India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

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Larry Walker
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Larry Walker » 24 Jun 2020 15:22

pankajs wrote:
symontk wrote:
No, its doesnt solve anything, Thats where Pakistan comes into picture. See the maps. From my understanding as a civilian, China will attempt to drive us out Galwan valley, DBO and Fingers. Pakistan will put pressure on Siachen and other ridges
I guess you are talking about "Saser La" bypass that I was talking about.

Bakisan has been putting pressure on Saltaro ridge for long without anything to show for their efforts.

Plus any movement/fighting on Saltaro ridge is only by highly trained/specialized forces. The environment is so unforgiving that men have to be rotated after 3 months posting {From memory}. It is not like Bakis can sent their horde of jihadi brigade to pressure India/IA on Saltaro ridge.

So no, Sasoma-Saser la-Murgo route is not going to come under pressure anytime soon. BTW, while the track has been there for a long time, an all weather road is still quite a distance away but once completed it will provide a alternate to the Shyok route to DBO/Depsang plains.

Sasoma-Saser la-Murgo route comes close to the LAC only as it approaches Murgo and it is protected behind another mountain range for most of its path. Though it has its limitations, especially with it crossing over a glaciated mountain pass, it provides a reasonable and worthwhile alternative to the DSDBO route.


Sir - they have nothing to fold - we are not attacking them. They can always withdraw and declare victory that they have taught us a lesson. This is our strategic handicap. And if we are sweating to maintain and reinforce our own positions in the mountains - how do you imagine we will get enough firepower and men and material across those mountains to threaten their logistic nodes ?
The scenario you are describing is they capture some important places of ours and we try to do the same to theirs. But then the problem is that our important places are our mainland with proper civilian population which we cannot leave under Chinese control for even a small amount of time. So if they capture our important locations - we will have to fight them to evict them. When they find it untenable, they will proactively withdraw declaring lesson taught.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby symontk » 24 Jun 2020 15:25

pankajs wrote:
symontk wrote:
No, its doesnt solve anything, Thats where Pakistan comes into picture. See the maps. From my understanding as a civilian, China will attempt to drive us out Galwan valley, DBO and Fingers. Pakistan will put pressure on Siachen and other ridges
I guess you are talking about "Saser La" bypass that I was talking about.

Bakisan has been putting pressure on Saltaro ridge for long without anything to show for their efforts.

Plus any movement/fighting on Saltaro ridge is only by highly trained/specialized forces. The environment is so unforgiving that men have to be rotated after 3 months posting {From memory}. It is not like Bakis can sent their horde of jihadi brigade to pressure India/IA on Saltaro ridge.

So no, Sasoma-Saser la-Murgo route is not going to come under pressure anytime soon. BTW, while the track has been there for a long time, an all weather road is still quite a distance away but once completed it will provide a alternate to the Shyok route to DBO/Depsang plains.

Sasoma-Saser la-Murgo route comes close to the LAC only as it approaches Murgo and it is protected behind another mountain range for most of its path. Though it has its limitations, especially with it crossing over a glaciated mountain pass, it provides a reasonable and worthwhile alternative to the DSDBO route.


Their artillery can hit this road, overall its not giving a good feeling

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby V_Raman » 24 Jun 2020 15:27

We will never proactively retake GB or PoK IMO. We are just not that kind of people. Sorry I have no other way to explain it. China is needlessly inviting our wrath - status quo was the best option for them.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 24 Jun 2020 15:28

symontk wrote:
pankajs wrote:I guess you are talking about "Saser La" bypass that I was talking about.

Bakisan has been putting pressure on Saltaro ridge for long without anything to show for their efforts.

Plus any movement/fighting on Saltaro ridge is only by highly trained/specialized forces. The environment is so unforgiving that men have to be rotated after 3 months posting {From memory}. It is not like Bakis can sent their horde of jihadi brigade to pressure India/IA on Saltaro ridge.

So no, Sasoma-Saser la-Murgo route is not going to come under pressure anytime soon. BTW, while the track has been there for a long time, an all weather road is still quite a distance away but once completed it will provide a alternate to the Shyok route to DBO/Depsang plains.

Sasoma-Saser la-Murgo route comes close to the LAC only as it approaches Murgo and it is protected behind another mountain range for most of its path. Though it has its limitations, especially with it crossing over a glaciated mountain pass, it provides a reasonable and worthwhile alternative to the DSDBO route.


Their artillery can hit this road, overall its not giving a good feeling
I too am a civilian without any connection to armed force or even the police force in all of my known family .... just for the record ...

So why has their artillery not take out our position on Saltaro ridge till date when the exact co-ordinates of our posts are well known to them?

