there have only short-range missiles for area defense/ interception?

If this is the case, then it needs to be fixed. Every plane should have 3 missiles minimum: 2 AA and one long-range strike weapon (BRAHMOS?) with address of Dimran/ PA HQ/ Sargodha programmed into it.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 08 Mar 2019 03:04, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby khan » 08 Mar 2019 03:01

Lisa wrote:With the deepest respect, Bah Humbug!

If this were true, then show me the same for Israel. With regards to their bomb, I clearly remember pukis saying before our strike, " Full Spectrum Response". Where is it?

You are doing an apples to oranges comparison here. Firstly the Palestinians don’t have Nukes and secondly, the US keeps having to veto anti-Israel resolutions that pass the UNSC with no other opposition.

India doesn’t have that relationship with the US, and even if India did have such a relationship with a P-5 member, why would India put herself in a situation where India is one veto away from losing control of the narrative? What if that one P-5 Member is bought off?

There is a bigger picture here. IMO, they are doing the right thing. They will give TSP, some time to show progress, if they miss the opportunity, then there will be another kick.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 08 Mar 2019 03:04

Lisa wrote:Namji,

In some military circles, it is said, before committing to conflict define success, then work your way back from there to the start.


Lisa,

What Namo said is what's happening. Pilot projects. Each pilot project is carefully calibrated for maximum impact PR wise (first, stiffens Indian public's pride in nation and GOI, 2nd punctures entire aim of terror, which is to terrorize) or to push the redline & then to see the Pakistani response.

First were the 10:1 response orders at LOC. Result, Pakistan did all it could but more or less things have remained the same.
https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/cove ... 2018-02-15
The order to light up the 'festival' crackled down to Alpha Company post. The post, a mini stone and concrete fort perched atop a hill on the Line of Control (LoC), came alive. It faced the Pakistani army positions-codenamed 'festival', a few hundred metres across the Valley. Unshaven men rushed through a warren of Hesco-lined passages. The gun ports swung open.

The tarpaulins were ripped off the man portable artillery: scope-mounted heavy sniping rifles, each firing a TV remote-sized bullet designed to explode inside an enemy bunker. Shoulder-fired rocket launchers, shooting out mineral water bottle-sized explosive shells designed to punch through tank armour. Heavy machine guns stripped from battle tanks whose dense armour-penetrating rounds could chew concrete.

Alpha post's battlements spat steel fire at 'festival'. One post collapsed in a cloud of smoke. A mission accomplished signal went back. An infiltration attempt by terrorists trying to sneak into the Kashmir Valley had been thwarted. A post had been punished. A point had been made. "Idhar toh hum hi hum hain (we rule this place)," guffaws a burly goggle-eyed Sikh JCO, his moustache waxed into spiky horns.

.................

Today is gunfire day. The rat-a-tat of Pakistani heavy machine gun bullets from all around rake the dry rivulets around Alpha Company's positions. The firing has a purpose. The Pakistani posts are trying to deter another commando raid like the 2016 'surgical strikes' by the Indian army that destroyed camps used to launch terrorists along a 250 km LoC frontage. The fear of retaliation hangs rain cloud-like over the boundary. It is just 48 hours after three Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) terrorists sneaked into Jammu's Sunjuwan army camp to attack the families of sleeping military personnel, killing six soldiers and the father of one, shooting a 14-year-old boy in the head and a pregnant lady in the back.

A terse warning of retribution followed from defence minister Nirmala Sitharaman. Six hours after her warning, Alpha Company is bearing the brunt of the Pakistani cease-fire violations (CFV). The bullets play out a staccato Morse code-like message over Rajouri. The young unshaven major at Alpha Company post crouches below a stone bastion cradling his black AK-47 rifle as if to read it. "They're telling us they are waiting," he grins. "They know we are coming." Retaliation for the Sunjuwan attack will come, as Sitharaman says, "in a time and place of our choosing." "We have options A, B and C?" a general counts on his fingers without naming them.
.............................
In an underground command post a few kilometres away ringed by steel nets designed to trap rockets, a soldier sits motionless before a bank of giant TV screens. The sets flicker with images from thermal imagers along the LoC. The battalion commander, a colonel, plays back a 'festival' transgression on his laptop. Five ghostly blobs captured by thermal sensors. Several bursts of gunfire from multiple directions. Two figures go down. More gunfire. Only two figures remain. The fifth bolts back towards PoK.

