MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

[Lalmohan]

Plausible theory sire

Rohitbabu zindabad!

[UlanBatori]

Not this I suppose
https://mobile.twitter.com/khalid_pk/st ... 3318598659

Close, but again, there are no contrails leading up to the more-or-less-static big puff of white smoke. The puff stays there. The smaller object is coming down very fast, way too fast to be a parachute. The video seems to go far enough down (maybe that is an illusion) that it should have opened by then.

I think that video is edited: How did Khalid know to point the camera up at the white puff?
But the locale (concrete walled, terraced 1-storey building, power lines) seems identical to that in another video that showed 2 objects. Wonder why/how.
This video may have nothing to do with the aerial combat at all, given the fancy title and claims.

[Rishi]

Pakpasand journo Alan Warnes on twitter said he interviewed Pak CAS who officially puts in a claim of an MKI hit

[RajD]

UBji can you find something in here?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3iKRkUaMFU
or here?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28zkCei4kbI
Hope you find an appropriate portion of the clip or a still from this analysis done by Dr. Shiv. I hope it's halaal to post his material here.
Regards.

[arvin]

UB sir, was going thru the video of mig21 landing site with the nose cone intact after the combat. If your theory of F-16 debris ingestion and subsequent engine shut down is correct, the plane must have glided with all control surfaces intact before hitting ground. The impact and the resulting fire will deform the plane but parts will still be identifiable. In the debris video was looking at fuselage section behind the pilot. Was able to locate wing, fan blade, rear landing gear, either compressor or turbine blade not sure, some long cylinder type structure (hydraulic or pneumatic supply??) etc . But section beyond that is missing i.e tail and elevators. There is a seperate video showing the elevator in front of a house.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3W2zoFSHlys

Looks like the plane was indeed hit by amraam in the tail. The explosion might have knocked off the tail, blew it up. Hence no trace of it. Elevators got severed, landed somewhere else. Left with no control Abhi ejected, and the mig21 glided and and had a hard landing. The residual feul burned up on impact.

[Rishi]

Delta wings without stabilizers don't glide....

[UlanBatori]

UBji can you find something in here?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3iKRkUaMFU
or here?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28zkCei4kbI
Hope you find an appropriate portion of the clip or a still from this analysis done by Dr. Shiv. I hope it's halaal to post his material here.
Regards.

Sorry. In making these it is good to consider some basics:
A. It was not a cloudy day per all the other videos, in that place. (Duh!) End of credibility.
A check of weather conditions might eliminate this or all the other videos.

[UlanBatori]

Delta wings without stabilizers don't glide....

Correct. They become sharp triangular plates that dig into the ground, and slam the nose into a hundred fragments. If u take the tail out, an aircraft (except maybe LCA) is extremely nose-heavy and noze-dives. C.G. is located well forward. Static Stability Ch.1, Sec. 1. of Madarssa Havaii Jehadi Kitab.

[rohitvats]

Karan - I agree with some points but disagree on the overall narrative.

The aerial battle needs to be analyzed by looking at the time-line and how it evolved. We're looking at it in a linear fashion now. While it was a mix of multiple parallel stories. This is what made the whole operation so complex - and something which IAF handled very well. And it was all over in under 30 minutes. The map by AM Chopra has time-stamps for various sub-packages on either side of the battle.

The radar screen-shots shared by IAF also reveal interesting information. For example, look at the spatial distance between PAF fighters in bunch from which Wing Co Abhi shot down F-16D.

We've not a proper analysis of available material and subject it to scrutiny.

Give me some time, I'll post a time-line based assessment.

[A_Gupta]

Yet another.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbec7Z-NhPY

[UlanBatori]

WTH was that? A puff of cloud that just stayed right there?
I am curious about the guys who reported "Two Dhamkas".

[Karan M]

Rohit,

I checked it out and I think it matches what I noted earlier.


