India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

[Cyrano]

Thanks NRao.

What remains unclear is how PLA managed to stop water flow upstream on their side of the LAC, and dry out the river in May, and what IA did to rectify that. There have been reports of culverts, IA demolishing such structures etc. There have been other news reports of the Chinese altering flow of rivers from Tibet to Nepal so one can assume they have some experience doing this.

Seeing the fast water flow in the Galwan river now, building a robust structure to hold the water flow would have quickly lead to the formation of a lake which will not go unnoticed. No Pre-June 15th OSINT images have shown such a structure or lake so far.

[Iyersan]

ks_sachin: the place where we took down their tent & where we lost 20 men is a "disputed territory". No tents allowed there, per the Maj Gen level agreement. So, I'm not sure if we would call it "our territory", but if the tents have come back, then its a clear breach of agreement. Twice in 2 weeks!

Exactly! Not just tent but also boundaries, vehicles and a GUN position.

Nitin Gokhale says these are made by India and on Indian side . He is the only person saying it though
https://twitter.com/stratnewsglobal/sta ... 10433?s=21

[KL Dubey]

Well, this photo dated June 22 from the Nathan Ruser guy is from a very good angle and better resolution than the previous pictures:

https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/12 ... 96/photo/1

It seems the position on the PP14 (south bank of the river) is entirely contiguous with the supply line behind it, and a defensive barrier has been set up on the river bank. Why would this be an Indian position ? Seems Chinese at first sight. Also the pink tarpaulins/sheets appear the same as those seen in other pictures of the Chinese supply line along the river bed that have appeared over the last week.

Similarly, the north bank seems to have an Indian defensive position set up. In other pictures showing more of the north bank, it seems we have set up a supply line.

NaMo was entirely correct on June 16 that there were no intruders left, but they seem to have come back after that. Now we have to see if they go away as per the disengagement plan or whether we have to evict them.

[nam]

It is not ours.

How did we transport all that structure across the water without any truck path visible? That armor pod would require a truck and crane to take it and place it there, across the water?

The Chinis have build a road/access path and the bunker is been placed right at the corner to have max visibility of any build up on our side.

It is the OP.

[Iyersan]

https://twitter.com/sjha1618/status/127 ... 99106?s=21

The enemy is at the gates. The time for illiberals, neoliberals, neoliterals or whatever is over. It is the time for our soldiers now.

I feel Saurav is a very level headed defense expert

[rkirankr]

some people here are dissing our security establishment, PM and what not. I mean aren't they professionals on the job there. Surely they would know better. It is our job to question, right but a forum like this should be involved in dispassionate analysis. Ok End of Rant

After watch Nitin Gokhale's video, one question, how do you identify if a tent is Indian or chinese

[KL Dubey]

^^If its an isolated tent, then I agree it is hard to tell. But there is a lot more there that makes it clear the Chinese have occupied PP14.

I am still unclear as to the value of doing that unless it is a beachhead for an impending attack. The Chinese cannot hold on to that position once the buildup behind them packs up and leaves. Again it seems like they are needling us to fire the first shot.

[rkirankr]

I think I once mentioned earlier, are we , the common citizens, the jingos ready for war. The Govt, Defense forces might be, are we. One or two rockets on population centers, would we still be jingos

[Cyrano]

https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/12 ... 96/photo/1

The image is not oriented north but roughly east.

The triangular area around which the river flows has to be Chinese. Just zoom into the picture and look at which way the straight outward facing walls of the bunker are oriented. One will be firing at/defending against the Indian side from them. There is a thin stonewall structure on the opposite bank facing the triangle, which presumably was made by the Indians to shelter behind and return fire.

So having put up these, the Chinese are unwilling to withdraw since they know Indian patrols will destroy them in the future.

