MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 19 Sep 2019 16:49

nachiket wrote:There were a grand total of 4 IAF fighters in the air (in the area in question) when the incoming attack (with 24 fighters) was detected. Only after WingCo Abhinandan and his wingman scrambled (thank God for the Mig-21's exceptionally low scramble time) did that total become 6.

Even if IAF was not following the unwritten BVR rules (no BVR attacks across the LoC) the IAF pilots might have been loathe to fire off their BVRAAMs at very long ranges with low kill probability. They were vastly outnumbered and would have had to use their weapons judiciously.


Nailed it. IAF pilots would be conserving every round that matters.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 19 Sep 2019 16:51

manjgu wrote:balakote had strategic implications/ramifications...Feb 27 was a minor tactical action ( in short) ... but the napakis think otherwise !!


They are jumping over themselves because both St Antony's disarmament drive devastated our capabilities and Modi V1.0's cautious funding did not lead to massive recapitalization. So they feel confident and uppity.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby mmasand » 21 Sep 2019 01:10

Grab a bag of popcorn.


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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 21 Sep 2019 01:52

Rahul Kanwals mannerisms...grrrrr...!

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Rakesh » 09 Oct 2019 06:31

https://twitter.com/VishnuNDTV/status/1 ... 1456023553 ----> So Avenger 1 (extreme right aircraft), an IAF Su-30 that Pak insisted was downed a day after Balakot ... makes an appearance on Air Force day, apparently flown by the same pilots who were "shot down.'' The IAF provides transparency, what about Pak and Doosra Banda?

Image

https://twitter.com/joe_sameer/status/1 ... 3530766337 ---> In a sharp rebuttal to PAF's false claim of shooting down an IAF Su-30MKI during Operation Swift Retort - the IAF flew the 'Avenger' formation on its 87th Air Force Day showcasing 3 x No 9 Sqn Mirage 2000s, escorted by 2 x No 15 Sqn Su-30MKIs, YES - the same 'Avenger-1' crew claimed by the PAF.

Image

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Rakesh » 09 Oct 2019 06:34

Drag & Drop this picture into a new window. She is a beauty!

Congratulations to all Air Warriors on occasion of the 87th Air Force Day. Remembering the unsung heroes who stood steadfast in face of challenges & adversities in the finest traditions of the IAF - TouchTheSkyWithGlory!

A Superb Flanker click by Saurav Chordia (https://twitter.com/SauravChordia1).

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Aditya_V » 09 Oct 2019 12:09

Its been more than 6 months but I hope we get atleast unofficial details

26 Feb 19 morning

1) What did we hit on Muzaffarabad and Chakoti

27 Feb 19 morning

1) Why did IAF not launch BVR missiles, did it require authorization and in the 10-12 minutes that it took the air engaments were over

Now that 2 Air Chief Marshals have publicly stated that PAF came to hit miltary targets but missed, let us put this theory to rest. Thats after Mirage launched H-4 bombs and Jf-17 launched 83 REK missed, the group 3 F-16's came close/crossed LOC and launched a LGB at Naushera Brigade HQ.

Finally, hopefully we get the details of the Tail No. and the Pilots who died for the PAF. I am sure some of the Pakistani videos later taken down by the Pakistanis, should have been downloaded and digitally enhanced by our intelligence agencies, Plus surely we should got hand of Adbul videos taken during Internet blackout in POK. Plus the US would have the details as they have thier men in Sargodha and would have examined the wreckage for any tampering- we should get these details through unoffical channels by now.

Looking at the Thanamandi and Mirpur videos, the sequence of events looks like,

1) From Thanamandi, you can see a fighter aircraft shot down, forming a Tadpole shape and vapor trail of another aircraft turnign around and moving away- this is probably the F-16 going down


2) From POk Mirpur you see an aircraft going down and another at 15 sec turning away, exactly 1 minute later at 1:15 anther aircraft comes in the same place and launches a Missile. This is probably the Mig 21 going down, no tadpole shape etc. and the F-16 launching an AMRAAM at Abhinandan's Wingman in tail chase scenario which missed.