One thing we civilians can do when looking for answers to ask the reverse question just like the above.
Last edited by pankajs on 24 Jun 2020 15:29, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby symontk » 24 Jun 2020 15:28

We need to built series of new alternate roads thru the passes to current DBO road (from around Thoise region) in case (most probabaly) DBO road gets cut off

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby symontk » 24 Jun 2020 15:30

pankajs wrote:
symontk wrote:
Their artillery can hit this road, overall its not giving a good feeling
I too am a civilian .... just for the record ...

So why has their artillery not take out our position on Saltaro ridge till date when the exact co-ordinates are well known?

One thing we civilians can do when looking for answers to ask the reverse question just like the above.


During Kargil war, they did hit the roads with artillery. Both China and Pakistan will keep the conflict below NThreshold and then will do this, My reading on this

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rahulsidhu » 24 Jun 2020 15:32

Karan M wrote:...

The amount spent on defence is at a historic low as a % of budget. We should at least consider some form of QE or whatever way to use our sovereign denominated debt to push for local orders. It will benefit industry and at least still modernize the military and build up our reserves.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... -trend.cms

CV has put GOI debt even further behind. I read someplace we are at 11 years back in terms of debt as % of GDP. Well tough, but losing a war isnt an option either. That will further worsen our economic condition.

...



Very sad to read this.

I just wanted to add a point I have made several times on the Indian Econ thread: there is absolutely no reason why GoI cannot add to its debt to spend more on defence, as long as the spending is done locally on indigenous gear. Indeed, spending on locally designed, engineered and manufactured weapons is really the best kind of fiscal stimulus the govt. can do, given the security situation.

The sad irony of the whole situation is that we have tonnes of think-pieces on how the Chinese economy is about to collapse from high debt/GDP, when the truth is that instead the Indian economy has been collapsing the last few years due to *low* debt/GDP.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 24 Jun 2020 15:38

Larry Walker wrote:
pankajs wrote:I guess you are talking about "Saser La" bypass that I was talking about.

Bakisan has been putting pressure on Saltaro ridge for long without anything to show for their efforts.

Plus any movement/fighting on Saltaro ridge is only by highly trained/specialized forces. The environment is so unforgiving that men have to be rotated after 3 months posting {From memory}. It is not like Bakis can sent their horde of jihadi brigade to pressure India/IA on Saltaro ridge.

So no, Sasoma-Saser la-Murgo route is not going to come under pressure anytime soon. BTW, while the track has been there for a long time, an all weather road is still quite a distance away but once completed it will provide a alternate to the Shyok route to DBO/Depsang plains.

Sasoma-Saser la-Murgo route comes close to the LAC only as it approaches Murgo and it is protected behind another mountain range for most of its path. Though it has its limitations, especially with it crossing over a glaciated mountain pass, it provides a reasonable and worthwhile alternative to the DSDBO route.


Sir - they have nothing to fold - we are not attacking them. They can always withdraw and declare victory that they have taught us a lesson. This is our strategic handicap. And if we are sweating to maintain and reinforce our own positions in the mountains - how do you imagine we will get enough firepower and men and material across those mountains to threaten their logistic nodes ?
The scenario you are describing is they capture some important places of ours and we try to do the same to theirs. But then the problem is that our important places are our mainland with proper civilian population which we cannot leave under Chinese control for even a small amount of time. So if they capture our important locations - we will have to fight them to evict them. When they find it untenable, they will proactively withdraw declaring lesson taught.

1st highlight - doesn't work like that ...

2nd highlight - The logistic node are within range as are the 2 supply routes to the nodes i.e. within 150 km of our last positions on both ends. Resources are already in place to make the push to those nodes and the raod to the nodes have been built and paved by China. No crossing mountains. :D

3rd highlight -- They can't even make a push for Leh forget any important population center. As someone pointed out before to you, even during 1962 war, they couldn't capture Chusul. How many time do you repeat an that has been debunked?

4th highlight -- They can walk away even now claiming to have taught India a lesson but believe me AFTER Doklam and Galwan no one in position to make decision within any country will believe it.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 24 Jun 2020 15:44

symontk wrote:
pankajs wrote:I too am a civilian .... just for the record ...

So why has their artillery not take out our position on Saltaro ridge till date when the exact co-ordinates are well known?

One thing we civilians can do when looking for answers to ask the reverse question just like the above.


During Kargil war, they did hit the roads with artillery. Both China and Pakistan will keep the conflict below NThreshold and then will do this, My reading on this

Where ... On Saltaro??? If not on Saltaro why not when the exact co-ordinates of Indian posts are known? Reference to Kargil is a straw-man when talking of Saltaro.

