India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

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CRamS
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby CRamS » 04 Jul 2020 22:39

Indeed, both sides need a 'face saver'. I agree that its galling to say India needs a face saver when its the victim, but as you say, dislodging the Chincoms from finger areas will be very very tough if at all.

This is where I feel there is some kind of an internal tussle between the Indian establishment as well. I have seen Col Binny as also retd. Col Kulkarni say that Chinese encroachments into finger areas are routine and all their structures are not permanent don't signify an 'occupational intent' per se. On the other side, even those that are somewhat neutral and don't hate ModiJi like say Brahma Chellany differ. They say Chincoms have encroached big time and have built permanent posts and bunkers and are in a commanding position.
Last edited by CRamS on 04 Jul 2020 23:14, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby srin » 04 Jul 2020 22:41

nam wrote:I do not see the Chinis agreeing to any line, unless we physically occupy it.

A 15T GDP country giving away land under it's control has never happened, nor I see it happening in the future.


^^^ They don't need to agree to any line. Let's say there is a war between us, what should our objectives be ? I'd be really really disappointed if the only outcome is establishing status quo ante. I'd want to establish a defensible and an advantageous border. What should it be ?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby fanne » 04 Jul 2020 23:06

We come full circle then don't we- Free Tibet!!
Perhaps not our fight (then whose it is? Our dharmic brothers are getting crushed), if it is because we don't have the might yet, then yes, but it is our fight. Tibet has been a buffer and better made one asap, this will then perhaps allow both China and India to rise. Else the choice is only for 1 to rise, and if that is the case, 1 has already risen. It cannot be both, and if we have to rise, sorry China has to leave Tibet.
If we leave Tibet out, what is our objective? Well if we win the war, then least should be the map that we officially claim. I would further rationalize (and it will be only one way rationalization, we take where required) the border to make it naturally defendable. Also the right to all the waters of our river.
Tibet was never Chinese. Yes might is right, but if might is with us, then we must be right.
One last thing - I am tired of hearing this 15T GDP thing - China can make a batti out of it and shove it where it should be be shoved. For the Indians buying that line - what can I say
Last edited by fanne on 04 Jul 2020 23:41, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby arshyam » 04 Jul 2020 23:11

srin wrote:I think Dileep's question is quite profound. Think beyond this current situation.

Where do we want the Indo-Tibet border to be ? Forget all the claim lines. Which is the line that will give us the most strategic advantage, is most strategically defensible for next many decades ?

If wishes were horses, I'd want to have the border in Ladakh near the Kun Lun mountains to the west, take over the valley north of KK pass and thence onto the Shaksgam valley - bordering Xinjiang, and in the south, extend the line to the *east* of Pangong all the way to Mt. Kailash.
In Sikkim sector, I want to take over the Chumbi valley.
In Arunachal Pradesh, I want the border to be much much north and east to encompass the Brahmaputra valley before the "great bend".

Chumbi valley for sure. It would remove a persistent threat to the chicken's neck area, and we control the heights anyway. Similarly, cutting off G-219 wherever possible - Demchok offers the best chance to do this.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby CRamS » 04 Jul 2020 23:14

Did anybody watch the interview Rahul Kanwal did with some Chincom lady on India Today couple of days back.

I don't have the link. But the lady's views mirrored my thinking and experience with Chincoms. She was contemptuous of the notion that India is any kind of strategic competitor to Chincoms and this crisis was because of that.

She said Chincoms see India as no competition and they consider the mighty USA as their competitor.

And her reasoning was that India was trying to be too uppity by encroaching on Chincom territories and rearing its head by building infrastructure and revoking 370 etc. How dare you pipsqueak SDREs behave this way towards the other mighty super power China. This is thinking among Chincom strategists according to her.

Some resident Chincoms in India like former 'diplomat' Bhadrakumar echo this view. His recommendation is that India stop being delusional about taking on China and instead negotiate a face saving way out and benefit from Chincom cooperation.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby fanne » 04 Jul 2020 23:18

g219 runs almost 50-70 km away in all of HP and UK border, where PLAAF and PLA presence is minimum. Decide few areas and make a dash for it.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby V_Raman » 04 Jul 2020 23:22

If they are a super power - why do they cowardly tactics to rush to the LAC - they dont go together...

