India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

[abhik]

...
I wonder why the choose the present timing to pick a fight with India though, when they are already impacted by Covid, trade slow down, friction with many neighbours and open enmity with America. Perhaps they think too highly of their capabilities and are being delusional ?

This is the perfect time to fight, Most the world is going through or just recovering from lockdowns which has greatly impacted economies and military preparedness (and china had apparently gotten away lightly, may be not with the recent news). US is in complete political turmoil, and with an elections just round the corner - the US administration will be in the weakest position to respond military (coming in aid to us or Taiwan) - since it will essentially be starting World War 3.

[Vadivel]

Excellent part 2 as well. Learnt a lot. Thank you RaviB-Ji.

[Venkarl]

OT:
I am shocked to realize that I've been so close to Chinese post in 2014 when we went on ladakh ride.
https://goo.gl/maps/rTqHnu3HeRJK6L3x7

Interesting saar - so was there some sort of crossing point identifying the LAC?

Also, any idea what this structure to the west of your shared location was (https://goo.gl/maps/Q7kpqZQ7R2Sb4WRu6)? Not sure if it was constructed back then (looks fairly new), but any details you could share would be useful for us to build a picture. I was always under the impression that the entire Spanggur lake area was under Chinese control, but looks like we have a toehold.

No sir...our route and ILP permitted us to stick with Chumathang--Loma Nyoma bend--Detour to Hanle--back to bend--onwards to Pangong via Chushul, spangmik...no roads back then..only tire tracks in the gravel..I still cherish that ride

On that bolded location...I am not sure.

Thanks Abhik for sharing Hakeem Saar's video (I don't seem him here though <Sigh>)

Right between Rezang la road and IB..on hilltop..very interesting
https://goo.gl/maps/nFdHBWDQDCmJnSkY7

[RaviB]

Part 2 and conclusion of previous post

Sir, you are a genius.

You have left out no point, yet have made it clear what/whom we are dealing with, with the least verbiage. It is amazing.

It's too bad BRF marks you as "Trainee" when you are more than a "Trainer". You are a "Guru".

The so-called China experts are mostly useless because they don't understand China. Why? Because they spend years upon years cramming the silly language and its insane script instead of learning and observing stuff that matters. And after putting in so much of an effort, they have no other really useful skill or domain of expertise other than China, so they build up stories, situations and interpretations to stay relevant.

OTOH, we should be giving their language the contempt it deserves. Learn it by all means, but do so clinically, like an entomologist learns about insects or a proctologist about rear-ends. Don't try to identify yourself with the insect, stay apart, stay focused, like Ravi sir has done commendably.

Thank you for your kindness. I am certainly no Guru.

I think it is important to respect learning, the language has simple grammar, and there is some nice ancient poetry. But yes, so long as one's purpose and identity is clear, there's no stupid infatuation with their country or the remnants of their culture. Too many China Studies people start fawning on them, which is idiotic. Our knowledge should make us more careful, not more friendly. Studying snakes means learning to control them, not to start sleeping with them in your bed.

[Cyrano]

Makes sense Ravi ji. But I think they are grossly underestimating the capacity of US to unite and fight. US is the most jingo nation on the planet.

How do you think the see Russia - a long term ally of India - in this equation ?

I suppose Europe is seen by them as irrelevant.

[nam]

The PLA is really worried about our infra on LAC. One it firms up our claims, so China cannot get to 1962 won areas and other claimed areas. If PLA has to use force, we not having infra is super critical. And most importantly 300K with good infra & a potential US ally on the rear, at 5K mtr is huge security issue.

The stand off was created to prevent us from continuing the infra work, specially the feeder roads. Keep the LAC boiling to have leverage. If the Chinese feel we are gaining infra/ tactical or strategic like getting closer to US, using leverage of LAC is the way forward.

As mentioned above the Chinis see us inferior, irrespective of the party in power. Congress always did what the Chini asked. The same expectation must have been of the current gov. The PLA forms tactical demands, Chini MFA gives out strategic demands..

