Further explanation of the aero-dynamix of these things. Evidence: MiG-21 nose was found essentially intact, except that the circular cross-section was now pancaked into a flat elliptic cross-section. The rest of the wreckage was mostly behind that. Which means that the MiG essentially crash-landed in horizontal attitude, still flying nose-first, but hit on the belly first. Engine etc here destroyed by resulting fire, which means there was still fuel in the wings.
Let's think about that. AFAIK, the MiG was at some 5000 to 10,000 feet AGL when it fired its missile at the F-16. (Ground level is itself at 3500 to 5000 feet in those parts), so the above works out to 8500 to 15000 feet MSL. The highest altitude cited was around 20,000 feet, that the F-16 zoomed to shake off the MiG, before diving for the "deck" and then climbing out again, and happily flying west towards home, probably on full afterburner.
When they realized to their fatal shock that the MiG was RIGHT BEHIND THEM, which meant they have about 10 seconds to live. They hit the ejection button(s).
OK, MiG kept them in manual, visual lock as the missile caught up with the F-16, and probably entered a tailpipe and exploded. BUT.... the MiG pilot was stunned to see that there was no last-second evasive maneuver; the bugger(ed) flew straight!!! So when the explosion occurred, it occurred right in front of the MiG, at maybe 1000 meters to 2000 meters? (just guessing here). Stuff flew in all directions at Mach 3 or so. No time to evade, the MiG flew right into the debris cloud. Now we have to speculate:
With automatic instinctive skill he started turning (maybe even climbing since the target was going to go downwards). But the debris cloud caught up with him slightly. At that point he was probably 7km from the LOC. If he was headed home, he was at say 1km AGL (minimum), travelling say Mach 2. IOW, 600m/s. His engine went out.
His plane was straight and level when it lost power. So instinctively he went to Attitude for Best Glide and looked for a landing field, but no hope to land a supersonic jet in such terrain. This speed is far less than Mach 2: let's say Mach 0.6, and he had covered maybe 1 km EASTWARDS in that time. He set it up for best glide, and jumped out. He was also going Mach 0.6.
Let's think about that.
The plane has a nominal L/D of say 10 in level flight, but at this condition with canopy gone, the L/D may be only, say, 7. According to Madarssa Phyling Carbet pissicks, this means the glide slope is inverse tangent of D/L, or ATAN(1/7). That is 8.13 degrees!
If the glide is 1 in 7, that means that he will come down 1000 meters, ONLY AFTER TRAVELING 7000 METERS, or 7 km. He was already at 6.5km, so the plane would hit the ground inside the LOC!!!
What about himself? He was basically like a stone thrown at Mach 0.6 from 1000 meters above the ground. As he came closer to the ground his chute opened, but then the strong wind caught him. So he had some HOPES of coming down inside India, but no surety. As it happened, the winds from EAST to WEST, so he got blown deeper into POK. This explains all the confusion, why he initially hoped he had fallen inside India etc.
But maybe that is **NOT** what happened, because the wreckage did not fall east of the LOC.
Maybe the L/D was only like 4, in which case the wreckage came down about 2 ro 3km WEST of LOC.
Within a second or two after the debris cloud, WCdr. AV realized that he was in trouble: the engine was going phut-phut. He had to shut it down to prevent a catastrophic "uncontained engine failure" which would have sliced him to ribbons. But his plane was still straight and level. Not much chance of turning around, hydraulic fluid was leaking etc. So he had to eject, in order to land as far East as he possibly could. He was still headed west when the MiG became inop, and he realized there was no hope of turning it around. Bailed out. Then the plane would have fallen as deep as 14 km WEST of the LOC. As his parachute opened, he realized that the wind was blowing him at speed relative to the terrain below, so he had some slight hope that he would land East of the LOC (hard to check ur compass as ur are spinning at the end of a parachute blowing in the wind, and anyway there isn't a damn thing you can do to influence events).
In this case he was merely hoping, if it is true that he initially asked if he was in India.
Which means that our latest explanation holds: He shouted Jai Hind! at the local PA HQ, sending most of them scampering for cover screaming "INDIAN SURGICAL STRIKE!!! RUN!!!"