India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

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chetak
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby chetak » 06 Jul 2020 23:23

amar_p wrote:If there is so much difference between Indian & Chinese statements, then how much the future Chinese actions will correspond to the Indian side's understanding and expectations is anybody's guess.

More rough waters ahead.


the language used is standard boilerplate diplomatese and the meaning is crystal clear to those for whom it is meant.

the two statements are as different as chalk and cheese.

It is not India's diplomatic habit to use strong language but the chinese have made a bad habit of it.

All meetings are carefully minuted and recorded and India will state its unequivocal position at the meeting

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Philip » 06 Jul 2020 23:24

Spot on Chetak! The " Reds under our beds" is a fact. For quite some time China apologists and appeasers have been very vocal mirroring the faltu image of the Chin face. China the benevolent triad mountain master or dragon head of Asia to wholm we must all kowtow to. The benevolent dragon wil allocate the pecking order of nations and the protocols and etiquette to observe. Servility and obedience the most important. These red " Quis- Lings" must be outed and routed ,exposed for their infidelity to the Indian state and put in their proper place the dustbin.

China is not talking to India it is talking at India.A world of difference. There is no understanding or spirit of compromise,it is China's way or the Karakorum Highway.
It would've been better had our Pres. and PM greeted HH the Dalai Lama on his b'day instead. That would've been a message giving the Chins the Delhi belly!
Last edited by Philip on 07 Jul 2020 02:03, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby schinnas » 06 Jul 2020 23:25

chetak wrote:why did India not do this



Ken Juster@USAmbIndia·11h

On behalf of the U.S. Government & the American people, we congratulate His Holiness @DalaiLama on his 85th Birthday.

It is our privilege to work with His Holiness to advance the values that Americans & Tibetans share. Stay tuned for my remarks as Chief Guest.


Lt. Governor of Ladakh and Ram Madhav both wished H.H. The Dalai Lama on his birthday.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby chetak » 06 Jul 2020 23:28

schinnas wrote:
chetak wrote:why did India not do this





Lt. Governor of Ladakh and Ram Madhav both wished H.H. The Dalai Lama on his birthday.


It was for the GoI to do so officially.

especially at this time and in this context.

The bear has poked you, why shy away now from poking him back

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Sonugn » 06 Jul 2020 23:37

800 metres: Finally a figure on what Chinese Army claims in Galwan
n excerpts from minutes of one of the meetings between the two sides, India Today can now confirm that China has been explicitly staking claim to territory up to 800 metres into the Indian side from Patrol Point 14.

What the Chinese have begun articulating as their claim since April this year is 800 metres from what was agreed upon 61 years ago.

As India Today understands it, this is one of the key reasons why, in the absence of more sustained disengagement and verifications, the Army regards token actions as 'four steps forward, two steps back'. That, incidentally, is precisely how the Army is seeing the Pangong Tso situation play out.

While a small number of Chinese positions have withdrawn from the Finger 4 ridgeline, the fact that a 'pullback' could be to Finger 5 still makes this a serious situation, but gives the Chinese the opportunity to claim they have de-escalated. In the Army's appreciation, this is precisely what is meant by changing the status quo.

India Today has learnt that in the last 3 weeks, while morale remains very high, lower cadres and young officers of the Army have openly raised the issue with their superiors over whether the Indian Army, a force trained for border defence at all costs, should be bogged down with the task of border management and attendant protocols.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Raveen » 07 Jul 2020 00:12

Sonugn wrote:800 metres: Finally a figure on what Chinese Army claims in Galwan

India Today has learnt that in the last 3 weeks, while morale remains very high, lower cadres and young officers of the Army have openly raised the issue with their superiors over whether the Indian Army, a force trained for border defence at all costs, should be bogged down with the task of border management and attendant protocols.


