MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

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kancha
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby kancha » 12 Apr 2019 10:37

Shared some thoughts on the entire episode.
Now there has been enough technical analysis by enough knowledgeable folks already, so this one is mostly about sarcastic mocking of the Paki Propagandu and some humour.
Btw, this chain of thoughts got my twitter account locked for half a day!

Blog Link
Twitter Link

It all began on the last Jumma Day on 5th April. After his weekly Jumma bath, the Brown Pants Propagandu-in-Chief started his PropaganduOfTheDay with the national motto of the Republic of India – सत्यमेव जयते.
Oh, only if he knew what was to follow!

Image

So, what exactly had happened, you ask?

Well, a Gori Memsaab had written a piece in a Western publication, no less, that Beggaristan’s American masters had come to take a quick count up of Paki F-16s and declared that all were intact!

So ‘excited’ was the Propagandu-in-Chief, that he took a bit longer than usual in his weekly Jumma shower bath and almost yelled out MARTIALLAW as he ‘finished’! Thankfully, he quickly corrected himself and yelled सत्यमेव जयते instead! (No pun intended, Sachchi!)

BUTT .. he thought as he ‘finished’ ..
Oh, well, I digress. He and his shower ‘thoughts’ are none of our business!

Coming back to the topic, the Gori Mem endorsing the Brown Pants was a BIG deal indeed!

In the midst of all this ‘excitement’ early on a Jumma Din, there was a ‘slight’ oversight by Shri Propagandu-in-Chief. The Gori Mem had based her entire ‘scoop’ on unnamed ‘sources’ from the power circles in the US of A!

Heck, even Baskin Robbins guys could produce better ‘scoops’ than this one. And what’s more, their ‘scoops’ would be quite tasteful to the palate than the Shit that the Gori Mem managed to scoop and fling, to much cheering by Brown Pants, for obvious reasons!

So here was the deal – a Gori Mem citing unknown ‘sources’ Vs a Two Star officer of Indian Air Force OFFICIALLY confirming an F-16 claim. Hmm .. difficult choice, no?

Answer: NO!

As far as the Brown Panted ones go, Gori Chamdi wins. Always & Every Time. Esp, when flinging Shit!

Just to refresh you all, here is what the IAF officially acknowledged in its presser right after Wing Commander Abhinandan shot down the Paki F-16.
Image

Of course, there was the little, ‘uncomfortable’ fact that the Pakis themselves had admitted to losing one of their own aircraft in that short but epic engagement over the lands of Kashyap Mir, better known as Kashmir today.

Here is how it went.

Soon after the engagement, the Pakis were exhilarated.

TWO AIRCRAFT SHOT DOWN!

THREE PILOTS CAPTURED!

YAHOO!

No one thought to confirm whom those aircraft belonged to. Typical of the ‘quick shot’ Propagandu-in-Chief, he let one out .. err .. prematurely .. yet again!

Image

Soon, the inevitable happened.
The Propagandu-in-Chief left for his afternoon potty.
NOW was the time to tell him, the minions decided.
“Err .. Saheb .. there is a breaking news regarding the air battle .. one of the captured pilots is our own”, they shouted from outside his latrine door and ran away before he could pull up his pants!

He grumbled a few ‘jumma eve compliant’ expletives and quickly rushed out, his potty business only half done.

‘Damn those idiot minions’, he grumbled, ‘if only they weren’t so gorgeous ..’

A quick few phone calls later, he had the entire ‘free’ media of Beggaristan outside his office.
There are only TWO Indian pilots, he said, including one in hospital.
Not one of the ‘free’ Paki pressmen asked, लेकिन जनाब, सुबह तो तीन पायलट थे!
:roll:

But then again, in the spirit of सत्यमेव जयते, later in the day, someone updated him again. Janab, wo hospital wala bhi apna hee hai.

DAMMIT, he croaked, his throat parched, YE TO GHANI WALI DE-PANTING HO GAYI AAJ!

But there was a job to be done.
Like the true Brown Panted Soldier that he was, he tightened his belt, applied his makeup, and went online again.

Jee ek hee pilot hai hamare paas!

But then, he wasn’t the Propagandu-in-Chief for nothing!
He decided to counter the uncomfortable truth by simply ignoring it!
No F-16s were used, he croaked next.
Oh, btw, the Indians had recently purchased a used AMRAAM from OLX!
Sachchi!

Things went on and on over the next few days and weeks, but the Propagandu-in-Chief had a genuine doubt in his mind – DID THAT IDIOT PAF CHIEF BETRAY THE BROWN PANTS BY HOLDING BACK THE INFO OF LOSS OF HIS F-16 AND HIS PILOTS FOR SO LONG? (This is something playing on my mind since long. The PAF would have known right away that they've lost an F-16 and its pilots. Why didn't they tell it to the PA for so long remains the question)

But well, saannu ki!
:twisted:
.
.
I wind up this blog post with a hat tip to Sqn Leader MM Alam who claimed to have shot down five Indian jets in 28 seconds in 1965. His claims were taken at face value and he became an overnight hero, one used even today to remind Indians how AWESOME the PAF is!