"We are proactive here, not reactive," the Colonel says, sipping steaming tea from a glass covered in a camouflage cloth sheath. "I have denied the enemy the freedom of movement. We have achieved moral ascendancy over him."
................................

The army's logic is this-Pakistan didn't honour its solemn January 8, 2004, declaration 'not to permit any territory under Pakistan's control to be used to support terrorism in any manner'. Now, it has to face a war of attrition. "It's very simple really," says a brigadier whose orders can rapidly deliver tonnes of ordnance across an 80 km LoC stretch. "Stop the terrorists," he says, shrugging and holding out his arms, "we'll stop the firing."
..................................

This policy might not sound very different from the policy of punitive fire assaults using artillery and small arms after the 1999 Kargil War. It was a response to the Pakistani army stepping up support to cross-border terrorism that climaxed with the brazen December 13, 2001, attack on India's Parliament. The army sought the Vajpayee government's permission to launch cross-border retaliatory raids against terror training camps. They were turned down. 'Denied permission to conduct trans-LoC operations (now called surgical strikes), the army's only option in Northern Command was to "punish"-using direct and indirect fires-the Pakistan army on the LoC for its continued support to the terrorists,' writes then northern army commander Lt Gen. Rustom K. Nanavatty in his 2013 book, Internal Armed Conflict in India.

The ceasefire turned the tables on the Indian army. 'In a single clever move, Pakistan had trumped India,' Nanavatty writes. It negated the effects of India's military coercion along the LoC, continued supporting terrorists by 'denying' its involvement. India, on the other hand, while agreeing to a ceasefire, failed to grasp an opportunity to declare a punitive policy wherein it reserved the right to respond militarily as appropriate, to any hostile act by Pakistan in the future. (Jai Ho MMS & UPA!!)

The new policy, the army says, reverses this critical loophole. The army now routinely launches fire attacks along the LoC for outrages like the beheading of Indian soldiers and for terrorist attacks.
............................................

The army says the post-2016 proactive strategy is different. Not only have the curbs over trans-LoC operations been lifted, the volume of firepower too has gone up. There are now increasing fire assaults-light artillery and mortars designed to destroy posts along the Pakistan side. Alpha Company's secret weapon is an I-tank or Infantry-tank, a retired T-55 battle tank driven up to the LoC and used as a mobile pillbox, its 100 mm gun providing devastating direct fire.
.............................................


Of course all the analysts are chicken-littleing about Pakistan Army not changing etc.

But seriously, does anyone think that getting beaten up by the IA DAY IN AND NIGHT OUT is not affecting their morale?

Steady stream of shaheeds back to their villages in Pakjab.

Next, Modi & co saw that since Pak Army wont admit to their casualties, something else was needed.

So, economic measures against Pak in various fora. Chalo. Pak grimaced but did nothing.

Pakistans gambits - mass terror attacks, Pathankot, all have flopped. Superb, fast tactical decision making.. no delay, surge of NSG to where its required etc. No more chicken littleing analysis paralysis at Delhi.

Third, Uri surgical strikes. Wait & watch, nothing much happened.

Fourth, these strikes, with IAF hunkered down & fending off a frenzied Pakistani response. Now, in each case, where was the much vaunted noocoolear dehterrence? Hiding in a bunker me thinks. So this is the new India, fine hit us, but we now go into Pakistan and hit you.

I predicted after the Uri strikes, IA SF would get new toys and focus from all quarters. That has happened.
After this one, I will predict its the IAFs turn to have its long pending projects given adequate funding to see them to fruition.

Next. I don't know what;s on the anvil, but I'll wait and watch.

