India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

[Pashupatastra]

Let us think, can we with our Industrial base take on China for a sustained war for say 1 month and come out winners. Short war , no doubt we will have the edge, but long drawn. How much of our people and media which are screaming WAR, will support if one or two missiles fall on a city. No doubt we will retaliate. I am not worried about our Forces' morale, I am worried about our media, civilians. What happened during 99 hijack crisis? Will we stand behind our armed forces , no matter what the hardships?

The people have always stood behind our forces be it in 1947 , 65 ,71 or 1999. During hijack crises , Indian leadership had a chance to flush them out at Amritsar airport but they decided against it. We all are together in this and will fight as one , come what may.

[ernest]

Times now reporting 30 deaths admitted by PLA

https://twitter.com/TimesNow/status/1273244301732921351

edit: Which has since been removed . No other source showing it. Must have fallen for a parody / psyops

[Vivasvat]

Times now reporting 30 deaths admitted by PLA

https://twitter.com/TimesNow/status/1273244301732921351

This tweet was deleted moments after I accessed it.

[khan]

https://www.pgurus.com/abhijit-iyer-mit ... in-galwan/

Honestly, it was puke-worthy. No mention of the attack being pre-meditated. He just talks about it like it is some accident.

This incident has caused me to re-evaluate how to think about these Defense analysts. I think there might be some merit in “analysts” pushing a narrative that benefits one side or the other & us Jingos hearing what we want to hear.

We should have perhaps had more of an open mind for what people like Sourav Jha were trying to tell us - even though we didn’t like what they had to say.

[Sumair]

[abhik]

If I try and empathize with China, the problem with China is that it is also fairly hemmed in

Oopar Russi and CIS satellites

Small but powerful countries to east like Japan or SoKo

South has US bases in Philippines, Singapore and Oz.

Only to east they have potential for lebensraum and there thorn is Indian civ. If it becomes vassal, they can expand till caspain.

Why is it that China cant even think of taking panga with anybody else on its other borders but thinks (successfully) it can get away with anything when it comes to India?

It is because of our non practical and idealistic thinking and mindset. Had we not drunk to much of the ahimsa kool aid situation today would have been much different.

China has resolved its land disputes with all other neighbouring countries (in its favour) except India. So only unresolved areas are (1) India (2) Taiwan (3) In the maritime domain i.e. 9-dash line and other minor islands. Conflict if any is also likely to happen theses areas only.

[DrRatnadip]

https://twitter.com/TaiwanNews886/statu ... 57216?s=19

[fanne]

So guys here is my understanding of the situation - Mostly from open sources, two sources that are not open, and one is not GOI (the other is to an extent of gup shup, no real or otherwise operational secrets are discussed). So disclaimer, to whoever is reading, please I am not revealing anything , it is mostly connecting dots and doing some logical analysis. Please feel free to delete it if it goes far.

So if indeed chicoms break an agreement and kill IA soldiers (as they did in Galwan), what are our options -
1)Kill the same group of people who broke the agreement - Easier said than done, if it was premeditated, and if they planned better, sending more men will result in more casualty
2)Go somewhere else dash and win some land - What stops the chicoms coming back and fighting and retaking that land? (I.e. in essence you have further escalated the already escalated fight with more cost and dead bodies)
3) Escalate elsewhere and kill few PLA soldiers. Then all 4000 KM border is free for all, remember, if we can kill so can they and they have better infra, we have more troops and more hills. A new level of stalemate may reach, after many dead from both side - Maybe not as bad an outcome considering that chicoms are constantly slami slicing, hopefully (hopefully that is) that will stop this slami slicing
4) ...many other options you get the drift
5) As a breach of agreement, we overtake a contested land (just that contested land, where both are present, we evict and capture, they can of course capture back if they are willing to make a large sacrifice in dead bodies. We may decide to up the ante at that point and deny them that victory and keep the land (essentially accept more dead bodies on our side as well as operations continue). Essentially, punishing PLA every time they breach an agreement by taking a contested land elsewhere (where it is convenient for us and we have element of surprise) and keeping it. PLA then has two choices, fight with more dead (now we are entrenched and no surprise left) or behave and do not breach else where. This option looks like workable, short of a full fledged war.

So my take on the sequence
1. T+0 hours - Galwan mishap happens, PLA goes back on its word (the right word is betrayal or inability to keep your word) and kills some unarmed IA soldiers. It turns out later that there is more loss in PLA side because of their stupidity but that info only is apparent after T+ 30 HOURS. No body yet knows this outcome
2. Per the plan, IA already knows what should be the second step (targets, logistics, backup all preplanned). All moves are gamed. Some other place of IA choosing is selected
3.T+24 hours, goal achieved, some IA casualty and more chicom casualty (mostly because we had element of surprise), area captured, reinforced
4.T+30 hours, the mishap of T+0 hours announced, misinformed as happened at T+24 hours
5. Total death in operations 1 and 2 from IA =20
6. Some other tactical advantages also achieved.