[dineshchaturvedi]

So are you all saying you do not believe the Indian Army and Indian government when they say that there is no encroachment of territory. I am very perturbed by this second guessing. Of course the malicious media arms are responsible for this but facts will be facts and in a month or so the truth will be out. The government has nothing to gain from blatant lies and this group is called Bharat Rakshak OK.
Again, coming back to this group after a long time and it's very troubling to see the perverse sense of "government is lying", "army is bluffing". You can clearly see the divide. There is also a perverse sense of I told you so. Who are these newbies?
In the midst of all this, RaviB's posts are a real pleasure to read.

I think we should not focus too much on this is lying that is lying. If it were only few people that were publishing wrong info, it would have been made fun of. But the reports are accepted by people who are considered pro Modi. This is about India lets not make it about Modi.

I will be more than happy to know all we are hearing is wrong, but I am not reading that anywhere.

[parashara]

It is not ours.

How did we transport all that structure across the water without any truck path visible? That armor pod would require a truck and crane to take it and place it there, across the water?

The Chinis have build a road/access path and the bunker is been placed right at the corner to have max visibility of any build up on our side.

It is the OP.

Well it is conceivable that our boys moved that material in when the galwan wasn't flowing (like on June 16th) or when it was flowing but lightly.

[nam]

I think I once mentioned earlier, are we , the common citizens, the jingos ready for war. The Govt, Defense forces might be, are we. One or two rockets on population centers, would we still be jingos

Once the rockets starts falling, it doesn't matter if anyone is ready or not. The enemy is not going to stop.

So I hope GoI is preparing to give back the Chinese in the same coin.

When the dust settles, our Security establishment must be questioned, why did they think the Chinese will not attack us? I have no issues about missing the intrusion or intel failure. It can happen.

What needs to be questioned is why our domestic MIC has not build to meet the Chinese threat? Who in the establishment thought we can talk through a crisis with the Chinese. Who thought shots will NOT be fired.

[nam]

Well it is conceivable that our boys moved that material in when the galwan wasn't flowing (like on June 16th) or when it was flowing but lightly.

There will lot of truck tracks towards PP14 from our side. Compare the Chinese side with ours. Clearly they have been working towards building a road.

We have been "nice" and maintaining "status quo" and camping.

[williams]

Stepping back a bit and seeing the big picture, I have a very uneasy feeling now. I think the Chinese have figured out that we will not be the first to fire the bullet and they have also figured out all the spots where we can do reverse salami slicing and reinforced those areas. Now they can go on for unlimited negotiations all the while hardening their positions on the ground and it becomes more difficult to throw them back. ultimately it becomes a stalemate with advantage-China. Are we ready to risk war by letting our boys fire the first bullet? If yes do we have a target date or should we go on negotiating/

[Cyrano]

https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/12 ... 96/photo/1

Continuing from my post above, ASSUMING that the red line indeed represents the LAC, the triangular area is a Chinese incursion on Indian area. But if the Chinese do not agree that the spot where the red line is drawn is indeed the limit, which I believe is the case, we have cause for contention & confrontation.

[Iyersan]

I think I once mentioned earlier, are we , the common citizens, the jingos ready for war. The Govt, Defense forces might be, are we. One or two rockets on population centers, would we still be jingos

So we consider that as a possibility and be peaceniks?

[Iyersan]

https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/12 ... 96/photo/1

Continuing from my post above, ASSUMING that the red line indeed represents the LAC, the triangular area is a Chinese incursion on Indian area. But if the Chinese do not agree that the spot where the red line is drawn is indeed the limit, which I believe is the case, we have cause for contention & confrontation.

If RED line is LAC , Then we must go for destroying the bunkers. It’s purely military. If we are not doing it, then there is no political will. BTW I am a staunch supported of Modi.

[Ankit Desai]

Well it is conceivable that our boys moved that material in when the galwan wasn't flowing (like on June 16th) or when it was flowing but lightly.

There will lot of truck tracks towards PP14 from our side. Compare the Chinese side with ours. Clearly they have been working towards building a road.