Yet, one wonders why no one talks about the dozens of Indian aircraft he would have shot down in 1971. Truth of the matter is that he wasn’t allowed to even fly in 1971! Btw, I’ll leave this piece here without any further comment – Thirty Seconds over Sargodha.

Do read it!


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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby tsarkar » 12 Apr 2019 10:51

Karan M wrote:No, the ROE was dont fire first. Once fired upon, everything changes. Abhi entered the fight with his team (wingman) and other Bison flights all being told they were weapons free and warned of AMRAAM launch possibilities.


Karan M wrote:So ROE changed moment AMRAAMS were fired


Karan M wrote:Abhi was cleared to engage, he didnt violate the ROE. He just pressed home his attack *despite* being warned of the risk.


Karan, what's your source for "Abhi was cleared to engage" and "RoE changed moment AMRAAMS were fired" and "all being told they were weapons free"?

AFAIK, IAF did not release any transcripts during the press conference nor were these details shared by IAF.

I also read Sameer Joshi's post but none of what he says is described in Air Vice Marshal RGK Kapoor's press conference.

https://medium.com/@sameerjoshi73/the-s ... 52f1bd7171

Having spotted the lower formation of F-16s and seeing that the Su-30MKIs were effectively being checked by the higher formation of F-16s — the IACCS vectored two MiG-21 Bisons to prevent these 4 F-16s from breaking through towards Srinagar — Awantipore. Abhinandan was the lead in this 2 aircraft MiG-21 pair. The approach of the 2 MiG-21s was missed by the F-16s who were busy scanning for the Su-30MKIs, but a Saab 2000 ERIEYE Airborne Early Warning & Control (AEW&C) operating in depth near Islamabad, spotted the MiG-21s over Naoshera, warning the F-16s. The IAF’s gound controller saw the defensive maneuvering of the F-16s, warning the MiGs in turn. While his No 2, who was lagging behind, turned ‘cold’ or away from the F-16s which were going ‘hot’ or facing the MiGs — -Abhinandan chose to ignore this threat and continued towards the F-16s.

Both the IACCS & The Phalcon AWACS registered the radar signature of one MiG-21 piloted by Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman cross the Line of Control and engage a F-16 with a R-73 missile. His call on R/T of a missile launch was monitored by the AWACS. Abhinandan was 8–10 km away from the F-16, which was turning towards him — aiming for a frontal aspect launch with high closing speed between the missile and the incoming F-16.


This post highlights his lack of operational details. Head On RCS & Heat Signatures are least which is why in the below photo the aircraft are circling to get behind each other rather than approach each other in a straight line.

Image

The LLTR noticed the MiG-21 blip vanishing after nearly a minute post the F-16 kill, matching with the account from Abhinandan’s debrief post his repatriation back to India.


Abhinandan's debrief has not been released or made public. So what is he matching it to?

I briefly checked the profile of Sameer Joshi. As much as I found, he is not a journalist like Angad Singh or Shiv Aroor. What is he basing his story on?

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Singha » 12 Apr 2019 12:21

what is the background of the above picture ? who is saying it was of the fight?
I see two a/c turning. could very well be two of ours or theirs in snake formation turning back from the border.

similar turns have been seen in sialkot akhnoor cellcam videos.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby rohitvats » 12 Apr 2019 12:28

Sameer Joshi being ex-IAF fighter pilot, qualified on Mig-21 and Mirage-2000, means his sources are his buddies in IAF.

Till date, there has been no official statement on the how the actual air battle panned-out. The best we have is the latest press conference and even there, the focus was on proving that F-16 went down.

There have been only 03 sources which have given out details of the actual air battle:

(1) Map put out by AM Chopra on Twitter but without any accompanying commentary. The map shows the flight path of various aircrafts on both sides along with time stamp. A study of the map can tell you how the air battle played itself out. This map can be made by only by someone who saw the whole air-battle in front of a radar-scope. Or has access to first hand report with full details from IACCS node(s).

(2) Video by Nitin Gokhale where Air Marshal SBP Sinha gave details of the air battle. Air Marshal SBP Sinha retired some months back as AOC-in-C of Central Air Command. Details shared by him would've also come from deep within IAF.

(3) Article, map and detailed commentary by Sameer Joshi. Source would again be IAF.

In my opinion, one needs to compile inputs from all these sources to form a balanced picture of what happened on 27th February. Believe you me, when full details come out in some years, a major peg of this story will be turned up-side down.

BTW - in the entire commentary, is it absolutely clear, who fired the FIRST missile? And when? Think about it.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Aditya_V » 12 Apr 2019 12:39

rohitvats wrote:S
In my opinion, one needs to compile inputs from all these sources to form a balanced picture of what happened on 27th February. Believe you me, when full details come out in some years, a major peg of this story will be turned up-side down.

BTW - in the entire commentary, is it absolutely clear, who fired the FIRST missile? And when? Think about it.


Can you inform uninformed folks like what does this mean?

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby rohitvats » 12 Apr 2019 12:46

^^^Read the last part - the question which I've asked.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Aditya_V » 12 Apr 2019 12:57

From what we have heard, F-16 fired Amraam's as Su 30's first

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 12 Apr 2019 13:26

tsarkar wrote:Karan, what's your source for "Abhi was cleared to engage" and "RoE changed moment AMRAAMS were fired" and "all being told they were weapons free"?


