India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

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Prem Kumar
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Prem Kumar » 01 Jul 2020 23:16

ldev & VikramS: lets not fall for the China line that "16 Bihar" went rogue at the heat of the moment! That's the enemy sowing seeds of "bheda" between the civilian leadership & military.

Its B.S.

Proof is that, since that incident, Modi has given emergency powers to the Services. He has also given them the freedom to act as per their judgement and not wait for political clearance.

All this points to the political leadership giving a pat on the back of the military & empowering them further!

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rs_singh » 01 Jul 2020 23:19

Anoop wrote:
Rs_singh wrote: We only stand to lose from this delay because defensive troops can only remain on alert for so long, after that complacency sets in. Attacking troops don’t have this dilemma.


The experience of Op Parakram would suggest the exact opposite.

Coming back to the main thrust of your argument viz. the Chinese need to initiate a short, sharp localized conflict, my question is - why? Going by reports, they have built infrastructure (that may or may not be manned) on what is now disputed territory both in Galwan Valley and on Fingers 5-8 at Pangong Tso. The structures have been deliberately made visible to satellites to send a message to the Indian public e.g. the Chinese map outline. This has only increased media scrutiny of the lack of Indian response, goaded by some channels, anchors and guests. All of these have been made possible because the border agreement on non-use of firearms has held back Indian retaliation against these buildups.

What would China hope to get by initiating a shooting war that it already hasn't?


1. Incorrect. That op was a mobilization disaster. We lost all the initiative by taking 6 months. Besides the end state there was not a conflict but deterrence.
2. China wants a pure and simple land grab. All else is hogwash. That objective remains Unachieved, for now. Everything else you mention is a bonus that the EN is getting. For instance , media scrutiny has been known to force the military hand when faced with public pressure with disastrous outcomes.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 01 Jul 2020 23:22

Manish_Sharma wrote:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_GDP_of_China

China's GDP in 1962 was 47.21 Billion Dollars
But I can't find India's GDP in 1962, please help me.


Manish I found China at $47.2 bn and India at $42.1 at countryeconomy.com.

But per capita we should have been ahead of the Chinese.

Added later:
Yes China pet capita was $70 vs India at $90

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Anoop » 01 Jul 2020 23:28

Rs_singh wrote:1. Incorrect. That op was a mobilization disaster. We lost all the initiative by taking 6 months. Besides the end state there was not a conflict but deterrence.
2. China wants a pure and simple land grab. All else is hogwash. That objective remains Unachieved, for now. Everything else you mention is a bonus that the EN is getting. For instance , media scrutiny has been known to force the military hand when faced with public pressure with disastrous outcomes


1. Do you believe the PLA deployment now allows them to take Indian territory beyond what they have? If so, where? And how would they be able to hold that land against counterattacks?

If not, how is their situation different from India's during Op Parakram?

2. Exactly, media scrutiny has forced poor decisions. Why do you think the Chinese are not playing that hand and hoping that India will start the shooting war? Secondly, what in your calculus is the price China is willing to pay to get the land grab? At the moment, they have paid very little. Why would they not continue this game plan next summer and the summers following that?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby fanne » 01 Jul 2020 23:30

Sir ji, maaf kar do. Economic economy kya laga raha hai. TSP is 1/10 th of in economy and below in per capita, have you found them giving up. Yaar open a wet towel thread and lets collectively dhoti sibber there. Abhi to sirf jung hai. Ramyan, the war was fought by two exiled prince with a monkey army and defeated the mightiest army in its home, in the Mahabharata, Pandvas had 7 akshauhinis to 11 of Kauravas and still won. The men of Chandpuria were 120 with few recoilless gun against 2000 TSP soldiers and 45 tanks, yet they won.

Economy leke kya ukhad lega. Yes in war material and logistics have a role to play, but they are not the end in itself. Plus, we are not bad either.
Last edited by fanne on 01 Jul 2020 23:32, edited 1 time in total.

VikramS
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby VikramS » 01 Jul 2020 23:31

Prem Kumar wrote:ldev & VikramS: lets not fall for the China line that "16 Bihar" went rogue at the heat of the moment! That's the enemy sowing seeds of "bheda" between the civilian leadership & military.

Its B.S.

Proof is that, since that incident, Modi has given emergency powers to the Services. He has also given them the freedom to act as per their judgement and not wait for political clearance.

All this points to the political leadership giving a pat on the back of the military & empowering them further!


What the government tells the CCP and what it tells the Armed Forces do not have to be the same.

It is not that the CCP negotiates in good faith.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Larry Walker » 01 Jul 2020 23:41

It's not that simple - if India undertakes GB/PoK campaign then it would avoid war across IB to keep it in the domain of reclaiming lost territory and not be labelled as imperialist. But if Pakis join Chinese to create a 2-front war in Ladakh - then nothing stops IA from unleashing strike corps towards RYK - as China will ensure that Pakis don't go nuclear for fear of nukes falling on their main-land.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby VikramS » 01 Jul 2020 23:47

Larry Walker wrote:It's not that simple - if India undertakes GB/PoK campaign then it would avoid war across IB to keep it in the domain of reclaiming lost territory and not be labelled as imperialist. But if Pakis join Chinese to create a 2-front war in Ladakh - then nothing stops IA from unleashing strike corps towards RYK - as China will ensure that Pakis don't go nuclear for fear of nukes falling on their main-land.