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby fanne » 04 Jul 2020 23:24

CRAMs, you watch so much of NDTV and then changed to IT. The fact to know in the interview is this - The anchor another Rahul, had one of his relative (a former 1 start Indian General) rooting for Siachin to be handed over to TSP. The owner of that channel has made perhaps the highest number of attempt to launch a failed pappu. The fact that these group of people own a newspaper does not make them neutral or news/opinion worthy. They are 5th column masquerading as 4th estate people.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby arshyam » 04 Jul 2020 23:26

Is the Pangong lake navigable throughout its length? Being a salt-water lake, it may not freeze that easily, though Google shows some ice formation east of the Khurnak chicken's neck.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby kumarn » 04 Jul 2020 23:30

Dileep wrote:What would be our objective when we go kinetic with SHA?

To answer this, we need to know what was agreed by us in 1962 ceasefire. Our objective will not be beyond what we formally agreed. Our nature prevents us from going beyond. Dharma does that to us onlee.


Nature of current political leadership (including the nsa) is such that if war happens we will go offensive, not defensive. So aksai chin will come into play. But i dont think our military and political classes are sufficiently integrated in thought process. I don't know whether our military will or has proposed a defensible line if we were to reclaim territories. It will most likely be a vague idea of getting back as much of our claims as possible.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby williams » 04 Jul 2020 23:32

fanne wrote:We come full circle then don't we- Free Tibet!!
Perhaps not our fight (the whose it is? Our dharmic brothers are getting crushed), if it is because we dont have the might yet, then yes, but it is our fight. Tibet has been a buffer and better made one asap, this will then perhaps allow both China and India to rise. Else the choice is only for 1 to rise, and if that is the case, 1 has already risen. It cannot be both, and if we have to rise, sorry China has to leave Tibet.
If we leave Tibet out, what is our objective? Well if we win the war, then least should be the map that we officially claim. I would further rationalize (and it will be only one wat rationalization, we take where required) the border to make it naturally defendable. Also the right to all the waters of our river.
Tibet was never Chinese. Yes might is right, but if might is with us, then we must be right.
One last thing - I am tired of hearing this 15T GDP thing - China can make a batti out of it and shove it where it should be be shoved. For the Indians buying that line - what can I say


I think a border settlement where China Keeps Tibet and G219 road. We need access to GB through Karakoram Pass. That means access to Trans-Karakoram Tract, Shaksgam valley all the way to Karakoram highway. Basically paves way for us to take over GB. The rest of LAC becomes the boundary with some give and take. It means Chins giving up on their Taller than mountain friends period. We will shut up about Tibet. Even Dalai Lama is only seeking autonomy there why should we bother. We simply don't have the capacity today to take Tibet.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby amar_p » 04 Jul 2020 23:38

India had a 48h window after the June 15th clashes to retaliate in Galwan and other areas in Ladakh. Any such action during this period could have been justified as "punitive" and "preemptive" against an aggressor who broke the agreed rules of disengagement and instigated violence. But that window is gone now.

China would be very wary and will not offer another such excuse to India by initiating any action. Especially now, when Xi is said to be facing some internal dissent while Modi's support has only strengthened, the world's opinion turning against China and tilting towards India visibly and vocally.

India is happy to keep mobilising and stare them down while our border roads and other infrastructure keeps improving. The current stalemate is favourable to India operationally and optically.

I'm not sure China anticipated this turn of events, no matter how much they read "the fArt of War". So if anyone needs a face saving its squarely China.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby george » 04 Jul 2020 23:58

fanne wrote:We come full circle then don't we- Free Tibet!!
Perhaps not our fight (then whose it is? Our dharmic brothers are getting crushed), if it is because we don't have the might yet, then yes, but it is our fight. Tibet has been a buffer and better made one asap, this will then perhaps allow both China and India to rise. Else the choice is only for 1 to rise, and if that is the case, 1 has already risen. It cannot be both, and if we have to rise, sorry China has to leave Tibet.
If we leave Tibet out, what is our objective? Well if we win the war, then least should be the map that we officially claim. I would further rationalize (and it will be only one way rationalization, we take where required) the border to make it naturally defendable. Also the right to all the waters of our river.
Tibet was never Chinese. Yes might is right, but if might is with us, then we must be right.
One last thing - I am tired of hearing this 15T GDP thing - China can make a batti out of it and shove it where it should be be shoved. For the Indians buying that line - what can I say


Tibet cannot be freed by war. The expanse of Tibet is too large to do so. However one of the outcomes of the coming conflict if it materializes must be to occupy at least a couple of thousand square kilometers of Tibetan territory beyond the Mcmohan line, hold that territory beyond whatever ceasefire is agreed to and then establish the Tibetan government in exile in that territory and call it Tibet. Get them to the UN to apply for country membership and declare the rest of Tibet as Occupied territory by China. This is how to dump the One China Policy in the trash.

There have been a lot of questions on what Indian Armed forces objectives should be, my 3 cents...