I have been in contact with several folk who mentioned the ROE, which I had long suspected to be the issue, far before the media etc picked it up. In fact, both sides had so far respected the ROE vigorously and hence it was entirely possible why we were taken by surprise on that day. This was just how at Kargil, we & the Pakis both used to vacate the hardest posts in winter, and come back to them later. Only for the Pakis to drop this basic principle and occupy our territory.

The only criticism that did come in though was the fact Abhinandan crossed the LOC in his hunt while his wingman broke off. The risks involved were way too high (ambush scenario). This could be explained by the fact that comms jamming had the audible available (from the GCI) only to his wingman not Abhi, though its equally probable Abhi went ahead nonetheless and again, this is something that was his choice to make, because GCI can suggest, they usually don't order unless the mission explicitly calls for the same.

But bottom line, once shots were fired on the Indian side, they were *definitely* weapons free. In fact, if they crossed into the Indian side as well, the IAF guys could have engaged them. These 2 points at least were what everyone agreed upon.

AFAIK, IAF did not release any transcripts during the press conference nor were these details shared by IAF.

I also read Sameer Joshi's post but none of what he says is described in Air Vice Marshal RGK Kapoor's press conference.


Yes they haven't, but the broad facts have been described by several veterans so far. About the only difference between all these accounts, was the location of the JF-17 vs the F-16 strike package, which like Rohit & I were discussing, could easily be accounted for by the differences in a verbal account as versus seeing the radar plots.

In fact, AM Sinhas comments about BVR tactics employed match up Sameers comments as well, and those of AVM Subramaniam as well.

In fact this is what I was alluding to, in several posts back, that the IAF veterans had become the preferred method to counter vested media leaks, and this was indeed a sophisticated strategy, but it had limitations ("how do we know these guys are true, who cares what they say" from the gora DDM etc in particular) and hence the IAF finally went out and released its info.

https://medium.com/@sameerjoshi73/the-slip-between-the-cup-and-the-lip-9052f1bd7171

Having spotted the lower formation of F-16s and seeing that the Su-30MKIs were effectively being checked by the higher formation of F-16s — the IACCS vectored two MiG-21 Bisons to prevent these 4 F-16s from breaking through towards Srinagar — Awantipore. Abhinandan was the lead in this 2 aircraft MiG-21 pair. The approach of the 2 MiG-21s was missed by the F-16s who were busy scanning for the Su-30MKIs, but a Saab 2000 ERIEYE Airborne Early Warning & Control (AEW&C) operating in depth near Islamabad, spotted the MiG-21s over Naoshera, warning the F-16s. The IAF’s gound controller saw the defensive maneuvering of the F-16s, warning the MiGs in turn. While his No 2, who was lagging behind, turned ‘cold’ or away from the F-16s which were going ‘hot’ or facing the MiGs — -Abhinandan chose to ignore this threat and continued towards the F-16s.

Both the IACCS & The Phalcon AWACS registered the radar signature of one MiG-21 piloted by Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman cross the Line of Control and engage a F-16 with a R-73 missile. His call on R/T of a missile launch was monitored by the AWACS. Abhinandan was 8–10 km away from the F-16, which was turning towards him — aiming for a frontal aspect launch with high closing speed between the missile and the incoming F-16.


This post highlights his lack of operational details. Head On RCS & Heat Signatures are least which is why in the below photo the aircraft are circling to get behind each other rather than approach each other in a straight line.

Image


You have misunderstood what he is saying. Both fighters were in a maneuvering fight and turning fight. The image above, if it was of the MiG-21 vs F-16 shows the F-16 also seeking to turn into the MiG-21.

As the F-16 was turning back into the MiG-21, it would ultimately expose its frontal aspect. And what Joshi is saying is that even so, as MiG-21 took the shot then, it was well within the R-73Es operational parameters (it is an all-aspect missile, well capable of picking up the heat from the aircraft friction/drag), and he was well prepared for the missile to hit the F-16 frontally just as the F-16 got him in his sights. The reason he brings this up is explained thereafter. It could account for why the F-16 pilot was injured badly, not just post ejection trauma but overall injuries from the missile itself.

Second, head on RCS can be decent, (second to flank/aft RCS which is the highest) but the most typical operational scenario, between 2 groups of approaching/receding fighters, which is why radar details are invariably mentioned for head on closure and receding targets.

The two most critical RCS profiles for most targets, as the operational usage is in those 2 profiles. As a fighter pilot once noted - either you speed into engage, or you turn and get the heck out of dodge. The same can be seen in most EW suites, the EW jamming is tailored to providing coverage only in the frontal & rear arcs.

In earlier gen fighters, the head on RCS is also high because of a bunch of factors, the exposed fan blades, and the fact the MSA is located in the nose (later gen fighters have a fixed AESA located at an angle and have the bulkheads heavily coated in RAM). The F-16s have HAVE GLASS RCS reduction, but even so, with multiple weapons and pylons loaded up, their head on RCS will not be minor.