They can keep <<whatever>> below <<whatevere>> threshold BUT my question still stands, why has Indian Saltaro position not been taken out when they are wellknown to the bakis?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby TushS » 24 Jun 2020 15:46

Times now reporting that PLA pulled back from Galwan valley. Sounds fishy to me.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 24 Jun 2020 15:46

symontk wrote:We need to built series of new alternate roads thru the passes to current DBO road (from around Thoise region) in case (most probabaly) DBO road gets cut off


They are building an alternative road. But, the rocks are one of the toughest or hardest found. Besides, they have to through glaciers.

There are no plans beyond these two.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 24 Jun 2020 15:48

Imho, all this is Xi's horse and pony show.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby arshyam » 24 Jun 2020 15:54

Larry Walker wrote:But then the problem is that our important places are our mainland with proper civilian population which we cannot leave under Chinese control for even a small amount of time.

Which important places in our mainland do you think they can capture?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby AdityaM » 24 Jun 2020 15:57

^ 1 month ago almost every post here spoke about boldly marching into Lhasa. Now the posts have got an almost 360 degree turn!

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby arshyam » 24 Jun 2020 15:57

symontk wrote:We need to built series of new alternate roads thru the passes to current DBO road (from around Thoise region) in case (most probabaly) DBO road gets cut off

The Sasoma-Saser La-Murgo route **is** that alternative route, and building even that is not going to be easy. Please take a look at Google earth and see what other alternative routes appear feasible, especially from Thoise to the DS-DBO road.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby durairaaj » 24 Jun 2020 16:00

I hope the GoI realize that there is nothing called 'limited war'. Only a fight to finish, the Chinese will not bother us again.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 24 Jun 2020 16:01

Most folks cant reason their way through data but mostly rely on gut feeling ... For getting back Aksi Chin we don't need to march to Lahsa. All we need to do in Capture Ngari and Block the G219 just as it exits Kun Lun range and enters Aksi Chin plateau from the Nort-west.

A BIG task but you only need to traverse a maximum of 150 km on both axis from out forward positions in the respective areas.

From yesterdin .. We continue to push resources up to Ladhkh
https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/natio ... wer-102716
IAF airlifts dozens of tanks to Ladakh to beef up firepower
“This is for the first time since 1962 that tanks and mechanised elements have been urgently airlifted to Ladakh to meet operational requirements and beef up offensive and defensive capabilities when both sides are locked in close confrontation,” an officer said.

Tanks already stationed there were also airlifted over a period of time, but that was done under different conditions,” he added.
Tanks already in Ladakh but we are adding to the numbers ..
Though mountainous and extremely rugged, there are some relatively flat areas in the Ladakh sector like Chushal and Demchok where tanks and armoured personnel carriers can be employed for defence as well as offence.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 24 Jun 2020 16:09

AdityaM wrote:^ 1 month ago almost every post here spoke about boldly marching into Lhasa. Now the posts have got an almost 360 degree turn!


I suspect that is a reflection on this Gov and not on the IA.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Larry Walker » 24 Jun 2020 16:10

arshyam wrote:
Larry Walker wrote:But then the problem is that our important places are our mainland with proper civilian population which we cannot leave under Chinese control for even a small amount of time.

Which important places in our mainland do you think they can capture?

Pls ignore the word important - even capturing an Indian village on the border will now trigger a confidence crisis because Modi went emotional and said that not one inch of our land will be lost to Chinese. Now with that very hard position, all capturing of G219 etc goes out of the window and now you got to focus all your might to defend. And in this day and age of OSINT satellite images, there is no hiding or obfuscation.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby KL Dubey » 24 Jun 2020 16:14

This seems the latest news at the front:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-china-agree-on-gradual-verifiable-disengagement/articleshow/76535753.cms

We will verify disengagement with aerial surveillance, it seems.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Philip » 24 Jun 2020 16:17

They're ( like the Gremilns) back! Latest pics either by sat of UAV show that they're back where the debris after we destroyed their lookout post,and are according to one analyst about 100m inside our line of the LAC.

However from the pics we pushed them back by around 5km at the point of the clash as they raced through the valley.
They tried to stop the flow of water of the river for their armoured formations,of the 2 brigade strength forces still poised to attack, to be able to cross the Shyok river and cut the rd.to DBO.
That seems to have been their gameplan in this sector,which the bravehearts of the Bihar regiment pushing the b*****d Chinkos barehanded for 5km!,demolishing their damming of the stream .
Like the Spartans at Thermopylae, the Biharis have etched their incredible feat ,outnumbered by the Chins at least 2 to 1,for the history books! Just imagine what they did, WITHOUT WEAPONS,they shoved rocks up shitworm XI's bunghole!

