India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

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pankajs
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 02 Jul 2020 16:08

kirpalbasra wrote:
nishant.gupta wrote:I have a thought process which I wanted to share here. Pure assumption based with some facts.

Fact:
    India has never been an aggressor. We (all of us from left to right) take immense pride in this fact as well and consider this for some reason to be a matter of prestige or something.
    India has a history of being reactive rather than being proactive. Even in the current situation, all our actions suggest that we continue to be that. We are increasing forces only when the Chinese are doing the same. We are giving them all time for talks. We are taking small actions on the economic front as signals to China to back off but next action is happening only after checking response on first one.
    Pakistan is a vassal state of China. They are too deep into it to decide anything for themselves. If promised a couple of billion, they will probably sell the country to China and go sit in a raft in Arabian Sea.
    China has a history of creating a situation in one place and then acting in a completely different place. (Even Modiji has the same history but his is purely political)
    As some previous posts pointed out, China reacts to international issues by being aggressive and usually comes out better with more land.

So where am I taking this?

A glance on the map and entire border of China and India (everyone knows this I guess), we have three borders with China. One which goes is in Ladakh all the way to Nepal border in which the issue is going on, second in Sikkim and third in AP.

While Ladakh is the first finger in the overall plans of China, Nepal, Bhutan, Sikkim & AP are the remaining 4 fingers.

Sikkim in my opinion at present gives the most strategic advantage to China. Ladakh is good to show but it does practically nothing for China. They already have connection to Pakistan and if India wanted to take GB, not having Ladakh will not stop them. AP is the same and even lesser in value compared to Ladakh for now. Sikkim on the other hand literally gives them a way to cut off India into two at any time. This will make it far easier to take AP and maybe the whole NE in the future whenever they want. A highway via Sikkim (or AP) to Bay of Bengal becomes a high possibility which makes a lot more economic sense for them compared to CPEC which is risky due to the thousand Paki issues and they know that.

Is it possible that the intention is to keep all media, attention, talks etc etc engaged in Ladakh while preparing for a short swift strike in Sikkim and occupying land there? By the time IA can mobilize, strike is over and they go into defensive positions which is more tenable. Some more points which can work in their favor:

    Doklam three years back could have simply been an information gathering exercise to get a feel of forces on ground. The short fist fight in beginning of May this year could be the same.
    With forces currently at LAC, they have a well laid out highway to move things any time they want by road if needed. It will take 24 hours from Pangong Tso. For IA to do similar redeployment, it will take 2.5 days via Delhi - roads which are bad and used by public.
    A relatively small number of well targeted missiles can take out the current IA in Sikkim and losses for Chinese can be minimized.
    They can assume safely (due to history) that India does not go offensive and the Pakistani deployment which has already happened will make sure that IA has to be wary of moving troops away from Northern borders.
    War could be over by the time GoI and Indian fauj can ever realize.

They will not only be shown to be super powerful back home as well as define terms at the border but they will have got a huge strategic advantage against India for future.....

Am I making sense? Or is the reason for browning my dhoti only because of overindulgence in Biryani?

Very good read . You are right China will only strike where they can win .And if they strike here could be linking up with Bangladesh in the future who seems to going over to then Chins. A Chinese naval base here would mean Indian navy will have its work cut out.

Tibet to Bangladesh road corridor via Sikkim idea makes a lot of sense for China. I have heard of it before either on the forum or elsewhere.

However the facts are ...

2a. Indian forces have been alerted all across the border including Sikkim and AP.

2b. While it is true that redeployment for the Chinese would be easier given the relatively flatlands of Tibet compared to the mountainous terrain on the Indian side, it misses a very important point. The India force that will be mobilized to confront an aggressive China on Sikkim front wont be the ones stationed in Ladakh but from Bengal, etc.

IIRC, only yesterdin on the forum or on twitter, in response to someone fear of a thrust into the Chicken's neck by the Chinese, someone else pointed out that the area had 3 Divisions permanently deployed. 3 Divisions is what India has deployed at present to mirror the Chinese current deployment in Ladakh! How much time will they take to move from the Siliguri corridor up to Sikkim borders while backup is rushed to reinforce the corridor from the hinterland?

3. Missiles don't win war, else US would have had a pacified Afghanistan long time ago. They do degrade infra but winning is a different matter. Too much of Gulf war syndrome.

4. Again, IA has been preparing for 2 front war for a while now. It can keep Bakis at bay while it fights the Chinese in Sikkim. The troops for Sikkim would come not from Indo-Bak border.

5. IA will not be surprise nor will it be overwhelmed by missile strikes if any. It will retain its capacity to defend the border whole reinforcements are rushed in from the hinterland.