The LLTR noticed the MiG-21 blip vanishing after nearly a minute post the F-16 kill, matching with the account from Abhinandan’s debrief post his repatriation back to India.

Abhinandan's debrief has not been released or made public. So what is he matching it to?

I briefly checked the profile of Sameer Joshi. As much as I found, he is not a journalist like Angad Singh or Shiv Aroor. What is he basing his story on?


Sameer Joshi is squadron leader Sameer Joshi, ex Mirage 2000 & MiG-21 pilot & Kargil veteran. He is basing his story, the same as other IAF veterans like AVM Subramaniam, AM Sinha on what he was informed by his IAF sources.

So far the details he has mentioned in his accounts, square up well with all accounts of BVR and WVR combat as detailed by some very credible authors/pilots, and some other points are way beyond the average amateur to come up with or even describe accurately.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 12 Apr 2019 13:48

rohitvats wrote:In my opinion, one needs to compile inputs from all these sources to form a balanced picture of what happened on 27th February.


Agree completely. Its a matrix form of analysis, you have to fill in the differing details & figure out the contradictions, account for them and reject the most implausible ones.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby tsarkar » 12 Apr 2019 17:28

Karan M wrote:But bottom line, once shots were fired on the Indian side, they were *definitely* weapons free.

This is very different from what I know. Unless war is formally declared - and in this case it wasnt - it requires Controller approval.

None of the Indian fighters fired their long range weapons goes contrary to the weapons free logic. Even Abhinandan didnt use his longer ranged R-77.

Also, I know a turning fight when I see one.

Anyways, this incident has too many versions and is too sparse on details.

From an Indian perspective, we could have better prepared for it given the time-demonstrated logic-defying tribal-thinking of the Pakistanis.

The issue is not pilots or radar operator bravery, competency or equipment but a command failure at higher military levels to prepare for all possible contingencies.

We had a very supportive and understanding Government Leadership that the IAF Leadership could have leveraged far more aggressively than it did.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby ninad » 12 Apr 2019 17:43

Hi everyone,

Have been reading claims and counter claims from all sides. Needless to say its a habit of Pakis to lie and there is documented evidence that their forces are bereft of any honor. But there are some voices from our side which are worth paying attention to, at least for rational debate to take place. I am talking about Praveen Sawhney (Editor of Force Magazine and author of Dragon at our doorsteps). He has been extremely critical of Indian side - the whole episode (starting from Balakot and the events of Feb 27). I agree with some of his views (we do have lost the gap we once used to enjoy wrt PAF) but he seems to be more anti BJP government rather than doing honest analysis (he called surgical strikes fake). Can people who have been following defense space for a long time please shed some light on his views?

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Aditya_V » 12 Apr 2019 18:03

Thats is the Biggest Puzzle why no iAF BVR missile was fired that, IAf will not be arming its fighters with soo many R-77 and if R-77 was such a failure, neither Su 30 MKI in soo many numbers, Mig 29 upgrade or Mig 21 Bison upgrade makes any sense( IAF would have simply not gone for it), remember things were happening very fast and it was over in minutes, but somewhere IAF showed too much restraint and did not fire BVR weapons, which helped PAF save face especially with PAF able to hide its F 16 loss and parade Mig 21 bison and Wing Commander in public.
I dont think it civilian airliner or anything but I think IAF thought AAM incl. BVR weapons was escalatory and preciously IAF was not cleared to fire them, by the tine ROE's could be revisited engagement was over.

Pakistan Army is also hiding casualties, I strongly feel its ok let Pakis Hide thier losses, we need to keep hitting them till thier losses become untenable to hide.

Knowing Pakis there will another tacically brilliant plan for which it is better sharpen our swords, revist ROE's and be prepared for PAF tactics.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby manjgu » 12 Apr 2019 18:07

as i said PAF is a one trick pony ( ass). they have shown their hand...

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby manjgu » 12 Apr 2019 18:12

about ROE..in one of his blog posts Kaiser Tufail said they planned similar ambush during kargil. However, they were concerned what if IAF planes fell inside Indian territory... that was probably against the ROE so PAF dropped the idea. However, in this case the H&D issue was too much for PAF to swallow, so they choose to break ROE. I am wondering 'what if IAF plane had crashed inside indian territory'? is this event gamed?

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Lalmohan » 12 Apr 2019 19:58

There is NO puzzle as to why the IAF did not fire BVr missiles - the F16’s waggled their whangers and RAN AWAY, it made no sense to waste missiles on them with very low
probability of success

There is NO puzzle on ROE, it was due to the need for calibrated escalation in a volatile scenario

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Bart S » 12 Apr 2019 20:00

ninad wrote:But there are some voices from our side which are worth paying attention to, at least for rational debate to take place. I am talking about Praveen Sawhney (Editor of Force Magazine and author of Dragon at our doorsteps).


:rotfl:

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 12 Apr 2019 20:10

tsarkar wrote:This is very different from what I know. Unless war is formally declared - and in this case it wasnt - it requires Controller approval.


From what I understood, there is the risk of jamming, R/T failure, hence crew would have been briefed before hand about what they are/aren't permitted to do.

None of the Indian fighters fired their long range weapons goes contrary to the weapons free logic. Even Abhinandan didnt use his longer ranged R-77.