From IAF radar images Both Abhinandan and his wingman crossed the LOC.

I my 2 paise is this, Abhinandan and his wing man

1) They went after the 3 F-16's which came to launch LGB and using superior momentum and intercept speed to intercept the F-16 with an R-73

2) With thier RWR's ringing they turned towards the Mangla dam F-16's and wanted to take them out as well when an AMRAAM hit Wing COmmanders Abhinandan aircraft, his wingman at point probably based radio orders started to get back towards LOC.

This would explain the position and initial reports of Wing COmmander said he just lock tone. They shot 1 F-16 and wanted to go after others when an AMRAAM hit when he about to launch the 2nd R-73 at his aggressor.
Last edited by Aditya_V on 09 Oct 2019 12:32, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 09 Oct 2019 12:23

1. There were no other strikes.
2. The IAF trains its pilots well, when outnumbered, they had 20-24 missiles amongst the two Su-30s vs 48 missiles on the 8 Vipers (assuming 6 missiles each). It is extremely important then, to not waste your AAM unless you have proper launch authorization & that authorization relates to a high Pk shot.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Aditya_V » 09 Oct 2019 12:37

That sounds reasonable., and that is one area where IAF has few Airbases while PAF has many.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Aditya_V » 09 Oct 2019 18:32

To add to it, the AMRAAM recovered was from Chassana Tehsil in Reasi District, it was most probably the AMRAAM fired at Wing Commander wingman, from the Video there seems to around 1 minute and few seconds, the Mig 21 on afterburner would have been 20Km ahead of the F-16 who probably wanted to launch and turn before the LOC.

http://www.uniindia.com/j-k-police-rewards-cops-others-for-quick-action-on-amraam-remnants/north/news/1515850.html

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby manjgu » 09 Oct 2019 19:39

KaranM ... 1) i am working on point 1 !! hopefully soon will get it from horses mouth. 2) Does the map display in the cockpit tell the pilot if LOC has been crossed?? i mean does a shallow ingress of 1 to 5 km inside enemy airspace show up on the map display inside the cockpit or a 3rd party tells?? just curious.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby rohitvats » 09 Oct 2019 19:45

Aditya_V wrote:That sounds reasonable., and that is one area where IAF has few Airbases while PAF has many.


On the contrary, that is one sector where IAF has bases while Pakistan Air Force has none! Except for the airfield in Skardu.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 09 Oct 2019 20:03

manjgu wrote:KaranM ... 1) i am working on point 1 !! hopefully soon will get it from horses mouth. 2) Does the map display in the cockpit tell the pilot if LOC has been crossed?? i mean does a shallow ingress of 1 to 5 km inside enemy airspace show up on the map display inside the cockpit or a 3rd party tells?? just curious.


It most definitely should, if the aircraft has a digital map generator which is interfaced with a mission system, with proper navigation set. However, I can't find a depiction of the Bison having a Digital Map Generator or a Moving Map display.

The upgrade consists of Phazotron NIIR's Kopyo multimode X-band pulse Doppler radar, New nosecone, new canopy, single-piece windshield and new canopy made of stressed acrylic composites, Sextant's TOTEM RLG-INS with NSS-100P GPS embedded GPS receivers, El-Op HUD Sextant MFD-55 LCD display, Autopilot, DRDO's Tarang radar warning receivers (RWR), digital flight data recorder, new liquid air cooling system, HOTAS controls, a SURA helmet mounted sight, stores management system, digital air data computer system, short range radio navigation system, new HF/VHF/UHF radios, twin conformal Vympel flare dispensers (26mm, 120 rounds) and a new electric power supply system. Reportedly the new RWR to be fitted, is an indigenous system developed by DRDO and goes by the name Tarang. A modified version of this RWR will be used aboard the Su-30MKI.


https://www.bharat-rakshak.com/IAF/airc ... ig-21.html

[Edit]I did find some references that it has a DMG, but not confirmed.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Aditya_V » 09 Oct 2019 20:19

rohitvats wrote:
Aditya_V wrote:That sounds reasonable., and that is one area where IAF has few Airbases while PAF has many.


