India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby samirdiw » 27 Jun 2020 08:07

m_saini wrote:By pay/cost I mean not just locally, but globally. India will come under the direct influence of China in such forums as UN, WHO, etc.
Imo, has to be option 2. No country became truly powerful without paying the necessary cost. We need a kick in the groin to wake up and act like a country of our size should.


Completely agree. Every other country of influence is watching to see how we act. No one will stand for us while they see us being bullied around. Already much respect has been lost by the lack on action by the bosses (not withstanding the action at the local level by the CO and below of 16 bihar) claiming that Chinese are not in our land and the panic running to Russia. We had a good 6 years where instead of focusing on some wasteful projects and shiny toys we should have done a fast track on churning out desi equipment.

If we kick the Chinese and create a world incident that brings both nations close to using nukes even with a severe cost a security council seat is all but assured otherwise we will continue to be told to wait outside and rightfully so.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Sidhant » 27 Jun 2020 08:13

V_Raman wrote:I don’t trust USA to show any favors to India here.

From NRao options

I don’t think we can afford #2 - act alone - China has the MiC to outlast us.

We cannot do #1 - Then we will be slaves

Our only option is #3 - work with China. We don’t spite our neighbor by joining hands with the robbers. We will lose credibility in the entire neighborhood - be it Nepal, Bhutan, bdesh, srilanka.

:roll:
Sirji, I doubt you got the gist of what NRao sir meant by option number 3.

By the way I can understand your lack of trust for unkil and am sure there are food reasons for it but at the same time you trust chin?

When you say we should work with chinis, you are implying that our present and past governments have not already tried that. I am curious to know, what do you think our PM was trying to do with almost 18 bilateral meetings he has with Mr. eleven?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 27 Jun 2020 08:16

OT for this thread, please move it to an appropriate one.

2019 :: India-China cooperation important to world stability, development: Indian FM

:shock:

BEIJING, Aug. 13 (Xinhua)


During Jaishankar's visit to China, he co-chaired the second meeting of the China-India high-level people-to-people exchanges mechanism with Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, agreeing to further promote friendship between the two peoples.


China and India are the world's only two emerging economies that boast a population of more than 1 billion, respectively. "Our relationship is so big that it is no longer a bilateral relationship. It has global dimensions," Jaishankar said.


I am a huge fan of Jaishankar and Doval. But, today, I need to state that Jaishankar is humbled.

Clearly China did not view the relationship the way India did. Ladakh is the result. There cannot be any confusion about it. Time for analysis is over.

The way I see it is that India has FM followed by Services, China has Services followed by FM (much like Pakistan). So, Indian FM, who is Sr to Indian Services is talking to and trying to build confidence with his counterpart who is subservient to the PLA. The PLA tells their FM what to say and do and Indian FM is getting (has got) snookered.

IMHO, the era of trusting China is gone for at least a couple of generations.

We don’t spite our neighbor


But your neighbor has 'spited' you.
Last edited by NRao on 27 Jun 2020 08:20, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ks_sachin » 27 Jun 2020 08:17

V_Raman wrote:And it is not as bleak as everyone is making it out to be. We just want to be left alone to develop our country. China truly does not covet these lands from the sense of expansion. They want to secure this side to take on the colonials. We should arrive at a deal with them IMO.

What planet do you live on?
Do a deal when they can do what they want with impunity!
A fair deal is always amongst equals....

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby AshishA » 27 Jun 2020 08:22

Every bit of Chinese influence needs to be wiped out just like we are doing with their virus. China is a enemy state. There should be no doubt about it.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Ardeshir » 27 Jun 2020 08:30

V_Raman wrote:And it is not as bleak as everyone is making it out to be. We just want to be left alone to develop our country. China truly does not covet these lands from the sense of expansion. They want to secure this side to take on the colonials. We should arrive at a deal with them IMO.

Sir, what world are you living in? "We just want to be left alone to develop our country", and you think China will let us do that?

