MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

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ShivS
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by ShivS »

@Karan

Thanks for that reply - it’s a great summary.

In my mind the open questions really revolve around the period before the close happened.

1. How could the PAF predict the AWACS going off station? Balakote was 2 days prior, not enough time to establish a pattern unless the AWACS is airborne every day.

2. The NOC/IACCS, had to take active decisions- this is really hard, there is stress and confusion. I hope we were at the highest peacetime alert status. In that case shouldn’t a rules based approach mandate that if 24 PAF fighters are getting airborne, we need more than 4 birds in the air for CAP.

Between Ambala, Halwara and Hoshiarpur we have our choice of Su30, Mig29 and Mirages. Should we have scrambled more aircraft, and quicker.

The value of rules is that you can choose whether you want to minimise Type 1 or 2 errors.

3. We are fairly contemptuous of the J17 and Mirage package in Punjab. What if their mission was to ensure that Indian Mirage CAP was occupied and could not support the Su30s?

This is hindsight capital, but it does seem fair to say that the PAF created a set up they wanted though the end result was not to their liking due to the lone Su30s aggression and the Bisons joining the fight.

Could we have created a set up that was not of their making?

Hats off to Sqdn Leader M Agarwal for her initiative and quick thinking.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Karan M »

SinghS wrote: I am curious to know, which asset did PAF deploy; that caused the intermittent communication jamming?


DA-20 biz jet with comms jammer.
We all know that SDR was ordered in the aftermath. Future war is going to be dictated by the levels of information fusion and secure data links with more than enough bandwidth. It will also be dictated by early intelligence and breaking the communication chain.
Wasn't ordered in the aftermath. Deal signed at Aero India. Just delayed because of UPA shenanigans and funding issues thereafter even during NDA 1. Rafale, pensions.
If we look at the course of events, following stands out: the air-warriors, battle managers and controllers were simply the best. The planners were lethargic. The MOD- less said, the better. Dharmics have a tradition of saving the day by individual brilliance, whereas higher management is always caught pants down. We lacked enough surveillance of paki landmass, advance intelligence and planning for aftermath, once we bombed Pakis.
We were prepared, the Su30s and Mirages were a tripwire. Couldn't keep too many assets in the air. Uses up airframe, weapons hours.
What is bothering me are: did we not know in advance that they have something with which they could jam us? Why did we not take countermeasures? Why did we not get advance information of such a massed attack taking place with the help of AWACS & jammers; when we were sure that they would now react?
We did, hence long delayed procurement of SDR just prior to this event. We figured out the mass attack as it developed, hence multiple fighters were scrambled. MiG21s reached first. Rest were in AFB behind to protect them from PAF missile strike. Budgetary issues meant we didn't have enough HAS to house large fighters in AFB close to Pak border. They were cleared in late 2018. Construction in progress by 2019. They had a very short window to attack as just after the Bisons came in, shortly later more MiG-29s and Flankers arrived.
If a country with a begging bowl and no tech base can do this to IAF, even when the IAF knew that a retaliation is coming and was on a war alert; surely China can give us much much more trouble.
They created a localised superiority and sought to exploit it. Yet, 20+ to 4, and no kills, no accurate hits on any target because of Su30, Bison, Mirage interference and faulty targeting data in the PGMs. Agree though, it could have gone far worse but for pilot skill and effective IACCS, and China will be a far more dangerous opponent. So no room for complacency.
What stood out is that the top brass and MOD is still in fortress war mindset. Pakis were almost about to wipe one such fortress with their LGB. S-400 and radar networks are not going to bring us anything, if we don't back them up with early information, continuous surveillance and extra long range strike inside enemy landmass and on their data network. With fortress warfare, once a breach is opened by the enemy, all other strategies are going to fall like a pack of cards.
Am not sure you are considering how layered defenses work. PAF even if it has launched a successful strike would have been subject to massive retaliation. They were very very risk averse.

S-400 and our radar networks give us reach far deeper into PAF then they have into ours. Only when terrain supports them, can they seek parity.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Karan M »

ShivS wrote:@Karan

Thanks for that reply - it’s a great summary.

In my mind the open questions really revolve around the period before the close happened.

1. How could the PAF predict the AWACS going off station? Balakote was 2 days prior, not enough time to establish a pattern unless the AWACS is airborne every day.


They would have been monitoring our platforms and it may have been pure luck they caught us in between asset movement. A 20+ aircraft flotilla is sufficient to take on a handful of fighters, AWACS or not. Plus in our case IACCS functioned as intended and even if AWACS coverage was disturbed, we could keep track of their antics except if they flew really low.
2. The NOC/IACCS, had to take active decisions- this is really hard, there is stress and confusion. I hope we were at the highest peacetime alert status. In that case shouldn’t a rules based approach mandate that if 24 PAF fighters are getting airborne, we need more than 4 birds in the air for CAP.
They were already scrambled and were on the way. But getting there took time during which time the fight was already over.
Between Ambala, Halwara and Hoshiarpur we have our choice of Su30, Mig29 and Mirages. Should we have scrambled more aircraft, and quicker.
That's precisely where they scrambled the very platforms you've mentioned. Ultimately, we needed more aircraft (an issue still not fixed) and sited closer (fixed to a degree).
The value of rules is that you can choose whether you want to minimise Type 1 or 2 errors.