1) Take back at least some part of Aksai Chin to reestablish our firm claim (if unable to take all of AC)
2) Take back Manasarovar and establish a buffer
3) Occupy a 2K - 10K sq km area to establish Tibetan Government in Exile.

In the process of achieving the above we may also lose out something elsewhere not counting the enormous human and capital cost. And no one US or Russia is going to help us here until we have achieved something tangible, but they may step in to force a stop and then we have to have the balls to not relent and return captured territory.

Maybe fancy objectives but more realistic than blockading world trade at malacca or freeing Tibet

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby amar_p » 05 Jul 2020 00:15

I think if India stops insisting on restoring status quo ante in Panang Tso Finger 4 to Finger 8 area, China is ready to back off and claim victory showing the China map and symbols they drew on the ground as proof of the victory. Objectively speaking it would be one, not withstanding the tactical advantages it may or may not procure them. And for this very same reason, India will not let them off the hook.

Indian side may think that a reasonable way out could be for both sides to declare the F4-F8 area as a DMZ, China agreeing to efface those markings as a gesture of peace and goodwill and withdraw until Sirijap. Both sides can then move on to demobilise across the LAC in all areas in Ladakh. Xi might then be able to sell this internally as having taught India a lesson to not nurture any dreams of land grab having built DS-DBO road etc. and having hardened their troops for future conflicts. India can similarly sell this as a victory having stalled and pushed back the Chinese. Overall a victory of sorts for both sides. My gut feel is that this is what we are negotiating for at the moment, if not as the preferred outcome, at least as an acceptable compromise.

But Xi is not ready to declare the F4-F8 area as a DMZ because :
A. PLA would definitely posture that they could have avenged the Glawan nose bleed, but Xi developed cold feet and backed off without giving them an opportunity to fight for real - and Xi can't afford that to happen
B. In his mind, conceding even half a victory to a "smaller" India would be tantamount to defeat.

And it would indeed be one, since having initiated this stand off and attempted land grab, wanting to stop India from building border roads, having tried to teach India a lesson at Galwan, China has failed in all its objectives so far. What else they hope to achieve going forward in this situation remains a mystery.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby amar_p » 05 Jul 2020 00:38

1) Take back at least some part of Aksai Chin to reestablish our firm claim (if unable to take all of AC)
2) Take back Manasarovar and establish a buffer
3) Occupy a 2K - 10K sq km area to establish Tibetan Government in Exile.


That would require nothing short of a comprehensive defeat of the PLA.

The only way to reach Mansarovar is through the Lipulekh pass, where India has built a road, and Nepal has recently declared that region as its territory and published updated maps after a Nepalese parliamentary resolution. No doubt the Chinese know this and have manipulated Nepal to this effect. G219 also runs very close to Mansarovar, so it would need to be cut off further to the east which brings us all the way to Doklam/Arunachal region.

IFF India wants to really go all out, we must go kinetic in Arunachal. If G219 is cut off there, Lhasa and AC will be impossible to hold on to.

When that happens China will quickly ditch its NFU.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Manish_Sharma » 05 Jul 2020 00:44

fanne wrote:CRAMs, you watch so much of NDTV and then changed to IT. The fact to know in the interview is this - The anchor another Rahul, had one of his relative (a former 1 start Indian General) rooting for Siachin to be handed over to TSP.


Not just relative but Brig. (Retd.) Gurmeet Kanwal was FATHER OF RAHUL KANWAL. Here Gurmeet kanwal chummed up with porkistani brigadier asad hakeem to write an article urging Bharat to vacate Siachin to give push to manmohan-shyamSaran's dark project of handing over siachin to porkis-cheenis:
https://prod-ng.sandia.gov/techlib-noau ... 075670.pdf

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby LakshmanPST » 05 Jul 2020 00:47

It at all war starts, if we limit our objective to restoring Status quo, it will be a local war...
If our objective is to take over Gosthana, it will be a full-fledged war with China...
It will be a political decision...

Fact is, if at all we want Gosthana back, we have to fight the Chinis and there is no other way...
IMHO, if we limit the objective to restoring Status quo, we will be losing a once-in-a-generation opportunity to resolve this issue once and for all...

