Indian ASAT Test

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Suraj
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Re: Indian ASAT Test

Postby Suraj » 17 Apr 2019 20:44

I provided a few gyans of whizzdom there and elsewhere too. The point was to see who had the testimonials to print those comments and who didn't. These guys don't have the guts - they want some yes men.

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Re: Indian ASAT Test

Postby UlanBatori » 17 Apr 2019 20:53

^ So they have proved their lifafaness. Now the gloves can come off and the boots can go on.
Central premise of UBCN. You write your best stuff, polish it, and send it to idiots. They trash it.
OTOH, you write your best stuff, POST IT ON THE WEB - and let hajaar ppl cite it all over the web. Trash THEM in it.

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Re: Indian ASAT Test

Postby dinesha » 17 Apr 2019 21:41

India’s ASAT Test: An Incomplete Success
ASHLEY J. TELLIS
APRIL 15, 2019

https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/04/1 ... -pub-78884

Summary: India’s recent anti-satellite test was a warning to China and will only exacerbate the rivalry between the two countries. India must prepare for a long-term space competition.

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Re: Indian ASAT Test

Postby UlanBatori » 17 Apr 2019 21:49

O! Big Bwana hath spoken. It must be so!

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Re: Indian ASAT Test

Postby disha » 17 Apr 2019 23:30

dinesha wrote:India’s ASAT Test: An Incomplete Success
ASHLEY J. TELLIS
APRIL 15, 2019

https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/04/1 ... -pub-78884

Summary: India’s recent anti-satellite test was a warning to China and will only exacerbate the rivalry between the two countries. India must prepare for a long-term space competition.


Major virtue signaling by Ashley Tellis., What he means by "incomplete success" is that India's ASAT capability is currently restricted to only 'Direct Ascent Hit-to-Kill' ASAT. But is behind in ground based lasers, space based lasers, co-orbital decapitation without causing a debris event, space based microwave.

What Tellis is arguing is that in "star wars", China is ahead and India has not even started off the block! And hence India's ASAT test is an "incomplete success".

Tellis is signalling the following virtues:

1. Shitty-Bitty on Direct Ascent Hit to Kill
2. Shitty-Bitty on "Star Wars" <- And this is where he wants to close the gates*

First of all, I think Tellis and their ilk have forgotten high-school physics and second they think about the end game and not the means to an end. For example, if India can launch micro/small/mini/midi/maxi sats in space, it can also launch microwave emitters and lasers that can blind bogeys. It is the launch capacity that is important and not necessarily the end results**

*I have advocated in earlier pages that for India a better test would be to resuscitate a LEO sat. That is it can send a satellite whose whole purpose is to provide fuel to other LEO satellites. And when its mission is about to end, it will capture a few space junk and do a hara-kiri along with the space junk. It proves several things.

**I do not think Chicom have reached a stage where they can operationalize their missiles cheaply. They are behind in several key but foundational technologies. Like SSBs and RLGs.

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Re: Indian ASAT Test

Postby souravB » 18 Apr 2019 03:01

Posting this video here for viewpoint purposes


highlights:
  1. Most debris will re-enter in 1-2 months. small numbers may stay for 1-2 years.
  2. Impact vector was downward and not ascending as some 'analysts' have predicted.
  3. Hypervelocity impact.
  4. probability of damage to ISS is <10^-10 but due to it's size it could be a bit higher.

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Re: Indian ASAT Test

Postby Indranil » 18 Apr 2019 04:14

souravB wrote:Posting this video here for viewpoint purposes


highlights:
  1. Most debris will re-enter in 1-2 months. small numbers may stay for 1-2 years.
  2. Impact vector was downward and not ascending as some 'analysts' have predicted.
  3. Hypervelocity impact.
  4. probability of damage to ISS is <10^-10 but due to it's size it could be a bit higher.

I think you misunderstood what they were saying. They initially thought that the impact vector was downward, but now they are not so sure.

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Re: Indian ASAT Test

Postby Haridas » 18 Apr 2019 20:32

Nalla Baalu wrote:
JayS wrote:Interception at upward vector is good no..? It conclusively proves that the ASAT PDV MK2 is capable of much higher altitude interception (and range).