We have been "nice" and maintaining "status quo" and camping.

We have built few crossover bridges to move & reach fast toward PP14.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/a ... 2020-06-20

Check out images in the article.

-Ankit

[nam]

The Chinis have brought in earth movers, carve out a proper road. I won't be surprised it will be metalled soon.

What if they bring in armor next? Do we have space to do the same?

[Rony]

I am posting this not to make people dhoti shiver but to share what the chinese are thinking and sharing so that others more knowledgeable than me can analyse. Chinese members in their military forum are also wishing that J-20s be deployed to WTC and tested against India.


GT Propaganda comparing Indian and Chinese military capabilities

As Indian infantry, artillery and engineer units are being moved to Ladakh from normally stationed locations, the present amount of troops stationed in the border region has doubled, Indian news outlet The Tribune reported on Saturday.

The Chinese military did not reveal the number of troops it has deployed in the high-altitude border region, but the figure is not expected to be any less than India's.

Indian media reports said that the Indian Air Force deployed US-made C-17, Russian-made Il-76 and An-32 transport aircraft to airlift troops and materials from various places into Ladakh, but observers explained this is because the roads leading up to the border are in a poor condition and land transportation isn't efficient.

In comparison, thousands of Chinese paratroopers from Central China's Hubei Province recently made moves to Northwest China's high-altitude region in only several hours via road, railway and civilian airliners, with no military cargo planes involved. The Chinese Air Force's strategic transport capability has already been demonstrated during the fight against COVID-19, in which domestically developed Y-20 military cargo planes sent troops and supplies across China and to many places around the world.

Infrastructure and logistics support will make a huge difference, observers said.

According to Indian reports, India has also been using US-made CH-47 Chinook transport helicopters to transport howitzers to the frontline, while also using AH-64 Apache attack helicopters for anti-tank missions. Russian-made T-72 and T-90 tanks are believed to be India's main armored forces.

Chinese military experts said these weapons and equipment are no match for their Chinese counterparts like the PCL-181 and PLZ-05 self-propelled howitzers, Z-10 attack helicopters, and Type 15 and Type 99A tanks, as the capabilities of Chinese weaponry in terms of firepower, mobility, level of informationization and tactics are far superior, and more so in high-altitude regions.

The Indian Navy has reportedly dispatched US-made P-8I maritime patrol aircraft to conduct aerial reconnaissance mission, a move Chinese experts said highlighted India's lack of reconnaissance aircraft and surveillance satellite to an extend it needs to use an aircraft designed for maritime use, and its capability is bound to be restrained on land.

Foreign reports also said the Indian Air Force has sent Russian-made Mig-29 and Su-30 MKI fighter jets, French-made Mirage 2000 fighter jets and joint Anglo-French Jaguar attack aircraft to frontline airports. India also reportedly urgently announced procurement of additional Mig-29 and Su-30 MKI fighter jets from Russia.

While these aircraft are popular products on the international market, they are no match for China's domestically developed J-10C and J-16 fighter jets, which are equipped with powerful AESA radar systems and PL-15 beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles. Not to mention, Chinese military's J-20 stealth fighter jets, which has a generational advantage over Indian aircraft, is a gap that cannot be fulfilled by any means, Chinese analysts said.

Indian troops use weapons made from all over the world, which means a high logistical support cost and incompatibility between systems. India will find the maintenance and repairing of these weapons difficult in the battlefield, and the incompatibility means that many of these weapons cannot be used together or share information, and they would have to fight only loosely together in which friendly fire can become possible, a Chinese military expert who asked not to be named told the Global Times on Monday.

The Chinese troops mainly use domestically developed weapons and equipment, and they are trained for maximum efficiency in an integrated system of information sharing, which is a huge advantage in modern warfare, the expert said.