On the contrary, that is one sector where IAF has bases while Pakistan Air Force has none! Except for the airfield in Skardu.


This is Pir Panjal, southern J&K, In our side it is Srinagar, Awatipura, Pathankot and Adampur AFB. The Paf has Murid, Sargodha, PAC Kamra, Chaklala, Mianwali, Risalpur. This is because of geography and PAF has made sure its main bases cover Rawalpindi, Isloo area

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby fanne » 10 Oct 2019 21:44

Yes in jk and chicken neck iaf has only few bases while paf has many

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby sajaym » 11 Oct 2019 15:02

fanne wrote:Yes in jk and chicken neck iaf has only few bases while paf has many


If this is the case, then IAF needs to activate some road mobile fighter detachments in these areas. Such a road mobile detachment should have 2 fighter jets stationed at the nearest Indian Army base (can also be 2 Hawk-i jets, operated by the Indian Army Aviation). These 2 jets can then be launched from the nearest road, when required. This whole Bison incident shows how much of a difference 2 jets can make if they appear quickly where required.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Aditya_V » 11 Oct 2019 15:08

Not possible or practical, what IAF can do is use convert Airports like Gaggal Airport in HP into Miltary cum civilian airposts to house 8-10 aircraft with proper concerete shelters, this can address the shortfall in the area

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby fanne » 11 Oct 2019 16:28

Geography makes it harder. If you take jammu latitude. On India side Himalayas have already started. The ground on average is at 3k to 4K elevation, while on tsp side, it is still plane, almost at sea level.it is so for another 50-100 kilometer north and west.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 11 Oct 2019 18:37

Unless someone with first hand info chips in, a casual survey of all the stuff printed shows no presence of a DMG for the MiG-21 Bison.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Aditya_V » 11 Oct 2019 21:42

I guess that's where lack of SDR / DMG and PAF radio jamming played a role in Wing Commander parachuting around 3-4 km accross the LOC.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby nam » 11 Oct 2019 23:15

Based on the location & direction of WC Abhi's Mig21, it was clear he was flying back. He obviously had an inkling that he was across the LC.

He may not have map generator, but obviously he knew how far the LC was from Srinagar AFB. He was going straight to interception, not flying around in CAP.

He knew he shot the F16 in PoK and he was flying back. So it is nonsense to believe, he went across PoK, because he was flying blind.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby nachiket » 11 Oct 2019 23:51

Aditya_V wrote:Not possible or practical, what IAF can do is use convert Airports like Gaggal Airport in HP into Miltary cum civilian airposts to house 8-10 aircraft with proper concerete shelters, this can address the shortfall in the area

One thing to note is that in a hot war, IAF will probably move additional assets to the forward airbases and would have many more aircraft available for mounting CAP's than there were on Feb 27.

They could not do that before the Balakot strikes in order to maintain the element of surprise. That was one reason the PAF responded immediately the next day because even a few days between the events might mean there are additional IAF assets available in the sector to counter them.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 11 Oct 2019 23:55

It was not a question of surprise IMHO. It was prudence. They did not have HAS to station other assets like Su-30s. That meant if they stationed these assets within the envelope of PAF's REKs and PA's Nasr type munitions, they were at risk. Once we get S-400, Barak-8, Akash in number plus sufficient HAS, this problem will be tackled. Even otherwise, in a hot war, IAF will surge assets to these areas, use the forward airbases to stage, and then withdraw the heavier assets deeper into India. The AD bubble provided by the SAM network will compensate for any perceived weakness in CAP for most AFB, bar those where terrain is an issue for SAMs.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby nachiket » 12 Oct 2019 00:12

Even if they had the HAS and adequate SAM's available, any increase in IAF activity, especially significant number of additional aircraft being surged forward cannot go unnoticed. The Feb 26 strikes may have gone differently if the PAF hadn't been caught off guard.