Basically, IAF & IN are best placed to deliver regular jhappads because their modernization is much more on track than IA, which due to its own lack of planning has stuck itself in a manpower trap, and then came OROP. The ratio of capex to revenue budget in IA is around 1:9. In IAF it is around 4:6 and in IN it is around 5:5. You can see which forces are likely to get more capabilities faster & hence able to deploy quicker thappads.

But it won't be just the obvious thappads. It will be extra pressure here and there. Ek dhakka aur do type of diplomacy.

Fun times for Pakistan economy. How long can a beggar nation prop up the PA edifice?

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby UlanBatori » 08 Mar 2019 03:10

Symmetry. First IA Uri. Next IAF Balakot+Muzzafarabad+Chakote?
Next - ur guess as good as mine, but I would think Karachi waterfront property will be going cheap-cheap, one-owner, cleared, flat, great view. Soon.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 08 Mar 2019 03:26

All I can say is it just wont be military. We will see full blown combined arms warfare (MEA + MOF + PM's individual phone calls + IA/IAF/IN strikes + IWT + pressure on this export, this that...)... we in BRF live for the obvious thappads. But Modi & co are not into obvious thappads. They listen very carefully to the people providing advice & proceed accordingly.
Biggest difference from before? No Gandhian pacifist BS. Just cold-hearted rational appraisal of what needs to be done & a huge amount of guts from the Govt in exploring Pakistani response and constantly calling their bluff.

Aim is as above: Yahan par to Hum hi Hum hain!

Pakistan, whether it likes it or not, is being methodically taught its asli aukath. What its really worth. And lets see how long the Fedayeen establishment takes the hammering before either crying uncle, or turning on their mentors, the Pakistani Army.

PS: Despite the limited "capex funding", IA is well on its way to induct more arty in the next few years, than it has for decades now. And a steady stream of basic, but common-sense fixes are dominating the supply chain. Private sector ammo manufacture for instance. Punjj Lloyd will overhaul T-series tanks. A bunch of prvt firms will maintain Russkie mil. eqpt. DRDO now on verge of IOC/FOCing loads of precision systems.... all items without the "sexiness" of a Rafale story..

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby ArjunPandit » 08 Mar 2019 03:35

is the straw that broke camels back? all these will make it look like ..oh yes it was the last straw..oops strike....oh yes and a A yak herder mentioned about camels with ATGM in balochistan too. I am sure it's a good idea for Boston dynamics,

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 08 Mar 2019 03:43

Just calculate the effect on the Indian economy of restocking the IA's, IAF's and IN's WWR.. 40 (i) alone, tens of thousands of crores worth of orders... almost all items from Indian vendors with proper localization and increasing local competence.. and meanwhile, every now and then, the IA just hammers the crap out of the Pak side, the IAF and IN sally forth and put more stress on the Pak side. 1-2 weeks of Pak economy in shut down.

Yes, we have to run the risk of mass terror attacks. But tell me did, MMS's bend over and grab your knees aka pacifiism policy, stop Mumbai 2008 or the umpteen terror attacks? No, if anything, it emboldened Pakistan.

Now, when Pak jernails prized post retirement villas opposite the LOC/IB go up in 155mm fury. When Pak economy can't subsidize even basic eqpt for Pak Army, (everything has to be hoarded for the big war), when fedayeen attacks increase (they see the PA is nude), when China asks for Pak army's daughter in laws in loans for every thingmajig given.. how long before we don't see a complete economic collapse in Pak or at least the makings of one..

Yup. No all out war. Only Modi giving foreign delegates Gandhi peace prize and accepting peace awards for doing what the world needs for peace, give Pakistan a terrific beating.