However this time.. the plans got derailed by 16 Bihar. The attack must have been to show us our place.. but 16 Bihar showed the Chini their place.

[nam]

Militarily, we need to have two capability. Smash any Chini attack on LAC, not invade tibet, but decimate PLA on entire LAC. Second overwhelm any Pak+ China combo in Pak.

This should be out 2 front war. This doesn't require major tech overmatch, just local kit in numbers.

[John]

Makes sense Ravi ji. But I think they are grossly underestimating the capacity of US to unite and fight. US is the most jingo nation on the planet.

How do you think the see Russia - a long term ally of India - in this equation ?

I suppose Europe is seen by them as irrelevant.

It has been noted by Bolton in his book Trump offered to a pass to China on tariffs and told Xi he justed wanted to be seen strong against China but in reality he is not. Also told them to continue their concentration camp. If China attacks, All China has to do is cause a little Wall Street sell-off and Trump will be pressuring Modi for a compromise.

[RaviB]

Raviji - XiPing is the direct supreme commander of PLA and him sending his trusted General I am assuming means that from Chinese perspective there is a plan that XiPing is personally overseeing.

Xi Jinping is the head of the Central Military Commission, which means he is certainly aware of this and it has his approval. It may also be that the General might be getting too powerful, so it is better to keep him involved outside Beijing. There is probably a faction that supports General Zhao and another who wants him dead, they might both have thought the Tibet expedition a good idea.

Xi's working style is that he doesn't directly oversee operations (at least not publicly). In any case he doesn't publicly associate himself with the people who are the public face of these operations, in case things go wrong.

The best profile of Xi is this one from wikileaks https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09BEIJING3128_a.html

[KJo]

The next time the Chinese make incursions into our territory, the goal must be to push them back and take over some territory that they stole earlier. There must be a cost.

[ldev]

For those suggesting more fantastic ideas like a shortcut to PoK over the Karakoram pass. The Karakoram Pass is the one point on the boundary that there is no conflict about. Secondly, the Karakoram Highway has nothing to do with the Karakoram Pass. The geography of the area makes it impossible to build a road. Thirdly even the KKH is more or less a gesture for Pakistan, nothing seriously economic about it. it is far away from the economic and population heartland of China. Pakistan is a model tributary state, so it is rewarded with favors like the CPEC. From at least 2013, I have been telling anyone who would listen that it's a big joke. Some Chinese companies will get to build stuff and make a lot of money, which will be shared through the hierarchy but trade with Pakistan over the KKH makes utterly, absolutely no sense.

Thanks for this great 2 part write up. It details the Chinese psyche very well. The part about Indians being seen as British tools is also very true. In fact mainland Chinese emigrants that I have spoken to in the West even refer derisively to the people of Hong Kong as, "they think that just because the British ruled them that they have become British. But we are the real Chinese."

The only point that I have an issue with is the quoted part. The push to the DBO has many objectives IMO:

It prevents at least one axis for an Indian push into Aksai Chin and the G-219.

It does allow China to build a road linking G-219 to POK. There will be no trade via this route just as there is virtually no trade on the KKH. This is purely a road for rapid movement of military equipment, logistics and supplies. It will essentially become a "ring road" around Ladakh and into POK allowing China to push military equipment at any point around India's periphery to either attack or defend and to seamless tie up with Pakistan for a joint front to contain India on the north-western borders.

Do not underestimate Chinese civil engineering expertise. They built an island of 3200 acres out of mere shoals in the South China Sea in 18 months. They have built a railway line into Lhasa across permafrost at altitudes of more than 16,000 feet. So I do not think that as a military route they will be unable to build a road across the Karakoram Pass or a tunnel underneath it. Even the BRO is building the backup road to DBO via Sasoma-Saser La which is likely to involve a tunnel at 17,000ft-18,000ft

[RaviB]

Makes sense Ravi ji. But I think they are grossly underestimating the capacity of US to unite and fight. US is the most jingo nation on the planet.

How do you think the see Russia - a long term ally of India - in this equation ?

