MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 02 Apr 2019 16:21

rohitvats wrote:
Karan M wrote:Welcome back.
Thanks, Karan!

welcome home...excellent article..one small suggestion..highlight sections rebutting claims for quoting on twitter

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 02 Apr 2019 17:01

rohit vats aka kesri dwaj

you are doing a commendable job by taking on Coupta types .
Any chance of Hindi translation please or roping some one in for the job>

Consider the reach !!

naird · Post by **naird** » 02 Apr 2019 17:12

Karan M wrote:Another thing, not a single ZDK-03 has been used in the engagement. Compare and contrast to our usage of Netra which we used in the initial Balakot strikes.

Just shows that the PRC stuff hyped and mentioned by PAF fanboys as the ultimate.. in reality is anything, but.

Karan,

Speaking of AWACS, AEWCS - since these were not in air as confirmed by sameer joshi also tells the reason why IAF has been unable to conclusively release F16 shootdown proof. I mean we all know it , but the only way to crush pakis is to make them doubt their armed forces. I am under the impression these platforms has the ability to record actions taking over the battlefield for further analysis.Since these platforms were not present , nothing could be recorded. The only possibility exists is of Abhi's gun camera - which is with pakis. Any other possibilities ?

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 02 Apr 2019 17:13

i think we on BRF can deploy this. IndraD great idea. I wont mind helping on this! For all i know Desi newspapers might be more amenable to print nationalistic thoughts as compared to english media!

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 02 Apr 2019 17:16

A 1-Click Google Translator Option on PeeAref! Just imagine the BENIS dhaga "translated" to Urdu!

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 02 Apr 2019 17:19

UlanBatori wrote:A 1-Click Google Translator Option on PeeAref! Just imagine the BENIS dhaga "translated" to Urdu!

try that first on chrome

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Apr 2019 17:49

naird wrote:
Karan M wrote:Another thing, not a single ZDK-03 has been used in the engagement. Compare and contrast to our usage of Netra which we used in the initial Balakot strikes.

Just shows that the PRC stuff hyped and mentioned by PAF fanboys as the ultimate.. in reality is anything, but.
Karan,

Speaking of AWACS, AEWCS - since these were not in air as confirmed by sameer joshi also tells the reason why IAF has been unable to conclusively release F16 shootdown proof. I mean we all know it , but the only way to crush pakis is to make them doubt their armed forces. I am under the impression these platforms has the ability to record actions taking over the battlefield for further analysis.Since these platforms were not present , nothing could be recorded. The only possibility exists is of Abhi's gun camera - which is with pakis. Any other possibilities ?

That's why I said the Phalcon has a radius of coverage of 400km. It need not have reached its station point (which would have usually placed it 150km within India and looking 250km into Pak, for example) to see what happened on our LOC. Chances are that even enroute to the station point, it did record what happened in the Bison vs F-16 clash and we do have AWACS coverage of the incident, apart from the ground based radars. Note as the Phalcon arrived, it had urgently vectored additional Su-30s and MiG-29s into the area, something which it wouldn't have done if it had arrived much later and also, if it didn't have an idea of what was going on.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Apr 2019 18:15

IACCS
http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/media/Aer ... S.jpg.html

"Records real time data and replays it later or online".

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 02 Apr 2019 18:43

Apart from this it is only disconnection of internet services in POK which stopped the F16 debris and Paki pilot video coming out. I hope GOI through various means has got some of those videos .

naird · Post by **naird** » 02 Apr 2019 21:14

Karan M wrote:
That's why I said the Phalcon has a radius of coverage of 400km. It need not have reached its station point (which would have usually placed it 150km within India and looking 250km into Pak, for example) to see what happened on our LOC. Chances are that even enroute to the station point, it did record what happened in the Bison vs F-16 clash and we do have AWACS coverage of the incident, apart from the ground based radars. Note as the Phalcon arrived, it had urgently vectored additional Su-30s and MiG-29s into the area, something which it wouldn't have done if it had arrived much later and also, if it didn't have an idea of what was going on.