No one cares about justifications or morally correct.

You can create justifications to suit whatever you want to do. Just look at China.

What is working for India is that almost the entire world wants the CCP to get a bloody nose. Their behavior during Coronavirus pandemic has costs hundreds of thousands of lives and very few are happy with them.

Somehow the CCP feels that they can buy/blow their way out of this. What they forget is that the rules of the game are constantly changing.

The bigquestion right now is whether India will get sufficient military support to give the CCP a bloody nose. That is where the biggest uncertainty lies.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Larry Walker » 01 Jul 2020 23:52

Agree to an extent - maybe India purposefully delaying and reaching out for help to get a measure of its so called allies or quad - as Swami Tulsidas said - Dheeraj, Dharam,Meet aru Naari, aapat kaal parakhiye chaari !!!

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ldev » 01 Jul 2020 23:55

Chinese Army promotions announced - loyalty key factor

This article from December 2019 is very informative for the way it explains the internal workings of the promotion system within the Chinese political system in general and the PLA in particular. Corruption and bribery is endemic in the system. Xi has tried to address this but has met resistance from the senior ranks. The officers serving on the front lines and on frontier locations feel that they are bypassed by those in administrative jobs at the center of power in Beijing and feel betrayed.

Not only that, but the PLA has lacked firm guidelines about who can be promoted and when. The absence of such rules meant that political and military leaders could abuse the system and twist it to their advantage, promoting sycophantic or loyal subjects, for example. Or, alternatively, those with high aspirations can buy their way up the chain of command.

Such scandals have plagued the PLA, and General Fang Fenghui, a former Chief of Joint Staff and CMC member, was found guilty of this in February 2019 and sentenced to life imprisonment. His case alone ensnared more than 300 military personnel, including 70 in senior posts in mostly logistics or political commissar posts. Of these, 44 were from the Beijing Military Command where Fang served from 2007-12, these having offered bribes in exchange for promotions.

Since Xi assumed power in 2012, approximately 200 senior generals have been jailed or forced into retirement. In all, well over 13,000 military officers were found guilty of corruption and punished from 2012-17 alone.


The PLA has long operated a dual system between ranks and job posts, one that is riddled with loopholes and opportunities for corruption and which the Communist Party of China (CPC) has used to its advantage. Indeed, officers rising through the administrative ranks were often favoured for promotions simply because they had strong relational ties with senior party or military leaders.

This usually came at the expense of promotions for combat formation leaders posted far from the seat of Beijing power, and they often felt resentment at being passed over despite serving on the "frontlines". With the PLA not having engaged in combat since its ill-conceived foray into Vietnam in 1979, combat unit leaders were at a distinct disadvantage when it came to career advancement.

Naturally, this dual system within the PLA acts as an incentive for personnel to avoid combat units during their careers, which defeats the whole purpose of having a military, and also leads to inexperienced managers reaching the highest rungs. Not only that, but such leaders have not earned the respect or trust of the rank and file who serve in frontline units.


All of this means that the PLA needs a good external shock to bring the house of cards tumbling down. Not some small skirmish on the border, but something that will provide a shock to the system as a whole.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby k prasad » 02 Jul 2020 00:11

Rs_singh wrote: RaviB,

I must strongly object to you calling their Air Force, SHAAF. The correct acronym (according to me) should be SHAAT. SHA Air Tailspiners. Pun Intended. I guess, doubly so. :twisted:


The F is for Farce, sirjee :-P

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 02 Jul 2020 00:12

Let me try and put this economy discussion in perspective.

  1. Is China going to let us be in peace?

    No. They need a subservient state that will kowtow to them line they kowtowed to the world during their century of humiliation. Expecting them to change is line expecting a tiger to turn vegan.

  2. Is it acceptable for us to allow China's rise unchallenged? What would be so bad?

    Playing the devil's advocate. We're really should think why can't we accept the fact that China's is going to be preeminent? If we have accepted the US foundation of world economy, culture and politics for the past 30 years, why can't we accept China? Is it because deep down we're racists and suffer from the same awe of white skin that the Chinese do? Other than pride what would we lose? Don't talk about freedom or economic reasons. Even today we're not free.

    Look, I am not arguing about throwing in the towel line the Congress discussions have over years. But we need a rational objective discussion of this. Keeping aside pride. Talk in numbers. Only then will we be prepared to answer the most important question listed at the end.

  3. If we need to fight the Chinese, when's a good time?

    This is not baking a cake or sowing wheat. The best time is when your enemy is not expecting it. Or if he expects you to fight then fight him at a place of your choosing. The best tinder is now. As we keep waiting for our economy to touch 3.2 trillion, of Dassault delivering 3 more Rafael or S400 to be flown down, the enemy is changing facts on the ground.
    Time to fight its now. We are behaving like the sissy who comes back home promising to fight the bully after he gets 18 inch biceps.