This has been explained before in Joshi's account and as well as Sinha's. The Indian Su-30s simply could not get a good firing solution with their R77s as they too were at ranges > RMax 1, so they chose not to launch. The F-16s launched, and then disengaged when the Indian fighters painted them back. No MRAAM today, can take on receding targets with a snap height differential of the kind shown above. The Meteor may (perhaps) have had a chance of chasing down the F-16s but I doubt it.
As regards Abhinandan and his R77, its quite possible he did not get a Kopyo lock at the range either due to jamming, or the dynamic angles within which the engagement took place. Remember, the Kopyo is no Bars or Zhuk or RDY, but a small volume limited set with limited scan angles (+/- 40 deg).

Also, I know a turning fight when I see one.
Anyways, this incident has too many versions and is too sparse on details.


We'll have to disagree on this point, I think there have been a ton of details released already far more than I would have expected.

From an Indian perspective, we could have better prepared for it given the time-demonstrated logic-defying tribal-thinking of the Pakistanis.
The issue is not pilots or radar operator bravery, competency or equipment but a command failure at higher military levels to prepare for all possible contingencies.
We had a very supportive and understanding Government Leadership that the IAF Leadership could have leveraged far more aggressively than it did.
[/quote]

Problem is even if we managed to hold off this one event, the Pakistanis "tactical brilliance" would have shown up elsewhere. We really have to go up the escalation ladder with these bozos.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 12 Apr 2019 20:11

ninad wrote:Hi everyone,

Have been reading claims and counter claims from all sides. Needless to say its a habit of Pakis to lie and there is documented evidence that their forces are bereft of any honor. But there are some voices from our side which are worth paying attention to, at least for rational debate to take place. I am talking about Praveen Sawhney (Editor of Force Magazine and author of Dragon at our doorsteps). He has been extremely critical of Indian side - the whole episode (starting from Balakot and the events of Feb 27). I agree with some of his views (we do have lost the gap we once used to enjoy wrt PAF) but he seems to be more anti BJP government rather than doing honest analysis (he called surgical strikes fake). Can people who have been following defense space for a long time please shed some light on his views?


Please take his views very skeptically. He lost the plot viz objective defence analysis a long time back.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby habal » 12 Apr 2019 20:17

this kaiser tufail and the other defence 'anal-cyst' Schahide are both jokers operating perpetually in save H&D mode. Nothing of what they say can be taken at face value. A weak, corrupt, and jihadi juggler country like pakistan cannot afford to project any other image online.

None of their twitter or online 'sources' are genuine, unlike Indians who are out to prove their fragility and stupidity and hide nothing as if we are chatting with a bunch of long lost friends. It only happens when Indians deal with foreigners online, with fellow Indians they would be doubly rude and hostile or secretive.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Singha » 12 Apr 2019 20:21

nothing short of a R37 will be able to chase a receding plane out to 100km. and it is semi active.

meteor will probably be another expensive import flop.

we better get on with Astra mk2.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Zynda » 12 Apr 2019 20:48

I believe R-37 has an active seeker. Apparently, R-37M has an active seeker in two different bands (X & Ku). It is intended to be carried by Su-30, Su-35 & MiG-31BM jets. Also work is being carried out to integrate it in to Su-57 as well.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby AdityaM » 12 Apr 2019 22:06

Ramana closed the Balakot thread after posting an enticing message. Wish he had elaborated further.

One newbie Q:

If the circular turning photo of 2 planes is that of Mig & F16, then given the short distance between them, how would they appear on a distant radar. Wouldn’t they end up being almost overlapping on the radar?

The IAF radar pic showed distinct plane pointers on the screen, so either the radar can zoom in somehow or radar is very powerful or I have no clue how all this works. The latter is Ofcourse true.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Picklu » 12 Apr 2019 22:17

tsarkar wrote:From an Indian perspective, we could have better prepared for it given the time-demonstrated logic-defying tribal-thinking of the Pakistanis.

The issue is not pilots or radar operator bravery, competency or equipment but a command failure at higher military levels to prepare for all possible contingencies.

We had a very supportive and understanding Government Leadership that the IAF Leadership could have leveraged far more aggressively than it did.


+108

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby darshhan » 12 Apr 2019 22:20

Singha wrote:nothing short of a R37 will be able to chase a receding plane out to 100km. and it is semi active.

meteor will probably be another expensive import flop.

we better get on with Astra mk2.


These are the scenarios where we require S-400s.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby sudeepj » 12 Apr 2019 22:20

Aditya_V wrote:Falcon being a lawn dart, you can see in many videos the hit aircraft falling down straight and after you can see contrail of the other fighter which is then hit but is falling slower at an angle


This is likely as F16 is an unstable design controlled by fbw. If the fbw is shot, its going to go straight down.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Bart S » 12 Apr 2019 22:24

darshhan wrote:
Singha wrote:nothing short of a R37 will be able to chase a receding plane out to 100km. and it is semi active.

meteor will probably be another expensive import flop.

we better get on with Astra mk2.


These are the scenarios where we require S-400s.