3. We are fairly contemptuous of the J17 and Mirage package in Punjab. What if their mission was to ensure that Indian Mirage CAP was occupied and could not support the Su30s?
The JF17s were escorting the Mirages and also had REK (glide bombs), whereas the Mirages had manually guided in /EO terminal glide bombs. Due to fighter interference and also faulty elevation data, they ended up going haywire.
This is hindsight capital, but it does seem fair to say that the PAF created a set up they wanted though the end result was not to their liking due to the lone Su30s aggression and the Bisons joining the fight.
This is true.
Could we have created a set up that was not of their making?

Hats off to Sqdn Leader M Agarwal for her initiative and quick thinking.
Most definitely - but for that the IAF needs to look beyond the "best" imported airframe and settle for more, affordable Mk1As. Numbers matter and they have to be accomplished within the constraints of our budget. Hopefully if not the Mk1A, they at least pick up enough MWFs, and GOI supports more Rafales, AMCA as well. Numbers matter! Ditto for AAMs and PGMs, need to stock up beyond moderate levels.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by SinghS »

Karan M wrote:
Am not sure you are considering how layered defenses work. PAF even if it has launched a successful strike would have been subject to massive retaliation. They were very very risk averse.

S-400 and our radar networks give us reach far deeper into PAF then they have into ours. Only when terrain supports them, can they seek parity.
Not true vis-à-vis China. The only drawback China got is a far more longer flight time and thus more chances for early warning. But, they are going to punch through the defensive network using cheap drones.


The uniqueness of modern A2A warfare is that whoever dominates the communication & intelligence chain is wins. Better trained manpower doesn't matter as they don't get any chance to fire back. Their flight time goes in just saving their precious a*s. Its simple...look first and shoot first. This is evident since the gulf war. This short encounter with Pakis also emphasized it.

As you have beautifully summed up that we need local numbers, the defensive mindset of IAF won't work out. What are we doing to increase the squadron strength than waiting for Rafale and 114MMRCA? Where is dedicated jammer in IAF planning today, even after having bore the brunt...36 SPECTRA against a dedicated jammer??

If the IAF top brass, MOD, Politicos & Baboonz wash all their sins by hiding behind Abhinandan's bravery and don't change their ways, how many more Abhinandans would have to fight with a hand tied behind?
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Larry Walker »

Something was seriously off with Paki mindset on 27-Feb. So many assets up in the air to target a Brigade headquarter ? I wonder what would be their strategy be if IAF launched a retaliation attack just afterwards ?? No wonder the tanks hiding in civilian areas had to go mobile to avoid being sitting ducks (they didnt feel secure even hiding amongst civilian buildings ??)
The only factor that saved Paki asses that day was capture of Abhinandan - else Pakis would have probably witnessed a mini shock-and-awe. For all their fake bravado and chai taunts - simple question is why they closed their entire airspace for months over all of Pakistan on the east while air traffic was normal in India. SImple answer is they are not confident on PAF to protect Paki skies and any IAF attack would have involved retaliation by SAM batteries.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by ShivS »

@KaranM

One day I must buy you a beer for bringing indigenisation here :)

Too much luck? One window of 30 to 60 min and the PAF nails that - I would question opsec

On airframe life and all that - here are some numbers - on any given day the IAF should have over 200 Su30s, Mirage 2000s and Mig29s available. In a given week they would do over 500 training sorties- so scrambling 4-6 fighters for a threat in a high level of alert situation is not material.

Just to give you some color- GaganShakti involved nearly 700fighter sorties a day for 14 days.

The IACCS took 5-10 min too long to scramble assets from forward airbases.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Larry Walker »

I think one aspect to be considered is that it was still 'peace time' and as such IAF cannot attack PAF till they actually cross into our air space. And from what I recollect PAF launched standoff from their own airspace. Probably we were being too dharmic and only swung into aggression when PAF launched standoff. Possibly next time India will declare a NFZ for Pakistan around the border to avoid this confusion.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Karan M »

SinghS wrote:
Karan M wrote:
Am not sure you are considering how layered defenses work. PAF even if it has launched a successful strike would have been subject to massive retaliation. They were very very risk averse.