Why didn't China leave alone Tibet and let them develop their country? Why didn't China leave alone Vietnam and let them develop their country? Why didn't China leave alone Philippines and let them develop their country? No deals are possible with the Chinese. They are the enemy state, and have been arming our enemies for a long time.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ramana » 27 Jun 2020 08:42

V_Raman wrote:I don’t trust USA to show any favors to India here.

From NRao options

I don’t think we can afford #2 - act alone - China has the MiC to outlast us.

We cannot do #1 - Then we will be slaves

Our only option is #3 - work with China. We don’t spite our neighbor by joining hands with the robbers. We will lose credibility in the entire neighborhood - be it Nepal, Bhutan, bdesh, srilanka.


That would be your own #4

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Guddu » 27 Jun 2020 08:57

NRao wrote:

Dr. APR
@drapr007
·
43m
#BREAKING : Earthquake has jolted Ladakh. Magnitude of the earthquake has been measured to be 4.5 on the Richter scale. The epicentre is located 200 km Northwest of Kargil. The epicentre is located 25 km deep within Earth's surface.


The paranoid me, thinks "tactical nuke"

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Y I Patel » 27 Jun 2020 09:00

I tried using Baidu maps today, but not very impressed. Resolution of satellite imageries much lower than google, and boundaries switch off at high resolution just when you can start making out features. So I gave up after a while.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 27 Jun 2020 09:01

Nothing new, just a review of current events.


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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rs_singh » 27 Jun 2020 09:02

Typical quotes ― "More enemy than I had ever seen in World War II"; "Like a crowd pouring out of a football stadium"; "No formation ― just mass"; "Suddenly, the whole hillside stood up" ― graphically illustrate its veracity.
So overall, since the lizards don't quite value their men the same way we do, I wouldn't put it past them to have used the tactics as have been recalled by men who fought them.


Thank you so much ardeshir Ji and please no sir for me. I think the Admiral also recommended a book though I haven’t been able to find a copy yet.

Some folks here suggested the mighty SHA armed with SLR and carbines in 62. I find that claim extremely doubtful. Even the Army was using M1 carbines as late as 1960 in Vietnam leave alone the PLA. I would be surprised if they were equipped with anything more than soviet Mosin Nagant bolt action and ppsh41 smgs, but of course the SHA has 10ft soldiers that are bulletproof and rise from the dead like the Night King on dragon. I am already dhoti shivering. As for an alliance with PRC, my god, :roll: :!:

Another question that I’m of late worried more about: we are massing more strength in a smaller area making us ripe pickings for EN counter force action. I’m sure the mil have gamed this. My personal opinion is that the SHA is looking for a quick face saver to send a message, declare victory and withdraw quickly. A first attempt at this was denied to them in the Galwan.

Nrao Sir there is a 4th option. Egress into their territory in the East and pretend nothing happened. Honestly though, I don’t like these games being played. We have to confront this evil regime at some point and for that we will have to fight and fight we will.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 27 Jun 2020 09:07

Nrao Sir there is a 4th option. Egress into their territory in the East and pretend nothing happened. Honestly though, I don’t like these games being played. We have to confront this evil regime at some point and for that we will have to fight and fight we will.


Sir (you set the precedent :) ), That actually would be #2 in my worldview. Nonetheless a great choice. However, I am not yet convinced about "we will". I certainly hope so.

I just noticed the mostly talkative twitter feeds are recycling twittes.
Last edited by NRao on 27 Jun 2020 09:10, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Sonugn » 27 Jun 2020 09:09

Chinese perception of India via past crisis:-

https://twitter.com/rohan_mukh/status/1 ... 7902995458

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby TandavBrahmand » 27 Jun 2020 09:12

NRao wrote:
Guddu wrote:Nice video by major arya



Very sad to watch that vid.

Someone who, over the years, had so much josh/confidence is now pleading. For sure the national situation is in dire straits. No denying or camouflaging it - considering all these years he addressed us, the common man.


To be honest, the video was bakwas and was beyond his "paygrade". It was a bit rich for him to provide history, background and frankly useless suggestions. Giving a bungalow to Dalai Lama in Delhi? Lol.