But a possible trade-off we can do with Cheenis after war is give them back North Eastern part of Ladakh, just short of G219 highway, and take the territory North of Karakoram Pass (just short of G219 highway in North), which will give us better access to Shaksgham Valley... Cheenis can keep their road but they will lose the strategic depth which they currently enjoy...
----
I doubt we have the capability to liberate Tibet coz. the more we move inside that land, the longer our supply lines will stretch... It will be a very big risk...
However, if at all war happens, India should officially throw its One-China policy in dust bin...
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby CRamS » 05 Jul 2020 00:49

fanne wrote:CRAMs, you watch so much of NDTV and then changed to IT. The fact to know in the interview is this - The anchor another Rahul, had one of his relative (a former 1 start Indian General) rooting for Siachin to be handed over to TSP. The owner of that channel has made perhaps the highest number of attempt to launch a failed pappu. The fact that these group of people own a newspaper does not make them neutral or news/opinion worthy. They are 5th column masquerading as 4th estate people.


I am with you that one should be careful in giving these 'neutral observer' certificates. For e.g., if one does not know Ajay Crooklaw's antecedents, and only knows him as a retd col, you can be led to believe that the slime ball is a 'neutral' observer.

But as much as Rahul Kanwal's late dad wanted to gift away Siachen, I think in the current crisis, he (Rahul Kanwal) has differentiated himself as a better informed, somewhat neutral anchor compared with many others. Dorkie is full of hot air and his debates are unwatchable, Rahul Shivshankar is good but he loses control of his shows with so many traitors on, Undy, less said the better (I have stopped watching), and I have not watched much of newsx, news18 etc.

The particular interviews I am referring to are 1) where he had a Chincom lady giving the CCP perspective, and 2) where he had that Uncle Tom Vipin Narang throw up the surrender flag and said Chincoms will keep fingers while relenting a bit on Galwan as a 'compromise', while Brahma Chellaney advocated the kinetic option. Jeff Smith, another pretty pro-India analyst said nothing lost in letting Chincoms keep the fingers but status quo ante elsewhere.

I was also referring to other interviews where he had on retd generals like Col Binny and and Col Kulkarni both of whom seemed to downplay Chincom encroachment into the finger areas. Retd generals Jaswal and Bakshi on the other hand are hawkish and insist on status quo ante everywhere and kinetic action otherwise.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby abhik » 05 Jul 2020 01:15

CRamS wrote:Indeed, both sides need a 'face saver'. I agree that its galling to say India needs a face saver when its the victim, but as you say, dislodging the Chincoms from finger areas will be very very tough if at all.

This is where I feel there is some kind of an internal tussle between the Indian establishment as well. I have seen Col Binny as also retd. Col Kulkarni say that Chinese encroachments into finger areas are routine and all their structures are not permanent don't signify an 'occupational intent' per se. On the other side, even those that are somewhat neutral and don't hate ModiJi like say Brahma Chellany differ. They say Chincoms have encroached big time and have built permanent posts and bunkers and are in a commanding position.


Part in bold is complete BS, they didn't draw a 80 meter china map + sign visible in sat images to signal it is a temporary structure - Its a signal to India, both political leadership and the Indian public that this is their territory and there is nothing India can do to change it. Either these folks have not come into grips with reality or they spinning the situation to prep the grounds for acceptance of "new status quo".

Added: Going by tweets of a lot of ex-forces, they are still mostly singing disengagement/deescalation (it will be a long process blah blah), I get the feeling most are not mentally ready to accept the possibility of a war with China.
Last edited by abhik on 05 Jul 2020 01:21, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Roop » 05 Jul 2020 01:18

Cain Marko wrote:What if India just maintains the current status on LAC and goes full throttle on GB? Following objectives:
1. Permanently Control or disrupt Pok terror infrastructure
2. Ditto with cpec.

How crucial is it for desh to get China totally out of finger 4-8 area? Compared to say, getting above objectives accomplished.


This is what I was thinking myself, and I think exactly what our guys have in mind for the immediate future (the next 4 weeks, say). Any action against China anywhere in Aksai Chin will only happen in response to some recklessness on their part -- like attacking DBO or the DSDBO road, for example.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby chola » 05 Jul 2020 01:48

abhik wrote:
CRamS wrote:Indeed, both sides need a 'face saver'. I agree that its galling to say India needs a face saver when its the victim, but as you say, dislodging the Chincoms from finger areas will be very very tough if at all.

This is where I feel there is some kind of an internal tussle between the Indian establishment as well. I have seen Col Binny as also retd. Col Kulkarni say that Chinese encroachments into finger areas are routine and all their structures are not permanent don't signify an 'occupational intent' per se. On the other side, even those that are somewhat neutral and don't hate ModiJi like say Brahma Chellany differ. They say Chincoms have encroached big time and have built permanent posts and bunkers and are in a commanding position.


Part in bold is complete BS, they didn't draw a 80 meter china map + sign visible in sat images to signal it is a temporary structure - Its a signal to India, both political leadership and the Indian public that this is their territory and there is nothing India can do to change it. Either these folks have not come into grips with reality or they spinning the situation to prep the grounds for acceptance of "new status quo".