Indian observers often say that today's India is no longer the country of 1962, and that it has developed militarily. The same goes for China, and as a matter of fact, the power gap has grown larger. For instance, China's total military expenditure is more than three times than that of India's in 2019, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. India cannot win a war against China, but Indian nationalists do not believe so, analysts said.

[YashG]

The Chinis have brought in earth movers, carve out a proper road. I won't be surprised it will be metalled soon.

What if they bring in armor next? Do we have space to do the same?

Unless the geography doesnt allow, they will bring in the armor. I mean look at the big picture - thats the plan! Armor and Artillery. IA also probably knows that.

IA top brass is probably far more intelligent and smarter than anything with PLA. Indian Army leadership appreciates non linear thinking, we're exposed to latest war philosophies and our exercise with west are more in number. Yet I think its the peaceniks in Delhi - the disengagement, de-escalation gang/lobby that really doesnt want to prepare for war well. What will IA do then! We should dismantle this peacenik lobby for once and start to prepare for war not de-escalation. (And truth is if we do prepare for war - China will de-escalate!)

I'm fed up with the peacenik/disengagement lobby. We should have been preparing for this since 2010 and yet here we are.

[YashG]

I am posting this not to make people dhoti shiver but to share what the chinese are thinking and sharing so that others more knowledgeable than me can analyse. Chinese members in their military forum are also wishing that J-20s be deployed to WTC and tested against India.


GT Propaganda comparing Indian and Chinese military capabilities

As Indian infantry, artillery and engineer units are being moved to Ladakh from normally stationed locations, the present amount of troops stationed in the border region has doubled, Indian news outlet The Tribune reported on Saturday.

The Chinese military did not reveal the number of troops it has deployed in the high-altitude border region, but the figure is not expected to be any less than India's.

Indian media reports said that the Indian Air Force deployed US-made C-17, Russian-made Il-76 and An-32 transport aircraft to airlift troops and materials from various places into Ladakh, but observers explained this is because the roads leading up to the border are in a poor condition and land transportation isn't efficient.

In comparison, thousands of Chinese paratroopers from Central China's Hubei Province recently made moves to Northwest China's high-altitude region in only several hours via road, railway and civilian airliners, with no military cargo planes involved. The Chinese Air Force's strategic transport capability has already been demonstrated during the fight against COVID-19, in which domestically developed Y-20 military cargo planes sent troops and supplies across China and to many places around the world.

Infrastructure and logistics support will make a huge difference, observers said.

According to Indian reports, India has also been using US-made CH-47 Chinook transport helicopters to transport howitzers to the frontline, while also using AH-64 Apache attack helicopters for anti-tank missions. Russian-made T-72 and T-90 tanks are believed to be India's main armored forces.

Chinese military experts said these weapons and equipment are no match for their Chinese counterparts like the PCL-181 and PLZ-05 self-propelled howitzers, Z-10 attack helicopters, and Type 15 and Type 99A tanks, as the capabilities of Chinese weaponry in terms of firepower, mobility, level of informationization and tactics are far superior, and more so in high-altitude regions.

The Indian Navy has reportedly dispatched US-made P-8I maritime patrol aircraft to conduct aerial reconnaissance mission, a move Chinese experts said highlighted India's lack of reconnaissance aircraft and surveillance satellite to an extend it needs to use an aircraft designed for maritime use, and its capability is bound to be restrained on land.

Foreign reports also said the Indian Air Force has sent Russian-made Mig-29 and Su-30 MKI fighter jets, French-made Mirage 2000 fighter jets and joint Anglo-French Jaguar attack aircraft to frontline airports. India also reportedly urgently announced procurement of additional Mig-29 and Su-30 MKI fighter jets from Russia.

While these aircraft are popular products on the international market, they are no match for China's domestically developed J-10C and J-16 fighter jets, which are equipped with powerful AESA radar systems and PL-15 beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles. Not to mention, Chinese military's J-20 stealth fighter jets, which has a generational advantage over Indian aircraft, is a gap that cannot be fulfilled by any means, Chinese analysts said.