On twitter and elsewhere usual randy rona dhona continues. Each seeing the event from their own lens.

[Vivasvat]

Meanwhile in naPak....
From Dawn:
Services chiefs attend rare briefing at ISI headquarters

It is rare for all services chiefs to visit the ISI headquarters together for a briefing on national security. The services chiefs normally meet at the forum of the joint chiefs of staff committee, the principal tri-services coordination forum. The joint chiefs’ forum has not met since July 2018.

The ISI has, meanwhile, been giving briefings to the political and military leadership. Prime Minister Imran Khan has twice been to the ISI headquarters — on April 23 and June 3 — for intelligence briefings on the security threats.

Among other concerns, Pakistani officials worry that any conflict with India could undo the progress made towards peace in Afghanistan after protracted efforts.

Afghan Taliban and other factions are set to initiate their internal dialogue – the intra-Afghan talks – in Doha in a little over a week. The Afghan government and Taliban are likely to complete prisoners swap by this weekend, which would fulfil a major condition for the talks.

[khan]

2. Per the plan, IA already knows what should be the second step (targets, logistics, backup all preplanned). All moves are gamed. Some other place of IA choosing is selected
3.T+24 hours, goal achieved, some IA casualty and more chicom casualty (mostly because we had element of surprise), area captured, reinforced

Are you saying this already happened or is this a way forward for future conflicts?

[fanne]

2. Per the plan, IA already knows what should be the second step (targets, logistics, backup all preplanned). All moves are gamed. Some other place of IA choosing is selected
3.T+24 hours, goal achieved, some IA casualty and more chicom casualty (mostly because we had element of surprise), area captured, reinforced

Are you saying this already happened or is this a way forward for future conflicts?

please read carefully the answer is there

[Sumair]

If all this is in public domain as you state; then what is the need of this cryptology. Kindly elaborate as to what exactly you are saying.

[khan]

If all this is in public domain as you state; then what is the need of this cryptology. Kindly elaborate as to what exactly you are saying.

Yes. Especially what other offensive operation has IA done that was a grand success & is in public domain.

If it isn’t in public domain, that’s fine - but for us, we have to treat it like it didn’t happen, or the risk is we start behaving like delusional Pkaistani’s conjuring up imaginary wars & imaginary victories.

[samirdiw]

Need a regime change in Beijing.

The iron is hot.

The only way for that to happen is for us to roll into the LAC in force and create a situation where Xi is responsible for the loss of Chinese territory and Chinese lives. Create a revolt against him by imposing a disaster under his reign.

We're not driving to Beijing with an armor column and remove the SOB like the US did with Saddam.

We have to wage a general war on the border. Raids and ambushes won't do it.

Thank you chola.

Some folks are calling for thousand cuts. This thousand cuts is not possible in Tibet, it needs a large population. Tibetians have already lost a lot and it is inhuman for us to expect them to do more especially when we have not shown them any confidence that we will fight for them. The cuts in kashmir is only possible due to their confidence that pakistan will fight at international places and on the ground. Tibetians have neither from us. It is inhuman and shameful to ask them to bleed more without us also willing to share the blood spilling. This asking of Tibetians to spill on their own should stop right now!


Why will we still continue to think that Tibet is a problem of Tibetians is beyond me. Tibet is India' security problem for gods sake! In fact in the order of priority Tibet is more important than GB. Tibet population is also more pro-India than GB. God has not said Tibet belongs to the Chinese just bullies in China who made that happen! With the disgusting chinese out of Tibet, Pak itself is not a problem anymore let alone GB. What is needed is a single cut done by our armed forces to at least divide Historical Tibet into 2. The timing chosen by us.

[abhik]

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/1273226558195433472

Saurav Jha
@SJha1618

Meanwhile, reports of a heavy People's Liberation Army Ground Force (PLAGF) buildup opposite Chushul Sector are coming in. Stay tuned.

Being reported by others too, PLA is probably building up/mobilising to forward areas under the guise of talks and de-escalation.

[suryag]

So All India Radio has now started a Tibetan service ? Src: drapr007 .... this is news to me

[Pashupatastra]

The only way for that to happen is for us to roll into the LAC in force and create a situation where Xi is responsible for the loss of Chinese territory and Chinese lives. Create a revolt against him by imposing a disaster under his reign.

We're not driving to Beijing with an armor column and remove the SOB like the US did with Saddam.

We have to wage a general war on the border. Raids and ambushes won't do it.

Thank you chola.