I suppose Europe is seen by them as irrelevant.

They see Russia as being in their power. Russians don't want to be beholden to them, but currently they see no choice. They would appreciate the chance to get more strategic room for themselves. But with all the sanctions on their economy China is their biggest and most important customer. India used to be a big customer but now has become unreliable. They would like to see a weakened China and would support India, but not openly.

Europe is seen as a useful fool. But EU can play hardball when it has to. They just won the case in the WTO to decline market economy status to China, which means they can use anti-dumping duties and all sorts of trade barriers. EU actually values democracy and will be essential to our economic growth. Germany recently created rules to block Chinese investment in the economy, because Chinese investors are looking to buy weakened companies and steal their IP. The EU is militarily irrelevant but in terms of technology, (e.g. the solar alliance) it will be a necessary partner for us. China sees the unity of the EU as a threat and has been working to split it or have its own interests represented by bought governments.

[Rakesh]

Part 2 and conclusion of previous post

Sir, you are a genius.

You have left out no point, yet have made it clear what/whom we are dealing with, with the least verbiage. It is amazing.

It's too bad BRF marks you as "Trainee" when you are more than a "Trainer". You are a "Guru".

That is the forum software

Once he crosses a post limit, it will change to just BRFite.

[RaviB]

It prevents at least one axis for an Indian push into Aksai Chin and the G-219.

It does allow China to build a road linking G-219 to POK. There will be no trade via this route just as there is virtually no trade on the KKH. This is purely a road for rapid movement of military equipment, logistics and supplies. It will essentially become a "ring road" around Ladakh and into POK allowing China to push military equipment at any point around India's periphery to either attack or defend and to seamless tie up with Pakistan for a joint front to contain India on the north-western borders.

Do not underestimate Chinese civil engineering expertise. They built an island of 3200 acres out of mere shoals in the South China Sea in 18 months. They have built a railway line into Lhasa across permafrost at altitudes of more than 16,000 feet. So I do not think that as a military route they will be unable to build a road across the Karakoram Pass or a tunnel underneath it. Even the BRO is building the backup road to DBO via Sasoma-Saser La which is likely to involve a tunnel at 17,000ft-18,000ft

I think these are very important points which I hadn't considered. Thank your for pointing these out.

[sanjayc]

RaviB, brilliant analysis of the Chinese mind. An eye-opener and very perceptive. Wish India had China study centers which were generating these kind of reports and advising the government and publishing papers, writing in the media. All major powers have such study centers studying countries of interest. This is what Rajiv Malhotra calls Poorva Paksha - reversing the gaze

[Cyrano]

Bolton's claims ring true seeing the unscrupulous character Trump is, and its very alarming. Trump hasn't been a reliable partner to anyone. When I see MEA Jaishankar speak about Trump, he is very cautious. I hope his caution is shared by the Cabinet. I also think Modiji doesn't get carried away by his bonhomie with Trump.

I tend to see the current political disarray and the incompetent thugs surrounding Trump in key positions in the US Administration as a temporary blip. Perhaps because I desire to see the US back on its feet and strong. The last 4 years may have caused more institutional damage than what is apparent.

It would be unwise for India to enter deeper into this conflict counting on US/NATO/Quad help.
I don't think we are.

[sanjayc]

‘Post Galwan battle, Chinese soldiers were in a state of panic’

New Delhi: The psychological evaluation and other related tests done on Indian Army officers and jawans who were in the custody of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) for at least 60 hours, if not more, have given significant insights into the minds of Chinese soldiers who were a part of the action in the Galwan Valley that took place on 15 June.

These 10 men, who include two Majors and two Captains, were in “surprisingly” high spirits and upbeat even after spending more than two days in the custody of China’s People’s Liberation Army.

Inputs accessed by The Sunday Guardian post the debriefing of these 10 men, revealed that the outnumbered and “unarmed” (as the rules required them to be) Indian troops, rather than retreating in view of the huge number of Chinese soldiers, grabbed the improvised clubs and rods that the Chinese were using to batter Indian soldiers, and used the same to kill “at least” 20 Chinese soldiers and officers at patrol point 14.