And all this without the cost of an all-out war etc. After a while international observers may just yawn. Oh, its that India-Pakistan again, big deal. When Pakistan goes around yelling noocoolear issue, 4000000 troops in Kashemere.. people will say "oh well sort it out guys". And yet, the Indian guns keep hammering them.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby naird » 08 Mar 2019 04:33

Shameek wrote:
naird wrote:What does this even mean ? Doesnt make sense


Usually, just detecting an aircraft on radar doesn’t mean having a ‘firing solution’. In order to have a firing solution, you need accurate azimuth, elevation and range/velocity data. Unlike ground radars, aircraft radars aren’t stationary. Also our aircraft were performing evasive maneuvers to break lock from F-16s which may have made it difficult. We also don't know if there was any electronic interference or jamming. Even IRSTs can’t provide firing solutions on their own, they need ‘range’ data which comes from the Laser range finder which are relatively short range.


Shameek - all you have mentioned translates to there was no Radar lock ! If there would have been then a shot would have taken place. Unless ROE BS kicked in - or the bandits must have scooted off once Sukhoi recovered from evasive maneuvers..

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Bharadwaj » 08 Mar 2019 05:21

The f16 is said to have taken shots from 40-50km... even if the sukhois had the r27 instead of the r77 they could have fired back. Even the mirages were said to be locked on and did not retaliate. Perhaps the cap were only cleared for wvr and equipped only for that?

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Rakesh » 08 Mar 2019 05:52

The one thing I can guess was to have the PAF cross over the LoC. Till then no missiles were to be fired.

Launching BVR missiles into Pakistani airspace would have likely escalated the conflict. In the scenario, we would have shot down a number of their birds in the strike package. That would have caused tremendous embarrassment to the Pakistan Air Force which would only escalate the situation further. And then we would retaliate back. And with each mauling the IAF would have given them, the escalation ladder would have only gotten higher.

Remember, despite all the drama and rhona-dhona that our media does...the Indian populace is largely resilient. As hurtful as it will be, we can afford to swallow losses - both in material and in personnel. We can lose a strike package and still be ready to conduct more.

In Pakistan, a failure of that measure (for example > 50% of a strike package being shot down) would bring utter pandemonium to the Pakistani populace. The Pakistani Generals would then be frothing at the mouth and calling for Ghazwa-E-Hind. This is what 70+ years of elevating the Pakistan Air Force to near God like levels has done to the psyche of the people in Pakistan. Their air force is sacrosanct and is second only to the Almighty.

While escalation by Pakistan was calculated into the equation by us, over escalation was to be avoided.

Remember the announcement? The Indian Air Force struck non-military targets in PoK.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Rakesh » 08 Mar 2019 05:54

India-Pakistan dogfight: A minute-by-minute account of Abhinandan's air battle
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/i ... 2019-03-07

9:52 AM: Indian Air Force's Netra surveillance drone and the Northern Air Command detect 10 F-16s taking off three airbases in Pakistan. The F-16s fly in three separate formations. They merge into a single formation after entering Paksitan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).

9:54 AM: Indian Air Force swings into action. IAF's MiG 21 Bisons, Sukhoi Su-30MKIs and Mirage 2000s are scrambled to intercept the incoming Pakistani fighter jets.

9.58 AM: India sounds an alert and sends out a message to the Pakistani fighters asking them to go back.

9.59 AM: As per protocol, India sounds second alert and sends another message asking the Pakistani jets to go back.

10:00 AM: The Pakistan Air Force fighter jets enter Indian airspace.

10:01 AM: Indian Air Force jets respond with full force and engage the F-16s. The F-16s are also targetted by surface-to-air missiles (SAMs). The response forces nine PAF F-16s to return after intruding just a kilometre into Indian territory.

10:02 AM: One F-16 manages to enter deep inside Indian territory. The jet targets an oil depot and an ammunition point in a military zone and tries to attack an Indian Army brigade headquarters.

10:03 AM: One Indian Air Force Sukhoi Su-30 and one MiG-21 Bison engage this F-16 in a dogfight manoeuvre called "defensive split". The two Indian jets trap the Pakistani jet in between them -- the MiG 21 flies in front while the Su-30 chases the F-16 from behind, firing at it. The F-16 is forced to flee using a dog fight manoeuvre called "wingover".

10:04 AM: The Su-16 stops chasing the F-16 and hovers around the oil field in order to guard it. The MiG-21 Bison, being flown by Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, gives the F-16 chase. The F-16 is flying out of territory and Wing Commander Abhinandan 'locks' F-16 with an R-73 air-to-air missile.