It was more for the TRP/audience than it was a message to PM. Every point he has made, don't you think, GOI has not considered? They have far more data points than folks on this forum hyperventilating and providing option inputs to the govt. I am 100% sure that armed forces are providing inputs, intelligence and govt is working in tandem to do the best for India.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rs_singh » 27 Jun 2020 09:15

NRao wrote:
Nrao Sir there is a 4th option. Egress into their territory in the East and pretend nothing happened. Honestly though, I don’t like these games being played. We have to confront this evil regime at some point and for that we will have to fight and fight we will.


Sir (you set the precedent :) ), That actually would be #2 in my worldview. Nonetheless a great choice. However, I am not yet convinced about "we will". I certainly hope so.

I just noticed the mostly talkative twitter feeds are recycling twittes.


Ah! Act alone and pay a lot. I was thinking more along the lines of act alone in the East and sit nice and pretty, in the meanwhile conduct a joint patrol with the Navy and JSDMF to “promote and ensure a open and free SLOCs and a rules based order” or some such thing. I had noticed that the IN had forward deployed based some reports in the media. No more word on the Navy yet.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Guddu » 27 Jun 2020 09:20

NRao wrote:
Guddu wrote:Nice video by major arya



Very sad to watch that vid.

Someone who, over the years, had so much josh/confidence is now pleading. For sure the national situation is in dire straits. No denying or camouflaging it - considering all these years he addressed us, the common man.


I think you have misunderstood the video. He is asking Modiji to take steps which will hurt China...going to war is always the last resort. The govt has not taken the type of non-kinetic steps that will put pressure on China.The govt ofcourse has all this information, the PM gets a ton of input, but sometimes can end up making wrong decisions. eg MMS and track II recommendation to withdraw from Kargil etc.
PM Modi is known to read social media, and sometimes ordinary Indians can directly reach the PM.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby SriKumar » 27 Jun 2020 09:28

It was funny to see Maj. Arya (R) earnestly tell Modi to follow Chanakya and not Sun Tzu. Does he not know about Amit Shah? And he talks in the video about going back to vedas due its being India's root. If there is one PM steeped in a knowledge of India's ancient past it is Modi (and PVN before that). Modi reveres and has presented the Bhagavad Gita to foreign leaders on many occassions.....which may be relevant here. Arjuna did not want to fight a war, and then Krishna convinced him to.
Last edited by SriKumar on 27 Jun 2020 09:32, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 27 Jun 2020 09:32

Rs_singh wrote:
NRao wrote:
Sir (you set the precedent :) ), That actually would be #2 in my worldview. Nonetheless a great choice. However, I am not yet convinced about "we will". I certainly hope so.

I just noticed the mostly talkative twitter feeds are recycling twittes.


Ah! Act alone and pay a lot. I was thinking more along the lines of act alone in the East and sit nice and pretty, in the meanwhile conduct a joint patrol with the Navy and JSDMF to “promote and ensure a open and free SLOCs and a rules based order” or some such thing. I had noticed that the IN had forward deployed based some reports in the media. No more word on the Navy yet.


JMSDF? IF so, then that is in the quadrant of the Quad. On FONOPS, which should encompass your SLOCS, rules-based, etc, Indian FM has repeatedly declined - IMHO to appease China. Clearly that did not work and frankly reviving it will certainly invite a very sharp response from China.

In short, as far as I can see, India has painted herself into a corner by all these CBM types of decisions. Recall that when India decided on a Quad meeting China issued a 'demarche' (I hate French words). And, when China last week pretty much deployed at three Pakistani airstrips right at the Indian border all India said was China is not playing by the rules.

I think Indian politicians and Babus need to get out of the way. Let the Services uphold maryada. And, let the chips fall where they may. It is a double-edged sword and can cut either way. I just do not see a reason to sit nice and pretty. This is a rough and tumble game.

?????

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby AshishA » 27 Jun 2020 09:35

We need to make boycott Chinese goods a long lasting movement. Meaning it shouldn't fizzle out after all this calms down.

We need to find videos, photos, creative memes, YouTube videos etc to ensure that not one Chinese company makes a profit here. And share them as much as we can. And spread the message as far as possible. Even to far flung villages.