Added: Going by tweets of a lot of ex-forces, they are still mostly singing disengagement/deescalation (it will be a long process blah blah), I get the feeling most are not mentally ready to accept the possibility of a war with China.



The time to act offensively should have been that first 48 hours of bloodshed as many have said. When the 10 was released by the chinis, it ratcheted everything down.

The 47 (or 120 according to some) PLA casualties are putting a bit of damper on the revenge call. The window has passed anyways. Too much has been built up for offensive action by either to be not bloody now.

It will be a logistics fight now.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby rsingh » 05 Jul 2020 01:56

China deployed 25 satellites to spot debris of Malaysian plane. I wonder how many sats they have deployed for Ladakh.Then there was a large scale model of Ladakh that was spotted on google map. I think it was topographical scale model of DBO area. They trained themselves long before.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 05 Jul 2020 02:02

I don't like her but this seems like data ... so have a look.

https://twitter.com/NMenonRao/status/12 ... 3966985217
Nirupama Menon Rao, निरुपमा राउ, بینظیر @NMenonRao

Not in maps or in the mind. Chinese diplomat Mao Siwei was China’s consul general in Kolkata. “The so-called LAC is just a concept and there is no such thing as a mutually agreed, impassable border line on the ground, in maps or in the mind,” he wrote in 2013.
If I read China’s actions correctly, she is more than ready to burn all boats with India and is just waiting for us to make “strategic miscalculations” (her words) before doing so.
The calculus of deterrence; time: 1961-62; from the White Papers exchanged between India and China. And the language of Chinese threat. See item one on this page when you open the website.
Today, the language is even more preachy and hostile, in my view.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 05 Jul 2020 02:07

Her views ...

https://twitter.com/NMenonRao/status/12 ... 6316567552
I read Chinese actions in #Ladakh as a significant trespass across the #LAC aimed at gaining tactical advantage and strategic depth in certain vantage points along the LAC as for 1/n
e.g Depsang Plain (a wide unimpeded plateau) that offers access to the #AksaiChin as also in reverse to areas on our side, #Galwan Valley (commanding heights over the Darbuk-#Shyok-#DBO Road), #Pangong Tso 2/n
But not a fresh territorial dispute over new areas of the UT of Ladakh (where they are already in possession of the Aksai Chin and areas south and east of Kongka La plus the Shaksgam Valley illegally ceded by Pakistan) 3/n
China is building advantage for itself in order to hinder access for India to areas under its (Chinese) control in the Aksai Chin and southern #Ladakh in the event of our trying to regain these areas lost to China in the 1950s and 1960s. A Chinese Maginot Line? 4/n
Think China planning to do this(secure more ‘defensive’ depth along LAC) for some years now (from 2010 at least). J&K (Reorganisation),statements at political level regarding regaining control of areas in PoK and Aksai Chin & alignment of Shyok-DBO Rd may have provided trigger 5/n
Now that Chinese are consolidating themselves in these pockets they r unlikely to withdraw unless both sides arrive at agreement to demilitarise/mutually disengage.This will require higher political direction. 6/n
In that case what happens to current alignment of Darbuk-Shyok-DBO Road? Can India and China create such a zone of disengagement building on the peace and tranquility protocols/CBMs of 1993,1996,2005,2012 and 2013? Or is the future a bleak one presaging recurrent instability?7/n
Possibility of China opening other fronts in event of deterioration in W. Sector cannot be ruled out.And in Arunachal Pradesh, as we have to the area in Aksai Chin, they claim many sq km of our territory &eye Tawang. This is a territorial ‘claim’. 8/n
Chinese PLA have always regretted their withdrawal from areas south of the McMahon Line after 1962 conflict. They regard this territory as sector of ‘largest dispute’. 9/n
In short, we should use diplomatic means to facilitate an agreement between the two militaries to achieve disengagement in areas where Ladakh LAC is subject to overlapping interpretations. The current problem in Ladakh is an LAC problem not a territorial claims issue. 10/n
History of 1962 has to be carefully read especially language/pattern of Chinese threat and action. China should think equally carefully. It should not sacrifice gains made in bilateral relationship with a power like India over last few decades.Sober choices hv to be made. 11/n
This is a challenge as Nehru said long ago that runs across the spine of Asia as two giant countries are involved. Repercussions all around for the Indo-Pacific. (Ends)