S-400 and our radar networks give us reach far deeper into PAF then they have into ours. Only when terrain supports them, can they seek parity.
Not true vis-à-vis China. The only drawback China got is a far more longer flight time and thus more chances for early warning. But, they are going to punch through the defensive network using cheap drones.
That is not accurate at all. The kind of long range drones that are needed to punch through layered defenses, sited deeper in India are neither cheap nor are they invisible. Our layered defenses can and will detect these drones provided they have the right kit. The issue is not of detection and engagement per se, but of cost effective engagement. That's the part where we still need to focus on. We need fast firing AAA guns with proximity fused ammo in plenty, to back up the SAMs.
The uniqueness of modern A2A warfare is that whoever dominates the communication & intelligence chain is wins. Better trained manpower doesn't matter as they don't get any chance to fire back. Their flight time goes in just saving their precious a*s. Its simple...look first and shoot first. This is evident since the gulf war. This short encounter with Pakis also emphasized it.
Thing is technology alone is not the decider. It can provide the true edge, provided only if it is combined with training and tactics. If one side has better technology but the other side has better training and tactics, the latter can and will nullify the technology advantage.

During the short encounter with Pakistanis, in fact, it was the IAF's superior training and tactical employment of airpower that allowed them to stand up to overwhelming numbers and got them a kill at parity. If the PAF had equivalent training and superior technology, they would have closed in and scored overwhelming success.
As you have beautifully summed up that we need local numbers, the defensive mindset of IAF won't work out. What are we doing to increase the squadron strength than waiting for Rafale and 114MMRCA? Where is dedicated jammer in IAF planning today, even after having bore the brunt...36 SPECTRA against a dedicated jammer??
At this point please look up more on the IAF's doctrine, its mindset and its equipment profile.

FYI - the IAF is a totally offensive force and has a variety of EW gear, in service to provide a range of EW options for its fighters - escort and self protection both! The Spectra is merely a self-protection suite. The Jaguars, the Mirages, the MiGs, the Su-30s, the Tejas - all have different classes of eqpt available of different kinds.

The IAF is asking for the MRFA to increase its offensive punch. Even if it does not work out, at ~30 squadrons, the IAF is almost all multi-role bar the Jaguars. It will add another 2 squadrons of MiG-29s and Su-30s at the minimum.

Why are you comparing a communications jammer to Spectra to begin with? And using bizjets for jamming is fundamentally risky. The PAF merely has two. It took the risk under the assumption IAF wouldnt target them. In a full scale conflict this is a very risky proposition.
If the IAF top brass, MOD, Politicos & Baboonz wash all their sins by hiding behind Abhinandan's bravery and don't change their ways, how many more Abhinandans would have to fight with a hand tied behind?
Abhinandan didnt fight with a hand tied behind. IMHO you are ignoring the context. The fact is the Balakot strike was done under a strict SOP that we wanted to hit a target in Pak and evaluate Paks redlines without provoking an all out conflict. We achieved that. Any errors that we saw in our SOPs that Pak exploited were fixed.

Unfortunately, with our current budget issues - we cannot just go for a mass aircraft procurement program to fix all the glaring gaps in our orbat overnight. That can only happen with the Tejas. But we have revamped our ADGES significantly. That will definitely have an impact vs PAF and PLAAF in the coming years and offset some of the AD capability gaps due to lower airframe numbers.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Karan M »

ShivS wrote:@KaranM

One day I must buy you a beer for bringing indigenisation here :)

Too much luck? One window of 30 to 60 min and the PAF nails that - I would question opsec

On airframe life and all that - here are some numbers - on any given day the IAF should have over 200 Su30s, Mirage 2000s and Mig29s available. In a given week they would do over 500 training sorties- so scrambling 4-6 fighters for a threat in a high level of alert situation is not material.
Please look deeper into what constitutes an actual operational mission as versus training flight hours. If you do, you'd realize the statements you are making about "scrambling 4-6 fighters for a threat in a high level of alert situation not being material" are misplaced. I can't be more explicit than that.
Just to give you some color- GaganShakti involved nearly 700fighter sorties a day for 14 days.
Yes, that's a peacetime exercise run under specific conditions. Actually, the number of sorties was far higher than 700.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 790234.cms
Around 1700 sorties per day.
The IACCS took 5-10 min too long to scramble assets from forward airbases.
The IACCS detected the package at around 9:40 am. The scramble was ordered based upon when we were sure they were up for hostile action. The same terrain issues that prevented the PAF from detecting us getting our MiGS airborne came into play against us too. With limited number of AEW&C available, we can't look deep into Pak at low level 24/7.

During routine peacetime missions, its also common for both sides to deliberately try and decoy the other side to expend scarce airframe hours. These grey zone tactics are used by the PLAAF against the Taiwanese and Japanese too. Ultimately, the advent of LRSAMs will help us in this regard but fixed defenses are always vulnerable, but at least their flight profiles at medium and high alt will be severely curtailed.