Here comes the BIF India Today group of Siachen Kanwal fame

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby abhik » 07 Jul 2020 00:35

They appear to have released a TV doc with footage from Galwan (haven't seen it yet, its on their site, but i'll wait for someone to upload it to YT)
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#China's CCTV4 news network releases a special program titled "How did #China defend the sovereignty and stabilize the situation in the #GalwanValley incident?" .. shows on ground images with alleged visuals of #India's attempts to create an alleged helipad #IndiaChinaStandOff

https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/12 ... 4168499202

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby amar_p » 07 Jul 2020 00:49

The photos posted earlier on this thread indicating tunnels etc. The Chinese know very clearly their supply chain weaknesses across the border. I would expect them to continue building huge interconnected subterranean spaces to store supplies, troops, tanks etc. Has been done before. And the Chinese definitely have the capability. They could create a mix of real tunnels and decoys to waste air strikes etc.

The next time they attack, they will first attack with troops & supplies visible to satellite/drone surveillance, and even let us believe we have ruptured their supply lines along G219 or Tibetan railroad. When Indian troops believe they have the upper hand, the tunnels will disgorge their contents and try to overwhelm us.

Since we can anticipate such a capability, it would put Indian military planners in a guessing game of what they can expect to encounter and when, and dissuade us from making confident aggressive plans. A kind of tactical deterrence which can be quite effective I'd say.

May sound far fetched, but its anything but.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby rsingh » 07 Jul 2020 00:50

I wonder if such transport may be of any use for our individual posts along with LAC .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Mx2A3o-DUw

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby amar_p » 07 Jul 2020 01:14

Its perhaps time to move from feet on the ground surveillance to a mix of patrols and an array of remotely operated devices such as image/IR/movement detectors, drones, helis and satellites. They can also better look across into the enemy territory to see whats happening several 10s to 100s of kms across the border. If transgressions occur, they can be recorded and analysed more easily.

Our BSF should add a huge state of the art & integrated remote sensing, monitoring capability with some badass AI to process the huge amount of multiform data generated. Plus remote intervention capability that helps us preempt and punish transgressions from air and air+ground.

The cost of putting a trained, equipped, acclimatised soldier up there and support him is humongous, and we will still be risking his life.

Sending patrols across precarious ledges in extreme conditions cannot be the only way to guard our borders in 21st century.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nachiket » 07 Jul 2020 01:23

Rs_singh wrote:Well according to what they agreed and images in “osint” both sides are moving back 2km from clash points, specifically in the Galwan valley. This implies we are moving back in own territory and they are moving back in claimed territory. This is clear from the words used in either official statements as well. Ours is reconciliatory and their’s is accusatory. Take what you will, this is far from over.

Their intrusion at PP-14 was some 400 odd meters into our side of the LAC. If they move back 2km, that means they will have to move back further into their own side.

In any case, this could be another delaying tactic. That's what we should assume this is anyway looking at the way they have behaved.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rs_singh » 07 Jul 2020 01:54

nachiket wrote:
Rs_singh wrote:Well according to what they agreed and images in “osint” both sides are moving back 2km from clash points, specifically in the Galwan valley. This implies we are moving back in own territory and they are moving back in claimed territory. This is clear from the words used in either official statements as well. Ours is reconciliatory and their’s is accusatory. Take what you will, this is far from over.

Their intrusion at PP-14 was some 400 odd meters into our side of the LAC. If they move back 2km, that means they will have to move back further into their own side.

In any case, this could be another delaying tactic. That's what we should assume this is anyway looking at the way they have behaved.


400m from LAC, correct. Our claim lines are 5km to the East hey, where the PLA is squatting right now. Just to be very clear. So we are moving further inwards on sovereign Indian land, and they are moving back on Indian claim land but not Chinese sovereign soil. This nuance is lost to many.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Raveen » 07 Jul 2020 01:59

Rs_singh wrote:
nachiket wrote:Their intrusion at PP-14 was some 400 odd meters into our side of the LAC. If they move back 2km, that means they will have to move back further into their own side.

In any case, this could be another delaying tactic. That's what we should assume this is anyway looking at the way they have behaved.


400m from LAC, correct. Our claim lines are 5km to the East hey, where the PLA is squatting right now. Just to be very clear. So we are moving further inwards on sovereign Indian land, and they are moving back on Indian claim land but not Chinese sovereign soil. This nuance is lost to many.


