MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

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UlanBatori
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby UlanBatori » 19 Apr 2019 07:45

Lalmohan wrote:
sudeepj wrote: If the Mig was hit by an AMRAAM, you should expect to see it peppered with the shrapnel

there was a picture of the tail fin in exactly that condition...
on the other hand, the picture the IAF says is of F16 debris was a smallish piece of fuselage


Wasn't the "tail fin" from the crashed helicopter? THAT may have been hit by an AAM-Abdul all right. Can you post the fin pic pls?

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 19 Apr 2019 08:00

That map wasn't from the enthusiast community etc. It was from the Twitter feed of AM Anil Chopra who was the first to post on the topic.

The IAF data matches Sq Ldr Joshis fighter placement though.

yensoy wrote:
UlanBatori wrote:^ Yensoy, pls see Karan's annotated map: the red start (F16 down) vs blue star (Mig down)
MiG-down is west of F-16 downing point. 7km west of LOC.


With all due respect dear mongol, the IAF provided shots override any maps drawn by our enthusiast community. From the overlay map I posted which is from the before and after radar shots, the Mig-21 was headed back. If the premise that the green squares show the drop tanks is true, then it's clear that he dropped the tanks (probably well ahead of the squares), sped up, took the shot, then turned to the right.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby yensoy » 19 Apr 2019 09:00

Karan M wrote:That map wasn't from the enthusiast community etc. It was from the Twitter feed of AM Anil Chopra who was the first to post on the topic.
The IAF data matches Sq Ldr Joshis fighter placement though.


AM Chopra's map doesn't tally with the radar images. Here is the radar image(s) overlaid on AM Chopra's map. I used multiple features to register the images - it's not a professional job but something close to reality. The IAF radar mapped area is the small bright rectangle in the picture. F-16 crash site as per IAF radar is quite a ways off from F-16 crash site claimed by AM Chopra (and same for Mig-21 crash site). IAF radar and IAF/IA provided sighting maps tally very well as they should, since they reflect reality.

Image

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 19 Apr 2019 09:20

That is fine. I just wanted the attribution of the map to be clear.

I merely posted the AM's map to figure out Rohit's note about looking at time stamps.

BTW good job on trying to figure out the radar images etc. I just saw the amount of blurred areas/redacted stuff and gave it up as a project for some future time.

yensoy wrote:
Karan M wrote:That map wasn't from the enthusiast community etc. It was from the Twitter feed of AM Anil Chopra who was the first to post on the topic.
The IAF data matches Sq Ldr Joshis fighter placement though.


AM Chopra's map doesn't tally with the radar images. Here is the radar image(s) overlaid on AM Chopra's map. I used multiple features to register the images - it's not a professional job but something close to reality. The IAF radar mapped area is the small bright rectangle in the picture. F-16 crash site as per IAF radar is quite a ways off from F-16 crash site claimed by AM Chopra (and same for Mig-21 crash site). IAF radar and IAF/IA provided sighting maps tally very well as they should, since they reflect reality.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby rohitvats » 19 Apr 2019 13:12

The crash site in AM Chopra's map is incorrect. This is because Nowshera has been marked wrong on the map. It is south of the location shown on the map.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Cain Marko » 19 Apr 2019 13:43

rohitvats wrote:The crash site in AM Chopra's map is incorrect. This is because Nowshera has been marked wrong on the map. It is south of the location shown on the map.

Hey Rohit, good to see you back! Missed your informative and straightforward posts.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby UlanBatori » 19 Apr 2019 17:27

All this makes UBCN look far better in accuracy. Ultra-detailed radar maps, and they get the towns as right as Columbus had his continents. Recalls our exemplary service in "explaining" the mystery of MH370.

This is why I take a less-than-adoring view of these Awesome Technical Detail things, esp. on this highly-adored MIL Forum. They get the fundamentals wrong - and how! It's like Norm Augustine's Laws:
In the first year of a major program the Pentagon's project may be $4,387,686,213.23. A year later it becomes $6,598,686,213.23
The 23 cents remain unchanged.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 19 Apr 2019 19:04, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Vivek K » 19 Apr 2019 18:22

The messaging is totally wrong - our strike package delivered a jhaapad to the Pukis deep inside their territory. They couldn’t even scratch the paint of our aircraft. When they tried the same to defend their “so called non-state attackers”, they were detected and attacked and one of the attackers was shot down.