Some folks are calling for thousand cuts. This thousand cuts is not possible in Tibet, it needs a large population. Tibetians have already lost a lot and it is inhuman for us to expect them to do more especially when we have not shown them any confidence that we will fight for them. The cuts in kashmir is only possible due to their confidence that pakistan will fight at international places and on the ground. Tibetians have neither from us. It is inhuman and shameful to ask them to bleed more without us also willing to share the blood spilling. This asking of Tibetians to spill on their own should stop right now!


Why will we still continue to think that Tibet is a problem of Tibetians is beyond me. Tibet is India' security problem for gods sake! In fact in the order of priority Tibet is more important than GB. Tibet population is also more pro-India than GB. God has not said Tibet belongs to the Chinese just bullies in China who made that happen! What is needed is a single cut done by our armed forces to at least divide Historical Tibet into 2. The timing chosen by us.

Commend the thoughts. As our hero , the martyr Lt. Manoj Pandey said " Some goals are so worthy , it's glorious even to fail". Even if the war cannot destroy CCP rule in totality or lead to regime change , at least it would serve an example to the enemies for at least 20 -30 years.

[abhik]

So All India Radio has now started a Tibetan service ? Src: drapr007 .... this is news to me

From the official twitter account:

https://twitter.com/prasarbharati/statu ... 4075037698

Prasar Bharati
@prasarbharati
·
2h
Listen to All India Radio's Tibetan World Service for authentic news and programmes for and from Tibet.
@AkashvaniAIR

Update: only thing available now on the YT account is a few Mann Ki Baat translations.

[khan]

So All India Radio has now started a Tibetan service ? Src: drapr007 .... this is news to me

From the official twitter account:

https://twitter.com/prasarbharati/statu ... 4075037698

Prasar Bharati
@prasarbharati
·
2h
Listen to All India Radio's Tibetan World Service for authentic news and programmes for and from Tibet.
@AkashvaniAIR

Update: only thing available now on the YT account is a few Mann Ki Baat translations.

I actually saw that & went on Wikipedia, it seems like the service is not new, but the timing of the tweet is highly suggestive.

[nam]

PM makes a statement on India china clash

https://youtu.be/u2nKo05h-oo

Is there a site or video with the full English transcript of this?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eat7TKMUMAE ... name=large

[Dilbu]

Some malayalam news outlets are reporting that India may change the ROE for units patrolling the LAC. Fire arms may be permitted. Welcome news if true.

[RajaRudra]

In all this tension time. Hope we will continue and speed up all the BRO works.
There are news that PP14 is now in our control.
From now on, Things may go up/down depending on many many factors. But the need for infra is the constant. Even if there is a pause on border, it may recur again even next year. Road construction in many places cannot happen in winter. We should utilize this time to maximum in constructions until the bullet start flying.

[Aditya_V]

Some malayalam news outlets are reporting that India may change the ROE for units patrolling the LAC. Fire arms may be permitted. Welcome news if true.

This is the problem, no need to announce- the Chinese should be kept guessing, they can find out when our bullets hit thier soldiers. Media is making too many commitments, in fact media must convince the Chinese we will not attack and set them up.

[Krita]

AIR Tibetan Radio, when did they start this service.
https://mobile.twitter.com/prasarbharat ... 4075037698

[Sanju]

Some malayalam news outlets are reporting that India may change the ROE for units patrolling the LAC. Fire arms may be permitted. Welcome news if true.

This is the problem, no need to announce- the Chinese should be kept guessing, they can find out when our bullets hit thier soldiers. Media is making too many commitments, in fact media must convince the Chinese we will not attack and set them upnd .

Based on Fanne ji's post, looks like this has already happened.

[Barath]

This is the crux of the matter

Relative defence spending India vs China vs Pakistan

https://ibb.co/f9Ttmnr

You should add or substitute GNP of the 3 countries as it helps drive , enable and sustain military spending and helps meet aspirations. Even the Soviet union faltered as a result of not growing the economy enough

Plus economic leverage is a mighty power in it's own right. One that china prefers to use

[RaviB]

I hope it's ok to post this here, it's intended to give a peek into Chinese SM.

I decided to look at weibo to see what the Chinese are saying. Currently the 2nd most popular trend is about China and India agreeing to resolve the situation peacefully. Many of the posters are angry that the government hasn't published information about the number of people dead. Some are happy that Chinese soldiers lived up to their martial tradition (ahem). The narrative there is that Indian soldiers attacked peaceful Chinese. Their version of Wang Yi's statement is as follows (I'm pasting a translation in full since all other media have been cherrypicking). Generally the impression I get is that the Chinese have no appetite for war. The Government has already censored the posts calling for it. The new trend is also a very bland one chosen by the censors China and India agree to continue to resolve relevant issues through dialogue and consultation.

On June 17, 2020, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a telephone conversation with Indian Foreign Minister Su Jiesheng [This is the Chinese name of FM Jaishankar].