10:08 AM
: Wing Commander Abhinandan fires his R73 missile and successfully hits the F-16, bringing it down. Abhinandan performs a dangerous manoeuvre called "high-g barrel roll". He is in the range of Pakistani surface to air artillery and surface to air missiles (SAM). Either a SAM or air artillery hits the MiG-21. Abhinandan ejects.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby khan » 08 Mar 2019 06:24

Rakesh wrote:India-Pakistan dogfight: A minute-by-minute account of Abhinandan's air battle
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/i ... 2019-03-07
...
10:01 AM: Indian Air Force jets respond with full force and engage the F-16s. The F-16s are also targetted by surface-to-air missiles (SAMs). The response forces nine PAF F-16s to return after intruding just a kilometre into Indian territory.
...


Thank you saar for bringing this up, it explains why Indian planes never fired a BVR shot, why fire a shot from the edge of the engagement envelope when the planes you are targeting are already running away and already have a SAM coming up their tailpipe.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby sudeepj » 08 Mar 2019 06:33

Rakesh wrote:India-Pakistan dogfight: A minute-by-minute account of Abhinandan's air battle
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/i ... 2019-03-07

9:52 AM: Indian Air Force's Netra surveillance drone and the Northern Air Command detect 10 F-16s taking off three airbases in Pakistan. The F-16s fly in three separate formations. They merge into a single formation after entering Paksitan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).


This doesnt sound like the complete story.. We know that there were Mirage III/V strikers in the PAF package, that launched standoff weapons, the H4 denel raptor. My reconstruction of this battle based on fragmentory reports is as below. This is just my guess, so take it for what its worth.:

1. A Large strike package with F16s, Mirages & JF17s was launched. The Mirages were tasked with launching standoff weapons. One group of 4 x F16s providing top cover to disrupt any CAP movement towards the Mirages. 4 x F 16s providing cover to all of the retreating fighters after the sneak attack.
2. Three Indian CAPs were in the air and moved into the battlebox with 2x Mirage 2000s, 2 x Mig21s and 4 x Su
3. The Mirages & the Sukhois were around important/vital points such as Srinagar/Udhampur airbases. The attack was expected to be on airbases, not a useless drop 1km into the border mission.
4. Of these, the Sukhois were forced to disengage by long range BVR shots by the group of F16s tasked with providing air cover to the Mirages. These F16s then turned back.
5. At this point, the battle managers knew that Pakis had fired AAMs and the ROEs were changed/adapted. Would all the Indian pilots in the air have known that Pakis had launched the AAMs?
6. The Mig 21s using their mach2+ dash, were able to press home their attack and caught one or more F16s fleeing after their mission of launching the AAMs was over.
7. F16 maneuvered hard in the vertical plane, but got an R73 up its tail pipe.
8. Around the same time, the final F16 wave launched at least two AMRAAMs at the 2x Mig 21s, Abhinandana's plane was shot down, but the other Mig 21 was able to dodge the AMRAAM.

So far, Indian Airforce hasnt really used its heavy air dominance fighter, Su30. The day this fighter is unleashed, with the kind of numbers we have, with the amount of internal fuel it has, the kind of weapons load it can fly with, the PAF will not be able to fly.

Added later:
http://www.combataircraft.com/en/Tactic ... ive-Split/

Image

In the defensive split, the attackers have to choose between two targets. When they choose one they leave the other free as a potential threat to sandwich them. The defensive split is executed by a two-aircraft element in both horizontal and vertical planes. From the attacker's point of view it is preferable to follow the high man. The fighter that has split upwards will lose energy faster than the low man. Provided that the attackers entered the fight witha surplus of energy, the high man represents their best chance of a kill. Furthermore it will take the low man longer to get back into a fight high above him than it will for the high man to drop down. Also, the low man has more difficulty in spotting a fight above him than does the high man looking down. From the defender's point of view, the low man must be ready to pitch up into the fight as soon as it becomes clear that he is not menaced, while the high man must attempt to bring the fight down as quickly as possible to enable the low man to support him. Of course, it is possible that an attacker, faced with a defensive split, will break off and look for an easier victim, in which case the split has succeeded.