  4. Most critical question- What is our objective?

    The question which no government seriously answered. And what even we at BRF have danced shy off. Because we have been conditioned by too many years of non violence Kool Aid. And been like an ostrichwith head buried in the sand.

    We need to quantify what we gain by taking over Tibet (yes taking over) and POK. What we gain in monetary and resource terms. Of what are going to be the roadblocks. What needs to be done.

    Till we don't do this we will go from crisis to crisis forcing our men in uniform to behave like thullas trying to evict illegal lands grabbers.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby RaviB » 02 Jul 2020 00:20

Rs_singh wrote:I must strongly object to you calling their Air Force, SHAAF. The correct acronym (according to me) should be SHAAT. SHA Air Tailspiners. Pun Intended. I guess, doubly so. :twisted:


That's a good idea. I propose the slightly snappier Superior Han Air Traders (unless the mods have an objection?)

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby m_saini » 02 Jul 2020 00:24

Mukesh.Kumar wrote:Let me try and put this economy discussion in perspective.
<snip>


I feel like you need to put more thought into this. Doesn't "a) Is China going to let us be in peace? No." answers "b)Is it acceptable for us to allow China's rise unchallenged? What would be so bad?"?

Why would it be acceptable for us to allow China's rise unchallenged when they're not going to let us be in peace? Doesn't make any sense.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Mort Walker » 02 Jul 2020 00:31

Neither the CCP or PLA are to be trusted. The way they’ve handled the flooding of the Three Gorges Dam and resvoir are precarious. They’ve opened up the flood gates and flooded out entire towns in Hubei province killing hundreds or more. Some 40,000 cubic meters per second of water has been entering into its reervoir. No state or central govt. in the history of India has been so callous toward its people. Don’t think for a moment the PLA will show any humanitarian ideals. Even the lying TSPA RATS talk about insaniyat.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby KLNMurthy » 02 Jul 2020 00:33

chola wrote:
Raveen wrote:

Actually, he isn't wrong, that is what we have historically done. Dokalam was a shock for the Chinese and this is a way to test our new found resolve. Unfortunately, it won't be without bloodshed.


1) The idea that Cheen expects anyone, especially India, to act like a vassal is poor intelligence at worst or naive at best. Whom have they gotten to act like a vassal to them? Vietnam? Taiwan? Oz? NOBODY bows down to them. Why would they expect thus of India? They don't. Which brings up the next point,


I think Shivshankar Menon is not wrong when he says we are expecting the Chinese to behave like us. We may have a wrong expectation and when it is proved incorrect, move to adjust or change that expectation (in this case, "X should be our vassal.") What if the Chinese are lacking in this quality? In that case, they would behave exactly as we have seen them do: Demand that India or Viet Nam be their vassal, try some bluster, some force, and when it doesn't work, double down and keep doing the same thing.

The Chinese are not 10 feet tall, nor are they super-rational hyper-calculating brilliant Overminds. We Indians spend all our time berating our country and system and leaders for real and imagined flaws, and implicitly assume that no one else has their own flaws and problems.

Do this thought experiment: Imagine you are General Boohoo, brilliant strategist and clear thinker. You are in a strategy meeting with Emperor Eleven in the chair, along with a bunch of other small and mediocre minds who got to the meeting less due to their professional and intellectual abilities and more due to their ability to kiss the Imperial behind. (General Boohoo is, shall we say, a statistical outlier, a freak in that he has real abilities and also managed to not rub anyone important the wrong way up to this moment in his career.)

Emperor: Hey fellas, India should be taught a lesson, if we hit them a couple of times, and shout that the US will not come and help them, and keep telling them that they will benefit greatly from being our vassals and slaves, they will leave the wrong the path they are following, and learn their proper place as the vassal of the Middle Kingdom. Then all will be fine.

Everyone else at the table: Hail the mighty and brilliant Emperor Eleven, Hail the Middle Kingdom, we will do exactly as you say, and bring glory to the great Han People forever. The Indians will be begging to eat our leftovers by next week, and building temples to the Great Emperor Eleven.

General Boohoo: Er, if I may, I don't think the Indians will ever accept being our, or anybody's vassals. And they are really tough and resourceful. It is a really bad idea to make them angry, when they are not angry with us, and in fact quite friendly.

Chamcha no. 1 at the table: Boohoo is brilliant no doubt and has his own opinion. But let us move to the next topic on the agenda, the corruption problem.

Chamcha no. 2 at the table: On that topic, I have evidence that Boohoo once took a pencil home from work and didn't bring it back. We must have zero tolerance for Corruption. All in favor, say Aye (looking adoringly at Emperor)

All: "Aye".

Bang!

(General Boohoo is shot for Corruption, and his family gets a bill of 20 zillion renminbi for the cost of the bullet.)

I can imagine a meeting in India, chaired by Antonia Maino working somewhat like the above, except maybe for the shooting. Can you honestly imagine a Modi-chaired Cabinet Committee on Security meeting working like that?