I doubt this Karan. Joshi's tweets suggests that AWACS was not even air borne when the engagement started. I guess the scramble was for AWACS as well and by the time it vectored in, most of the action would have been over. Looks like AWACS must not have recorded any such activity. However your other post is interesting ! Looks like our Command and control nodal centers does have the capability to record and playback activities for all our AD and airborne platforms. They must have had recordings of this incident.
Time will tell if that can be released without comprimising operational capability.

anishns · Post by **anishns** » 02 Apr 2019 21:47

Now this!

https://www.rediff.com/news/special/f16 ... 190402.htm

Buy F16 and neutralize PAF

Lifafa pahunch gaya hai

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Apr 2019 21:56

anishns wrote:Now this!

https://www.rediff.com/news/special/f16 ... 190402.htm

Buy F16 and neutralize PAF

Lifafa pahunch gaya hai

What a bunch of crock.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Apr 2019 22:24

naird wrote:
Karan M wrote:
That's why I said the Phalcon has a radius of coverage of 400km. It need not have reached its station point (which would have usually placed it 150km within India and looking 250km into Pak, for example) to see what happened on our LOC. Chances are that even enroute to the station point, it did record what happened in the Bison vs F-16 clash and we do have AWACS coverage of the incident, apart from the ground based radars. Note as the Phalcon arrived, it had urgently vectored additional Su-30s and MiG-29s into the area, something which it wouldn't have done if it had arrived much later and also, if it didn't have an idea of what was going on.
I doubt this Karan. Joshi's tweets suggests that AWACS was not even air borne when the engagement started. I guess the scramble was for AWACS as well and by the time it vectored in, most of the action would have been over. Looks like AWACS must not have recorded any such activity. However your other post is interesting ! Looks like our Command and control nodal centers does have the capability to record and playback activities for all our AD and airborne platforms. They must have had recordings of this incident.
Time will tell if that can be released without comprimising operational capability.

Yes, the AWACS part is conjecture, I would classify it as possible, but not probable.

Lets go back to the twitter posts. Sameer's posts state the following.

First,

The IAF did not have any AWACS on station, the PAF had a Saab 2000 ERIEYE 100 km at 30,000 feet, which controlled the battle space out to 150 Km+ inside India, guiding the HiTech F-16s positioning for Ambushing IAF jets in a designated kill zone in south J&K.

Note the specific phrase, on station, not "not en route" etc.

Second,

The PAF achieved its aim in creating numerical superiority on the LC at a time when no IAF AWACS was in air, with only 8 IAF aircraft to oppose its daring attack. The small number of IAF pilots did well to fill the gaps in a timely manner.

correlate with the first, "in air" at the point of activity - i.e. on station.

Third,

The engagement lasted approx. 1000-1030h. By the time IAF's AWACS reached on station, vectoring 2 MiG-29UPGs and more Su-30MKIs towards the Rajouri area, the PAF had turned turtle, leaving in a jiffy after the F16 loss.

Note that once the AWACS reached on station it vectored more assets into play, again this implies it reached soon after the event, otherwise the assets would have already been there via IACCS or the situation having cooled down, would not warranted more assets in play.

Lets assume it was a Phalcon. It had to travel a distance of ~ 1000 km, Agra to the area in question to look 200km deep into Pak. As IL-76 has a coverage of around 400km, and we need to look just at the area in question, and not 250km into Pak, distance to be covered is around 750 km. IL-76 has a cruising speed of around 700 km/hr. So it would take around a hr to reach the station. Typically, the IAF or any operator would rotate assets to ensure a gap between assets would be minimized, one AWACS is on patrol, another in maintenance, and the third one would be sent onwards to take over towards the end of the 1st one's patrol time (covering the transit time). So, if it was en route (as would be logical), it is entirely possible it did manage to get coverage of the fag end of the air battle.