IF I read her correct ... her analysis.
1. PLA will not move back unless there is political direction at the highest levels.
2. Political direction will not come unless there is give and take (implied with the question "what happens to current alignment of Darbuk-Shyok-DBO Road?").
3. Her solution "In short, we should use diplomatic means to facilitate an agreement between the two militaries to achieve disengagement in areas where Ladakh LAC is subject to overlapping interpretations." ... "overlapping interpretations" is what got us here in the first place!
4. "overlapping interpretations" means what for DSDBO road? :roll:
5. Per her, the latest Chinese language is harsher than just before 1962. Hmm ...
Last edited by pankajs on 05 Jul 2020 02:13, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby abhik » 05 Jul 2020 02:07

Here's a good ready reckoner for PLA deployments along the "middle" sector of Ladakh (Dhemchok to south and DBO/Depsang to the north not shown) from open source data.
Image
My armchair 2 cents:-
1. Galwan Valley: the PLA in in a tactically difficult spot, will not be easy to breakout, might be the first to fall.
2. Between Galwan and Hotsprings: 2 dots here, apart from reinforcing either of these two positions, I'm not sure what other roles they can play.
3. HotSprings/Gorga: This offers an opportunity for them to breakout and also for us to do the same, they have built roads that lead to rear areas of both Pangong to the south and AC to the north.
4. Pangong (North Shore): Huge presence on the F4 and beyond. They could quickly remove our low lying positions in F2-F4 from the heights they command (I'm assuming we have at least occupied heights at F2 as the next line d defence). It will be hard for them to move further from there. I think the bigger scope is to launch amphibious assaults, they already have a dozen or more boats stationed there, each of which can probably transport a couple dozen troops. So we are talking about a company or two of troops that can land anywhere, upto 40km behind the line unless intercepted. Of course this goes both ways with the other end of the lake leading directly to G219!
5. Spanggur (Chushul): I'm dhoti shibbring about this one, I'm sure it will be well protected but a breakout from them here give them access to the road to Dhemchok.

Added: 3.5: The dot between HotSprings and Pangong has a road that runs close to our road to the north of the lake, that could be axis for them to cut off most of our positions in the north shore of the lake, of course the reverse can also be done.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby VKumar » 05 Jul 2020 02:19

Don't think that China ever fought as an ally of anyone. In the Vietnam war, China provided material and training but did not directly enter the fight. It issued more than 400 warnings to USA !
If India goes for GB, Chinese interest will be to protect its territory especially Aksai Chin. So long as India doesn't attack Aksai Chin, the Chinese will not enter the fight, but will supply material to Pakistan.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Roop » 05 Jul 2020 02:24

Guddu wrote:... I would not be surprised if India takes back GB, under the pretext of fighting China.


Yes, that's what I hope happens.

I doubt China has the cojones and motivation to fight India in GB. India would be fighting for its own country, while China would be fighting in a foreign country.


Well, India has to retake G/B regardless of whether China fights or not. Dangerous to assume they won't fight.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby kirpalbasra » 05 Jul 2020 02:31

[quote="amar_p"]I think if India stops insisting on restoring status quo ante in Panang Tso Finger 4 to Finger 8 area, China is ready to back off and claim victory showing the China map and symbols they drew on the ground as proof of the victory. Objectively speaking it would be one, not withstanding the tactical advantages it may or may not procure them. And for this very same reason, India will not let them off the hook
If chinses do not retreat from this area then Congress will have a field day .

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ks_sachin » 05 Jul 2020 02:31

arshyam wrote:Is the Pangong lake navigable throughout its length? Being a salt-water lake, it may not freeze that easily, though Google shows some ice formation east of the Khurnak chicken's neck.

I believe it freezes.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ks_sachin » 05 Jul 2020 02:32

Roop wrote:
Guddu wrote:... I would not be surprised if India takes back GB, under the pretext of fighting China.


Yes, that's what I hope happens.

I doubt China has the cojones and motivation to fight India in GB. India would be fighting for its own country, while China would be fighting in a foreign country.


Well, India has to retake G/B regardless of whether China fights or not. Dangerous to assume they won't fight.

What is GB?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby abhik » 05 Jul 2020 02:36

pankajs wrote:Her views ...

https://twitter.com/NMenonRao/status/12 ... 6316567552
...
Now that Chinese are consolidating themselves in these pockets they r unlikely to withdraw unless both sides arrive at agreement to demilitarise/mutually disengage.This will require higher political direction. 6/n

...
In short, we should use diplomatic means to facilitate an agreement between the two militaries to achieve disengagement in areas where Ladakh LAC is subject to overlapping interpretations. The current problem in Ladakh is an LAC problem not a territorial claims issue. 10/n



The build up happened due to "higher Political direction" onlee. There is no need to facilitate an agreement "between the two militaries", neither PLA not IA are rouge forces not under respective political control, the agreement need to be between the political heads. And maybe the respected diplomutt should give us insights on how we can get them to disengage via "give and take" negotiations unless we will have to do most of the giving and the chinese will do most of the taking.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ajay_hk » 05 Jul 2020 02:38

ks_sachin wrote:
Roop wrote:
Yes, that's what I hope happens.