The report by our troops captured and released,their account of the battle and how the Chinese retreated in total panic,running away like the "yellow",no pardon for the pun, cowards that they are,trembling after the retreat expecting our troops to further pursue and attack them!

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 24 Jun 2020 16:24

Philip wrote:They're ( like the Gremilns) back! Latest pics either by sat of UAV show that they're back where the debris after we destroyed their lookout post,and are according to one analyst about 100m inside our line of the LAC.

However from the pics we pushed them back by around 5km at the point of the clash as they raced through the valley.
They tried to stop the flow of water of the river for their armoured formations,of the 2 brigade strength forces still poised to attack, to be able to cross the Shyok river and cut the rd.to DBO.
That seems to have been their gameplan in this sector,which the bravehearts of the Bihar regiment pushing the b*****d Chinkos barehanded for 5km!,demolishing their damming of the stream .
Like the Spartans at Thermopylae, the Biharis have etched their incredible feat ,outnumbered by the Chins at least 2 to 1,for the history books! Just imagine what they did, WITHOUT WEAPONS,they shoved rocks up shitworm XI's bunghole!

The report by our troops captured and released,their account of the battle and how the Chinese retreated in total panic,running away like the "yellow",no pardon for the pun, cowards that they are,trembling after the retreat expecting our troops to further pursue and attack them!

What do you smoke these days ...

1. I don't think Biharis pushed them back by 5 km. The next day sat pics showed their camp about 500 m behind the clash point. This can easily be spun into IA won the day and Modi lost it at the table even while the actual ground position of the Chinese did not change in the interim.
2. Have you seen the terrain talking up their "armoured formations" deployed along the Galwan and "poised to attack"

Galwan situation remains tense because the Chinese troops can cross the LAC on foot and are still deployed near but there is no way to deploy armour.
Last edited by pankajs on 24 Jun 2020 16:25, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby p_ram » 24 Jun 2020 16:24

NRao wrote:Imho, all this is Xi's horse and pony show.


Towards what end sir? What is the objective that China wants to achieve with this?

a] Distract from domestic pressures on Xi?
---> From inter party rivals? To consolidate his position? Matches with belligerence in SCS, Taiwan, HK and Australia as a pattern to distract yes.
---> From Chinese public reeling from impact of Covid and economic downturn? Given the tight control over media is this pressure really felt on the leader ship? And from reports It looks like the clashes are being down played in local SM and state media.

b] Distract from international pressures on China and Xi?
---> Pressures from USA, UK and EU on Covid coverup. May be distract with localized conflict across multiple locations. But will this change the push from other countries to mitigate the single point of dependency in their supply chains and their plans to diversify and move some of it back home?

c] A new General in charge of Western theater looking to establish his cred for a bigger role in the Party?
---> Would all this be possible without sanction from central committee? And again the timing, does it serve a purpose?

d] Threat of Indian border infrastructure development?
---> The D-S-DBO road works was on from last 2 years and just ablut completed. The alternate route to DBO is also underway. Did this signal to Cheen that India had designs on AksaiChin and so did Cheen want to preempt this?

e] Help Iron bro Pakistan?
---> Was there a perceived threat to POK / GB areas and did Cheen come to aid of Pakistan to postpone / prevent such an act? There was just increased CFVs and responses, There was no buildup by India I guess to indicate this was on the cards.

f] Show India its place post Doklam?
---> Was this planned as a lesson to India for India's Doklam pushback and Cheen's loss of face?

g] Enhanced Salami slicing, which escalated?
---> Again I guess this would not have happened without approval from top. Troops being exercised conveniently in Tibet quickly redirected to Galwan and Pangong lake. And lots of infrastructure construction post escalation. Did they believe that India would back off and accept the new occupation as the normal to avoid conflict given the Covid, economic and numerous other crisis that hit India?

Or may be a combination of all of the above factor or something different altogether. I would like to understand from the guru's here.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby KL Dubey » 24 Jun 2020 16:26

Assuming "disengagement" happens properly, it will now be interesting to see GOI's next moves on defense purchases/ecosystem development/border infrastructure.

It looks like Atal tunnel is open. The Galwan valley is now accessible by bridge if I am not mistaken. In UK, it seems the MBM road is being finished on war footing.