Indian troops use weapons made from all over the world, which means a high logistical support cost and incompatibility between systems. India will find the maintenance and repairing of these weapons difficult in the battlefield, and the incompatibility means that many of these weapons cannot be used together or share information, and they would have to fight only loosely together in which friendly fire can become possible, a Chinese military expert who asked not to be named told the Global Times on Monday.

The Chinese troops mainly use domestically developed weapons and equipment, and they are trained for maximum efficiency in an integrated system of information sharing, which is a huge advantage in modern warfare, the expert said.

Indian observers often say that today's India is no longer the country of 1962, and that it has developed militarily. The same goes for China, and as a matter of fact, the power gap has grown larger. For instance, China's total military expenditure is more than three times than that of India's in 2019, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. India cannot win a war against China, but Indian nationalists do not believe so, analysts said.

An essay written by a class 11 standard kid. Poor the writer wont even get good grades for writing this.

[ramana]

Folks don't make it political.
Have been fair till now.
Will have to hand out instant bans.

thanks, ramana

[nachiket]

From the tweet of detresfa, it appears that PLA has constructed some defensive positions at the site of clash, on our side of LAC.

https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/12 ... 96/photo/1

Embedding the pic here:



This is worrisome. This was the area where the previous structures were destroyed during the clash. The new ones are more substantive and even shows what looks like a pillbox. These guys move really fast when they are building up structures and infra.

[sudeepj]

"Contrary to reports the structures visible in latest satellite pictures are Indian not Chinese. If you missed the livestream with @nitingokhale on the gradual disengagement on LAC flashpoints watch on Twitter Quote"

https://twitter.com/StratNewsGlobal/sta ... 2251410433

[NRao]

This is worrisome. This was the area where the previous structures were destroyed during the clash. The new ones are more substantive and even shows what looks like a pillbox. These guys move really fast when they are building up structures and infra.

China has stated that the Valley is theirs and they are acting. India cannot do the same anywhere. There is an advantage to not painting oneself into a corner.

[LakshmanPST]

If we put aside whether those Structures are Indian or Chinese for sometime, to my Mango man mind it makes no sense to defend that small patch during a stand-off...
From the look of it, there is no access to it from our side except by crossing the river (I do not know the exact geography of the place, but looking at satellite images this is what I infer...)
On the opposite side of the LAC, we have a huge army of enemies...
If things escalate all of a sudden, that post will be the first one to be hit directly by the enemy... The post by itself can not be defended...
Whether it is Indian or Chinese, our priority during a stand-off should be to occupy posts which are defensible and heights...
-
So, if the structures are Indian, well and good... And infact I would see it as a sign of India's resolve to not surrender even one inch of land...
If the structures are Chinese, still I don't mind because the stand-off is still going on and we will fight for it if required...

I would only be worried if the structures come up during peace time and we were caught napping...

[Dilbu]

Is it safe to assume that we cannot dismantle these structures without going kinetic?

[KL Dubey]

^^It looks like it came up basically in 1-2 days (June 20-21). Let us see if it is dismantled by the Chinese now.

[YashG]

From the tweet of detresfa, it appears that PLA has constructed some defensive positions at the site of clash, on our side of LAC.

https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/12 ... 96/photo/1

Embedding the pic here:



This is worrisome. This was the area where the previous structures were destroyed during the clash. The new ones are more substantive and even shows what looks like a pillbox. These guys move really fast when they are building up structures and infra.

If Chinese can stop the flow of Galwan River - that combined with their road means, they can rolldown a lot of armor through this valley opening onto DBO road. Perhaps IA has figured all of these possibilities already. Yes only heights would make sense here. But how do u supply the heights easily?

[ramana]

Please stop second guess the Indian Army. they know what they are doing.
While morons were calling it a brawl, IA cleared the Galwan River intrusion and thwarted a Southern pincer move with bare hands.