The defensive split is used by a pair to divide the ^ attention of the attackers. The split is made in both the vertical and horizontal planes. Whichever one the attackers choose to follow leaves them liable to counterattack by the other.


This supports the idea that the responding Indian CAPs were attacked either by the last wave/group of F16s, or there was a lone F16 from among that wave that wanted extra helping of Jeehard that day and got shot down by Abhinandana.
Last edited by sudeepj on 08 Mar 2019 06:40, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Rakesh » 08 Mar 2019 06:36

khan wrote:Thank you saar for bringing this up, it explains why Indian planes never fired a BVR shot, why fire a shot from the edge of the engagement envelope when the planes you are targeting are already running away and already have a SAM coming up their tailpipe.

You are welcome Khan. I would love to know from which three airbases in Pakistan those F-16s took off. The IAF will surely know, but will never say. There are four squadrons of F-16s in the PAF. They are;

No 5 Falcons Squadron - at PAF Base Shahbaz in Jacobabad. No 5 Sqn flies the F-16C/D Block 50/52.
No 9 Griffins Squadron - at PAF Base Mushaf in Sargodha. No 9 Sqn flies the F-16A/B (upgraded to near Block 50/52 standards).
No 11 Arrows Squadron - at PAF Base Mushaf in Sargodha. No 11 Sqn flies the F-16A/B (upgraded to near Block 50/52 standards).
No 19 Sherdills Squadron - at PAF Base Bholari in Thatta. No 19 Sqn flies the F-16A/B. Ex-Jordanian Air Force F-16s.

If we can determine that F-16s took off from PAF Base Shahbaz in Jacobabad, we can ascertain for sure make an educated guess that the Block 50 and/or Block 52 took part in the PAF strike. The IAF will know for sure via Netra (from electronic signatures), but will obviously never state that. Regardless, that would have huge implications. Positives for India though :)

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Rakesh » 08 Mar 2019 06:40

sudeepj wrote:This doesnt sound like the complete story.. We know that there were Mirage III/V strikers in the PAF package, that launched standoff weapons, the H4 denel raptor. My reconstruction of this battle based on fragmentory reports is as below. This is just my guess, so take it for what its worth.:

You are indeed correct. There were Mirages and JF-17s in the strike package as well.

Surprised as to why the India Today article did not mention that.

sudeepj wrote:So far, Indian Airforce hasnt really used its heavy air dominance fighter, Su30. The day this fighter is unleashed, with the kind of numbers we have, with the amount of internal fuel it has, the kind of weapons load it can fly with, the PAF will not be able to fly.

Well said. Perhaps it was held back because it was felt the conflict would not escalate to a level that it was necessary to reveal all her capabilities. Perhaps you or someone equally knowledgeable can comment more on that.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby ramana » 08 Mar 2019 07:12

Rakesh wrote:10:03 AM: One Indian Air Force Sukhoi Su-30 and one MiG-21 Bison engage this F-16 in a dogfight manoeuvre called "defensive split". The two Indian jets trap the Pakistani jet in between them -- the MiG 21 flies in front while the Su-30 chases the F-16 from behind, firing at it. The F-16 is forced to flee using a dog fight manoeuvre called "wingover".


The underline does not reconcile with the IAF spokesman statement that MiG-21 was the only plane that fired a missile.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Sumeet » 08 Mar 2019 07:37

ramana wrote:
Rakesh wrote:10:03 AM: One Indian Air Force Sukhoi Su-30 and one MiG-21 Bison engage this F-16 in a dogfight manoeuvre called "defensive split". The two Indian jets trap the Pakistani jet in between them -- the MiG 21 flies in front while the Su-30 chases the F-16 from behind, firing at it. The F-16 is forced to flee using a dog fight manoeuvre called "wingover".


The underline does not reconcile with the IAF spokesman statement that MiG-21 was the only plane that fired a missile.