DRDO chief is on record stating interception altitude capability of more than 1000 km. This specification need not be considered speculative, IMHO.

Kinematic performance of rocket stages and mass fraction show abelity to take down targets at 1500 km altitude (at about 500 km earth referred cross-range).

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Re: Indian ASAT Test

Postby UlanBatori » 19 Apr 2019 07:52

Question, Haridasji: (BTW, thanks!!!)
The rocket stages and launcher vehicle seem to be Prithvi derivatives. So working backwards, doesn't this mean that Prithvis can be refitted with these ASAT/BMD type computers and pulsed thrusters, to give them pin-point accuracy against moving targets such as aircraft and tanks deep inside Pakistan? The warhead may or may not be enough to destroy a tank, but surely a jeep or a helicopter or jet.

So with 100s of Prithvis, India can "take out" Sargodha and Peshawar and ISI HQ with one Prithvi barrage without IAF even getting out of bed. 500 km cross-range is enough, even with only a 50km rise, to cover all of Pakistan, right?

Reminds me of the story from Mariupol, Ukraine: Three Ukrainian govt tanks drove up and parked inside a school compound. 2 minutes later a missile came right into the compound and blew up one tank: Then within a second or two, a second missile blasted tank #2, pieces of its crew were hanging from trees. The crew of #3 got out and ran away ASAP. No missile came for that. 2 missiles, 2 tanks.

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Re: Indian ASAT Test

Postby negi » 19 Apr 2019 11:04

Ashley J Tellis and many bwana dimags don't understand that in a real street fight no one wears gloves and throws punches , in fact the guy who grabs a nearby stone and smashes the other chap's skull often wins . If and when the real war would happen countries won't be wasting time on trying to make surgical kills they will explode a huge nuke in the LEO in the vicinity of cluster of enemy sats and take down the entire bunch . There are more possibilities when a country has ability to launch dozen satellites in different orbits from a single launch.

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Re: Indian ASAT Test

Postby mody » 19 Apr 2019 11:55

negi wrote:Ashley J Tellis and many bwana dimags don't understand that in a real street fight no one wears gloves and throws punches , in fact the guy who grabs a nearby stone and smashes the other chap's skull often wins . If and when the real war would happen countries won't be wasting time on trying to make surgical kills they will explode a huge nuke in the LEO in the vicinity of cluster of enemy sats and take down the entire bunch . There are more possibilities when a country has ability to launch dozen satellites in different orbits from a single launch.


This may not necessarily be the scenario. Say in an Indo-Pak conflict, chinis can dazzle and temporaily disable Indian sats for a few days or use jamming to disrupt the signals from the satellites to the gound stations and vice a versa. It would be difficult to prove immedietaly that the disruption was being caused by China and if proven, would India launch as ASAT missile to bring down a Chini satellite or a paki satellite (cina provided).

However, what Ashley Tellis misses is that India too is working on many of the technologies that China is working on. DRDO ex-chief Dr. Christofer is on record to say that apart from the ASAT KKV missile that was tested, India is working on ground based directed energy weapons, as well as co-orbiltal destruction technology or service satellite type systems. The ASAT test was just to signal that India is ready for a space fight if required and has the technology to compete with the best and is working on a host of systems.

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Re: Indian ASAT Test

Postby Vips » 19 Apr 2019 16:54

India has to prioritize the development (and demonstrate) the development of co-orbital destruction of a targeted satellite at the earliest.