The best option is for GOI to accelerate the procurement of the 2 Phalcons, get Embraer off the blacklist and get the 3rd aircraft to the IAF as well, while it awaits its 6 Netra Mk2.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Karan M »

Larry Walker wrote:Something was seriously off with Paki mindset on 27-Feb. So many assets up in the air to target a Brigade headquarter ? I wonder what would be their strategy be if IAF launched a retaliation attack just afterwards ?? No wonder the tanks hiding in civilian areas had to go mobile to avoid being sitting ducks (they didnt feel secure even hiding amongst civilian buildings ??)
The only factor that saved Paki asses that day was capture of Abhinandan - else Pakis would have probably witnessed a mini shock-and-awe. For all their fake bravado and chai taunts - simple question is why they closed their entire airspace for months over all of Pakistan on the east while air traffic was normal in India. SImple answer is they are not confident on PAF to protect Paki skies and any IAF attack would have involved retaliation by SAM batteries.
You are on the dot that Abhi's loss changed the entire nature of the conflict. Won't be the case in an all-out conflict though.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Haridas »

Aditya_V wrote:They claim to but Group Captain Abhinandan citation and Vir Chakra ceremony clearly state he communicated to other IAF fighters and GCR regarding PAF ambush positions. PAF had to state the total jamming story as they could not say he came there and took down a F16
Does enemy use of jammer prevent communication with other fighters and ground controllers from takeoff to landing??

If so then I am enlightened today.

I should also abandon faith in radar equation (relevant for communication but using second power not fourth) and burnthrough range.

Abhinandan using R/T is being pedded as absence of use of jammer by enemy is IMO asinine.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Aditya_V »

I was referring to Paki statements that Abhinandan was clueless out of touch with IAF GCR and blundered into POK, that is the context of the jamming being talked about with respect to this particular incident.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by basant »

ShivS wrote:@KaranM

One day I must buy you a beer for bringing indigenisation here :)

Too much luck? One window of 30 to 60 min and the PAF nails that - I would question opsec
Based on tweets of some of the OSINT handles after Balakot, several times it was said that almost all of PAF was flying. Must have been a hyperbole but my guess would be that they were waiting for an opportunity, and when they did find a window, they grabbed the initiative.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by eklavya »

I’m looking at this from the perspective of the PAF
- didn’t hit a single target, despite hugely outnumbering adversary and choosing the time and place of action i.e. military failure
- had no deterrent effect on adversary taking Balakot type action in the future; if anything, the reverse i.e. political failure
- lost an aircraft and two experienced pilots (to a mob on their own side; in future their pilots will take care to eject over India) i.e. morale failure
- exposed its capabilities and tactics to the adversary i.e. intelligence failure
- had its blatant falsehoods exposed, undermining whatever minimal credibility they imagined they had i.e. diplomatic failure

Hopefully PAF takes many such “initiatives” in the future.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Aditya_V »

That's why they closed their airspace for 4 months and reportedly there was a Farticide where a JF-17 was hit by their own SAM's.

I think Pakistan is probably obsessed with defeating India and we probably don't recognize their commitment to our destruction. So like any conspirator they are constantly planning Swift retreat type, Kargil type tactical Moves. on 27 Feb 19, how long was the PAF advantage for 5-8 minutes before more IAF aircraft joined the fray- but that is the mindset a quick action followed by international call for pause and Indian inaction.

This has probably been their experience , we never deny our losses and even if we try, Paki International supporters and Paki Assets in India will expose.

Notice how Americans have their personal in Sargodha and would have known in minutes, which F16, which pilots and would have even taken pics/ disposal of the F16 so that Pakis dont hand it to the Chinese's. But the entire Western world chooses to keep quiet, we probably have enough capability to have got mobile pics and videos from POK of both Balakot and F-16 falling and debris, plus we have the Pakistani desperate radio intercepts , we have kept a lot evidence under wraps.

Probably the international deal by which Group Captain was released.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by ShivS »

Most IAF personnel are highly confident we got the Viper. Some of these are very process oriented types as well.

Karan - we seem to be talking past each other, so last post - but keep the following in mind - on a good day the PAF has 230/240 aircraft available. Average in less than that. Of those - 4/5 squadrons are F7. Ex that type, these are quite a few less than 200 available - my estimate is 160/180.

24 aircraft is a large PAF force - around 15% or more of available fleet ex the F7s. In a high risk situation we should have reacted faster than we did - but even that is not my point.

In high risk situations rules are better than personal judgements. The IAF should have a standing rule to have matched the PAF air strength in a high alert set up, especially when no AWAC coverage was available and we were somewhat blind.

Second - the PAF gamed us far too well - they knew of the gap in AWACS coverage and games our reactions to some degree - opsec and less predictable responses would be a good idea.

Finally on the changes made - what if they don’t do a repeat of swift retort the next time :)

On what the PAF wanted to achieve - there are 2 broad options

1. Attack the army and cause as much damage as possible - brigade HQs etc.

2. The bombs were means to miss and the real target was a shoot down of a Su30. The Punjab operation was to keep the MIrages occupied while the Su 30s were pitted against 8 F16 in advantageous position - bad odds.

It’s just that they seem to have a made an assumption that the Bisons would not join the fight with F16s involved and had to react in an unplanned fashion when the four Bisons joined in.

Would we have gone to war if a Su30 was shot down?
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Karan M »

ShivS wrote:Most IAF personnel are highly confident we got the Viper. Some of these are very process oriented types as well.

Karan - we seem to be talking past each other, so last post - but keep the following in mind - on a good day the PAF has 230/240 aircraft available. Average in less than that. Of those - 4/5 squadrons are F7. Ex that type, these are quite a few less than 200 available - my estimate is 160/180.