Land you haven't controlled in the last 50 years, right?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby kirpalbasra » 07 Jul 2020 02:01

Just my thoughts. the chinks have there face save , They have turned a loss to there advantage and you have to admire then for that . Let me explain their original plan went up in smoke after the set back and Indian deployment. Game at a draw now swollen rivers and they realise they deed to talk so a withdraw .What has India gained sweet f all. Now there counter punch they have claimed large part of little Bhutan . They are like a pit bull terrier who once takes a bite will not let go a dangerous dog the only way to release the grip mis to kill it. That applies to the chins. India need to keep the gunpowder dry and the knifes sharp . There goal is a road to the bay of bangal no matter how long it takes.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rs_singh » 07 Jul 2020 02:05

Raveen,

Land neither side has controlled for 60yrs, except by sending deterrence and recci patrols.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 07 Jul 2020 02:09

Deans wrote:
Mukesh.Kumar wrote:
Now, that we are over that, let’s figure out how this can be worked out:
..........

Appreciate questions for further analysis and debate[/i]


Mukesh ji, I'm glad you posted this. I would personally have liked to reply to all the posts of liberating GB / POK or Tibet as `neither possible nor desirable', for pretty much the same reasons you elaborated on.
There is a great deal we can do to harm Pak and China, even with all the deficiencies we have, but this is not one of them.


Thank you sir for putting in a few lines what took me three long posts to convey.

It's not that I am saying that liberation of Tibet or GB will be impossible. A $10 trillion economy can make many things,which seem fanciful today, come within our grasp. As long as there is realism and planning. But for the moment let's keep aside these fanciful notions.

And yes our objective should be to cause them real hurt with final goal being reclaiming these lands. For example can you imagine what a USD 1 bil p.a. investment in fifth column activities in POK/ GB can do? If GoI actually ran the numbers then the conviction for doing this would be much stronger.
Last edited by Mukesh.Kumar on 07 Jul 2020 02:16, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 07 Jul 2020 02:13

williams wrote:
Mukesh Ji very good writeup on the logistics required to take over GB. The key take away from your post is that it is impossible for the Pakis to do the reverse. So then the question comes how a two-front war will succeed if the objective is to take over Ladakh or J&K for that matter. It seems more like one front war with troops tied up to defend the other front.


Sir, it's not possible for Pakistan to take away Ladakh through a land grab. Salami slicing/ "aman ka tamasha" accompanied by our naivette, yes.

I am not clear about what you mean buy the last two sentences. Mind elaborating a little?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Raveen » 07 Jul 2020 02:18

Rs_singh wrote:Raveen,

Land neither side has controlled for 60yrs, except by sending deterrence and recci patrols.



We have not sent patrols in 5 kms in, all the way to our claim line, not in the last decade we haven't. PP14 was the last patrol point we sent our patrols to.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ManuJ » 07 Jul 2020 02:28

Hopefully, as India performs the usual 'lessons learned' exercise from this conflict, the biggest lesson learned would be the urgent need to untangle the mess in defense procurement and to quickly get our MIC complex flourishing. GOI needs to find the right balance between public and private players and create a level-playing field for the private players. Successive DMs have tried to various degrees and failed and in the process we've wasted many years. It now needs direct PMO intervention and monitoring.

On indigenous front, hopefully we'll prioritize induction of LCH, Pinaka 2, 155 mm artillery guns and AD missiles in large numbers, along with a renewed and comprehensive focus on mechanized equipment, including getting the flagship 'Make in India' APCs/AFVs program off the ground.

We should also expect some new orders of American hardware like the Chinooks, Apaches and C-130J, assuming they proved their usefulness in mountain warfare. I'm sure India would love to get its hands on more C-17s too if it only could.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rs_singh » 07 Jul 2020 02:36

Raveen wrote:
Rs_singh wrote:Raveen,

Land neither side has controlled for 60yrs, except by sending deterrence and recci patrols.



We have not sent patrols in 5 kms in, all the way to our claim line, not in the last decade we haven't. PP14 was the last patrol point we sent our patrols to.



1.5km
, I had a typo in my original post. Our claim lines are 1.5 not 5km eastwards yet. Our LOP prohibit us from going any further is true for a certain nature of patrol, but our land extends 1.5km East yet, uncontested by China till May 2020. This is why we are in a bit of a pickle. We have, in effect, created a 2km+1.5km buffer zone on own land. The PLA is closer to our lines by 500m where we are now 3.5km off. This is only at Galwan.