See the Erieye has all three groups commence their attack simultaneously to overwhelm the IAF CAP, I.e. at 9:45 am and the strike F16s race in as the Air superiority F16s broke off from their holding pattern over Mangla. These guys launch on the Su30s as they arrive at 9:55, the Su30s either cranked, which would not show up on a plot of this size differential or turned away and are at distance from the threat by 10:05 but also nearer the Strike F16s, allowing the possibility the Strike F16s could have continued on their path to attack them if they had not been bounced by the Bisons at 10:00 am. Meanwhile as the Air Superiority F16s and Su30s were in their brawl, the combined Mirage, JF17 formations also come close to the LOC at 9:55, likely when they launched their PGMs but at the same time stamp, you have the 2x Mirage 2000s as well. Now given the Su30 movement, it is entirely possible the F16s launched on the Su30s to protect the combined JF17 and Mirage 3/5 package as theSu30s and PAF formations are literally on the way to face each other at 9:55. The AMRAAM launch would have likely occured later as the Su30s break towards the top, later either to avoid the AMRAAMs or to head towards the second package of F16s. So given these trajectories the 4x Su30s were likely vectored towards this large formation of 12x JF-17s and Mirages backing up our Mirage 2000s which too moved to intercept. The Su30s then end up heading towards the Strike F16s by 10:05 provided the Strike F16s didnt hightail it back when they were bounced by the 2x MiG21s at 10:00 am.
All in all, there are multiple possibilities available including the one that the PAFs followed classic air power doctrine and sought to deter the IAF from moving into weapons range on the large JF17 and Mirage formation or move towards the F16 package. In which case the GCI vectored the Su30s towards the 12 aircraft seeing the 2x Mirage 2000s were too few in number. And also moved the Bisons towards the F16 strike package.

[Karan M]

Now, the IAF radar picture supports Sameer Joshis contention the JF17s were operating towards the top.



We dont know the position of the Su30s. Were they in between the F26s and JF17s. Or were they lower in the picture. Depending on their position, the Su30s could have moved into intercept the F16s and not necessarily the JF17/Mirages, or were as mentioned earlier going for the largest package of JF17/Mirages. Either ways, the logic of Air Superiority F16s launching on them to protect the rest of the strike fleet remains valid.

This symbology is far too obscure for me yet to draw meaningful conclusions

[UlanBatori]

Karanji, I haven't tried to figure out all the lines and circles, but why does it make sense that the MiG was shot down well west of the F-16? I would have expected that the MiG would turn around as soon as he confirmed the kill, at which point he was well behind (east of) the F-16?

[ldev]

Having sent in 12 Mirage 2000s the night before to Balakot it was inevitable the PAF would respond and knowing the Paki way, they would respond with 24 aircraft which is exactly what they did.

One thing is clear, 4 x F16s were at 40,000 where their AMRAAMs would be at their maximum effective range of ~100kms. At what altitude were the IAF fighters? That is not clear but conjecture seems to be that they were nowhere near 40,000 feet and hence unable to get firing solutions on their BVR R-77s. Why was the IAF not prepared for this contingency? Also 4x F16s climbing all the way to 40,000 feet should have been tracked on ground based as well as the AWACs radars. Also, how was the PAF able to assemble 24 aircraft within 40-50 kms of the LOC without the IAF being able to put up a larger counter force?

It looks like it was individual initiatives/heroics of Wing Co Abhinandan and the lady GCI that saved the day. But these heroics, highlight failures at a more senior level to properly anticipate and prepare for the inevitable PAF response.

[Karan M]

LDev, both IAF and PAF routinely play a game of chicken. Sending formations to the LOC, breaking off etc. To respond to each one as if it's the real deal is financial ruin. So we keep CAPS up and also fighters on QRA. We do much the same to Pakistan routinely. Yes, we are quite naughty.

Next, the F16s may have been at height, to launch their MRAAMs but A2A weapons range apart, we need to also consider what is the optimal cruising height used by the IAF for regular CAPs. See the responses below. High 20s to mid 30s are the range indicated for a variety of reasons.
https://www.quora.com/What-is-a-typical ... -distances

Point is if the IAF fighters were asked to bounce the lower flying JF17s and Mirages, they may have chosen that height only to come under missile attack from even higher flying F16s which is a tactical risk that can develop quite rapidly.

Note the F16s may have been flying lower but gained height and speed for a missile launch, which may have been the exact trigger for the GCI lady officer to anticipate that they were planning a missile attack and hence she alerted the Su30s even before they could be attacked. They tipped their hand our fighters were alerted.