“This was one reason for the high morale of our troops who came back to us on Thursday. Our men were captured after they chased the Chinese into their area of domination, with the intention to kill them after hearing of the loss of their CO, Colonel Santosh Babu. The Chinese soldiers, seeing the unexpected attack from our men, started fleeing and running back to their area and were followed by our men, who were then captured”, the official stated.

The debriefing of the 10 men has also revealed that the Chinese soldiers were in a state of shock and fear after the Indian soldiers replied with “sheer fighting force” to the treacherous attack by the Chinese. During the next 60 plus hours, the Chinese soldiers were highly anxious about a possible retribution from the Indian side and were in “panic-mode”. “They (Chinese soldiers) were very scared during the time our men were in their captivity. They had witnessed raw fighting spirit just hours before, as executed by a few of our men and the Chinese soldiers were anticipating the same treatment from a much larger number of our men in the next few hours”, said an official source, who is aware of the findings of the debriefing.

According to intelligence agency sources, there was a lot of resentment on Chinese social media platforms such as Weibo over what happened to the PLA men who lost their lives on the night of 15 June. “People are sharing pictures of the funeral procession of Indian soldiers and their cremation which was done with full state honours, and are asking what happened to their own men. Not a single information has been released identifying the names and ranks of the PLA men who died on 15 and 16 June. This is causing a lot of discussions on local social media platforms”, the official added.

These revelations have confirmed the much talked about military hypothesis that the Chinese army, which has not been engaged in any real military operation that involves real opponents—and not just simulated war games which China does “loudly” for the entire world to notice—is more than likely to falter in real battlefields because they do not have any experience of what happens during a real war. “They, for the first time, on the night of 15 June, came across the real face of the Indian Army, which despite being outnumbered, inflicted fatalities on their opponents. The Chinese soldiers were horrified by what they saw”, said the official quoting a portion of the debriefing session. Troops in India and the United States, on the contrary, have been engaged in real wars and battles for decades now.

https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news ... ZV.twitter

[darshan]

It would be unwise for India to enter deeper into this conflict counting on US/NATO/Quad help.
I don't think we are.

Trump or no Trump US was never going to come to help. It's the US institutions of decades that are responsible for present China and all the technology it possesses.

Long ago I ventured into commercial world in US. I was hired to find out how much of the technology that the company hiring me had lost to a now well known Chinese company while doing business with this company. It was multi year project that started with I being hired in as a lackey and being sent to China as a lackey. In my report back, I did confirm that technologies were stolen but in addition I also mentioned about how appalled I'm that the commercial world in US continues to be outside ITAR enforcement even though it should've been under the enforcement. Things like this don't happen across the US unless all institutions were shot to begin with.

[Cyrano]

I've been living in Europe for 2 decades now. I can say that EU population is firmly under China's soft power, and though they don't realise it, they have a whole generation now that has grown up on the drug of cheap Chinese maal. This improves purchasing power for ordinary citizen despite economic growth being weak, so the Govts go along with it. The welfare states of EU cover for job losses due to Industry shifting to China and so even that goes unnoticed.

There is no longer any voice much less a protest against China about human rights, lack of democracy, Uighur muslims, labour conditions, environmental pollution... nothing. Even the anniversary Tiananmen massacre is forgotten. But I do believe EU, especially France and to some extent UK, Germany will support India at least diplomatically, in this conflict. They still value values.

[wig]

3 separate brawls, 'outsider' Chinese troops & more: Most detailed account of the brutal June 15 Galwan battle
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/3 ... 2020-06-21

3 separate brawls, 'outsider' Chinese troops & more: Most detailed account of the brutal June 15 Galwan battle

very informative

[RaviB]

RaviB, brilliant analysis of the Chinese mind. An eye-opener and very perceptive. Wish India had China study centers which were generating these kind of reports and advising the government and publishing papers, writing in the media. All major powers have such study centers studying countries of interest. This is what Rajiv Malhotra calls Poorva Paksha - reversing the gaze

Thank you Sanjay ji.