24 aircraft is a large PAF force - around 15% or more of available fleet ex the F7s. In a high risk situation we should have reacted faster than we did - but even that is not my point.

In high risk situations rules are better than personal judgements. The IAF should have a standing rule to have matched the PAF air strength in a high alert set up, especially when no AWAC coverage was available and we were somewhat blind.
Its incorrect that we did not have an AWACS coverage. There was an AWACS on station and at best, what seems to have occurred is there was a changeover of assets. Point is the IAF played the game per its own calculus - which is classified. We dont know what that aspect was/is. There have been reports suggesting the IAF wanted the PAF to commit deeper into a strike hence they deployed tripwire forces. The PAF was also risk averse. They mostly stayed on their side of the border and took potshots. The thing that "failed" was our inability to revisit old SOPs that precluded the easy availability of BVR weaponry on both sides. Also, that at the time, we lacked HAS closer to the border to keep many larger fighters on station.
Second - the PAF gamed us far too well - they knew of the gap in AWACS coverage and games our reactions to some degree - opsec and less predictable responses would be a good idea.
Could be - but we don't know that for sure.
Finally on the changes made - what if they don’t do a repeat of swift retort the next time :)
They won't. They will try something else, but then that's the nature of the beast. However, till we get sufficient AEW&CS, the low level approach is the only one left to them as are using drones in number. Even while ineffective, expensive, losing them in number for a big ticket strike is still a PR victory.
On what the PAF wanted to achieve - there are 2 broad options

1. Attack the army and cause as much damage as possible - brigade HQs etc.

2. The bombs were means to miss and the real target was a shoot down of a Su30. The Punjab operation was to keep the MIrages occupied while the Su 30s were pitted against 8 F16 in advantageous position - bad odds.

It’s just that they seem to have a made an assumption that the Bisons would not join the fight with F16s involved and had to react in an unplanned fashion when the four Bisons joined in.
I would question the assumption that they didnt expect the Bisons wouldn't join in. They of course knew what kind of fighters we usually keep on QRA and anticipated significant opposition across the IAF fleet. That's why so many fighters were sent in the strike package. It's just that they couldn't predict when the Bison's came in, because of the terrain masking.

Also, its more likely that their strike, even token one, was messed up more because the IAF interceptors ran interference and also, they entered faulty digital elevation model data in their PGM kits, which is what the IAF surmised. Ergo, most of their REK, H-4s ended up ditched, went awry. Older generation units (H-4) susceptible to fighter interference, and REKs - poorly programmed by PAF.
Would we have gone to war if a Su30 was shot down?
Most probably yes, in the sense that counter-strikes on the PAF would have been green-lit. The political fall-out would have been severe otherwise.
CAS rtd BS Dhanoa notes a Su-30 strike package was ready to retaliate at PA Brigade HQ if the strikes had gone through. Given the depth of planning involved, it seems quite likely the IAF was willing to go all the way, and had factored in a variety of scenarios.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by S_Madhukar »

Bakis like Daesh are always looking for the next propaganda picture or video that they can use to rouse their masses. I hope IAF is exercising for such media events as well as exercising their formations
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Ankit Desai »

Karan M wrote: Its incorrect that we did not have an AWACS coverage. There was an AWACS on station and at best, what seems to have occurred is there was a changeover of assets. Point is the IAF played the game per its own calculus - which is classified. We dont know what that aspect was/is. There have been reports suggesting the IAF wanted the PAF to commit deeper into a strike hence they deployed tripwire forces. The PAF was also risk averse. They mostly stayed on their side of the border and took potshots. The thing that "failed" was our inability to revisit old SOPs that precluded the easy availability of BVR weaponry on both sides. Also, that at the time, we lacked HAS closer to the border to keep many larger fighters on station.
The highlighted red was the only reason PAF could do what they did. Say the IAF guy was in operation on the day. He said IAF will visit SOPs in the same interview.

Karan covered other things well. I will be just repeating,

1. IAF AWACS in coverage that is why Abhi and co. went in action
2. IAF tried to draw PAF fighters deep that is why Su-30s played cold
3. As far PAF committing large numbers, they always did, 1971, 1965. After balakot, they have to commit large number to counter Su-30s.
4. Personally I think they never had intention to cross IB/LoC and they were playing for Lahore gallery that is why Brigade HQ was target.
5. They were so scare dumb that F-16 having better BVR run away seeing Mig-21 ! Remember Abhi's wingman came out without scratch while Su-30s were away more east.

-Ankit
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by nachiket »

The fact remains that considering the length of the border between India and pak and the terrain in Kashmir combined with the consequent lack of airfields, the attacker always starts with a huge advantage in any scenario where there is no hot war on. The attacker will always be able to keep the defender guessing about where the real attack will come from using decoy packages and be able to create a temporary but significant numerical superiority in a localized area. There is nothing the defender can do about this beyond a point but to try and detect the real axis of attack quickly and react in a fast but coordinated manner. This reaction is what the IAF did correctly on Feb 27 and what the Pakis failed at utterly on Feb 26 when they weren't able to intercept the Mirages despite them entering Paki airspace and bombing a target in a province which technically doesn't even have a border with India (KPK).