In short our IACCS and radar coverage, GCI worked quite well.

[ldev]

I would agree that minimum CAPs be SOP during peacetime or what passes for peacetime on the LOC/IB for all the reasons you have stated. But the day after Balakot, the PAF was shamed and rearing to get back at India. Retaliation was inevitable and imminent. As somebody said earlier, India had stirred up a hornet's nest. Yes, the IAF was able to blunt the PAF attack. The question is, could it have been better, could the loss of the Mig 21 have been avoided?

What does India need in terms of AWACs coverage to ensure 24x7 monitoring of Pakistan?

[Karan M]

You cannot avoid the loss of any fighter in war. Especially when both sides are fielding near peer equipment and in a limited conflict scenario, PAF can surge fighters flown by their best into a limited geographical zone. All out war would be different.

About not anticipating a mass attack, it's likely the IAF didnt anticipate that the Pakistani AF would mount an immediate yet half baked response, whereas we prefer to go for the calibrated, well planned strike. This is a misreading of the Pakistani mindset, and to be honest many of our armed forces brass often fall into this trap. They discount the need of the Pakistanis to show they are an invincible force.

But even if we had out ambushed their ambush, somehow, question is whether GOI was prepared for an escalation as versus responding to the strike, which we could have but didnt deliberately.

AWACS coverage, at least 9 Phalcons, or 12 AWACS total since we base our AWACS further indeed.

[yensoy]

I think I am beginning to understand the radar pictures a little bit more:

1. It's clear that the radar screen shots (before and after) have been edited. The circles and notations have been added, and stuff has been redacted - see the smudgy boxes in various parts of the photo.
2. The green Sigma is our Mig21; green boxes within the blue circle probably depict the drop tank as it was detached and made its way into the ground.
3. So in the "before" image, Wingco had already dropped the tanks and was in hot pursuit. He might have already fired by then, not clear.
4. V and inverted U show locations of the target. Boxes are historic locations. This actually becomes clear when the images are superimposed (I have done so, how do I share my image here?).
5. Number of boxes depends on confidence of track. Probably 2s or 4s between boxes.
6. Solid green lines show targeting vectors, dashed long green line leads to a redacted box, probably details of the aircraft/armaments/fuel situation...
7. Short green/red/mustard line is probably the predicted heading of the aircraft.
8. Mustard track at bottom is likely an aircraft, but similar boxes at right of image is probably the amraam - no targeting line, nor symbol assigned to it. There were probably more amraams flying around, but not tracked. From the flight direction, it would look like the yellow box amraam was fired by the downed aircraft, and because it was an amraam the aircraft was an F-16; but it's possible it was fired by one of the other F-16s.
9. Wingco was well on his way back after the F-16 went down.

I don't know what the white triangles and numbers mean. Can't be elevations, nor time coordinates though they look suspiciously like either. Also can't fully explain why the downed aircraft is shown in yellow - maybe radar isn't sure of aircraft type, or maybe just for visibility.

IAF evidence is good, but handling is botched since it has also been touched up for redaction & illustration. I have no doubt that the actual data points we see here represent the truth and show that the downed a/c is indeed a paki F16. Looks like we could use some updated graphics in our radar center though!!

[UlanBatori]

But why did the MiG go so much further west after shooting down the F-16? Something is not right.

[Singha]

the F16 has the advantage in A2G loadout, of being able to carry 2 amraams on the wingtip rather than the aim9M/X that was traditional.
the Rafale has borrowed the idea to carry Mica on wingtips.

onlee thing is speed and height will be A2G oriented so these are self defence weapons not A2A profile of supersonic and 40,000 feet.

with 6 micas and 3 supersonic drop tanks, the rafale will be formidable yoddha when it enters the field. its RCS is much lower than su30 and its integrated defence and offensive EW aids much more comprehensive. its also a very capable dogfighter having got WVR 1:1 kill in 2009 even on a raptor in sustained hard turn fighting....the raptor could not use its huge vertical TW to defeat the rafale. this was in UAE where EF typhoon also took part.



even the upgraded M2000 will be slippery customer and the paks will be wary of it.

to fully make sure of the Su30 we need the astra mk1 and a ERAM to use its height and speed and loiter time properly. but its opex will always be higher than a Tejas sized bird......so we really need 100 Tejas for this role , but will have to manage with 1 sqdn Tejas + upg Mig29, some Mig21bisons and some m2k for a while.

all you hear is a few short callouts and the pilots laboured breathing in the brutal turns.