So the goal was setting up expectations of a response for attacks in India and to inflict pain on the Pukis as well. On each of these goals, India was successful. So why bother? Let the Pukis live in their fools paradise! Their world is about to crash and burn anyway because of no cash.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby UlanBatori » 19 Apr 2019 19:00

Not 2 mention Balochistan, Balwaristan and Pakhtoonistan Mujaheddin arriving in LaHore and Pindi with porta-lamp-posts.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby gaurav.p » 19 Apr 2019 21:44

Some tweets from the given link
https://mobile.twitter.com/joe_sameer/s ... 9867281408

{regding Sukhois not getting into BVR}
Was made painfully aware in the BVR sit which unfolded on 27 Feb 19. The RVV-AE is certainly outclassed in range by the AIM-120 C-5. However, BVR combat is not only about kinematic capability of an AAM. Tactics and training go a long way along with EW.
...
The Su-30MKIs with the R-77s never got a launch command as they closed into the F-16 formation. At MAR, they cranked, still no launch command. This kept them safe from the AMRAAMs fired at them between D Max 1 & 2 with altitude/ speed advantage by F-16s.
...
The Minimum Abort Range or the MAR is the most important aspect of BVR combat, and it MUST be respected. Otherwise you die. MAR is the range at which it's possible to outrun an adversary's missile.
...
Had the MKIs not cranked, they would have been toast, especially since they wouldn't have got any warning of the C-5 launch. IMO the PAF fired at around 70 km head on. The NEZ for the C-5 is probably around 30-35 km as per data on the net.


{TSP wasting 4-5 BVR}
Thats why a salvo of C-5s was fired between DMax1/2 - a 4 round salvo gets you a Pk > 75 %. The Sukhois cranked at the MAR, keeping them safe. They never got any R-77 lock due the range differential. In fact, the R-27ER may have better range than the R-77


{regding WingCdr not using R77 over the R73}
Yes. But IMO, being vectored by GC, he would have opened up his Kopyo around 20-25 km from the second F-16 formation to delay detection. Once he had SA on the PAF jets, he locked and fired the R-73, his most reliable missile at 8-10 km head on - which is WVR
...
Because it takes time to situationally assess the combat zone, select tactical targets and lock on; all this while closing in fast. Abhi fired his R-73 after bore sighting it at 8k. I can only reveal as much :) More in an article I will be releasing soon...
...
The Kopyo is not in the league of the NO-11Bars or the RDY and has a far lesser detection range. Hence it will make sense to open up only at a range where one gets assured pick up. The R-77 has a greater range, but is limited by the radar on the Bison.
...
Kopyo is a great radar for the limited space that is there in the M21 nose cone. Works well in its designated OP role. With the R-77, the M21 gets a decent BVR capability, but is outclassed by the Mirages and the Sukhois in the IAF.


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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby negi » 19 Apr 2019 23:14

UB sir has a sweet knife , cuts deep but slow and one feels the pain only after checking the wound . :mrgreen:

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby milindc » 20 Apr 2019 01:46

gaurav.p wrote:Some tweets from the given link
https://mobile.twitter.com/joe_sameer/s ... 9867281408


I know this will not be liked in this forum, but I'm glad we are now aware the 250+ Su 30 MKI and Mig 29 with R77s are useless against F16s until they expend their AIM-120. We were assuming that Su 30 and Mig 29 will have air superiority roles but seems they are first protecting themselves. :(
With the Air Marshal coming in and stating that we need Rafale asap, this glaring shortcoming is being exposed.
It also tells us how much rot these Congress buggers left at IAF and Army. :evil:

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby A_Gupta » 20 Apr 2019 02:06

Deleted. Red herring.
Last edited by A_Gupta on 20 Apr 2019 04:03, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby A_Gupta » 20 Apr 2019 03:03

Has this one been posted before?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSBgWN9rLP8


It doesn't square with this one:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcYypAWkcO0

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 20 Apr 2019 04:11

Good lord, you guys become patsies for believing in everything which has an agenda, good or bad.

Vishnu's been fed his stuff for the IAF to push a Su30 upgrade, and hes doing his bit uncritically. Likely he just doesnt have the background to parse out the details.