While the idea of a Tibet-Sikkim-Bangladehs corridor is attractive it will not work.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Aditya_V » 02 Jul 2020 16:35

If Ravi Shankar prasad is going in public on this, he needs to put some sort of proof in public domain

https://english.jagran.com/india/in-galwan-clashes-40-chinese-soldiers-killed-claims-union-minister-ravi-shankar-prasad-10013456


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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby rkirankr » 02 Jul 2020 16:42

rkirankr wrote:https://twitter.com/ZeeNews/status/1278636647723053056

This Zee news report if true, then it is a tough situation. It has to be handled carefully

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 02 Jul 2020 17:08

sajaym wrote:Attack helicopters can also be easily targetted with shoulder fired surface to air missiles and anti-material rifles by people actually looking down on them from the mountains. So it's okay if the chinese would like to come first in droves -- if we are positioned in the heights with adequate numbers of AT & SA missiles, it'll be like throwing stones from rooftops onto the hordes below. Ideally, we should be sending the Rudras in first and saving the Apaches for the last. But I guess the only reason the Apaches are there is to use it's radar to try & take shots at the S-400s by hiding behind hill features.

1. Apache won't take shots at S-400 because it does not have armament to have a shot from a long-range and will need to be really luck to get close to be effective.

2. OTOH, Brahmos would do a good choice if we can locate the radar/firing units and feed the co-ordinates.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby fanne » 02 Jul 2020 17:21

If we allow chinese to take the first shot (which looks like the policy as of now), they have the luxury to choose the target and amass disproportionate number and attack and overwhelm. The counter is that, we also amass at our place of choosing and do a counter attack (while we fight off initial chinese attack). Now why aren't we taking the first shot, because we are hoping, chinese are bluffing and wont fight. If that hope is correct, it is best outcome for us, no civilizational bad blood beyond chinese betrayal of 1962 (look at chinese and japanese relation, they are fukced because of their history). The risk is what if chinese are buying time, acclimatizing troops and fooling us for a attack later on?
But if you attack, we setback ourselves (and not counting effect on chinese, i don't give rat's behind on that) by few months to a year. That in itself is a very little price to pay to kick some chinese ars* if they attack us, but not worthwhile if they don't.
Btw - My phone got hacked as well. I am a simple internet warrior, these guys are paranoid.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby fanne » 02 Jul 2020 17:21

the actual count circulating in MI is 123.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby kirpalbasra » 02 Jul 2020 17:24

With Indian navy sending larger patrol boats to Pangong Tso can any post pictures of what type of boat it is likely to be. Again Indian armed forces only acting to chin deployment make you want to bang you're head against a wall. These boats should have there years ago. Thanks in advance.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 02 Jul 2020 17:30

Larry Walker wrote:
pankajs wrote:There are images galore identifying the Chinese position on the Chinese side of the Galwan valley and at Pangang Tso.

Have you seen any comparable OSINT on Depsang? AND why not?

That is what my point is - lots of pictures and discussions on every inch of land in Galwan and Pangong - and the Indian army has done a massive buildup in Laddakh against an enemy which is not visible on maps and discussions like it is in Galwan and Pangong. So let's assume even if Chinese move back couple of kms in Pangong and even Galwan - then will that 'invisible' threat to our north just dissipate ??

We haven't seen satellite images of the Depsang deployment because that Chinese deployment is NOT on Indian side and all narrative to the contrary will fall apart.

Lets for a moment assume that Indian jurnos/channels can be pressured BUT what about those outside of India looking to embarrass India/Modi? There is NI image because there is no crossing of Indian LAC. There may be some squatting or blocking nut nothing much.

The northern threat is not invisible to GOI and is being discussed with the Chinese along with the rest.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Larry Walker » 02 Jul 2020 17:35

That is the reason India stood ground in Dokalam. No other way to reach Chickens neck in any 'offensive timeframe' apart from Dokalam. Tawang is too far for such a 'lightening strike'. Now even Chinese are able to push away 3 Indian divisions, how will they get Armor and mechanised through the Himalayas onto the Siliguri plains ?? Just infantry running around with some arty cover is of no good on plains. And even if they achieve to cutoff NE - has anyone checked with Bangladesh whether they will allow this highway - as then it makes Bangladesh a collaborator of Chinese in this war - so then what stops IA from cutting off Bangladesh territories that are jutting into Indian land ??

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby darshan » 02 Jul 2020 17:41

fanne wrote:Btw - My phone got hacked as well. I am a simple internet warrior, these guys are paranoid.


Not particularly directed at you @Fanne

To help others out, how does one figure out that the device is hacked? Some useful prevention tips may also be helpful. Not everyone posting here would be tech savvy.

I personally have tor and VPN setup.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby srin » 02 Jul 2020 17:43

mahadevbhu wrote:Guys all the ranges of our missiles are curtailed for public consumption and to espouse a defensive posture. The ranges of all missiles from prithvi onwards are multiple times what is publicly proclaimed. Brahmos is tomahawk like range wise. No need to worry about even conventional responses. We don't have any problems in responding correctly. What we do have a problem in is winning the war. We can possibly win the engagement locally..but winning a war is impossible.