[yensoy]

But why did the MiG go so much further west after shooting down the F-16? Something is not right.

Actually it didn't. It turned right back.

[Rishi]

Abhi was pretty equidistant from all 3 F16s?

[UlanBatori]

^ Yensoy, pls see Karan's annotated map: the red start (F16 down) vs blue star (Mig down)

Rohit,

MiG-down is west of F-16 downing point. 7km west of LOC.

[Rishi]

^ Yensoy, pls see Karan's annotated map: the red start (F16 down) vs blue star (Mig down)

Rohit,

MiG-down is west of F-16 downing point. 7km west of LOC.

Its different from IAF map which shows opposite

[yensoy]

^ Yensoy, pls see Karan's annotated map: the red start (F16 down) vs blue star (Mig down)

Rohit,

MiG-down is west of F-16 downing point. 7km west of LOC.

With all due respect dear mongol, the IAF provided shots override any maps drawn by our enthusiast community. From the overlay map I posted which is from the before and after radar shots, the Mig-21 was headed back. If the premise that the green squares show the drop tanks is true, then it's clear that he dropped the tanks (probably well ahead of the squares), sped up, took the shot, then turned to the right.

[UlanBatori]

Ah! So the fancy annotated one is *NOT* ophishial Eye Aye Eff! Big relief. Because it says MiG21 "shot down" (on the way to reach India by going west like Columbus) and only idiots are saying that so far.

[yensoy]

Ah! So the fancy annotated one is *NOT* ophishial Eye Aye Eff! Big relief. Because it says MiG21 "shot down" and only idiots are saying that so far.

Official IAF statement never said IAF Mig was shot down. AM Kapoor said it went down, not that it was shot down. Your old theory of ingesting some birds - feathered or Chinese quadcopter - actually hasn't been debunked, yet.

Abhi was pretty equidistant from all 3 F16s?

Sort of equidistant to 2, but one was closer and probably better lined up with his direction.

[Rishi]

[mmasand]

Mods please delete if already posted, but here's the narrative of an USAF airman from Redflag 2008 highlighting the Bison's capability to evade the F-15/16 then.
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/video-us-red-flag-pilot-candidly-assesses-su-30mkis-limits-rafales-dirty-tricks-318506/

[UlanBatori]

I think this whole thing is a conspiracy by DimRan& RawHeel to give PM RaGa the ammo to cancel the Rafale Deal as was done to Bofors, so that IAF has to keep flying MiG-21s. May resurrect the Canberras and Hunters too.

[ramana]

UB, One thing I don't understand is how is Abhinandan with minor scratches after the AMRAAM hit the MiG-21 with a 40 lbs warhead?
Is the MiG-21 structure so robust that it absorbed all shock from the explosion?
Could the missile hit the MiG-21 after it flamed out and Abhi ejected?

[UlanBatori]

MiG-21 stalled. AAM-Abdul was heading back to Pindi after scaring Yindoos and after Great Satanic treachery turned the guidance 180 degrees. Then it saw sdre MiG-21 heading back after being scared away by the brave pilots who had jumped out of their F-16 to fight him hand-to-hand.

The AAM-Abdul being so accurate, hit the Mig right on the nose and stopped it in mid-air, causing it to stall (weak rice-eating engine cannot compete against TFTA mijjile engine!). So it fell down. THIS is why the sdre pilot suffered a spinal compression: he was slammed back in his seat by the nose-on impact. If you look really carefully at the pics of the flattened MiG intake u will see that the very nose-tip looks blunt. That is where the AAM-Abdul hit it. Dead center. Deflated the nose, like Hasina AtimBum accidentally sitting on a pin.