First, the Bars is no slouch even in todays times. It's a Rx part AESA type system, with a Tx part TWT, hence offers a good range profile with low noise figures unlike conventional MSAs. As late as 2015-16, several accounts put it as operationally relevant against fighters with a more powerful radar set than the late model F16s the PAF has and equivalent to what we are getting via the MMRCA on some of the platforms. There is one which is streets ahead of the rest, but it comes with political baggage.

Second, He's reducing Irbis to it's most simplistic aspect, range, without looking at its gimbal and regular performance (not the crazy 350km mode). Joshi is playing along, because, well why not a bit of scare mongering is good for the IAF. That's what makes Irbis dangerous. That it has a real decent range in its regular mode and insane scan angles. Now think of cranking.

https://youtu.be/MseFZThRirc

Third, What Joshi wont get into, despite himself revealing the details, is that the RVV SD likely wouldn't have managed the height/speed differential of the F16s. They fired under optimal conditions. RVV BD would also struggle because it's not meant for agile targets, but more for long range sniping. The only real option is a dual pulse Astra because RVV SD/ BD wont cut it.

Then there is EW. Vishnu doesnt even mention it. Nor does Sameer, but then all said and done, it is where India is already putting in the most efforts.

And the entire 5 year validation, cycle us a lot of bunk. If Russia is asking us that much time for the upgrade, they better come back with a better offer.

Bottomline, he who fires first by prepping for it (as the F16s did) in the BVR game has the advantage. That part is noticeably missing from this conversation, by deliberately reducing it to a "woe is the IAF, give the money" story. Not that doesnt have some advantages. :twisted:

milindc wrote:
gaurav.p wrote:Some tweets from the given link
https://mobile.twitter.com/joe_sameer/s ... 9867281408


I know this will not be liked in this forum, but I'm glad we are now aware the 250+ Su 30 MKI and Mig 29 with R77s are useless against F16s until they expend their AIM-120. We were assuming that Su 30 and Mig 29 will have air superiority roles but seems they are first protecting themselves. :(
With the Air Marshal coming in and stating that we need Rafale asap, this glaring shortcoming is being exposed.
It also tells us how much rot these Congress buggers left at IAF and Army. :evil:

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 20 Apr 2019 04:23

The issue is not whether the C5 has a 10-20-30km range advantage vs the R77, the issue is whether there is any (available missile for/IAF) that could have managed the height differential vs receding targets issue which the IAF faced vs the F16s.

And if range alone is considered, let's not even bring in the Mica.

Good to have confirmation once again, that the issue was weapons confirmation (R77 launch command), radar etc held up fine even with PAF jamming away at max!

gaurav.p wrote:Some tweets from the given link
https://mobile.twitter.com/joe_sameer/s ... 9867281408

{regding Sukhois not getting into BVR}
Was made painfully aware in the BVR sit which unfolded on 27 Feb 19. The RVV-AE is certainly outclassed in range by the AIM-120 C-5. However, BVR combat is not only about kinematic capability of an AAM. Tactics and training go a long way along with EW.
...
The Su-30MKIs with the R-77s never got a launch command as they closed into the F-16 formation. At MAR, they cranked, still no launch command. This kept them safe from the AMRAAMs fired at them between D Max 1 & 2 with altitude/ speed advantage by F-16s.
...
The Minimum Abort Range or the MAR is the most important aspect of BVR combat, and it MUST be respected. Otherwise you die. MAR is the range at which it's possible to outrun an adversary's missile.
...
Had the MKIs not cranked, they would have been toast, especially since they wouldn't have got any warning of the C-5 launch. IMO the PAF fired at around 70 km head on. The NEZ for the C-5 is probably around 30-35 km as per data on the net.


{TSP wasting 4-5 BVR}
Thats why a salvo of C-5s was fired between DMax1/2 - a 4 round salvo gets you a Pk > 75 %. The Sukhois cranked at the MAR, keeping them safe. They never got any R-77 lock due the range differential. In fact, the R-27ER may have better range than the R-77


{regding WingCdr not using R77 over the R73}
Yes. But IMO, being vectored by GC, he would have opened up his Kopyo around 20-25 km from the second F-16 formation to delay detection. Once he had SA on the PAF jets, he locked and fired the R-73, his most reliable missile at 8-10 km head on - which is WVR
...
Because it takes time to situationally assess the combat zone, select tactical targets and lock on; all this while closing in fast. Abhi fired his R-73 after bore sighting it at 8k. I can only reveal as much :) More in an article I will be releasing soon...
...
The Kopyo is not in the league of the NO-11Bars or the RDY and has a far lesser detection range. Hence it will make sense to open up only at a range where one gets assured pick up. The R-77 has a greater range, but is limited by the radar on the Bison.
...
Kopyo is a great radar for the limited space that is there in the M21 nose cone. Works well in its designated OP role. With the R-77, the M21 gets a decent BVR capability, but is outclassed by the Mirages and the Sukhois in the IAF.