Brahmos has tomahawk range ? Is that in lo-lo mode or in hi-lo mode or in pure ballistic mode ? And any sources you can provide ?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby vijayk » 02 Jul 2020 17:46

fanne wrote:If we allow chinese to take the first shot (which looks like the policy as of now), they have the luxury to choose the target and amass disproportionate number and attack and overwhelm. The counter is that, we also amass at our place of choosing and do a counter attack (while we fight off initial chinese attack). Now why aren't we taking the first shot, because we are hoping, chinese are bluffing and wont fight. If that hope is correct, it is best outcome for us, no civilizational bad blood beyond chinese betrayal of 1962 (look at chinese and japanese relation, they are fukced because of their history). The risk is what if chinese are buying time, acclimatizing troops and fooling us for a attack later on?
But if you attack, we setback ourselves (and not counting effect on chinese, i don't give rat's behind on that) by few months to a year. That in itself is a very little price to pay to kick some chinese ars* if they attack us, but not worthwhile if they don't.
Btw - My phone got hacked as well. I am a simple internet warrior, these guys are paranoid.


If this is true https://twitter.com/ZeeNews/status/1278636647723053056

They are in full Offense mode. They are getting ready for a major war. They are building up their forces. They are bringing SAM.

They know US is in serious internal fight and election is around the corner. If T wins, Dems/left will take country to dogs. If Dems win, they know anarchists will rule.

We need to fight our own war. I hope we are ready. Xi Ping and COMMIE dogs are barbarians waiting at the gate.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby srin » 02 Jul 2020 17:54

nishant.gupta wrote:Is it possible that the intention is to keep all media, attention, talks etc etc engaged in Ladakh while preparing for a short swift strike in Sikkim and occupying land there? By the time IA can mobilize, strike is over and they go into defensive positions which is more tenable. Some more points which can work in their favor:

    Doklam three years back could have simply been an information gathering exercise to get a feel of forces on ground. The short fist fight in beginning of May this year could be the same.
    With forces currently at LAC, they have a well laid out highway to move things any time they want by road if needed. It will take 24 hours from Pangong Tso. For IA to do similar redeployment, it will take 2.5 days via Delhi - roads which are bad and used by public.
    A relatively small number of well targeted missiles can take out the current IA in Sikkim and losses for Chinese can be minimized.
    They can assume safely (due to history) that India does not go offensive and the Pakistani deployment which has already happened will make sure that IA has to be wary of moving troops away from Northern borders.
    War could be over by the time GoI and Indian fauj can ever realize.


Why do you assume that it's the same divisions at Pangong that'd be moved to Sikkim ? I'm not an orbat expert like so many people here, but don't we have enough forces in the north east ? In fact, they'd be leaving the Pangong open for a riposte, no ?
Secondly, which route do you reckon they'd use ? Through Chumbi ?
Third, how would small number of missiles take out well dug and prepared army positions ?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Mollick.R » 02 Jul 2020 17:55

India approves massive defence-related proposals including 33 new fighter aircraft
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 740252.cms

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Larry Walker » 02 Jul 2020 17:57

A huge buildup betrays Chinese fears. It would have started as a buildup to intimidate India - and India instead of cowering down did counter deployment. Now it is not given that all counter deployment was defensive only - there would be lot of offensive elements too to take fight to Chinese side. Seeing this Chinese would have further increased their deployment and India would have mirrored it. Now they have reached a point where they have reached a huge mass of deployment. Betrays 2 of the Chinese fears - they don't want this conflict to spread so focus all the fight in one sector and they are very wary of Indian counter-offensive and are trying very hard to keep their losses comparatively low by building up redundancies and depth. But if India takes initiative now and goes in offensive - maybe initial losses for Chinese would be heavy due to their concentration. If GoI feels that there is no other outcome other than war - then it makes sense to go offensive now when they have massed.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby RajaRudra » 02 Jul 2020 17:58

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 750345.cms

Work to begin shortly on Zojila tunnel: Nitin Gadkari

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ks_sachin » 02 Jul 2020 17:58

pankajs wrote:
kirpalbasra wrote:Very good read . You are right China will only strike where they can win .And if they strike here could be linking up with Bangladesh in the future who seems to going over to then Chins. A Chinese naval base here would mean Indian navy will have its work cut out.

Tibet to Bangladesh road corridor via Sikkim idea makes a lot of sense for China. I have heard of it before either on the forum or elsewhere.

However the facts are ...

2a. Indian forces have been alerted all across the border including Sikkim and AP.

2b. While it is true that redeployment for the Chinese would be easier given the relatively flatlands of Tibet compared to the mountainous terrain on the Indian side, it misses a very important point. The India force that will be mobilized to confront an aggressive China on Sikkim front wont be the ones stationed in Ladakh but from Bengal, etc.