The "media perception battle" and twitter bravado aside, the PAF knows very well what the situation really is and what would happen to them if they repeat such a performance during an actual conflict. And this is leaving aside the loss of the F-16. If they didn't have to maintain the outward appearance of H&D being intact some heads would have rolled in the PAF middle-upper echelons.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Cain Marko »

^It is precisely this situation that makes the s400 so valuable.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by anupmisra »

https://idrw.org/us-airmen-reward-confi ... historian/

Tom Cooper's report. For legal reasons, I can not copy and paste the headline or the article here.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by basant »

anupmisra wrote:https://idrw.org/us-airmen-reward-confi ... historian/

Tom Cooper's report. For legal reasons, I can not copy and paste the headline or the article here.
To compete the picture: Luke Airman recieves service-level award for security of PAF F-16 technology
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by MeshaVishwas »

Reading Al Baki papers once in a while gives a good reward!
सत्यमेव जयते
Lecturer moves LHC against conviction over leaked call to PAF pilot - Yawn
ISLAMABAD: A civilian lecturer of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has petitioned before the Lahore High Court (LHC), Rawalpindi bench, to set aside his conviction over a leaked call with a pilot — one of his former students — in which he congratulated him for shooting down the Indian fighter plane flown by Abhinandan Varthaman.

Indian Air Force pilot Varthaman, who was captured by Pakistan in 2019 after his MiG-21 Bison aircraft was shot down by a PAF jet, was recently awarded the Vir Cha­kra — the third-highest wartime gallantry award after Param Vir Chakra and Maha Vir Chakra — by the Indian government.

The petitioner, Hafiz Farooq Ahmed Khan who was working at PAF College Lower Topa, Murree, faced court martial after his telephonic conversation with the PAF pilot went viral on social media.

As per details of the case, Khan was recruited as a civilian lecturer in PAF College in June 1999 through the Federal Public Service Commission (FPSC).

He was charged and subsequently convicted by the Court Martial under the provisions of the Official Secrets Act, 1923.

In his petition, Mr Khan stated that on the evening of Feb 27, 2019, he and his wife were watching television at his official residence in PAF College, Lower Topa.

While watching the news about two Indian aircraft being shot down by the PAF during a standoff between the two countries, Mr Khan called up his old student, who was an air force fighter pilot, to congratulate him, the petition added.

It stated that the call lasted two minutes and 27 seconds, during which Mr Khan exchanged congratulatory remarks with the pilot, who stated on his own, without being questioned by the petitioner, that whatever was being shown on media was not even 30pc and that there had been 350 casualties on ground.


The petition then explained how the call got leaked and went viral on social media.

Mr Khan admitted in the plea that he had forwarded the same call to 61 of his relatives and friends out of sheer excitement and pride and to highlight PAF spirit. “Ultimately, the said call went viral on social media and was noticed/detected by the Air Intelligence Agency of PAF,” he said.

The teacher was held on July 8, 2019 and was court-martialled on four charges under Section 71 of the PAF Act, 1953. He was accused of committing an offence for a purpose prejudicial to the safety or interest of the State, while having conversation…recorded information about PAF Air Operations, which might directly or indirectly be useful to an enemy, “unauthorised possession of document/information”, “failed to take reasonable care of the same resulting into leakage of the said information on social media” and unauthorised dissemination of air operations to over 60 contacts.

During the court martial proceedings, Khan pleaded “not guilty” following which the prosecution recorded the evidence of 11 witnesses and presented certain documents while in his defence the teacher produced his wife and four other witnesses.

Khan was sentenced to rigorous imprisonment of two years and eight months vide by the Field General Court Martial. The base commander remitted the sentence by eight months and reduced it to 24 months.

The petitioner then filed an appeal before the PAF Appellate Tribunal that further remitted the sentence by one year and two months.

He contended that since there was no alternative forum available for review, the LHC could invoke the constitutional jurisdiction of Article 199 to administer justice.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1663307/lectu ... -paf-pilot

Next report is one where slimy Pakis "Sar tan se juda" of the Doosra banda.InshaGanesha.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Karan M »

Solid find Mesha Vishwas, make sure you save a copy of the article and share it heavily on social media. 8)
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by basant »

Excellent find, MeshaVishwas :D
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by kit »

Karan M wrote:
ShivS wrote:@Karan

Thanks for that reply - it’s a great summary.

In my mind the open questions really revolve around the period before the close happened.

1. How could the PAF predict the AWACS going off station? Balakote was 2 days prior, not enough time to establish a pattern unless the AWACS is airborne every day.