Well, India has to retake G/B regardless of whether China fights or not. Dangerous to assume they won't fight.

What is GB?

Gilgit-Baltistan

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Roop » 05 Jul 2020 02:43

A good pst which I meant to respond to a couple of days ago but got distacted by something else.

srin wrote:There have been several posts here in the past page or two (this thread moves quite fast) that the Chinese have gamed this scenario. I find it unlikely.
...

At a strategic level too, they have lost the plot. ... This is strategic foolishness they seem to have imbibed from TSP.


Agree with all of that.

Now here (emphasis mine):

Nothing good in India happens unless there is a crisis, and they have just motivated the Govt to act in long term for a bit of short term cost - which people at this time are very much willing to pay. Chinese have thus presented a great gift to us. If they have gamed this, then there must be some well-wisher of India at high levels of CCP/PLA though Occam's razor would say they are just incompetent at the top levels.


Re. the bolded part, may I refer you to Robert Conquest's Laws of Politics, specifically this one: "The behavior of any bureaucratic organization can best be understood by assuming that it is controlled by a secret cabal of its enemies".

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/conquests-laws-john-derbyshire/

https://spinstrangenesscharm.wordpress.com/laws-of-politics/

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Anoop » 05 Jul 2020 02:59

The Chinese access to Demchok is much easier from the south along the Demchok River valley that runs almost parallel to G219 west of Ngari. So they don't have to access it via Spanggur.

Conversely, that terrain is quite favorable to the use of armor, allowing us to threaten the G219 south west of Ngari.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Cain Marko » 05 Jul 2020 03:58

chola wrote:It will be a logistics fight now.

Yes. At least until the time they launch an offensive on GB. It's too late and unnecessary to respond tit for tat. The Chinese and pakistanis have given enough reasons for the past 70 years to retake what's legitimately India's. Casus belli indeed.

If I'm reading Modi correct, the response will be unexpected, escalatory and quite in alignment with his manifesto...GB is part of Kashmir and Kashmir if party of Bharat.

My guess is that he'll do it when time it right. But I won't speculate on that and any details.
Last edited by Cain Marko on 05 Jul 2020 04:07, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Cain Marko » 05 Jul 2020 04:01

Roop wrote:
Guddu wrote:... I would not be surprised if India takes back GB, under the pretext of fighting China.



I doubt China has the cojones and motivation to fight India in GB. India would be fighting for its own country, while China would be fighting in a foreign country.


Well, India has to retake G/B regardless of whether China fights or not. Dangerous to assume they won't fight.

Such a move will give the Chinese a chance to back out quietly pretending that they've won in Aksai Chin. I don't think they have the stomach for a fight that'll cripple their economy. All those "rival to America" ambitions will vanish if they decide to step into a shooting match at that level.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 05 Jul 2020 04:03

https://twitter.com/ShivAroor/status/12 ... 4486610949
Shiv Aroor @ShivAroor

With officially cleared images of air assets visible in Ladakh today, my recent piece on the Apache’s operational debut in the Himalayas
Image

https://twitter.com/drapr007/status/1279433074804064258
Dr. APR @drapr007

#BREAKING : Addiyional 24 advance combat motorboats are operational now in Pangong Tso with the help of specialized team of Indian Navy. Few new toys received from the best friend also arrived here.

https://twitter.com/ani_digital/status/ ... 1898766337
ANI Digital @ani_digital

Indian Air Force geared up for combat role in China border area
Image

Read @ANI Story | https://aninews.in/news/national/

Ramp up and signalling ... best friend could only be Israel.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Y I Patel » 05 Jul 2020 05:11

Demchok - arguably India's most vulnerable outpost

If you look at the 3D map, "New" Demchok is the southern end of a wide and flat valley, ideal for tank warfare. Looks like a good place for India to go on an offensive? Wrong. It is ideal terrain for armoured ops, but in this case India is seriously on the defensive, and I hope I am wrong but my grim conclusion is that the armoured brigade devoted to the Demchok area may be to protect against a Chinese armoured thrust past Koyul and Dungti.

First thing to realize is that the wide valley from Chushul all the way south to Demchok presents an optical illusion of accessibility for India. From south of Dungti, where Indus turns westwards, the west bank of Indus is the LAC, and the course of the Indus is actually squeezed almost right up to the ridges and valley openings to the west. Needless to say, there are NO bridges across the Indus in this area to afford India access to the eastern banks. The photo below shows just how precarious India's control over the area is, and imagine for yourself where this is before you read further...