IIRC, only yesterdin on the forum or on twitter, in response to someone fear of a thrust into the Chicken's neck by the Chinese, someone else pointed out that the area had 3 Divisions permanently deployed. 3 Divisions is what India has deployed at present to mirror the Chinese current deployment in Ladakh! How much time will they take to move from the Siliguri corridor up to Sikkim borders while backup is rushed to reinforce the corridor from the hinterland?

3. Missiles don't win war, else US would have had a pacified Afghanistan long time ago. They do degrade infra but winning is a different matter. Too much of Gulf war syndrome.

4. Again, IA has been preparing for 2 front war for a while now. It can keep Bakis at bay while it fights the Chinese in Sikkim. The troops for Sikkim would come not from Indo-Bak border.

5. IA will not be surprise nor will it be overwhelmed by missile strikes if any. It will retain its capacity to defend the border whole reinforcements are rushed in from the hinterland.

While the idea of a Tibet-Sikkim-Bangladehs corridor is attractive it will not work.

Guys please read up on how the three divisions are deployed and the terrain.
Please read this

https://vatsrohit.blogspot.com

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby samirdiw » 02 Jul 2020 17:59

pankajs wrote: It can keep Bakis at bay while it fights the Chinese in Sikkim


Wasn't reluctance to take Arjun due to the fact that Arjun cannot cross the 40T Pakistani bridges that the IA (can trust) to move the T-90's over? Even in that case wouldn't Arjun's be very useful in a defensive role or for the holding corps?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby srin » 02 Jul 2020 18:10

There have been several posts here in the past page or two (this thread moves quite fast) that the Chinese have gamed this scenario. I find it unlikely.
They couldn't have counted on 16 Bihar response and their own casualties. Once blood has been shed, it leads to a different chain of events and hardening of the position from India. They'd be under pressure to do "something" to avenge their higher casualties or be shown as wimps. They definitely couldn't have gamed it.

At a strategic level too, they have lost the plot. They could have strengthened their positions peacefully through the 2000s while we slept with horrible border roads and focused on TSP. Yet their support of TSP and their actions on the border, led even the UPA-2 to approve the MSC. And the Modi govt to accelerate the infrastructure in border areas. They could have had India as a huge market and owned up the full supply chain, yet they have gifted us this great opportunity to fix up our manufacturing. We were sitting on arms sales to Vietname, Philippines for so long, but now they have given a fantastic opportunity for that. Now, there is no question of "peaceful rise of China". This is strategic foolishness they seem to have imbibed from TSP.

Nothing good in India happens unless there is a crisis, and they have just motivated the Govt to act in long term for a bit of short term cost - which people at this time are very much willing to pay. Chinese have thus presented a great gift to us. If they have gamed this, then there must be some well-wisher of India at high levels of CCP/PLA though Occam's razor would say they are just incompetent at the top levels.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby RaviB » 02 Jul 2020 18:30

srin wrote:There have been several posts here in the past page or two (this thread moves quite fast) that the Chinese have gamed this scenario. I find it unlikely.
They couldn't have counted on 16 Bihar response and their own casualties. Once blood has been shed, it leads to a different chain of events and hardening of the position from India. They'd be under pressure to do "something" to avenge their higher casualties or be shown as wimps. They definitely couldn't have gamed it.

At a strategic level too, they have lost the plot. They could have strengthened their positions peacefully through the 2000s while we slept with horrible border roads and focused on TSP. Yet their support of TSP and their actions on the border, led even the UPA-2 to approve the MSC. And the Modi govt to accelerate the infrastructure in border areas. They could have had India as a huge market and owned up the full supply chain, yet they have gifted us this great opportunity to fix up our manufacturing. We were sitting on arms sales to Vietname, Philippines for so long, but now they have given a fantastic opportunity for that. Now, there is no question of "peaceful rise of China". This is strategic foolishness they seem to have imbibed from TSP.

Nothing good in India happens unless there is a crisis, and they have just motivated the Govt to act in long term for a bit of short term cost - which people at this time are very much willing to pay. Chinese have thus presented a great gift to us. If they have gamed this, then there must be some well-wisher of India at high levels of CCP/PLA though Occam's razor would say they are just incompetent at the top levels.


Apparently, till 15th of June at least, it was CMC+SHA running the show. They first included their India experts in the policy making exercise after that.

If you look at it, the reactions in India have been fairly predictable (apart from 15th June). But it's obvious that their planners did not expect any of this. Look at Gobar Times firefighting: India should not boycott Chinese stuff; India will hurt itself; economic actions are pointless because India is a poor country.

Anyone who knew anything about Indian politics would have known: SHA enters Ladakh --> Chinese flags burnt --> boycott of Chinese goods but they appear surprised by the vehemence of the Indian response. India's countermobilization, again seems to have been unexpected. I mean if your plan is to attack, then how incompetent do you have to be to bluster while enemy forces take their positions? This is increasing looking like Kurukshetra waiting for the conch shell to be blown. I think there have been several strategic blunders on the Chinese side and inability to foresee Indian reactions, which is primarily due to cultural myopia. Their freeze in tactics might also be due to having everything decided in Beijing.