We must not wait for the babus sitting in the ministries to change the policy. They will be back to chalta hai attitude when this all will be over and won't care if country is at risk. We need to take it on our hands. If we won't buy the goods, then how will the Chinese sell? Sonam Wangchuk had made a great video on how we can really hurt China just by doing our duty as citizens.

Moreover, Govt must feel the pressure of the people to boycott Chinese maal. Then only we may see some action. But I am doubtful of that which is why I am suggesting a people's movement.

Lastly, the real face of the Hans needs to reach people. People need to know what these people think of us and what their agenda and sinister plan is. The posts here from RaviB and others had helped me understand these Hans. And I believe a lot of Indians will also understand who their enemy is. And how for about 70 years they have been using both inside and outside forces to undermine and dismember our country.

This incident must become a turning point in how Indians perceive China.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rs_singh » 27 Jun 2020 09:45

NRao wrote:
Rs_singh wrote:


Yes, JMSDF. Typo on my end. Also, what exactly is CBM?

While I agree with everything you’ve said, the only reason behind the sitting nice and pretty in sugarland from own POV is, after a while, the media gaze will turn elsewhere and that in itself will allow geisha a face saver to withdraw without looking weak. Till then, we do to them what they do to us and not say a word.

After that, our favorite “babus” can release a statement to the effect of “ mutual friendship and respect, old civilizations, peace loving :(( :(( “ and call this chapter good, double down on own MIC. Though I suppose If history has anything to teach, then I’m in for another disappointment. There is nothing greater than our ability to self delude.

Also, quick question, there is a self proclaimed defense analyst who after digging appears to be a hotel management graduate (?) whatever that is supposed to be doesn’t sound very defense related. According to this gentleman, PRC built a damn on the Galwan. He’s also made some other rather far fetched statements. Any credibility to these assertions? Appear highly doubtful to me.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 27 Jun 2020 09:48

SriKumar wrote:It was funny to see Maj. Arya (R) earnestly tell Modi to follow Chanakya and not Sun Tzu. Does he not know about Amit Shah? And he talks in the video about going back to vedas due its being India's root. If there is one PM steeped in a knowledge of India's ancient past it is Modi (and PVN before that). Modi reveres and has presented the Bhagavad Gita to foreign leaders on many occassions.....which may be relevant here. Arjuna did not want to fight a war, and then Krishna convinced him to.


Much to unpack.

Maj may or may not know about Amit Shah. That is not the point. There is a hurt in his voice that is global, not personal. The solutions he proposes may or may not be relevant, but he speaks for the honor of his fauj and platan. Only those who have been there can talk to that.

Also, it is one thing to go through the scriptures and yet another for the scriptures to go through you. I will leave it at that.

BTW, Amit Shah, where is he?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby SSridhar » 27 Jun 2020 09:53

V_Raman wrote: . . . China truly does not covet these lands from the sense of expansion. They want to secure this side to take on the colonials. We should arrive at a deal with them IMO.

V_Raman, aren't you aware of Chinese history and beliefs? They are the Colonials. China has been an Empire with the Son of the Heaven as the Emperor ruling the Middle Kingdom. Anyone outside its realm are barbarians and uncooked. It is the duty of the Son of Heaven to cook them and for that they have to be assimilated and at least taught Chinese language and some culture. So, it has to be in a continuous expansionist mode.

Except for the inner core, the vast peripheries of today's China were acquired only in the 20th century. Tibet, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Manchuria. CPC is the latest dynasty and Xi is the current Emperor.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rs_singh » 27 Jun 2020 09:57

SSridhar wrote:
V_Raman wrote: . . . China truly does not covet these lands from the sense of expansion. They want to secure this side to take on the colonials. We should arrive at a deal with them IMO.

V_Raman, aren't you aware of Chinese history and beliefs? They are the Colonials. China has been an Empire with the Son of the Heaven as the Emperor ruling the Middle Kingdom. Anyone outside its realm are barbarians and uncooked. It is the duty of the Son of Heaven to cook them and for that they have to be assimilated and at least taught Chinese language and some culture. So, it has to be in a continuous expansionist mode.