The Chinese have emotional limitations and constraints (aka in-the-box thinking) like everyone else when analyzing and planning. We, apparently have our own, in that we blithely declare, "oh the enemy will never have thinking flaws like that, nobody will be like that", when we actually mean, "I am not (or don't think I am) like that."

There are plenty of examples in history, where leaders refuse to let go of flawed assumptions even after those assumptions are called into question by experience. On BRF itself, we have expounded plenty on how Hindu rulers lost to Muslim invaders by never adjusting their tactics or strategy or beliefs that the enemy will follow the same rules as they do. Seems to me that we are doing exactly that, here in this strand of this thread.

Shivshankar Menon worked for a Congress government and has plenty to answer for. We don't like him. Does that mean we should give priority to our dislike over thoughtful and sensible consideration of what he has said in the interview and just dismiss it out of hand, or worse, embrace the opposite of what he is saying?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby V_Raman » 02 Jul 2020 00:41

China has us where they want - confused - so unable to act. Mukesh's questions are straightforward. They are knotting us up.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby KL Dubey » 02 Jul 2020 00:54

chola wrote:
1) The idea that Cheen expects anyone, especially India, to act like a vassal is poor intelligence at worst or naive at best. Whom have they gotten to act like a vassal to them? Vietnam? Taiwan? Oz? NOBODY bows down to them. Why would they expect thus of India? They don't. Which brings up the next point,

2) the reason they militarized the SCS is because no one listened to them. If Vietnam backed off. If the Philippines didn't take them to international court. They might have enjoyed de facto control of the SCS without the expense of creating entire islands and creating an opening for the US to intervene,

3) This brings us to the third point. They know we won't back down. They also know since Doklam that we would counteract them with force if necessary. But because of Doklam, the chinis also no longer believe they can make do with a skeleton (but budget-friendly) force in Tibet. This buildup today is analogous to the SCS when they understood that their opponents won't listen and they needed to come in force to bully. To create fait accompli on the ground.

Modi is probably right that they did not "invade" India but they took the gray areas and will take more because just like the seas, the mountains are not natural human habitats and you need machines to support you there. They will always go back their strengths which are infrastructure, industry and logistics. Those are what makes them a power. They can't fight for sh1t and they know it and had stay away from fighting for decades on end.

We can either play to their strength or to ours.



^^^Amidst all the noise and speculations, the above post by "Chola" is excellent and I would like to quote his entire post.

However, I believe his point #3 above needs further discussion.

Nobody plans for expensive "diversions" or "to teach country a lesson" just by deploying forces and keeping them basically idle. Those who believe that the Chinese "assumed we won't retaliate" are naive. They are surely bullyish and obnoxious, but not stupid to that extreme.

After several weeks I am coming around to believe that the Chinese are basically worried about (specifically in the Indian context):

(A) Their decades of investment in Pak/CPEC etc becoming worthless. I.e., they are worried that India was/is planning to retake POK and GB. We are quickly consolidating in J&K with terrorism being razed to the ground one district at a time. POK return has now been officially declared as the only potential dialogue topic with Pak. And with Ladakh now directly controlled by the Union, it is a clear statement that these areas are permanently ours and can be used for staging thrusts into GB and POK.

(B) The rapid pace of infrastructure build all along the border on our side in recent years.

In terms of our response:

(A) Military Counter: right now we appear to be in a defensive "holding mode" deployment. I am sure pushing the Chinese off a few sq km at Pangong, Depsang, and Galwan is not difficult if the order is given. I agree the PLA is a paper tiger and does not intend to fight. But it is worth taking the time to understand the bigger picture. At the same time border infrastructure is progressing quickly. As a citizen I feel this strategy is "Very Good" for now.

(B) Economic Counter: As "Suraj" mentions, we have a whole range of options to screw the Chinese. Seems like we using them one at a time in a graded manner. So far I would rate the progress on this as "Good".

(C) Diplomacy: So far, other democratic countries have been quite helpful and this cooperative spirit seems to be intensifying. Forget the loads of BS on foreign media/social media...these people don't matter two hoots. Overall I rate this aspect as "Excellent".

(D) Industrial Build (including MIC): It's a golden opportunity to invest in our manufacturing including MIC. Understandably the first weeks have concentrated on ensuring supplies for our imported defense equipment and expediting current orders. Rather than chest-beating on the last 50 years of "import is best" policies, let's look to the future constructively. Some indigenization and import substitution has been pursued but we would all like to see a lot more on that front. A lot more can and must be done. On BRF we can only analyze based upon public reports. So far I view the documented progress on this as "Fair".

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Manish_Sharma » 02 Jul 2020 01:07

Mukesh.Kumar wrote:
Manish_Sharma wrote:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_GDP_of_China

China's GDP in 1962 was 47.21 Billion Dollars
But I can't find India's GDP in 1962, please help me.


Manish I found China at $47.2 bn and India at $42.1 at countryeconomy.com.

But per capita we should have been ahead of the Chinese.

Added later:
Yes China pet capita was $70 vs India at $90


_/\_
Thank you very much.

So despite almost equal GDP, and more PER CAPITA INCOME, Nehru-KrishnaMenon-General P.N.Thapar (*Son of Kunj Bihari Thapar, father of Karan Thapar) managed to "hand communist china a resounding victory.