Around 2000, when I started with my Chinese studies, there were about 40 people learning Chinese per year in all of India. In a country of our size and with a neighbour like China, the lack of understanding was a big weakness. Now even out of those 40, perhaps 20 actually managed to learn the language. And then the majority of them headed into studying useless stuff like 3rd century chinese poetry or communist theater. Then came the Confucius institutes which subverted these people into serving Chinese interests. Now luckily there are some centres for China studies which are actually offering useful advice. The most useful students were Tibetan. They had no illusions about China and worked hard. [removed] Our relations with Taiwan also strengthened around this time and they offered a lot of scholarships which helped Indian students deepen their knowledge of Chinese [removed]

There's apparently a new centre run by Mr. Ranade who was formerly in the R&AW which is offering useful service. I haven't had the opportunity to interact with them though.

Edit: removed some information

[Nihat]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/3 ... 2020-06-21

3 separate brawls, 'outsider' Chinese troops & more: Most detailed account of the brutal June 15 Galwan battle

very informative

This account by shiv aroor and Co. Is a very well put together sequence of events that explain all the fragments of news we have heard till date.

He's certainly one journalist that has come out with a sense of credibility IMHO.

[williams]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/c ... 2020-06-21

Slowly things are falling in place. Any more Chinese mischief in LAC will be met with bullets backed by the full arm of IA and IAF. GOI is already taking stock of what can be done on the trade side of things. Let us see if Chins have the guts to play ball now.

[Cyrano]

First picture of exact location of India-China clash in Ladakh’s Galwan
This is near the mouth of the Galwan River, showing the high ridge lines overlooking the river. The bloody clash between India and China took place on one of these ridges where the Chinese encampment was located about 200 metres down the ridge.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/e ... terstrip-4


This is near the mouth of the Galwan River, showing the high ridge lines overlooking the fast flowing river. The bloody clash took place on one of these ridges where the Chinese encampment was located about 200 metres down the ridge. Many soldiers on both sides fell into the river during the clash. Indian military sources said no firearms were used in the clashes and that most of the injuries were sustained following stone-pelting and use of rods by the Chinese side. A large number of Indian and Chinese troops have been engaged in an eyeball-to-eyeball situation in Galwan Valley and certain other areas of eastern Ladakh for the last five weeks, including in Pangong Tso, Galwan Valley, Demchok and Daulat Beg Oldie in eastern Ladakh.On Monday night, the situation quickly escalated in Galwan into a full-drawn brawl between troops of both sides, resulting in several deaths.




Jai Bajrang bali !

[RaviB]

Excellent part 2 as well. Learnt a lot. Thank you RaviB-Ji.

Thank you for your kindness Vadivel ji

[arshyam]

A request to those of you here who have read my book - `2022, India's two front war'.
Though a hardcore military read meant mainly for enthusiasts, such as this forum, sales are picking up due to the current situation.
Royalties from the book go to our army battle casualties fund.

There is a guy I've clashed with on another forum - possibly Pakistani, who has trashed the book in a review on Amazon.in While the occasional bad review is a fact of life, this is my only bad one and done with malice. If any of you have read an enjoyed it, may I request you to visit that review on
https://www.amazon.in/2022-Indias-two-f ... B07Q29P3M1 and comment or report the poor review, if you feel it is unjustified.

Done, sir.

[arshyam]

RaviB ji's twin party posts need to go into our repository of Collection of Good Parts and Understanding the Chinese. Somehow typing from my phone can't find them. Requesting one of the Mods to help out.

Fantastic posts RaviBji. My pranams

Done: viewtopic.php?p=2441264#p2441264

[Deans]

This account by shiv aroor and Co. Is a very well put together sequence of events that explain all the fragments of news we have heard till date.

He's certainly one journalist that has come out with a sense of credibility IMHO.

Shiv Aroor and Sandeep Unnithan (Defence editor, India today) have good access to the forces, due to of the quality of their work. Hence they are likely to get more genuine ground level info, than some of the more dubious reporters.