Except for the inner core, the vast peripheries of today's China were acquired only in the 20th century. Tibet, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Manchuria. CPC is the latest dynasty and Xi is the current Emperor.


Ssridhar sir, please, I would love to remain uncooked than be cooked by the GSHA. :rotfl: :D

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 27 Jun 2020 10:00

Rs_singh wrote:Also, what exactly is CBM?


Hmmm........ May I recommend Xi's Reform School? On page 1 of the intro book, it says Confidence Building Measures. An acronym that has been embedded into the DNA of the IFS (Indian Phoren Service as an FYI). No IFS grad can graduate without reciting CBM in his/her sleep. Sacred stuff.

Also, quick question, there is a self proclaimed defense analyst who after digging appears to be a hotel management graduate (?) whatever that is supposed to be doesn’t sound very defense related. According to this gentleman, PRC built a damn on the Galwan. He’s also made some other rather far fetched statements. Any credibility to these assertions? Appear highly doubtful to me.


You did not see the sat picture? The route the IA took?

The sat pictures looked good - after all, they came from that NZ guy, they have to be good/authentic. WRT to the lines, I can draw them too I would think. But, I will wait for the authentic book to come out in a few years and download a free pdf.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Ardeshir » 27 Jun 2020 10:05

Rs_singh wrote:
Another question that I’m of late worried more about: we are massing more strength in a smaller area making us ripe pickings for EN counter force action. I’m sure the mil have gamed this. My personal opinion is that the SHA is looking for a quick face saver to send a message, declare victory and withdraw quickly. A first attempt at this was denied to them in the Galwan.

I might be in the minority here on this (while also being wrong), but with my interaction with young Chinese over the past 15 or so years, I have formed the belief that the PLA will never opt for anything more than a short, sharp war.
The things we take for granted, such as having a sibling, is so truly exotic for them. I have had so many Chinese tell me how much they wish they had a brother or a sister. On top of that, if we think that the 'Raja Beta' stereotype of mothers pampering Indians sons is over the top, you have to see how it is with the Chinese.
Some of the Superior Han Army's problems with bribery for selection and lowered physical standards have already been documented here. On top of that, we have also learnt about how their officers aren't necessarily tactically astute when the 'script' changes. And given the internal pressures GEISHA Xi faces from the military, the nouveau rich middle class, the peasants who can now work in a factory for a higher wage than be conscripted as cannon fodder, I would wager that the days of the Hans willing to kill off millions of their own to achieve their strategic objectives are gone.

Or am I missing something here?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ks_sachin » 27 Jun 2020 10:05

Rs_singh wrote:
NRao wrote:
Sir (you set the precedent :) ), That actually would be #2 in my worldview. Nonetheless a great choice. However, I am not yet convinced about "we will". I certainly hope so.

I just noticed the mostly talkative twitter feeds are recycling twittes.


Ah! Act alone and pay a lot. I was thinking more along the lines of act alone in the East and sit nice and pretty, in the meanwhile conduct a joint patrol with the Navy and JSDMF to “promote and ensure a open and free SLOCs and a rules based order” or some such thing. I had noticed that the IN had forward deployed based some reports in the media. No more word on the Navy yet.

Rs_singh what is of strategic importance to the Chinese in the east that will give us leverage?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby SriKumar » 27 Jun 2020 10:06

NRao wrote:
SriKumar wrote:It was funny to see Maj. Arya (R) earnestly tell Modi to follow Chanakya and not Sun Tzu. Does he not know about Amit Shah? And he talks in the video about going back to vedas due its being India's root. If there is one PM steeped in a knowledge of India's ancient past it is Modi (and PVN before that). Modi reveres and has presented the Bhagavad Gita to foreign leaders on many occassions.....which may be relevant here. Arjuna did not want to fight a war, and then Krishna convinced him to.


Much to unpack.