*Kunj Bihari Thapar gave "general diar" a Saropa and 1.5 lakh rupees reward for doing Jallianwala Bagh Massacre the same evening in Golden Temple.

So we had Nehru who in college days wrote to his father that he might leave "Cambridge" due to too many Indians & move to Oxford as there are less Indians there.

Communist army hater Krishna Menon as Defence Minister.

Upright Competent Patriotic General Thimmaya humiliated and removed and KUNJ BIHARI THAPAR's son Pran Nath Thapar made Army General.

Also Nehru delibrately allowing army to be massacred without Boots-Bullets and DELIBRATELY NOT USING AIR FORCE.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby KLNMurthy » 02 Jul 2020 01:17

We have the analysis of the China-India conflict from a Chinese perspective, right here, it has been posted before on BRF.

https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/china ... akh-clash/

Why do we need so much endless guesswork, reading of tea leaves, Kremlinology and so much back-and-forth show of cleverness on our part to figure out what the Chinese are thinking? Just listen to what they are saying, and how they are saying, be it in official statements or Global Times or People's Daily, or scholarly / semi-scholarly reports like the above. In the modern world, strategic doctrines of countries are not a big secret, at least not among the peer group of experts and policymakers. They are telling us the whole time, maybe we can't listen because our brains are too full of our own self-conceptualizations.

They essentially want India to not go into the US camp, but can't figure out how to ensure that (after all, we can say, ok we won't go with the US if you settle the border, and when that is done, promptly break our word and go with the US, because that is what they, the Chinese, would do). So, they want to keep pressuring us militarily and using psyops so that we will be psychologically under their thumb. They tried the military pressure with 300 soldiers, didn't work, got a lot of deadly pushback, so now they will try with 3000 or 30000 or 30 zillion along with shiny scary equipment, till they hit the point that will make us capitulate. What that capitulation looks like is an India that is shouting back at China, but is too scared to have a real war, and is too careful to formally ally with the US, while at the same time allowing China to colonize our economy more and more, till we are de facto vassals.

It is a workable strategy. With one basic flaw in that it has no path for the scenario in which India doesn't buckle psychologically, and counterattacks economically with resolve and consistency, while holding the line militarily. They don't have such a path because of their in-the-box thinking: they are unable to conceptualize a universe in which India and China are genuine partners with free and friendly exchange of goods & services as well as ideas and culture. In their mental box, either India is below China or China is below India. It is a zero-sum game, there is no third way.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Ashokk » 02 Jul 2020 01:26

In a first, India speaks up on Hong Kong
After its ban on 59 Chinese apps, the government Wednesday seemed to launch a fresh diplomatic offensive against China by breaking its silence on China's new security law for Hong Kong.
At the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, the government said Wednesday that given the large Indian community that makes the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China its home, India has been keeping "a close watch on recent developments".
"We have heard several statements expressing concern on these developments. We hope the relevant parties will take into account these views and address them properly, seriously and objectively," said India's permanent representative to UN in Geneva Rajiv Chander. He didn't name China though.
The remark was made during an interactive dialogue on the human rights situation worldwide. This is the first time that India has spoken out on the Hong Kong issue and, perhaps not surprisingly, it comes in the middle of aggressive Chinese behaviour at the LAC that saw a violent scuffle last month in the Galwan valley resulting in casualties on both sides.
The remarks came on a day US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo endorsed India's decision to ban Chinese apps saying India's "clean app approach will boost India's sovereignty and boost integrity and national security."
According to sources, the US was keen that Indian speak up on Hong Kong where China's new law is said to undermine freedom and have implications for human rights. Twenty-seven countries came together at the Council Tuesday to demand that China reconsider the "sweeping" new security law.
India was also the only Quad nation to have not spoken up on Hong Kong until now. Australia joined the US, UK and Canada earlier in condemning China's law. With Japan also having spoken up in favour of a free and open Hong Kong, India was is the only Quad nation to have not made any public statement on the issue.
"India mum as China effects a political sea change in Hong Kong by violating a UN-registered treaty. No word from India over China's Muslim gulag, teeming with over a million inmates. India stayed mum as China changed SCS's geopolitical map. China, however, took J&K issue to UNSC," strategic affairs expert Brahma Chellaney tweeted Wednesday.
Many saw India's silence as a manifestation of the fact that India was encumbered by its border dispute with China. The June 15 clash at Galwan and subsequent Chinese behavior seems to have changed it though.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Manish_Sharma » 02 Jul 2020 01:32

pankajs wrote:
.... 2. A contact-less war is only possible by using rocket forces but that is escalation and they will get a response in kinds, at least at the border..........