Perhaps it was gun firing from MKI, because it has been maintained in all articles that only Mig acquired a lock on F-16.

Didn't hear about Su-30 MKI getting a lock on F-16.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Sumeet » 08 Mar 2019 07:38

khan wrote:
Rakesh wrote:India-Pakistan dogfight: A minute-by-minute account of Abhinandan's air battle
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/i ... 2019-03-07
...
10:01 AM: Indian Air Force jets respond with full force and engage the F-16s. The F-16s are also targetted by surface-to-air missiles (SAMs). The response forces nine PAF F-16s to return after intruding just a kilometre into Indian territory.
...


Thank you saar for bringing this up, it explains why Indian planes never fired a BVR shot, why fire a shot from the edge of the engagement envelope when the planes you are targeting are already running away and already have a SAM coming up their tailpipe.


Imagine when S-400 is deployed there along with advanced Akash and MR SAM. TSP won't be able to fly CAP anywhere near it's borders :)

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby sudeepj » 08 Mar 2019 07:52

There was a map with time stamps and plane types doing the rounds.. Ill try to put together the india today account and that map.. if someone can point it to me! :-)

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby sudeepj » 08 Mar 2019 07:53

Sumeet wrote:
ramana wrote:
The underline does not reconcile with the IAF spokesman statement that MiG-21 was the only plane that fired a missile.


Perhaps it was gun firing from MKI, because it has been maintained in all articles that only Mig acquired a lock on F-16.

Didn't hear about Su-30 MKI getting a lock on F-16.


MKI is equipped with the R73 and the helment mounted sight.. It does not need to fire its guns. I think, the Su30 CAP was forced to not come towards the PAF strike package by the 4 AMRAAM shots.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby fanne » 08 Mar 2019 07:55

Sorry if I sound patronizing...but the way we are covering BVR fight is very bookish. Please see below video (from say mark 1:30 minutes)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lqKEn3ptoE
The effective range of AIM-120 or R-77 is very less. They only have few second of powered flight (AIM 120- 4 seconds, R-77 8 sec). After that flight, they have high kinetic energy (M 4), which they trade to either gain height (to catch an opponent at a higher altitude) or trade off height to gain more speed/range. 120 Km is all they can travel if they just flew in straight path. At 50 Km they are useless against target that are even moderately fast (by now they are at M1 speed). If the target maneuvers in the opposite direction of speed greater than M1, missile cannot do anything. Plus one can also Jam it.
I highly doubt TSPAF fired missile at 50 Km distance. Even a WW2 era fighter can out maneuver it at that distance (if it EW notified of a BVR lock).
IAF truly misses a potent BVR, Rafael deal should be looked at from this angle.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby V_Raman » 08 Mar 2019 07:56

No silly unthinking posts. This is a serious forum and we expect more than "I think" and silly one-liners.

Next one on the same lines gets a warning.

-KM

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby yensoy » 08 Mar 2019 08:02

Do we know in the public domain where is our army brigade HQ which was being attacked?
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Edited
KM

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby shaun » 08 Mar 2019 08:08

fanne wrote:Sorry if I sound patronizing...but the way we are covering BVR fight is very bookish. Please see below video (from say mark 1:30 minutes)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lqKEn3ptoE
The effective range of AIM-120 or R-77 is very less. They only have few second of powered flight (AIM 120- 4 seconds, R-77 8 sec). After that flight, they have high kinetic energy (M 4), which they trade to either gain height (to catch an opponent at a higher altitude) or trade off height to gain more speed/range. 120 Km is all they can travel if they just flew in straight path. At 50 Km they are useless against target that are even moderately fast (by now they are at M1 speed). If the target maneuvers in the opposite direction of speed greater than M1, missile cannot do anything. Plus one can also Jam it.
I highly doubt TSPAF fired missile at 50 Km distance. Even a WW2 era fighter can out maneuver it at that distance (if it EW notified of a BVR lock).
IAF truly misses a potent BVR, Rafael deal should be looked at from this angle.
what is the longest BVR kill till date against fast moving targets ??
Status of KS-172 is unknown