The intention was a cross-border strike without triggering war. If it had been an opening gambit of an all-out war, the IAF would be less concerned about achieving surprise and accepted a few losses in the strike package with more focus on outnumbering and outgunning the PAF.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 12 Oct 2019 00:16

What I am saying is the IAF can always surge aircraft forward once it has assets available to protect them. Till they dont have those assets, its very risky for them to station aircraft there for CAP. The Feb 26th strikes did not succeed merely because IAF landed up unannounced. They also succeeded because a large package of Su30s played spoiler and deliberately triggered the entire PAF AD network. Once that happened, the Mirages went ahead with their attack. Even otherwise, the IAF will seek to station as many aircraft as possible, deeper in India and then stage them ahead only for short periods.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby sudeepj » 12 Oct 2019 03:49

We are soon going to have a proliferation of SDB type weapons that can pass clean through a solid meter or two of concrete. Are HAS still relevant in this threat environment or they are like the forts on maginot line? I personally am not sure. May be the 'next gen' HAS are hard enough to stop even 1000lbers or 2000lbers.. If not, how to deny weapons launched from standoff ranges, guided by civil positioning signals and/or optical matching.. ?

Physical stationing of assets deep inside outside the range of attack can help. Another thing that may help is land based kashtan or phalanx to shoot out sdb/jdam types.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby srai » 12 Oct 2019 04:21

^^^
DRDO NG HAS can withstand direct hit by a 2000lb bomb.

IAF to get Next Generation Hardened Aircraft Shelters
The IAF now has a thumbs up to build 108 present day shelters to house fighter aircrfats in forward territories on India's northern outskirts when China has increase movement in the Tibet Autonomous Region, which neglects Arunachal Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Ladakh.

The Union Cabinet had recently allocated about Rs 5,500 crore for the project to build the Next Generation Hardened Aircraft Shelters (NGHAS)

NGHAS are specialised structures comprising layers of reinforced concrete, sand and steel. They can protect aircraft from direct hits by a 2,000-pound bomb.

Majority of these solidified safe houses will be intended to house the Russian made Su-30 MKi – the backbone of IAF's warriors.

Earlier IAF did not had defensive shelters to keep the Su-30Mki. NGHAS are not accessible for even the restricted quantities of aircraft that is available with the Service,"

IAF bases in the western sector have “blast pens”, which are supposed to protect aircraft from the effects of blasts in case of an attack. However, they can't give the protection as that of NGHAS

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 12 Oct 2019 10:48

I wish they hadnt mentioned the blast protection levels. Complete lack of understanding about Opsec from our babus. :|

Anyhow, there will be a layered defence around these bases. Akash can take out PGMs, but the true cost effective answer is a CIWS.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Mollick.R » 12 Oct 2019 16:24

srai wrote:^^^
DRDO NG HAS can withstand direct hit by a 2000lb bomb..................


the same news article is floating around from Jan 2019.

Link

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/eye-on-chinese-army-iaf-gets-nod-for-fighter-jets-shelters-on-border/story-ekjOLm2294wqpxirzSzlsK.html

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby srai » 12 Oct 2019 21:25

Karan M wrote:I wish they hadnt mentioned the blast protection levels. Complete lack of understanding about Opsec from our babus. :|

Anyhow, there will be a layered defence around these bases. Akash can take out PGMs, but the true cost effective answer is a CIWS.


That 2000lb is mentioned in the DRDO documentation as well.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 12 Oct 2019 22:28

Before that elsewhere as well. Can only hope disinfo, edited link.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Rakesh » 18 Oct 2019 17:44

Paks gleefully happy on Tweetar, over this :lol:

https://twitter.com/MysticIntel/status/ ... 3854127104 ---> An eye witness account of an Indian Airforce plane shot over IOJK. As per the eye witness, the plane crashed in Sher Makri area. This makes perfect sense as for this is from where the Abhinandan also entered Pakistan Airspace. He crashed inside AJK, while Su-30 in IOK.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Rakesh » 18 Oct 2019 17:45

Video of the "supposed" eye witness account of the Su-30MKI being shot down by the PAF. Click on the link below.

https://twitter.com/DefencedotPak/statu ... 7457887232 ---> While Indian Air Force try to cover their losses on 27 February 2019; an Indian eyewitness discloses the other loss of IAF on that day near Sher Makri area, Indian occupied Kashmir. ABP News reports through Indian accounts that IAF plane crashed inside IoK. Was it "Avenger"?