So 1962 scenario was "HUMAN WAVES ATTACK" but Now the situation is reverse they are sensitive to losing 'Soldiers'

So using their MIC

They send in humongous numbers of
a.) Ballistic Missiles : Maybe we have 60 Prithvi, 30 Agni-3, 20 Agni-5, while they have 3000 or 5000 Ballistic Missiles

b.) Cruise Missiles: They have longer range but less accurate CJ-10s but in huge numbers maybe 10,000 or 12,000 compared to our 1000 Brahmos

c.) MBRL: Here also PROBABLY due to MIC and their leaders' farsightedness they've built numbers 5 to 7 times than us. (But how possible would be to bring these in Himalaya?)

d.) Artillery: Here we have imported M777 (145) + Bofors + Dhanush (114 ??) COMPARED to us they must be far ahead of us with better infrastructure they can bring heavy artillery through Railway and Roads, compared to us having to airlift limited amount of artillery that too 'Gold Plated M777'

But will that be enough to save their 'tiny emperors' from our 'Gurtej Singhs'?

In airforce we will totally dominate as proven by Shiv Cybersurge video that maximum number of fighters they can use from Tibet is 162 compared to our more and better fighters.

It seems instead of "Human Waves" china with mighty MIC will fight with "Rocket/Missile Waves" !

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 02 Jul 2020 01:34

m_saini wrote:
Mukesh.Kumar wrote:Let me try and put this economy discussion in perspective.
<snip>


I feel like you need to put more thought into this. Doesn't "a) Is China going to let us be in peace? No." answers "b)Is it acceptable for us to allow China's rise unchallenged? What would be so bad?"?

Why would it be acceptable for us to allow China's rise unchallenged when they're not going to let us be in peace? Doesn't make any sense.


You are right Saini-ji. So let me throw this right back at the forum. Given that China is going to push us into accepting then as top dog in Asia, what will be wrong in accepting this?

Let's put aside emotion. What are we fighting for? Can we articulate this in cold numbers and logic?

That is going to form the kernel of the argument of why we're need to fight China. What is the damage we can take and what damage we need to do.

Without that all talk of patriotism and bravery will remain just that. We will start fighting only to discover that public opinion turned against us and effected a government change.

Sorry for being so cynical. But this is reality. Else BIF would not be so successful.

We can rant as much as we will but to overcome this challenge we need to give more people a reason to believe in there ideas of India. Something Modiji is trying to do with his sabke saath sabka vikas sabka vishwas.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 02 Jul 2020 01:42

Manish_Sharma wrote:
pankajs wrote:....'


Is that what we want? I find this hypocritical that we as a country are allowing the flower of our youth to die because if our short sighted policy and actions.

I am not even an armchair strategist but there are enough learned people and deep thinkers on the forum who could take the lead in preparing a blueprint on how Indian MIC could be developed. Relevant technologies. Already we have Rohit Vats ji, Jay Menon ji speaking and writing publicly. Similarly we Harudasji, Indranil ji, and Hari Nair sir who could write more in public.

We need to bring back Vivek Ahuja ji and activate RahulM sir.

These were the stalwarts that made BRF great. We need them to write more. So we can learn. So we can spread the word.


Image
Last edited by Mukesh.Kumar on 02 Jul 2020 01:49, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Yayavar » 02 Jul 2020 01:42

Manish_Sharma wrote:
Mukesh.Kumar wrote:
Manish I found China at $47.2 bn and India at $42.1 at countryeconomy.com.

But per capita we should have been ahead of the Chinese.

Added later:
Yes China pet capita was $70 vs India at $90


_/\_
Thank you very much.

So despite almost equal GDP, and more PER CAPITA INCOME, Nehru-KrishnaMenon-General P.N.Thapar (*Son of Kunj Bihari Thapar, father of Karan Thapar) managed to "hand communist china a resounding victory.

*Kunj Bihari Thapar gave "general diar" a Saropa and 1.5 lakh rupees reward for doing Jallianwala Bagh Massacre the same evening in Golden Temple.

.


OT but only in reference to the asterisk in earlier post...

you are mixing the Dyers.
Golden temple priests under influence of Sundar Singh Majithia gave Gen Dyer the Saropa and made him honorary Sikh. Khushwant singh has also written on this (and his own father - Shobha Singh - testifed against Bhagat singh)
Kunj Behari Thapar supported Michael Dyer - the punjab governor and the donation was to him.
Udham singh killed Gov Dyer.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Larry Walker » 02 Jul 2020 01:49

Manish ji - how would India convert standoff attack into kinetic battle ??

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby m_saini » 02 Jul 2020 01:54

Mukesh.Kumar wrote:You are right Saini-ji. So let me throw this right back at the forum. Given that China is going to push us into accepting then as top dog in Asia, what will be wrong in accepting this?

Let's put aside emotion. What are we fighting for? Can we articulate this in cold numbers and logic?

That is going to form the kernel of the argument of why we're need to fight China. What is the damage we can take and what damage we need to do.

Without that all talk of patriotism and bravery will remain just that. We will start fighting only to discover that public opinion turned against us and effected a government change.

Sorry for being so cynical. But this is reality. Else BIF would not be so successful.

We can rant as much as we will but to overcome this challenge we need to give more people a reason to believe in there ideas of India. Something Modiji is trying to do with his sabke saath sabka vikas sabka vishwas.


No ji for me please saar. Great question but how exactly do we accept them as top dog? Do we give up on our territorial claims or should we allow them access to Indian ocean through Indian ports or a 99 year lease on Vishkhapatnam? Should we become Canada to their United States? Answer to these questions would help answer what would be wrong in accepting them as top dogs.