As to strategic foolishness, I think the case of Pakistan is different in that there the Gernails appear to imbibe it with mother's milk.
Last edited by RaviB on 02 Jul 2020 18:34, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ks_sachin » 02 Jul 2020 18:33

Larry Walker wrote:That is the reason India stood ground in Dokalam. No other way to reach Chickens neck in any 'offensive timeframe' apart from Dokalam. Tawang is too far for such a 'lightening strike'. Now even Chinese are able to push away 3 Indian divisions, how will they get Armor and mechanised through the Himalayas onto the Siliguri plains ?? Just infantry running around with some arty cover is of no good on plains. And even if they achieve to cutoff NE - has anyone checked with Bangladesh whether they will allow this highway - as then it makes Bangladesh a collaborator of Chinese in this war - so then what stops IA from cutting off Bangladesh territories that are jutting into Indian land ??

Larry which Chickens Neck is this?
If it is what know the Chickens Neck to be what connection is there between the Chumbi valley Doklam area and the neck?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 02 Jul 2020 18:41

arshyam wrote:Some rambling thoughts, by no means conclusive. It just reflects my dilemma...

....

Tibet by itself is not a strong reason for us to dig in and fight a sustained conflict with China - only in strategic and our kind of circles does that have some currency. Liberating Tibet is no means a joke, if not impossible, and if we were to ever attempt that, public opinion needs to be baying for it. But as of now, the average person, while definitely sympathetic, is not that motivated to fight China for Tibet's sake.

Given that reality, what kind of vision should we articulate to back our moves and take the initiative? Freedom? Self-respect? Vasudaiva kutumbakam? (definitely not!) Equality of the global commons? Dharma?

Maybe the last one - but we have to get over our woolly ideas like vasudaiva kutumbakam and equality of global commons. These are not self defining notions that can rally a country around it. Dharma can do it, but then we need to publicly bring out the adharmic aspects of chinese power, while clearly articulating our national goal as preserving dharma. I too am not clear about it being a viable strategy, and I suspect our establishment has the same dilemma - how do we see ourselves and use that vision to achieve our goals, whatever it takes? China is not obliging us by firing the first shot, and we can't keep playing the defensive game forever - for it suits them just fine.

If my post sounds confused, it's because I actually am, hence shared my thoughts hoping some gurus can give some pointers to refine them further.


Arshyam-ji, we all are trying to piece together a picture without having all the pieces or as an established framework or training. Please don't be apologetic. We learn from acknowledging and exploring our ignorance.

Now, this is my question. Why are we assuming that winning over Tibet is not in our interest? Finally it's a cost benefit analysis that needs to be done. It's more like doing a two-by- two MECE model with Benefit and Cost as Columns and Direct Factors and Indirect Factors as Rows.

Sorry it's my analytical consultant brain speaking but this is needed. It's a deep exercise but without this we will never have a clear idea. And therefore no conviction.

I think this lack of clear rational analysis is what ails our strategic community. Yes maybe the army does this. Maybe very high level defense think tanks do it. But till the time this does not become mainstream our public discourse will be dominated by opinion masquerading as fact. Too easily diverted by paid lifafa journalism.

Please don't mind my going at this like a dog on a bone. My objective is to understand facts based on numbers.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Larry Walker » 02 Jul 2020 18:42

ks_sachin wrote:Larry which Chickens Neck is this?
If it is what know the Chickens Neck to be what connection is there between the Chumbi valley Doklam area and the neck?

I am referring to Siliguri corridor here. No military experience here but looking at maps - coming down S204 is the quickest way to cut this chickens neck.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 02 Jul 2020 18:53

RaviB wrote:....

RaviB-ji asking for your forbearance in the beginning itself. Let's explore this more.

We need to quantify and specify how China's rise is inclemental for us. Not doing this robs us of two benefits. Firstly, a will visualized negative scenario will light a fire under people's asses. Nothing galvanizes us better than a crisis. It's then that we can easily kick aside idiots like CrookLaw, SSM, MMS and get to Barton building. And secondly, there are no permanent enemies or friends among nations. One day in the future it maybe in the interest of a strong India and strong China too accommodate each other. The only way this works out for us is if we have a clear picture of what is our interest. That's why I am pushing for an understanding and quantification of what is the cost of letting China rise unchallenged.


And the answer to the critical question of what is our objective. I am sorry, but we are all guilty of being very wishy washy in defining this. What exactly do we want? What are the pressure points for us? What are our milestones.

Whether it's BRF or other forums, I cannot see a coherent vision for the future of India. And I am as guilty as anyone else in being one of the blindmen describing an elephant from touch.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 02 Jul 2020 19:00

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 739627.cms
Curbs on companies from countries illegally holding Indian land

Any decision would directly impact Chinese firms as the northern neighbour ‘illegally occupies’ 38,000 sq km of Indian territory in Ladakh. Also, Pakistan, which has occupied a part of Kashmir, has ceded over 5,000 sq km in the Shaksgam Valley to China.