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Re: Indian ASAT Test

Postby negi » 19 Apr 2019 23:25

^ A country that has launched more than a dozen sats in dedicated orbits in a single launch does not have to do much to get such an ability, I agree with gist of UB's post i.e. taking down sats is relatively trivial thing when compared to taking out an ICBM in it's mid course , today everyone with medium range missiles in theory can take down a sat in LEO , ok if someone wants to split hairs about HTK etc , baba there are no grace marks for doing HTK if someone cannot do that they will explode a huge frag. explosive or even a small nuke big deal. The key is when war happens the country that will have an upper hand will not be the one with most exotic ASAT tech , it will be the one that has most survivable sat launch systems . What is more important for India to develop is capability to launch LEO spy sats from road mobile launchers from vehicles that are truly dual use i.e. say a Agni that can lob a ton of explosives 5k km downrange or park a 400 kg sat at about 400km in orbit , it is these capabilities that will truly give us a true tactical edge versus ticking exotic checkboxes like DEW, EMP , ASAT missile etc . People often ascribe mythical powers to laser dazzlers yes they can blind a sat for a duration but those who are in business of making Spy sats have been taking measures to work around such ploys , one can always ensure the sensors are always protected when sat is in orbit and only exposed when it is over the region that is under investigation , further to counter signal jamming you don't have to always transmit the data in continuous mode one can simply collect and store it onboard and only transmit it in bursts when one is over a friendly territory jamming signals from ground based emitters is impossible when there is no LoS shot possible. As for orbital vehicles that can cary out attacks as I said we have parked more than 2 dozen sats in single launch nothing stops us from deploying a FOBS like network of payloads in designated orbits which will can be activated at a time of our choosing , it's a matter of making that decision the technology exists .

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Re: Indian ASAT Test

Postby prasannasimha » 20 Apr 2019 01:13

UlanBatori wrote:Question, Haridasji: (BTW, thanks!!!)
The rocket stages and launcher vehicle seem to be Prithvi derivatives. So working backwards, doesn't this mean that Prithvis can be refitted with these ASAT/BMD type computers and pulsed thrusters, to give them pin-point accuracy against moving targets such as aircraft and tanks deep inside Pakistan? The warhead may or may not be enough to destroy a tank, but surely a jeep or a helicopter or jet.

So with 100s of Prithvis, India can "take out" Sargodha and Peshawar and ISI HQ with one Prithvi barrage without IAF even getting out of bed. 500 km cross-range is enough, even with only a 50km rise, to cover all of Pakistan, right?

Reminds me of the story from Mariupol, Ukraine: Three Ukrainian govt tanks drove up and parked inside a school compound. 2 minutes later a missile came right into the compound and blew up one tank: Then within a second or two, a second missile blasted tank #2, pieces of its crew were hanging from trees. The crew of #3 got out and ran away ASAP. No missile came for that. 2 missiles, 2 tanks.

The first stage is NOT derived from Prithvi.

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Re: Indian ASAT Test

Postby UlanBatori » 20 Apr 2019 03:07

Oops.

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Re: Indian ASAT Test

Postby AdityaM » 21 Apr 2019 02:37

https://twitter.com/tskelso/status/1119 ... 36801?s=21

CelesTrak now has TLEs for 14 more pieces of debris from the Indian ASAT test with 1 pending. That brings the total to 85 with 8 showing as decayed at this point. Check out orbit visualization at bit.ly/2GmUtim for more.


https://celestrak.com/cesium/orbit-viz. ... nceFrame=1

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Re: Indian ASAT Test

Postby Varoon Shekhar » 28 Apr 2019 08:30

In one of the latest " India Today" magazines, there is a concise article by Raj Chengappa entitled " Space Shakti" He pretty clearly says that the asat test is more challenging than an ABM hit, because of the altitude of the former. The accuracy has to be within 5cm, as well.

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Re: Indian ASAT Test

Postby ramana » 28 Apr 2019 11:24

UlanBatori wrote:Oops.



Kill vehicle could be.

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Re: Indian ASAT Test

Postby Supratik » 28 Apr 2019 16:35

Link to Chengappa article?

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Re: Indian ASAT Test

Postby Varoon Shekhar » 28 Apr 2019 17:52


UlanBatori
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Re: Indian ASAT Test

Postby UlanBatori » 28 Apr 2019 19:33

Sorry, didn't see any new gyan there. Why should you hit a satellite with 5cm accuracy? Just for argument, say you whacked the solar panel on one extreme with a very light tap. I bet that would send the satellite into a spin that would couple with other orbital dynamics to send the satellite on a wild path, plus its solar panels will be totally ineffective. Result: satellite kaput, no need even for fragmentation.

Only thing I learned was that the launch was from Odisha not west coast/interior mobile launcher as I had hoped. You wonder about the vegetation seen in the mobile launcher parts of the DRDO PR video: is that SHAR which I thought was mostly arid, barren?
Also that success had been announced at 11:20 to the PM, so why was the TV appearance delayed to 12:35 - sending the whole nation into a lungi-shivering tizzy? Time to re-draft the statement?