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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby fanne » 20 Apr 2019 05:05

All said and done, didn't all 5 AIM-120C miss their target/s? What is super duper then?
It's simple, TSPAF came with a plan, an ambush, they fired first, had an advantage. SU30MKI was in a ambush, saw the situation, evaded the missile.
At this range neither AIM nor R77 is suppose to work against a maneuvering target and a even half decent trained pilot. What it could achieve is, force the other side to take evasive action (if the other side pilot is even half trained, only a suice bomber equivalent of a pilot will press ahead and release his missiles by getting close, if in the meantime the apposing AA missile does not get him, totally a loser tactics. Only d1ck measuring arm chair warrior would suggest such a course of action). IAF did the right thing. After evading the missiles (which most likely would have included flying in the opposite direction), the planes repeatedly return to block TSPAF planes from advancing (a tribute to the 30MKI, it's radar, R-77 and the pilot). They could not come near to lase and release their weapon and it also gave M21 chance to shoot one of them.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Aditya_V » 20 Apr 2019 16:23

A_Gupta wrote:Has this one been posted before?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSBgWN9rLP8




This is a Mig 21 Bison crash in Rajastan in March 2019.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby UlanBatori » 20 Apr 2019 18:37

A_Gupta wrote:Has this one been posted before?
It doesn't square with this one:


Both have been pasted. The thing is that there is no way to check whether those were from India, Pakistan, 2019, 2017 or what. The second one seems to show WCdr A. Or his PakTV double who can make the bleeding wound on his forehead/left side of face appear and disappear with no trace, at will.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby UlanBatori » 20 Apr 2019 18:44

UBCN current Truth is that WingCdr A. flew west until he ran out of fuel, made sure to aim his plane towards some worthwhile target (MiG was up for disposal, which is expensive), bailed out, strolled along to the nearest PA HQ and said:
My name is Varthaman. Abhinandan Varthaman, (if u cretins can say that). Rank: Wing Commander, Indian Air Force. Serial Number (deleted)


Then after the panic had subsided and those who had not run outside or to the pakistans had realized that they were trapped under their desks,
NO, I cannot accept your surrender, sorry, nor can I get you tourist visas to India. And no, I don't have an uncle working at Wagah Border who can let you sneak in. But you can collect a nice reward from Imran Khan if you deliver me safe and sound to the Indian Air Fauj. Oh yes, and by the way, I just killed one of your F-16s. No hurry, on my way down I saw them getting beaten to death by your terrorists. So scratch TWO Pakis and one F-16s

Nananananana!!! Take that you goat-buggers!

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Bharadwaj » 20 Apr 2019 19:35

A few squadrons of su-57 along with the mki upgrade may not be a bad idea...While it may not match the uber 22 it will be sufficient for dealing with solahs, updated flankers and the (J)frigate -20. If one tenth of what VIshnu Som's sources claim is true, we will need to act quickly. I also doubt if the solahs could have locked a pair of lca's flying high cap early enough to escape some derby's fired from say 45k feet and supersonic speeds.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby fanne » 20 Apr 2019 20:06

WINGCO Abhinandan recomended for Virchakra

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby arvin » 20 Apr 2019 20:19

https://www.asianage.com/amp/india/all- ... hakra.html

12 mirage pilots also recommended for vayu sena medal

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Kakarat » 20 Apr 2019 20:34

https://twitter.com/livefist/status/1119613398868733953
As expected, the Indian Air Force has recommended Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman for a Vir Chakra. Significant, since it’s a war-time gallantry decoration (has precedents though).