Of course, IACCS record capability makes the whole situation above moot, but still a possibility.

Bottomline, we need more AWACS.

nainanmark · Post by **nainanmark** » 02 Apr 2019 22:38

I have a more technical question here. The Russian doctrine in BVR since they had the Su 27 is to launch a 2 missile salvo of different seeker types at RMax to turn the hostiles defensive and then close up the range to follow up with WVR heat seekers. Do the IAF follow this? Also given the highly mountainous terrain in the area and with an AWACS datalink would the Su 30 not be at an advantage by going in relying on the IRST and using a heatseeker like the R27T and not using the radar at all to avoid advertising its presence till its in the kill zone of the heat seeker. Makes me wonder if the engagement had any Sukhois at all or was it all MiG 21 given the Bison holds its own quite well with the sensor upgrades. I also remember reading that the Bison upgrade had sophisticated jamming equipment so the story that the F16 jammed the MiG 21 seems like a fertile piece of fiction. More likely the Bison crept up to the F16 locked the heat seeker on and launched before the PAF even discovered their presence. They retaliated with a salvo of 120s and got lucky with one hit.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Apr 2019 22:59

nainanmark wrote:I have a more technical question here. The Russian doctrine in BVR since they had the Su 27 is to launch a 2 missile salvo of different seeker types at RMax to turn the hostiles defensive and then close up the range to follow up with WVR heat seekers. Do the IAF follow this?

This doctrine is quite restrictive and not optimal for todays era because, for one, the R27ER is SARH. The R27ET does not have mid-course guidance, so is not really a true BVR missile as the Mica IR is. Think of it more like an old gen ASRAAM.

You can substitute the R27ER with a R77 and keep the R27TE, and then wait for NEZ to launch it. But that's provided you get close enough for optimal launch.

At RMax1, you use SARH missiles even though the R27ER is longer ranged than the AMRAAM/RVV AE ostensibly, in reality you are taking a risk by holding yourself in place, while your opponent fires and leaves, & with lower Pk as well. If you launch a R77 at RMax1 and then a R27TE, chances are both may miss.

In short, you can do the R27ER+TE launch method, but the Pk may well be much lower than expected.

Also given the highly mountainous terrain in the area and with an AWACS datalink would the Su 30 not be at an advantage by going in relying on the IRST and using a heatseeker like the R27T and not using the radar at all to avoid advertising its presence till its in the kill zone of the heat seeker.

There was no AWACS on station apparently.
IRST's + LRFs on the Su-30 have limited range finding capability. You are being attacked by F-16s from a height differential. The F-16s know where you are. The AWACS knows where you. What gain is there from going with a limited range passive sensor? And then exposing yourself to your opponents by trying to go for a merge?

Makes me wonder if the engagement had any Sukhois at all or was it all MiG 21 given the Bison holds its own quite well with the sensor upgrades.

The Bison is nowhere in the class of the Su-30s sensor capability. Add receding targets, and the Su-30 is still BVR capable. The Bison will be a point defense asset at best, given its small dish Kopyo radar.

I also remember reading that the Bison upgrade had sophisticated jamming equipment so the story that the F16 jammed the MiG 21 seems like a fertile piece of fiction.

There are 4x pylons on the MiG-21 Bison that can carry 3 AAMs plus 1 Elta jammer. The centerline pylon on the fuselage holds fuel. In this case judging by wreckage pics the PAF provided us (and then deleted once they realized it showed a used R73E), we know it carried 4 AAMs, and hence its likely there was no jamming pod used by the Bisons. Likely, not sure.

Also, the jamming being spoken of is communications jamming by the PAF's Blinder Business jets (old Falcon DA-20s), they have 2 of them. Not radar jamming. Of course, they are claiming that etc, but we have the reality that our fighters were engaged in a BVR fight without being deterred.