And I wouldn’t be sure of not patrolling to claim point unless you know things I don’t.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby chetak » 07 Jul 2020 02:41

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LX2SOqpshmA


What happened on 15th June 2020 is out now



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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby vijayk » 07 Jul 2020 02:42

ManuJ wrote:Hopefully, as India performs the usual 'lessons learned' exercise from this conflict, the biggest lesson learned would be the urgent need to untangle the mess in defense procurement and to quickly get our MIC complex flourishing. GOI needs to find the right balance between public and private players and create a level-playing field for the private players. Successive DMs have tried to various degrees and failed and in the process we've wasted many years. It now needs direct PMO intervention and monitoring.

On indigenous front, hopefully we'll prioritize induction of LCH, Pinaka 2, 155 mm artillery guns and AD missiles in large numbers, along with a renewed and comprehensive focus on mechanized equipment, including getting the flagship 'Make in India' APCs/AFVs program off the ground.

We should also expect some new orders of American hardware like the Chinooks, Apaches and C-130J, assuming they proved their usefulness in mountain warfare. I'm sure India would love to get its hands on more C-17s too if it only could.


PLA is improving upon their plans every time.

We are stuck clueless and act stunned even after 3 years. it is same story every time.

True we improved border infra in the last 6 years but no plan to anticipate what enemy will do in 3 years.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 07 Jul 2020 02:49

Guys check this place out on Google Earth. Quite recent image. Located between G 219 and out Indian/UK border. The co-ordinates @ bottom right of the image is highlighted. Sort of like Rutog and Ngari.

Image

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Manish_Sharma » 07 Jul 2020 03:34

TWITTER

@ShivAroor wrote:
97 days after this banner headline, the 1962 war happened.

Banner IMAGE: (Newspaper Headlines 15,July,1962)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcPcEKzWkAMwniL?format=jpg&name=small

https://twitter.com/ShivAroor/status/12 ... 8652811275

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Raveen » 07 Jul 2020 04:05

Manish_Sharma wrote:TWITTER

@ShivAroor wrote:
97 days after this banner headline, the 1962 war happened.

Banner IMAGE: (Newspaper Headlines 15,July,1962)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcPcEKzWkAMwniL?format=jpg&name=small

https://twitter.com/ShivAroor/status/12 ... 8652811275



This is certainly not over - not by any stretch of imagination. The Chinaman didn't come prodding to walk back whimpering at less than a 100 soldiers lost. They don't value human lives, this isn't over.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Anoop » 07 Jul 2020 04:18

Members here believe that the lessons to be learned from this stand-off are that we must improve our MIC and our procurement process. Those lessons are always valid, no matter what the situation. The question is - are we abjuring the use of firearms now because we are at a manpower and armament disadvantage on the border? I don't believe so.

To me the lessons to be learned from this stand-off are that we must accelerate our infrastructure buildup, particularly last mile connectivity. This includes all weather roads, winter housing for troops, hyperbaric chambers, POL depots, sheltered ammunition dumps, radar sites, SAM sites, UAV recce and the induction of an LUH capability in numbers to allow the permanent stationing of troops on critical heights. Furthermore, we must start actively breaking the border management agreements of 1993, 1996 and 2003 when it comes to patrolling. We must put permanent, defensible structures on land claimed by Chinese and we must do so every summer, starting earlier and earlier each year. This must be backed up by all-year deployments in shallow rear areas that allow us to reinforce these outposts when they are discovered. Our claim lines must continue to creep Eastwards and Northwards in Aksai Chin. The Chinese claim that the LAC is unsettled. We should agree with them and keep extending our claims at each opportunity.

When a patrol clash appears imminent, immediately fall back and resort to the use of firearms to eliminate the threat from a distance.