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Karan M » 18 Oct 2019 18:42

That video was posted ages ago. Looks like Avenger 1 shown off on AF Day irritated their sensitive beards.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Rakesh » 18 Oct 2019 18:49

Aah okay. Thanks Karan.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Rakesh » 24 Oct 2019 23:29

MiG-29UPG crew exposure to F-16s suggest a change of Tactics
https://ssbprep.com/mig-29upg-crew-expo ... of-tactics
21 Oct 2019

A little known fact is that when Pakistani Air Force F-16s were firing volleys of BVR Air-to-Air missile at a lone Sukhoi-30MKI ” Avenger-1″ a Pair of upgraded MiG-29UPG Multi-role fighter jets at took off from Adampur Airbase to intercept PAF F-16s flying near LOC. MiG-29UPG Pair took off in time and were soon in supersonic speed flying towards the sector where F-16s were hovering around but before it reached its station, F-16 had fled the spot seeing more Indian bogeys coming close to the scene of action.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Aditya_V » 25 Oct 2019 11:11

That was the key, the sequence of events most probably was this all IST

1) PAF Mirage 5 and JF-17 launch h-4 and 8- 83REK bombs trying to hit hit IA targets- 2 IAF chiefs have now stated PAF came to hit IA targets, with the 2 M-2000 and 2 Su-30 on Patrol, they probably launched these weapons at max range and without the Mirage 5 flying close 10-15KM radio range of the H-4, the last part the H-4's could not be guided to the IA targets. This was probably Launch at 10:08 and by 10:15 PAF realized these missed by a mile.

2) PAF then restorted to the 2nd stage of their plan, people like Squadron leader Hassan Siddiqui came in fast at High altitude with full afterburners while other F-16's were shadow boxing with the Su-30MKI and launched 4-5 AMRAAMS at them expecting a kill, these pushed the Su-30MKI's to go into tactical maneuvers to start dodging the AMRAAMs.

3) Squadron leader Minty Agarwal seeing the situation asks the IAF to start scrambling, 2 Mig 21 Bisons from Srinagar Budgam AFB on ORP are prabably the first to scramble.

4) Seeing the Su-30MKI's doing evasive maneuvers and unable to engage a group of 3 F-16's with the lead F-16 twin seater come in close to the LOC to bomb Brigade HQ at Rajouri, while they are targeting, the SAAB ereye "VIGIL' warns them 2 bogies have suddenly appeared over the Pir Panjal, the lead F-16 quickly releases a LGB and all 3 engaging afterburner to go back.

5) Using the superior straight line speed the 2 Mig-21 Bisons catch up and get the 2 seater F-16 near Charhoi with a R-73 missile and then turn to engage the other F-16's to possibly get another kill. this happens at 10:22 AM

6) While the 2 Mig 21 Bisons are engaging other F-16's and facing in a Southwesterly direction and about 45-50 seconds after the 1st F-16 is down a F-16 coming from the Westerly direction and probably outside the Kopyo radar cone and the RWR angle of the Mig-21 Bisons an F-16 probably flown by Wing Commander Noman Ali gets Alpha-1 Wing Commander Abhinandan's with an Amraam- who probably has a tone and about to launch his 2nd R-73 missile. This happens at 10:23 AM