[Rishi]

UB, One thing I don't understand is how is Abhinandan with minor scratches after the AMRAAM hit the MiG-21 with a 40 lbs warhead?
Is the MiG-21 structure so robust that it absorbed all shock from the explosion?
Could the missile hit the MiG-21 after it flamed out and Abhi ejected?

I asked this of Tom Cooper in his forum. He said that large majority of pilots unfortunate enough to have their aircraft get hit by an AIM120 hit survived and ejected (mainly as AIM120 is prpxomity fused... Also explains the shearing off off

[sudeepj]

UB, One thing I don't understand is how is Abhinandan with minor scratches after the AMRAAM hit the MiG-21 with a 40 lbs warhead?
Is the MiG-21 structure so robust that it absorbed all shock from the explosion?
Could the missile hit the MiG-21 after it flamed out and Abhi ejected?

AMRAAM has a preformed fragmentation warhead vs the r73 that has an exploding rod warhead.. If the Mig was hit by an AMRAAM, you should expect to see it peppered with the shrapnel. The R73 warhead will simply slice through the fuselage and leave huge gashes that will result in an immediate loss of control and disintegration of the plane.

[Lalmohan]

If the Mig was hit by an AMRAAM, you should expect to see it peppered with the shrapnel

there was a picture of the tail fin in exactly that condition...

on the other hand, the picture the IAF says is of F16 debris was a smallish piece of fuselage

[UlanBatori]

I asked this of Tom Cooper in his forum. He said that large majority of pilots unfortunate enough to have their aircraft get hit by an AIM120 hit survived and ejected (mainly as AIM120 is prpxomity fused... Also explains the shearing off off

Rishiji, per WikiDevata, "The AMRAAM has been used in several engagements and is credited with ten air-to-air kills.[11]"But then the Madarssa mathematicians say:

(19 missiles for 12 kills, including the Syrian Su-22 downed by a US Navy F/A-18E).[15] The targets included six MiG-29s, a MiG-25, a MiG-23, two Su-22s, a Galeb and a US Army Blackhawk that was targeted by mistake.[16][17]

So we can probably check that "Vast Majority" claim relatively easily, even I can count to ten. OK, I suspect that Blackhawk crews did **NOT** eject. Scratch TWO out of TEN from "vast majority". Leaves 8.

Operational history

December 27, 1992, when a USAF F-16D shot down an Iraqi MiG-25 [32]
January 1993 Iraqi MiG-23 was shot down by a USAF F-16C.
1994, when a Republika Srpska Air Force J-21 Jastreb aircraft was shot down by a USAF F-16C
At that point, three launches in combat had resulted in three kills, resulting in the AMRAAM's being informally named "slammer"
In 1998 and 1999 F-15 fighters at Iraqi aircraft violating the No-Fly-Zone, but this time they failed to hit their targets.
spring of 1999, AMRAAMs sOperation Allied Force, the Kosovo bombing campaign. Six Serbian MiG-29 were shot down by NATO (four USAF F-15Cs, one USAF F-16C, and one Dutch F-16A MLU), all of them using AIM-120 missiles (the supposed kill by the F-16C may have actually been friendly fire, an SA-7 MANPADS fired by Serbian infantry).[11]
On 18 June 2017, a US F/A-18E Super Hornet engaged and shot down a Sukhoi Su-22 of the Syrian Air Force over northern Syria,[17] using an AIM-120. The Su-22 had previously avoided an AIM-9X Sidewinder by using flares.[33][34][35]
As of 2017, the AIM-120 AMRAAM has shot down ten aircraft (six MiG-29s, one MiG-25, one MiG-23, one Su-22, one Soko J-21 Jastreb, and [b]two UH-60 Black Hawks).[11][/b] The latter was a friendly fire incident in 1994 when F-15 fighters patrolling Iraq's Northern No-Fly Zone inadvertently shot down a pair of U.S. Army Black Hawk helicopters.[36]
In August 7, 2018, a Spanish Air Force Eurofighter Typhoon accidentally launched a missile in Estonia.[37] There were no human casualties, but a ten-day search operation for missile remains was unsuccessful.[37][38]

Gee! BRFees are into dhoti-shivering AGAIN?