Image

This is a Chinese observation tower overlooking Fukche ALG. Note that it is almost close enough to be the ATC tower for that airstrip! Here's the Tribune article from 2013 which carried that image:

Deja Vu

This also explains why Nyoma has been chosen as a prospective IAF Air Base - it lies to the west of the great westward bend in Indus, behind ridges that shield it from direct Chinese observation and domination.

How did things get this way? Pre '62, India occupied positions to the west and south of Demchok. Note that Demchok, which is a historically acknowledged part of Ladakh, is now with China. After 62 India clawed its way back to New Demchok, which is north of a nullah that separates it from historical Demchok. Two vital passes were lost in 62 - Jara La that is a few km NW of Demchok (google Jara La Tibet) and Dumchele La (or Changa La) - 33°2'24"N 79°19'48"E, a few km to the NW of Fukche. Control of these two passes allows China to dominate the entire area south of Koyul and leading up to Demchok.

The happy news is, Demchok is no longer as vulnerable as it once was. After several years of quiet work (a statement that I make based on travel blogs from years before that imply something was happening), BRO opened a motorable road through Umling La. You can google Umling La for more information, but what this road does is that it affords a sheilded access right up to a few miles north of Demchok. This was no mean feat; Umling La is now the highest motorable pass in the world according to some. It will hugely help in the defense of not just Demchok, but of the entire LAC that runs to the south and east of Demchok up to Ukdungle and Chumar. By the time the LAC reaches Chumar, the geography turns in favor of India - this is the only part of LAC where the Indian approach is through plains while the Chinese approach is through mountains over barely motorable trails.

So this is one way of looking at the Dungti - Demchok area. But for an optimist, there may be another way to think of the military options available to India in this area. Think of Kargil before 1999, when the heights to its west were contested, and a very vulnerable Indian lifeline passed through an area under direct enemy observation. But those heights were won, even if it was a bloody victory and an avoidable war. Those heights were won due to India's unique and unmatched strengths in mountain warfare. So if you look at the broad Indus valley, you can see India's vulnerabilities. But if you look at the ranges to the east and overlooking Demchok, you might want to recollect Kargil...

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby samirdiw » 05 Jul 2020 05:57

williams wrote:Even Dalai Lama is only seeking autonomy there why should we bother.


This is the strategic mistake in our thinking. We should bother because its in our long term interest to keep the Chinese as far away from this part of the world. The Dalai Lama and some other Lamas have nothing to do with this.

williams wrote:We simply don't have the capacity today to take Tibet.


We may or may not have the capacity. I have asked on this forum what exactly is the capacity we need to take Tibet but haven't seen an objective analysis or even an attempt at it(even a poor one). Folks would rather discuss the latest nonsense some journalist has said which is very time wasting and of no use for understanding of the situation we are in. I don't have the ability to analyse the tactical but surely some experts here might have.

Our strategic objective must be to take 50% of historical Tibet (note Historical not the moth eaten one). Then both the countries will be equi-distant from their population centers and will be the only way a long term balance can exist else the moment one side becomes equal in strength to the other it will not accept the other so close to its historical boundary.

Even if part of Historical Tibet is liberated(or incorporated with true autonomy) we must claim land upto the Brahmaputra/Yarlung Tsangpo into the mainland above Nepal (thus surrounding Nepal on all sides) and Kunlun like another poster said. Don't repeat the mistake like we did with Bangladesh of not taking parts of CHT as quid pro quo for their freedom. The impact it would have on North Easterners lives and our trade with South East Asia would have been significant.

Just because the Chinese have full Tibet now doesn't mean we have to accept it like god ordained. Last 70 yrs is insignificant in the larger scheme. We have to forge our own destiny and not accepting the state of affairs as now is part of it.

A lot of our problems are due to our lack of strategic objectives and accepting things are they are. We then get stuck with these dozens of tactical issues where we have no clear answers. This has to change so that we don't put our future generations through the same problems.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby srin » 05 Jul 2020 06:35

VKumar wrote:Don't think that China ever fought as an ally of anyone. In the Vietnam war, China provided material and training but did not directly enter the fight. It issued more than 400 warnings to USA !
If India goes for GB, Chinese interest will be to protect its territory especially Aksai Chin. So long as India doesn't attack Aksai Chin, the Chinese will not enter the fight, but will supply material to Pakistan.


They fought in the Korean War but that was long ago, and I expect there will be massive social and political upheavals if they are used as cannon fodder again.


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