What are other key border infrastructure projects in the northern and eastern himalaya ?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Larry Walker » 24 Jun 2020 16:38

Just asking if we did this analysis - Arjun's ace for it to be deployed in desert is that although it's weight is much more than T-series, it's ground pressure per inch is much lesser than the T-Series. So does the Chinese T-15 give them this capability for Armor to be deployed in valleys like Galwan valley ? I will make it like a armored 105mm mobile gun that can keep up with the ground elements.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby amar_p » 24 Jun 2020 16:39

EPILOGUE:

China has put itself in a bind. Their calculated attack has backfired, hotshot generals have failed to deliver in Doklam and in Ladakh. If they had a plan to make a north south pincer movement from Depsang and Galwan ends to control the area west of Shyok, or do bigger things, thats now come a cropper. India has shown its neither scared nor relenting in its de-escalation demands thus not offering any face saver. The RIC meet between foreign ministers has stood out for the absence of statements about any progress achieved. Rajnath has carefully avoided his Kung-Flu counterpart in Moscow.

Pakis who have committed some level of support like use of their bases or lands for Chinese offensive operations, to send along some jihadi boys to take the first bullets, would have by now realised they have made themselves accessories to a risky gamble by an incompetent PLA. They have nothing to gain except attract more wrath from IA and may end up losing their assets which will be impossible to rebuild given the deep shit their economy is in. The Paki Generals don't want to lose their toys because IA won't just stop at dispatching their boys. Russia's ambivalence is in itself a message. No support to China will come from any other friendly country because they have none.

Domestic resentment at Chinese Govt's handling of casualties is getting vocal. Japan has upped the ante on Senkaku islands. US carrier battle groups are still prowling around. Anti-Chinese sentiment has been stoked in India and GoI has initiated some steps to curb trade deficit. If this sentiment spreads to other countries China has antagonised and they get inspired by India's moves that will hurt some more. Indonesia & Vietnam are stirring up.

Given all this, any offensive doubling down by China with the troops it has mobilised on LAC has not only the risk of going further up the escalation ladder but also falling down with a thud that much harder. Any first use of Air Strikes or Ballistic Missiles will squarely paint China as a rabid aggressor, and not only encourage other world powers to come to India's support in many ways, but will also stoke anti-China sentiments across EU, US, Canada, Australia, NZ, Japan. A call to boycott Chinese goods in these countries who have realised the strategic autonomy lost to China when Covid hot them hard, will signal that the Peking duck is fully cooked.

There is no way forward for China now but to seek a retreat in the form of a "comprehensive border management talks initiative" which by definition implies a long drawn multi-year process, and will provide much needed respite for Xi and some R&R for their altitude-sick troops. Xi can tout it internally as a success by having forced India to sit down and negotiate borders (like he can tout whatever else he pleases), and anyone in the Party who questions the narrative will be exposed as a traitor. Xi can then purge these traitors along with his WC generals and put his smug face back on.

India will tout this as a big strategic & military victory but that's the price China to pay for having poked a tiger. Pakis will be happy that the Chinese who treat them with disdain have themselves done a faceplant and gloat for years that they did much better against India by proxy wars than the headlong plunge by the Hans. Russia will be happy they overshot export targets this year. US & EU will go back to their election muddles and Riviera vacations. Modi & Co will get back to doing what they set out to do, while RaGa will continue to dance to his own besur tunes.

We at BRF will rejoice when Rafales land and Vikrant sails and MK2/AMCA/ORCAs take to sky and rage when OFB strikes resume, HAL deliveries slip, Kaveri sputters etc etc.

All Eez Well... perhaps not today, but will be soon enough.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby chola » 24 Jun 2020 16:40

Rahulsidhu wrote:
Karan M wrote:...

The amount spent on defence is at a historic low as a % of budget. We should at least consider some form of QE or whatever way to use our sovereign denominated debt to push for local orders. It will benefit industry and at least still modernize the military and build up our reserves.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... -trend.cms

CV has put GOI debt even further behind. I read someplace we are at 11 years back in terms of debt as % of GDP. Well tough, but losing a war isnt an option either. That will further worsen our economic condition.

...



Very sad to read this.

I just wanted to add a point I have made several times on the Indian Econ thread: there is absolutely no reason why GoI cannot add to its debt to spend more on defence, as long as the spending is done locally on indigenous gear. Indeed, spending on locally designed, engineered and manufactured weapons is really the best kind of fiscal stimulus the govt. can do, given the security situation.

The sad irony of the whole situation is that we have tonnes of think-pieces on how the Chinese economy is about to collapse from high debt/GDP, when the truth is that instead the Indian economy has been collapsing the last few years due to *low* debt/GDP.


Yes. The chini virus has made it necessary for EVERY government to stimulate. We have to spend moola anyways. The GOI can create orders through HAL and other PSUs and that will ripple throughout the ecosystem that supply parts.