China's policy of 2 steps forward, 1 step back should be stopped with an overwhelming shock to their system. If they want to militarize and hold the border all year long to prevent that in future, they are welcome. That plays to our strength of shorter lines of communication compared to theirs.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 07 Jul 2020 04:21

https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/12 ... 8139042822
An Integrated Situation Map visualising the current #China line of communication across #AksaiChin connecting key #IndiaChinaStandOff positions, including supply lines & currently known PLA camps - with inputs from @SimTack

Image

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 07 Jul 2020 04:27

pankajs wrote:https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3091844/did-china-miscalculate-rise-india
Did China miscalculate the rise of India?
While Beijing may hope to thwart New Delhi’s efforts to catch up with China on infrastructure construction in border areas, the most challenging part for Beijing is to maintain the pressure without triggering an armed conflict, which would lead to the nightmare of a two-front war with both the US and India.

Even if China could defeat and contain India through a war, the pay-off for China would remain minimal because it wouldn’t address China’s key external security challenges in the Pacific,” Sun said. “Instead, a breakdown in ties with New Delhi would only further expose Beijing in its primary theatre vis-à-vis the US.”

Even if China wins at LAC the payoff will be minimal negative.

1. China will loose the Indian public/market, the ONLY major market that will grow substantially over the next 20-30 years.

2. China will poke/prod into action its only neighbour that can grow and challenge its dominance in the long-term.

3. China will end up pushing the most pivotal power in Asia into the arms of a waiting America in the short-term.

a. All of the above will lead to a nightmarish scenario for China in the near, medium & long term. Who's bright idea was the latest pinprick?

b. China has to finesse its approach to India to enable it to {teach India a lesson / show India its place / keep India under stress} at the same time not push it far enough for it to walk over to the enemy camp.

c. However, fate had a different plan. The Galwan incident changed the game.

https://twitter.com/gchikermane/status/ ... 6473242625
What has China gained from its Ladakh misadventure so far?
Nothing.

What has China lost?
1. Indian consumers.
2. Indian companies.
3. Indian market.
4. India's trust.
One commentary that I read on the statement released by the Chinese on Boder SR talks was to the effect that China wanted Indian GOI to "control" the anti-China sentiment and protect Chinese investments in India. :rotfl:

I forgot to make a note of the commentary else I would have posted the original comments.
Last edited by pankajs on 07 Jul 2020 04:29, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby KL Dubey » 07 Jul 2020 04:28

vijayk wrote:
PLA is improving upon their plans every time.

We are stuck clueless and act stunned even after 3 years. it is same story every time.

True we improved border infra in the last 6 years but no plan to anticipate what enemy will do in 3 years.


Can we please skip this "self-flagellation in the guise of straight talk" and discuss the future constructively ? We are winning this round of conflict.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby KL Dubey » 07 Jul 2020 04:37

Mukesh.Kumar wrote:
Deans wrote:
Mukesh ji, I'm glad you posted this. I would personally have liked to reply to all the posts of liberating GB / POK or Tibet as `neither possible nor desirable', for pretty much the same reasons you elaborated on.
There is a great deal we can do to harm Pak and China, even with all the deficiencies we have, but this is not one of them.


Thank you sir for putting in a few lines what took me three long posts to convey.

It's not that I am saying that liberation of Tibet or GB will be impossible. A $10 trillion economy can make many things,which seem fanciful today, come within our grasp. As long as there is realism and planning. But for the moment let's keep aside these fanciful notions.

And yes our objective should be to cause them real hurt with final goal being reclaiming these lands. For example can you imagine what a USD 1 bil p.a. investment in fifth column activities in POK/ GB can do? If GoI actually ran the numbers then the conviction for doing this would be much stronger.


Please try to understand. The Chinese deployment is not some "far-sighted plan" hatched after Doklam, on the contrary it is an attempt to delay India's plans to move into POK and GB. Our intention has been made very clear by several moves starting from re-organization of JK and Ladakh onwards.

Conflating Tibet and GB is to create a straw man. There is no doubt that even southern Tibet cannot be liberated without an all-out war, nobody is planning on doing that. However GB and POK are eminently doable. The Chinese are trying to put a spanner in the works and are desperate to save their decades-long investment in Pak.

I would say we should now:

1) Ramp up our aggressive deployment posture on these areas, now that we know the extent of Chinese worry on this.