If the proposal is accepted, the curbs are likely to be brought in through changes in the Public Procurement (Preference to ‘Make in India’) Order of 2017, sources said. Some changes may also have to be made in the General Financial Rules. Officials confirmed that the proposal is being looked at carefully, given its ‘high sensitivity’ and possible ramifications on diplomatic ties with China.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby abhik » 02 Jul 2020 19:41

rkirankr wrote:
rkirankr wrote:https://twitter.com/ZeeNews/status/1278636647723053056

This Zee news report if true, then it is a tough situation. It has to be handled carefully

This is all I could parse from the video:
HQ-9 (in Galwan?), HQ-16 deployed
Huge deployment near Khurnak Fort
Have deployed 6x as many troops as India (not clear where exactly, does not jive with the news that we have already deployed 3 divisions in Ladakh)

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby abhik » 02 Jul 2020 19:51

From Twitter, some thing to watch out for in the coming years:
https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/12 ... 4665099265
d-atisSkull and crossbones
@detresfa_
Systematic improvements across most #China airbases in border regions with #India have been undertaken in the last few months, another one spotted ongoing at #Damxung county, being #Tibet's first civil airport, originally built in 1955

Location : https://goo.gl/maps/jjQJUWq3VRnw3x4t5

Image

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ldev » 02 Jul 2020 20:04

RaviB wrote:This is not true at all. While certainly not as easily covered as Pakistan, China has several major targets in the range of ~1000 km. Chengdu is around 900km from Dibrugarh, Chongqing (also written Chungking) is I think around 1100 km. Chengdu is a major military centre. Chongqing was developed as a city precisely as part of the third line of defence (IIRC), a city not too close to the sea that would serve as a military centre. Administratively, it has the same status as Beijing and Shanghai and has a population of 30 million. These are both perfect counterforce targets. There's also Kunming which is even closer but that would only be relevant as a countervalue target.India has a highly redundant capability to hit these targets.

What Indian weapon system currently deployed, (not including the Agni 2 and 3 which are purely for the nuke strike role), is capable of striking 900 km into China? There is a reason that today the DAC has approved the development of a Long Range Land Attack Cruise Missile, both air launched and ship launched with a range of 1000km. And the reason is because India today lacks that capability. it is what I have been asking for the last few weeks ever since this crisis started and I am glad that today GOI has approved funding for it's development. Maybe somebody senior in GOI does read BRF :)
Last edited by ldev on 02 Jul 2020 20:06, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Deans » 02 Jul 2020 20:05

Larry Walker wrote:
ks_sachin wrote:Larry which Chickens Neck is this?
If it is what know the Chickens Neck to be what connection is there between the Chumbi valley Doklam area and the neck?

I am referring to Siliguri corridor here. No military experience here but looking at maps - coming down S204 is the quickest way to cut this chickens neck.


It may look like a chickens neck when an amateur looks at a map.
In reality, the S-204 - which stops short of the border and narrows into a track that has a width of 1 vehicle, is bounded on 3 sides by
the Mountains in our territory, whose heights we control.
We can have a division deployed on all 3 sides (we have 3 divisions of the Siliguri based XXXIII corps and a Division of IV corps in Rangia in the area. It is far easier for us to pinch off the Chumbi valley, than it is for the Chinese to force their way across the mountains to cut off the North East.
Last edited by Deans on 03 Jul 2020 09:30, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Deans » 02 Jul 2020 20:13

abhik wrote:From Twitter, some thing to watch out for in the coming years:
https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/12 ... 4665099265
d-atisSkull and crossbones
@detresfa_
Systematic improvements across most #China airbases in border regions with #India have been undertaken in the last few months, another one spotted ongoing at #Damxung county, being #Tibet's first civil airport, originally built in 1955

Location : https://goo.gl/maps/jjQJUWq3VRnw3x4t5

Image


Damxung does not have the runway length for fighter operations at high altitude, or for heavily loaded aircraft to operate. That's why the main airport in the area is Lhasa-Ghonggar. That apart, If you look at ALL airbases in Tibet on google maps, none show hardened shelters, radars, SAM batteries and all the structures that make a major air base. Contrast that with any of the key IAF Bases facing China in the East - e.g. Bareilly, Gorakhpur, Tezpur

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ldev » 02 Jul 2020 20:20

Rs_singh wrote:Long range strike capability, I couldn’t agree more.

Maybe somebody from GOI does read BRF!! This is what I have been crying hoarse about on this thread for the last few weeks!!

Design and development of a new 1,000 kilometres strike range Land Attack Cruise Missile by the DRDO has also been cleared.