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby sudeepj » 20 Apr 2019 20:37

It should be an MVC for what Abhinandana achieved. His powerful presence even in captivity will inspire the youth for generations.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby negi » 20 Apr 2019 20:42

MVC and PVC are given for exceptional and rarest of rare examples of bravery . Precedent has to be there.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby UlanBatori » 20 Apr 2019 20:53

What he showed is the standard courage and fortitude of the modern Indian soldier / police person. All those ppl u see in the helmets in the photos from J&K, Arunachal, Northeast, everywhere... this is the standard. the WingCdr simply showed a small glimpse of it. With all respect to and awe of him, I submit that it would be an insult to him and his comrades to call what he did "Maha Vir" etc. and make too much of a big deal of it.

Real heroes are like that onlee. Absolute disregard for life/comfort/wealth, everything, total detachment in absolute devotion to their Dharma. IOW, he did his duty, very well. This is why civilians should respect their people in uniform.

The rest of it is politics to rub it in and keep the events in the news. I am sure every one of those terrorist-flush-out incidents that we read, where the security forces zero in on terrorists and then go in to kill them, deserves medals for heroism, but we barely hear a peep out of those, do we? When someone walks into a terrorist-occupied house in J&K, what is his/her life expectancy? Don't you think they know that?

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby A_Gupta » 20 Apr 2019 20:58

Using Urdu keywords (via Google translate), my search of Youtube for relevant videos was fruitless.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby UlanBatori » 20 Apr 2019 21:14

Thanks, Guptaji, for the hard work. I think u have proved the point, unless someone else can still find that video. That establishes the key video (straight/close/parallel contrails with 2 puffs of WHITE vapor) as the relevant one, removed by Pakis because of what it proves. It must be one that comes up 404. Pity we can't find THE post on our threads (close to being the EARLIEST posts, I remember staring at that when the fog was at its thickest) to see the ID of it plus the 404.

So UBCN stands by the interpretation was that it showed about 12 seconds/ worth of sky, including the following critical facts:

1. The MiG was right on the tail of the F-16
2. TWO white-puff events occurred: Both probably the ejections. My guess is that the larger puff was the older one by a few seconds: Ejection #1. The "smoke"/ condensation of the canopy flying off, and the first Paki ejecting, caused that. It looks larger simply because it had been around longer, and it involved 3 events:
a) Depressurization of the F-16 cockpit: Water-vapor-laden air at a comfortable 70deg. F temp, escaped into 20deg.F. dry air. Heavy condensation.
b) Plus whatever ejected the Canpoy (maybe springs? or compressed-air?)
c) PLUS, the brave Paki #1 escaping via ejection seat: rocket exhaust but no big flame/ fuel-rich combustion causing any orange flame or black smoke

2. The second one involved only the second ejection, so probably less white puff also because there was only the ejection seat #2 blasting out of an already depressurized, open cockpit

3. The F-16 CONTINUED STRAIGHT AND LEVEL B4 AND AFTER ejections.

4. The IAF missile exploded BEYOND THE HORIZON: no orange flame or black smoke or spreading explosion seen.

5. Both parachutes seen in that video were Paki.

6. IAF MiG encountered trouble AFTER the R-73 blew the (empty!!!) F-16 to bits, BEYOND the horizon.
7. WCdr AV's MiG got into trouble WEST of the F-16 downing, but not much, but b4 he could turn back home.

Those events were simply ***NOT SEEN** on that Video #1. All the rest of the videos are bogus/ focused only on the two Paki chutes coming down.
The one seen, of the musharrafs of kids running, was identified, IIRC as from being an Indian or Pak air force plane crashing some months/ years ago inside respective territory. Unfortunately I think it was inside India. Look at the clothing of the runners, and the vegetation and you may realize that it is not Winter POK valley.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby MeshaVishwas » 20 Apr 2019 21:25

From someone in the west not getting Kool Aid from the Terrorists in uniform.
Ignore the provacative headline.
Giant Mystery: Why the Would India Send an Old MiG-21 to Attack an F-16?

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/giant-mystery-why-would-india-send-old-mig-21-attack-f-16-53537

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Rahul M » 20 Apr 2019 21:28

negi wrote:MVC and PVC are given for exceptional and rarest of rare examples of bravery . Precedent has to be there.

he took on a gang of superior F-16's in a mig-21. that is exceptional in my eyes. pressed his attack at deadly peril. deserved at least a MVC.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby mmasand » 20 Apr 2019 21:52



Is this what you've been looking for?