More likely the Bison crept up to the F16 locked the heat seeker on and launched before the PAF even discovered their presence. They retaliated with a salvo of 120s and got lucky with one hit.

The accounts show the Bisons were vectored onto the F-16s (there is no crept up at that speed, time etc with the limited radar on the Bisons), and engaged them ASAP.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 02 Apr 2019 23:11

so... the IAF was rotating the awacs coverage, and the gap is what the PAF was looking to exploit. the Su30's being there was important because of their ability to detect the environment at long range. now the daylight raid makes more sense and so does their inability to hit anything of importance thanks to the Su30s holding fort and the M2K's scaring off the raiders. the M3/5's would have been cannon fodder and the JF17s just there for show, it was all about the 2 x F16 groups to sneak over - do some H&D taknikis and then vamoose before anything bad happened

so - without the full kit, outnumbered and potentially at a disadvantage, the IAF chased off the raiders and took one of their prized assets down for the loss of 1 bird

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 02 Apr 2019 23:28

arvin · Post by **arvin** » 02 Apr 2019 23:33

nainanmark wrote: ....
They retaliated with a salvo of 120s and got lucky with one hit.

The mig 21 was not hit by aim 120. Look at the pics of r73,r77 and the plane itself. All show effects of belly landing rather than a missile hit. Yak herder's scenario looks closer to the truth. The mig must have ingested something from the explosion of the f16 it targeted.
All their Aim 120 were squirted out on seeing sukhoi dance in the sky.

MeshaVishwas · Post by **MeshaVishwas** » 03 Apr 2019 00:01

^^Thanks for the upload.
Very good explanation by Air Marshal Sinha.
So, earlier speculation that the M2K I were north of the Pir Panjal and Rambhas prowling south were wrong(?)
And also this video increases my faith in the theory of a Soosai attack by a momeen(Ly 80 "Gonad") against another momeen (FC-1 Xia Ul Haq)!

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 03 Apr 2019 00:02

Brilliant! The map and depictions above are well in line with the original map from AM Chopra on twitter (Chopsy Turvey). The AM above was the gent in charge of the Rafale acquisition as well.

Oh what a slap to H&D, poor BVR tactics by PAF.

So far: AVM Subramaniam's account, AM Sinha's video above, AM Chopra's image + accounts from Gokhale and others (Aroor etc.) show a lot of coherence. Even Sqdrn Ldr Sameer Joshi's account has many details similar to those of the others, but only swaps the locations of the JF-17/Mirage & Mirage 2000s engagement. One key detail only Sameer ji says (and others don't) is the claim there was no AWACS. AM Chopra's image shows a Phalcon located in the vicinity.

Things everyone agrees on:

24 a/c flotilla from PAF
IACCS networks all IAF/IA/IN/civvie radars
No surprise
We had CAPs + ORP MiG-21s in airbases nearby
Mirage 3/5/ JF-17 strike package deterred by Mirage 2000s (Sinha sir adds they jettisoned their bombs in panic)
Su-30s held off F-16s in BVR while another bunch couldn't carry out an effective LGB strike
Poor BVR tactics from PAF
Bisons bounce the strike F-16s
Abhinandan's courage, skills, and aggressiveness
Confirmed kill of F-16: R/T calls, radar signature and parachutes

Y I Patel · Post by **Y I Patel** » 03 Apr 2019 00:39

Sameer Joshi has a few references to “red on red” situations. What does that mean?

Also, what does cranking mean?

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 03 Apr 2019 00:41

Y I Patel wrote:Sameer Joshi has a few references to “red on red” situations. What does that mean?

Both sides are weapons hot and (usually) in range of each others weapons.

Also, what does cranking mean?

viewtopic.php?p=2339200#p2339200

Y I Patel · Post by **Y I Patel** » 03 Apr 2019 00:49

Thanks Karan!