Maj may or may not know about Amit Shah. That is not the point. There is a hurt in his voice that is global, not personal. The solutions he proposes may or may not be relevant, but he speaks for the honor of his fauj and platan. Only those who have been there can talk to that.
I think you may have possibly mis-understood the video's language/tone and his purpose. He is seriously offering sincere advice to Modi. It is pretty clear in the first 2 minutes. He is telling Modi .... ye khatra tala nahin abhi tak...aur shayad talega bhi nahin :) (After that much of what he says is preaching to the choir. I agree that what he said would be useful to the aam nagrik, if that were to have been his audience).
Last edited by SriKumar on 27 Jun 2020 10:24, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rs_singh » 27 Jun 2020 10:10

NRao wrote:
Rs_singh wrote:Also, what exactly is CBM?


Hmmm........ May I recommend Xi's Reform School? On page 1 of the intro book, it says Confidence Building Measures. An acronym that has been embedded into the DNA of the IFS (Indian Phoren Service as an FYI). No IFS grad can graduate without reciting CBM in his/her sleep. Sacred stuff.


Gotcha. Apologies, I only partially understand some of the phrases used specifically in this context. Still learning. I suppose these would be akin to what we would refer to as information and education ops. This where we’d go hand out chocolates and mineral water to the first COB we’d see and make sure someone took a picture documenting it.



I sense some sarcasm at the NZ comment of yours! Haha. Anywho, I did look at the images but I found no dams. Given their history in the SCS they are more likely to dredge and deepen the river to broaden the pathways than build a damn. Again, I really don’t know. But dam doesn’t pass the sniff test and spitball says dredge. Also I hear folks in East Turkestan have reviewed Xi’s reform school you speak of and have rated it 1 out of 5 stars. So I’ll pass, thanks.
Last edited by Rs_singh on 27 Jun 2020 10:17, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rs_singh » 27 Jun 2020 10:14

ks_sachin wrote:
Rs_singh wrote:
Ah! Act alone and pay a lot. I was thinking more along the lines of act alone in the East and sit nice and pretty, in the meanwhile conduct a joint patrol with the Navy and JSDMF to “promote and ensure a open and free SLOCs and a rules based order” or some such thing. I had noticed that the IN had forward deployed based some reports in the media. No more word on the Navy yet.

Rs_singh what is of strategic importance to the Chinese in the east that will give us leverage?


Oh an old monastery or two come to mind. I suppose the heights on the other side dominating the passes looking both ways would surely be a nice camping site.

An old adage comes to mind - the tank is made of iron, the man has nerves of steel.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby LakshmanPST » 27 Jun 2020 10:14

I'm pretty sure the Generals would have war-gamed all possible scenarios with the Chinese...

I see one possible reason for no immediate escalation from Indian side... As many posters were saying, Chinese MIC has the capacity to outlast Indian MIC...
So, in the worst-case scenario of a bloody Attrition Warfare, we may be able to defend them only for 5-6 weeks before the difference in MIC capability kicks in... So, in this case, we might prefer to escalate sometime in September or October and end it just before the snows come in and Chinese have to demobilize... Once demobilization happens, immediate re-mobilization will be more difficult... Lot of factors come into play...

I still think Govt. would prefer things to deescalate right now without a war...
But if we have to fight, I guess they will try to delay this for another 2-3 months atleast just to avoid the worst-case scenario... I don't think Govt. will wait until 2022...

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby sajaym » 27 Jun 2020 10:25

V_Raman wrote:...They want to secure this side to take on the colonials...


I'm tempted to agree with this line, and this line only. Because, of all it's bigger enemies only India is the most C****ya (as per them). So what do they do? They want to take as much land as possible and straighten out the LAC to their advantage and convert the LAC into an LOC. Once they've done that, they've secured the back door. So they'll put a minimum force level for guarding the new LOC and move the rest of the forces towards the eastern seaboard to focus on their real enemies - US, Japan, Australia and whoever rest. The Indians (after much dhoti shivering and yellowed dhotis) will naturally be happy to see the back of the Chinese and we can proclaim victory, light diyas, bajaao taalis AND quietly go back to beating each other over COVID, NRC, whatever else. So there could be a real possibility that all this huffing and puffing by the dragon must be to ensure that we don't bite them in the back when they are fighting in the east...I mean think about it, they're business minded, there is jack s**t for them in these mountains except the CPEC. SCS is where their money is. Only if they lose there (total defeat - which is unlikely), do they have to consider this side for moving their goods through CPEC. So this current drama is them trying to secure the CPEC in the unlikely event that they do lose dominance in their eastern seas.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby chaitanya » 27 Jun 2020 10:34

^ I'd like to point out that many posters have discussed this scenario: a long drawn-out confrontation with attrition warfare lasting weeks with the Indian MIC failing to keep up with the Chinese.