2) Formally bundle China+Pak as one adversary. Going after Pak is going after China, and vice versa. Forget "2-front" doctrine...its a single front across which we face a motley crowd of barbarians: Pak brown-pants, PLA gooks, jihadis, "irregulars" etc etc.

3) Therefore, open all options: IOR including Arabian sea harassment, Pak airspace disruptions, Baloch insurgency ramp-up, and continued economic warfare against China, political and diplomatic coordination with everyone willing to help.
Last edited by KL Dubey on 07 Jul 2020 04:50, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 07 Jul 2020 04:47

https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... r-6490606/
As tensions soared after Galwan, Pompeo made quiet call to Jaishankar
The US has conveyed, publicly and privately, its steadfast support to South Block amid the tensions along the LAC. This has been matched by optics and some substantive cooperation at the operational level too.

The Sunday Express has learnt that the Indian side has got a “good sense” of the build-up of troops and weapons on the Chinese side of the LAC because of the close information-sharing cooperation with the US.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Cain Marko » 07 Jul 2020 05:12

Mukesh.Kumar wrote:

Mukeshji, thank you for the detailed posts and your perspective. I will try to address the main points therein:

My posts regarding India's GB options had three main objectives:
1. Take over the regions if possible, if not
2. Take over key nodes if possible, if not
3. Ensure that TSP-Chicom access to said points becomes untenable

For now, let us focus on #2, which is where most of your writing would find context. While I agree that it would be difficult, I would imagine that much of the trouble would be avoided with the element of surprise on India's side (for once). Do note that surgical strikes in Uri and Balakote would've presented proportionately difficult choices as well. The end result was quite lopsided - in India's favor. I'm willing to bet that one can expect similar a result wrt GB as well. Neither the Pakis nor the Chinese have shown any gumption when it comes to taking one in the gut in all these years.

This implies that the IAF will need to have complete air dominance over PAF in the region and our ability to suppress MANPADS around airfields in the region.

Yes. That is true. At least to the extent that PAF cannot carry out any transport activities, let alone fighter sorties. But I don't see why this is impossible. Manpads can be an issue but I'm counting on the surprise to work at least initially, preventing them from regrouping meaningfully.

A slug fight to defeat these troops is not in our best interest. Our assault needs to shock, decapitate command structures and bewilder the enemy into surrendering. Going out on a limb, I would hypothesize a missile barrage and IAF bombing to take out command centers, communications and eliminate at least 50% of the enemy (mostly the army).....troops dropped into GB within a couple of hours (at least taking over airfields and road nodes) focusing on Skardu, Gilgit, Sost, Gajkuch, Danyor, Chilas, Astore. Later troops can spread out to take over rural areas (thankfully, with sparse population, it may be possible to focus on rural areas later). Crucial success factor will be intelligence and having locals friendly to Indian interests (particularly among tribals).

I mostly agree with the highlighted part. And would say that targets should just be a couple of places (Gilgit and Skardu?) preventing the need to spread out the attack and therefore the number of troops as well. A joint operation in PoK with adequate surgical strikes might further aid in securing said nodes.

Ok, now that we have defined the magnitude of the problem, let’s look into one aspect to explore further. We calculated 30,000 troops to be airdropped, airlifted to GB. That using Boeing C17’s or C130J’s represent 300 or 500 sorties respectively. Now, I would envision the airborne corps something like the Russian 7th Guards Mountain Air Assault Division, operating in principle like Mechanized infantry who are transported by air (refer herefor why I envision this)


Where does the calculation of 30K troops come from? Is it because that is approximately what the TSP can muster? Note that India can easily game incursions and airdrops based upon the effect of the initial shock and awe. If the missile strike and IAF domination goes as per plan and the IAF can impose a NFZ, I'd expect very little real resistance in the following hours/days by the TSP and its goons. They will be scattered and their ability to regroup will be in a shambles. Getting reinforcements from Peshawar is very unlikely since it is a convoluted and longer distance (say as compared to Kargil) and open to strikes at key nodes that will totally block advancement.