Aditya G · Post by **Aditya G** » 03 Apr 2019 01:43

Three live bombs fired by Pakistani fighter aircraft are still lying at LoC
https://theprint.in/defence/three-live- ... oc/215825/

New Delhi: Three unexploded H-4 glide-bombs, weighing 1,000 kg each, fired by Pakistan Air Force fighters on 27 February are still lying near the Line of Control (LoC) in the Rajouri sector of Jammu and Kashmir, but Indian forces have not been able to reach them because of intense shelling from the other side.

Top government sources told ThePrint that the PAF fired 11 bombs on 27 February, targeting Indian military installations in the Rajouri sector, besides five AMRAAM missiles fired by the F-16s targeting the Indian Air Force’s Sukhoi Su-30 MKI fighters.

“Three bombs are lying just near the LoC and within Indian territory. However, we have not been able to reach them because of intense shelling by the Pakistan Army,” a source said.

Sources said the bombs have fallen into a small gorge, so they’re difficult to reach.

What is an H-4 bomb?

The H-4 Stand-Off Weapon is a precision-guided glide bomb, somewhat similar to the SPICE-2000 used by the Indian Air Force to target the Jaish-e-Mohammed training camp in Balakot on 26 February.

The H-4, developed by South African firm Denel Dynamics, is now manufactured in Pakistan under licenced production. The Mirage aircraft in use with the PAF are capable of firing these bombs, while there were also plans to integrate them with the JF-17, a Chinese-Pakistani collaboration.

The Pakistani ploy
Pakistan had used a combination of Mirages, JF-17s and F-16s to carry out the unsuccessful raid.

Around 9.30 am on 27 February, the Indian air defence system, on full alert, noticed a build-up of about 25 PAF aircraft across the LoC.

At the time, only four Indian aircraft were on Combat Air Patrol (CAP) in the Kashmir sector — two Mirage-2000s to the north of the Pir Panjal range and two Su-30s to the south.

One set of Pakistani fighter aircraft engaged with the Mirages in the north while another engaged with the Sukhois in the south.

In between, a third set of fighters tried to target the military installations.

“At no point of time did the Pakistani fighters cross into the Indian territory. The chatter picked up clearly showed multiple instructions to not cross the LoC and fire from within their air space,” a source said.

{Does not agree with AM SBP Sinha's statement}

Seeing the approaching fighters, the IAF control room in Punjab ordered more fighters to be scrambled, and a total of seven MiG-21 Bison aircraft took off from the Srinagar and Awantipur air bases, including the one flown by Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman.

Since the MiGs climbed in the shadow of the Pir Panjal range, Pakistan’s airborne early warning and control (AWAC) system failed to detect them. Their sudden appearance left the Pakistani fighters taken aback.

“They dropped bombs in a hurry and tried to get away. This is the moment when Wing Commander Abhinandan crossed about 8 km inside Pakistan in pursuit of a PAF fighter,” a source said.

Why the bombs did not hit the targets
It was pure luck and the sudden appearance of the MiG-21s that worked in India’s favour.

Radio chatter picked up by the Indian security forces gives an insight into what the PAF was planning — it was clear they had intended to target the military installations and also not cross the LoC.

While the air battle was on, the main concern of the PAF was the pilot of an F-16 reporting oxygen failure, sources said.

“Contrary to what Pakistan claims, the bombs had specifically targeted military installations. For example, one bomb hit the trees within a brigade compound and exploded. Had those trees not been there, the brigade headquarters would have been hit,” an Indian Army source said.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 03 Apr 2019 02:01

so won't IAF avenge that? Our military installation was targeted!

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 03 Apr 2019 02:25

Indra sirjee, just scroll up the forum and read the posts in the Balakot thread.

Aditya - its the Print, given their credibility so far in this entire saga, I'd take their claims with a bag of salt or cross-check every claim twice. They are continuing to push the same old agenda.

"It was pure luck and the sudden appearance of the MiG-21s that worked in India’s favour."