Let's assume that happens. However, one aspect is missed in these analyses: by week 2 India would have already won the perception battle. Having a stalemate after 2 weeks of fighting the 'invincible Han army' will put an end to the '100 ft chinaman' syndrome facing many people. It will seriously shatter the faith of numerous Chinese citizens who think they can simply swat Indians away and other countries will start perceiving china as weaker than it projects itself to be. This would be a tremendous psyops failure and loss of face for the Chinese, a complete humiliation in their minds, and completely unacceptable.

I believe its more likely that China would want swift and massive action that (they believe) will provide rapid gains rather than a protracted war.

Also, I would like to remind some posters of this tactical brilliance:
Image
They don't always have the best ideas...

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby arshyam » 27 Jun 2020 10:48

Rs_singh wrote:
NRao wrote:
Sir (you set the precedent :) ), That actually would be #2 in my worldview. Nonetheless a great choice. However, I am not yet convinced about "we will". I certainly hope so.

I just noticed the mostly talkative twitter feeds are recycling twittes.


Ah! Act alone and pay a lot. I was thinking more along the lines of act alone in the East and sit nice and pretty, in the meanwhile conduct a joint patrol with the Navy and JSDMF to “promote and ensure a open and free SLOCs and a rules based order” or some such thing. I had noticed that the IN had forward deployed based some reports in the media. No more word on the Navy yet.

Just a suggestion with regard to context. Army and Navy (pls note the capitalisation) in this forum refers to the Indian Army, and Indian Navy. US services can be called USN, US Army, USMC, USAF, etc. Just so we all are on the same page.

I for one, was confused for a second when you said this:
Rs_singh wrote:Even the Army was using M1 carbines as late as 1960 in Vietnam leave alone the PLA.

for I was under the impression that you had served in the (Indian) armed forces. So you can perhaps see where my confusion came from.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ldev » 27 Jun 2020 10:51

People talk about China's MIC and manufacturing base. But the table below illustrates just how big of a gap China has opened up with the rest of the world. It lists the value added via manufacturing as a percentage of global value added for manufacturing. China today accounts for 28.4% of global manufacturIng output, the top position which it reached when it overtook the US in 2010. What is remarkable is that China's manufacturing output is more than than all of the other countries in the table put together other than the US. This illustrates just how much of a mountain the rest of the world has to climb to de-fang China. And in the context of the India-China border issue it also illustrates that China's manufacturing sector is almost 10X larger than India's and just how long it will be able to sustain a conventional war.
Image

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby AshishA » 27 Jun 2020 10:57

The lack of Indigenous weapons and MIC of India is discussed a lot here. And many are expect the govt to take steps but due to various reasons they don't. Except for cosmetic changes and after that they go back to phoren imports.

The question I want to ask all the gurus here if there any way we can create a Indigenous weapons advocacy group to pressurise govt into giving indigenous weapons a chance and change their import policy? Or target a list of individuals who are purposely derailing and sabotaging indigenous weapons effort of the country?

When I was reading all these posts lament about how indigenous weapons are being ignored, I thought what can we do as individuals and as a group to change this. Tbh they (babus, some people in military etc) will continue with the ways things are unless and until someone forces them to change. And moreover Modi is just one Man he can't do it all and also fight BIF forces simultaneously, we must also help him in whatever ways we can.

Lastly, the war with China is certain. To win the upcoming war, we absolutely need indigenous weapons and a robust MIC. But a lot of the gurus here assume that it won't happen due to our phoren import addiction and chalta hai attitude towards national security. But the way I see things, if the problems are due to the eternal slumber of the govt, then it's our duty to wake them up. Make them realise, if they want to secure their Kursi then they better wake up.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rs_singh » 27 Jun 2020 11:07

Ardeshir wrote:
Rs_singh wrote:Or am I missing something here?