Defence Ministry approves purchase of 33 new fighter jets including 21 MiG-29s from Russia

As usual the ignorant media have focused on the jet fighter acquisition from Russia. But the most significant news is the new Land Attack Cruise missile development. More than anything else this missile will give the IAF and IN a whole new list of target much deeper into China. What has not been spelt out in this article but has been mentioned elsewhere is that this new missile will fit into the same launchers as used by Brahmos on Indian Navy ships so that will provide a lot of flexibility to IN ships to mix and match what load out of the Brahmos vs the LRLACM they will carry. An air launched version is also being developed. So this missile will enable India to target Chinese targets from land, the sea and air.
Last edited by ldev on 02 Jul 2020 20:26, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby fanne » 02 Jul 2020 20:26

Why would you put 3 div on three side of the mountain. Half div should be good enough. Rest to advance forward to S-204 and cut G219 from there. Two can play the game. Larry shahib, can you not Dhoti shibir whole weekend for the month and then rest of the month post things calmly? All it needed was look up s204 on google map with sat images, little zoom and follow the road. You would see (like you I am a civvie) that how tough it is.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby RaviB » 02 Jul 2020 20:35

Mukesh.Kumar wrote:
RaviB wrote:....

RaviB-ji asking for your forbearance in the beginning itself. Let's explore this more.

We need to quantify and specify how China's rise is inclemental for us. Not doing this robs us of two benefits. Firstly, a will visualized negative scenario will light a fire under people's asses. Nothing galvanizes us better than a crisis. It's then that we can easily kick aside idiots like CrookLaw, SSM, MMS and get to Barton building. And secondly, there are no permanent enemies or friends among nations. One day in the future it maybe in the interest of a strong India and strong China too accommodate each other. The only way this works out for us is if we have a clear picture of what is our interest. That's why I am pushing for an understanding and quantification of what is the cost of letting China rise unchallenged.


And the answer to the critical question of what is our objective. I am sorry, but we are all guilty of being very wishy washy in defining this. What exactly do we want? What are the pressure points for us? What are our milestones.

Whether it's BRF or other forums, I cannot see a coherent vision for the future of India. And I am as guilty as anyone else in being one of the blindmen describing an elephant from touch.


My personal vision for the future of India is: An India where all Indians can live a life of dignity and have the possibility of achieving their full potential, maintain their civilisational heritage and live in peace.

This doesn't mean we have to become massively rich, a basic dignified life for everyone is sufficient, accessible education, healthcare, etc.

Peace is a basic condition for this. Peace does not come out of wishful thinking and spouting rubbish like "vasudhaiva kutumbakam". Peace requires national strength and resolve to counter external (and internal) threats. There is no one war or level of military capability that will guarantee peace but it is imperative that the state be prepared to protect our citizens.

That is my vision and that is why we need to deter China by force. Neither of our countries is going away and there will be cycles of rise and fall, so this action if successful will buy us 30 years of peace. If we don't act now, we will have 6 months of peace followed by 6 months of threat and so on. We will have to fight China, to achieve temporary peace and will probably have to fight again, soon as we slip up in the future.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Larry Walker » 02 Jul 2020 21:04

fanne wrote:Why would you put 3 div on three side of the mountain. Half div should be good enough. Rest to advance forward to S-204 and cut G219 from there. Two can play the game. Larry shahib, can you not Dhoti shibir whole weekend for the month and then rest of the month post things calmly? All it needed was look up s204 on google map with sat images, little zoom and follow the road. You would see (like you I am a civvie) that how tough it is.

Sir - if you look at my original post - I did not proactively conjure up that scenario to dhoti shiver - i was replying to a post that once this Chinese jaggernaut starts going south on G219 after de-escalation it may just attack Sikkim ( for fun?) and it is in that context that I said the shortest route is S204. Now if occupying mountains on 3 sides of a valley overlooking a narrow road is a sureshot way to ensure that China cannot invade - then I think we should never worry about China - as IA will find numerous such chokepoints before Chinese ever get to see the plains of India.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby abhik » 02 Jul 2020 21:10

May not be completely new, but posting here any way. This is from China Aerospace Studies Institute (US mil org)
China’s Air Force Preparing for Contingencies in the Skies Over Ladakh
It has an image dated mid June of Hotan
- 16 Flankers (up from usual 12)
- 6 J-8 (new)
- 2 KJ-500 early warning and control aircraft (new)
- 2 Y-8 possibly Y-8G electronic warfare variant (new)
- the middle apron area that was had over 2 dozen J-7s is now empty, most of them appear to have been moved to the south east corner (placed almost like its a bone yard). I would speculate that they are making space for new model fighters (probably Flankers), since they have limited space, might as well station the best they can through. Also once this is done it would indicate the completion of their buildup in Hotan.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby samirdiw » 02 Jul 2020 21:31

Mukesh.Kumar wrote:Now, this is my question. Why are we assuming that winning over Tibet is not in our interest? Finally it's a cost benefit analysis that needs to be done. It's more like doing a two-by- two MECE model with Benefit and Cost as Columns and Direct Factors and Indirect Factors as Rows.

ldev wrote:But the most significant news is the new Land Attack Cruise missile development. More than anything else this missile will give the IAF and IN a whole new list of target much deeper into China.