Pure luck indeed to have MiG-21s on QRA as we have been doing for decades now.

Aditya G · Post by **Aditya G** » 03 Apr 2019 02:49

Yes, i saw the contradictions but posted in any case

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 03 Apr 2019 02:51

Karan M and Others - For what its worth, take my word that some hits were very close. One is the Bde HQ mentioned above and another was an ammunition depot.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 03 Apr 2019 03:17

India gives Pak F-16 intel to US
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... hAPUJ.html

South Block officials said on condition of anonymity that this evidence – call signs associated with PAF F-16s, and specific details of the AIM-120 Advanced Medium Range Air To Air Missile (AMRAAM) used by the intruding fighting falcons – were shared with the US through institutionalised intelligence channels.

India has not shared radar signatures of the F-16s used in the Nowshera fight as this information would also compromise the security of the IAF.

New Delhi also knows the name of the pilot of the downed F-16 shot down by Varthaman, the officials said. Photographs of the recovered engine cowling of the F-16 downed in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir that were examined by IAF experts shows that it has nothing to do with Varthaman’s MiG-21-Bison, the officials added. While the photograph shows the recovered part without rivets, the MiG-21 engine cowling has rivets at multiple places, they said.

According to the South Block officials, while the Pentagon knows that F-16s were used by Pakistan and not the over-rated Chinese JF-17s, the downing of a fighting falcon by a lowly Fishbed, the NATO name of the MiG-21, is a bitter pill to for it to swallow both militarily and commercially.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 03 Apr 2019 03:48

rohitvats wrote:Karan M and Others - For what its worth, take my word that some hits were very close. One is the Bde HQ mentioned above and another was an ammunition depot.

Rohit, my POV is that in any conflict, even limited one, these sort of things are bound to occur. What I disagree with is the Print repeatedly pushing the agenda, it was "luck that our MiG-21s arrived etc", .. luck has its place and most soldiers would definitely be want to be lucky, but it was IAF SOPs which worked, and all those were thought out. Also the general defeatism and Pak worship their articles have.

Also, suppose these strikes had got through... IMHO, if anyone was lucky that day, it was the PAF in that their strike done for alleviating their izzat in front of PA and awaam, did not invite significant retaliation. Otherwise we were headed for war and those bases would have been Brahmos'ed.

Another factor the Print won't concede as it runs contrary to their editor Gupta's agenda apparently, is the half way house the PAFs audacity was. They had almost complete numerical superiority, but would not engage with and fix the IAF fighters in a full blown dogfight, or take the risk to guide their munitions in. This was like a complete, as low risk as possible, strike from afar, mission. In that sense, no PGMs can help.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 03 Apr 2019 04:06

Now we have the basic issue decided regarding the PAFs braggadacio exposed.. IMHO its also time to analyze what we can do better, beyond what the media says we should do.

IMHO, we need a fast induction system which bypasses the usual DPP this, DPP that or a RM/MOD led process which has MOF sit with MOD at beginning and provide financial clearance asap.

1. We need more AWACS. This is a no-brainer. Low hanging fruit are the 2 Phalcons + 1 Netra available. Add more Netra, at least 3 more.

2. We need dedicated EW support aids on our own side which are anti-AWACS. Again, this sort of stuff is rare, PAF doesnt have it, no reason we can't, to offset the PAFs AEW&C usage. While we have fighter EW for A2A and A2G functions, I am talking of stuff like this:
Krasukha
Or DARE should be asked to heavily scale up their systems and think of a C-295 or Embraer sized platform. The PAF has become very heavily reliant on their AWACS and this can be a low-cost way to shut them down.

3. Investment in newer generation missiles, sensors etc is anyhow an ongoing process, but Astra induction is another low hanging fruit I would process as is ODL integration with AFNET/IACCS.

4. Akash follow on order with BEL needs to be cleared ASAP. Again, this is a very cost effective way to deal with Raptors. Next set of such attacks will undoubtedly be on IAF AFB.