If the MiG had been hit by a US-made mijjile, IAF would have said so. Why not?

No H&D loss in that.
The present lungi-shivering is about "engine failure due to poor maintenance", "engine stalled due to high angle of attack" (since Indian pilots have no clue how to fly) "wings fell off due to age", etc etc. Buggers have no imagination at all, otherwise they would have hit on the MOST LIKELY cause, long ago : 1960s-vintage fuel gauge was not working because it was maintined by HAL, and only 1/10 the usual fuel load was on board because corrupt Indians had stolen the rest. So he just ran out of gas. Also, compass did not work, so he thought he was pursuing an F-16 that was headed to nuke Dilli.
****JUST KIDDING!!!! ** Do not get VIPs in a knot pls.

I DO know one Su-27 pilot whose engines quit during gunnery exercise and he had to eject. Was in hospital for a long time, arm permanently deformed. But MiGs just seem to fall all by themselves per the dork media.

[A_Gupta]

Gee! BRFees are into dhoti-shivering AGAIN?

Most popular hobby after cricket-match-watching.

[UlanBatori]

Rishi:
Scorecard:

Serbia and Montenegro (FR Yugoslavia) Roundel 24 March 1999 – During Allied Force, Dutch F-16AM J-063 flown by Major Peter Tankink shot down one Yugoslavian MiG-29, flown by Lt. Colonel Milutinovic, with an AMRAAM missile. The pilot of the stricken jet ejected safely.[35][36] This marked the first air-to-air kill made by a Dutch fighter since WW2.[37]

Score: Eject 1.

26 March 1999 – two Yugoslavian MiG-29 were shot down by two USAF F-15C with AMRAAM missiles.[38]
Two U.S. F-15s shot down two Yugoslav MiG-29s that violated Bosnian air space Friday evening, said a NATO official. Local and NATO authorities are searching for the pilots, one of whom parachuted out of his plane, according to eyewitnesses. The wreckage of one has been found. A third aircraft escaped and returned to Yugloslav airspace, said sources.

Cumul. Score: Eject 2, Dead 1 (not known if ejected pilot also died)

4 May 1999 – A lone Yugoslav MiG-29 flown by Lt. Col. Milenko Pavlović attempted to intercept a large NATO formation that was returning to base having just bombed Valjevo (the pilot's home town). It was engaged by a pair of USAF F-16CJs from the 78th Fighter Squadron[41] and shot down with AIM-120,[42] killing the pilot with the falling wreckage also being hit by a Strela 2M fired by the Yugoslav army in error.

Cumul. Score: Eject 2, Dead 2 (1 of the ejectees may be dead)

27 December 1992 – USAF F-16 vs. IRAF MiG-25 – A MiG-25 crossed the no-fly zone and an F-16D shot it down with an AIM-120 AMRAAM missile. It is the first kill with an AIM-120, and also the first USAF F-16 kill. (Not known if pilot escaped: doubtful).

Actually there is no doubt:

On Oct. 28, 1998, Col. Paul “PK” White interviewed North for an article he authored, “Nordos’ MiG Kill,” where North described the moment of missile impact: “I saw three separate detonations, the nose and left wing broke instantly, and the tail section continued into the main body of the jet, and finally one huge fireball.”

Cumul. Score: Eject 2, Dead 3 (1 of the ejectees may be dead)

So 5 of the 8 non-helicopter shootdowns are accounted for, and 3 of those killed the pilot, maybe 4 of the 5
Conclusion: Your Re - Lie - Able Source "Tom Cooper" (appears to be) a liar. "VAST MAJORITY of AIM-120-hit pilots manage to eject" is a damned lie. Maybe the guy is just an ignorant cretin, maybe worse. Perhaps this should be a lesson: Don't blindly swallow the crap put out by ppl with names like "Tom Cooper". Or "David Headley".
Q.E.D.

But the AAm-Ram's real strength is in killing all aboard helicopters, "vast majority" being self-goals.
I think that is also what killed the Indian helicopter. AAM-Ram is "fire and forget" The Pakis fired and forgot. The Su-30s etc maneuvered away. The helicopter, flying low and slow, never knew what hit them.

[UlanBatori]

Now for the next one: