MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

[nam]

I have a question - If it was rafale and not SU 30MKI and at 30 km from Solah, at a lower altitude - with it's meteor (and for sake of argument, it was not fired before at greater range), EW package, Agility, sensor fusion, could it have brought down the solah without being in considerable danger itself?

First, only IAF or WC Abhi can tell us, why he choose to use R73 over R77. My be the Mig21 radar was switched off and he was actually guided by the GC towards the target?

May be the F16 was sighted by him and decided to use the HMCS? So if it was Rafale instead of Mig21, we cannot say what would have happened. Chances are there may not have been a fight, as PAF would make deliberate efforts to stay clear of Rafale+Meteor combo..

Regarding the scenario you mentioned, Meteor is suppose to be powered while chasing target. Now it should be better than rocket powered, while chasing a target which is at higher altitude. However can it gurantee a kill? Personally I don't think so. It would be better, but not 100%.

[fanne]

sorry nam it is a rhetorical question (though I would like to know the answer). As of now we have 260 30mki and 0 rafale and in few years we will have 36 rafale and nearly 300 30mki. Unlike other planes in IAF, for 30mki we have deep tot, deeper in the realm of software (the mission computer is Indian, so is radar computer etc.). It was the best fighter around year 2000 in the world, later to be overtaken by the likes of F-22, Rafale, EF etc. and matched by upgraded F teens. (The M2Ki on simulated BVR and WVR scored less than MKI - per media reports, and that's among the best that west has to offer on 4th gen fighter).
With time that edge has eroded and it is within our capability (with or without Russian help) to restore that edge. It still has the best range, best TWR, best weapon capacity, staying power and radar. Where we can add - A meteor like missile (SFDR, but it does not has a sense of urgency, just like other projects. HAL will not produce any LCA through out the year and when nearing the FY end, it will pop out 10 in few months...why not have the same urgency through out), we can add a 120c like missile (our own Astra, here also we bumped the number from 50 to 200, but we need at least in 1000, to compensate for lesser pk), a EW gear (DARE one is not getting finished soon and though we have access to both Israel and Ru gears, we have not found anything). Some other items like towed decoys, digital radios, info fusion etc. this can be perhaps better than Rafale. Imagine 300 of these in our IAF!!

[Karan M]

The Amrams in particular. The Sukois were outgunned. It has been quoted by PM himself. If Abhi had been in a Rafael, the case would have been different. If IAF had had the 126 Rafaels, they were planning to get, TSP would not have dared to put on the show for their starved people.

The Aim120 was fired under 70KM. So it is not a case of being out-gunned, as both PAF & IAF were within their BVR ranges.

Not necessarily. Brochure ranges often don't depict reality in the case of missiles.

[Karan M]

sorry nam it is a rhetorical question (though I would like to know the answer). As of now we have 260 30mki and 0 rafale and in few years we will have 36 rafale and nearly 300 30mki. Unlike other planes in IAF, for 30mki we have deep tot, deeper in the realm of software (the mission computer is Indian, so is radar computer etc.). It was the best fighter around year 2000 in the world, later to be overtaken by the likes of F-22, Rafale, EF etc. and matched by upgraded F teens. (The M2Ki on simulated BVR and WVR scored less than MKI - per media reports, and that's among the best that west has to offer on 4th gen fighter).
With time that edge has eroded and it is within our capability (with or without Russian help) to restore that edge. It still has the best range, best TWR, best weapon capacity, staying power and radar. Where we can add - A meteor like missile (SFDR, but it does not has a sense of urgency, just like other projects. HAL will not produce any LCA through out the year and when nearing the FY end, it will pop out 10 in few months...why not have the same urgency through out), we can add a 120c like missile (our own Astra, here also we bumped the number from 50 to 200, but we need at least in 1000, to compensate for lesser pk), a EW gear (DARE one is not getting finished soon and though we have access to both Israel and Ru gears, we have not found anything). Some other items like towed decoys, digital radios, info fusion etc. this can be perhaps better than Rafale. Imagine 300 of these in our IAF!!

Might well be completely mistaken as clearly there is a "gag" order on sensitive programs in public. The DARE pod may well be at advanced stage or not, we dont know.

[chola]

The Amrams in particular. The Sukois were outgunned. It has been quoted by PM himself. If Abhi had been in a Rafael, the case would have been different. If IAF had had the 126 Rafaels, they were planning to get, TSP would not have dared to put on the show for their starved people.

The Aim120 was fired under 70KM. So it is not a case of being out-gunned, as both PAF & IAF were within their BVR ranges.

There were a lot of issues with the R-77. I wonder if Abhi and the IAF trusted the R-73 more.

[fanne]

I think more important at a range where I can either fire r-77 or r-73, I would any day prefer a r-73. It can be fired silently, without a radar lock, can be fired way off bore sight, is faster and need no further input from the firing plane...

[Haridas]

sorry nam it is a rhetorical question (though I would like to know the answer). As of now we have 260 30mki and 0 rafale and in few years we will have 36 rafale and nearly 300 30mki. Unlike other planes in IAF, for 30mki we have deep tot, deeper in the realm of software (the mission computer is Indian, so is radar computer etc.). It was the best fighter around year 2000 in the world, later to be overtaken by the likes of F-22, Rafale, EF etc. and matched by upgraded F teens. (The M2Ki on simulated BVR and WVR scored less than MKI - per media reports, and that's among the best that west has to offer on 4th gen fighter).
With time that edge has eroded and it is within our capability (with or without Russian help) to restore that edge. It still has the best range, best TWR, best weapon capacity, staying power and radar. Where we can add - A meteor like missile (SFDR, but it does not has a sense of urgency, just like other projects. HAL will not produce any LCA through out the year and when nearing the FY end, it will pop out 10 in few months...why not have the same urgency through out), we can add a 120c like missile (our own Astra, here also we bumped the number from 50 to 200, but we need at least in 1000, to compensate for lesser pk), a EW gear (DARE one is not getting finished soon and though we have access to both Israel and Ru gears, we have not found anything). Some other items like towed decoys, digital radios, info fusion etc. this can be perhaps better than Rafale. Imagine 300 of these in our IAF!!

on the dot saar.
I would instead argue for a longer range missile (250 km range) with bigger onboard radar (to greatly exceed guidence range and Pk due to MKI mother radar). Not seek a AIM120C++.
Quantum jump in missile range corresponding to its hefty platform size.

[Aditya_V]

I have a question - If it was rafale and not SU 30MKI and at 30 km from Solah, at a lower altitude - with it's meteor (and for sake of argument, it was not fired before at greater range), EW package, Agility, sensor fusion, could it have brought down the solah without being in considerable danger itself?

First, only IAF or WC Abhi can tell us, why he choose to use R73 over R77. My be the Mig21 radar was switched off and he was actually guided by the GC towards the target?

May be the F16 was sighted by him and decided to use the HMCS? So if it was Rafale instead of Mig21, we cannot say what would have happened. Chances are there may not have been a fight, as PAF would make deliberate efforts to stay clear of Rafale+Meteor combo..

Regarding the scenario you mentioned, Meteor is suppose to be powered while chasing target. Now it should be better than rocket powered, while chasing a target which is at higher altitude. However can it gurantee a kill? Personally I don't think so. It would be better, but not 100%.

True only IAF or Wc Abhi can tell us, but looking at IAF presentation and what was posted on forums, and 3 important videos taken at Charhoi (posted on Youtube and Pakis have deleted them - if click on them it will say you are not authorised to view), Thanamandi - F-16 Tadpole shaped loss and Mirpur where 1 Mig 21 Bison is going down another turns around in a North Easterly direction and exactly 1 minute late another aircraft comes from the West and fires a Missile.

The MIg 21 Bisons took off from Budgam Srinagar and closed in using full afterburners and closed in based on inputs of GCI and surprised the F-16s and got 1 - as the SAAB AEW detected these aircraft only when they crossed the PIR Panjal. The F-16 didnt have any RWR warning and this was a quick passive intercept using the full speed of the Mig 21 Bison on Afterburner.

The 2 F-16s targeted by the Wing Commander were part of 3 aircraft which released an LGB at Brigade HQ at Nowshera and thanks to providence a tree stood in the way. The F-16 which fired at MIg 21 Bison was probably westereds and was directed by the SAAB AEW.

After this my further speculation is WC and Wingman turned South westwards to get another F-16 and had lock on his 2nd R-73 when his aircraft was hit by the AMRAAM from probably Nouman Ali, then based on GCI inputs the MIG 21 Bison wing man turned around and the F-16 chased the aircraft till the LOC and fired the AMRAAM which fell in Reasi district of J&K.

[SRajesh]

First, only IAF or WC Abhi can tell us, why he choose to use R73 over R77. My be the Mig21 radar was switched off and he was actually guided by the GC towards the target?

May be the F16 was sighted by him and decided to use the HMCS? So if it was Rafale instead of Mig21, we cannot say what would have happened. Chances are there may not have been a fight, as PAF would make deliberate efforts to stay clear of Rafale+Meteor combo..

Regarding the scenario you mentioned, Meteor is suppose to be powered while chasing target. Now it should be better than rocket powered, while chasing a target which is at higher altitude. However can it gurantee a kill? Personally I don't think so. It would be better, but not 100%.

True only IAF or Wc Abhi can tell us, but looking at IAF presentation and what was posted on forums, and 3 important videos taken at Charhoi (posted on Youtube and Pakis have deleted them - if click on them it will say you are not authorised to view), Thanamandi - F-16 Tadpole shaped loss and Mirpur where 1 Mig 21 Bison is going down another turns around in a North Easterly direction and exactly 1 minute late another aircraft comes from the West and fires a Missile.

The MIg 21 Bisons took off from Budgam Srinagar and closed in using full afterburners and closed in based on inputs of GCI and surprised the F-16s and got 1 - as the SAAB AEW detected these aircraft only when they crossed the PIR Panjal. The F-16 didnt have any RWR warning and this was a quick passive intercept using the full speed of the Mig 21 Bison on Afterburner.

The 2 F-16s targeted by the Wing Commander were part of 3 aircraft which released an LGB at Brigade HQ at Nowshera and thanks to providence a tree stood in the way. The F-16 which fired at MIg 21 Bison was probably westereds and was directed by the SAAB AEW.

After this my further speculation is WC and Wingman turned South westwards to get another F-16 and had lock on his 2nd R-73 when his aircraft was hit by the AMRAAM from probably Nouman Ali, then based on GCI inputs the MIG 21 Bison wing man turned around and the F-16 chased the aircraft till the LOC and fired the AMRAAM which fell in Reasi district of J&K.

Now that the 'Ladaai ka Ardour' has cooled down, a noob pooch:
After the 'B' strike did the services underestimate the capapbility of PAF or were there serious short-comings in surveillance or deliberate attempt to let PAF come in!!
Which of the three or combination of them??

[hnair]

Karan M, in this BVR vs BVR missile discussions, the lacunae exhibited by our side's ADS in challenging these morons creeping towards LOC is getting drowned out. One of the big concerns raised by someone I talked to is "What the heck were the AD guys doing?". His point was it was not the WgCdr alone who should have been boldly challenging the pakis' bluff. Hopefully there is going to be some B8 solutions deployed in JK UT areas! That way, crossing LOC et al by IAF jocks wont matter.

Also talked to another guy who retired from AD artillery. Says that old staple of siachen photos, the ZU-23-twins derivatives are scary as hell in the mountains, due to bursts. Apparently he had to witness people around him die for no reason. They seem to be getting replaced. But the pakis seem to love it too and have a huge stock. Casual explanation is that some meesha-festooned jernail of theirs have been watching too many WW2 era ack-ack videos, but then caution says they might have slaved it to fire-control systems. If that is the case, they might have a dense anti-PGM solution (if they can keep all those barrels maintained!). Any insights into that aspect of theirs? Wiki lists 5000 (which if true is a huge maintanence nightmare!)

[tsarkar]

Now that the 'Ladaai ka Ardour' has cooled down, a noob pooch:
After the 'B' strike did the services underestimate the capapbility of PAF or were there serious short-comings in surveillance or deliberate attempt to let PAF come in!!
Which of the three or combination of them??

None. It was Bureaucracy.

The civilian and military bureaucracy thought by classifying Balakot as a strike against terror, Pakistan wont officially retaliate since Pakistan as a state was not attacked. They forgot the bigoted mind of a Pakistani that demands revenge irrespective of the consequence. Most MEA/MHA/MOD bureaucrats were doing Pappi Jhappi some years back.

There are agreements governing military flights at the LOC and the IAF/IA/IN follows SOPs based on these agreements.

Post Balakot, where India "broke" these agreements, the Indian civil and military bureaucracy saw Indian action as an exception and Pakistan would consider it the same. Except that Pakistan didnt.

The problem of any bureaucracy - civilian or military - is that they give themselves too much importance and assume everyone - including the enemy - obeys their thinking.

So pre Balakot SOP were not removed. Indian fighters could fire only if Pakistanis entered Indian Airspace. Indian fighters could not cross the LOC.

The Pakistanis fired AMRAAMs from their side of LOC and this situation was not covered in the SOP.

Which is why Mirages didnt fire their MICA, Su-30 their R-77, R-27. Which is also why the Su-30s and Mirage 2000 didnt cross the LOC. They aggressively maneuvered but never crossed the LOC

Abhinandan's wingman turned back before crossing the LOC. Wingmen never leave wingmen behind. Those in Bangalore driving to KIAL airport can see the Training Command Poster that says "Colleagues share lunch, Wingmen share Fate." Its sacrilege for wingmen to leave and if they do, they are ostracised in the closed knit fighter community. The ONLY reason he did so was following the SOP of not crossing LOC.

Only Abhinandan persisted and actually broke the then existing SOPs to engage the F-16s.

[tsarkar]

One of the big concerns raised by someone I talked to is "What the heck were the AD guys doing?".

AD stays in "hold" mode when own fighters and helicopters are in the air. SAM cannot distinguish between a MiG-21 Bison and F-16 dogfighting. The Patriot missile has had numerous friendly fire incidents. We also had a friendly fire incident wherein Spyder shot down Mi-17V5. The Israeli ship Hanit too had its AD system on hold because of Israeli aircraft nearby when the Hezbollah missile hit it.

[nam]

Karan M, in this BVR vs BVR missile discussions, the lacunae exhibited by our side's ADS in challenging these morons creeping towards LOC is getting drowned out. One of the big concerns raised by someone I talked to is "What the heck were the AD guys doing?". His point was it was not the WgCdr alone who should have been boldly challenging the pakis' bluff. Hopefully there is going to be some B8 solutions deployed in JK UT areas! That way, crossing LOC et al by IAF jocks wont matter.

Also talked to another guy who retired from AD artillery. Says that old staple of siachen photos, the ZU-23-twins derivatives are scary as hell in the mountains, due to bursts. Apparently he had to witness people around him die for no reason. They seem to be getting replaced. But the pakis seem to love it too and have a huge stock. Casual explanation is that some meesha-festooned jernail of theirs have been watching too many WW2 era ack-ack videos, but then caution says they might have slaved it to fire-control systems. If that is the case, they might have a dense anti-PGM solution (if they can keep all those barrels maintained!). Any insights into that aspect of theirs? Wiki lists 5000 (which if true is a huge maintanence nightmare!)

AD is poor on both side of LC. We don't have enough SAM, neither do Pak. This is only now changing with Akash, Barak8, S400.

If the Pak had good AD, they would be pants down on 26, when our Mirage went in and came unmolested. But then the "sanity of LC" is the biggest problem in this era of long range SAM and standoff PGM.

However SAM are very dangerous business, as we have seen with the shot down of Mi17.

[nam]

About the question, why we did not shoot down PAF jets, even if it required crossing LC. There are lot of practical questions, even if we ignore babus giving out orders.

How far in to PoK can the IAf jets go to get a hit? Should they hit SAM/AD positions if they are painted? How do we know IAF jets will not walk in to an ambush?

You cannot send 1 or 2 jets in to PoK, at a whim. It has to be properly supported. What if the pilot was shot down? We would have then provide air cover until the pilot is recovered. That is not a small thing.

It is for all practical purpose, a full fledged air invasion in to PoK.

There is a reason both IAF & PAF tried to stay on their side of LC. For both side getting inside a heavily defended airspace is... full fledged war.

[arvin]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikoyan-Gurevich_MiG-21

This wiki page on mig 21 also lists conflicts in which it was used. For India, only 1999 and 1971 hits are mentioned under operational history. No mention of abhinandan exploits or f16 shootdown of 2019. Can anyone update the wiki page based on data from discussion here.

[Aditya_V]

Now that the 'Ladaai ka Ardour' has cooled down, a noob pooch:
After the 'B' strike did the services underestimate the capapbility of PAF or were there serious short-comings in surveillance or deliberate attempt to let PAF come in!!
Which of the three or combination of them??

None. It was Bureaucracy.

The civilian and military bureaucracy thought by classifying Balakot as a strike against terror, Pakistan wont officially retaliate since Pakistan as a state was not attacked. They forgot the bigoted mind of a Pakistani that demands revenge irrespective of the consequence. Most MEA/MHA/MOD bureaucrats were doing Pappi Jhappi some years back.

There are agreements governing military flights at the LOC and the IAF/IA/IN follows SOPs based on these agreements.

Post Balakot, where India "broke" these agreements, the Indian civil and military bureaucracy saw Indian action as an exception and Pakistan would consider it the same. Except that Pakistan didnt.

The problem of any bureaucracy - civilian or military - is that they give themselves too much importance and assume everyone - including the enemy - obeys their thinking.

So pre Balakot SOP were not removed. Indian fighters could fire only if Pakistanis entered Indian Airspace. Indian fighters could not cross the LOC.

The Pakistanis fired AMRAAMs from their side of LOC and this situation was not covered in the SOP.

Which is why Mirages didnt fire their MICA, Su-30 their R-77, R-27. Which is also why the Su-30s and Mirage 2000 didnt cross the LOC. They aggressively maneuvered but never crossed the LOC

Abhinandan's wingman turned back before crossing the LOC. Wingmen never leave wingmen behind. Those in Bangalore driving to KIAL airport can see the Training Command Poster that says "Colleagues share lunch, Wingmen share Fate." Its sacrilege for wingmen to leave and if they do, they are ostracised in the closed knit fighter community. The ONLY reason he did so was following the SOP of not crossing LOC.

Only Abhinandan persisted and actually broke the then existing SOPs to engage the F-16s.

I dont think this is true- see the IAF presentation sir and Mirpur video where the Mig-21 is going down- in the IAF presentation both Alpha 1 and Alpha 2 had crossed the the LOC and both were across the LOC.

In the Mirpur video as 1 aircraft is going down another aircraft near it in 15-25 sec is turning in a North East direction and about 1 Minute later at 1:22 Sec another aircraft approaching West-South West comes an Launches a Missile.

I clearly believe WC and his Wingman both crossed the LOC and only after Abhi aircraft was hit going for the 2nd F-16 that his Wingman (probably on GCI orders) Turned back to come back across the LOC.

[srai]

^^^
It’s called Offensive Split maneuver. Wingman (MiG-21 Alpha-2) was the bait. F-16 (Alpha-3) fell for it and got shot down by WC Abhi (MiG-21 Alpha-1).

^^^


Main action occurred all within one minute (between 10:22 and 10:23)!

The above MiG-21s movement look like a classic offensive split maneuver.

[rohitvats]

Karan M, in this BVR vs BVR missile discussions, the lacunae exhibited by our side's ADS in challenging these morons creeping towards LOC is getting drowned out. One of the big concerns raised by someone I talked to is "What the heck were the AD guys doing?". His point was it was not the WgCdr alone who should have been boldly challenging the pakis' bluff. Hopefully there is going to be some B8 solutions deployed in JK UT areas! That way, crossing LOC et al by IAF jocks wont matter.

Million dollar question is - how could've AD Artillery intervened? Through what assets?

- Our longest range SAM as of now is Akash. Which in case of IAF is based in/around major air force bases. And the ones with the army are with Corps in plains.

- Even for Akash to make a difference, the battery would've had to be based bang on the LOC.

- Long story short - We simply don't have enough AD assets. And for the kind of deterrence you're talking about, we've ZERO assets.

TILL NOW.

This is where MR_SAM and S-400 become very critical.

For the first time, they give us tiered SAM based AD cover. With 70-100 km range, MR_SAM gives AD cover to a vast geography. And gives the flexibility to extends the SAM AD cover right up to border/LOC (if required).

Same goes for S-400. The mix of missiles gives allows us to provide AD cover in-depth. We can envision outer-bubble of S-400 (200 Km range), with inner bubble of MR_SAM and point defense by Akash and SPYDER/QR_SAM.

But gain, how much geography we can cover depends on how many systems we get.

Also talked to another guy who retired from AD artillery. Says that old staple of siachen photos, the ZU-23-twins derivatives are scary as hell in the mountains, due to bursts. Apparently he had to witness people around him die for no reason. They seem to be getting replaced. But the pakis seem to love it too and have a huge stock. Casual explanation is that some meesha-festooned jernail of theirs have been watching too many WW2 era ack-ack videos, but then caution says they might have slaved it to fire-control systems. If that is the case, they might have a dense anti-PGM solution (if they can keep all those barrels maintained!). Any insights into that aspect of theirs? Wiki lists 5000 (which if true is a huge maintenance nightmare!)

ZSU-23-2 forms part of Light AD Regiments of AD Corps. These are mounted on high-mobility 4x4 and 6x6; IA also mixes them with MANPADS and these are called Light AD Regiments (Composite). With DRDO developed Tactical Control Radars (TCR) finding their way into AD Regiments, these units have long range eyes to ensure they're not surprised (even if they provide point defense). BTW, ZSU-23-2 has been upgraded extensively by BEL.

[ramana]

One of the big concerns raised by someone I talked to is "What the heck were the AD guys doing?".

AD stays in "hold" mode when own fighters and helicopters are in the air. SAM cannot distinguish between a MiG-21 Bison and F-16 dogfighting. The Patriot missile has had numerous friendly fire incidents. We also had a friendly fire incident wherein Spyder shot down Mi-17V5. The Israeli ship Hanit too had its AD system on hold because of Israeli aircraft nearby when the Hezbollah missile hit it.

hnair, the person you talked to must have spoken before the news of the Mi-17 being downed.

Fratricide is a big issue with AD type of weapons.

[ramana]

Rsatchi, I will concentrate on the political.

#Pulwama attack happened after the last day of the Lok Sabha session and the country was officially in election mode. Basically NaMo govt was a caretaker govt. Hark back to Kargil 1999. ABV govt was also a caretaker govt due to different reason. Caretaker govts in a democracy don't have authority for full war. Recall even in Kargil, ABV said no crossing LOC.

And the retaliation was expected and hence the IAF was ready as you can see that the Fizzleya Large Force Engagement turned out a damp squib. Yes rules of engagement were similar to Kargil.

Still IAF did thwart the attack and even shot down the F-16.


So its unfair to raise such questions regardless of the timing.



* Balakot due to bad weather had to cross the IB briefly.

[SidSoma]

- Our longest range SAM as of now is Akash. Which in case of IAF is based in/around major air force bases. And the ones with the army are with Corps in plains.

This somehow makes me proud.

- Even for Akash to make a difference, the battery would've had to be based bang on the LOC.

- Long story short - We simply don't have enough AD assets. And for the kind of deterrence you're talking about, we've ZERO assets.

TILL NOW.

This is where MR_SAM and S-400 become very critical.

For the first time, they give us tiered SAM based AD cover. With 70-100 km range, MR_SAM gives AD cover to a vast geography. And gives the flexibility to extends the SAM AD cover right up to border/LOC (if required).

Same goes for S-400. The mix of missiles gives allows us to provide AD cover in-depth. We can envision outer-bubble of S-400 (200 Km range), with inner bubble of MR_SAM and point defense by Akash and SPYDER/QR_SAM.

The big issue is when as well as how many. 5 Systems starting in a year (late 2020). May be too little, too late. I dont see one being deployed in Srinagar etc to cover this part of the border. Same with MR SAM.. there is no data on when it will come online. Some say 2020 etc etc. It beats me on how we dont have so many more Akash systems.We are a long way off from all this. Suffice to say, the tatical planning of Pukis has to be commended. Of course it completely lacks strategic depth. Swift retort cannot be pulled off in a years time with the AD cover improving. Their intelligence and picture of our AD, fighter reaction times (ok they might have got this messed up) and ROE seems respectable enough. They came to claim moral victory and hoping for better odds and they were at least partly successful. Its a pity Abhi got captured else I think we would have seen some other game play.

PAF is going to be hard pressed to repeat this sort of stunts. But it gives us an important lesson. We dont understand what they want or dont care. There is something Pakis got out of this and they have found a way to milk it, and they will continue to do so unless there is an provable, overwhelming trouncing they receive. Maybe next time.

[ldev]

- Long story short - We simply don't have enough AD assets. And for the kind of deterrence you're talking about, we've ZERO assets.

The Soviet model was point and shoot fighters backed by strong SAM systems. India got plenty of Soviet and then Russian fighter aircraft but very little in terms of long range SAM systems (until the S400 deal was inked). I am discounting short range Russian systems designed to protect IAF bases. In contrast China has produced domestic variants of long range Russian SAM systems for the last 50 years, designed for area defence e.g. China started producing the HQ-2 way back in the 1960s. It is the Chinese version of the SA-2, the Russian SAM that shot down Gary Powers in his U-2. And China got the S-300 way back in 1994 and has it's own version of it i.e. the HQ-9. The longest ranged HQ-9 system missile supposedly has a range of 200 kms and is deployed by China in its South China Sea island bases. I will not be surprised if in the near future Pakistan acquires the HQ-9 from China to bring it back to near parity when India receives the S400. Maybe the IAF's apathy towards realizing the potential of long range SAM systems as defensive weapons has something to do with the fact that most IAF chiefs have been fighter pilots.........where the whole ethos is a mano-to-mano duel in the sky, maybe ignoring or placing less emphasis on other components that have become vitally important for an effective offensive and defensive air force.

The other area which in my personal opinion contributed to the February 27 situation was the severe shortage/lack of AWACS. It was apparent to even a layman that the Balakot raid had stirred a hornet's nest. Pride would ensure that PAF would respond and respond quickly. How could 24 PAF aircraft take off and position themselves to launch their abortive raid without the IAF being better prepared in terms of number of aircraft to intercept the PAF force. Why were there only 2 SU-30s airborne? Why did the IAF controller and Abinandan have to resort to heroics to save the day? IMO it points to a severe lack of situational awareness besides having the same SOP of the day before unchanged. India needs 24/7 monitoring of all PAF bases even in peacetime. How many AWACS/AEW units are needed for this? That should be the baseline requirement just to take care of the western sector.

Western nations do not have an enemy just across the border. Long range radars pick up potential enemy aircraft long before reach their borders and they are able to scramble fighters to intercept them. In contrast India has an unstable neighbor less than 200 kms from some high value and sensitive locations. The acquisition of the S400 was a long overdue requirement.

[nam]

How could 24 PAF aircraft take off and position themselves to launch their abortive raid without the IAF being better prepared in terms of number of aircraft to intercept the PAF force.

I would just like IAF managed to get in to Pak with PAF jets being 150KM away! Both side with the use of AWACS can watch each other's package very well. Atleast we covered our boundaries, PAF left a big hole!

We don't know it yet, however chances are PAF must have surged a larger number of assets across IB, deliberately reducing numbers in PoK to keep our attention at IB.

Controllers in the AWACS can immediately ask a bunch to ingress at certain point, the moment they notice a gap, as both sides monitor each other well.

It was not a co-incidence that the closet F16 came to LoC was in an area where the Mig21 were present. And the Mig21 managed to reach in time even before the F16 could enter our side.

[yensoy]

The attacker can focus his forces in quantities since only he knows when and where he will attack.

The defender has to continuously defend the entire border/airspace.

That is what happened and it's no surprise or knock on IAF. If we had launched a counterattack, then we would have the upper hand. But having achieved Balakot, the intention was to de-escalate only.

[ldev]

The attacker can focus his forces in quantities since only he knows when and where he will attack.

The defender has to continuously defend the entire border/airspace.

That is what happened and it's no surprise or knock on IAF. If we had launched a counterattack, then we would have the upper hand. But having achieved Balakot, the intention was to de-escalate only.

Precisely. To be aware of where the PAF was concentrating it's aircraft on take-off the IAF needed AWACS to be in the air monitoring Pakistani air space, 24x7 in the immediate aftermath of the Balakot raid. There are news reports that with the present force of 3 Phalcons and 1 Netra the IAF can only maintain AWACs on station for 12 hours out of 24 on the western border.

Anyway, we will never know how 100% of the tactical situation unfolded that day.

[vishvak]

The AF could put up Aeroflots with AWACS radars - doesn't even have to be 360 degrees coverage. Would be helpful in peacetime (and reduce work) but primary target during wartime.

[SRajesh]

Rsatchi, I will concentrate on the political.

#Pulwama attack happened after the last day of the Lok Sabha session and the country was officially in election mode. Basically NaMo govt was a caretaker govt. Hark back to Kargil 1999. ABV govt was also a caretaker govt due to different reason. Caretaker govts in a democracy don't have authority for full war. Recall even in Kargil, ABV said no crossing LOC.

And the retaliation was expected and hence the IAF was ready as you can see that the Fizzleya Large Force Engagement turned out a damp squib. Yes rules of engagement were similar to Kargil.

Still IAF did thwart the attack and even shot down the F-16.


So its unfair to raise such questions regardless of the timing.



* Balakot due to bad weather had to cross the IB briefly.

RamanaJi
With due respect: Kargil action was an 'defender' and fought to take back our land. And 'Caretaker' or not, that one act led to loss of lot of brave soldiers
Could have probably ended lot quicker. I personally feel swargiya Atalji's compassionate nature vis-à-vis Napaks and his close advisors led to that scenario. I don't think you would expect Modiji to act in that fashion, Hence I feel that post 'Balakote' it was out of character from the political side. And mind you this was the second crossing under his tenure.
Coming to Fizzleya, had they been shot down at the LOC or just before crossing that surely would have sent a deeper message to the wider world.
Sire, 'Caretaker or not' if you start something you should be prepared for long /short haul hoping the enemy would behave is not acceptable.
Just for a second, think what if the roles were reversed and we were at the receiving end would we stick to SOP( you could say Kargil but I will always say lots of lives could have been saved and I can say from friend's friend version what it does to the families 20 years on)
I still feel that discussion/dissection would lead to better preparation for future scenarios.

[hnair]

tsarkar and ramana, the conversation happened months after elections. I did not see him around for months and hence asked what is his feel about how the whole chain of events went. No specifics was asked and none given.

"We got to switch off the ADS, when friendly crafts are up in the air" in a lower-alert situation is understandable in a pre-war situation when the forces are being mustered and not yet fully networked, but in a higher alert situation like post-Balakote and upto a full-fledged war, we cant have that as SOP with echundee obsessed military like Pakis. Saying "ADS had to be switched off because of friendlies" brings up the obvious bean-counter question "Why waste 1000s of crores of money on ADS if it is never going to be used in the tightest situations?". If not a smaller footprint skirmish like post-Balakote, under what circumstances will these be used in the maelstrom of a full fledged air war?

Answer has to be somewhere else. My conjecture is that the usage of ADS in a situation between full-fledged airwar and post-Balakote has not been fully realized in this round. post-Balakote seem to me the air equivalent of a post Cold-start scenario: impose punishment on pakis without crossing any of their stupid red lines, but expect pakis to make some tactical moves to justify their GDP-hafta. In that situation, every band in the spectrum of air defense MUST be up and ready for a limited brawl and ADS should ideally take on the holding-corps role, and also a secondary role of providing the Avengers and co with some good linebacking via NWC engagement tactics, when larger formations of PAF appears to be streaking towards them.

NATO, is actually a good case study, whom despite friendly fire incidents since the GW1, seem to have only very very rare such incidents among tens of thousands of missions of missions/sorties that happend around their own active ADS, which means they have figured out a robust IFF and coop engagement system so that their ADS can be utilized to great effect, even if the air is crowded with friendlies. NATO seem to have figured out a way because of the wide range of countries and their capabilities that fight under their command

We need to reach that stage, because post-Balakote situation (of having only A2A options against superior numbers in a sporadic raid) could have happened in Dokhlam and there too, we need to have more than one way to bring down the PLAAF planes, other than just A2A.

Israel's Hanit incident is probably the first time where this has come up in the context of a smaller but more homogeneous, standalone military (unlike NATO with its myraid member air forces), they too might be facing a similar problem of how to tightly wind up the entire IFF system, where friendlies can take on A2A roles without stymieing the SAMs. And yet is not a full on war.

Btw, solution cant be a vast missile battery bristling "Fortress India" kind of game, which will need a trillion dollar budget, but more like can a limited theatre have "variable-range ADS work + A2A work" done in parallel kind of question. That is why I feel mobile B8/MRSAM batteries might help in future, as will the S400 ones.

Summarize: this question of "when should ADS work at full capability?" makes the entire ADS look kind of futile and must have an answer.

[hnair]

rohitvats, thanks for the detailed post, agree on a layered MR-SAM + S400 in future

Million dollar question is - how could've AD Artillery intervened? Through what assets?

Apologies if I was not clear on the post - AD Artillery gentlemen was a second person, retired from Army as Major early on and he was generally talking about the twin-barelled guns' issues. Maybe I should have posted that part in another thread, but what I wanted to highlight was the 5000 count ZU-23 holding by the other side is intruiging and my question was whether it is purposed for defeating PGMs of IAF in a dense airbase/command defense or something.

[tsarkar]

"We got to switch off the ADS, when friendly crafts are up in the air" in a lower-alert situation is understandable in a pre-war situation when the forces are being mustered and not yet fully networked, but in a higher alert situation like post-Balakote and upto a full-fledged war, we cant have that as SOP with echundee obsessed military like Pakis.

Israel's Hanit incident is probably the first time where this has come up in the context of a smaller but more homogeneous, standalone military (unlike NATO with its myraid member air forces), they too might be facing a similar problem of how to tightly wind up the entire IFF system, where friendlies can take on A2A roles without stymieing the SAMs. And yet is not a full on war.

Please read up US Patriot Friendly Fire incidents. The Patriot has shot down more US & Allied aircraft than enemies. So much so that a US pilot fired a HARM missile when painted by Patriot.

https://medium.com/war-is-boring/that-t ... 89d7d03b7d

IFF is a huge problem because aircraft fly with strict emission control and their IFF interrogators dont respond to IFF interrogation from missile & gun system radars. There are EMC/EMI issues as well in combat zones with multiple radio and radar transmissions.

Why waste 1000s of crores of money on ADS if it is never going to be used in the tightest situations?"....under what circumstances will these be used in the maelstrom of a full fledged air war?

Most AD systems stay on hold only for the few minutes own planes are either overflying their sectors going/coming from their destinations or if there is a dogfight overhead. All three aerial activities last a few minutes. For the remaining 24 hours minus the few minutes, they remain fully active.

The Spyder Mi-17 shootdown and the US Patriot incidents show how dangerous IFF is in the real world.

[srai]

^^^
Apart from IFF, certain parameters (altitude, speed, and approach/exit corridor) are coordinated between friendly aircraft and ground AD.

[tsarkar]

Yes, its called air corridors. One of the things being investigated in the Srinagar Mi-17 shootdown is -
Whether the Mi-17 was properly instructed to stay in the air corridor?
Whether the Mi-17 was actually in the air corridor?
Whether AD respected the air corridor?

What is known is that the Mi-17 was instructed to shut down its transponder and it complied with that request.

Also in combat, its not always possible to stay within the air corridor due to 1. enemy in pursuit 2. battle damage 3. malfunctioning equipment.

During 1971 a PIA Fokker misidentified PNS Zulfiqar as an Indian Missile Boat that was strafed by two Pakistani Sabres who fired 900 rounds into it. The ship was beyond repair. IFF and Friendly Fire are a major problem in war.

[nam]

I think, another aspect could be information overload.

Due to IACCS, the shoot down of a Pak UAV near Gujarat must have reached the Northern Command. They would have asked AD to go on high alert to look out for UAV, specially any armed version, which Pak could have send across.