To me, and this is a guess, appears to be the dilemma in believing that the EN would act like you would . From that perspective, yes, you are right. They “should not” go for anything more than a limited and localized conflict - I assume this is what you mean when you say short and sharp? I don’t foresee any conventional conflict between two adversaries not being”sharp” or “intense” or myriad other names I’ve learned only on this forum.

However, their CNP dictates a long drawn out conflict with an adversary like India and let’s be honest when has the CCP cared for lives. So who knows.

Arshyam,

Gotcha. I’ll try my best, though in the context of my writings hopefully it’s clear who I’m referring to. Apologies. FYI, US Army is just USA, army reserves are USAR and army national guard is the state, for is instance TX army national guard would just be TXNG.
Last edited by Rs_singh on 27 Jun 2020 11:38, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Sonugn » 27 Jun 2020 11:08

India keeps vigilant eye on Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir as Chinese air activity increases
India is keeping a vigilant eye on airbases in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK) after a Chinese refueller aircraft landed in Skardu last week. Also, Chinese air activity has increased opposite Eastern Ladakh, raising the possibility of PLA Air Force (PLAAF) using airbases in PoK.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ldev » 27 Jun 2020 11:10

AshishAcharya wrote:The lack of Indigenous weapons and MIC of India is discussed a lot here. And many are expect the govt to take steps but due to various reasons they don't. Except for cosmetic changes and after that they go back to phoren imports.


Put all public sector defence undertakings from HAL to OFB to the shipyards under the direct control of the respective services with full authority to fire workers and close down individual units in case of non performance.

Give the services a budget within which they have to adhere to to be spent either on imports or domestic purchases.

Allow the private sector to participate in every area of defence manufacturing.

And let the public and private sector compete based on price.

Set up a separate national security organization consisting of defence experts, technology experts, retired service folks who will evaluate the minimum force levels needed to meet national security objectives. This body will replace the moribund Defence Ministry which is supposed to perform this function but does not.

Evaluate the services against the achievement of force levels benchmarked against national security objectives. This will ensure that given minimum force levels required to attain national security objectives, the services will not take the easy way out and buy a handful of silver bullets with the budget allotted but will be constrained to buy a mixture of imports as well as domestic products.
Last edited by ldev on 27 Jun 2020 11:15, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby syam » 27 Jun 2020 11:14

k prasad wrote:Fukche ALG is just about 30 km from Demchok, and the airstrip stops just feet short of the Chinese claim line, at least from what Google Maps suggests. Given the orientation of the runway, I doubt we can place it any closer to the border, lest our aircraft become sitting ducks for SAMs or AAA.

But the terrain is flat enough for a longer strip, if need be, and a paved one at that.... we'd need at least a 4 km (preferably 5 km) long paved runway for hot-and-high operations though, especially in winter, if the runway is wet. Even with reverse thrusters (or empty load on takeoff) etc, landing and takeoff at 14k ft, in hot-and-high conditions on a wet runway is no joke.

The idea is to place few SAMs or something similar as near as possible to their main airbase. Given our track record, Fukche ALG must been buried under sand by MoD babus by now. That's why we can go for better one. If we can set up proper base, it can serve as early warning station too.

If there is no airstrip at DBO, we would be having similar discussion about it too. I bet MoD wouldn't have bothered to build one.

Since MoD and MEA trying their hardest to give the whole area to chinis, some one should ask for these things. We are not going to have another brave airforce guy landing his ac at some half usable airstrip in demchok.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby syam » 27 Jun 2020 11:30

It's not about understanding tsunju or vedic wisdom. It's common sense. If we really want our guys to patrol all of these areas, we better provide good infra to back them up.

DSDBO road and Durbuk-Chushul-Demchok road. Both can be made into single Highway. Another road to connect Durbuk to Leh. Main base at Leh and two other bases at extreme ends of main highway. Multiple smaller bases at different locations connected to the main highway. Each patrolling point can have a basic post. Connected to the main road by small roads.


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