The PRC needs no encouragement when it comes to stimulating its economy through state orders. They just made one of its airlines buy 100 ARJ-21s and C919s.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby darshan » 24 Jun 2020 17:02

1) India has to utilize ground forces and go on offense till 150km if chinese resort to action away from LAC.
2) India has to let them build up on the ground to cause maximum chinese casualties to exploit one child policy side effects. Though I'm not sure that will bother chinese much given their culture and population size but gotta fire shots at any opening available. Rulers would prefer to have less population anyways. It would only matter if all other chinese neighbors started putting up border pressure and suddenly Chinese find themselves running out of people to wear uniforms.
3) Indian economy would be in shambles. Is there a real bottom here?
4) Indian infrastructure would be in shambles.
5) Holding onto any territory won would continue to tax economy.
6) India would be trading brilliance and valor for lack of weapons.
7) would other countries stop by to rebuild India's infrastructure as fast as possible? Similarly for India's MIC. Only if they really want chinese to not be another Nazi Germany.
8 ) would other countries keep pakis, BDs under control?
9) India's internal security would have to be maintained with constant hammering of anti nationals.

This will directly affect the elections. Especially if chinese are selective with their targeting. Modi would be forced to think deep about many things to keep the civilization going. Declaring emergency and not having elections for long time may be on the table. During and post war all the termites and what ails India would have to be taken care of so India can bounce back as soon as possible.

If I'm chinese,
what's the minimum do I need to do to cause a regime change in India?
how can I exploit India's political scene? For example, target GJ but not WB or KL. Only target non green areas.
how can I exploit India's inability to effectively use media? For example, use BMs to cause visuals in anticipation of GoI to fail to explain to Indian public about real gains on the ground.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Dilbu » 24 Jun 2020 17:03

I still think this standoff with India might be a diversion created by China for something big on some other border. If they managed to salami slice and grab some land in the process then that would have been a bonus. CCP will definitely know that GoI will be forced to take action against any encroachment because of Modi sarkar's political posturing. Also ample evidence is available from the way pakis are getting the treatment. They would know that crossing the LAC with banners and pitching a tent is only going to end as a stalemate. The extra backup and troops in the rear is because they do not know if this time IA will go kinetic and launch a dash into AC in response. Apart from the buildup in Depsang, which is now countered by IA, I fail to see what they are trying to achieve here. Unless they want everyone to have their focus fixed on this issue while they are planning something else.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby darshan » 24 Jun 2020 17:07

Tanks already stationed there were also airlifted over a period of time, but that was done under different conditions,” he added.


I'm wondering if the cold climate version of Arjun could have been of a use here. Could it have been a lighter version?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Larry Walker » 24 Jun 2020 17:13

Dilbu wrote:I still think this standoff with India might be a diversion created by China for something big on some other border. If they managed to salami slice and grab some land in the process then that would have been a bonus. CCP will definitely know that GoI will be forced to take action against any encroachment because of Modi sarkar's political posturing. Also ample evidence is available from the way pakis are getting the treatment. They would know that crossing the LAC with banners and pitching a tent is only going to end as a stalemate. The extra backup and troops in the rear is because they do not know if this time IA will go kinetic and launch a dash into AC in response. Apart from the buildup in Depsang, which is now countered by IA, I fail to see what they are trying to achieve here. Unless they want everyone to have their focus fixed on this issue while they are planning something else.


Let's assume Modi is able to retake PoK and GB by this year or next year - once that is achieved do you think anyone could defeat Modi in 2024 ? NO - and this means that Modi is guaranteed to be in power till 2029. For Chinese his vision of India is a major challenge apart from witnessing burial of CPEC and crumbling of Pakis into Bakistan with Gwadar going to Balochistan - and you can guess between India and China, who will the Balochis side with.
Last edited by Larry Walker on 24 Jun 2020 17:14, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Deans » 24 Jun 2020 17:13

pankajs wrote:
symontk wrote:
During Kargil war, they did hit the roads with artillery. Both China and Pakistan will keep the conflict below NThreshold and then will do this, My reading on this

Where ... On Saltaro??? If not on Saltaro why not when the exact co-ordinates of Indian posts are known? Reference to Kargil is a straw-man when talking of Saltaro.

They can keep <<whatever>> below <<whatevere>> threshold BUT my question still stands, why has Indian Saltaro position not been taken out when they are wellknown to the bakis?


There is a ceasefire in place on the Siachen glacier and has been for some years. We control the heights, so if there is a ceasefire violation, our artillery would be able to inflict more damage them theirs.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Deans » 24 Jun 2020 17:17

darshan wrote:
Tanks already stationed there were also airlifted over a period of time, but that was done under different conditions,” he added.


I'm wondering if the cold climate version of Arjun could have been of a use here. Could it have been a lighter version?