I'd say we're fighting for not being treated like a vassal state though with our $60 billion trade deficit and the love of our population for cheap chini goods says otherwise.

And as much as I love Modiji, his motto of sabke saath sabka vikas sabka vishwas is just an election gimmick and a rather dumb one at that. No amount of "sabka vikas" is going to convince rolers and ropers to give their "saath and vishwas" because they don't believe in such naive things.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Raveen » 02 Jul 2020 01:56

Ashokk wrote:In a first, India speaks up on Hong Kong
After its ban on 59 Chinese apps, the government Wednesday seemed to launch a fresh diplomatic offensive against China by breaking its silence on China's new security law for Hong Kong.
At the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, the government said Wednesday that given the large Indian community that makes the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China its home, India has been keeping "a close watch on recent developments".
"We have heard several statements expressing concern on these developments. We hope the relevant parties will take into account these views and address them properly, seriously and objectively," said India's permanent representative to UN in Geneva Rajiv Chander. He didn't name China though.
The remark was made during an interactive dialogue on the human rights situation worldwide. This is the first time that India has spoken out on the Hong Kong issue and, perhaps not surprisingly, it comes in the middle of aggressive Chinese behaviour at the LAC that saw a violent scuffle last month in the Galwan valley resulting in casualties on both sides.
The remarks came on a day US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo endorsed India's decision to ban Chinese apps saying India's "clean app approach will boost India's sovereignty and boost integrity and national security."
According to sources, the US was keen that Indian speak up on Hong Kong where China's new law is said to undermine freedom and have implications for human rights. Twenty-seven countries came together at the Council Tuesday to demand that China reconsider the "sweeping" new security law.
India was also the only Quad nation to have not spoken up on Hong Kong until now. Australia joined the US, UK and Canada earlier in condemning China's law. With Japan also having spoken up in favour of a free and open Hong Kong, India was is the only Quad nation to have not made any public statement on the issue.
"India mum as China effects a political sea change in Hong Kong by violating a UN-registered treaty. No word from India over China's Muslim gulag, teeming with over a million inmates. India stayed mum as China changed SCS's geopolitical map. China, however, took J&K issue to UNSC," strategic affairs expert Brahma Chellaney tweeted Wednesday.
Many saw India's silence as a manifestation of the fact that India was encumbered by its border dispute with China. The June 15 clash at Galwan and subsequent Chinese behavior seems to have changed it though.



Finally some cojones shown, hopefully we'll show some more and name them!

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 02 Jul 2020 02:05

Larry Walker wrote:Manish ji - how would India convert standoff attack into kinetic battle ??


Allow me to make my 2 n.p. contribution. In battle, like almost any activity, outcomes and are often made by momentum. Who ever seizes the initiative, has a head start in building momentum.
Unfortunately the Chinese seized ( rather we surrendered the momentum) in current situation. They brought us to a stand still. To regain momentum you need to initiate action against them elsewhere. Not where they have locked you down.

Imagine the situation if instead of trying to chill things down with talk, we had allowed local commanders to keep pushing the Chinese after 15th. Raided their camps when they were in shock. My hypothesis is that the shock waves would have made them pause and slow down. Not be so aggressive.

Essentially what I am trying to express is that it's not so much brute strength but the ability to shock the enemy and throw his command and control in disarray that helps you win. The allegory I want you to visualise is not a battle between a Chinese Godzilla and an Indian King Kong but of an Indian leopard using its hind claws to disembowel a Chinese panda three times its size at first meeting.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Larry Walker » 02 Jul 2020 02:26

But what we don't know here is how.much was Chinese buildup and our force levels in Ladakh region when Galwan happened. We could have siezed initiative if we had higher overall all combat capability (and not just overall higher force levels) in Ladakh sector in that week and irrespective of casualties if Galwan incident was something that we proactively triggered so atleast there was some basic planning that if things go south in Galwan - we go kinetic in Ladakh.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rahul M » 02 Jul 2020 02:29

RaviB wrote:
Larry Walker wrote:NSA K Shivshankar's assertions on Chinese expecting us to behave like a vassal state does not sound strong - because we have shown in Dokalam that we will not back down. When we did not back down even when main incursion was in Bhutan - what would the Chinese be smoking to assume we will back down when incursion is on our own territory.


The last time their military mobilization wasn't even half the size of this time, and there was no mechanised infantry, armour. This time they are all along the border, not just in Ladakh. Previous incursions were all localised, not in so many places at once. So basically in Doklam, they believe that they went into a standoff because they hadn't planned for the IA showing up. This time they want to overwhelm IA, they are prepared for a localised war, possibly including the SHAAF. Their assumption is that we'll back down not because of what they're smoking but because of their overwhelming firepower.
not true sir. Not by a long shot.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rakesh » 02 Jul 2020 02:59

Reaching within, Galwan Valley unit gets new Commanding Officer
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/g ... 2020-07-01
01 July 2020

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby hanumadu » 02 Jul 2020 03:25

Withdrawal talks and process, includes Pangong Tso. Chinese agreed for withdrawal and India will verify. Let's see if the chinese will stick to their word.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby samirdiw » 02 Jul 2020 03:27

ldev wrote:The PLA troops at the forward deployements can relax until the order comes through to attack. Indian troops on the other hand have to be vigilant day in and day out because the attack could come tonight or maybe not until October. That will wear them down over time. The Chinese troops can also relax because the Chinese leadership is close to 100% certain that India will not attack.