The AD units notice a slow moving unidentified object flying towards Srinagar. It could have been a CH4 ( or a classified chini UAV handed to Pak), armed, coming towards Srinagar to hit targets.

AD decided to fire, than take risks.. If they were not aware of the Gujarat shootdown.. probably they would have held their fire..

[Philip]

This is what has been called " the fog of war".Clausewitz.
" No plan survives on first contact with the enemy".Von Moltke.

Our SOPs appear to be archaic in the context of the post- Balakot air battle. There should be a holistic approach to deal with any eventuality, especially when fired upon by enemy aircraft. To my mind, at that point with hostile missiles entering our air space, peacetime protocol must give way to mllitary requirements.After all our attacking force entered Paki airspace in attacking Balakot , so not to imagine that they would strike us in force and not to be prepared in dealing with a potential attack in large number appears to be a failure of the babu-military establishment. We should've attacked the 24 aircraft that were part of the Paki force
in a far more robust manner. It was left to Abi to draw blood and do justice to the situ even if he was shot down.

The details of the spat have not been released for obvious reasons. We may have to wait for some time before we know exactly what happened, as the IAF will no doubt be fine- tuning plans for future encounters to hit the Pakis even harder.

[Vidur]

I think, another aspect could be information overload.

Due to IACCS, the shoot down of a Pak UAV near Gujarat must have reached the Northern Command. They would have asked AD to go on high alert to look out for UAV, specially any armed version, which Pak could have send across.

The AD units notice a slow moving unidentified object flying towards Srinagar. It could have been a CH4 ( or a classified chini UAV handed to Pak), armed, coming towards Srinagar to hit targets.

AD decided to fire, than take risks.. If they were not aware of the Gujarat shootdown.. probably they would have held their fire..

You mean WAC (Western Air Command). Northern Command is Army. IAF WAC covers J&K to North Rajasthan.

[Vidur]

Rsatchi, I will concentrate on the political.

#Pulwama attack happened after the last day of the Lok Sabha session and the country was officially in election mode. Basically NaMo govt was a caretaker govt. Hark back to Kargil 1999. ABV govt was also a caretaker govt due to different reason. Caretaker govts in a democracy don't have authority for full war. Recall even in Kargil, ABV said no crossing LOC.

And the retaliation was expected and hence the IAF was ready as you can see that the Fizzleya Large Force Engagement turned out a damp squib. Yes rules of engagement were similar to Kargil.

Still IAF did thwart the attack and even shot down the F-16.


So its unfair to raise such questions regardless of the timing.



* Balakot due to bad weather had to cross the IB briefly.

RamanaJi
With due respect: Kargil action was an 'defender' and fought to take back our land. And 'Caretaker' or not, that one act led to loss of lot of brave soldiers
Could have probably ended lot quicker. I personally feel swargiya Atalji's compassionate nature vis-à-vis Napaks and his close advisors led to that scenario. I don't think you would expect Modiji to act in that fashion, Hence I feel that post 'Balakote' it was out of character from the political side. And mind you this was the second crossing under his tenure.
Coming to Fizzleya, had they been shot down at the LOC or just before crossing that surely would have sent a deeper message to the wider world.
Sire, 'Caretaker or not' if you start something you should be prepared for long /short haul hoping the enemy would behave is not acceptable.
Just for a second, think what if the roles were reversed and we were at the receiving end would we stick to SOP( you could say Kargil but I will always say lots of lives could have been saved and I can say from friend's friend version what it does to the families 20 years on)
I still feel that discussion/dissection would lead to better preparation for future scenarios.

I agree.

Any government has full right, and dare I say duty, to defend the nation with any tools it wishes. 'Caretaker Govt' was not the issue in Kargil, it was a considered decision decision by PM. Right or wrong can be debated (I think it was wrong). But govt always has full powers on national security. We are putting self imposed shackles on us by this 'caretaker govt' narrative.

Re Balakot - it was again a considered decision by PM to try not to escalate post 27th. And in my view that was the right decision as elections were coming and he would be accused of war mongering by anti national forces that run our media and in other domains.

The window for giving a bloody nose to enemy was during the air action, and on that TSarkar's post above on Rules of Engagement is largely correct.

[Nihat]

While I'm unsure of the military protocols and procedures, I would assume that there are different levels of alert for the armed forces on the basis of the prevailing situation. In the aftermath of balakot, such levels would have been high which could require rules of engagement to be altered and ideally any armada of fighter aircraft approaching the loc should be fair game.

I wonder if there has been abtw consideration wrt to ROE, post balakot.

[manjgu]

there is peace time ROE, war time ROE... i think the 27th incident fell somewhere in between !!

[srai]

^^^
It will be the new normal just like the regular artillery exchanges along the IOC. Tit for tat retaliation without the full blown escalation. Terrorists targets are fair game for strike by the artillery, SF, and combat aircraft. Responses expected using similar tools.

[fanne]

Btw border is again very hot (no war no peace). There is CAP on both side. I think, in last 1 year, the cross border causality = total of last 10 years. We are taking action on each tsp provocation - cutting head of our Jawans, attacking in JK or elsewhere in India (bigger attacks are replied by bigger spectacular hits). We are defining the new normal. It also involves salami slicing (in reply to known provocations - giving cover fire to infiltrators etc.). TSP should get the hint else the hint will be forced on it.