I'd say that after sufficient degradation has happened there wouldn't be a need for as many personnel as 30k. If India can get a 10th of that within the first few days adequately supplied, I can't see why these can't be held for as long as needed. Note that India managed Tangail with 700 troops and artillery support within a day. I'd venture that IAF capability today is a lot more. The key is total domination of the airspace.

a. Pakistan has the ability to surge troops to the region. As much as possible we need to keep them off-guard and off-balance till the beginning of the airborne invasion. That would mean that we should be able to engage them south in Punjab or Rajasthan to keep them off balance. A thrust to heart of Punjab, seaborne assault on Karachi and Gwadar, and threat of an amphibious assault in the Rann to keep them off-balance. Therefore we need to build the capability of this airborne invasion as additional to fighting a hot war with Pakistan.

Where is the surge coming from? Peshawar is the closest and like I said earlier, the road is not easy. TSP troops in the area need to supplied and this is only possible via road. If we cut this off, we can take our time in squeezing them dry. Opening up a front or threatening to do so along different places in the northern front will provide enough difficulty for the TSP to really want to pursue the retaking of GB. At how many places can they respond and how easily? WIll they attack directly across the border and truly escalate? Does TSP really want to engage more substantially - where the IAF and IN now have a free hand to attack their air assets at will? I'm not sure at all. There is a distinct possibility that they can lose all their AF in a very short time.
We need to keep China out of the picture. Difficult as they will see danger to their CPEC investments, and will intervene. Even a few sorties by the PLAAF will put paid to the invasion. So, we need to deter the Chinese.

A few sorties? What kind of sorties are these? And where are they coming from? Does Chicom want to get involved in this scrap, which it has not planned for? When Have they shown any such willingness to get into nasty surprises in a hurry? Consider that we still would outnumber them in the East. Easier said than done sir. But having said this, India can reassure them that their infrastructure and such will be allowed to operate (so long as they don't interfere) and at least until we decide otherwise.

Finally, we'll talk costs:
Once we add in equipment, the number of sorties easily doubles to 600 (this is an approximation but I used similar from the Center 2019 Russian exercise numbers to come up with ballpark numbers). So, if we are operating only C-17’s, and assuming that on the first day each aircraft puts in three sorties, you would still need 200 odd aircraft dedicated to this task. This is assuming 100% serviceability, no losses. Just the air transport component would cost USD 44 bn (USD 55 bn for C130J’s). And this is much more than current capability (for comparison we recently carried out ourbiggest airborne exercise for 500 SF personnel) . Where's the planning for this?

Throwing in all other costs, liberation of GB, this way would cost us at least USD 150 bn?

This assumes a far larger number of troops than I proposed. Let's take an example closer to home - Tangail:

The paratroopers, numbering 700 and led by Lt Col Kulwant Singh Pannu was reinforced by an artillery battery, an engineering detachment, an ADS, a surgical team and other administrative troops from 50th (Independent) Parachute Brigade.....The Tangail Airdrop operation involved An-12, C-119s, 2 Caribous and Dakotas from 11 sqn and 48 Sqn. The IAF also carried out feint drops using dummies dropped from Caribou aircraft to hide the true location and extent of the operation. The only hitch was a Hangup from the lead Dakota. One Paratrooper had a static line hangup, who, after carrying out emergency procedures, was dropped safely about 50 miles away.

https://www.aviation-defence-universe.com/tangail-airdrop-landmark-operation-1971-indo-pak-war/

I'd say a number of about 3 x this size should do the trick. After that the idea is to hold and secure the airbridge. Economically, this provides a very serious option to trigger a war economy and an associated private MIC that everyone here hankers for. Not very different from what Roosevelt achieved by entering WWII. The numbers would far exceed anything in terms of costs and revenues generated from GB alone. And the strategic independence and other advantages it would buy are incalculable. Since the region is legitimately India's, there is enough justification for such action.

Even if all of this is purely fantasy, there is always option #3 as listed in the early part of the post. If we can't control GB, nor can they. Chipak can forget CPEC in that region. We will bomb and trash thier attempts wherever/whenever we feel like.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby rajpa » 07 Jul 2020 06:53

--self deleted

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby banrjeer » 07 Jul 2020 07:12

Arabian Sea harassment may incur the max cost to the enemy. it should be gamed. It can be seasonal, summer they send beards, winter endya throttles/encroaches sea routes to check "suspicious activities that may arise"

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby samirdiw » 07 Jul 2020 08:08

Mukesh.Kumar wrote:It's not that I am saying that liberation of Tibet or GB will be impossible. A $10 trillion economy can make many things,which seem fanciful today, come within our grasp.