[williams]

The Chinis have brought in earth movers, carve out a proper road. I won't be surprised it will be metalled soon.

What if they bring in armor next? Do we have space to do the same?

I would love them to bring armor here it will be a great headline - "Indian Airforce replays Battle of Longewala in the East at 17000 feet after 49 years"

[parashara]

Well FWIW I am going to go with Gokhale's position that those pink structures are ours. Simply because he said those structures were built by us very rapidly after the 15th. And at that time the Galwan was just bed - no water. Also it is unclear from the sat photo what the course of the galwan is further SE of that point. So no confirmation those vehicles etc are chinese.

[nachiket]

If we put aside whether those Structures are Indian or Chinese for sometime, to my Mango man mind it makes no sense to defend that small patch during a stand-off...
From the look of it, there is no access to it from our side except by crossing the river (I do not know the exact geography of the place, but looking at satellite images this is what I infer...)
On the opposite side of the LAC, we have a huge army of enemies...
If things escalate all of a sudden, that post will be the first one to be hit directly by the enemy... The post by itself can not be defended...
Whether it is Indian or Chinese, our priority during a stand-off should be to occupy posts which are defensible and heights...

This is an interesting point overall. If the Chinese set up a post on our side of the LAC which is hard to defend and will get hit immediately in an actual conflict, do we try and dislodge them and set up our own post (which will be similarly indefensible)? Or allow them to make that mistake? A political decision rather than a purely military one to be made here.

[ramana]

If the Chinese can stop the flow of Galwan River - that combined with their road means, they can rolldown a lot of armor through this valley opening onto DBO road. Perhaps IA has figured all of these possibilities already.

Yes, that was what was figured out. Add those trucks, the green uniforms of their special forces all indicate a move to ford the Galwan River there and make a dash for DBO road and on to Leh.
Group Captain Hari Nair(R) says could be the southern pincer, the northern pincer could be from Depsang.

Why don't folks look at Depsang?
Galwan is history.

[NRao]

Click here for Galwan, then click on the globe icon (bottom, right), then on 3D icon (bottom, right). It should place you in a 3D map of the Galwan River area. Use ctrl+cursor to pan around to get an idea of the playground..

[Cyrano]

Yes, the Chinese have matched their stand with intent, got earth movers up there, diverted the water flow as needed to create a road wide enough for trucks to pass and bring men and materials all the way up to the bend in the river and built defensive positions. The pillbox offers good line of sight downstream along the Indian side of the river. Given their construction abilities, they could have done this in a few days having amassed required equipment and men during the months before.

Now, if India is controlling the area upstream beyond the bend today, Nitin Kulkarni's statement is partially correct, the structures are "now" on the Indian side of the LAC. But even then why would we build them to point to our own side? The Chinese have obviously built them.

All that being said, building roads and structures is not the same as fighting wars. They may be better at the former but we have shown we are better at the latter.

[Anoop]

Abhijit Mitra on the "Jaipur Dialogues" states that the structures shown on the patch of land are construction debris from the previous Chinese river diversion activities that had been dismantled to show compliance to the post June 15 engagement. That would explain why it is on that patch of land with roads leading to the Chinese side.

I don't know how we can tell from this angle whether they are fortified defences.

[YashG]

https://twitter.com/TheLallantop/status ... 3038107650

Okay, so based on Shiv Aroor's interview here - Major points here -
1. The fight was taken to Chinese side of LoC
2. >16 Chinese Casualties - Since these many bodies were returned
3. Exchange of prisoners had taken place ( Very Significant!)

[Cyrano]

I seriously doubt the Chinese would move armour down this narrow valley, its simply not wide enough. No way 2 armoured vehicles can pass each other, no where to make a U turn. One break down and everything halts.

The hastily put up road may not be able to withstand the load of 50 ton armour. Moreover, the whole thing can get washed away if there is significant rain or if the Galwan river swells.

Its a temporary road for a specific objective.