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Re: Indian ASAT Test

Postby ramana » 01 May 2019 00:48

UB, 5 cm accuracy means can take out RVs.
Thats why the figure is mentioned.
As for your last line all squared up.
Things quiet on that front.

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Re: Indian ASAT Test

Postby UlanBatori » 01 May 2019 08:45

So again, the words said "ASAT" but the language, precise numbers and imagery all shouted "Mijjile Nood!" Excellent. Even that segment of the pulsed thrusters doing a flame dance hammered home the message.
Still a bit confused on the first stage vs. the rest. In recent pics the first stage looks like an oversized tub borrowed from something while the upper parts are sleek. Can the firs stage also be loaded on mobile launcher? Maybe there are different models.

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Re: Indian ASAT Test

Postby hnair » 01 May 2019 10:15

UlanBatori wrote:So again, the words said "ASAT" but the language, precise numbers and imagery all shouted "Mijjile Nood!" Excellent. Even that segment of the pulsed thrusters doing a flame dance hammered home the message.
Still a bit confused on the first stage vs. the rest. In recent pics the first stage looks like an oversized tub borrowed from something while the upper parts are sleek. Can the firs stage also be loaded on mobile launcher? Maybe there are different models.


Saar, it seem the first two stages are borrowed from the SLBM lineage of K4 fat ladies, stout enough to reach all the way up the 1500 km high hoop and do a slam-dunk of most of the haram satellites.

No images of a K4 lying on a table or atop a flame are yet available in open source. IIRC, the only known video of a K4 launch is this:


(That tractor-puller gas generator thingy on the nose of K4, probably for pulling it to surface and also for reducing water resistance underwater (like this french one), acts as a fine ISI-issue purqa to hide all haram parts below the hairline :( )

The upper stage and probably KV are all from the endo-to-exo swing role PDV kill vehicle, that was twice tested
Image

Since the K4 is said to be 17t and is usually kept sealed in the tube, am assuming the first stage also can be lugged around in an enlarged petti-autorickshaw.

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Re: Indian ASAT Test

Postby UlanBatori » 02 May 2019 03:21

Thx. So it must take a 14-wheeler or 18-wheeler to lug that sort of payload around.

Rules out many of the roads and bridges of desh but doable on highways. Maybe there are models that travel around by train like Ronald Reagan's PeaceKeeper. Great thought: a couple of ASATs behind me as I sit in the AC Chair Car. :eek:

{One has to be careful these days: for a moment I wondered whether the halal 400% Fauji Aphsar of same naam had also been corrupted into Pingreji}
Last edited by UlanBatori on 02 May 2019 03:23, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian ASAT Test

Postby AdityaM » 11 May 2019 12:31

Dileep wrote:KALI is soo 20th century. We are looking at much better stuff now.

Powers are being scaled up relentlessly, and the associated challenges are being worked out. If you monitor the eprocure site, you will get some idea where we are.


Going off topic but came across this video that suggests that Kali was used as a weapon from an air platform to engineer an avalanche that destroyed enemy battalion headquarters near Siachen in 2012! killing 120+


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Re: Indian ASAT Test

Postby Snehashis » 11 May 2019 14:23

AdityaM wrote:Going off topic but came across this video that suggests that Kali was used as a weapon from an air platform to engineer an avalanche that destroyed enemy battalion headquarters near Siachen in 2012! killing 120+


It's a brilliantly written scenario posted by Sharma in Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII dhaga back in 2012.

viewtopic.php?t=4287&start=2320#p1267522

ramana
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Re: Indian ASAT Test

Postby ramana » 14 May 2019 04:34

Second that.
And it was publicized even by Bharat Karnad.

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Re: Indian ASAT Test

Postby AdityaM » 14 May 2019 11:34

Snehashis wrote:
AdityaM wrote:Going off topic but came across this video that suggests that Kali was used as a weapon from an air platform to engineer an avalanche that destroyed enemy battalion headquarters near Siachen in 2012! killing 120+


It's a brilliantly written scenario posted by Sharma in Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII dhaga back in 2012.

viewtopic.php?t=4287&start=2320#p1267522


So the video was just a ripoff from this post.


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