Mukesh, thanks very much for the wonderful analysis. Whether that $150 Billion is on the lower side or higher is not the point. The more important thing is an attempt at an objective analysis. I have tried to do a similar analysis to stalemate the Chinese but it doesn't take into account the troop cost and probably very amateurish.

Request you to kindly create similar analysis for military action for taking over half of historical Tibet. Reason: It will be the only long term acceptable solution for both sides without threats to its mainland assuming India also takes it security as seriously as China.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby williams » 07 Jul 2020 08:10

Mukesh.Kumar wrote:
williams wrote:
Mukesh Ji very good writeup on the logistics required to take over GB. The key take away from your post is that it is impossible for the Pakis to do the reverse. So then the question comes how a two-front war will succeed if the objective is to take over Ladakh or J&K for that matter. It seems more like one front war with troops tied up to defend the other front.


Sir, it's not possible for Pakistan to take away Ladakh through a land grab. Salami slicing/ "aman ka tamasha" accompanied by our naivette, yes.

I am not clear about what you mean buy the last two sentences. Mind elaborating a little?


I am saying if the Chinese opt for a shooting war, the terrain in Ladakh and J&K does not allow a 2 front offensive from Pakis and the Chinese at the same time. Pakis can do something only further south through the IB. That means we might have some troops tied up in the west to defend and focus on the Chinese side for offensive operations. So this threat of 2 front war is not as big as it seems after reading your post and looking at the maps.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby k prasad » 07 Jul 2020 09:46

nachiket wrote:Their intrusion at PP-14 was some 400 odd meters into our side of the LAC. If they move back 2km, that means they will have to move back further into their own side.


Do we have a OSINT map of the indian LAC claim line? I know the Chinese refuse to release their own claim line except in windows-style annual updates.

Right now, I'm relying on Google Maps delineation of the LAC, and I have no clue how they came up with it, so I don't trust its veracity except in the general sense.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Roop » 07 Jul 2020 10:10

KL Dubey wrote:
vijayk wrote:
PLA is improving upon their plans every time.

We are stuck clueless and act stunned even after 3 years. it is same story every time.

True we improved border infra in the last 6 years but no plan to anticipate what enemy will do in 3 years.


Can we please skip this "self-flagellation in the guise of straight talk" and discuss the future constructively ? We are winning this round of conflict.


Thank you for this comment. Sometimes the whining and dhoti-shivering get so hard to take.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nachiket » 07 Jul 2020 10:12

k prasad wrote:Right now, I'm relying on Google Maps delineation of the LAC, and I have no clue how they came up with it, so I don't trust its veracity except in the general sense.

I posted a few ss from Google maps earlier in this thread. Google seems to be showing the Chinese claim line as the LAC at least in some parts. Especially problematic in Depsang area. Even at Pangong Tso they show the LAC passing through Finger 4 or close to it.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ManuJ » 07 Jul 2020 10:32

Anoop wrote:To me the lessons to be learned from this stand-off are that we must accelerate our infrastructure buildup, particularly last mile connectivity. This includes all weather roads, winter housing for troops, hyperbaric chambers, POL depots, sheltered ammunition dumps, radar sites, SAM sites, UAV recce and the induction of an LUH capability in numbers to allow the permanent stationing of troops on critical heights.

Anoop, you're absolutely right. But this has already been happening since Modi 1.0 and all the indications are that the pace will increase now. The thing is, there are no special interests at play here - no multi-billion dollar contracts at stake for the foreign suppliers, no public enterprise monopolies threatened - and thus it's relatively easy, politically speaking, to implement these measures on the ground.
Where India always seems to falter is in taking the politically hard decisions - in managing and countering the special interests, lobbies, unions etc. and instead furthering the national cause. Everyone knows what the right thing to do is, but somehow no-one seems to actually do it. It often takes a national crisis to break down the inertia and get the ball rolling, and I'm hoping this time the crisis will will become the catalyst for the rejuvenation of India's MIC.


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