Wang Yi said that on the evening of June 15th, the Indian front-line border forces openly broke the consensus reached at the military-level meeting between the two sides. Once the situation in the Galwan Valley has slowed down, they crossed the actual control line again and deliberately provoked, even violent. Attacking the officers and soldiers who negotiated with the Chinese side led to fierce physical clashes, resulting in casualties. This risky act of the Indian army seriously violated the agreement reached between the two countries on the border issue and seriously violated the basic norms of international relations. China once again expressed its strong protest to the Indian side. We urge the Indian side to conduct a thorough investigation on this, severely punish those responsible for the incident, strictly control the frontline troops, and immediately stop all provocative actions to ensure that such incidents cannot occur again. The Indian side must not misjudge the current situation and must not underestimate China's firm will to safeguard territorial sovereignty.

Wang Yi emphasized that both China and India are emerging forces with a population of more than one billion people, and accelerating their own development and revitalization is our respective historical mission. For this reason, mutual respect and mutual support is the right way of the two sides, which is in the long-term interests of the two countries; mutual suspicion and mutual friction are evil roads, contrary to the fundamental aspirations of the two peoples. The two sides should follow the important consensus reached by the leaders of the two countries and strengthen the communication and coordination on the proper handling of the border situation through the existing channels such as the meeting mechanism between the special representatives of the Sino-Indian border and the meeting mechanism of the border defense force, so as to jointly maintain peace and tranquility in the border area.

Su Jiesheng introduced the Indian side's position and expressed that India is willing to proceed from the overall situation of the relations between the two countries, implement the consensus between the leaders of the two countries with China, peacefully resolve disputes in the border areas through dialogue, and ease tensions in the border areas.

The two sides agreed to deal fairly with the serious events caused by the conflict in the Gallevan Valley, jointly abide by the consensus reached at the military-level meetings between the two sides, cool down the situation on the ground as soon as possible, and maintain peace and tranquility in the border area in accordance with the agreement reached so far between the two countries.

After the speech of PM Modi, there is some fresh anger, also allegations that Trump is behind the incident.

[rsangram]

---- POST DELETED ----

[ParGha]

Akshay Kapoor, KSingh - I have noticed a couple of you mention that the Chinese army is made up of conscripts. This is no longer true for their enlisted ranks since mid-1990s. Some of the Young Officers in a unit may be draftees because military training is mandatory in all universities and some are sent on rotation with field units, but it is not a significant number.

[Abhi_G]

In all this tension time. Hope we will continue and speed up all the BRO works.

Trains carrying construction workers for the purpose of construction have been cancelled.

[khan]

In all this tension time. Hope we will continue and speed up all the BRO works.

Trains carrying construction workers for the purpose of construction have been cancelled.

At this point, can't have construction workers in the middle of a war zone.

[m_saini]

--deleted-- Sorry sir.

[samirdiw]

Hoping the minimum the govt will do is a 100% duty on Chinese imports. If they do the same to us it will be awesome. We sell all natural resources and they sell back some plastic nonsense. This will eliminate the $56 Billion trade deficit which has drastically increased under this govt. This should be further followed up with the large retail chains like walmart under the condition of 90% indian goods and invite companies like ikea to have their manufacturing base here.

[Sanju]

There are unconfirmed reports from international media sources on SM that India is in control of the Chinese part of Pangong Tso, that was taken post 1962 by the Chinese.

[Iyersan]

There are unconfirmed reports on SM that India is in control of the Chinese part of Pangong Tso, that was taken post 1962 by the Chinese.

Fake news

[khan]

There are unconfirmed reports from international media sources on SM that India is in control of the Chinese part of Pangong Tso, that was taken post 1962 by the Chinese.

Can you post links? I don't understand the point of posts like these w/o links.

[Sanju]

There are unconfirmed reports from international media sources on SM that India is in control of the Chinese part of Pangong Tso, that was taken post 1962 by the Chinese.

Can you post links? I don't understand the point of posts like these w/o links.

Every post that I put here from SM, I put in the link. I will do so when the report is confirmed or uncofirmed. Why put a link when it may be prove to be false?

[Rakesh]

After the speech of PM Modi, there is some fresh anger, also allegations that Trump is behind the incident.

Where did you read this?

[Iyersan]

Jha is reporting a PLA build up near Chusul. PLA is expecting an attack on the finger area.

Chusul build up is to counter that.

I would really be pleasantly surprised if we seized the initiative and attacked

[Iyersan]

There are unconfirmed reports from international media sources on SM that India is in control of the Chinese part of Pangong Tso, that was taken post 1962 by the Chinese.

https://twitter.com/ippatel/status/1273 ... 28224?s=19
Even blue ticks reporting it. Does this mean War?