S-400s would probably not have helped once the dogfight started. It could possibly have shot the Paki planes down well before they reached Indian airspace, on the initial attack, but that was anyway prevented by the ROE.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby fanne » 12 Apr 2019 23:52

or a receding one!!

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby anishns » 13 Apr 2019 01:05



Very good discussion IMO

Panel:
Maj Gen (Dr.) Ravi Arora (Retd.) , Chief Editor, Indian Military Review
AVM PK Srivastava (Retd.), Defence Expert
Ajay Banerjee, Defence Correspondent, The Tribune

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 13 Apr 2019 01:19

habal wrote:this kaiser tufail and the other defence 'anal-cyst' Schahide are both jokers operating perpetually in save H&D mode. Nothing of what they say can be taken at face value. A weak, corrupt, and jihadi juggler country like pakistan cannot afford to project any other image online.


Well Tufail is Pakistani and his loyalty will always be there first, and color his analysis. But he is relatively far more rational than his Pakistani compatriots. I think he is one of the last few Pakistanis who still hold onto some vestiges of Indian military behavior in terms of courtesy to the foe, secularism (or at least, his religious views aren't in your face), tendency to think coolly and respond in the same vein. Schahide is just pimple faced teen acting like a schill for the ISPR. A joke basically.

None of their twitter or online 'sources' are genuine, unlike Indians who are out to prove their fragility and stupidity and hide nothing as if we are chatting with a bunch of long lost friends. It only happens when Indians deal with foreigners online, with fellow Indians they would be doubly rude and hostile or secretive.


This stuff is true to a degree. We are obsessed with proving ourselves to foreigners. But then that's because of the relative power differential between our economy and theirs, and the consequent lack of self-confidence that flows from it.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Roop » 13 Apr 2019 01:36

(emphasis mine)
ninad wrote:... there are some voices from our side which are worth paying attention to, at least for rational debate to take place. I am talking about Praveen Sawhney


This is your problem right here ... the fellow you quoted is not worth paying attention to. There are, of course, many other dorks in this category, but since you brought up his name and it obviously has you concerned, I felt I should point this out.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Atmavik » 13 Apr 2019 06:26

anishns wrote:

Very good discussion IMO

Panel:
Maj Gen (Dr.) Ravi Arora (Retd.) , Chief Editor, Indian Military Review
AVM PK Srivastava (Retd.), Defence Expert
Ajay Banerjee, Defence Correspondent, The Tribune


Ajay Banerjee has read the radio intercepts and this nails it. this is a good discussion

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Aditya_V » 13 Apr 2019 11:53

Here is a video at Republicworld, I dont think they got the captions or the IAF aircraft SU-30 instead of Mig 21 Bison riight, can more knowledgable experts state what is actual happenning in the video in the link

https://www.republicworld.com/india-news/general-news/just-watch-this-pakistans-f-16-scarpers-as-indias-su-30-swiftly-chases-out-rawalpindis-attempt-to-intrude-into-indias-airspace

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Aditya_V » 13 Apr 2019 13:26

Any news for 4 Paki JF 17 came 15KM from LOC and left after our Su-30's showed up?

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 13 Apr 2019 13:34

So I was just looking up the relative IAF vs PAF force dispensations over the years and here are my quick thoughts. IAF capability has undergone a huge upgrade in terms of *quality* vs 1999 and even earlier. There is literally no comparison. We now have IACCS, AFNET, automated spares management systems, almost entire ADGES has been upgraded with newer radars and most importantly some 200+ Sukhois, upgraded Jaguars, MiGs etc for precision strike. The rough numbers speak for themselves. At Kargil, we had around 110 confirmed BVR ready platforms, and around 50 LGB capable aircraft, of which only a handful were truly capable of deploying cheaper Paveways. Today, BVR capable platforms are ~480 (Su-30, MiG-21, MiG-29, Mirage 2000, of which 440 are ARH BVR capable) and PGM capable are ~500. We also now have a host of new targeting capabilities, for instance Litening is being assembled in India for a decent coverage across IAF squadrons. In 1999, we had just a handful of LDP equipped Mirages. That's it. Now almost ~500 aircraft across our fleet are LDP capable. We have a huge range of munitions in our inventory starting from Russian optical munitions to US/Israeli LGB types and some exotic capabilities as well.

So now lets now look at the PAF, and this is where the differences start coming up about what FMS and the EDA pipeline from the US really did.
At Kargil, they had zero, BVR capable platforms, while as I said, we had around 110. Today, they have 185 (counting all JF-17s as BVR capable). In terms of precision strike/PGMs, they have around 185 F-16s and JF-17s. Of the 220 Mirage 3/5s its hard to figure out the serviceability and even upgraded capability across the airframes, so lets assume 50% are strike capable with PGMs like the Raptor TV guided bombs. That's around 300 airframes.
Again, the F-16s are their elite strike platforms. They have very comprehensive EW fits & huge inventories of US supplied proven LGBs and PGMs and so do the JF-17s, but the difference is the US made gear is battle tested.
Their strike coverage though is much lesser than that of the IAFs, all said and done. The Litening coverage + upgrades for the bulk of our fleet place us firmly ahead of them in this arena & as the domestic DRDO gear starts coming out of production, we would have a very significant lead as mass adoption of PGMs is certain to happen same as we saw with Akash, domestic sensors etc.