7) Alpha-2 Wingman of Wing commander of Abhinandan who was guarding him from a rear attack is now ordered to get back to this side of the LOC while the F-16 now is targeting him, he now turns and heads towards Srinagar Budgam AFB using afterburners , A F-16 approaches using afterburners approaches to the edge of the LOC a few Kilometers north west of were Wing Commander Abhinandan was hit and Launches an AMRAAM. You can see from the Mirpur video that after an aircraft is coming down (totally different from the Tadpole shaped burning fuselage shot in the videos at Charhoi in POK and Tanamandi in J&K)- an aircraft is turning and engaging after afterburners at 15 sec to 22 secs and heading North East, another aircraft comes in after 1 minute and launches a missile a few Kilometers from the Mig 21 Bison coming down. 1 minute afterburner of a Mig 21 Bison should mean a head start of around 20-23KM. This probably too much for the AMRAAM to catch up in a Tail Chase engagement and falls in Chassana Police station limits of Reasi District, it is this particular AMRAAM which is brought to New Delhi for display.

8 ) By 10:25 AM, the Mirage 5 and and the JF-17's have landed at their airbases , the F-16's are now ordered to get back to PAF bases with full afterburners, the SAAB erieye aircraft also now deceides to land at Chaklala.

9) 4 Mig-21 Bisons from Srinagar Budgam, 2 Mig 29's from Adampur , Avenger -1 and Avenger -2 Su30MKI, 2 M-2000 I/TI are now in the air but now there are no PAF aircraft to do battle, they are all well within Pakistan or have landed at PAF bases. It has taken 5-10 minutes IAF has now control of the Air.

PAF probably correctly predicted without Political clearance IAF- IA even if they control the air cannot do another strike immediately and it was very unlikely. PA knew this thats why thier T-80 Tanks in Mirpur area all left thier Barracks and decided to mingle with civilians messing up the roads in the area, they realized thier air cover was nanga and they were juicy targets.

The only reason the PAF decided to respond was not because of Balakot but the best laid plans at Chakoti and Muzaffarabad area in POK got destroyed on 26-Feb-19 morning. Our MEA for international opinion tried to omit these 2 strikes.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Aditya_V » 26 Oct 2019 13:05

One more Tid Bit of news we guys missed, Pakis carried of NASR missile exercises on 9 Feb 19- 5 days before Pulwama and everyone was talking of possible IAF strikes post Pulwama and they just acquired Ly-80. I think its highly likely rather than the IAF attempt at the strike but the fact they probably lost NASR and LY80 missile systems on 26 Feb 19 which PAF to launch its pretty much failed strikes on 27-Feb 19 morning.

I think they wanted to show IAF aircraft down during the strike which didnt happen.

fanne
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby fanne » 26 Oct 2019 21:07

https://twitter.com/hukum2082

Aditya ji, my inference is slightly different. Please refer to attached map

My take is based on following assumptions -

1. TSPAF had 4 group of 4 fighters each - a)4 M -3 extreme south (facing mid Punjab), b) second group (main AG component)- 4 JF-17 and 4 M-V slightly north of it (facing our north Punjab), c) 4 F-16 over mangla dam - facing Jammu - Their main cap (A-A role) and finally d) 4 F-16 further north (possibly both AA and AG role and the commander of the mission here, alpha -3)

2. Facing A and B group were 2 M2000 (upgraded ones) - That attack from TSP did not go anywhere because of M2000 presence. JF-17 and M5s did not press in and possibly missed targets (my assumption still is perhaps they were not targeting, as we had not targeted their military, it was signaling, but even if they wanted, the attack would have failed as M2V had to break lock)

3. The C group of 4 f-16S(along with D (4-f16s), D not perhaps fully engaged) were engaging 2 SU30MKI.

4. As you rightly point out at this time the D group of F-16s start their A to G run (the C group is pure CAP)

Now here things get interesting. 2 Mig 21 shows up suddenly on TSPAF AWEC planes (or even F-16), as soon as they pull up from the shadows of pir panjal ranges. The two Mig 21s are apposite alpha 2 and alpha 3 of D group of F-16. The 4 f-16s from the D group, their alpha 1 is most south, followed by alpha 2 slightly north of it (apposite Abhi), alpha 3 F-16 is opposite wingman of Abhi (and he is most east as he is initiating LGB attack, nearest to the border), alpha 4 is farthest north.