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby negi » 20 Apr 2019 22:07

Rahul M wrote:
negi wrote:MVC and PVC are given for exceptional and rarest of rare examples of bravery . Precedent has to be there.

he took on a gang of superior F-16's in a mig-21. that is exceptional in my eyes. pressed his attack at deadly peril. deserved at least a MVC.

Bondhu you know better than me , look at MVC citations that have been awarded as of today for instance for Wing Commander Padmanabha Gautam in 1971 he lead multiple raids during the conflict and not one mission .

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby UlanBatori » 20 Apr 2019 22:22

mmasand wrote:
Is this what you've been looking for?

Thx. But no. (This is becoming like the Search 4 A Real Princess Ayesha, aka "Prinjej oph The Pee" ) :shock:
White dot splitting in two MAY be ejection seat separating from musharraf-e-PAFpilot (pbuh). As mentioned b4, there were EIGHT flying objects/debris clouds to watch for:
Three (3) #s falling pilots eventually w/ parachutes opening
THREE (3) #s ejection seats in free fall
TWO (2) fighter planes, with one of them probably disintegrating into a debris cloud far up. **NO****** videos have been seen that show either of those planes coming down. The first would have been the F-16 with an initial fireball, maybe a spreading cloud of orange flame, black smoke, and then a shower of pieces, some of them quite large (like wings).

The other would have been a fighter plane in a terminal glide, moving very fast. More on that below.

But there are no long contrails visible in that video frame, which means I can't explain the stationary puff (which may be a lot higher up in altitude). May be an isolated cloud puff for all I know. So no, this is not the killer video.

All these videos have a power line running right above the camera: so they must have been taken standing at the doorway of some PoKi (or other) pakistan: the power line being the fine handiwork of Abdul's Bijlee Sarbhij who stole it from the main grid. There are several other pieces there, and you can see some objects in mostly free fall: no real parachute opening IIRC.

But in such a video frame, the contrails would have been far off the screen, maybe to left and above. See our following post for further speculation400% Reliable Explanation

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Rishi » 20 Apr 2019 22:37



Brof UB, is this the one?

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby UlanBatori » 20 Apr 2019 23:01

Further explanation of the aero-dynamix of these things. Evidence: MiG-21 nose was found essentially intact, except that the circular cross-section was now pancaked into a flat elliptic cross-section. The rest of the wreckage was mostly behind that. Which means that the MiG essentially crash-landed in horizontal attitude, still flying nose-first, but hit on the belly first. Engine etc here destroyed by resulting fire, which means there was still fuel in the wings.

Let's think about that. AFAIK, the MiG was at some 5000 to 10,000 feet AGL when it fired its missile at the F-16. (Ground level is itself at 3500 to 5000 feet in those parts), so the above works out to 8500 to 15000 feet MSL. The highest altitude cited was around 20,000 feet, that the F-16 zoomed to shake off the MiG, before diving for the "deck" and then climbing out again, and happily flying west towards home, probably on full afterburner.

When they realized to their fatal shock that the MiG was RIGHT BEHIND THEM, which meant they have about 10 seconds to live. They hit the ejection button(s).

OK, MiG kept them in manual, visual lock as the missile caught up with the F-16, and probably entered a tailpipe and exploded. BUT.... the MiG pilot was stunned to see that there was no last-second evasive maneuver; the bugger(ed) flew straight!!! So when the explosion occurred, it occurred right in front of the MiG, at maybe 1000 meters to 2000 meters? (just guessing here). Stuff flew in all directions at Mach 3 or so. No time to evade, the MiG flew right into the debris cloud. Now we have to speculate:

Scenario A:
With automatic instinctive skill he started turning (maybe even climbing since the target was going to go downwards). But the debris cloud caught up with him slightly. At that point he was probably 7km from the LOC. If he was headed home, he was at say 1km AGL (minimum), travelling say Mach 2. IOW, 600m/s. His engine went out.

His plane was straight and level when it lost power. So instinctively he went to Attitude for Best Glide and looked for a landing field, but no hope to land a supersonic jet in such terrain. This speed is far less than Mach 2: let's say Mach 0.6, and he had covered maybe 1 km EASTWARDS in that time. He set it up for best glide, and jumped out. He was also going Mach 0.6.

Let's think about that.