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby fanne » 08 Mar 2019 08:25

AIM 120 has grand total of 10 kills over its many decades (30 years approx. and not 40 I guess I am too tired to count). Many from 2 miles to 6 miles distance, that too incoming planes...mainly against Serbia/Iraq. It has also scored few friendly fire kills (hence the importance of restrictive ROE)
Last edited by fanne on 08 Mar 2019 08:38, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 08 Mar 2019 08:32

shaun wrote: what is the longest BVR kill till date against fast moving targets ??
Status of KS-172 is unknown


Toss up between a drone shot down by R-37M shot by MiG-31 with guidance take over by Su-30 @ 300km and Phoenix shots at around 80nm/150km (supposedly) by Iranian AF against Iraqis. Supposedly, because I am going by old memory. Tom Cooper may have something more accurate!

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 08 Mar 2019 08:33

fanne wrote:AIM 120 has grand total of 10 kills over its many decades (40 YEARS). Many from 2 miles to 6 miles distance, that too incoming planes...mainly against Serbia/Iraq. It has also scored few friendly fire kills (hence the importance of restrictive ROE)


Huh? 40 years? It entered service in the 1990s.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 08 Mar 2019 08:36

Sumeet wrote:
ramana wrote:
The underline does not reconcile with the IAF spokesman statement that MiG-21 was the only plane that fired a missile.


Perhaps it was gun firing from MKI, because it has been maintained in all articles that only Mig acquired a lock on F-16.

Didn't hear about Su-30 MKI getting a lock on F-16.


If the Indian side even locked onto the F-16s they are not going to talk about it. Nor will they talk about what countermeasures were used. At Kargil our Mirage 2000s and MiG-29s were happily locking away on approaching F-16s. Some part of the oh so proper attitude supposedly displayed by our Gandhian fighter pilots in this episode, doesn't exactly sound.. accurate. ;)

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby UlanBatori » 08 Mar 2019 08:57

ramana wrote:
Rakesh wrote:10:03 AM: One Indian Air Force Sukhoi Su-30 and one MiG-21 Bison engage this F-16 in a dogfight manoeuvre called "defensive split". The two Indian jets trap the Pakistani jet in between them -- the MiG 21 flies in front while the Su-30 chases the F-16 from behind, firing at it. The F-16 is forced to flee using a dog fight manoeuvre called "wingover".

The underline does not reconcile with the IAF spokesman statement that MiG-21 was the only plane that fired a missile.

Thx. I think (Rakesh! :shock: Actually, as Gregory Peck said in Force 10 From Navarone: "I don't THINK, I KNOW") that quote was from the "Friend of IAF" who posted a very authentic-looking timeline down to seconds, with terms such as "wing over" etc. Doing the circuits on Twitter/WhatsApp as well. Sorry but the purpose of that post came at the end, where s(he) claimed that if the UPA had bought Rafales for the IAF, Abhinandan would not be a POW etc. I thought that was in very poor taste, and hence the credibility of the entire post dropped to 0. His claim was that the Wing Cdr after firing at the F-16 basically stalled his own engine by pulling an extreme vertical climb and "wingover" to escape from TSP side of Yellow Sea. Will wait for the Official Crash Inquiry Report if it ever comes, but there is next to zero probability that a pilot as determined as the WingCdr would stall his engine in a panic to get out.

So now a second major booboo has been caught in the Report. Good, that nails it.

FYI, a Wingover is[\url] basically the same as the [url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immelmann_turn]Immelmann turn, a maneuver invented by the German pilot of that name in WW1.In those days, the main armament was a gun fixed in front of the pilot, so the effect of the Wingover was a pilot who was being chased from behind, suddenly comes right down and zooms head-on at the attacker, firing his gun. Was extremely effective until Immelmann tried it once too many times... You ARE turning right into the machine-gun sights of the enemy...
(ramana: things that I read from my grandfather's library on summer vacation. Come 2 think of it, I DID read a few Biggles though not from there).


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