The C-17 is capable of lifting the Arjun (with several tonnes to spare). The cold climate (actually high altitude) version is really a special grade of fuel and lubricant, which we have figured out after years of trial and error. My view is that airlifting is more to send a signal. Tanks can currently be transported via the Jammu-Srinagar-Leh highway or via Himachal, across the Rohtang pass.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby symontk » 24 Jun 2020 17:18

From my observation

We are surrounded by 2 opportunistic adversaries. Our key weakness lies in the fact that we dont have large bases in the area to quickly resupply for a strike back. Other weakness is around the road network, entire supply chain controlled by few roads. Lets make our weakness into strengths

The triangle around Thoise, Leh and DBO, need to have more roads, bases and encampments incl storage for key offensive options. By doing this we can control and influence around Karakoram, Galwan valley, Siachen. In the second phase, same plan can be replicated in Galwan valley itself to reach G219

Make big forts out of this

NB: Other point to note is, will all this impact Indus water treaty, like losing Shyok for example?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby RaviB » 24 Jun 2020 17:19

human_sounding wrote:
Towards what end sir? What is the objective that China wants to achieve with this?

a] Distract from domestic pressures on Xi?
---> From inter party rivals? To consolidate his position? Matches with belligerence in SCS, Taiwan, HK and Australia as a pattern to distract yes.
---> From Chinese public reeling from impact of Covid and economic downturn? Given the tight control over media is this pressure really felt on the leader ship? And from reports It looks like the clashes are being down played in local SM and state media.


There was some domestic pressure on CCP ( not Xi personally) due to Wuhan Virus. They tried to reduce it by sacrificing cadre in Wuhan, firing a few important officials in Hubei and crackdown on social media. Throughout Xi kept himself insulated from the situation by delegating responsibility (for failure) and took charge only once it looked like they had CV in control. Judging from SM, the Covid anger is over, also because the CCP pushed the message hard that democracies like Italy, France, USA had completely failed at handling CV. So they should be thankful for the CCP, otherwise the situation would have been much worse.
But this operation began before CV

Distract from international pressures on China and Xi?
---> Pressures from USA, UK and EU on Covid coverup. May be distract with localized conflict across multiple locations. But will this change the push from other countries to mitigate the single point of dependency in their supply chains and their plans to diversify and move some of it back home?


No, not really. They went after Australia for questioning them on Covid and tried to brazen it out. They have taken care of the internal pressure, for the rest of the world, what are they going to do? Write a letter of condemnation?

c] A new General in charge of Western theater looking to establish his cred for a bigger role in the Party?
---> Would all this be possible without sanction from central committee? And again the timing, does it serve a purpose?


This operation extends at least as far back as october 2019, before the CV outbreak and was therefore planned even earlier. I would put the timeline for initiating the planning stage somewhere in 2018, then initial exercises and the beginning of the operational phase with several feint exercises in Oct. 2019. So this is General Zhao's baby. General Zhao needs to show some performance to get into the CMC ( the Chinese version of the Lahore corner plot). He is not a rogue by a long shot. He's closely connected to Xi because of his family background and regional affiliation. This operation has been approved by Xi and definitely would have his inputs.

My guess for the timing is because due to the creation of the WTC and the reorganisation, Zhao must have been busy for a bit, and this is a sequel to Doklam for him. He also has pulled in his trusted people from his earlier posting in Jinan. Even the Chinese soldiers who got clobbered were Jinan Eagle Scouts.

d] Threat of Indian border infrastructure development?


This might have played a role, in that they wanted to have the operation done before the road was complete. They expect airpower to play a major role in any war so preventing full operationalisation of DBO is probably high on their list.

e] Help Iron bro Pakistan?
---> Was there a perceived threat to POK / GB areas and did Cheen come to aid of Pakistan to postpone / prevent such an act? There was just increased CFVs and responses, There was no buildup by India I guess to indicate this was on the cards.


Nope, Pakistan is iron bro in speeches and called minibus in private. They have never helped Pakistan in any war, other than "urging the relevant parties to resolve their disputes through dialogue".

f] Show India its place post Doklam?
---> Was this planned as a lesson to India for India's Doklam pushback and Cheen's loss of face?


Definitely. The actors involved are the same. This operation is better planned. In Doklam opposition by IA was unexpected, here they have planned for a local war.

g] Enhanced Salami slicing, which escalated?
---> Again I guess this would not have happened without approval from top. Troops being exercised conveniently in Tibet quickly redirected to Galwan and Pangong lake. And lots of infrastructure construction post escalation. Did they believe that India would back off and accept the new occupation as the normal to avoid conflict given the Covid, economic and numerous other crisis that hit India?
[/quote]

This operation is much bigger than the traditional salami pizza, which had a fixed template. It's also clear that this time they were looking to provoke India. The Jinan Eagle scouts were brought in to kill Indian soldiers and start a conflict if India fought back.