5. Dust off the Trishul if need be. It cleared trials, and is a very low cost solution to take down PGMs. Makes use of existing Flycatchers which can be modernized and repurposed even as IA replaces them with SkyCapture and Atulya.

6. Process the 83x LCA Mk1A, fix HAL/Dassault to speed up Mirage 2000 Upg deliveries, add the 18 MKI, 21 MiG-29s and even go ahead with the 114x MMRCA if you will, but build the airframe numbers up. This is essential.

7. The DRDO EW/Munitions programs need to be fast tracked, a yrly trial and constant scope creep defeats their purpose and they need to be brought into service asap.

8. HAS construction needs to be sped up. 108x HAS across our AFB automatically translates to more assets close in at ORP.

9.MOF's penny pinching on deals like these while we keep rolling out this social justice scheme, that social justice scheme can't be allowed to continue forever. Neta's also need to understand that if you want a "hot peace" you have to spend for it. Bureaucrats, any decision makers who deliberately stall defence modernisation with fake file notations (a bunch of these in the Rafale deal) need to be sent packing.

10.IMHO, the good part of this entire episode has been that we are really good skills wise. As expected its the quantum of assets we hold which need to be ratcheted up even further if this is to be a regular occurrence.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 03 Apr 2019 04:29

Karan M wrote:10. IMHO, the good part of this entire episode has been that we are really good skills wise. As expected its the quantum of assets we hold which need to be ratcheted up even further if this is to be a regular occurrence.

Unfortunately this has been a repeat occurrence in pretty much every conflict we have fought except for 1948 (when we and pakis were fighting with the exact same weapons) and 1971, when we had the time to plan well and did not suffer from inadequacy of equipment (quality or quantity). The performance in those 2 wars speaks for itself. Aside from that let's look at our track record:

1962: Everything is in short supply! We were fighting with Lee-Enfields against Ak-56. We were short of men, ammunition, artillery, and cold-weather gear.

1965: Pakis had 2 armored divisions to our one. The quality of tanks was inferior, except the Centurions. Quality and quantity of artillery was inferior. IAF was still using obsolete types like the Vampire which led to early losses. Our frontline fighter was a type only used by us and Finland! Basically the cheapest you could find. Fortunately it turned out to be good at its job of killing Sabres in the hands of our pilots.

1999: Shortage of artillery. We had to denude other sectors to get enough Bofors guns in Kargil. Lack of BPJ's, kevlar helmets, NVG's (all of which which we are still trying to remedy!). IAF did not have a single aircraft equipped with PGM's which could be used to strike the mountaintops and LGB's had to be hastily integrated with the M2ks.

Point being, we don't seem to have learnt the right lessons from the numerous instances in the past when we found ourselves unprepared for a conflict which is forced on us. I am not ready to believe yet that this time it will be any different.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 03 Apr 2019 04:37

For this we have to hold our netas accountable.

Apart from election time, wherein a cynical, crooked opposition will use it for electoral gains, thereafter I fully plan to constantly message, spam our MOD etc about any delays in acquisition.

Fed up of democracy becoming "give everyone a freebie" mobocracy , for which schemes roll out asap, since bureaucracy there knows political masters wont brook delay. While we continue to delay/prevaricate on everything else citing fourth bylaw of DPP etc and then like fools, rush and buy the same thing at 4x the cost citing operational urgency.

If this is not artificial scarcity, I dont know what is.

If Modi comes back for a second term, I want him, to be much harsher with these so called decision makers, who dont make decisions but delay things.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 03 Apr 2019 04:40

First of all welcome back Rohit Vats!!!!

Folks here is the wiki on H-4
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H-4_SOW

which is based on Denel Raptor II

http://www.deneldynamics.co.za/products ... /raptor-ii

ystem Description

The Raptor II system flies autonomously to the target and is then designated on the intended point of impact by the operator.