They would have been monitoring our platforms and it may have been pure luck they caught us in between asset movement. A 20+ aircraft flotilla is sufficient to take on a handful of fighters, AWACS or not. Plus .
[/quote]

in the last war they had spies on the ground near indian bases..wont discount that possibility
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Aditya_V »

Excellent article by Mesha Vishwas, shows the PAF came with clear intent to cause huge Indian Army casualties and not miss, why? Cause not only was there a non military strike at Balakot, they must have lost a lot military casualties on 26 Feb 19, including whatever we hit at Muzaffarabad and Chakoti.

Show why Swift retreat failed in its objectives of a Su 30 down and causing Indian Army casualties. They lost a F16 in the process the only silver lining was the capture of IAF pilot and Mig 21 Bison debris which they played for their audience. Like after 65 , the paki public and supporters worldwide think they have won till they rudely awakened like in 1971.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Aditya G »

PAF came out in positive light on two aspects:

1. Ability to orchestrate large force engagement on short notice - obviously a war gamed and planned operation.

2. Showcase ability to plan for counter attack to a IAF strike operation on terror camps - they correctly predicted it was going to happen one day or another.

What really concerns me is their willingness to attack official Indian Army target(s). All this talk of them deliberately missing is all balderdash as it was IAF's solid defence by Mirages & Su-30s and Wg Cdr Varthaman's aggression that caused them to miss. But this leaves the question ... "what were they even thinking?". Why risk war for a clean strike on non-state actors? What does this speak of their thought process?
Larry Walker wrote:Something was seriously off with Paki mindset on 27-Feb. So many assets up in the air to target a Brigade headquarter ? I wonder what would be their strategy be if IAF launched a retaliation attack just afterwards ?? No wonder the tanks hiding in civilian areas had to go mobile to avoid being sitting ducks (they didnt feel secure even hiding amongst civilian buildings ??)
The only factor that saved Paki asses that day was capture of Abhinandan - else Pakis would have probably witnessed a mini shock-and-awe. For all their fake bravado and chai taunts - simple question is why they closed their entire airspace for months over all of Pakistan on the east while air traffic was normal in India. SImple answer is they are not confident on PAF to protect Paki skies and any IAF attack would have involved retaliation by SAM batteries.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Aditya_V »

Aditya G wrote:PAF came out in positive light on two aspects:

1. Ability to orchestrate large force engagement on short notice - obviously a war gamed and planned operation.

2. Showcase ability to plan for counter attack to a IAF strike operation on terror camps - they correctly predicted it was going to happen one day or another.

What really concerns me is their willingness to attack official Indian Army target(s). All this talk of them deliberately missing is all balderdash as it was IAF's solid defence by Mirages & Su-30s and Wg Cdr Varthaman's aggression that caused them to miss. But this leaves the question ... "what were they even thinking?". Why risk war for a clean strike on non-state actors? What does this speak of their thought process?

[e]
If you remember on 26-Feb-19, until 12 noon when the MEA Declared it as a "NON " Miltary strike, multple sources in MOD- IAF said 3 targets hit -Balakot Kaigan Gully- Pig Sty, Muzaffarbad and Chakoti, I think the IAF had to break the door by taking out a PAF SAM site before going in to Balakot.

Highly likely the PAF not PA took some casualties in that strike, we needed to teach them a tough lesson, so it was this which made them respond. Just loose of canon fodder- they would have shrugged it off like Nov 2016 surgical strikes.

P.S I have not seen Massod Azhar or heard much of him since 26-Feb-19. And some serving retired PA ISI officers could have died at Balakot.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Aditya G »

Aditya_V wrote:
Aditya G wrote:PAF came out in positive light on two aspects:

1. Ability to orchestrate large force engagement on short notice - obviously a war gamed and planned operation.

2. Showcase ability to plan for counter attack to a IAF strike operation on terror camps - they correctly predicted it was going to happen one day or another.

What really concerns me is their willingness to attack official Indian Army target(s). All this talk of them deliberately missing is all balderdash as it was IAF's solid defence by Mirages & Su-30s and Wg Cdr Varthaman's aggression that caused them to miss. But this leaves the question ... "what were they even thinking?". Why risk war for a clean strike on non-state actors? What does this speak of their thought process?

[e]
If you remember on 26-Feb-19, until 12 noon when the MEA Declared it as a "NON " Miltary strike, multple sources in MOD- IAF said 3 targets hit -Balakot Kaigan Gully- Pig Sty, Muzaffarbad and Chakoti, I think the IAF had to break the door by taking out a PAF SAM site before going in to Balakot.

Highly likely the PAF not PA took some casualties in that strike, we needed to teach them a tough lesson, so it was this which made them respond. Just loose of canon fodder- they would have shrugged it off like Nov 2016 surgical strikes.

P.S I have not seen Massod Azhar or heard much of him since 26-Feb-19. And some serving retired PA ISI officers could have died at Balakot.
Calling it "non military" strike to soften the blow was well thought. However I also believe that the government had no plans to reveal the strike at all - judging by the poor media management on 26th Feb. Compare this to DGMO press interaction post 2016 Surgical Strike - which was held in the morning with a well drafted statement.