In terms of ADGEs, the PAF also acquired new US made radars and a host of Chinese made radars. Our systems may be superior overall to the Chinese made gear but the point is their system is new as well, and they have a local version of IACCS which even if not as comprehensive is still pretty capable.

In terms of SAMs we are a work in progress. PAF area of responsibility being much smaller is able to provided denser coverage with much lesser eqpt. They got several squadrons of ASPIDE 2000 (an European Akash so to speak), and have Crotale 2000, Anza, RBS-70. Its a decent inventory, with a severe weakness in long range coverage. Stay out of the 30 km ASPIDE coverage and lob away. The PA has supposedly got several LY-80 SAMs with 40km coverage (9 batteries) so its not that much different. Integration with PAF infrastructure is a question mark. IAF has 20 odd remaining SA-3 batteries which are obsolete, 16 Akash batteries in induction, and 6 SpyDer, plus OSA-AKM/Strela/SA-7 in service. Most of these older Russian systems are obsolete and under life extension by BDL but will work in a pinch. On the plus side 10 batteries of S-400 & 18 batteries of MRSAM will be coming in and the plan (yet to be funded) is to digitize the remaining SA-3 batteries. They provide a useful exotic band coverage. There are 7 more Akash squadrons also planned and stuck for want of funding. But still, even though, we have a ways to go, the next 2-3 years will see a sea change in IAF combat capability for SAMs but also remember this is only PAF, not PLAAF.

ESM/EW - very touchy subject. All I will say is both sides have EW capability but IAF approach has been towards individual self protection of platforms in A2A/A2G, and select capabilities for A2G. PAF has this coverage for its F-16s, probably the JF-17s, but limited coverage (or so it appears) for its Mirage 3/5s and nothing for its F-7s. The PAF also operates a dedicated EW squadron akin to the IAFs old Rapiers, with 2x Falcon DA-20s for comjam, ELINT and also likely has other assets deputed (I presume fighters). IAF also has a developing lead here with its DivyaDrishti DLRL system deployed across the border, and the new GBMES entering service. 2x Boeing ELINT platforms are also deployed with a mix of domestic (BEL/DRDO) and likely imported gear.

Most importantly, AEW&C, we have 5 in induction, they have 7 ordered (1 destroyed by Taliban) and apparently 3-4 more on order. Basically, this is a very big deal as it allows them to surge assets only as when required and not maintain round the clock CAPs which would bankrupt them, and also depreciate their assets rapidly.
So, of the 7 AWACS originally ordered, 3 were Chinese ones which apparently were a political, make money decision, and were never deployed over clutter (compare & contrast to how we deployed Netra even in IOC). So the follow on order for 3-4 Erieyes replaces these airframes basically. What do 7 AWACS provide? One in deep maintenance, 6 available, 2 on ground, 2 in transit, 2 on duty in sectors far from their bases. But Pakistani bases are all around 100-200 km away from their patrol places. So you can minimize transit times, and you will have coverage of ~3 sectors. With a 350km radius, they can cover a full third of the Indo-Pak border (~1200 km of ~3200 km overall) and furthermore, add the 3 ZDK-03 and you will have even further coverage, albeit with reduced capability.

UAVs/Sats: Again mix of Searches, some Herons, SATs + RAW operated assets via Bombardiers w/Israeli SAR, SAR pods on Su-30s give us better coverage than what Pakistan has. But its not as overwhelming as say, having dedicated JSTARs type assets.

So, as you can see, while we have had significant growth in terms of technology and capability, the PAF too has had a huge growth.

Parity
# A2A Munitions - AMRAAM vs R77/Astra/Mica means the PAF F-16 fleet has equal coverage and it would be sensible to assume the JF-17 as well
We also need to build up quantity of PGMs so we move completely beyond any iron munitions
#EW - in a limited conflict, PAF can rely only on high value SPJ equipped airframes & surge with them, like the F-16s and JF-17s to back them up.
# Airframe coverage: If we start deducting from our fleet for a potential coverage against PRC, our airframe numbers can dip. Dual tasking like Gagan Shakti allows us to fend off, but for true offensive capabilities, we need numbers.

Areas of IAF superiority

1. Airframe types:
MiG-29 Upg, Mirage 2000 Upg, Su-30 MKIs all have significant advantages in one form or the other or parity vis a vis the PAFs premier F-16 fleet. Things like payload, range, sensor coverage etc in some form or the other. Add the weapons diversity on our fleet & with constant enhancements and the 85x F-16 PAF has aren't enough.
2. SSM capability.
Brahmos Squadrons + retiring Prithvi3 vs whatever the PAF has (does it even?)
3. Weapons diversity & sophistication (esp. A2G) and some silver bullets like Meteor when it comes
4. Sensors diversity & sophistication (including A2A FCR diversity & certain capabilities like Mica-IR which PAF just doesn't have)
5. Training. We have the edge and Balakote & Feb 27th both proved it.