The timeline suggests that this was planned post Doklam. This is a test run for preparing their soldiers for battle against an adversary they expect to be easily overwhelmed. Why are they doing it? Because they can. Because the world is distracted by CV. This is a bonus. Initially they timed it for the US election. Normally this would have been peak election season for the US. Trump wouldn't have gotten involved in any India-China fight because of that. They think India is a junior ally of the US, so they would be indirectly teaching the US a lesson as well.

The Generals want to try out their toys, their EW, their integrated battle fighting (that's what the WTC was created for). And to scare India out of the US-China equation for the next 30 years. They want to be numbah one by 2050 at the latest. This would all fit.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 24 Jun 2020 17:22

I had mentioned this in one of the posts ...

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... CtPOI.html
India deploys specialised mountain forces to check China’s LAC transgressions

The Modi government is very unhappy that the Chinese President Xi Jinping broke all the promises by not reining his favourite PLA western theatre commander Gen Zhao Zongqi, people aware of the development said.
India has deployed its specialised high altitude warfare forces along the 3,488 km Line of Actual Control (LAC) to repel any transgression by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in either western, middle or eastern sectors.

Top government sources confirmed that Indian Army has been directed to safeguard the LAC from any cross-border aggression by the PLA, which is showing hostile intent by amassing troops in a bid to cow down the Narendra Modi government.

It is understood that specialised forces trained over the past decades for fighting on the northern front have been pushed up to the frontier to impose military costs if the red flag goes up. Unlike the PLA which moves in infantry combat vehicles and paved metalled roads to move, the Indian mountain troops are trained in guerrilla warfare and fighting in high altitude as shown by them in Kargil War.
GOI is signalling that it too will cross the LAC at the time and place of its choosing if this does not dial down soon. Counter action. "All along the LAC" is a hide the actual deployment.

My guess is that plan for forceful eviction from Pangong Tso is "also" in works.
“The art of mountain fighting is the toughest as the cost of human casualties is 10 to each troop of the adversary sitting on a height. The troops from Uttarakhand, Ladakh, Gorkha, Arunachal and Sikkim have adapted to the rarefied heights over centuries and hence their capability of fighting is close quarter combats is without match. The artillery and the missiles have to have pin-pointed accuracy or else they miss the mountain target by miles,” said a former Indian Army chief.
Also to some earlier query raised on this forum ...

Arty and missiles need to have pin-point accuracy else they are not effective in the mountains. Missing by 10 feets can mean the difference between landing on one side of a divide v/s on the other side.
“I have my battalions lined up with armoured personnel carriers and artillery. India will not instigate or precipitate any skirmish but will reply to any transgression. The days of LAC nibbling are over. This is a battle of nerves and India is prepared to wait, come snow come sunshine,” said a senior minister.

Fighting talk ..

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ranneel » 24 Jun 2020 17:27

Another resource to understand the psyche of Chinese is this youtube channel. Its a South African guy married to chinese living in Shenzhen for 14 years.
I think he is now permanently in Taiwan now.
One Example video:[youtube] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-WPkkbq0U4Y [/youtube]
There are more videos which folks can check out. Very interesting.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby darshan » 24 Jun 2020 17:30

Deans wrote:
darshan wrote:
I'm wondering if the cold climate version of Arjun could have been of a use here. Could it have been a lighter version?


The cold climate (actually high altitude) version is really a special grade of fuel and lubricant, which we have figured out after years of trial and error.


I'm thinking more on the lines of which components are specific to the desert warfare and can be taken out. With the information you provided, looks like that IA could have been playing with Arjun near LAC but still decided to not order extras even for defensive role.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Jarita » 24 Jun 2020 17:31

nam wrote:Oh, by the way, notice how we have publicly announced that "due to the crisis, we will be buying Mig29 from Russia and Excalibur rounds from US"..

Imagine having an adversary who receives arms from both the premium superpower of the world, while all you can do is stand there and scratch your nose .. :rotfl:


Chinese take pride in building their own instead of buying from the white man.
To get something from such premium superpowers as you say, we have to give something. On this point, it is not a matter of honor. The doubts within army top brass about indigenous defense equipment and the deliberate sabotage by bureaucrats has to be investigated and pulled up. That is the reason we are here.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Jarita » 24 Jun 2020 17:36

V_Raman wrote:India is nowhere close to even thinking about being a superpower. Honestly - all the govt wants is to be left alone to develop the country I think.


Thank you, yes. There are so many fundamentals to be fixed and the damage of the UPA years is not yet undone.


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