My view is that our establishment did not expect Pakistanis (i.e. ISPR) to announce the strikes via twitter at 5am in the morning - the resultant frenzy on both sides of the border would have forced PAF to act or risk a major H&D loss.

Another approach could have been to deny the strike through unofficial sources, wait for things to cool down and then announce. Or confuse matters by stating it was the USAF which struck for example
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/hukum2082/status/14 ... 38882?s=20 ---> Call recording of Hafiz Farooq Ahmed Khan (Lecturer at PAF College Lower Topa) & Squadron Leader Hassan Mehmood Siddiqui (PAF) after an aerial engagement between IAF and PAF on 27th Feb 2019.

https://soundcloud.com/majors-squad-791 ... ddiqui-mp3

https://twitter.com/hukum2082/status/14 ... 33316?s=20 ---> But why did Squadron Leader Siddiqui claim 350 Indian casualties? Largely because the IAF air strikes on Jaba Top accounted for 300+ JeM Militants and the PAF was looking at equivalence in revenge.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Rakesh »

The audio recording in the above post is really interesting, because it clearly displays the lies that the PAF lives in.

1) If 350 Indian casualties were indeed there, then why did Air Marshal Haseeb Paracha (right now, the VCAS of the PAF) state that the PAF was asked to *deliberately* miss? So if the PAF missed, how did 350 Indian soldiers die? See this PowerPoint presentation from Air Marshal Paracha (he clearly states that the pilot guided the weapon to a inhabited area) ---> https://twitter.com/hukum2082/status/14 ... 81123?s=20

2) If 350 Indian casualties were indeed there, where are the names of these Indian soldiers? The units they belonged to? How did the Govt of India hide such a large kill?

2) If 350 Indian casualties were indeed there, why was the PAF Lecturer arrested for violating Section 71 of the PAF Act, 1953? They should be celebrating, just like they are celebrating the loss of the MiG-21 and the Su-30MKI.

Lecturer moves LHC against conviction over leaked call to PAF pilot
https://www.dawn.com/news/1663307/lectu ... -paf-pilot
12 Dec 2021
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Rakesh »

What ultimately foiled the PAF's F-16s on that fateful day :mrgreen: :lol:

https://twitter.com/FrontierVedette/sta ... 14528?s=20 ---> Growler of the East?

With a combination of SAP-518 Self Protection Jammer (SPJ) and SAP-14 Electronic Attack Pod (EAP) a Su-30MKI can neutralize a variety of hostile air defence systems, including radar systems operating in X/L/S bandwidths as well as Ku-band missile seekers.

Image
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Rakesh »

I was going to post these tweets in the IAF thread, but thought it would be better here.

https://twitter.com/lca_tejas_/status/1 ... 86978?s=20 ---> Remember the Name - The Balakot Boy.

Image

https://twitter.com/joe_sameer/status/1 ... 36065?s=20 - Mirage 2000I/TI patch :)

Image
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Manish_P »

Retd. Air Marshal Anil Chopra, an ex-Vajra boy himself, called the raiders - 'The Balakot Dozen', shortly after the news of the raid broke out.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Rishirishi »

Lecturer moves LHC against conviction over leaked call to PAF pilot
https://www.dawn.com/news/1663307/lectu ... -paf-pilot
12 Dec 2021
What do we know how much truth there is in the PAF Pilot. The lecturer committed a grave breach of security rule, by sharing such phone call.

The Balakot strike had one objective, which was to call off the TSP nuke bluff. Weather 350 or 0 jehadis got killed does not really mater. By retaliating India told the Pakistanis that they would face an all out war, if they took the took it too far. Perhaps this was an important message to send, prior to the abolition of 370 in JK.

India knew well that that PAF would have to retaliate. PAF flew up half its operational fleet. IAF could have matched the PAF numbers, but that had just prolonged the thing. A mild retaliation, without casualties, was acceptable for India. Because India had already got what it wanted.

Pakistanis in my opinion could have used this opportunity better. Had they dropped 300KG of roses in stead, it would have made huge headlines world over and it would have been great PR. Thank god TSP's are so stupid. They seem to win many battles, but always loose the war.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Roop »

Rishirishi wrote:Weather 350 or 0 jehadis got killed does not really mater.
FWIW this fellow (the PAF pilot) is not saying that 350 jihadis were killed in Balakot, he is claiming that the PAF strike on Feb. 27 caused 350 Indian Army deaths. Of course his claim is bullcr@p.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Aditya_V »

Roop wrote:
Rishirishi wrote:Weather 350 or 0 jehadis got killed does not really mater.
FWIW this fellow (the PAF pilot) is not saying that 350 jihadis were killed in Balakot, he is claiming that the PAF strike on Feb. 27 caused 350 Indian Army deaths. Of course his claim is bullcr@p.
But it means 2 things, PAF came with intent to get IAF Su 30s and lots of Indian Army casualties, which means Swift Retreat was a total flop and why such intent? Cause they must have suffered badly on 26 Feb 19. That's why Pakis want to keep a lid on things
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