Key areas of concern:

#1 AWACS - the delay in Phalcon acquisition is inexcusable. Have said this before, am repeating it. Current GOI dropped the ball on this as did UPA
# Datalinking - we had the lead with D/L Su-30s. PAF has now matched us with D/L F-16s and it would be wise to assume similar capabilities on JF-17s as well, procured from any Euro vendor. Our Bisons, older MiG-27s, Jaguars lack any & even need newer radios. Again, this is mitigated by training, in presence of heavy noise jamming, even encrypted R/T won't work, but it remains a sore point.
#The declining squadron numbers are the biggest issue. One airframe can't be in two places at the same time. In the coming few years, we will drop 6 MiG-21 Bison and 2 MiG-27 squadrons. Confirmed inductions are 1 Su-30 MKI and 2 Rafale, plus 1 Tejas Mk2. Gap of 4 squadrons and we need to add the 4 Tejas Mk1A asap.
But even this only adds back what we are losing and we remain at 31 squadrons, the problem is we need 42 squadrons minimum per IAF calculations.
Right now, the number of airframes we can deploy against PAF is at an all time historic low, irrespective of how sophisticated they are, and this is what gives PAF the confidence that they can surge assets to match us.
Again, current GOI has not done enough to make up for the disaster that was UPA. We should have had confirmed orders for a pipeline of aircraft in place beyond 36x Rafale.

Remember, we are an offensive AF and will take the fight into Pakistan. This automatically means we need more assets and every edge we can get.

If I had to focus on 4 things:
1. AWACS - 2 Phalcons + 1 Netra asap, add 1 more Phalcon, and 3 Netras more
2. Build up domestic A2A and A2G munitions stocks by getting them into production asap. Either procure more Meteors for a silver bullet force of Mirage/Rafales somehow getting it to work, or work with DRDO/Israel for some possible solutions like Astra Mk2/Air launched Barak-8/Stunner etc.
3. MMRCA/Tejas both need to be procured in number, time for waiting is over
4. Focus on EW of all kinds, mass deployment of domestic systems and even escort jammers for formations if ASPJ programs take time to fruition
5. The MII SDR program needs to be started in earnest.

Focus on combat capability accretion not Avro replacement purchase etc. and VIP comms flights etc.
I said this before and I am saying this now, politics is one thing, war is another. It is serious business and can't just be allocated to some random strike here, strike there. If you want to dissuade, you have to pay for it. I don't see how and why a Ministry of Finance can magically find Rs75,000 crores for a crop scheme but sit on Phalcons and Tejas and Akash orders while playing footsie with MOD over capex and revenue budgets. This sort of behavior is stupid. All those freebies will count for nothing if there is a war and its a limited one where PAF lands a few hard blows because they surged assets into a limited geographical zone and you couldn't go all out to attack their bases, logistics etc. I think all politicians seriously need to start thinking about these aspects.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby SidSoma » 13 Apr 2019 14:06

Noob question.

From
http://www.f-16.net/f-16_versions_article2.html

Advanced IFF
The Hazeltine APX-113 Advanced Identification Friend-or-Foe system (AIFF) with increased range performance (100 Nm) will operate via four (rather striking) antennas mounted on the upper forward fuselage in front of the canopy. These "bird slicers", more formally known as Upper Interogator Fuselage Mounted Antenna (FMA) Array, will be the most noticeable exterior change of the Mid Life Update.

The benefits of this AIFF system will be the support for BVR weapons delivery in excess of Radar/Missile limits and the enhanced situational awareness which reduces the chance of a fratricide.

What does the bold part even mean.??

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 13 Apr 2019 14:16

You can ping assets even beyond the range of your radar, and older gen transponders set to auto-respond would, and tell your set that there were airborne targets around, and hostile ones.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 13 Apr 2019 15:15

Also, there has been much discussion around declining IAF numbers - what of the PAFs conundrum
Economic pressure on Pak via various means is also a good way to throttle the PAF. There are 319 airframes for PAF to replace. F-7s and Mirage 3/5s all of which are obsolete or getting hard to maintain.

Hold that thought. Even with "cheap JF-17s", we are speaking of a budget of $12 Bn at the minimum. That's around their entire Forex reserve, just a quick compare to note how really weak they are. The more pressure we put, better for us, even as we build our numbers.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Paul » 13 Apr 2019 15:46

I wouldn't go just by the Budget numbers. They have $Billions in the economy thru the Fauji foundation etc. That should get them another 10-15$B conservatively

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 13 Apr 2019 16:00

Yes, but remember the same holds true for the Pakistan Army or Pakistan Navy. Can they finance all 3?

Point I am making is the PAFs braggadacio currently is entirely because of FMS, EDA and CSF + all the other billions swindled from or donated by the US. They routed a large part to revamp, upgrade, replenish their F-16 fleet and also, used the rest of the money to pay off the Chinese to buy new gear. That tree of money is gone now.

How long can they keep the game going, when half of the PAF still needs to be replaced, PA is also full of obsolete tanks and PN is literally a 2 boats and 3 submarine kinda navy.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Prasad » 13 Apr 2019 16:21

Part of your calculation is based on the assumption that they can put all their F-16s in the air. Massed missile strikes on day 0 and thereafter, even before IAF gets into the act with fighter delivered munitions can render them handicapped no?


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