Also given that the Chinese were mesmerized by the US armed forces RMA as exhibited in the first Gulf War, they are likely to want to try it out say in Depsang. Saturation artillery and missile strikes on the concentrated Indian formations there hoping to annihilate them and then the infantry moves in to mop up and take over the area.


This is really unfair to our troops. History has been replete with instances where the defending side was lulled into thinking that no attack will happen. Some of Alexander's missions comes to mind and there are many others as well.

Also this whole narrative of we never invade other countries blah blah is just harming us. Why we keep mentioning this when no other powerful country in the world says this nonsense. This is amusement for the opponent but plays into their hands. Is this a unique Hindu thing because others don't seem to say these things?

Not even planning to liberate Tibet for example is not us invading others but simply fear of the thug and not helping out a friend whose wife(land) was stolen from him. War is fought by men and what happens at a country level is not very different from what we see at individual level sometimes. Didn't Lord Ram fight for Sugreeva who was weaker and couldn't protect his wife from Bali. Our historical narratives teach us to prepare well, be brave and fight to win -by morals if the opponent is moral, by other means if the opponent is immoral (aka China). Then why is modern India so opposite and reluctant?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 02 Jul 2020 03:29

ldev wrote:
To me the above scenario looks highly improbably all things considered.

It is improbably because firstly the IAF does not have the strike weapons for it ready. But they are not unattainable. Brahmos range extension is a work in process. Nirbhay work has to be re-started. The main hurdle is a small fuel efficient turbofan that will provide the range.

Wow .. the thread moves fast. Back to the topic.

1. The bottomline is that we cannot sustain a rocket force vs rocket force kind of play with China at the present. Our best bet it to beat them at the border and either push them out from our area or capture some of theirs for an exchange.

2. Finally Crude oil is useless by itself. If ones objective is to bring fuel supplies to a stop it is better to target refineries but understand that we too will suffer similar damages in response.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 02 Jul 2020 03:38

Larry Walker wrote:If the Chinese are stopping Indian patrols in Depsang area from going further than the Y-Junction , then isn't that a larger intrusion and more loss of territory and tactical advantage then the Pangong lake diversion? Why does GoI want to keep focus on Pangong lake ?

There are images galore identifying the Chinese position on the Chinese side of the Galwan valley and at Pangang Tso.

Have you seen any comparable OSINT on Depsang? AND why not?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby kirpalbasra » 02 Jul 2020 03:58

Just to let you know all these maps of positions of Chinese position that people keep going on about are not accurate. There is margin of error so that that when you draw the LAC it can show Indians in Chinese land and the opposite. So take the maps with a pinch of salt . Maps used by ARMY /NAVY AIR FORCE ARE MUCK MORE ACCURATE.. Cant say more or they will coming knocking at my door..

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby VikramS » 02 Jul 2020 04:12

Folks there is some chatter of F-35 sales to India being approved by the US Senate.

Regardless of whether there is any permanent purchase, a squadron of "loaned"aircraft distributed in sets of 2-3 over a few airbases, can really help IAF. They can be the ambush bandits, firing long range AMRAAMs from the flank while the existing IAF planes wrangle with the PLAAF.

F-35 is a fly by wire aircraft, easy to fly. My wild ass guess is that an experienced IAF pilot can reach a point where they become proficient in taking BVR shots in a week...

Doesn't hurt to get that process of training going on simulators.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby VikramS » 02 Jul 2020 04:13

kirpalbasra wrote:Just to let you know all these maps of positions of Chinese position that people keep going on about are not accurate. There is margin of error so that that when you draw the LAC it can show Indians in Chinese land and the opposite. So take the maps with a pinch of salt . Maps used by ARMY /NAVY AIR FORCE ARE MUCK MORE ACCURATE.. Cant say more or they will coming knocking at my door..


Read somewhere that the thickness of the pen used to mark the LAC corresponds to a KM or more of actual terrain....

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby kirpalbasra » 02 Jul 2020 04:17

VikramS wrote:Folks there is some chatter of F-35 sales to India being approved by the US Senate.

Regardless of whether there is any permanent purchase, a squadron of "loaned"aircraft distributed in sets of 2-3 over a few airbases, can really help IAF. They can be the ambush bandits, firing long range AMRAAMs from the flank while the existing IAF planes wrangle with the PLAAF.

F-35 is a fly by wire aircraft, easy to fly. My wild ass guess is that an experienced IAF pilot can reach a point where they become proficient in taking BVR shots in a week...

Doesn't hurt to get that process of training going on simulators.

Really you talk a lot of crap you friend lent you his Ferrari you think you could drive it to its full potential. I joined this forum because its the best don'ts let me down.


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