The Communications Pod is mounted on the launch aircraft or on a second aircraft, which allows for the control of the weapon over a separation distance of up to 200 km. A set of cockpit display symbology indicates weapon and mission status.

The weapon allows for two methods of operation, depending on the Seeker used:

The weapon will fly autonomously to the target. The operator designates the precise point of impact by means of an advanced auto-tracker.
Fire-and-forget GNSS/INS aided navigation.

Wiki of HS-293

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henschel_Hs_293

I think Denel updated the Henschel 293 design with modern hardware and retained the command guidance.
A tsarkar explained when the Mirages turned tail the communication link was broken and they fell astray.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 03 Apr 2019 04:43

Yeah Singha and I had the same brainwave when we discussed it before. Its the same thing, as with the LGBs, no attack carried through. Fear, risk aversion, cowardice call it what we will. But we cant count on it being the same every time.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 03 Apr 2019 04:51

Also, add GPS jammers to the above list. The Pakistanis will now stock up on Beidou driven weaponry, bombs to stay out of our airspace etc and still hit our infra. We can expect fire and forget glide bombs and cruise vehicles.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 03 Apr 2019 04:54

Karan M wrote:Also, add GPS jammers to the above list. The Pakistanis will now stock up on Beidou driven weaponry, bombs to stay out of our airspace etc and still hit our infra. We can expect fire and forget glide bombs and cruise vehicles.

I don't think it is possible to stop every incoming munition. Some of them will hit whether we like it or not. Eventually the best defense is a good offense. If the M2k's could hit a target in Khyber Pakhtunwa, hitting PA targets close to LoC should be much easier. I think that will be the response if the pakis try anymore misadventures.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 03 Apr 2019 04:59

When Balakot strikes were announced we were careful to mention that only J-e-M terror factory was attacked not a PA target. Pakis responded with attempted attack on IA. So next time there is no reason for us to distinguish between non-uniformed and uniformed terrorists. There was no reason even in Balakot, but even if that was for optics, it does not apply anymore. No reason to take a huge risk in going as far as KPK when there are juicy PA targets right next to the LoC.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 03 Apr 2019 05:36

nachiket wrote:
Karan M wrote:Also, add GPS jammers to the above list. The Pakistanis will now stock up on Beidou driven weaponry, bombs to stay out of our airspace etc and still hit our infra. We can expect fire and forget glide bombs and cruise vehicles.
I don't think it is possible to stop every incoming munition. Some of them will hit whether we like it or not. Eventually the best defense is a good offense. If the M2k's could hit a target in Khyber Pakhtunwa, hitting PA targets close to LoC should be much easier. I think that will be the response if the pakis try anymore misadventures.

That is fine, but Pakistanis live on propaganda and by investing in relatively low cost efforts we can wipe out all their investments in "easy but high PR" weaponry. We kill them in droves anyhow, but they hide the losses.

I will bet the PAF shopping teams are in PRC now and will be keenly looking at Beidou driven glide munitions because the way their brain thinks:

1.Can't get into Indian airspace to do LGB strikes, lost a F-16
2.Can't rely on the Raptors, Abdul told me the Mirages had to jink
3. They will send people over to get location fixes and then try and use that to attack us with mass swarms of GPS munitions.

We can pre-empt this & that itself will be a blow to the Paki pysche.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 03 Apr 2019 05:37

nachiket wrote:When Balakot strikes were announced we were careful to mention that only J-e-M terror factory was attacked not a PA target. Pakis responded with attempted attack on IA. So next time there is no reason for us to distinguish between non-uniformed and uniformed terrorists. There was no reason even in Balakot, but even if that was for optics, it does not apply anymore. No reason to take a huge risk in going as far as KPK when there are juicy PA targets right next to the LoC.

Absolutely. More Dhanush, more 155mm ammo and get the Pinaka 2 lines up and running.