These are the kinds of problem solving approaches we need on this board (and within our military/civilian leadership) to move us forward. Going on an on about some journalists who may not speak well of our favorite party and name calling, writing off each other (dhoti-shivering/jingo) etc is not conducive to fruitful discussions. Hope we can focus on actual problem solving without writing off any solutions.

I guess one of the first question that Modiji would ask his Military/Finance Minister would be..
1. How long a war can we sustain without additional debt?
2. How long a battle can China sustain against India excluding other factors other than military and finance?
3. Excluding nukes what is the maximum damage they can incur on our country.
4. How many conventional hits would it take to take out all our OFB, defense industries and ports? i.e. reduce drastically our ability to prolong a war.
5. Where would their missiles need to be to do the above? Do we have the ability to take out those missile launchers -- what is needed to fill the gap?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Raveen » 02 Jul 2020 21:39

Mollick.R wrote:India approves massive defence-related proposals including 33 new fighter aircraft
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 740252.cms

Please stop posting WhatsApp forwards without reading the preceding discussion on this thread.

Bullets 1, 3, and 4 are materially the same
1, 3, and 4 were approved last year, discussed to death here
If they cleared 38k, of which 18 k is for Russian planes, how is 31k being spent on Indian industry?

8 is critical and a welcome development

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby AshishA » 02 Jul 2020 21:42

RaviB wrote:Apparently, till 15th of June at least, it was CMC+SHA running the show. They first included their India experts in the policy making exercise after that.

If you look at it, the reactions in India have been fairly predictable (apart from 15th June). But it's obvious that their planners did not expect any of this. Look at Gobar Times firefighting: India should not boycott Chinese stuff; India will hurt itself; economic actions are pointless because India is a poor country.

Anyone who knew anything about Indian politics would have known: SHA enters Ladakh --> Chinese flags burnt --> boycott of Chinese goods but they appear surprised by the vehemence of the Indian response. India's countermobilization, again seems to have been unexpected. I mean if your plan is to attack, then how incompetent do you have to be to bluster while enemy forces take their positions? This is increasing looking like Kurukshetra waiting for the conch shell to be blown. I think there have been several strategic blunders on the Chinese side and inability to foresee Indian reactions, which is primarily due to cultural myopia. Their freeze in tactics might also be due to having everything decided in Beijing.

As to strategic foolishness, I think the case of Pakistan is different in that there the Gernails appear to imbibe it with mother's milk.


Well I think all this would have been prevented if the materialistic Superior Hans saw a hugely developed India which is comparable to their own (along with a strong leadership not people like banditji). It would made them act cautiously in relation to India.

Like you know, their 14T economy to our say 12T economy. I think the reason their gobar times flaunts the 14T economy is because they really believe having a larger economy will mean overwhelming victory with no loss to them.

We can have a limited conflict to throw them out of territories now but in the long run if we want to deter them from engaging in these foolish adventurism, we have to show them that they aren't that superior. Which means having a larger economy, influence and military than them. The materialistic Superior Hans will definitely pause when it will look at Indian cities, companies, infrastructure, military, space tech and see that they are better than theirs. Their perceived sense of superiority will be taken away and they will like to tread cautiously like they do with USA and Japan.

Same is the case with Pakistan. Up until late 1990s our economies were comparable. And they being TFTA thought 1 Paki=10 Indians. But since last 20 years, it has been replaced with a inferiority complex mainly because of the economic development that made our country race ahead of theirs. They look at our space tech and other achievements (which our people are always quick to rub it in their faces) and feel insecure/jealous. And now despite their bravado, they inherently know winning war with India is impossible. But still, I must admit they are still stupid and many of them still dream of ruling Delhi ( and paki army disagrees with them). Which I don't think will be the case with the Superior Hans.

Lastly, I believe rapid development will act as a deterrent against any future aggression from China. This is best time to chase that goal with as much strength possible. Let the history write how Chinese awakened a sleeping tiger and how the apex predator chased them down.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby mahadevbhu » 02 Jul 2020 22:00

srin wrote:
mahadevbhu wrote:Guys all the ranges of our missiles are curtailed for public consumption and to espouse a defensive posture. The ranges of all missiles from prithvi onwards are multiple times what is publicly proclaimed. Brahmos is tomahawk like range wise. No need to worry about even conventional responses. We don't have any problems in responding correctly. What we do have a problem in is winning the war. We can possibly win the engagement locally..but winning a war is impossible.


Brahmos has tomahawk range ? Is that in lo-lo mode or in hi-lo mode or in pure ballistic mode ? And any sources you can provide ?

No sources. But brahmos is 1000 km range and Agni series is all ICBM ranges. The physics works and you can add more fuel to the tanks. Make no mistake.


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