The plane has a nominal L/D of say 10 in level flight, but at this condition with canopy gone, the L/D may be only, say, 7. According to Madarssa Phyling Carbet pissicks, this means the glide slope is inverse tangent of D/L, or ATAN(1/7). That is 8.13 degrees!
If the glide is 1 in 7, that means that he will come down 1000 meters, ONLY AFTER TRAVELING 7000 METERS, or 7 km. He was already at 6.5km, so the plane would hit the ground inside the LOC!!!

What about himself? He was basically like a stone thrown at Mach 0.6 from 1000 meters above the ground. As he came closer to the ground his chute opened, but then the strong wind caught him. So he had some HOPES of coming down inside India, but no surety. As it happened, the winds from EAST to WEST, so he got blown deeper into POK. This explains all the confusion, why he initially hoped he had fallen inside India etc.

But maybe that is **NOT** what happened, because the wreckage did not fall east of the LOC.

Maybe the L/D was only like 4, in which case the wreckage came down about 2 ro 3km WEST of LOC.

******************************
Scenario B:
Within a second or two after the debris cloud, WCdr. AV realized that he was in trouble: the engine was going phut-phut. He had to shut it down to prevent a catastrophic "uncontained engine failure" which would have sliced him to ribbons. But his plane was still straight and level. Not much chance of turning around, hydraulic fluid was leaking etc. So he had to eject, in order to land as far East as he possibly could. He was still headed west when the MiG became inop, and he realized there was no hope of turning it around. Bailed out. Then the plane would have fallen as deep as 14 km WEST of the LOC. As his parachute opened, he realized that the wind was blowing him at speed relative to the terrain below, so he had some slight hope that he would land East of the LOC (hard to check ur compass as ur are spinning at the end of a parachute blowing in the wind, and anyway there isn't a damn thing you can do to influence events).

In this case he was merely hoping, if it is true that he initially asked if he was in India.

Which means that our latest explanation holds: He shouted Jai Hind! at the local PA HQ, sending most of them scampering for cover screaming "INDIAN SURGICAL STRIKE!!! RUN!!!" :eek: :((

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby UlanBatori » 20 Apr 2019 23:02

Rishi, sorry: no contrails. But at least there are no clouds in this one. The object seen may be any one of the EIGHT objects cited b4. Same power line visible.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby chetak » 21 Apr 2019 00:10

The IAF may be recommending abhinandan for a vir chakra and the others who took part in the raid for the vayu medal.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Rahul M » 21 Apr 2019 00:13

negi wrote:
Rahul M wrote:he took on a gang of superior F-16's in a mig-21. that is exceptional in my eyes. pressed his attack at deadly peril. deserved at least a MVC.

Bondhu you know better than me , look at MVC citations that have been awarded as of today for instance for Wing Commander Padmanabha Gautam in 1971 he lead multiple raids during the conflict and not one mission .

yes, I have some idea. two of my relatives got VrC for shooting down PAF fighters. :wink:
and I think WC Abhinandan's achievement is of a higher calibre than theirs(no disrespect intended, obviously), simply because of the odds arrayed against him. If it was a peer vs peer fight I would have agreed.
The very fact that he was shot down tells us what a perilous engagement it was, if he had simply fired his R-77's to scatter the F-16's and dived himself to dodge counter-fire, no one would have blamed him. Fact is, he didn't, he pressed on, knowing fully well he might be shot down and killed, or worse, tortured. I went through the MVC citations. True, most of them are awarded for multiple raids. But then so are the VrC citations !!
Of the MVC citations, the one that seemed most similar was SL Devaya's. Both were flying inferior aircraft but still pressed on at grave personal risk. Both were shot down, only difference is WC Abhinandan survived.

Let me also say an unpleasant thing here. It's our great fortune that he survived the bailout and the venomous pakis. Do you think if things were otherwise, AND we knew he shot down that F-16, a VrC would have been all he received ?

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby UlanBatori » 21 Apr 2019 00:52

Since mid-February, some 50-odd Indians and 800+ Pakis have died violently in/near J&K. Not counting the 30 or so Iranians and some 200 or 300 Pakis in/near Balochistan.

To me the most heartwarming aspect of the whole episode is that India flat-out threatened all-out war, nuclear be damned, to get ONE pilot returned unharmed. I hope ***THAT** becomes standard policy!! Dimran jabbering "MODI HAS THREATENED TO USE MISSILES" to his "parliament" of piranha, was priceless.
Perhaps Putinji's demeanor through the Syrian war, was watched with deep interest in dilli.


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