TSPAF AWEC allocates Abhi to Alpha 2, and his wingman to Alpha -3. Alpha 3 breaks LGB attack and engages Abhi's wingman through AMARAAM. The wingman does the tactical maneuver, gets out of NEZ and puts AMARAAM in chase mode and ultimately escapes.
Meantime, Abhi also targets Alpha -3 who is busy shooting at his wingman, is most east and near the border (alpha 4 would be his wingman, while alpha 1 and 2 of TSP formed another pair) and towards his north and perhaps at his 2- 3 o'clock (the perfect place for a R-73). R-73 gets a lock and and shoots down F-16 (APHA-3), who may not have known till the last that there was a R-73 heading its way. As far as he knew, Alpha -2 was keeping the other Mig 21 busy.
The TSPAF F-16 (alpha 2) was some half a minute to a minute late, it reaches the scene, while Abhi is exiting the area after a successful kill, he sneaks close enough and perhaps in NEZ for AMARAAM and fires. Even though ABhi is in tail chase mode, AMARAAM reaches him.

If the above is true, we were indeed lucky that day.

The MIG 21 did not go after the C group (that was pure cap and engaging SU 30 MKI, they were not A-G, group D was, and they could have caused causality if they were not just sending messages, but Mig 21 spoiled their plan. I think the ground control would have read that and vectored Mig 21 correctly).
Also both Mig 21 engaged the same F-16 (alpha-3), if Abhi went after alpha -2, he would have done the same maneuver as his wingman, both would have disengaged, and dodged the AMAARAMs. In this case, no loses from either side. The Alpha -2 of TSP was not the real hero, in spite of shooting the M21, he was slow, and because of that, F-16 was lost.
At abhi's 3 o'clock and downed F-16 9 o'clock, both planes were in the blind spot of each other radar (no radar looks at 90 degrees). But the Hemet cued R-73 would have picked F-16 as it came to it's 3 o'clock. It was a fight readymade for M21 and Abhi made sure that it was executed to perfection.

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Postby Roop » 27 Oct 2019 01:16

Aditya_V wrote:The only reason the PAF decided to respond was not because of Balakot but the best laid plans at Chakoti and Muzaffarabad area in POK got destroyed on 26-Feb-19 morning. Our MEA for international opinion tried to omit these 2 strikes.


Interesting theory. This question (what happened at Chakoti and Muzaffarabad on 26-Feb-19 morning? ) has been the subject of much curiosity and speculation among us, but we don't have an official answer. As you say, the GoI has so far kept it hush-hush for political reasons. What is your theory? Are you saying that Pakis had some secret radar/missile systems there that got destroyed by IAF on 26 Feb AM?

As to the question "Why did GoI want to keep it hush-hush?", I think that was a political decision to minimize the chances of an international diplomatic halla-gulla after the strikes. Recall that Indian military/political spokespeople went to great lengths to stress, in their public statements, that this was a strike against terrorist targets, i.e. no Paki civilian or military targets were struck.

For the same reason IMO (avoiding an international political furor) IAF were under standing orders from GoI not to respond aggressively to PAF strikes on Feb 27 (i.e. not to cross the LOC and go after their planes unless in PoK airspace unless PAF entered Indian airspace). That (GoI standing orders) was the reason IAF response was so restrained, not some complicated technical analysis of PAF's radar/missiles versus IAF's radar/missiles. In the months since Balakot we have seen probably hundreds of questions on this forum along the lines of "Why didn't the IAF use this plane or that missile or falana tactic to go after the PAF and shoot down some of their planes?". The answer, IMO, is quite simple: PM had decided, politically, to de-escalate, not escalate.

It is interesting to note (as per rumors) that Indian calculations and risk assessments changed completely after the capture of W/Cdr Abhinandan. It appears that PM communicated a message to Pakis (and their various international dallas / chamchas) that India was prepared to go to total war if Abhi was not released within 24 hrs (or whatever the deadline was). Even more interesting was that Pakis obviously took the threat seriously released him. None of their usual bluster / bakwaas.


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