[KLNMurthy]

Ravi_B I hope you will write up your 2-part post as an article for publication. Your credentials as a Chinese language speaker make yours a specially valuable perspective.

[Venkarl]

Found this Gem: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZkByrLayqw

Tweeted to major channels, journalists and analysts

[Deans]

X posting from `let us understand the Chinese' thread:

The following books can be downloaded for free on pdfdrive.com They are recent and give a good understanding of China's strategy, threats and weaknesses.

1. The hundred year marathon (China's 100 year plan to overtake the US)
2. Crouching tiger (What China's Militarism means)
3. Red Flag (Why Xi's China is in Jeopardy)
4. China's great wall of Debt (their economic problems)

[KJo]

I think it is important to respect learning, the language has simple grammar, and there is some nice ancient poetry. But yes, so long as one's purpose and identity is clear, there's no stupid infatuation with their country or the remnants of their culture. Too many China Studies people start fawning on them, which is idiotic. Our knowledge should make us more careful, not more friendly. Studying snakes means learning to control them, not to start sleeping with them in your bed.

Wow, beautifully put! Loved the last few lines!

[Larry Walker]

IAF Chief's statement of unusual movement of PLAAF near the border is bit unusual - since the Chinese airfields near the border are on the eastern LAC - on Western LAC there are none. So is he hinting about PLAAF fighters in Skardu ?? Since IAF is surging around Leh/Ladakh region.

[John]

According to intelligence agency sources, there was a lot of resentment on Chinese social media platforms such as Weibo over what happened to the PLA men who lost their lives on the night of 15 June

Most of Chinese top military brass is busy buying condos in the west I.e suburbs of Toronto, last thing they care about is well being of their grunts.

[Kati]

RaviB, brilliant analysis of the Chinese mind. An eye-opener and very perceptive. Wish India had China study centers which were generating these kind of reports and advising the government and publishing papers, writing in the media. All major powers have such study centers studying countries of interest. This is what Rajiv Malhotra calls Poorva Paksha - reversing the gaze

We have CCCS, and BRaman-sir was instrumental in its functioning.

[abhik]

Did any of the Paki 'Swift Retreat' packages take-off from Skardu ? If not - then why not ?

I don't think they have any fighter squadron deployed full time, probably half a squadron for air defence, guris may correct me if I'm wrong.

[khan]

Found this Gem: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZkByrLayqw

Tweeted to major channels, journalists and analysts

To think for decades India put up with this crap.

[Suresh S]

Just watched Zee news DNA live everything is out in the open . Bhartia sena ne chinio ke pant khol de . bahut zor se salo ko mara . Bahut din tak yad rakhenge

[KLNMurthy]

A request to those of you here who have read my book - `2022, India's two front war'.
Though a hardcore military read meant mainly for enthusiasts, such as this forum, sales are picking up due to the current situation.
Royalties from the book go to our army battle casualties fund.

There is a guy I've clashed with on another forum - possibly Pakistani, who has trashed the book in a review on Amazon.in While the occasional bad review is a fact of life, this is my only bad one and done with malice. If any of you have read an enjoyed it, may I request you to visit that review on
https://www.amazon.in/2022-Indias-two-f ... B07Q29P3M1 and comment or report the poor review, if you feel it is unjustified.

Just ordered it.

[krishna_krishna]

Sir thank you for the excellent write up, even though I spend some time in Shanghai, Wuhan , lang fang and Qing Dao could not agree more right on the spot. The way people from provinces are oppressed like license to work in Shanghai, daily wage on factory boards and see who is giving better wage and people line up in early morning still fresh.

However I disagree with some piece, Karakoram Highway may be at this point just a dirt road but the end goal is strategic road completely secure and bypassing the Indian Ocean where there shipping can be interdicted or choked. The way they are doing salami slicing with papers from their loud pieces like India never existed as a country they want complete balkanization of India as a long term plan. That is the strategic objective in long term with short term of nibbling vantage points.